It’s time to see where the Hat wants to look at again…

It says we’re going to finish the National League off today.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The uni’s are okay looking, but this team has a buzz around it not seen since the glory days of Johnson and Schilling.  With a core of young position players around them, this team has the potential to make some noise in this division.

Starting Rotation

1. Brandon Webb (RHP) – The 2006 Cy Young winner. Webb won his first eight decisions and had a franchise-record 30 consecutive scoreless innings while earning his first All-Star berth.  Webb is a solid pitcher who really only needs one pitch to succeed, provided the defense behind him is excellent. 
2. Randy Johnson (LHP) – Johnson returns to the scene of his greatest success after escaping New York after a mediocre year.  Johnson can still eat innings and at times can dominate, but the health issues will make things a little dicey as far as whether or not he’ll fulfill the full term of the deal.  He’ll benefit well from returning to the NL lineups, where he won’t have the DH to worry about it.
3. Livan Hernandez (RHP) – The Dbacks have a deep farm system, but have little pitching, which was why they were so eager to add Hernandez and his contract last season.  Hernandez won the NL Championship Series and World Series MVP awards as a rookie in 1997, and has been, for the most part, a big game pitcher for most of his career.  His down year was mostly because of a sore knee and plus the fact that the Nationals were pretty much done when the season started.  He was rather solid after the trade went down and should be okay. 
4. Doug Davis (LHP) – The Brewers were right to deal Davis now while he still had value, as he's been declining steadily for the past three years.  The latest drop is evident in his 11-11, 4.91 record last season, along with a 159-102 strikeout to walk ratio.  Davis still has value in the fact that he's a capable innings eater, as he logged in 200 plus innings for the third straight season.  Davis will likely be the fourth starter in the rotation, which should take some pressure off of him.  But he's also moving into a known hitters park.  So, he's likely going to post a similar ERA, but will get at least three more wins with a strong lineup backing him up.  His addition gives Arizona trio of innings eaters in Webb, Hernandez and Davis. 
5. Edgar Gonzalez (RHP) – Gonzalez appears to be the favorite to win the final spot in the rotation.  As far as Gonzalez is concerned, he’s got several average pitches in his fastball, slider, changeup and curveball, but he throws them all well and he’s got an easy delivery.  All in all, he should be a good fifth starter.

Bullpen

• Jose Valverde (Closer) – With his mid-90s fastball, Jose Valverde is more than capable of being a dominant closer.  The only problem is that he’s inconsistent as far as his performance and he’s got some durability issues.  He did well last season, so it could be that he may be starting to turn the corner as far as injuries.
• Brandon Medders (Setup Man) – Medders is a dependable setup man that is at times asked to do a bit too much when the rest of the pen explodes.  He’ll also likely spot close when necessary.
• Brandon Lyon (RHP) – Another solid setup man, Lyon gives the Dbacks a solid 7th inning reliever.
• Jorge Julio (RHP) – Julio was once one of the higher regarded young prospects in baseball, but he’s fall far and hard enough that the Dbacks really home for something from him.  Julio was larlgely disappointing last season, save for the one month he served as the closer.  Julio has legitimate power stuff, with a mid- to high 90s fastball and a high 80s slider, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together.  Nonetheless, Florida is eager to give him a shot if the Dbacks are willing to pay for most of his salary.
• Enrique Gonzalez (RHP) – Gonzalez is the long reliever, spot starter.  Gonzalez has decent stuff as his fastball can touch the upper 90’s, plus he’s got a good breaking ball.  However, Gonzalez’s size and durability don’t lend itself to a regular job, hence why he’s in the pen.
• Dana Eveland (LHP) – Eveland is one of those guys that has the potential to be good, but he’s just never put it together.  It’ll be tougher for him now that he’s in Arizona.
• Juan Cruz  (RHP) – Cruz is a capable starter, but fits better as a long reliever/spot starter.

Starting Lineup

1. Orlando Hudson (2B) – Hudson is a solid defender that has terrific range and a strong arm.  He’s very important to the performance of Brandon Webb because of his sinkerball nature.  He’s not a excellent hitter, but he hits well enough and runs well enough that he’s a good fit at two.
2. Stephen Drew (SS) – Drew, whom scouts considered the best position player available in the 2004 draft before he fell to the D-Backs at No. 15 because of signability concerns, showed big pop after being recalled last July. He opened his major-league career with a nine-game hitting streak and ran off a 13-game streak later in the season.  His pretty left-handed swing swats line drives to all fields with growing power. He's also got some speed and is an above-average fielder at short.  He’s still developing, so some patience will have to be had with him, but he should also be very good.  Most scouts feel he should wind up a better player than his brother J.D., especially from a health perspective. 
3. Chad Tracy (3B) – Tracy’s 2006 was a big of a letdown after his stellar second half in 2005, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t be a stud.  Part of the problem was that he was playing with a knee issue for most of the season, which also may have affect his fielding.  Still, Tracy has a lot of raw power and now that he’s healthy, he could be a dangerous bat to pitch to.
4. Conor Jackson (1B) – Jackson so far hasn’t hit for much power yet, but his outstanding plate discipline and his doubles total show that it should be coming soon enough.  He’s getting ready to hit his prime, so once he does, he’ll drop in the order and be a excellent cleanup hitter.
5. Carlos Quentin (RF) – Quentin is another solid young power hitter that should do great things for the Dbacks.  Quentin has good power and generally does a good job of working the count for walks, helping his on base percentage.  Interestingly enough, Quentin also gets on base another way.  He was by 43 pitches in '04, 29 in '05 and 39 in '06.
6. Eric Byrnes (LF) – Byrnes had a horrible 2005, though a big reason for it could have been the fact that he was moved twice during the same season.  However, he recovered nicely during the season, playing a good centerfield and establishing himself (again) as a player who could hit .275 with 20 homers.  Byrnes will slide over to left to make room for Chris Young, and should be a solid defender.  He murders left handed pitching and that will come in handy against some of the lefties in the division.
7. Chris Young (CF) – Obtained in the Javier Vasquez deal, the White Sox are kicking themselves for giving up this young talented prospect.  Young is an exceptional athlete with great power and speed and he projects similar to Carlos Beltran.  He’s one of the best defensive players in the minors and has great range and instincts in the field.  The only knock on him is that  his plate discipline is a bit of a weakness, as he’ll never hit in the .300’s, but he’s going to be a very VERY good player.
8. Chris Synder (C) – A talented young catcher that defends well and calls a great game, Synder is a threat late in the order and has some doubles power that helps get him on base, as well as drive in a few.

Bench

• Jeff DaVanon (OF) – This valuable fourth outfielder has some power and runs the bases well.  He can play all three positions well.
• Alberto Callaspo (UTIL) – Callaspo can play most of the infield and may be able to be serviceable in the outfield. He can hit for average and has some speed, but he’s really a utility guy.
• Miguel Montero (C) – A road blocked prospect, the Diamondbacks look like they’re more than happy to have Montero on the bench for this year.  Montero has great contract skills and can draw his share of walks.  He should eventually be a average catcher, but for the moment he’ll be a dynamite backup.
• Tony Clark (1B) – Surely Clark can’t be done already.  Just one season after he hit 30 home runs, Clark is buried under the depth chart.
• Scott Hairston (OF) – Hairston is a capable utilityman that can hit and could be a productive regular, but he strikes out and is hurt too much.

Down On The Farm…

The Diamondbacks system is loaded, and most of this top-level talent is the direct result of the work of Rizzo and his staff. One of the best and most respected scouting directors in the business, Rizzo departed this summer to join the Washington Nationals as the Vice President of Baseball Operations, where he is in charge of all scouting operations. Tom Allison, who spent the last eleven years in the scouting departments of the Mets and Brewers, replaces Rizzo and has some big shoes to fill. We're talking clown-sized shoes, but in the meantime, the Snakes are stacked.

• Doug Slaten (LHP) – Slaten profiles to be a solid lefty reliever if he can work at it.
• Dustin Nippert (RHP) – One of the few starting pitching prospects in the Arizona system, Nippert has been fiercely protected by the Diamondbacks, who believe that he’ll be a excellent pitcher one day.  Nippert has decent stuff, and his height (6’7”), helps his low 90’s fastball and his solid curve have more movement.  However, Nippert has consistency problems and has struggled in two major league call ups.  He’ll likely be back in Triple A Tucson for the moment, where the Dbacks hope he can be an option in the rotation sometime during the season.
• Mark Reynolds (???) – Reynolds has a problem, namely that the DBacks have had a hard time finding a position for him.  He’s played the entire infield and left field in his career, and has hit well in all of the positions except first base.  He hits well for power, but that power has come at a price, as seen by his 109 strikeouts in 387 at bats.  He also can’t play any of the mentioned positions well. 
• Micah Owings (RHP) – Another talented arm, Owings is a big, durable right hander that held his own in Triple A in his first full season.  Owings has a fastball with great velocity and has a good slider, but his lack of a third pitch leaves his long term future questionable, as he really has no out itch.  Hence, Owings projects to be a back of the rotation starter or long man.

In Conclusion

This team will contend, as the lineup and the pitching staff are all extremely solid.  The bullpen is slightly suspect, but the Diamondbacks will scare many in the division this year.

Final Standing:  Second in the National League West.

Lots of responses to the Blue Jays and Pavano posts yesterday.  Love it!

Let's see where the hat wants to go today....

Okay cuziffer.  Quit your ####ing.  The hat picked your Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee entered 2006 off of the high of breaking even at 81-81, hoping to parlay that success into a winning record and a possible playoff berth.

That didn’t happen, thanks to a rash of injuries that ran across the Brewers like wildfire, gutting the offense and the pitching staff.

However, the core of that team remains intact, as most of the young Brewers are now a year more experienced and a lot savvier about what lies ahead of them.  Doug Melvin was also able to add further young talent to the team by trades of veterans, plus the addition of a big free agent signing.  Will that translate into wins?  Let’s check it out.

Starting Rotation

1. Ben Sheets (RHP) – When Sheets is healthy, he’s easily one of the top five starters in baseball.  Key word is, healthy.  I think he’ll be fine this year, as he certainly missed enough time last season that he should be healthy.  The Brewers hope I’m right, as a healthy Sheets could be enough to push him right over the top.
2. Chris Capuano (LHP) – Capuano is developing into a solid number two behind Sheets.  Capuano has good stuff, as his fastball, slider and changeup are all solid pitches and he gets good movement off of all of them.  He didn’t get much run support, hence the losing record and he gets killed by right-handed hitters.  Much of this is the result of leaving pitches high in the zone   If he can correct that, he should see his success increase, though some more run support would be nice as well.
3. Jeff Suppan (RHP) – Suppan is a solid innings eater that adds depth to the Brewers’ lineup.  However, the key to Suppan’s success has been and always will be the defense behind him, as he relies on groundballs to help him get outs.  Hence, for Suppan to succeed, he’ll need a little help from his friends, but he’ll also need to help himself by relying a little more on his stuff. 
4. Dave Bush (RHP) – Bush was obtained from the Lyle Overbay deal, and so far he’s looking like the biggest steal of the trade.  Bush’s best pitch is a slow curve, and he also features a low 90s fastball with good movement, plus a changeup that tends to be hit or miss.  The changeup is a big reason why lefties hit .289 against him.  Still, he’s an excellent young starter that should help keep the Brewers in games.
5. Claudio Vargas (RHP) – Acquired in the trade for Doug Davis, Vargas is a flamethrower that can hit 97 and partners that pitch with a hammer curve.  However, Vargas has two major problems: durability and the lack of a breaking pitch.  Vargas needs a third pitch to sustain any success, plus he’s a six-inning pitcher that flames out once he reaches the 7th.  Still, as a fifth starter, should be fine.

Bullpen

• Francisco Cordero (Closer) – Cordero was excellent after coming over to Milwaukee (1.69 ERA and 16 saves).  However, Cordero is very inconsistent at times, which is the reason why he lost the closer’s job in Texas.  I think he’ll be solid enough to go for 30 saves, but expect Milwaukee to be somewhat worried during the times he gets on the mound.
• Derrick Turnbow (Setup Man) – Turnbow pitched well enough in the first half to earn a spot on the All-Star team but then collapsed spectacularly, blowing eight saves in '06 and a 13.06 ERA in his final 27 appearances, leading to the addition of Cordero in the Carlos Lee trade.  Turnbow will still setup and he should be suitable, but the question of whether or not he can handle the rigors of closing will be an issue if Cordero starts to meltdown like he did with Texas.
• Brian Shouse (LHP) – A lefty specialist, Shouse tends to get pounded by right-handers. 
• Edward Campusano (LHP) – Selected from the Cubs in the Rule V Draft, Campusano is a decent lefty reliever that is a strikeout machine, thanks to a good fastball and slider combo.  He’s likely going to be groomed into the successor for Brian Shouse.
• Matt Wise (RHP) – Wise is another capable reliever that can help keep a lead as well as work for multiple innings.
• Greg Aquino (RHP) – Aquino is another solid setup man that also can serve as a emergency closer, as he served in the role back in 2004.
• Jose Capellan (RHP) – Capellan was a fairly reliable option last year, leading the club with 61 appearances.  He did give up far too many homers for the rotation to feel safe (11 in 71.2 IP).

Starting Lineup

1. Bill Hall (CF) – Hall makes the transition from shortstop to center field, reminding many of when Robin Yount did the move.  Hall does seem to have the speed and range to do the move, and his bat should translate very well there.  He’s got the best chance to succeed at leadoff, so he’ll bat there according to my chart.
2. Rickie Weeks (2B) – Weeks has all the talent in the world to be a masher in the lineup, but injuries cut short a promising Rookie campaign.  Weeks has a powerful, quick bat as well as oodles of speed to make him a threat once he’s on base.  The big problem is that he’s rather poor as far as defense goes at second, though to his credit he’s trying to improve.  He’s likely going to bat second.
3. Prince Fielder (1B) – Fielder has the best power presence in the lineup and put up an excellent rookie campaign last year.  Fielder carried the Brewers through much of the year last year as one player after another went down for the count, which was unfair to him and may have been a cause for all the strikeouts.  Still, he set a franchise rookie record with 28 homers and led the team with 81 RBIs, while showing some growth as a hitter.  He’ll be batting third in the lineup.
4. Corey Hart (RF) – I’m not sure if he wears his sunglasses at night, but he certainly earned a full-time job after hitting eight homers in the final two months of the season.  He should be a little better than average over the course of a season, as the power is there for him to be a 25 home run threat.
5. Corey Koskie (3B) – Koskie has good left handed power and can play well at third. However, he’s far from a lock at this position, as the Brewers may decide to shop him to allow Ryan Braun to take his spot in the lineup.
6. Johnny Estrada (C) - Estrada was sent to the Brewers in a six-player trade that sent Doug Davis to the Diamondbacks.  Oddly enough, this is the second time Estrada has been booted from a team when a younger, equally talented player rose up to take his place.  Weird.  In any case, Estrada brings a solid bat to the Brewers lineup and is a solid defender.  Provided that the rest of the team stays healthy, Estrada will give more depth in the back of the order.
7. Geoff Jenkins (LF) – Jenkins is less than thrilled with the attempt to platoon him.  While there is no doubt that his offense is average to say the least, the fact that lefties murdered him last season makes it hard for him to make an argument against the move.  He may be traded, but at the moment, I have him as the starter.
8. J.J. Hardy (SS) – Hardy is pretty decent at shortstop as far as his defense is concerned.  However, it’s the bat that draws the most questions, making this move seem a lot like a gamble.  The Brewers are hoping that Hardy will translate his minor league successes into production at the majors, or else they’ll be hunting for a shortstop come June.

Bench

• Tony Graffanino (INF) – Graffanino is able to play all four infield positions while providing a solid bat. He isn’t a really major power bat, but he’s got doubles power, works the count and has some of the softest hands in the game.  With J.J. Hardy remaining a injury risk, he’ll get playing time.
• Craig Counsell (INF) – Counsell was also brought in to provide some backup in case the injuries that took out both Hardy and Weeks decide to attack again.  Counsell lost the starting job in Arizona to Stephen Drew after an injury and after it became clear he wouldn’t return, he went back to Milwaukee.  Counsell is another fading player, but he can still hit for average and can play the entire infield as well.
• Kevin Mench (OF) – Mench is a outfielder that can hit for good power and, to be honest, should be hitting in the middle of the order.  However, he’s a very streaky hitter and hasn’t been able to put it together.  He’s recently stated that he refuses to be part of a platoon.  Unfortunately, it looks like he’ll be a part of one whether he likes it or not.  There’s a very real possibility he could be traded.  Or the real possibility that he will be kidnapped by Cuziffer and kept in a secret bunker beneath his house until the end of the 2007 season.
• Damian Miller (C) – Miller is settling back into a backup role, which is good for him at this point in his career.  He should be a very good backup and will play mentor to Estrada.
• Gabe Gross (OF) – Gross has a lot of potential to be a starter, but at the moment he’s buried beneath the outfield logjam.  That could change if the outfield corners open up, but he should be good off the bench.

Down On The Farm…

The Brewers have drafted well for the most part since Doug Melvin took over the team.  There is a lack of major league ready talent thanks to the recent graduations, but there are some players that could make an impact, as well as players that will be arriving in the future.  The most frustrating issue of the system is the lack of progress of 2004 first rounder Mark Rogers, who hasn’t gotten beyond the low minors thanks to injuries.

• Ryan Braun (3B) – Braun is the Brewers’ best positional prospect at the moment.  He’s got great pitch recognition and good bat speed that allows him to hit the ball to all fields and has good doubles power as well.  He’s still learning how to play third, however, and his arm is inaccurate.  But the bat is almost ready and Braun may be needed sooner rather than later, as the Brewers need a power bat to hit behind Prince Fielder.  He could knock either Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench out at left field or knock Koskie out at third.  I think it’ll be the latter.
• Yovani Gallardo (RHP) – Gallardo isn’t mentioned with the likes of Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes, but he belongs up there.  He dominated High A and Double this season, much as Bailey and Hughes did and his stuff is impeccable.  He’s got a low 90’s fastball plus a hard slider and a plus curve.  He’s got a rather benign changeup, but he’s got enough tools to where he could step in the Brewers rotation if one of the starters implodes or if Ben Sheets decides to make the disabled list a favorite place to visit again this year.  I love Gallardo.  He's a badass.
• Tony Gywnn Jr (OF) – Junior Gywnn isn’t quite the player that his father was, but he’s an excellent player in his own right.  He’s extremely athletic with great instincts in the outfield and has loads of speed to go with a nice left handed swing and an excellent eye at the plate.  He won’t hit for much power, but the Brewers think he has enough doubles power to make him more than a one trick pony.  Though many have him making the team, I seriously doubt that the Brewers will have him in the majors as a bench player, having him accrue service time, when he could get regular playing time in the minors.
• Lanyce Nix (OF) – Nix was given all the chances to try and prove himself to Texas, but he squandered all of them.  He’ll likely spend the early part of the season in the minors, but I’m not sure what his future is going to be now.

In Conclusion

I actually think that the Brewers could win this division.  However, I like the Astros’ offense and their bullpen a little more, which I think will be more than enough to carry their pitching staff into the post-season.  However, Milwaukee will mount a very strong challenge to the Astros and, should their starters implode and the Brewers’ collective health remain steady, they could win the division in an upset.

Final Standings:  Second in the National League Central