Three more previews after this. Let's see who we got left...
Two words.
Le Tigre
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers arrived on the season two years earlier than most people expected, winning the Wild Card and making the World Series for the first time in ages, riding the backs of solid veterans and electrifying rookies. They could have won the Series, if the Tiger pitching staff didn’t seem so keen to help the Cardinals. The Tigers have made some additions to the lineup, hoping to add some more plate discipline and power to a team that lacked a lot of it during the course of the season. Will it work? Let’s find out.
Starting Rotation
Justin Verlander (RHP) – Verlander has some of the best stuff in baseball and can easily become one of those rare ace pitchers that can dominate on any given day of the week, no matter who he’s facing. However, I do think Verlander will experience some growing pains, as his arm has been such a drastic workload over the past two years. He rose very quickly through the ranks of the Tigers’ farm system and piled on the innings on what is still a very young arm, and the effects were seen during his terrible August. Even though he had rest this past season, I do think Verlander will labor come summer.
Kenny Rogers (LHP) – Rogers provided leadership to a young staff and was dominant in the post-season (though that was tainted thanks to whatever the hell was on his hand during Game 3 of the World Series), plus was able to log in innings, keeping a dynamic bullpen rested. It’s not known what he’ll be able to give the Tigers this year, as he’s getting older and 40 year old pitchers are a bit of a ticking time bomb.
Jeremy Bonderman (RHP) – Bonderman just continues to get better as he distances himself from that horrible rookie year when he went 6-19 with a 5.55 ERA. He recently signed a four year contract extension, buying out the first two years of his free agency and ensuring that this young rotation stays together for as long as possible. Bonderman should continue to improve and go over .500 for his career sometime this year, plus break the 4.00 ERA barrier.
Nate Robertson (LHP) – Robertson is a solid young lefty who throws with some surprising velocity for a lefty, with his fastball clocking in the low 90s most of the time. His slider is a plus pitch and that mixes well with it. The real problem is that he tends to lose control as the innings go one, causing him to throw it up in the zone. He’s a solid fourth starter, but he’s better than that. He needs to get more consistent.
Mike Maroth (RHP) – Maroth was off to a great starter in 2006 until bone chips ended his season. Maroth doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his command is impeccable, giving him a chance to locate the ball wherever he wants to. There is talk that Maroth is on the trading block, but until he’s actually dealt, he’s the fifth starter and should be one of the best ones in the league.
Bullpen
Todd Jones (Closer) – Jones is merely a serviceable closer that can get guys out mostly due to smoke and mirrors. I really don’t expect him to be the closer at the end of the year.
Joel Zumaya (Setup Man) – Zumaya is setting up for the moment, but he’s going to be the closer next year, if not sooner. Zumaya has that amazing fastball plus a solid breaking ball that he mixes in to give him a solid mix. Should Jones falter, expect Zumaya to take the job and run with it.
Fernando Rodney (RHP) – Rodney was effective as a setup man as well and also did some spot closing as well. It’s possible that Rodney could be shopped if a team is in desperate need of a possible closer.
Jose Mesa (RHP) – Mesa has been a closer through much of his career, but the Tigers have brought him in to help the setup corps, possibly as a 6th or 7th inning guy.
Wilfredo Ledezma (LHP) – One of the reasons why the Tigers are eager to trade Maroth is that they view Ledezma as a starter. His stuff is certainly good enough to handle the role, but right now as the lone lefty in the bullpen, Ledezma will function as a reliever until a spot opens for him.
Edward Campusano (LHP) – Campusano was picked up in the Rule V Draft and was tremendous at Double A. He’s got a great fastball that clocks in the mid 90’s plus a strong slider that sets it up well. As a Rule Five pick, Campusano has to stick in the majors to stay with the Tigers, but he’s got enough of a track record of success that he’ll be a solid lefty bullpen option right now.
Jason Grilli (RHP) – This solid right hander completes the bullpen, giving even more depth to a strong position.
Starting Lineup
Curtis Granderson (CF) – Granderson is miscast as a leadoff man, as his high amount of strikeouts kind of negate his average and kill his on base totals. The Tigers would love to be able to try and help him out by moving him out, but the only other guy on the lineup that can leadoff is Polanco, and he doesn’t really have the speed to do it. Granderson is a capable centerfielder that has good range and hands, and he’s got some power. Realistically, he should be batting about 7th.
Placido Polanco (2B) – Obtained from Philly in the Uggie Urbina deal (when the hell is he going to get out of jail anyway?), Polanco has been a solid second baseman for the Tigers, hitting well with a bit of power and displaying something most of the other Tigers don’t have: plate discipline. He can steal the occasional base and, hitting in the two hole, should be very productive in setting up the other hitters.
Gary Sheffield (DH) – The Tigers needed a middle-of-the-order hitter who provides more power and will walk more than he strikes out and that’s what they got in Sheffield, who will now be the DH most of the time. Sheffield is coming off a down year thanks to injuries, but his vendettas seem to motivate him into producing. He should be okay, especially since his departure from the Yankees was, to be blunt, fugly.
Magglio Ordonez (RF) – Part of the reason for the Tigers’ great rebound is that Ordonez was healthy for the first time in three years. Ordonez put up great numbers, though his power numbers weren’t the same as they were when he was in Chicago. Ordonez should be good for at least another year, but keep in mind that he’s 33 and that’s about the age when outfielder corners begin to get hurt. With three guaranteed years left in his contract, the Tigers are hoping that he doesn’t revert to his 2005 form.
Craig Monroe (LF) – Monroe is an underrated outfield corner that lead the Tigers in home runs last year. Monroe has great raw power, enough to maintain a 25 homer, 90 RBI output for a few more years. The big problem with him, as it is with most of the Tigers, is the strikeouts, which is why he isn’t hitting lower in the order.
Ivan Rodriguez (C) – People thought that Pudge was done as a starting catcher, but he’s actually been able to rebound and resurrect his batting average. Pudge has actually become a better catcher over the years and still calls a great game, but his power is beginning to go, which is trouble. He should be serviceable for this year, but long term, the Tigers need to figure out what exactly they’ve got to succeed him.
Sean Casey (1B) – Acquired last season, Casey was the one Tiger that showed up for the playoffs and as a result, earned a one year contract to stay with the team. Casey is a good defender, but it's his bat that makes him valuable. Casey has great plate discipline and is one of the few Tigers that can take a walk. He won't hit for power, but a average near .300 while batting second (he should be) will give the middle of the order some more RBI opportunities.
Carlos Guillen (SS) – Guillen is a so-so shortstop that was extremely productive last season, hitting .320 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI’s. It’s also the most time he’s stayed healthy over a season in his career. I don’t expect him to make it a habit, which is why he’s in the back. He also lead all AL shortstops in errors as well, making it possible that he could be switched to first base.
Brandon Inge (3B) – I’ve always thought that Inge was overrated. He’s got some power, but his lack of plate discipline negates a lot of that. Hence, Inge has the potential to be dangerous at the ninth spot, but he’s just so damn inconsistent.
Bench
Nelfi Perez (UTIL) – Perez was acquired after it looked that Polanco was done for the season. They since regard him as a mistake, but he’s stuck on the roster anyway. Perez is very limited offensively, but he’s versatile enough to handle second base, shortstop and third base.
Marcus Thames (OF) – Thames is a useful fourth outfielder that can display some great power off the bench at times. He should see some time in order to spell both Inge and Ordonez.
Vance Wilson (C) – The Tigers are confident enough in Wilson to keep them in games when Pudge takes a day off, but long term, he’s not the answer to succeed him.
Omar Infante (UTIL) – Infante is able to play most of the infield, as well as centerfield and can hit decently enough where he doesn’t take away for the offense too much.
Down On The Farm…
Like the New York Yankees’ farm system, the Tigers system is rich in pitching, but is lacking in positional players, with their best player, Cameron Maybin, being years away from any sort of contribution to the big club. Still, pitching is valuable and it’s possible that some of these kids may be valuable chips at the deadline.
Andrew Miller (LHP) – Miller has already seen time as a middle reliever last year (though that was mostly due to the fact it was mandated in his contract), but long term he projects to be a starter, much like Jeremy Bonderman. Miller has great size and his stuff was considered to be the best in the draft. He had a low to mid 90’s fastball that touches 98 at times and a hard slider that breaks nasty and is already considered to be major league ready. However, he has some control issues that he needs working out and he needs to refine his changeup some more into a plus pitch. All in all, he’s got the makings of a stud and could rise quickly if everything falls together properly.
Chris Shelton (1B) – Shelton is a bit mystifying at the moment. He had a great April last month, hitting .326 with 10 home runs, but only hitting four more for the rest of the year, resulting in him getting demoted. At the moment, it’s unknown where Shelton will end up. He’s a great bat of the bench, but the Tigers still have an option left on him and will likely demote him if they feel he needs more time to prepare, but clearly, time is running out for him to establish himself.
Roman Colon (RHP) – Colon is a flamethrower in the mold of Zumaya, who’s fastball clocks in the mid to uppe r90’s and he’s got great secondary pitches in his slider and splitter. Lefties murder him and there’s questions about his durability, making it possible that he may have to adjust to being a fifth starter or a long man.
Zach Miner (RHP) – Miner is another nice middle of the rotation pitcher that is has great success with good command of a low 90’s sinking fastball and a plus slider. Like Colon, efties murder him and his biggest critique is that he’s a little too tentative on the mound, but he’s an excellent three or four starter. Unfortunately, he ‘s going to be shut out of the Tiger rotation until a spot opens.
Jordan Tata (RHP) – Tata is a decent pitcher that can be a suitable swingman, as his secondary pitches aren’t strong enough to merit more than a fourth spot in the rotation. Tata, however, has good movement on all of his pitches and he maintains good control and command. He’ll likely be down in the minors again, though he could possibly beat out one of the other bullpen guys for the long relief job.
Eulogio De La Cruz (RHP) – At 5-11, 170, De La Cruz is a smaller player, but he’s got a relatively good arm. De La Cruz has a mid 90’s fastball that touches 98 and he has hit 100 in previous years. He sets it up with a great curve that has a lot of movement. The problem is that De La Cruz’s height works against him, resulting in less height, which means a little less movement. Depending on whether or not he develops a third pitch, De La Cruz could be either a power starter or a power reliever.
In Conclusion
Can the Tigers make it back to the World Series? Not this year. I think there is bound to be some sort of attrition for the Tigres as far as their starting pitching, but mark my words, they will be in the post-season. And sooner or later, they will win a Title, thanks to the strong pitching depth they have. But I do think that this club’s pitching will take a bit of a step back before they take that next step forward.
Final Standing: Second In The American League Central, Wild Card Winner
Okay, I've gotten some questions about Tex getting traded, so let's clear them up.
Yes, from what I could gather, there was talk about moving Teixiera, possibly for a starting pitcher and a pair of prospects. There was also something to the rumor of sending Tex to Detroit for Jeremy Bonderman, but there was a snag as far as sending prospects back to either team.
But, for the moment, Tex will stay in the organization, at least until next season. Here's why:
Lack Of Successor - The genius move of dealing Adrian Gonzalez instead of making him the Rangers' DH looks really stupid now, as Gonzalez was capable of playing everyday. Had Texas decided to keep him on the roster and start shopping Phil Nevin, the Rangers would have a cheap slugger at the DH that could also play the field. Instead, the Rangers are stuck without a ready replacement in the organization. The closest player they've got is Jason Botts, though his ceiling is extremely limited and he really isn't cut out to play first. After him, the only other option for Texas is to hope that prospect Nate Gold is really a late bloomer and ready to contribute to the team.
The Increasing Value Of Prospects - More and more teams are reluctant to deal prospects, especially pitching, when it comes to trading for veterens in their walk year. Where one team could make a killing off of trading a star on the verge of hitting the market to a contender (as the Yankees were able to do so many times), more and more teams are committed to keeping their prospects.
Lack Of Equal Value -- Texas would also get a hard time getting equal value for Tex. At the moment, I would price Teixiera as being worth one grade A pitching prospect, a type B pitching prospect, and a positional player, most likely a corner outfielder or infielder. Not many teams are willing to pay that, though the Tigers did overpay dearly to get Gary Sheffield away from the Yankees.
Michael Young - What would it say to Michael Young if the Rangers traded away their best offensive weapon? Remember, the Rangers want to keep Young in a Ranger uniform for life and trading away Tex would not only signal to Young that the team isn't willing to pony up the necessary cash to extend him, but that the team isn't committing to winning anytime soon.
So, that's the way things stand as far as the Rangers go. The only way I could see Tex go is if the Rangers are out of contention at mid-season of 2008, or if Gold is ready to step in.
Meyer Remains A Ranger
Infielder Drew Meyer, the Rangers' first-round pick in 2002, cleared waivers Monday and was assigned outright to Triple-A Oklahoma. Meyer, however, has been given an invite to major league spring training. Many people were surprised that Meyer was able to get outrighted, as first round picks often get some consideration whenever they’re dropped from the 40-man roster. It’s likely that no one wanted to spend a prospect to give him a shot. Meyer still profiles long term as a utility man and I still haven’t changed my opinion about him: he was a wasted pick.
Interesting Prospect Rankings
Sports Illustrated is having Bryan Smith, the co-founder of Baseball Analysts, do the top 75 prospects in the minor leagues. So far, there’s only one Ranger ranked. The following is taken directly from the website.
Hurley is the Rangers' top pitching prospect, though his 2006 went underappreciated due to his environment. Hurley spent most of the season in the hitter-friendly California League, posting a 4.11 ERA. Like Rockies farmhand Morales, Hurley struggled terribly in the California heat, allowing 24 earned runs in 22.1 innings between June 20 and his mid-July promotion to the Texas League. Also, Hurley had some bad luck; his LOB percentage was five percent below league average. Look for those two things to change substantially in 2007.
Pretty cool, huh. Oh, and just in case you all are curious and haven't gotten enough of pouring salt on the wound…
The White Sox's offseason approach of stockpiling young pitchers was admirable, and Danks was the class of their acquisitions. Chicago's long-standing pursuit of Danks is curious, as we have to wonder what lies in the Sox's scouting report that did not in the Rangers'. The team has shown a large interest in left-handed pitchers, and Danks is the best in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Danks has a clean delivery, yet pitching coach Don Cooper will spend the spring hard at work on Danks' fastball command. Danks' largest problem has been his home run ratio, so the White Sox will also have hard work to do on keeping his two-seamer, plus-curve and plus-change low in the zone.
Spring Training Storylines To Watch
Every two weeks, we’ll be presenting some storylines to watch for in Spring Training. This week, we’ll be handling the Prospects and Rookies.
Will Sammy Sosa make the team?
Sosa will be treated like any other non-roster invitee. He must earn his roster spot and hype and reputation won’t be taken into account. With that said, what are his chances of making the team?
I would say he's got an average chance to make the team, only because of the fact that the competition for the outfield/DH spot is so limited. At the moment, only Nelson Cruz is guaranteed to start (Right Field.) Frank Catallanotto will see time in left field and at the DH position, so he'll get his ABs. Kenny Lofton should start about 120 games in center.
Which leaves the Rangers with a field of Brad Wilkerson, Sosa, Victor Diaz, Marlon Byrd, Freddie Guzman, and Jason Botts for two or three roster spots.
First of all, none will play center, as it's likely that Jerry Hairston Jr will make the team and play middle infield and center. Wilkerson is also tolerable at the position, but his health concerns make it more likely that he shouldn't give it a shot.
It's likely that Guzman and Diaz will likely be headed back to Triple A, narrowing the field down. Wilkerson will almost certainly get playing time, if only to justify trading Alfonso Soriano, unless he gets traded. Which leaves two roster spots for Sosa, Byrd, and Botts.
I think Byrd will likely get released, making it a fight between Botts and Sosa. Depending on who outmashes the other, I'd say there's a 50% chance of Sosa making the team.
This isn't a decision to be taken lightly. If Sosa does make the team and is some semblance of his former self, he might bat as high as fifth, behind Tex.
What Will Happen With Akinori Otsuka?
Otsuka entered the season as the closer and was disappointed when the Rangers signed Eric Gagne and named him the closer. Otsuka hasn't taken the decision lightly and admitted in an interview that he would like to close, possibly elsewhere if he doesn't win back the job.
Otsuka is probably the most attractive closer on the market now that Mike Gonzalez is a Brave. The D-Backs and Red Sox inquired about him, but were turned off when Texas requested a starting pitching prospect in return.
I'm not opposed to dealing Aki, though I am a huge fan of his, but again, only if it brings back a starter (doesn't need to start right away) in return. I think as Spring Training and the early part of the season where's on, someone will bite, as there will likely be a closer that goes down early this year.
Who's the Fifth Starter?
The age old question, who is starting for the Texas Rangers.
Fortunately this year, it's not as dire.
With the rotation almost set, this is strictly for a fifth starter, which can be filled internally.
The Rangers have lefty John Koronka, who did a passable job last season, as the favorite for the job. But the Rangers are also going to experiment with Josh Rupe, a talented pitcher, sliding into the fifth starters role as well. But adding Rupe would make the rotation without a lefty, which isn't great considering the bats in the AL West. C.J. Wilson was talked about being converted back, but he's recently stated on his MySpace that he likes relieving and would like to be a closer in the future.
Who's the Odd Man Out in the Bullpen?
The Rangers have an abudnance of relievers at the moment. Aside from Otsuka and Gagne, the Rangers have Wes Littleton, Wilson, Rupe, Frank Francisco, Rick Bauer, Scott Feldman, John Rheinnecker, Ron Mahay, Joaquin Benoit, and possibly Edinson Volquez and Kameron Loe.
That's a grand total of 11, possibly 13 relievers competing for what looks to be a seven man pen.
It's likely that some of these guys will be spun off in trades for prospect depth, most likely starters or positional players (more on that next week), but the battle for the pen should be pretty interesting as Spring Training rolls on.
Here's a list of some of the pitchers that will hit free agency this coming off-season.
Jason Schmidt - Still a solid workhorse pitcher, but is beginning to climb up in the years some, plus he has a lot of milage on that arm of his. He'll be solid, but not spectacular and should become a middle of the rotation pitcher somewhere. Morisato's Pick: Seattle Mariners
Barry Zito - A solid lefty, could serve as the ace on several pitching staffs. He's going to be out of the price range for several teams. Really, is there any doubt where he's going. Morisato's Pick: New York Yankees
Andy Pettitte - Has had a crash of epic proportions in the first half of the season before bouncing back in the second. He's prone to health issues and is in his mid thirties, but still has great strikeout rates. If he's not your ace, he can contribute, but pray that the wheels don't fall off while he's working with you. Morisato's Pick: Houston Astros
Jeff Weaver - Believe it or not, he's throwing pretty much the same as he always does, he's just getting lit up a lot more. Weaver will probably not get a shot in the American League again, but could be okay if he's in a pitcher's park. Morisato's Pick: San Diego Padres
Mark Mulder - Rotator cuff issues killed his season, so Mulder will likely sign a one year contract with a team and try to justify his long term contract demands. Morisato's Pick: New York Mets
Vicente Padilla - Has proven that the AL is no trouble, as he's become arguably the best pitcher on the Rangers. He'll likely test free agency, but the whole hit tendancies to Vlad Guerrero and A.J. Piersinsky will turn off some people. Morisato's Pick: Texas Rangers.
Tomo Ohka - A good innings eater that does best as the fourth guy in the rotation. While he's had some rotator cuff injuries to deal with, he'll give some depth to a pitching rotation and takes the pressure off of the bullpen. Morisato's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Coret Lidle - Has proven to be a good pickup by the Yankees. Who knew? Still, he's not going to be back next season and will get someone to pay him the big bucks to be an innings eater elsewhere. Morisato's Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
Tigers To Deal Pitching.
The Tigers are currently suffering the same problem that seems to be plaguing the Oakland Athletics.
Too little offense.
The Tigers are sure to want to upgrade this during the off-season, which is why the Tigers are talking about dealing from their depth of starting pitching.
At the moment, the Tigers have a set rotation, though it's likely that they'll need to promote someone to replace Kenny Rogers. Their stable of minor league pitchers include promising prospects Andrew Miller and Wilfredo Ledesma.
The Tigers have discussed privately about dealing Jeremy Bonderman, who's nearing free agency and would bring in the impact bat that Detroit sorely needs. There's been also talk about moving other prospects for help, since after a while, prospects lose value.
The problem?
The Tigers are going to demand a kings ransom for their prospects. The Rangers discussed with the Tigers about Bonderman.
Their asking price?
Mark Teixiera.
If the Tigers are willing to come off their price a bit, I'm sure they'll find some pieces that will work out for them. If not, well, then we could have another case of the Los Angeles Angels.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.
