Well, this post was meant for yesterday.

Then I got the dreaded WHOOPS sign, just after I had posted and deleted my file.

So anyhow, I retyped the whole thing, only to see that the system had indeed saved some of the data.

Ugh.

I’m giving serious consideration to leaving FoxBlogs and trying to hook on with RealSportsBloggers or go independent

New York Mets - Team Preview

The Mets have had their offseason dominated by one subject.

Lastings Milledge.

Okay just kidding.

Seriously, the Santana deal was an absolute coup for the Mets, who add the ace they’ve sorely needed for pocket change and upside.  However, the Milledge deal hurt the Mets badly, as it saw the exodus of talent in exchange of overpaid vets that really had no business starting for any team, and yet are going to be counted on to be a big part of the Mets’ title hopes. 

Starting Rotation

• Johan Santana (LHP) - Credit Omar Minaya for this, he was able to exploit a volitile situation and was able to bring in the best pitcher in the league.  Santana is flat out dominant and has proven to be a horse in the past few years.  While he does remain homer prone, he is moving to the National League and will have a excellent defense and lots of pitchers parks to play in.  He's also likely going to be the defacto Cy Young award winner for the next four years or so.
• Pedro Martinez (RHP) - Pedro looked like the Pedro of Old when he came back last year, showing that he could be dominant even without his old fastball.  The arrival of Santana pushes Pedro down to the Number Two slot, where he'll still be depended on, but not to be an ace and stopper as much.
• John Maine (RHP) - Maine is continuing to establish himself as a very good middle of the rotation option, though he did tire in the second half of last year.  Because Maine has missed time due to injury before, I'll chalk it up as simply fatigue, with the hope that it is just a part of the learning curve.
• Oliver Perez (LHP) - Talented, but inconsistent, Perez enters his walk year ready to cash in.  Perez has greatly benefited from moving to the Mets and he certainly has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, but he's just so damn inconsistent.
• Orlando Hernandez (RHP) - I'm not sure what exactly Hernandez has left, but he's a decent option here as the fifth starter.  Don't expect him to make 30 starts this year, though.

Bullpen

• Billy Wagner (Closer) – Wagner still is a solid closer, though he did experience some dead arm last season.  If the Mets pen is able to be solid, perhaps the Mets could limit Wagner’s aging arm and give Heilman some opportunities, if only to save their best reliever for October.

• Aaron Heilman (Setup Man) – Heilman has found his nitch as a setup man, though a rough start did cause him to lose some of his luster.  Still, quality setup men are a commodity and the Mets have a good one here.

• Duaner Sanchez (RHP) – If the Mets pen is to rebound, they sorely need Sanchez to return to the form he flashed after they acquired him from the Pirates.  If his numerous injury troubles are behind him, Sanchez could lighten the load on both Heilman and Wagner. 

• Scott Schowenweis (LHP) – A impressive twelve game stretch with the Reds got Schowenweis a big payday from the Mets.  Now, he’s likely going to be limited to mop up duty.

• Matt Wise (RHP) – A shrewd move by Minaya, Wise is a good middle reliever that was cut by the Brewers for some unknown reason.  He should be able to give them some innings, especially in a bad El Duque start.

• Jorge Sosa (RHP) – Sosa was a adequate swingman last season for New York and will contribute out of the pen this season, serving as a shadow for certain starters and as a spot starter/long man.

• Pedro Feliciano (LHP) - Not bad as a lefty reliever, Feliciano completes the bullpen puzzle here. 

Starting Lineup

1. Jose Reyes (SS) – Despite the batting average, Reyes has improved a lot from last season.  He improved in almost every facet of his game and should continue being one of the premier leadoff men in baseball.    

2. Luis Castillo (2B) - Castillo's deal is kinda confusing.  He's clearly a player in decline and will likely be terrible the last two years of his contract as his speed continues to evaporate.  He's still a capable defender, however, though his range is declining slowly.  Anyhow, the Mets are considering the near future when it comes to Castillo, so this deal will be okay for the first two years, but almost horrible the last two.

3. Carlos Delgado (1B) - Delgado wasn't the force last season that he was in 2006, and though he says that the year shouldn't be held against him, it might be a sign of things to come.  Delgado is going to be 36 in June and will likely continue to decline, meaning don't expect to see power numbers close to .500 again.  The Mets will ride out the year, hope that Delgado may have enough left for one last ride before moving on to the next option, likely Mark Teixeira of the Braves.
4. Carlos Beltran (CF) - The best centerfielder in baseball, hands down, Beltran should continue to be a force with his blend of speed and power in the heart of the lineup.
5. David Wright (3B) - A flat out star, Wright is one of the best young third basemen in the game.  He can hit for power, is starting to improve on his walk total, while flashing a great glove and even some speed.  The lone flaw are the high strikeout totals.  Still, that’s only a minor quibble, as Wright could play on any team, save the Yankees (who have Alex Rodriguez).
6. Moises Alou (LF) - Alou still has a lot of thunder in his bat, but he's also not able to play everyday.  Still, he is a bargain and will be worth the millions he's getting paid to crush the ball.
7. Ryan Church (RF) - Church has some decent pop off of him, but he's very much mortal against lefties and likely won't sustain over the long hall.  He's a better bet to produce instead of Shawn Green, but Lastings Milledge should be a better player than Church over the next four years.
8. Brian Schneider (C) – The other part of the “bounty” from the Lastings Milledge trade, Schneider is not a starting catcher.  He’s awful on offense, he’s fallen apart defensively and really should be a backup, not a starter.  While he will be splitting time with Ramon Castro, the Mets were probably better off just keeping Johnny Estrada for the year and going after Kenji Johjima as a free agent.  Or, better yet, trade for a young catcher with Milledge as the bait instead.  

Bench

• Ramon Castro (C) - Castro has solid power as a catcher, but he has had problems making contact.  He's a solid reciever though and overall is a good backup to have.  He'll likely see an increase in playing time this year, as Schnieder is..well...awful.
• Ruben Gotay (INF) - Gotay has seemingly found use as a utilityman, though he’s stretched as a starter.

   

• Damion Easley (UTIL) - Still has use as a lefty killer, Easley will probably platoon with Church in right field.

• Endy Chavez (OF) – A decent fourth outfielder, Chavez has speed and is able to hit for an empty batting average.  Though it’s not recommended, Chavez may see a lot of time as a starter this season, which isn’t out of the question considering some of the age in the lineup.

• Angel Pagan (OF) – Not sure why the Mets would bring in Pagan, who is much like Chavez except cheaper.  Regardless, this is likely a move to ensure that in the event that Chavez is pressed into emergency starting duty, not unlikely considering the health and brittleness of Alou and Church, that they would be okay with a backup backup outfielder in the fold.

Minor League Notables

• Joe Smith (RHP) - A decent setup man, Smith could very well make the team out of Spring Training with a solid campaign.
• Eddie Kunz (RHP) - Oregon State's closer has a cannon of an arm, but his control is just so inconsistent that he might not be able to rise as quickly as other college closers.  Will that stop the Mets if they need an arm?  Not likely.
• Mike Pelfrey (RHP) - Pelfrey remains the best arm in the Mets' system, but his struggles at the major league level are starting to worry me.  He seems to have regressed, possibly because the Mets have rushed him, and partially because he is listening to Boras' coaches more than his team's.  This is likely a make or break year for him this year, as if he fails once more, he's likely going to be moved to the pen.
• Fernando Martinez (CF) – The Mets’ top prospect, Martinez has already been rushed through the system.  He’s got superstar potential, but the problem is that he’s just so raw.  He’s at least two years away.  Unfortunately, should the Mets suddenly have their outfield drop like flies once again, you just know they’ll rush Martinez. 

Final Analysis

The rotation alone is enough to almost guarnatee the Mets the division this year, but this team isn't without it's flaws.  Much of the rotation is a health risk, as is much of the lineup and the bench is rather thin.  I'm picking the Mets to win right now, but this team is one injury away from the Wild Card and Third Place.

Final Prediction - Division Winner, National League East

The Rangers Report – Offseason Edition

Rangers Had No Shot At Santana

The Rangers could have made a better offer than what the Twins actually got for Johan Santana.

While the Twins ultimately got a decent package of high upside prospects in Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey, the Rangers had the prospects to pull off a trade.  However, I won’t tell you what the trade would have been, though I can tell you it would have kicked the #### out of the Mets offer.

Santana wouldn’t have approved a trade here.

First of all, this isn’t exactly the best ballpark for a flyball pitcher to flourish.  Second of all, Santana, due to his no trade clause, would have vetoed a deal, as he had tremendous leverage over where he could go. 

While Santana would have given the Rangers a top of the rotation starter, there simply was no way he would have approved a trade here, even if the Rangers offered six players, many of them good ones (#### it.  RHP Eric Hurley, CF Brandon Boggs, SS Joaquin Arias, 2B German Duran, C Max Ramirez and CF Marlon Byrd), the Rangers wouldn’t even have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with him.  It just wasn’t feasible.

On A Side Note…

Oakland, going back to the Santana deal one more time, probably had a better package in return than the Twins got for Santana.  While I’m not high on the pitchers they received, Carlos Gonzalez should be a stud once he hits the big leagues and they got a hell of a masher in Chris Carter, who will be a beast once he comes up to the majors.

God I wish the Rangers could have gotten Carter.  Stupid Otsuka….

Fearing Bedard In Seattle

I am going to fear Seattle’s rotation if and when the Bedard deal is done.  While I should be happy about the fact that Seattle will be parting with some solid blue chippers, Bedard isn’t going to be a treat to face.  In fact, matching up Millwood and Padilla against Hernandez and Bedard would be like sending you out to a gunfight with only a pair of pistols, while the enemy is firing bazookas.  You have no chance (unless a rocket misfires, blowing up your opponent.  Ah Doom, how I miss thee…)

Bringing Ryan Back A Complicated Affair

Nolan Ryan is apparently interested in the vacant Rangers’ presidency gig and Tom Hicks has been active in courting Ryan to return to the Rangers.

However, actually bringing Ryan back is going to be a lot of work.

For starters, Houston might not be willing to let Ryan go, as Drayton McLane may decide to expand Ryan's role in terms of player development and decisions.  Plus, he enjoys the PR boom that Ryan gives the Astros, especially considering that he owns their Double and Triple A Franchises.

Which is another complications.  Would the Rangers allow Ryan to keep his two minor league teams?  Or would they force him to cede control of the franchises, likely to his sons Reese and Ried, if he's to be hired.

And if Ryan is indeed made President, how would that affect Jon Daniels' power.  J.D. has pretty much acted pretty autonomous and if he were to lose control over some of the minor league and player development phases (which have been vastly improved since he took over), how would that hinder his ability to run the big league club?

I love Nolan, met him once (nice guy), but as much as I love him to come back to the Rangers, I don't know if the overall impact (non-economic) would be worth it.

Bad Job Of Roster Management

If you haven’t already seen, the Rangers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment a few days ago, likely in anticipation of a Marlon Byrd deal that isn’t going to happen.

My only question is why?

I know that the Rangers have some higher ceiling pitchers on the roster, but Galarraga has plenty of upside and could wind up being a Chad Qualls type reliever in a couple of years.

Why the designation?

If anyone deserved to be DFA”d, it was Nelson Cruz, who would have made it through waivers and would have been given a Spring Training Invite along with a minor league deal.

Instead, Galarraga gets the axe and he’ll likely get claimed on waivers by a team without 40 Man space, likely the Astros, who have room in their system and 40 for him.

Unless there is a trade coming in the next few days that we haven’t heard about, this isn’t a good move and one that’s likely to blow up in the faces of the Rangers.  So far, there hasn't been word on him being claimed (8 days down, two to go.)  I only hope that the Rangers' luck holds out.

One Year Later, Still Irritated At Rod Barajas

I'm still pissed at Rod Barajas.

You cost us one extra draft pick after booking from your original deal with the Jays, you #### ####.

So full of hate that, one year later, he signs with them anyway.

Grrr.....

Will post the Prospect Six Pack Later.  I got to break something.  Long day....

Now that the Santana deal is all but over, it's time to see what exactly will happen next.

I can tell you this much.  A lot more things are going to fall into place now that the deal has been done.

Here's what is likely going to happen:

1.  Bedard Deal Likely Going To Happen Soon

With the Santana deal likely gone, the Orioles should decide in the next couple of days whether or not to accept a deal from Seattle that will send Adam Jones and three or four prospects in exchange for their ace.  It would be a good deal for the Orioles, who would gain a franchise centerfielder, more pitching depth with Chris Tillman likely headed in the deal, as well as a potential closer in George Sherill, all of whom are named in the deal.  As for the Mariners, it's a lot of farm depth to give up, which I'd be hesitant to do for a palyer likely to test free agency in two years.  And even then, there isn't a guarnatee that Bedard would put Seattle over the top with the Angels and their strong staff in the divison.

2.  Final Decision On Sabathia To Be Made Soon

Look for also the Indians to decide once and for all on the fate of C.C. Sabathia, who is entering his walk year and likely looking for a contract similar to what Santana will get.  Sabathia recently refused a 4 year, $70 million extension and wants a lot of money for a lot of years.  While Sabathia is an excellent young pitcher, his condition habits have to give one pause.  The union will also be pressuring Sabathia to hit free agency, due to their desire to increase player salaries all around.  Personally, I think the Indians are going to ride out the year before seeing Sabathia likely sign with the Yankees, who covet Sabathia and asked the Indians about a trade midseason.

3.  Remaining Free Agent Starters To Find Homes

Also, it's about now that we'll the remaining big free agent starters find homes.  Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez and others should have their phones ringing now that the Santana and Bedard dramas are nearing their respective ends.  This may work out to the benefit of several teams, as Colon, Lohse and Hernandez have all been looking for multiple years in contracts.  After having to wait for a while, they may be more willing to settle for fewer years.

4.  Blame to Be Assigned In The Bronx

Now that the actually Santana trade has been agreed to, look for blame to be assigned among the Yankees staff. 

Hank Steinbrenner will likely blame Brian Cashman for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal that could have seen Santana in pinstripes, saying that while prospects are fine and good, acquiring a legitimate ace of the staff outwieghed any possible risk of said prospects coming back to haunt them.

Cashman will likely disagree, stating that the price in prospects was simply too high.  However, when you consider that you were, essentially, sacrificng Chein Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera and what appears to be now Ian Kennedy for Santana, the sacrifice really should have been an easy one.  Say yes.

The fighting will likely turn ugly and should provide further proof that Cashman is out of New York at the end of the year.

5.  Crisp Situation Now Front Burner

Now that the Santana deal has been resolved, look for Boston to finally decide what to do with Coco Crisp.

While the entire Santana drama was playing out, many of the spots that were logical places for the Red Sox to send Crisp to addressed their centerfield needs via trade or free agency, resulting in a much smaller market for his services.

Now, really, there are two places where the Red Sox could concievably go to shop Crisp around, three if you count Oakland and their sudden dearth of prospects, two if you realize that Oakland has no intention of shopping any of them just now.

Minnesota is the place where, ironically, the Red Sox could ask if they're interested.  The Twins, now in full fledged rebuilding mode, could offer back a bullpen arm, possibly Jesse Crain, though a package from Boston for Joe Nathan would be much more plausible.

The other place is Baltimore, which could use Crisp and has some minor league depth to deal from, if Boston would prefer a player that isn't as close to free agency and could develop into something promising.

Or the Red Sox could just hang onto Crisp, though that would likely result in a lot of resentment from Crisp, who wants to start.  Say all you want about choosing to start for a bad team or being a fourth outfielder for a great one.  Most people would still prefer a starting gig.

This could turn out ugly if nothing is resolved soon.

Coming up later today!  My Super Bowl Spread Plans!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, the national nightmare is over, as it looks like the Twins will trade Johan Santana to the Mets.

But what did they get?

As seen in my last post, Santana Circle Jerk, the Twins in essence are gambling on the upside of Carlos Gomez and Delois Guerra instead of the certainty of a Jon Lester, a Phil Hughes or a Jed Lowrie.

Guerra and Gomez could blossom into superstars.  But both have massive flaws.  Guerra has been pushed hard by the Mets, but is still young and has some projection.  He also has trouble getting out of the high 80's on his fastball, which means the Twins are hoping he'll add velocity as he matures.

As for Gomez, he too has been rushed and needs at least another year and a half of minor league play if he's to live up to his high potential. 

And really, its on Guerra and Gomez that the Twins are pinning their hopes and dreams on, as Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey are both decent arms, but not aces and don't differ much from the Scott Baker type pitchers the Twins already have in their system.

Really, as I've stated earlier, the Twins could have had a better offer from the Red Sox (Lowrie, Lester, Crisp and likely Justin Masterson) or the Yankees (Hughes, Melky Cabrera and change.) 

But I think that there is another reason why the Twins agreed to this swap.

When something of ours disappears, we as people try to replace it as closely as we can.

And in Guerra and Gomez, the Twins are trying to replace Torii Hunter and Johan Santana as best they could, by trying to find similar players that could become their second comings.

It's a human reaction, albet a flawed one.

It's possible that in three years, both Guerra and Gomez could be superstars, making the Twins look wise in their deal.

It's also just as possible that both are massive busts.

I credit Omar Minaya on this deal, as he was able to get the best pitcher in baseball without giving up his best prospect, centerfielder Fernando Martinez, who also is a rushed, but promising young player.  He gave up nothing that he'll really miss and no one that isn't replaceable, as the Mets could easily go out to the Dominican and sign any remaining young prospects that haven't signed with teams to help replenish the farm.

I would feel pity for the Twins, but really, this is a mess of their own making.  They're choosing the riskier, but more lucrative path of gambling on the upside of some risky prospects.  It's the equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with three of the cylinders loaded for a fortune.  The payoff is huge.  So is the failure...

Grades:

Mets Grade - A
Twins Grade - B

I've had about enough of the Johan Santana rumor mill.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that he'll be there opening day with the Twins and will remain with them till at least the trade deadline.

Why?

Because it's becoming increasinly obvious that there is a lot of chatter from all sides, but no action.  Usually, the more rumors that are passed around about a player, the more unlikely it's going to happen.  It's like talking the whole night how you're going to go after the prettiest girl in the room, but at the end of the night, you're going back home to nothing but a hard drive full of porn and a full box of kleenex.

Sorry for the visual analogy, but that's what it's become in the Santana Sweepstakes, which have become nothing more than just a lot of shock jock fodder and a whole lot of New York centric media opinions (oh god, the New York media opionions!  Newsday has become unreadable!)  I swear to god, if I hear one more Hank Steinbrenner quote, I'll go up to Yankee Stadium myself and stuff his father's turtleneck in his piehole, just so he'd shut up!

BTW, is it just me, or is Steinbrenner the Younger seeming to enjoy the limelight that comes with his new job.  I think he's likely to follow in his father's footsteps, which means that the Yankees will be sucking in about five to eight years, thanks to Hank trading away the farm and signing the various Mel Hall and Danny Tartabull types on a whim.

The fact is, a trade should have already happened, as Boston, New York and New York should have pulled the trigger on a deal.

And spare me the talk about how Santana would require a huge contract extension that makes him unaffordable.  All three of these teams would be lining up to get into a money fight for Santana if he hits the market next winter.

And the Yankees are the last one's to be preaching fiscal responsibility.  Didn't they just spend $275 million on Alex Rodriguez?  They can easily afford to extend Santana, who fills a need and has more upside to any Yankee prospect with the exception of Joba.  They have $58.3 million coming off the books anyway, not counting the sunk costs of $6.95 million for paying Giambi and Pavano to go away.

Don't snicker Red Sox fans.  You all aren't any better.  You have about the same amount of money leaving the books, with Manny and Varitek's contracts coming off the books.  And you have the farm system depth to fill the holes as well. 

The Twins too also have to be reasonable.  You aren't going to get a team to completely gut their system for Santana.   It's unrealistic.  You need to get teams to agree to a reasonable set of demands and flip as soon as the best deal comes up. 

Financial reasons aside, here is what the Twins should reasonably expect to get for their ace:

• 1 High Quality Pitching Prospect
• 1 High Quality Positional Prospect
• 1 Above Average Pitching Prospect
• 1 Average Prospect Or Young Player

Here are the offers for each team:

Boston - Jon Lester (LHP), Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), Justin Masterson (RHP), Coco Crisp (CF)

I honestly don't know why the Twins haven't agreed to this deal, as it matches up with my qualifications perfectly.  I think the Twins are hoping that Boston will toss in Clay Buchholz, which won't happen.  Lester is an above average lefty who could be a number two starter.  Lowrie could start for Minnesota now and be the best second baseman they've had since Chuck Knoblauch.  Masterson has the potential to be a good pitcher in this league and Crisp helps give Minnesota a solid outfield for the first time in years.

New York (AL) - Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Jeff Marquez (RHP), Mitch Hillgross

This is insulting, actually.  While Hughes is very good and I like Marquez to be a solid innings eater in the NATIONAL league, the rest is just ####.  Cabrera is a average regular, not a star and I don't blame the Twins for shooing away fhe Yankees with this offer.  If you want to give me something to think about, here is what I would ask for:

Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Ian Kennedy (RHP), Alan Horne (RHP)

And before Yankee Fans jump on me, consider this.  Kennedy has been highly overrated since he was drafted and has been made to be a lot better than he is by the Yankee spin machine.  He is, at best, a average pitcher with excellent command and is at best a Number Three pitcher, nothing more.  He's not the second coming of Mike Mussia, who had better stuff than Kennedy at the beginning of his career.  Horne has good stuff, but is injury prone and likely a bullpen guy in the end.  Cabrera is an average regular, not a star. 

New York (NL) - Carlos Gomez (CF), Delouis Guerra (RHP), Phil Humber (RHP), Kevin Mulvey (RHP)

A good offer, it's better than what the Yankees are offering and it sends Santana to the NL, where he wouldn't haunt the Twins.  However, I would ask for Fernando Martinez, who has a chance to be a star, instead of Gomez.  That would trump the Red Sox offer and if I had that deal on the table, I'd take it and run with it.  Guerra has a chance to be a solid Number Two pitcher, Humber an inninsg eater, and Mulvey a solid 3.  That's not a bad return.

Oh, and by the way, Omar Minaya is a fool for not agreeing to trade Gomez back in November for Matt Garza, who had a chance to be the best pitcher on the Mets' roster.  The Twins should thank him, as they got Delmon Young in the deal, who is a lot better.

Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be inundated with more of the Santana claptrap, with more rantings for Hank Steinbrenner, more of us seeing Theo Epstein's Fraiser Crane impersonation with him saying "I'm listening", and more pleas from Omar Minaya for the Twins to accept his good, but not great offer. 

So sorry folks, we'll be listening to three more months of the same #### till Spring Training ends.

This is a quick update to Tuesday's On The Block.  Today's On The Block will be posted shortly...

On The Block - Johan Santana (again...)

Well, the trade acquistions of Delmon Young and Brendan Harris have changed what exactly the Twinkies will want in return for Santana and, subsequently, changes the amount of bidders available.  The Twins will now likely look for a centerfielder as well as near ready starting pitching, and positional players.  Harris is merely a stopgap shortstop and would actually be better at third base, assuming that the Twins go with Alexi Casilla and not the awful Nick Punto and second.

Here's who is going to likely not have a match:

• Texas Rangers – Not that Texas was ever really in it, but this kinda kills any offer the Rangers could send.  A package could be built around Hurley and Salty, but Kinsler wouldn't be as attractive. 
• New York Mets - The Mets now have no shot to even interest the Twins.  The best thing they could do would be to try and acquire one of the Twins' lesser arms for an outfielder, but there isn't anything the Mets have that could interest Minnesota in any way.

That leaves four teams that realistically could trade for Santana, three of them the same from Tuesday, one of them new....

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Boston Red Sox – Boston actually now would make the most sense, as they could send the Twins a good looking package of Jed Lowrie, a shortstop, Jon Lester, a ready made pitcher, Coco Crisp, a centerfielder, and likely a fourth prospect, possbly Brandon Moss, another outfielder, which could DH for the Twins, or something else.
• Los Angeles Angels – Artie Moreno and Co. look like their willing to go all in this offseason, with the acquisitions of Garland and Hunter.  It would be tough to see who Santana would replace, though it would likely come at the expense of Jered Weaver, a pitcher who is nowhere near as good as he's made out to be.  The Angels could offer Minnesota a package of Reggie Willits, who could man center and bat leadoff, Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, both of whom can play shortstop, Weaver, who could slot in right away, and likely a fourth prospect, maybe Mark Sweeney, a power hitting first baseman in the lower minors.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers MIGHT be able to make a deal now.  Since the outfield is now out of player, the Dodgers would likely have to center a deal around Andy LaRoche, their top third base prospect, Chin-Lung Hu, their top shortstop prospect, as well as Clayton Kershaw and one more player.  That would be too rich for me. 
• New York Yankees – The one team that the Young trade screws over the most is the Yankees, who now not only have to include Melky Cabrera in a trade, but would also have to include Robinson Cano, along with Kennedy and Hughes for a deal to work.  And before the Yankee hate mail comes it, there aren't ANY positional prospects in the Yankees' minors aside from Austin Jackson, thanks to a lot of pitching centered drafts.

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now...Traded To The Boston Red Sox for SS Jed Lowrie, LHP Jon Lester, OF Brandon Wood and CF Coco Crisp.

Will A Trade Happen - Yes.  The Twins are nowhere near close to competing in a very stiff AL Central and the window with this current nucleus closed about two years ago, making a rebuilding effort long delayed.  At the very least, the trades of Santana and Joe Nathan would allow the Twins to get enough young pieces that the farm has failed to produce to put together a nice, young talent core to mount a challenge to the Indians and Tigers in two years.

Alright, just a quick rundown on the Santana Sweepstakes.

On The Block – Johan Santana

The reason for this?  Why not?

The Why:  Santana is entering his walk year and the Twins have already made it known that they won’t give him Barry Zito’s deal to keep him, mostly because of owner Carl Pohland, who one of the cheapest owners in sports, and they may want to see if they can acquire talent for him to help the club in the long run, as the system is starting to run a little dry thanks to some over-conservative drafting.

The Rumored Asking Price:  Three to four good prospects, that are either ready to start immediately or are close to.

Can A Trade Be Done:  Yes, provided that a window for a contract extension is granted to the acquiring team.  Otherwise, no team is going to give up a top of low cost talent in exchange for a one year rental.

The Good:  Santana is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and could be the ace of ANY rotation.  He’s dominant, has proven to be healthy, and can pitch in the AL and has done so in many of the best hitters parks in the league.

Potential Hang-ups:

• Money – It’s going to be costly to extend Santana, who could be baseball’s first $20 million pitcher.  That’s a LOT of money and many couldn’t afford him. 
• Prospects – The Twins want high ceiling talent and a lot of it, which is going to make things difficult, as many teams simply don’t have farm systems that deep to send the necessary talent back.  So, that limits the amount of people that are legitimate suitors even further. 

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Boston Red Sox – Ummm, Boston apparently would be interested in Santana (but it makes no sense really, as they have a solid rotation already that is very cost effective), but they would likely offer the Twins a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and probably infield prospect Jed Lowrie, plus a player to be mutually decided on.  The problem is that they would only give up Lester and would balk if asked for Ellsbury or Buchholz. 
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers certainly have the ammunition to try and make a deal, with them offering a package that would include Andy LaRoche, their top third base prospect, Andre Ethier, who could start in left field, Matt Kemp, who would start in right, and likely Chad Billingsley, the top lefty prospect in the minors.  That is a hell of a package and would give the Twins immediate bonuses to three of their lineup spots while giving them a stud pitching prospect as well.  The problem is that Dodgers owner Frank McCourt might not like the price tag it would take to extend Santana. 
• New York Mets – Omar Minaya seems determined to make a huge splash, and has said he’s saving his trade chips for a front of the rotation pitcher.  There’s just one problem:  most of the Mets’ prospects suck.  Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey have had their stocks take hits and they lack many other positional players to send back to Minnesota.  The best thing they COULD do would be to see if the Twins still want to do that Matt Garza-Carlos Gomez swap.  I’d be all over that in a second.
• New York Yankees – The Yankees are sure to be in on Santana, and apprently, after the Game 4 loss to the Indians, they immediately called the Twins asking what it would take to build a package around Chein Ming Wang to get Santana.  This was purely rumor, but any deal involving Santana would likely involve New York.  Wang wouldn’t be attractive to the Twins as he’s going to be getting expensive short and he really isn’t what they’re looking for.  They’d likely ask for a package centered around Melky Cabrera and one of the Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain duet, with Robinson Cano thrown in for good measure.  The Yankees would likely balk and try to see if Ian Kennedy would get the job done, after which they’re promptly be laughed at and hung up on.  That’s really how it would go down, as New York is so protective even of their worst prospects that it’s hard to get a deal done.  However, with Hank Steinbrenner spilling the beans about the negotiations to get him, this deal may have legs after all.
• Texas Rangers – Texas certainly has the ammunition to make a deal, with a package likely having to center around Eric Hurley, their top pitching prospect, Ian Kinsler, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which would allow them to use Mauer at DH more often.  It would be a good trade package, but wouldn’t be enough to compare with what other teams may offer. 

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now...Traded To The New York Yankees For RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Ian Kennedy, CF Melky Cabrera and OF Austin Jackson

Will A Deal Ultimately Happen – Yes.  Frankly, the Twins could see themselves as being able to bounce back in contention with the return of Francisco Liriano, but let’s be reasonable.  The Twins also have a lot of holes and their owners’ reluctance to spend money means they can’t buy themselves the necessary fixes to help remedy the problem.  As a result, they’ve got to move him now to be able to at least reload with their current nucleus.

The Red Sox Top 15 will be up later, right now I have something that just set me off that I saw on Sportscenter (had no choice, was at the Gym and it was either that or reruns of ER.  And I hate ER.)

Steve Phillips was asked for his recommandations to the Dodgers on how he would make their team a World Series contender.  After hearing him talk, I quickly wondered what reality he was talking about. 

Here are Phillips' takes, more or less, and my own, in full unedited glory.

Step 1 – Trade for Miguel Cabrera or Sign Alex Rodriguez

First off, I will credit Phillips with correctly identifying the Dodgers' need for power in the lineup.  However, this is the wrong way to go with it.  If you take Phillips’ later assumptions into account, it’s going to have to be Rodriguez or nothing, as the Marlins currently are assembling a list of players that they are targeting from different organizations that they would want in return for the potential Hall of Fame hopeful.  One of those is almost certainly going to be Clayton Kershaw, a young lefty that is going to be as good as Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz. 

Kershaw would have to be sent back in any deal that for Cabrera, that's a given.  It was Kershaw that was a sticking point in the Dodgers' failed negotiations this past summer for Mark Teixeira.  

As for A-Rod, he'll cost nothing but money, but it'll be a WHOLE LOT of money. 

My Solution - Why Not Settle With What you have in house?  The Dodgers have a perfectly good third base prospect in Andy LaRoche, who has hit the batting line of .295/.525/.901 in the minors and has averaged 18 Homers and 61 RBIs in an average of 90 games per season.  Why not give him a full season to prove that he can hit?  He's a lot cheaper than Rodriguez or Cabrera and would give a power boost to the lineup as well.

And if you must get rid of LaRoche, go after a cheaper first baseman to save some money for what is about to come next.  The Rangers would be happ to give up Hank Blalock straight up for LaRoche.  The Pirates would be willing to give up Freddy Sanchez if it meant getting LaRoche. 

The only possible way of getting Cabrera might be asking the Marlins if they'd be receptive to a deal of a paid for Juan Pierre (solving their centerfield issue), LaRoche (solving third while improving the infield defense) and including Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton.  That woudl be the only way I could see a deal for Cabrera working, though I would prefer to just use LaRoche.

Step 2 – Sign Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, or Torii Hunter to play centerfield and move Juan Pierre to left

Yikes.  Here's another bad idea.

Pierre is a terrible outfielder and has a weak arm as well.  He's probably one of the worst contracts signed in the Ned Colletti era. 

Philips said that acquriing one of the three centerfielders mentioned above would not only improve the offense, but also improve the defense as well.

Here's an idea, which would work with Philips' plan and would still have the desired effect.

Trade Pierre for whoever you can get, preferrably a reliever or a swingman to help the pen and the rotation if necessary.  Second, play Etheir (provided he's not traded, of course) in left, and play Matt Kemp, a blossoming young monster, in right.  If you get Andruw Jones, which would work, in center, congradulations.  You just improved the outfield defense and upgraded the offense to boot.

Step 3 – Trade For Johan Santana

Ooookay, where to start.

Provided you haven't already traded Kershaw, going after Santana creates more problems than it does solve any.

First off, you would immediately open a hole in right field, as it would likely require a package of Kershaw, Kemp and LaRoche to get Santana, even if you do get him to agree to a contract extension. 

Guess what, you just opened a hole in right and third base.

You could play Ethier at right, but I like his bat better in left field.  And it would make the necessary the addition of a Rodriguez and a Andruw Jones in order to fill those holes, leaving you with a much more expensive roster which wasn't necessary in the first place.

The Dodgers could enter next season by making only one foray into the free agent market and that would be it:

Starting Lineup

• Furcal (SS)

• Martin (C)

• Kent (2B)

• Loney (1B)

• Kemp (RF)

• Jones (CF) - Brought In Via Free Agency

• LaRoche (3B)

• Ethier (LF)

Rotation

• Penny (RHP)

• Lowe (RHP)

• Billingsley (RHP)

• Schmidt (RHP)

• Wolf (RHP) - Brought Back

Contracts Traded For Bullpen Help - Pierre (CF) to Marlins For Kevin Gregg (RHP), Nomar Garciaparra (1B) To Texas For Akinori Otsuka (RHP)

And there you have it.  I'm done.  That team I just put together should win 88 games, maybe 90 if the team stays healthy and the youngsters develop.  There was no need to go spend foolishly on several players that may not have been worth it.  That's the reason why you have a farm system.  So you can eventually have young, cheaper, higher upside pieces to build around and eventually contend with.

And all without having to mortgage my best pieces in the farm and to keep the payroll more or less reasonable in the long run.

I'm beginning to understand why Phillips was tossed out so quickly by the Mets.

He just sucked.

Wow, I go off for training and the Baseball World goes bananas.  Well, I'll update the Kris Benson situation later, but for right now, let's check out the next team drawn out of the hat...

Hmmm, the hat chose to stay in the AL.

Minnesota Twins

I thought I was right last year when I predicted that the Twins would fall off last season and finish third in the division last year.

Then the Twins went out and won the AL Central.

So you wouldn’t think that I would go with them to win this year.

Nope.  Ain’t happening.

Here's why...

The Twins are now wihtout two-fifths of that rotation from last year, with Francisco Liriano out for the season and Brad Radke retiring.  Plus, with the other powers vastly closing the gap between the Twins, plus the amount of youth and inexperience that the Twins will be putting in, things could get ugly really fast.

 Starting Rotation

1. Johan Santana (LHP) – He’s the one sure bet among the Twins pitchers, with most of the rotation being made up of question marks or youngsters.  Santana should continue to dominate the American League and will probably be among the league leaders in ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts.  But none of the will matters, as the Twins are in some trouble as far as the rest of the rotation is concerned.
2. Matt Garza (RHP) – I would prefer that Garza spend another year in Triple A before heading into the rotation, but with the losses of Radke and Liriano, Garza will be forced to be the Number Three starter for the Twins.  Garza was forced to step up for the Twins midway through the season, and was hit hard, as expected for a starter with only one year of pro experience, which was said to have exhausted his arm.  He is also still learning how to mix in all of  his pitches, also chalked up to inexperience.  Theoretically, Garza has enough skills to become an All-Star.  The only thing left for him is to learn by the seat of his pants.
3. Carlos Silva (RHP) – Liriano’s unfortunate need for TJ resulted in Silva having to return for another year.  Silva doesn’t look like he’s going to be much more than a pitcher that will rack up some innings, maybe break .500, and will look very ugly doing it.
4. #### Bonser (RHP) – Bonser has been underrated for years and is in reality a very good pitcher that has a lot of upside.  Inexperience will hurt early on, but he’ll likely be a useful pitcher that can eat innings in the back of the rotation that could provide a dominant performance every now and than.  My long term forecast is that he is on average a 13.12, 4.20 pitcher per year, very similar to Joe Blanton of the A’s.
5. Glen Perkins (LHP) – Perkins is a power lefthander, throwing a fastball that sits at 90-94 mph and striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.  He complements the heater with a hard curveball.  The problem is that Perkins is VERY flyball friendly, which will give the outfield defense a workout.  With the Twins needing starters (and does anyone really expect Sidney Ponson to make the team), Perkins will likely be in the final rotation spot.

Bullpen

• Joe Nathan (Closer) – One of the best closers in the business, Nathan has dominated baseball without much fanfare.  Nathan has been pretty healthy the past few years and I doubt that will change anytime soon.  Minnesota needs to get something done with him in order to keep him around for the remainder of his career.
• Juan Rincon (Setup Man) – One of the best setup men in the business can spot close if Nathan needs a day off.
• Jesse Crain (RHP) – Teams continue to contact Minnesota about the availability of this 7th inning performer, as he is could enough to close on most teams.
• Pat Neshek (RHP) – This sidearm pitcher gives a different look to complement quality setup men Rincon and Crain.
• Matt Guerrier (RHP) – Guerrier had a solid season by the numbers, but looking closely, he was lights out in May and August, lit up in April and June, and average in September.  Weird.
• Dennys Reyes (LHP) – Solid lefty finishes off a very strong bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Luis Castillo (2B) – Castillo was a solid addition to this team, bringing Gold Glove defense at second while serving well as a lead off man.  His only flaw is a lack of power, but with his solid hitting skills and his base stealing ability, he should continue to provide on base skills at the top of the order.
2. Nick Punto (3B) – After spending almost his entire career as a middle infielder, Punto will most likely be the Twins’ starting third base option.  Punto doesn’t have the power usually associated with an infield corner, but he’s a solid hitter and can get on base. 
3. Joe Mauer (C) – The best young catcher in the game today.  Mauer comes into the season as the defending AL Batting Crown holder and continues to establish himself as one of the games elite catchers.  He should continue to hit well above the .300 mark and could continue to improve his power.  Mauer emerged as a run producer last season and should help set up the mashers behind him.  The Twins were smart enough to lock him up for the next four years.
4. Michael Cuddyer (RF) – Cuddyer finally developed into the run producer Minnesota hoped he would and is entering his prime as a hitter.  He seems to have found his niche in right field and should help anchor a solid Twins offense for the next few years, until he begins to get expensive around arbitration time.
5. Justin Morneau (1B) – The AL MVP (should have been Mauer), Morneau also developed the power that Minnesota had hoped he would exhibit, batting .345 with 28 homers and 113 RBI’s after May 9th.  He’s likely to continue growing as a hitter, as he’s only 25, and will give the Twins another solid slugger in the heart of the order.  Like Cuddyer, there is also a question of whether or not Morneau will be moved as he becomes more and more expensive during arbitration.
6. Torii Hunter (CF) – Health has been a bit of an issue for him in recent seasons, but Hunter should be solid for at least one more year.  He might be able to hit for a high average (not likely) with some power (probably) and will provide some solid defense.  But he’ll probably start to decline after this year, thanks to the toll the injuries that have tacked up over the years.  He’ll probably miss time this year too.
7. Rondell White (LF) – White became somewhat competent as the year went on.  He’ll likely hit for some power and play some decent defense, but I wouldn’t look for him to be a long-term option in Minnesota. 
8. Jason Bartlett (SS) – Bartlett emerged as a solid shortstop as the season went on.  Bartlett can hit for high averages and with some power and could be a base stealing threat as he gets older.
9. Jason Kubel (DH) – Kubel has got some power, but realistically, he’s not what you’re looking for in a DH.  He’s penciled in right now because I’m not sold anyone else (and he’s listed as such on the Twin’s website.)

Bench

• Mark Redmond (C) – Redmond is a high-quality backup and a strong clubhouse leader.  The only thing he lacks is a strong bat.
• Jeff Ciriillo (1B/3B) – Cirillo's primary position in his career has been third base, but he also has the ability to back up first and second. He also brings a solid bat, as he batted .319 with three home runs and 23 RBIs in 112 games and 263 at-bats last season for Milwaukee.
• Lew Ford (OF) – Useful fourth outfielder can play all the outfield positions.  Can’t hit a lick, though.
• Jason Tyner (OF) – Powerless bat off the bench can hit for average.  And that’s it.
• Glen Williams (IF) – Utility guy has some power.  If I had to pick a non-roster invitee to make the team, it’s him, unless the Twins sign a power option, then he’s it.

The Disabled List

• Francisco Liriano (LHP) - Liriano is shut down for much of the year thanks to Tommy John and won't be due back until September at the latest.  I don't expect the Twins to activate him unless he recovers from TJ really really fast, but even then, he might not have the velocity or the control to help Minnesota.

Down On The Farm…

• The Twins system is big on pitching, not so big on offense.  They’ve tried to fix this deficiency by drafting bats in early rounds in recent years, but none of those picks will make an impact this year, with the lone bat being groomed into Luis Castillo’s successor.
• Kevin Slowey (RHP) – Slowly doesn’t have solid stuff, but his command rumored to be the best in the minor leagues, which allows him to outmaneuver hitters rather than blowing them away.  He could see some time during the season, if Silva or one of the other pitchers flames out or ends up on the DL. 
• Alexi Casilla (SS/2B) – A switch hitter that is actually quite similar to Luis Castillo.  He’s being groomed to be his successor and will likely spend the year in Triple A.

In Conclusion

The Twins have lost far too much in their rotation and are depending largely on the best pitcher in the league, a retread, two rookies that should be back in Triple A for the year, and a fourth man in the rotation to carry them to the playoffs.  I don't think it's enough for them to get by again.

Final Standings:  Fourth In American League Central

Team Preview Update:  The Baltimore Orioles

Kris Benson's season ending rotator cuff surgery kills any chance of the Orioles putting up respectability in the division.  Now, the rotation is much shallower behind Bedard and will depend much on the hopes and dreams that the other pitchers can somehow put something together.  While the Orioles would be better off giving the spot in the rotation to one of the youngsters, Hayden Penn being the best option, they will likely overpay for a starter that really has no business starting in the American League.  Expect a long season for the guys in Camden Yards.

I think there's a method to the Yankees' recent attempts at restocking the system.

They're preparing a package for Johan Santana.

Think about it.

Santana is under contract for 2007 and 2008, after which he becomes a free agent. 

Do you honestly think that the Twins, with their payroll limitations, will be able to put together a strong enough offer to make him stay, especially after Barry Zito, a lefty who's ability can't hold a candle to Santana's, obtained a 7 year, $126 Million deal.

I doubt it.

Plus, the Twins play in a very difficult division.  Take into account the Tigers, White Sox, and Indians.  All three teams feature solid offenses.  All three also feature solid starting rotations and two out of the three also have solid rotations.  It's even possible that the Indians could revamp their pen and again be considered in the mix for the AL Central Crown.

Meanwhile, the Twins' rotaton, once a area of depth, is now starting to look something like the Bataan Death March, with only Santana being the sure thing out of the entire mess.  Plus, Joe Nathan won't be around forever and he'll likely fly the coop once he hits free agency.

And should the Twins begin to find themselves in a huge hole, much like the Indians did last season, maybe they would be inclined to listen to offers for their star, who seems to be on the fast track to Cooperstown.

The Yankees would likely flip many of the prospects that they aquired in the deal, such as Humberto Sanchez, plus some of their own farm system depth.  They likely won't offer Hughes, but could offer Tyler Clippard, a Mike Mussina-ish right hander, and other position players as well.

This is all speculation, of course.  If anything, the Twins wouldn't trade Santana until next year, if at all.  Maybe they would prefer to settle for Compensation Draft Picks.

But, after looking at the recent fire sale of the Marlins, and witnessing how well it turned out, maybe the Twins might gamble on something similar.

Who knows.  It could happen.