After not wanting to pay the price for a closer this off-season, via by trade or by free agency, as well as seeing their cheapie experiment in Joel Pinero produce less than solid results early on, Boston apparently is going to announce that last year's rookie sensation, Jonathan Papelbon, will return to the role.

This is a BAD idea.

For starters, Boston's rotation, which looked so formitable, now resembles this:

• Curt Schilling
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Josh Beckett
• Tim Wakefield
• Julian Tavarez

Taking Papelbon away makes this lineup a lot less spectacular and a lot more ordinary.  Schilling is still good and Matsuzaka should do well (until he takes his first whippings in the majors, more on that tomorrow), but after that you've got a lot of questions.  Is Beckett ready to improve off of an otherwise mediocre year where he largely won 16 games as a result of run support and murdering the Royals, Devil Rays, Orioles, and National League?  Does Wakefield have enough left to be trusted with 35 starters?  And are you really sure Tavarez can be a viable starter.  I'm not sold on this because for starters (no pun intended), Tavarez is better off as a long reliever/setup man and he's not really meant to be a starter.  Every time he has been used as such, it's been to rather mediocre results.  There's no guarantee that Tavarez can perform well as a starter for a season, even if he is going to get maybe 20 starters or so.

Second, the reason Papelbon was moved out of the closer's role in the first place was for health reasons.  Papelbon suffered a subluxation of his right shoulder on Sept. 1, 2006.  Shortly thereafter, the Red Sox, citing advice from the medical staff, announced that Papelbon would be best suited, at least in the short term, to go back to starting. 

Third, Papelbon really became the closer only by necessity, as the Red Sox have and still do, one of the worst bullpens in the major leagues.  As the season went on and the bullpen imploded, Papelbon was relied on more and more to keep the lead, all the while Theo Epstein refused to make a deal for help, citing a need to buidl through the system and that they were unable to play in the big boys club with the Yankees (which was one of the biggest crocks of #### I've ever heard).  I equate this to Nero playing his harp while Rome burned.  Or in this case, Theo playing his guitar while Fenway burned.

Fourth, is there any real guarantee that Papelbon will be as explosive as he was, or be available on multiple days off?  And, has the shoulder healed enough where it won't be an issue.

Add in the fact that the Boston offense really didn't improve much over the off-season and in the end, Boston will still be sitting at home, watching their bitter rivals in the post-season and hoping to god that Papelbon can still be converted back.

Getting near the end here.   THe last of the previews will be done next week.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins were one of the big stories last year, as I don’t think there has every been a team that underwent such a huge makeover and was still able to contend for much of the season.

That aint’ happening this year.

Here’s why.

Starting Rotation

1. Dontrelle Willis (LHP) – The lone remainder of the 2005 rotation, Willis lead the staff last season and posted a solid 3.87 ERA with 160 strikeouts.  However, his 12-12 record is largely due to the Marlins' struggles early on in the season, as well as a bit of a hang over from the World Baseball Classic.  With free agency approaching next year, Willis will be a hot commodity, though some teams will be wary about all the innings he's logged in since he broke into the league.  On a side note, Willis also is a excellent hitter and has hit as low as 8th in the order.
2. Scott Olsen (LHP) – Olsen gets very good velocity for a lefty, as he’s able to #### it up to the mid 90s.  He compliments that with a great slider and he’s got a good changeup that he should mix in more often.  The problem with Olsen is that he works high in the zone, and gets pounded from time to time as a result.  He also needs to improve his stamina, as he should start to pass the 200 innings mark sometime soon.
3. Anibal Sanchez (RHP) – Sanchez has all the stuff to become an ace, and he blossomed last year when called up by Florida.  Sanchez went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 17 starts, plus threw a no hitter, paving the way for a Rookie Of The Year quality season.  Sanchez's only knock is his size and his history of arm troubles, which have recently reared their ugly head again when Sanchez reported soreness in his shoulder.  Thus, this situation bears watching, as yet another talented arm for the Marlins takes a possible hit.
4. Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Nolasco has average stuff that projects him to be a fourth or fifth starter or a long reliever, depending on what the Marlins decide to do with him long tern.  They’ll be depending on him to pitch as the fourth starter, especially with Johnson out for two months.
5. Yusmeiro Petit (RHP) – Petit lacks any plus pitches, but he’s got a very deceptive deliver that hides the ball well and results in a high number of strikeouts.  However, he wasn’t able to translate that success into wins at the majors, resulting in a demotion to the bullpen.  Petit will likely begin the season with the Marlins, but he’ll be sent back to Albuquerque as soon as Johnson is ready to come back.

Bullpen

• Taylor Tankersley (Closer) – After being switched to the bullpen, Tankersley really took off, finishing the season in the majors and functioning as a setup man.  Tankersley has good enough stuff to close, but the concern is that he may not be healthy enough to remain in the role.  It should be interesting to see what happens.
• Logan Kensing (Setup Man) – Kensing was okay as a part time setup man.  He’ll man the full time duties this Spring.
• Henry Owens (RHP) – Obtained from the Mets, Owens looks to be a finished product and should be a more than capable swingman for the Fish.  Owens has got a great fastball, but the lack of a breaking pitch is rather troublesome, as his slider really doesn’t exist.  He’ll likely team up with Kensing for setup duties.
• Carlos Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was tremendous coming out of the pen last year and seems to be a lock to make the pen this Spring.
• Randy Messenger (RHP) – Messenger had a roller coaster year last year, as he was either effective or awful, depending on the month.  A excellent September gives the Marlins some hope that he can be good.
• Reynal Pinto (LHP) – Pinto looks to have the makings of a shutdown lefty reliever, but he was an excellent minor league starter.  Hence, there will be some teams asking abou him as part of a trade, in hopes of using him in that capacity. 
• Sergio Mitre (RHP) – Not sure what to make of Mitre. He’s likely going to be the swingman, though I wonder if there are better options available in the farm system that could help right now.

Starting Lineup

1. Hanley Ramirez (SS) – Ramirez, part of the Josh Beckett deal, proved to be a capable replacement for Alex Gonzalez.  He thrived as a leadoff man and is proving that he’s an excellent fielder as well.  Though Ramirez will eventually be moved down in the lineup, as he seems to be a better fit as a number two man, he should be able to duke it out with Jose Reyes for the title of best leadoff man in the National League.
2. Dan Uggla (2B) – A Rule 5 pick from the Diamondbacks, Uggla slugged his way into keeping the starting job while entering the record books as the new record holder for for homers by a rookie second baseman.  Uggla has evolved into a pretty good defender and should hit for some nice power in the two spot.  I don’t think that Uggla will have the same success that he did last year, as he is likely still adjusting to the majors, and pitchers figured him out a little, but if he can hit around .280 to .290 with 15 to 20 bombs, the Marlins will be more than happy.
3. Miguel Cabrera (3B) – Cabrera is one of those players that you know is destined for Cooperstown the first time you see him play.  Cabrera was a beast for the Marlins, hitting .339 with 26 homers and 114 RBI’s, all the while showing that he can be a more than capable defender at third.  The real question about Cabrera is whether or not he’s willing to be a leader, as he had his lapses much of last season and management seems determined to set the grounds for an eventual trade, as they’ve been feuding with him for much of the off-season.
4. Josh Willingham (LF) – Willingham isn’t the greatest left fielder, as he lacks range and his decision making in the field is questionable at times.  However, his bat is excellent, as seen from his .277/26/74 batting line. Willingham should improve with experience, and hopefully as the Guppies enter their second season together, Willingham can further improve on his hitting an be a monster of a cleanup man.
5. Mike Jacobs (1B) – Jacobs doesn’t have the amount of power that his predecessor, Carlos Delgado, had, but he hit very well and is one of the only lefty batters that offers any sort of power.  The bigger question is whether or not Jacobs can defend, as he was often times awful playing first. 
6. Jeremy Hermida (RF) –Hermida's rookie season was ruined by hip and ankle injuries, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a stud.  He still has excellent plate discipline and doubles power, though his strikeout rate may keep his batting average down.  He should have a very good career and he projects similar to Brian Giles, a very good outfielder with some pop.  I still wish Texas had drafted him instead of Drew Meyer.
7. Miguel Olivo (C) – Olivo had a very nice season as a full time starter and he put up career best numbers in all three triple crown categories, plus was capable of providing guidance to a rookie staff.  He also threw out 34 percent of attempted base stealers. The only problem is the strikeouts and his lack of plate discipline.  He had nine walks, the fewest ever for a player with at least 100 strikeouts.
8. Alfredo Amezaga (CF) – This utilityman is hoped to be able to provide at least some sort of offense from center, all the while being able to capably man the postion.  He’s likely a placeholder for someone else, should the Marlins choose to make a move.  Word has it that they’re interesting in making a deal for Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes to man center, though the Rays are asking for too much and the Marlins are unwilling to offer any young pitching.  Oh, and to a certain baseball writer who said that the Marlins shouldn’t trade any of their young pitching because they’d be better off long term, all I have to say is #### you.  The Marlins need a centerfielder and frankly, none of these guys that they have in camp will cut it.  Sometimes you gotta trade pitching to help the team now, especially when FOUR of your starters won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.

Bench

• Matt Treanor (C) – One of the best backup catchers in the league, Treanor should provide some leadership on the young Marlins.  That and bring his smoking hot wife to games.
• Aaron Boone (1B/3B) – Boone is done as a regular, but it’s possible that he may have something left to offer as far as a reserve.  Boone is most remembered for his home run against the Red Sox in the ALCS, plus inadvertently causing Drew Henson to head back to football.
• Robert Andino (INF) – Andino has a great glove and will likely sub for Ramirez or Uggla in case of injury.
• Cody Ross (OF) – Ross may be a option for center, but he needs to improve his plate discipline if he hopes to wrestle the job away from Amezaga.  He does have some power, which gives him a slight edge over Amezaga, though.
• Joe Borchard (OF) – Borchard is better off playing the outfield corners as a backup, but he’s also a bit of a disappointment as far as a centerfield option.

Disabled List

• John Johnson (RHP) – Johnson is a solid right-handed pitcher that was dominating for much of last year.  However, he’ll be out for two months thanks to an irritated ulnar nerve.  Secretly, the  that will likely force him to miss at least the first two months of the season.

Down On The Farm…

The Marlins still have some great pitching talent in the lower minors, but the biggest weakness in this system is that they lack any bats that are capable of making an impact.  Their lack of position prospects has become noticeable, which was evident in the fact that their six minor league affiliates had a combined.467 winning percentage.  There’s not an awful lot to call up at this moment, as the staff appears to be set, but there are some players that could make a contribution at some point.

• Reggie Abercrombie (CF) – The Marlins had high hopes for Abercrombie, but I think that he was rushed to the majors too soon and that may have hurt his development.  With some more time in the minors, along with instruction, Abercrombie could be at the very least a league average centerfielder in a year.
• Brett Sinkbeil (RHP) – The sky’s the limit for Sinkbeil and there’s talk that he could move through the system quickly.  Sinkbiel  is an extremely polished pitcher with a low 90’s sinking fastball that touches 95 that he uses with a above average slider.  His changeup is still a work in progress, but the potential is that if he gets that last pitch together, he could reach Florida by the end of 2006. 
• Jose Garcia (RHP) – Garcia is a short pitcher, but he’s got great stuff, as his arsenal includes a low 90s fastball, a decent slider, and changeup that is already a plus pitcher.  The problem is that his size allows for little movement and he’s got very little projection left on him.  Garcia rose quikyl through the system, beginning in Class High A and hitting the Majors, but he’s likely going to be in Triple A, where he’ll await a call up. 

In Conclusion

Last year’s 78 win team surprised many, and showed that you could win with a payroll less than Derek Jeter’s yearly salary.  That won’t happen this year, as the Marlins will likely suffer some attrition due to injuries, the league catching up to some of the starters, and the improvement of the National League as a whole.  They may finish at .500, but I don’t see them making the playoffs.  They will, however, be a threat to the Phillies, Braves and Mets next year and will be dangerous thanks to that staff.  But until then…

Final Standing:  Fourth Place In The National League East.

P.S. – Yes, I was in a bad mood when I wrote this.

Okay, let's see where the hat decides to go again...

I was wondering when one of these two would come up...

Boston Red Sox

Boston finished a dismal third place (in their opinion) after they collapsed so late in the season and failed to make any moves at the deadline.  So, after complaining that they weren't able to compete with the Yankees financially, they went out...and outspent the Yankees, earning the praise of Peter Gammons, who congradualted Boston on recognizing their financial superiority.

I subsequently cancelled my ESPN The Magazine subscription out of disgust for that comment.

I'm also very much disappointed by Theo Epstein, who wanted to build a team from the farm up, the promptly gutted that farm in trades.  As of right now, only four Red Sox were actually drafted by the club, and Schilling, one of those four, didn't even debut for the club until years later.

But enough about that.  The bottom line is, did all that spending make a difference for the Red Sox?  Let's see.

Starting Rotation

1. Curt Schilling (RHP) – Last year, Schilling showed that he was mostly recovered from his leg injuries of 2005.  He's also evolved as a pitcher and has learned to depend on his secondary pitches, allowing him to outmanuever and trick hitters into swinging and missing.  Schilling enters the season as the ace of the staff and should be good for 12 to 15 wins, provided that he stays healthy.
2. Josh Beckett (RHP) – Beckett had a odd year last year.  For starters, he was able to pitch for a full season without being placed on the DL and looked good at times.  Unfortunately, Beckett also collapsed down the stretch as he was figured out and teams took advantage of his high 90's fastball, which has almost no break.  Part of his collapse is also attributed to his competitive nature, where he continues to want to challenge hitters and doesn’t want to concede contact.  Beckett will have to learn to pitch smarter or continue to get rocked.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP) – Matsuzaka was the subject of a six team bidding war for his services, in which Boston bid a staggering $51,111,111 to secure his services, then signed him for 6 years, $52 million.  Matsuzaka has excellent stuff and is viewed to be no worse than a number two.  He'll have to be, as he'll be thrust into one of the most heated rivalries in the world.  Depending on how the rotation sorts out in Spring Training, Matsuzaka will likely be placed in the third spot, where he won't be put under the pressure of a number one or two.
4. Jonathan Papelbon (RHP) – After one of the best rookie outings in years, Papelbon will move back into the rotation, a role her prefers and may be better long term, due to shoulder problems possibly caused by the workload needed to enter in consecutive days.  Papelbon has got great stuff, enough to be a solid number two starter, but he’ll probably struggle as he adjusts from a frequent workload to a larger one.  It depends on how well he does.  For the record, I checked PETCOA on Papelbon:  they aren’t high on him.
5. Tim Wakefield (RHP) – Injury derailed Wakefield’s 2006 campaign, perhaps an indicator of things to come, but I think Wakefield’s got at least one more good year left in him.  And if there isn’t, there are options down in Pawtuckett.

Bullpen

• Joel Pinero (Closer) – I’m chalking Pinero in as the closer only because of the contract terms in his contract offered by Boston that include bonuses for saves.  Pinero was rather solid as a reliever, but Seattle was unwilling (and out of patience with him) to give him a contract and released him.  Pinero could be a solid closer, as his stuff is enough to where he could be a serviceable bullpen option, but having the ability to function in the role and actually doing so are two totally different stories.
• Mike Timlin (Setup Man) – Timlin is a solid closer that faltered last season due to his overuse during the World Baseball Classic and when the bullpen and rotation imploded last season.  Timlin should be ready after an off-season of rest and can spot close when necessary.
• Manny Delcarmen (RHP) – Delcarmen doesn’t have closer’s stuff like Hansen, but he’s still a solid big league bullpen arm and will likely enter the season with the big club.
• Julian Tavarez (RHP) – This reliever is as talented as he is nuts.  Tavarez was rather average in Boston, but he also showed a lot of heart and determination when he filled in on the rotation and during rough innings when he battled.  Tavarez isn’t good enough to be a suitable closer anymore, but he’ll make a solid 7th inning option.
• Brendan Donnelly (RHP) – Brought in to help bolster the bullpen, Donnelly has been solid over the past few years.  He’s not going to be a part of the closer mix that Boston is trying to put together, but he can still be an effective setup man, provided his stuff doesn’t suddenly decline sharply. 
• J.C. Romero (LHP) – Romero was a solid lefty that didn’t quite fit in over in LA.  It’s possible that he could bounce back to become an average lefty reliever.
• Matt Clement (RHP) – The signing of Matsuzaka has effectively pushed Clement to the bullpen, where it’s hoped he can regain some of his former luster and be a solid starter again.  Boston hopes that Clement has an impressive spring training so they can trade him, because otherwise he’s a hell of an expensive swingman.  He’ll also be a part of Boston’s closer competition, but to tell the truth, I’m no longer as high on his bouncing back as I once was.

Projected Lineup

1. Julio Lugo (SS) – Lugo was one of the better shortstops in the AL (with only Young, Tejada and Jeter ahead of him) before he was dealt to the Dodgers and promptly faded into obscurity.  Lugo returned to the AL when Boston signed him to be their latest replacement for Nomar and should lead off.  Lugo has some good doubles power as well as the ability to take a walk and has some speed on his wheels.  Defensively he’s not Alex Gonzalez, but he’s not bad either.  Lugo should return to his former prominence this year with a new team and his old position back.
2. Coco Crisp (CF) – Crisp had a off year, mostly due to injury, but also due to the adjustment to the psychos in Boston.  Crisp really isn’t fit for the leadoff role, but he’s a great number two.  With Ortiz behind him in the lineup, the two play very well off year other, with Crisp’s speed and contact abilities allowing him to play hell on the bases and giving Ortiz a extra runner to drive home on a homer.  However, Crisp won’t be long in Boston, due to the presence of Jacoby Ellsbury (see Down On The Farm...)
3. David Ortiz (DH) – One of the most feared hitters in the game, Ortiz is always a RBI threat, be it a homer or a double and can draw a fair amount of walks as well.  He’s a terrible defender, but he only blows the dust off the glove during interleague play, so it’s not really a factor until then.  Ortiz is in his prime as a hitter and should remain a force in the lineup in Boston for the life of his contract…provided he has protection.
4. Manny Ramirez (LF) – Not every team has a pair of 40 home run threats hitting back to back (okay, so the Yankees do, but I haven’t done their preview yet!)  Ramirez can still hit the hell out of the ball and can draw the walk when he needs to, but the defense is brutal and the mood swings maddening.  Still, Boston should shut up and put up with him, as he’s one of the best hitters in the game and protects their best bat in the lineup.
5. J.D. Drew (RF) – The Red Sox loved Drew’s solid OBP numbers and his stats, but they seemed to overlook his tendency for landing on the disabled list.  Drew should be a monster in this lineup, where his power numbers will play very well and his athleticism will vastly improve the right field defense, but I think he’s going to wind up missing a lot of time, making this deal a bad one (and possibly triggering the opt out clauses in Drew’s deal.)
6. Mike Lowell (3B) – Lowell did well last season and proved that he still had some life left in his bat while provided excellent defense at third.  But he’s going to be 33 and like it or not, the questions will arise again if he can keep it up.  Fenway will continue to help him as far as any park related benefits go, but the power is dropping fast and his plate discipline, though still solid, won’t be able to offset it for much longer.
7. Kevin Youkilis (1B) – Youk lacks the power you typically look for in a first baseman, but his defense is good and his plate discipline is such that the walks make up for the lack of pop.  He’ll post a good batting average and be a reasonable threat in the back of the order, but power numbers are not, and have never been a part of his game.
8. Jason Varitek (C) – Blame the World Baseball Classic and the injury all you want, Varitek was due for a breakdown.  He’s 35 and like it or not, that’s typically the age when catchers being to wear down.  I had trouble figuring out how well Varitek would do, so I asked PETCOA.  Signs look good for some solid production, but he’s not going to his .281 average or 21 homers of 2005 ever again. 
9. Dustin Pedroia (2B) – Rather than overbid for a existing second baseman on the market (there were several), Boston chose instead to give Pedroia a shot.  Pedroia has great contract skills, some doubles power and a excellent glove.  His work ethic is also unquestionable and reminds me of David Eckstein when he first started.  However, Pedroia isn’t going to get much more power and as a result, some of those doubles will be turned into double plays.  He still should be an average second baseman, but that’s about it.  But, taken into context with the rest of the lineup, and that’s all Boston will need.

Bench

• Eric Hinske (IF/OF) – Hinske is a useful bench player, able to play either the infield or outfield corners.  He hits for reasonable power and he’s a pretty good lefthanded bat off the bench.  The strikeouts are killer, however, but he’s a good option off the bench, provided he doesn’t start for any long duration of time.
• Wily Mo Pena (OF) – Why Boston traded for Pena, then signed J.D. Drew is a mystery to everyone outside of the Red Sox offices on Yawkey Way.  Pena has awesome power in his bat, but his long swing results in loads of strikeouts.  His defense is also substandard, making him a DH or destined to play at a shorter outfield corner.  With Drew in Boston, Pena will ride the pine, waiting for Drew’s numerous Operation Pieces to act up.  But with the potential for power numbers, Pena could also be traded at some point next season. 
• Alex Cora (IF) – Cora can play both of the middle infield positions well, but his bat is too inconsistent for him to be a starter.
• Doug Mirabelli (C) – Wakefield’s personal catcher will only catch Wakefield, as that bat is killer (and not to the other team.)

Farm System

With all the promotions and the trades, Boston’s once mighty farm system isn’t as stocked as it once was, with most of the heavy players down in the low minors.  However, there will be some talent available to draw on, plus some guys that are not prospects, but solid enough to give the big club options in times of need.

• Jon Lester (LHP) – Lester was having a solid campaign until he was shut down thanks to lymphoma.  Lester’s cancer is supposedly in remission at the moment, so that’s good news.  But even with the scare, it was obvious that Lester wasn’t ready for the majors, as the league was catching on.  Lester should spend most of the year in Triple A, unless one of the starters lands on the DL. 
• George Kottaras (C) – Obtained from the Padres for David Wells, the Red Sox obtained the successor for Jason Varitek in a steal.  One of the best catching prospects in the minors, Kottaras is a natural hitter with good plate discipline, developing power and a solid glove behind the plate.  His arm strength is good, but scouts say that he has a slow release.  Still, he’s a solid prospect that could be in Boston as soon as next year, depending on if and when Tim Wakefield ever retires and the Red Sox have no need for Doug Mirabelli.
• Craig Hansen (RHP) – Hansen was one of the top relief prospects in the game, but his stock has dropped fast and far after a terrible performance at Triple A and in Boston.  He’s got two great pitches with a mid-90s fastball and darting slider, but the slider has fallen off a bit and his command is slipping.  Simply put, Hansen isn’t the pitcher he was in college and is beginning to look less like a closer and more of an average reliever.  He should and likely will, begin the season in Triple A. 
• Dale Murphy (OF) – It was hoped that Murphy could turn into a solid power hitting outfielder, but he never developed his body to that ability and now looks to be a fourth outfielder at best.
• Clay Buchholz (RHP) – Boston’s top pitching prospect, Buchholz dominated the low minors, though his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as he was a bit older than the competition.  Stuff wise, he’s got three plus pitches in his fastball, curveball and his filthy changeup.  The Red Sox will likely promote him to High A, but he could also be challenged by being promoted to Double A in an effort to get him into the rotation sooner. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury (CF) – Ellsbury is the reason why the Red Sox won’t pursue a major free agent addition as far as centerfield goes or why Coco Crisp won’t be traded yet.  Ellsbury is clearly the centerfielder of the future for Boston.  He projects similar to former Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon as he’s a quality defender with good bat speed and pitch recognition that has good range in the outfield and has enough speed to make him a threat on the bases.  Humorously enough, both also lack strong arms.  The only real difference between the two is that Ellsbury won’t have the power that Damon has.  Ellsbury will likely be pushed soon, as the Sox are getting impatient, so we could see Ellsbury start to challenge Crisp for the starting job as soon as next year.

In Conclusion

The infield is a huge offensive question, depending if they can get solid seasons out of Pedroia and Lowell, and Drew's durability is very much in question.  The rotation is mostly solid and the bullpen is slightly improved.  If this were two years ago, Boston would likely win the Wild Card.  Now, they're staying home.

Final Standing:  Second in the American League East

Friday Morning Closer

Here’s my five-pitch outing for the day.

Beckett’s Proving To Be Less Than What The Red Sox Thought

Judging from the Emails from the Red Sox Nation, I’m guessing that Beckett isn’t at all popular.  In fact, many regard Beckett as a disaster that cost the Red Sox too much in terms of prospects.

When the Red Sox jumped in between the negotiations between the Texas Rangers and the Florida Marlins on a trade that would have sent the fireballer to Arlington, the Red Sox blew away the Rangers’ offer of 3B Hank Blalock, SS Joaquin Arias and LHP John Danks in return for Beckett and Mike Lowell with a impressive package of SS Hanley Ramirez, RHP Anibal Sanchez.  The Red Sox cackled gleefully as they won the bidding and thought that they had their ace of the future in Beckett.

However, this probably should have been forseen by Boston when they dealt for the talented Texas.  Beckett had long benefited from pitching at home in the cavernous Dolphin Stadium, but was only average outside of Miami.  Other factors to take into account, as usual, was the addition of the DH, which usually inflates ERA’s from the National League to the American League by one run.

Plus, watching Beckett and his delivery, there was also the manner in how he competes.  Beckett got by often in the National League by overpowering hitters, usually the bottom 3 hitters, with fastballs.  In the deeper lineups of the American League however, the hitters have exploited this weakness.  And as you know, hitting a fastball hard results in a lot more of the long ball, a category that Beckett leads.  A good way to prove this is with a stat line Ken Rosenthal posted earlier.  Beckett is 4-5 with a 7.60 ERA this season against the White Sox, Indians, Yankees, Rangers, Blue Jays and Tigers, six of the Top Seven Hitting Teams in Baseball (Boston is the other member of the Top 7).  Against the weaker teams, such as Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and other such teams?  He's 9-1 with a 3.03 ERA.

It’s already late in the season for Boston to work with Beckett on improving much.  Seven weeks in the middle of a pennant race isn’t the best circumstances on helping a guy develop.  In the off-season, the Red Sox need to work with Beckett to work on his breaking stuff and not over rely on the heater.  He has a solid sinker and a good curveball that he should mix in with his fastball as well.  His sinker is good enough to be used as an out pitch.  Another thing that Boston needs to address is Jason Varitek.  I know I’m going to get blasted for this one…

Varitek has over-relied on certain pitchers’ pitches (say that three times fast.)  In the case of Matt Clement, Varitek called Clement’s slider too often, causing him to be way to predictable, which is a shame because Clement had other decent pitches at his disposal.  He may be doing the same with Beckett and calling the fastball too much, and in the process, creating irreparable harm.

Needless to say, the Red Sox need to address Beckett’s situation as quickly as possible.  From what we’ve seen, John Lester is going to be a quality middle of the rotation starter and Papelbon, who has ace quality stuff, won’t be in the rotation for another year and would still need yet another year to make the transition from reliever to starter.  Hence, Boston’s future rotation depends heavily on Beckett becoming as effective as the man he’s supposed to emulate, Curt Schilling, in a short period of time.

Buying Barry – Part One

The most attractive name on the 2006 Free Agent List will in no doubt be Barry Zito. 

And the bidding is going to be ugly as hell.

With Scott Boras taking center stage on the bidding, Boras is going to make out like a bandit on his client, netting him a lucrative contract that will make Zito a rich man for years to come.  The contract he’s going to use as a base model is going to be Kevin Millwood’s deal with Texas, 5 years, $60 million.   That will automatically eliminate the following teams from the bidding:

Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Atlanta, Florida, Washington, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh.

Next, we eliminate the teams that have a good stable of young pitching available:

Los Angeles (AL), Detroit, Chicago (AL), Houston

That leaves us with 14 teams.  Or the Entire American League, however you look at it.

Here’s who will not go after Zito, even though they’ll have the cash to do so.

Arizona – Is developing their own pitching prospects, so they should be good to go.

Colorado – Already has a staff that they can build their future around, plus some talent in the minors that can contribute.

San Diego – One of the cheapest teams in the leagues, San Diego is known for letting players go in free agency.  It’s highly likely that they’ll promote from within or sign cheaper alternatives (Hello Kerry Wood!)

San Francisco – Could use Zito, especially since it’s likely that Schmidt and Bonds are leaving, but they have so many concerns already that their money could be used elsewhere.  They’ll more likely pursue Alfonso Soriano. 

Which leaves 10 teams remaining for Zito’s services, all of whom will be bidding against each other for the southpaw’s services.  Here are teams likely to go into different directions:

Toronto – Has committed too much money in terms of players, though this could change if they successfully trade Vernon Wells.

Cincinnati – Too much money is tied up in the Natti.  Plus, with their

St. Louis – The Cards have a lot of free agency issues already in terms of pitching.  Aside from Carpenter, who will want a contract extension, the Cardinals also have Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Weaver, along with Jim Edmonds.  The Cardinals will have too much to handle just trying to sort out of their free agent.

Seattle – Will probably go after Jason Schmidt.  Schmidt would do well in Safeco’s spacious outfield and plus, the Mariners need another workhorse pitcher to go along with Jarrod Washburn, as they have their potential ace of the future in Felix Hernandez.

Philadelphia – I don’t remember Pat Gillick ever going after big name free agents, though he did trade for David Cone.  Still, it’s likely that Gillick will sign some under the radar players that will wind up contributing big to the Phillies.

Which whittles the list down to five:

Los Angeles (NL)

Chicago (NL)

Texas

New York (AL)

Boston

Looking For More Details…Next Week

Stay Away From Kevin Brown’s House

Stay away from Kevin Brown’s, especially if you own a lawnmower.

Bibb County sheriff's deputies were called to settle a turf war between Brown and his neighbor.   The neighbor called the sheriff's office after a loud argument that began when he found Brown throwing grass clippings over the fence into the neighbor’s yard.  When confronted, Brown argued with his neighbor and pulled out a gun.  The neighbor was then told not to come onto his property.  Brown told deputies that he carries a gun while strolling through the woods because he often sees snakes.

To his credit, Brown didn’t point the gun at his neighbor.

Reportedly, Brown discovered yard debris on his side of the fence from his neighbor as he walked his property line. He grabbed a couple of fistfuls of clippings and threw them back.  The neighbor admitted to throwing the grass clippings over the vine-covered wire fence that stands 3 to 4 feet tall.  Brown also told deputies that his neighbor became very angry during the shouting match and said, "I should take you out right now."  The neighbor confirmed the remark.  Charges won’t be pressed and Brown is going to put up a taller fence.  The neighbor is going to buy a mulching mower.

Madness.  But often, that’s what you get from Kevin Brown, who has a history of being a nutcase.  He had the distinction of being the only successful Texas Rangers pitcher not invited back.  Kenny Rogers now shares the honor with him.

The New Yankee Stadium

The Yankees broke ground Wednesday on a billion-dollar stadium.  George Steinbrenner, Gov. George Pataki, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and others dug with silver shovels with baseball-bat-shaped handles into some dirt across the street from historic Yankee Stadium to signify the groundbreaking.  Coincidentally, Wednesday was the same date Babe Ruth died 58 years ago.

"It's a pleasure to give this to you people," said Steinbrenner. "This is for you people and we think very highly of all of you and I just want you to know it."  Hopefully, they forgot Steinbrenner’s earlier history of threatening to move the Yankees to New Jersey.
One block away, police blocked dozens of demonstrators opposed to plans to eliminate chunks of the popular Macombs Dam and Mullaly Parks to build the stadium.  Save Our Parks, a community group, unsuccessfully sought a court injunction barring construction.

The Yankees will pay the $800-million cost to build the stadium, which will feature touches of the copper frieze and limestone walls of the original park.  The famed façade, which now adorns the top of the park, will also be moved to the new park and placed back in it’s original position, hanging down from the roof of the stadium.  Monument Park will be off the field of play and in a separate area of the facility. 

The city and state have agreed to invest nearly $400 million in garages, parks, a new Metro North station and tax breaks.  The original stadium, built in 1923, will be bulldozed to make way for baseball fields.  This I don’t agree with.  The Yankees should have tried to convert the original stadium into a little league park of a minor league park.  Yankee Stadium is one of our nation’s treasures and should be preserved for future generations to share.

The team will not pay rent on publicly owned land and if there are cost overruns, the Yankees have agreed to assume the burden.  The Yankees also agreed to contribute $50 million over 40 years for community programs in the Bronx, including $800,000 a year to a trust fund, $100,000 in sports equipment and uniforms, and 15,000 tickets a year to home games.  A quarter of the project's construction and stadium jobs will be reserved for Bronx residents and businesses.

The Return Of Canseco Watch!!!!

Just when you thought you escaped it, Jose Canseco has returned to the news.

Jose Canseco started for the Long Beach Armada of the Golden Baseball League, his first time pitching since he gave up the Game for the Northern Team in the GBL’s All-Star Game.  Apparently, Canseco has been working on his mechanics and arm strength with pitching coach Jon Warden, who won the World Series with the Detroit Tigers in 1968.  Canseco used a fastball and knuckleball as his primary pitches.  His start was against the Reno Silver Sox, who lead the GBL in most hitting categories, including batting average and home runs.

So, it’s really not much of a surprise that things got ugly early.

Canseco hit four batters and walked five others in 4 1/3 innings for the Long Beach Armada on Wednesday night.  He also gave up a home run on a "flat knuckleball" and recorded his first career strikeout during the 8-2 loss.  Still, Canseco felt pretty good about his performance, though he did say he had to walk fewer guys (ya think!)

Armada manager Darrell Evans said he saw Canseco's performance in that game and was impressed that Canseco was throwing strikes.  Canseco's second start is scheduled against the Yuma Scorpions on Sunday and his third and final start is set for Aug. 26 at home against the San Diego Surf Dawgs, the team he requested a trade from earlier in the season.

One of the trickest things in player development is choosing the players that you are sure that will not only help you win a championship (or at the very least become excellent trade bait), but will also have a minimum of issues for you to deal with.

Unfortunately, you have cases of talented young men with all the talent in the world losing it all.  Such is the case with Florida Marlins pitching prospect Jeff Allison. 

Allison was a star high school pitcher from Peabody, Massachusetts (I pretty sure I ####ked that up and I'm sorry all people from MASS) who was seen as a future ace in the making.  He had a fastball in the mid ninties and one of the filthiest curves ever seen in a young prospect.  He thew a two-hitter once and dominated the local competition.  Scouts also loved his competitive nature on the mound, drawing comparisons to Roger Clemens.  He was even made Baseball America's 2003 High School Player Of The Year.

What Clemens Does For His Suitors

Well, Roger Clemens has finally made his decision, agreeing to return to the Houston Astros.  The seven-time Cy Young Award winner ended his seven-month retirement by accepting a deal that will pay him approximately $14 million -- the pro-rated value of a $21 million seasonal contract -- to pitch for the Astros for the balance of the current season.  While this is great news for Astros fans and finally some closure to what has been a rather frustrating ordeal for some fans of the other teams (with the added bonus of shutting up the talking heads at ESPN for a bit), let's see what Clemens' return does for the four teams seeking his services.

Houston

Clemens chose the safest option, returning to Houston.  Clemens is a god there, plus he has the sweetest deal available to any pitcher in baseball.  His son also plays in the organization and could be called up to allow father and son to play a game together.  Plus, Clemens would not have destroyed some of the bridges he's seemed to have rebuilt with Boston and New York.  Clemens greatly helps the Astros, allowing them to have their Big Three pitchers back in Oswalt, Clemens and Pettitte, plus pushing either Taylor Buchholz or Fernando Nieve back into the bullpen for some much needed depth.  Though the offense is slightly better, the Astros are much the same team, with the noted exception of Brad Lidge, who has been awful.  If the Astros can regain Brandon Backe back in the rotation, pushing Buchholz into the bullpen to gain further depth, the Astros should have a championship caliber bullpen and rotation to enable them to successfully have a chance to defend their National League Title.

Texas

The Rangers had no real shot at landing Clemens.  The Rangers for years had tried to lure the Rocket to Arlington, to no avail.  Still, the Rangers had long prepared themselves for the season, seeing Clemens as merely a bonus.  Unlike most years, there is pitching options availalbe, with Adam Eaton's impending return, John Rheinecker's amazing start, and Robinson Tejeda back in Triple A Oklahoma.  The Rangers will be fine.

Boston

Boston has long had a certain appeal for Clemens, as Clemens would not only be able to pitch alongside long time Clemens' admirer's Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling (who believes that his career was saved by Clemens thanks to a dressing down given by the star to a young Schilling when he played for the Astros), but he would also be able to break Cy Young's most wins by a Red Sox pitcher and be able to wear his old Number 21 one last time before retiring.  He would also have been able to contend for a title.  Clemens returing to the Astros hurts Boston in the sense that they would have benefited from having another solid pitcher in the rotation, giving them options to switch David Wells and Matt Clement as the fifth starter.  Still, Boston has resources in it's farm system to do the job, whether it being calling up stud pitcher Jon Lester or trading for a starter, such as Florida's Dontrelle Willis or Atlanta's Tim Hudson.

New York

Returning to New York would mean that Clemens would have reunited with friends Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, along with pitching for a manager that he greatly respects, Joe Torre.  Plus, Clemens would have made a pretty penny pitching for New York, as money is no object thanks to George Steinbrenner.  Clemens returning to Houston kills the Yankees, as not many pitching options are available.  New York badly needed the Rocket to return to the City That Never Sleeps to help solidify a struggling rotation.  Mussina has been brilliant, Wang has been good, Johnson has been inconsistent and Shawn Chacon is hurt, though  Jaret Wright looks like he might be turning the corner and becoming the pitcher he was for the Braves.  Adding Clemens to the mix would have strengthened New York's chances to contend with the lineup going down with injury.  Now they'll have to look at the bargain bin and hope that someone in there has some magic left.

Friday Morning Closer

So, here’s my five-pitch outing for the day:

Derek Jeter, Overrated!?  Please.

Players voted Derek Jeter as the most overrated player in baseball in a Sports Illustrated poll.

Please.

Jeter, while getting paid millions, is a solid player who delivers for his team day in and day out.  He plays hard, will often play with injuries during the playoffs so that he can continue to help the team.  He’s a good fielder, an excellent batter, and a capable leader.  Just because he gets paid millions doesn’t mean he’s overrated.  It just mean’s he’s well paid. 

So who is overrated?

Here’s a quick list:

Carlos Beltran – Great complementary player, but not a superstar.  #### You Scott Boras.

Chipper Jones – A solid third baseman and a great team player.  But not as dangerous as people have made him out to be.

Barry Zito – A great starter, but gets way to much pub because of his Cy Young win.  Is likely only a number two starter at best.

Eric Gagne – Was a crappy starter, then suddenly became lights out as a closer before going down with injury and now is fostering rumors of possible steroid use.

Josh Beckett – Had that great World Series in 2003, then became a non-factor in the Marlins rotation since.  However, this may be because the Marlins rushed his #### to the majors too quickly. 

Another Lame Trade Deadline Lies Ahead…

Ah, another crappy trade deadline period looms.  Because of the fact that most of the superstars are locked up and so many teams are going to be remaining competitive until August or so, you’ll probably see a run on complementary players, bench players, and replacement players at the break.  Stars get hurt all the time.  There’s nothing that can be done about it.  And those teams that are so close to contending will raid other non-contenders or teams with excess players in order to get themselves.

So who could we see become a suddenly hot property if a star goes down with a season ending injury?  Here’s a rough guess:

Craig Wilson (Pittsburgh Pirates) – Plays first base and the outfield.  He’s also got some nice pop to his bad and is a good defender as well.  Also has an expiring contract, so he would be under no obligation to stay.

Tony Womack (Free Agent) – Will get a call if something happens to someone’s second baseman.  Not what he once was, but he’s got good speed and can be decent at the infield.  He can’t hit anymore, so it’s likely that he’d be better off in the American League, where he could be hidden in the 9^th spot, something that can’t be done in the National League.

Steve Finley (San Francisco Giants) – An old player, but could be good as a fourth outfielder in some American League clubs.  He’s still speedy on the bases, which is a plus.

Mark Bellhorn (San Diego Padres) – Is a strikeout machine, but Bellhorn can still adequately play second and possibly some other infield position. He’s still got some pop to his bat, which is a definite plus.

Chris Burke (Houston Astros) – Is good enough to play second base on a regular basis, but is blocked by Craig Biggio.  Still, he’s being groomed as their second baseman of the future.  He can also play the outfield and is a great defender.  Also can hit the ball hard and consistently. 

Bill Hall (Milwaukee Brewers) – Still can produce, but he’s no longer a starter.  A great utility player, Hall can still produce good numbers, but doesn’t draw walks consistently.  Also strikes out a lot.

Reggie Sanders (Kansas City Royals) – Can still hit the long ball and plays a great right field.  His contract will turn off some teams, but Sanders is a great pickup for those teams that need another power bat in the lineup. 

Nationals Finally Have An Owner

Well, the Nats finally have an owner after the team was bought in 2002 from Jeffery Loria.  The team has been to a group headed by Ted Lerner, sold for the cool price of $450 million, which will equate to about $15.5 million dollars for each of the 29 teams.  The team was largely dealt a bad hand by baseball as a whole.  There was too little money given to the team (the most example was in 2003, when baseball refused to give the Expos $50,000 to call up minor leaguers to help them compete for a playoffs) and at times thought to be undercut by competitors.

The new management has a tough road ahead.  First off, they must market the team in a town that has long been dominated by Peter Angelos and the Orioles.  They’ll have to ensure that their television contract is adequate, that they are able to mend fences with the DC City Council, which is miffed that Lerner does not more minority owners in his group and is still angry at Baseball over the fight for the stadium-financing plan.

Second, the team has a weak farm system.  Terrible drafts and trades have severely weakened the system, which has some talent down in the High Class A and a couple in Triple AAA, but most of the major league ready talent that the Nats could have called up has been.  While they’ll likely be in position to draft well for the next couple of years and possibly bring in a few free agents that could make a difference, the bread and butter of a team is always the farm.  Still, I have high hopes for the Nationals  as they will begin to start rebuilding the right way, without the rest of the 29 teams butting in.  The best thing about all of this is that the Nats are finally self sufficient and have an owner that is willing to not only put in money into the team, but seems to be well grounded and has Stan Kasten, who will keep the team on course.   Things might be rough in the short term, but the future is bring in Washington.

The Most Valuable Royals Card Ever!!!!!!!

For those people who used to collect baseball cards, this story is for you.

The hottest baseball card in all of baseball isn’t of Nolan Ryan, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, even Derek Jeter.

It’s of Kansas City Royal prospect Alex Gordon, who has yet to play in the major leagues. 

Why is his rookie card so hot, selling for as much as $2,550 in recent weeks?

For those that follow the hobby, the MLB Players Association ruled that card manufacturers could only make rookie cards of players who either made the 25 man roster or played in a major league game the season before.  Gordon does qualify, as he didn’t sign his contract until late last September.  Topps realized at the last minute, destroyed the cards already produced and the production plate themselves.  But some cards did make it into circulation at some Wal-Marts in the earliest production runs only.  A fan named Jeremy Troutman pulled five of Gordon's cards and sold all five of them to different collectors for a total of $5,761.79.  Other copies are circulating eBay, including other variants of the card.

The last major error of this magnitude in the trading card industry happened in 1989, when a Fleer card featuring Billy Ripken was released.  According to legend, Billy’s big brother Cal wrote the words #### Face on the knob of the bat that Ripken used in the picture.  Fleer noticed the error and produced more than six versions of that card, but the original remained the hottest property, selling for hundreds of dollars at the time. Today, that card can be had for $5. 

Will I buy it?  Probably not.  But it’s just part of the fun of collecting baseball cards.

Genius!

Yesterday it was announced that the Team USA bus would be unmarked during the FIFA World Cup in Germany.  The reason being is so that terrorists would not be able to tell which bus was the American’s bus while traveling or while parked.  All the other buses will be marked with their Flags, leaving Team USA’s bus as the only blue one in the parking lot.

Right….