The problems with rushing draft picks, Southside Eckstein, Pods Back On The Market, and the Price On Dontrelle Willis.

The Problems With Rushing Draft Picks

One of the things that I’m noticing in recent years is the rushing of draft picks.

Usually, this is done with relievers, who are viewed to be almost ready made, a practice that has gone back since the Nationals brought up Chad Cordero months after being drafted.  However, this practice is taking it's toll on the prospects, mostly because teams feel that these college kids should be ready to start immediately.

This has recently been found out the hard way by the Detroit Tigers, who are now paying the price of rushing Andrew Miller, who has been awful his last few starts.  The warning signs were there with Miller, who has walked more batters than he struck out and was regarded to be still raw coming out of college.

A better example would be Craig Hansen and Joey Devine, two players selected in the 2005 draft that were called up to the Majors quickly.  Too quickly.

Devine was destroyed in limited time with the Braves and only recently has begun to show signs of coming out of his shellacking.  Hansen isn't as fortunate and is in danger of possibly being dealt or cut by the Red Sox, who made the mistake of calling him up too soon.

Often times Clubs will be a bit overdependant on their system to provide them with help in their hours of need, oftentimes too soon for the kids to do much good.

And often times, those kids may never recover.

So, let it be a lesson, even a cautionary tale, of why sometimes you might need to look elsewhere rather than within, less you render your own internal asset useless for the rest of the future.

Eckstein Southside?  Sounds Like A Disaster.

According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, shortstop David Eckstein has become the top off-season target of the White Sox, who are now tired of Juan Uribe’s lack of production (is it possible to be out hit by Adam Kennedy?  It’s starting to look like it.) 

I’m not sure if that’s a great idea, even if the shortstop market is looking dismal.  Eckstein will be 33 heading into next season, and he’s begun to break down, with more and more time on the DL due to injuries.  Big money would be a mistake, especially when you consider that Eckstein lacks lower and as a leadoff man is very depended on slapping the ball and hoping his speed will let him beat it out.  That’s not going to last much longer, especially as he begins to lose speed next year.

Another nugget to consider is that Eckstein may be classified as a Type A Free Agent, and would warrent the White Sox surrendering their Second Round Pick, something that the Whtie Sox may give pause to, especially as they begin what is likely a rebuilding process that will require all the high picks it needs.

The White Sox, really, should begin to look around at the various farm systems in the league (Kenny Williams has scouted several systems and knows the prospects he wants from each one religiously) to see if there is any way to net a shortstop prospect that is near ready, but blocked.  A young player would be much better as it would give the White Sox payroll flexability and the potential to groom another face of the franchise around them.

Pods Back On The Market

Scott Podsednik is going to be available soon.

The White Sox have begun playing Josh Fields in left field.  This likely means that

Joe Crede will be brought back for his final season.

Podsednik is out of a job, as the White Sox have fallen in love with Darin Erstad (big mistake) as their fourth outfielder.

Does Pods have any value?

Some, but not enough to start him.  He'd make a decent fourth outfielder on a team that has several established ones and he's got the speed to be a decent pinch runner.  With his stock down, his price will be cheap as well.

Pods has really had only one good year, but beyond that, he's prett y much useless as a starter.

And to think, I got the most hate mail over my view of Pods as a backup.

Heh.

The Price On Dontrelle

Dontrelle Willis has had a difficult season in Florida, and with his price increase coming in arbitration, followed by Miguel Cabera's impending raise, Willis could finally be out there for the taking.

The Marlins have kinda messed up this situation a bit, as Willis was at the peak of his value last off-season and would have netted a nice haul.  However, Willis has lost some of his luster and teams may be less willing to give up the farm for him.

However, there still will be a great deal of suitors, as Willis is a power pitching lefty on the right side of 30 and has a reputation for being a horse as well as an innings eater.  Someone will bite.

The Marlins have indicated that they want pitching and catching in return in exchange for Willis.  Is there a match?

Somewhat.

The Mariners have catching prospect Jeff Clement to offer up and potentially Wladmir Baltentin, a centerfielder, that they could offer back, but no real pitching of consequnce.

The Mets could offer up an outfield prospect and potenitlally Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey, but no real catching prospects exist in that organization.

The Rangers could offer back Gerald Laird, who has been displaced by Saltalamacchia, but the Marlins would demand Salty instead, along with top prospect Eric Hurley, a package that would scare off the Rangers.

The Yankees will likely be mentioned, but will only offer up end of the rotation starters such as Tyler Clippard and Jeff Marquez, while the Marlins would demand either Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain.

The Dodgers could be interested, but their only real prospect of value of Clayton Kershaw and he's untouchable.

Perhaps the Rockies and Diamondbacks, teams in need of starting pitching, could make an offer with some of their depth of positional prospects, but no pitching options are available to make a fit possible.

The Marlins are thus in a touchy spot.  They could let Willis leave after this year and reap the two comp draft picks, but if he's signed by a crappy team, all they'll get is a second rounder and a sandiwch pick.  If they trade him, they'll want to get what Willis was worth last season, and not what he's worth then.

So, it's going to be interesting to see how the Marlins operate this, to put it lightly, delicate situation when they've handled so many of their public relations issues with bazookas.

Friday Morning Closer

2007 Shortstop Class

I thought it would be fun to check out the market for next year's free agent class.  I'll update the list as the season goes on, but first, I figured we'd start with the shortstop market. This class is thin with no real stars and only two players being really of any sort of long-term value.  This class got a lot thinner when Carlos Guillen re-signed wtih the Tigers today.

• Juan Uribe (White Sox) – Uribe is 28 and is going to be a free agent for the first time this season.  He's one of the better defenders in the league and he's got a strong arm and soft hands.  Uribe has some speed, but he's a poor baserunner and gets caught often and he's got poor plate discipline, which negates his above average power for the position.  He's also injury prone, which means that he's almost a lock to miss time.  Uribe isn't likely to be back next season and while he's flawed, he's one of the best long term options available at the position.
• Omar Vizquel (Giants) – Here's another shortstop I'm not sure should be starting much longer.  The Giants seem to be determined to build the oldest roster known to man and the though of extending Vizquel has crossed their minds.  He's an adequate defender (and stole the Gold Glove from Adam Everett) and a decent hitter.  But at the age of 40, how much longer do you want to push your luck?
• Cesar Izturis (Cubs) – [If $5.45MM club option is declined].  One of the most useless stats on a resume is former All-Star, which is used a lot by Cubs media when talking about Izturis .  Mark Redman is a former All-Star.  It doesn't mean I want his #### on my team.  Izturis is a fantastic defender and is quick, but he can't hit to save his life.  He's a backup, but for some reason gets played as a starter.  Someone will take a chance on him, as he's a lot better than the next guy
• Neifi Perez (Tigers) - Perez can play defense, like Izturis, and his bat is questionable as well.  Perez has a higher career batting average,. slugging percetange, On Base Percetnage and OPS than Izturis, but he's also almost six years older than Izturis.  I don't see how he can be a starter anywhere but you never know.
• David Eckstein (Cardinals) – I'm going to get even more Cardinals hate mail than I do already, but what the hell.  Eckstein really isn't a long term option at shortstop anymore.  He's 32 and while he's managed to surpass all the problems had as far as height thanks to a lot of intensity and determination.  However, durability is going to be an issue with him as far as I'm concerned and despite his excellent range at shortstop, he really doesn't have all that strong of an arm.  He does, however, get on base and is willing to do whatever it takes to do it, even if it means getting hit, but Eckstein will be entering his decline phase sooner rather than later.  He may be able to justify a three year deal, but any more is pushing it.

Where Will Rodriguez Land If He Opts Out.

A-Rod and his scuzzy agent appear to be laying the groundwork for an Escape From New York and thus far has attempted to put the onus of the blame on the Yankees if he does leave.  Brian Cashman didn't bite and instead publically stated that while he would love Rodriguez to stay in New York, if he opts out he will not bid for his services, putting Rodriguez back in the drivers seat of the blame train. 

If Rodriguez does leave, where will this Hall Of Fame Headcase go?  Let's take a look...

Here’s Who Won’t Bid On Rodriguez if he opts out:

• Seattle Mariners – The Mariners still haven’t gotten over the fact that A-Rod left them for an insane amount of money.
• Texas Rangers – Ranger fans still won’t let Rodriguez’s demand for a trade, after seeing the team was going to rebuild, go either.
• Arizona Diamondbacks - There isn't a place for him, with Chad Tracy there for the long haul.
• Atlanta Braves - The Braves are having trouble holding onto the talent they have.  Plus, Chipper is there.
• Cincinnati Reds - Uhhh, no.
• Cleveland Indians – The Indians have made it clear that Andy Marte is the future at third for the franchise.
• Colorado Rockies - Garrett Atkins is there and he's not only as productive, he's a lot cheaper as well.
• Florida Marlins – As much as both clubs would like a reunion of Miami’s native son in his hometown team, the Marlins have Miguel Cabrera (for how much longer remains to be seen) at third base and it’s unlikely that a team that has already blown itself up twice for financial reasons will make a strong effort for a $100 million player.
• Kansas City Royals – For once, there is a reason other than financial ones on why the Royals won’t be bidding on Rodriguez.  They have Alex Gordon, a player that already seems a lock for the Hall Of Fame at the end of his career, at third.
• Los Angeles Dodgers - There were rumors that the Dodgers inquired about A-Rod's availability, but acquiring him would mean blocking talented prospect Andy LaRoche.
• Milwaukee Brewers – Ryan Braun is the future at third.  There’s no way Rodriguez has a fit here.
• Minnesota Twins – Umm, no.  Paying through the roof for free agents isn’t the way Minnesota goes about building it’s team.
• New York Yankees – The fans hate him and Yankee management has already made it clear that if Rodriguez opts out, they will not bid for his services.
• Oakland Athletics – Chavo is still at third and besides, it would be unlike Billy Beane to get in on the bidding for him.
• Philadelphia Phillies - If Rodriguez has problems already withthe New York crowd, can you imagine what Philly fans would do to him.  They booed Mike #### Schmidt for crying out loud.
• Pittsburgh Pirates - The Pirates may try and tempt A-Rod to come over and play third for them.  But, it probably won't happen.
• San Diego Padres - Kevin Towers loves to add players on the cheap.  This won't be cheap at all.
• St. Louis Cardinals - Scott Rolen is locked up there long term, unless things really just deteriorate between Rolen and Tony LaRussa.  And even then, I can't see the Cardinals justify paying up the nose for a player. 
• Tampa Bay Devil Rays - No.  There's too much talent here to find a capable third baseman that's a lot cheaper and about as productive.
• Toronto Blue Jays – Unfortunately, Troy Glaus is locked up at third base for the long haul and unless A-Rod is willing to switch to first base (allowing Toronto to deal Lyle Overbay) or switch back to shortstop (a position I don’t think he’s able to play anymore), this ain’t happening.
• Washington Nationals – You’re kidding me right?

Here’s who may make an offer, but really has no shot in hell to get him:

• Houston Astros - Houston would add some great depth at third with Rodriguez playing there and A-Rod would not only take advantage of the Crawford boxes, he could also play in the National League in a lower pressure environment.  Unfortunately, Houson has several big money commitments coming up and unless they free up some money fast, this probably won't happen.
• Detroit Tigers - The Tigers have dealt with Boras clients before and have a few of them on their team at the moment (Pudge, Kenny Rogers, and Mags).  However, this isn't going to be a great fit, considering that Brandon Inge just signed an extension, unless the Tigers were to move him to first base when Sean Tracey leaves.  Even then, I have a hard time seeing the Tigres adding that much payroll.

So Here’s Who’s Left

• Chicago White Sox – For starters, Kenny Williams hates Scott Boras with a passion and refuses to deal with him unless it’s absolutely necessary.  Second of all, the White Sox have Joe Crede until the end of next season, plus they have Josh Fields in the minors almost ready to step in for Crede.  However, Kenny Wiilliams inquired into Rodriguez's availability during the off-season (as he loves to buy on the cheap).  We'll see how this goes, as Chicago has some money coming off the books this season with Uribe's, Taguchi's, Dye's, and Buehrle's contracts all coming off the books.
• Baltimore Orioles - This is a fairly tempting option.  Rodriguez idolizes Cal Ripken.  Here, not only would he be able to play in Ripkins' park for Ripkin's team, he would also be able to move to shortstop, Ripkin's position.  The only problem is that owner Peter Angelos may hold up and kill any deal.
• San Francisco Giants – This could happen.  Here's why:  Barry Bonds is likely not going to be with the team next year and this team has a void at third base where Pedro Feliz is currently taking up space.  San Francisco will need a new bat in the middle of the lineup and they will also need a new face of the franchise.  Enter A-Rod.  The Giants inquired about him during the off-season, but were turned down.  Rodriguez would get a fresh start in a new enviornment.  It makes too much sense for it not to happen.  Plus, as a bonus, the Giants would not lose their 2008 1st Round Draft Pick, which is almost certain to be in the top 10, and would lose only their second.
• Boston Red Sox - Yes, Boston and Rodriguez have a troubled past.  But that doesn't mean that the fans wouldn't be willing to push out A-Rod if he were to play in Boston.  Adding Rodriguez would allow Boston to field a lineup of the following:
• Julio Lugo (SS) 
• Coco Crisp (CF)
•  Alex Rodriguez (3B)
• David Ortiz (DH)
• Manny Ramirez (LF) 
• J..D. Drew (RF)
• Kevin Youkilis (1B)
• Jason Varitek (C)
• Dustin Pedroia (2B)

That's a stronger lineup, much stronger than what Boston has now.  However, Boston could also try and go after Andruw Jones and could spin off Crisp in a different deal.  We'll see how this develops.

• Chicago Cubs - I know, Aramis Ramirez is at third.  But Rodriguez loves Lou Pinella and could switch back to shortstop.  I think he's no longer got the range for the position, but several people believe that if he gets the opportunity to switch back to his original position, he would dedicate himself to it.  We'll see.
• Los Angeles Angels - Artie Moreno has coveted Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez for quite some time now.  If Rodriguez were to leave the Yankees, the Angels would be at the forefront of making a deal happen.  Rodriguez would be able to play third, allowing the Angels to shift talented young slugger Brandon Wood to first, giving them a great lineup in the process.
• New York Mets - I never doubt any rumor about the Mets, as I believe that Omar Minaya will try and make a deal happen.  Adding Rodriguez would force David Wright into the outfield for a season before he would be able to take over first base when Carlos Delgado's contract runs its course.  Here's another one to keep an eye on...

That's it for today.  See you all next week.

On The Block:  Rafael Furcal

Why He’s On The Block: There’s too many shortstops on the Dodgers.  Furcal was signed to a fat contract his past year.  However, Rafael Furcal is having troubles on defense and more often than not is being bailed out by Nomar Gacriaparra.  With Cesar Izturis getting closer to a minor league rehabilitation assignment, the Dodgers will be faced with the scenario of moving Furcal to another position, perhaps third base.  However, Furcal has stated that he signed with the Dodgers to play shortstop.  If he refuses to move, the Dodgers are going to be forced to make a decision. 

Negotiable:  Yes.  The Dodgers want to keep his trade value high, so they’ll be extremely accommodating to the shortstop.  With that said, the Dodgers are hoping to get either a quality setup reliever or a power-hitting left fielder.

What He Offers:  Furcal is good player, but nowhere near the hype he deserved.  Still, here's what he offers.

Plus:  Can serve as a leadoff man.

·          Plus:  Switch Hitter

·          Plus:  Provides above average offense

·          Plus:  Quick.

·          Minus:  Inconsistent defensive player.

·          Minus:  Not a lot of power.

·          Minus:  Large contract.

He Stay Or Will He Go:  80-20% on him staying, because his contract makes it hard to do so.  Plus, many of his suitors from the off-season found replacements that are suitable.  Still, he’ll have takers, and here’s who could be interested.

·         Toronto Blue Jays – 50%.  The Jays could use some more production out of shortstop.  While you may think that any team with Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay or Bengie Molina doesn’t need anymore help, the Jays are having trouble with their starting pitching, their offense is going to have to carry their team more and more if they hope to get into the post-season.  While adding Furcal would not only give the Jays more depth in their lineup, it would also cost them a lot in terms of pitching prospects or payroll flexibility. 

·          Boston Red Sox – 20%.  Unlike with Izturis, the Red Sox are much less ready to jump on Furcal.  Furcal has already committed 11 errors.  While some may attribute this to his off-season surgery, the fact is that Furcal hasn’t exactly been Ozzie Smith with the glove at short.  This could bring up memories of the dearly departed Edgar Renteria, who Boston wasted no time in trading.  Plus, with Furcal’s contract, the Sox aren’t going to bite unless the Dodgers are interested in taking a big contract of their own off their hands:  Manny Ramirez.  However, the Dodgers would have to include several young players in the deal to get equal value, which is not going to happen.

        Chicago White Sox – 15%.   Juan Uribe has looked awful as of late playing shortstop.  While he’s only a year older than Furcal, he’s looking like he’s starting to break down a bit.  Anyhow, if Uribe continues to do poorly and the Dodgers are willing to deal, Kenny Williams could offer a package of Uribe and Brandon McCarthy to snag Furcal.  Furcal has a higher OBP than Uribe, is faster and would make the back end of the rotation more dangerous.  Still, at the moment, with heavy hitters Jim Thome and Paul Konerko in the mix, the White Sox have hitting enough. 

 ·        San Francisco Giants – 10%.  The Giants could deal Visquel and his expiring contract to the Dodgers.  The Giants would gain a young shortstop that they could use for the future rebuilding process in Frisco and the Dodgers would gain an aging player that has so far given the same amount of offensive numbers while improving the defense.  Will it happen?  Probably not, considering the rivalry and the fact that the Giants are in the division.  And that's not including the fact that this doesn't solve the left fielder issue.

        Washington Nationals - 5%.  The Nats have talked with the Dodgers about a trade that could bring Alfonso Soriano to the Chavez Ravine.  While Furcal isn't an answer, he'd be a lot more productive than Royce Clayton, who's now just a backup, plus fill the lead off spot.  The problem is that the Dodgers would have to take on a lot of Furcal's contract obligations, which at the moment are a bit too pricy for the Nats, plus throw in a decent prospect.

End Result – Remains with the Dodgers.