Let’s see where the hat goes today…

Oh, these guys.

New York Yankees

The Yankees again won their division and again were knocked out of the playoffs.  But instead of splurging on expensive free agents like Barry Zito and others, the Yankees instead showed restrain, dealing Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield for prospects that are able to contribute soon.  Though they did spend on some nice things (Kei Igawa and Andy Pettitte), this Yankee team seems to be determined to depend more on the youth in the system instead of players from former competitors that would cost a pretty penny to acquire.  Whether or not this will mean a return to the World Series remains to be seen.

Starting Rotation

1. Chien Ming Wang (RHP) – Wang emerged as the Yankees’ ace last season and not only put up a Cy Young caliber season, but he was also very durable and was dominant in the post-season.  Wang will head up the Yankees’ staff this season, but I’m not sold on him staying durable for the entire season.  Expect a missed start or two, but expect a good season from him as well.
2. Mike Mussina (RHP) – Moose returns on a bargain basement contract to help bolster the Yankees rotation and finally win himself a ring.  Moose still can eat up innings and will keep his team in games, but his stuff is starting to decline a bit.  However, his control is still superb, helping to counterbalance the loss in raw power.  Moose should be good to go, but again, as with Wang and new rotation mate Pettitte, Mussina will likely miss a start or two.
3. Andy Pettitte (LHP) – Pettitte returns to New York (he should have never left, but take that issue up with Steinbrenner) after three years in Houston.  Pettitte isn’t the same pitcher he was with the Yankees during the Dynasty, but he’s still very good and will be a solid middle of the rotation presence for New York.  The problem is that Pettitte is beginning to experience some durability issues, making it almost certain he’ll miss a start or two this year.
4. Carl Pavano (RHP) – Depending on Pavano this high in the rotation is a stretch, with the problems that he’s had, plus the fact he hasn’t pitched in over a year at the major league level.  For all I know, he could be a comeback player of the year candidate.  But the odds are a lot higher that Pavano should go back to the National League, in which case the Rockies figure to come calling, a deal that could work out well for New York, as the Rockies have some positional players that the Yankees would need to help replace some of their own soon.
5. Kei Igawa (LHP) – Igawa is the other major Japanese import that got a lot of attention this past season.  Igawa isn't the stud that Matsuzaka is; in fact, there's doubt that Igawa will be anything more than a competent setup man or middle reliever.  But the Igawa did lead his league in strikeouts and posted an ERA in the mid 3 region or so.For now, Igawa is going to be in the rotation as the number five starter.

Bullpen

• Mariano Rivera (Closer) – Rivera enters what could be his final season as a Yankee, as concerns about his age and durability are starting to come into the conversation, despite another season in which he could have been considered for a Cy Young Award.  Rivera should again be solid, provided he’s not abused by Joe Torre after he loses confidence in yet another reliever.
• Kyle Farnsworth (Setup Man) – Farnsworth was less than satisfactory as a setup man, and definitely didn’t provide the security the Yankees hoped for in case Rivera went down.  
• Scott Proctor (RHP) – Proctor was a solid reliever, but he’s absolutely abused by Joe Torre last season, leading relievers in innings logged.  He’s going to have some setback this year as the fatigue from last year comes back to bite him, but that’s not a reason to give up on him.  He’s going to have a bright future, possibly as Rivera’s heir (unless they make the incredibly stupid decision to go after Frankie Rodriguez when he hits the market.)
• Mike Myers (LHP) – The bullpen’s lone lefty is really only a one out guy.  That’s bad.
• Darrell Rasner (RHP) – Ranser was pretty good in some starts, but was also very good in relief.  The Yankees hope that this former Nationals farmhand will eventually be a fifth starter/swingman.  Stuffwise, Rasner gets decent movement on his 90-mph fastball and showed an improved curve last season. 
• Luis Vizcaino (RHP) – Vizcaino joins his fourth team in four seasons, as Arizona acquired him in the December 2005 deal that sent Javier Vazquez to the White Sox.  Vizcaino is a power pitcher who can struggle with his command at times and could help bolster the setup corps.
• Brian Bruney (RHP) – Bruney was obtained off of the Diamondback’s scrap heap and was dominant in 19 games last season.  I like him to make the squad, as I think that he could be a great setup man in the future.

Starting Lineup

1. Johnny Damon (CF) – Damon was a solid presence in the Yankee lineup last season, hitting well at leadoff while showing some power at the top as well.  Damon was also solid at centerfield last season, vastly improving the outfield defense that had been declining for several years as Bernie Williams began to decline.  Damon should be solid, but his terrible September bears some notice, be it from the toll that his style of play takes on him or from nagging injuries.  Hence, it’s best that the Yankees be careful with him, as he’s not getting any younger.
2. Derek Jeter (SS) – Jeter had a solid season last season, staying in contention for a batting title as well as an MVP award for most of the season until a pair of Twins made off with both.  Jeter would have sacrificed them both for a chance to go to another World Series, which didn’t happen.  Jeter should again be solid at the second spot, and his defense will again be Golden (pun intended), but the A-Rod situation bears watching, as I firmly believe that Jeter should have spoke up last season to defend his teammate, as he did with Chuck Knoblauch and Jason Giambi.  There comes a certain point in time where you have to put some animosities behind you and do what you have to in order to help the team.  That’s what comes with being a Captain.  And that’s precisely what Jeter failed to do.
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B) – In Rodriguez’s defense, he had a solid year last year, hitting. 290 with 35 Homers and 121 RBI’s.  However, his defense slipped last season, whether it was due to psychological issues or something else and he’s got to strongly work to get himself back to where he was on defense.  He’s still a capable offensive player and is in his prime, but Yankee fans are hard on Rodriguez, largely because they view him as a mercenary type player and not a “True Yankee” (whatever the #### that means.)  A lot of Rodriguez’s flak he causes himself (life coach, his OCD like desire to keep a squeaky clean image), but some of it could have been diffused by Jeter, which wasn’t.  Regardless of all that, Rodriguez will be under a bigger microscope this season because of his agent, who put in an Opt Out Clause that would allow him to opt out of his contract after the 2007 season (which I fully would have expected him to exercise had he remained in Texas.)  We’ll see what happens…
4. Jason Giambi (DH) – This is one contract New York would want back.  When signed, it was hoped that Giambi would be able to provide the offensive firepower to replace Tino Martinez at first.  Five years, one return of Martinez, a stomach parasite and a mysterious apology later, Giambi is now a DH, as his defense has regressed from “bad” to “horrific.”   A .253 hitter in 139 games for New York last year, Giambi is also starting to wear down and hasn’t played a full season in years.  Though the Yankees hope he’ll become their version of David Ortiz, it’s likely that Giambi will play 120 to 130 games, the other 32 games being interleague or games where Matsui or Abreu are in the lineup to allow Melky Cabrera to play. 
5. Hideki Matsui (LF) – Matsui may actually be better suited in right, as his arm isn’t the strongest, but this is where he’s listed and where he’s likely to remain.  Matsui was limited to 51 games after a fluke wrist injury, but he came back and hit well.  He’s not a guy who has a ton of power, but another 20 homer season with over 100 RBI’s in the lineup isn’t unreasonable to expect from him. 
6. Bobby Abreu (RF) – A classic throwback to the Yankees of the 90’s, Abreu works the count, takes walks, hits for contact and some power and plays a good right field, plus has some speed on the baselines.  In Philly, Abreu was depended on to be a run producer.  Here, Abreu is allowed to do his thing.  The best part is, the Yankees got him for pocket change.  He’s a steal and another solid bat in the linep.
7. Jorge Posada (C) – Posada had a solid year least year, putting up his best numbers since 2003.  Posada is still a solid defensive catcher, but at his age, the Yankees need to start searching for his successor, as he’s going to start declining seriously after this year.  As far as his long term future is concerned, Posada could switch to backup catcher/DH, but the DH spot filled by Giambi, meaning that the Yankees are going to have to make a hard decision as soon as the year is up.
8. Robinson Cano (2B) – How often do you find a guy hitting 8th in the lineup contending for a batting title?  Only in New York.  Cano has become a solid young player, playing a solid second base while looking like a player that will hit over .300 for his career.  Cano also has some thunder in his bat, plus can steal a few.  He should be hitting toward the top of the order.  But in this lineup, he adds some much dreaded depth.
9. Doug Mientkiewicz (1B) – Minky was brought aboard to play first mostly on his defensive skills.  While the decision remains questionable, as Mientkiewicz has regressed a bit defensively over the years, the question remains whether or not he’ll hit and be no better than the pitcher at the 9th spot.  Plus there’s the injury factor to take into consideration as well.  We’ll see how this works out.

Bench

• Melky Cabrera (OF) – Cabrera was a revelation last season, stepping in after Gary Sheffield, then Matsui went down, and provided a spark of life not seen in the Yankees in some time.  Cabrera doesn’t hit for a ton of power, but he’s got some solid hitting ability and is good in the field.  The Yankees will keep him with the big club because he can play all three outfield positions, but long term, he’s going to be a regular in one of the corners.
• Miguel Cairo (UTIL) – Cairo can’t hit worth a damn, but his main value is that he’s so versatile.  Cairo can play second base, shortstop and third base well, while is a passable defender at first and in the outfield. 
• Josh Phelps (1B) – Will likely make the team, or New York wouldn’t have spent the money on him during the Rule V Draft.  Phelps has the potential to hit for some power and can play a decent first base.  He’s at the very least a better option over perennial underachiever Andy Phillips.
• Wil Nieves (C) – The favorite to win the backup catcher job, Nieves is a powerless hitter that can hit for average while performing well above average behind the bag.  But he’s not an heir to Posada by any means.

Down On The Farm…

The Yankees have managed to acquire quite a bit of talent in recent years, mostly due to their spending big on talents that have fallen in the draft due to signability, plus some good scouting on the international market.  The recent trades have also bolstered their pool of talent, which is now regarded to be some of the best in the majors.  However, there’s a problem; most of the talent is pitching.  Outside of Jose Tabata, who is years from contributing to the big club, there are almost no hitters.

• Philip Hughes (RHP) – Hughes is the best pitching prospect in the game.  He’s not only got size, but he’s got the mound presence to go with it.  His stuff is ace quality, starting with a mid 90’s fastball with good movement and a hard curveball that is major league ready.  He’s got a decent changeup and his mechanics are almost flawless.  He hasn’t proven that he can handle a major league workload yet, as the Yankees have been careful with him, but Hughes was dominant last year, enough that all of baseball has now taken notice of him.  Though the Yankees want Hughes to spend at least one more year at Triple A, a dominant Spring Training could make one of the starters expendable.  And even then, he’ll be in the Stadium by September.
• Chris Britton (RHP) – Obtained for Jaret Wright from the Orioles, Britton will likely become a part of the Yankees’ future bullpen.  Britton has a low 90’s fastball and a nice, tight curve and throws for strikes.  The only problem is that he’s been injury prone in his career and is a big man, if you know what I mean.  Still, he’s got a future with the Yankees as they try to get young and save up their pennies for some of the bigger free agents coming down the road (cough *Johan Santana* cough.)
• Sean Henn (LHP) – Henn isn’t looked at as a starter anymore, but he could be a solid lefty reliever and could displace Mike Myers if Henn is able to strikeout righties as well as lefties.
• Russ Ohlendorf (RHP) – Obtained from the Diamondbacks in the Randy Johnson Trade, Ohlendorf went 10-8, 3.29 with a 125 K’s and 29 walks in 27 starts at Double A Tennessee. He’s got great size and his stuff isn’t bad.  He throws a hard 89-94 mph sinker, a solid changeup and a decent slider.  Lefties murder him, and because of his slider, he may be better off in the pen.
• Stephen Jackson (RHP) – Another good sized right hander that has some solid stuff.  However, unlike Ohlendorf, who can at least entertain notions of being a starter, Jackson’s future is definitely in the pen, as he’s got four pitches, but only two, a sinker and a slider, are major league worthy.
• Eric Duncan (1B) – Duncan was a first round pick that New York may have ruined due to their aggressive promotion of him last year.  Duncan should have remained in Trenton instead of being sent to Columbus last year and getting demoted and the prospect that returned to Double A was shell-shocked enough that he needed time to recover from the experience.  Duncan is still young and the power potential is still there, but it’s beginning to look like he may be a bust.  Duncan will remain in Triple A, but a solid season could earn him a call up, be it as a regular or as a possible trade piece.
• Humberto Sanchez (RHP) – A big pitcher, Sanchez was the jewel of the trade that sent Sheffield to Detroit.  Sanchez has good arm strength and his stuff is great.  His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and touches 97-98, and his slider gives him a second plus pitch.  However, Sanchez has some durability issues, as he’s never thrown more than 123 innings in a season due to various injuries and conditioning issues.  Sanchez will be a Triple A, but could get a look as the season progresses.
• J. Brent Cox (RHP) – Another possible heir to Rivera, Cox is a polished college reliever who dominated Double A as a closer.  Cox induces groundballs thanks to his 88-92 mph sinker and hard-tilting slider, and he’s got a quick delivery as well.  However, many feel that Cox lacks pure dominating stuff and he may be better off as a setup man.

In Conclusion…

The Yankees have enough talent to win the division.  Whether or not the talent is enough to advance to the next round is a difference story…

Final Standing:  First In The American League East.

Well, a second Japanese Pitcher has crossed over, as the Yankees bid $25 million for the bidding rights to Kei Igawa, another highly regarded player from the Japanese league. 

Igawa, viewed by the Yankees as a more affordable option (though that arguement goes out the window when you consider the salary plus posting fee) than going after Ted Lilly, is not as highly regarded as Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Several talent evaluators raked their heads when informed the Yankees' winning bid was $26 million for a pitcher many believe is no more than a fourth starter.  Still, Igawa will likely land a four- to five-year deal in the $5 million per season range, is going to be in the Yankees' rotation

Getting a deal done shouldn't be anywhere near the problem that the Red Sox are going through with Daisuke Matsuzaka and his nutty agent, Scott Boras.  Igawa wants to pitch for the Yankees and is represented by Arn Tellem, who has a strong relationship with the Yankees since his client list includes Hideki Matsui, Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi.  

Now, what exactly did the Yankees buy?

ESPN's Keith Law reported the following:

One of the best left-handed starters in Japan, Igawa wasn't expected to come over this winter as a free agent, but his current employer, the Hanshin Tigers, apparently made an about-face and posted him. Igawa is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, with a below-average fastball in the 84-88 mph range with a little run, and a plus 74-79 mph curveball with a late two-plane break. He has a slight stabbing motion at the start of his delivery, but stays on top of the ball well, giving the curve its good depth and creating some downhill plane to his otherwise flat fastball. He also has average command and plus control.

The downside to Igawa is that his fastball may be a little short for MLB hitters, in which case, he'll end up a reliever, and probably a good one with that plus curve as a lefty-killing weapon. (He does throw an occasional changeup, but prefers to use his curve to get righties out as well.) The upside would be if his quick delivery makes the ball hard enough for hitters to pick up that his fastball plays up to average, in which case he could certainly pitch in the back end of an NL rotation. He's also an ideal candidate to learn a splitter, although that's a common pitch in Asia and it would be a surprise if he hadn't already tried one.

Still, despite Law's rather down analysis, Igawa has had results.  He was 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA last year and 86-60 with a 3.15 career ERA. 

As far as where he fits with the Yankees, Igawa will likely be the fourth or fifth starter, as the Yankees will have a one-two-three punch of Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson.  How high Igawa will rise in the rotation will deal with how well he outperforms Carl Pavano.

All in all, it's a gamble that only the Yankees would think of, though who knows?  Igawa may just be good enough for the Yankees that they won't have to worry about the back end of the rotation for a while.