For the past three seasons, the Houston Astros have ruled the National League Central and have represented the National League in the World Series in each of those past three years. 

And now, well, both teams are currently occupying the cellar in the National League Central.

Such a collapse was inevitable, perhaps even predictable, when you see how both teams have fallen flat on their faces for much of the year.

What was the root cause of the collapses?

The reasons are many, but here are the three root causes,,,

1. The Improvement Of The National League Central.  Many of the analysts will state that the NL Central is the weakest of the six divisions.  However, consider the fact that the Brewers, the Pirates, and the Reds have all improved while the Cubs, who have also been down as of late, have begun to rebound after their down period.  Both teams found themsleves unable to dominate their compition as they once could and soon
2. The Loss Of Talent In The Farm System.  Both teams have sacrificed a lot of talent to sustain their winning streaks.  The Cardinals have traded away the likes of Dan Haren, Daric Barton, Kiki Calero, and other valuable prospects to acquire Mark Mulder, Jeff Weaver, and others to bolster the main club.  The Astros have been even worse, surrendering John Buck, Octavio Dotel, Jason Hirsh, Wily Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, Mitch Talbot and Ben Zobrist for expensive one year rentals of Carlos Beltran, Jason Jennings, and Aubrey Huff, respectively.  The result has been the depletion of their respective systems and no impact talent left in the upper minors to draw upon when veterens are struggling or are ineffective, or even to make more trades.  Neither team's situation is going to get better when you consider the draft pick compensation that has been lost due to the next reason..
3. Questionable Free Agent Signings.  Both teams have also let players go because of various reasons that are looking more and more terrible as time passes.  The Astros have allowed Andy Pettitte, a horse in their rotation, to leave to the Yankees.  They brought in Woody Williams and Preston Wilson, both of whom were or currently are performing badly for H-Town.  As for the Cardinals, they allowed most of their rotation to depart via free agency, such as Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and others, for fear of paying too much to retain them.  That arguement looks even worse when you consider the fact that not only are Suppan and Marquis, but that both are doing it for division rivals.

Can both franchises pull themsevles out of a rut?  It's possible, considering that both teams are littered with players that are underachieving.  But the more time that's passing, the more and more it looks unlikely that it's going to happen.

Lots of responses to the Blue Jays and Pavano posts yesterday.  Love it!

Let's see where the hat wants to go today....

Okay cuziffer.  Quit your ####ing.  The hat picked your Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee entered 2006 off of the high of breaking even at 81-81, hoping to parlay that success into a winning record and a possible playoff berth.

That didn’t happen, thanks to a rash of injuries that ran across the Brewers like wildfire, gutting the offense and the pitching staff.

However, the core of that team remains intact, as most of the young Brewers are now a year more experienced and a lot savvier about what lies ahead of them.  Doug Melvin was also able to add further young talent to the team by trades of veterans, plus the addition of a big free agent signing.  Will that translate into wins?  Let’s check it out.

Starting Rotation

1. Ben Sheets (RHP) – When Sheets is healthy, he’s easily one of the top five starters in baseball.  Key word is, healthy.  I think he’ll be fine this year, as he certainly missed enough time last season that he should be healthy.  The Brewers hope I’m right, as a healthy Sheets could be enough to push him right over the top.
2. Chris Capuano (LHP) – Capuano is developing into a solid number two behind Sheets.  Capuano has good stuff, as his fastball, slider and changeup are all solid pitches and he gets good movement off of all of them.  He didn’t get much run support, hence the losing record and he gets killed by right-handed hitters.  Much of this is the result of leaving pitches high in the zone   If he can correct that, he should see his success increase, though some more run support would be nice as well.
3. Jeff Suppan (RHP) – Suppan is a solid innings eater that adds depth to the Brewers’ lineup.  However, the key to Suppan’s success has been and always will be the defense behind him, as he relies on groundballs to help him get outs.  Hence, for Suppan to succeed, he’ll need a little help from his friends, but he’ll also need to help himself by relying a little more on his stuff. 
4. Dave Bush (RHP) – Bush was obtained from the Lyle Overbay deal, and so far he’s looking like the biggest steal of the trade.  Bush’s best pitch is a slow curve, and he also features a low 90s fastball with good movement, plus a changeup that tends to be hit or miss.  The changeup is a big reason why lefties hit .289 against him.  Still, he’s an excellent young starter that should help keep the Brewers in games.
5. Claudio Vargas (RHP) – Acquired in the trade for Doug Davis, Vargas is a flamethrower that can hit 97 and partners that pitch with a hammer curve.  However, Vargas has two major problems: durability and the lack of a breaking pitch.  Vargas needs a third pitch to sustain any success, plus he’s a six-inning pitcher that flames out once he reaches the 7th.  Still, as a fifth starter, should be fine.

Bullpen

• Francisco Cordero (Closer) – Cordero was excellent after coming over to Milwaukee (1.69 ERA and 16 saves).  However, Cordero is very inconsistent at times, which is the reason why he lost the closer’s job in Texas.  I think he’ll be solid enough to go for 30 saves, but expect Milwaukee to be somewhat worried during the times he gets on the mound.
• Derrick Turnbow (Setup Man) – Turnbow pitched well enough in the first half to earn a spot on the All-Star team but then collapsed spectacularly, blowing eight saves in '06 and a 13.06 ERA in his final 27 appearances, leading to the addition of Cordero in the Carlos Lee trade.  Turnbow will still setup and he should be suitable, but the question of whether or not he can handle the rigors of closing will be an issue if Cordero starts to meltdown like he did with Texas.
• Brian Shouse (LHP) – A lefty specialist, Shouse tends to get pounded by right-handers. 
• Edward Campusano (LHP) – Selected from the Cubs in the Rule V Draft, Campusano is a decent lefty reliever that is a strikeout machine, thanks to a good fastball and slider combo.  He’s likely going to be groomed into the successor for Brian Shouse.
• Matt Wise (RHP) – Wise is another capable reliever that can help keep a lead as well as work for multiple innings.
• Greg Aquino (RHP) – Aquino is another solid setup man that also can serve as a emergency closer, as he served in the role back in 2004.
• Jose Capellan (RHP) – Capellan was a fairly reliable option last year, leading the club with 61 appearances.  He did give up far too many homers for the rotation to feel safe (11 in 71.2 IP).

Starting Lineup

1. Bill Hall (CF) – Hall makes the transition from shortstop to center field, reminding many of when Robin Yount did the move.  Hall does seem to have the speed and range to do the move, and his bat should translate very well there.  He’s got the best chance to succeed at leadoff, so he’ll bat there according to my chart.
2. Rickie Weeks (2B) – Weeks has all the talent in the world to be a masher in the lineup, but injuries cut short a promising Rookie campaign.  Weeks has a powerful, quick bat as well as oodles of speed to make him a threat once he’s on base.  The big problem is that he’s rather poor as far as defense goes at second, though to his credit he’s trying to improve.  He’s likely going to bat second.
3. Prince Fielder (1B) – Fielder has the best power presence in the lineup and put up an excellent rookie campaign last year.  Fielder carried the Brewers through much of the year last year as one player after another went down for the count, which was unfair to him and may have been a cause for all the strikeouts.  Still, he set a franchise rookie record with 28 homers and led the team with 81 RBIs, while showing some growth as a hitter.  He’ll be batting third in the lineup.
4. Corey Hart (RF) – I’m not sure if he wears his sunglasses at night, but he certainly earned a full-time job after hitting eight homers in the final two months of the season.  He should be a little better than average over the course of a season, as the power is there for him to be a 25 home run threat.
5. Corey Koskie (3B) – Koskie has good left handed power and can play well at third. However, he’s far from a lock at this position, as the Brewers may decide to shop him to allow Ryan Braun to take his spot in the lineup.
6. Johnny Estrada (C) - Estrada was sent to the Brewers in a six-player trade that sent Doug Davis to the Diamondbacks.  Oddly enough, this is the second time Estrada has been booted from a team when a younger, equally talented player rose up to take his place.  Weird.  In any case, Estrada brings a solid bat to the Brewers lineup and is a solid defender.  Provided that the rest of the team stays healthy, Estrada will give more depth in the back of the order.
7. Geoff Jenkins (LF) – Jenkins is less than thrilled with the attempt to platoon him.  While there is no doubt that his offense is average to say the least, the fact that lefties murdered him last season makes it hard for him to make an argument against the move.  He may be traded, but at the moment, I have him as the starter.
8. J.J. Hardy (SS) – Hardy is pretty decent at shortstop as far as his defense is concerned.  However, it’s the bat that draws the most questions, making this move seem a lot like a gamble.  The Brewers are hoping that Hardy will translate his minor league successes into production at the majors, or else they’ll be hunting for a shortstop come June.

Bench

• Tony Graffanino (INF) – Graffanino is able to play all four infield positions while providing a solid bat. He isn’t a really major power bat, but he’s got doubles power, works the count and has some of the softest hands in the game.  With J.J. Hardy remaining a injury risk, he’ll get playing time.
• Craig Counsell (INF) – Counsell was also brought in to provide some backup in case the injuries that took out both Hardy and Weeks decide to attack again.  Counsell lost the starting job in Arizona to Stephen Drew after an injury and after it became clear he wouldn’t return, he went back to Milwaukee.  Counsell is another fading player, but he can still hit for average and can play the entire infield as well.
• Kevin Mench (OF) – Mench is a outfielder that can hit for good power and, to be honest, should be hitting in the middle of the order.  However, he’s a very streaky hitter and hasn’t been able to put it together.  He’s recently stated that he refuses to be part of a platoon.  Unfortunately, it looks like he’ll be a part of one whether he likes it or not.  There’s a very real possibility he could be traded.  Or the real possibility that he will be kidnapped by Cuziffer and kept in a secret bunker beneath his house until the end of the 2007 season.
• Damian Miller (C) – Miller is settling back into a backup role, which is good for him at this point in his career.  He should be a very good backup and will play mentor to Estrada.
• Gabe Gross (OF) – Gross has a lot of potential to be a starter, but at the moment he’s buried beneath the outfield logjam.  That could change if the outfield corners open up, but he should be good off the bench.

Down On The Farm…

The Brewers have drafted well for the most part since Doug Melvin took over the team.  There is a lack of major league ready talent thanks to the recent graduations, but there are some players that could make an impact, as well as players that will be arriving in the future.  The most frustrating issue of the system is the lack of progress of 2004 first rounder Mark Rogers, who hasn’t gotten beyond the low minors thanks to injuries.

• Ryan Braun (3B) – Braun is the Brewers’ best positional prospect at the moment.  He’s got great pitch recognition and good bat speed that allows him to hit the ball to all fields and has good doubles power as well.  He’s still learning how to play third, however, and his arm is inaccurate.  But the bat is almost ready and Braun may be needed sooner rather than later, as the Brewers need a power bat to hit behind Prince Fielder.  He could knock either Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench out at left field or knock Koskie out at third.  I think it’ll be the latter.
• Yovani Gallardo (RHP) – Gallardo isn’t mentioned with the likes of Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes, but he belongs up there.  He dominated High A and Double this season, much as Bailey and Hughes did and his stuff is impeccable.  He’s got a low 90’s fastball plus a hard slider and a plus curve.  He’s got a rather benign changeup, but he’s got enough tools to where he could step in the Brewers rotation if one of the starters implodes or if Ben Sheets decides to make the disabled list a favorite place to visit again this year.  I love Gallardo.  He's a badass.
• Tony Gywnn Jr (OF) – Junior Gywnn isn’t quite the player that his father was, but he’s an excellent player in his own right.  He’s extremely athletic with great instincts in the outfield and has loads of speed to go with a nice left handed swing and an excellent eye at the plate.  He won’t hit for much power, but the Brewers think he has enough doubles power to make him more than a one trick pony.  Though many have him making the team, I seriously doubt that the Brewers will have him in the majors as a bench player, having him accrue service time, when he could get regular playing time in the minors.
• Lanyce Nix (OF) – Nix was given all the chances to try and prove himself to Texas, but he squandered all of them.  He’ll likely spend the early part of the season in the minors, but I’m not sure what his future is going to be now.

In Conclusion

I actually think that the Brewers could win this division.  However, I like the Astros’ offense and their bullpen a little more, which I think will be more than enough to carry their pitching staff into the post-season.  However, Milwaukee will mount a very strong challenge to the Astros and, should their starters implode and the Brewers’ collective health remain steady, they could win the division in an upset.

Final Standings:  Second in the National League Central

Okay, time for my annual team preview.  Unlike last year, where I posted the divisions all together, I thought I'd break down the roster and forsee how the teams will fall together.  Teams are written in the order that I draw them out of a hat.

And the first is...

####.

New York Mets

The Mets dominated the National League East last season, riding a awesome offense along with a fantastic bullpen for much of the season.  But the rotation, thin at the best, was decimated wtih Victor Zambrano needing to undergo Tommy John and Pedro Martinez being shut down.  Thus, the team had to rely on unproven starter John Maine, whom I thought was a steal in the Kris Benson trade, the aging but still effective Tom Glavine, and the sudden resurgence of Orlando Hernandez.  The team was able to make the playoffs, but the lack of pitching cost the Mets dearly in the post-season, when they fell short against the St. Louis Cardinals, who's own pitching rose up to become dominant.

The off-season brought little relief, as the Mets underbid on Barry Zito, a pitcher they needed, who instead went to San Francisco.  The Mets' other option, Jeff Suppan, signed with Milwaukee when they failed to act.  So, the Mets are again having to depend on a staff that is too old and too young at the same time. 

Starting Rotation

1. Tom Glavine (LHP) – Glavine should really be in the middle of the rotation at this point in his career, but because of all the hell that the Mets have gone through as far as their rotation woes are concerned, he's their ace.  I think Glavine will get his 300th win this season, but asking him to put up a Cy Young caliber performance is asking too much of him.
2. Orlando Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was a non factor during his brief time with the Diamondbacks, but regained some semblance of his own dominance when he joined the Mets early in the season in the trade for Jorge Julio.  Much of this has to do with the fact that Hernandez moved from one of the most hitter friendly parks in the majors to one of the more pitcher friendly ones.  Hernandez can still eat innings like the old days, but his stuff has clearly fallen off the face of the earth.  He should be no more than a fifth starter.  On the Mets, he’s the number two.
3. John Maine (RHP) – Young starter that was deemed expendable by the Orioles wound up being the steal of the off-season.  Maine should be a solid middle of the rotation horse for many years to come. 
4. Mike Pelfrey (RHP) – A BIG Pitcher (6’7”), Pelfrey was forced to start only one year after he was drafted.  He did a good job, considering the circumstances, though it should be noted that he was quite raw at times, but that’s understandable.  Pelfrey’s got great talent, with his fastball that sits in the mid 90’s with good movement, occasionally touching 97, along with a cutter and a sinker and curve that scouts, Keith Law chief among them, think he should junk for a slider, which he started to in the AFL this season.  He’s got the potential to become a top of the line starter, but at the moment, Pelfrey will just be relied upon to keep the Mets alive at the fifth spot.  Depending on how strong Sosa and Perez do in Spring Training, Pelfrey will either be in the big club or back at Triple A.  I think he makes it.
5. Chan #### Park (RHP) – Park has really done nothing the last few years to prove that he's still capable of starting, but the Mets seem sold enough to give him a shot at the fifth starter's job.  I think Tomo Ohka would have been a better option.

Bullpen

• Billy Wagner (Closer) – Wagner was solid as the closer, as hoped, but he was shaky at times and looked very hittable at times, especially in the playoffs.  The off-season should have given him enough rest to be ready for another season, but, to be sure, the Mets should restrain using Wagner in tie game situations early on in the season.
• Aaron Heilman (Setup Man) – Heilman would prefer to start, but the fact is that he doesn’t have the repitoire to be a starter. 
• Ambiorix Burgos (RHP) – Burgos was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2000, and he took Royals’ scouts breath away with a fastball that hit triple digits.  Unfortunately, he never was able to master a proper slider or changeup to take advantage of his heater and as a result, he was disappointing enough that the Royals traded him to the Mets (though the Royals did obtain Brian Bannister, a pitcher who could do well for them.)  Burgos could be a valuable closer and setup man, provided that the Mets are able to develop him, which I believe the Royals failed to do.
• Scott Schoeneweis (LHP) – Schoeneweis was able to parlay 16 dominant appearances for the Reds into a megabucks deal.  Only Scott Boras could do such a thing.  Anyhow, Schoeneweis is a sinker-slider pitcher who's significantly more effective against lefties.  He’s likely going to be a LOOGY, which honestly, I’m wondering why the Mets went out to get him.  Surely there were better options available via trade…
• Duaner Sanchez (RHP) – One of the Mets’ primary workhorses in the pen, it was a car accident that ended Sanchez’s season.  The Mets liked him enough to bring him back another season.  Sanchez will likely pitch seventh inning duty, setting up Heilman.
• Pedro Feliciano (LHP) – Now here’s a solid lefty reliever.  Last season was Feliciano’s first full season tour of duty in the majors.  He rewarded the Mets with a 2.06 ERA and a 7-2 record.  His biggest problem is that he can’t fielding, making groundballs a problem when hit back to him.
• Jorge Sosa (RHP) – Sosa was signed off the garbage heap after being non-tendered by the Cardinals.  Sosa has below average stuff and had issues with his control for much of last season.  It’s possible that he could rebound, especially with a talented offense and a pitcher’s ballpark, but in the end, it’s all going to depend on his ability to reclaim some semblance of his 2005 season.  In spite of him being signed as a starter, I think he’ll most likely wind up in the bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Jose Reyes (SS) – A great little speedster, Reyes became the first player to swipe 60-plus bases in back-to-back seasons since Marquis Grissom in 1991-92.  He was able to increase is average last season thank's to an improvement in plate discipline, ad he's got surprising power in his small frame.  He was only one home run and three triples short of joining Willie Mays (1957) as the only players in history with at least 20 doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases.  His defense is solid and his range is pretty good as well.  The best part is that he's only 23 and bound to continue improving.  With Reyes now locked up long term, the Mets have ensured that this young talent isn't going anywhere..
2. Paul Lo Duca (C) – A solid number two hitter, Lo Duca doesn’t hit for much power, but he does hit for a pretty good average and he does a decent job of getting on base.  He’s also still a valuable catcher defensively and does a good job of managing his pitchers, though John Thompson will disagree. 
3. Carlos Delgado (1B) – Always a power hitter, Delgado has slugged at least 30 homers with at least 91 RBI in each of his past ten season.  While his batting average has dropped, he’s never really been a big batting average guy and he is getting older.  He remains a quality defender at first, but the most troubling stat on Delgado is his miserable .226 average against lefties and his declining on base percentage.  Still, all that side, Delgado looks like he’s got one more star caliber season before he begins to start seriously declining.
4. Carlos Beltran (CF) – After being regarded as a bust following a poor 2005 season, Beltran bounced back this past year, putting together a MVP caliber season.  Part of this is due to Beltran having protection in the lineup, though a lot also has to do with him finally being comfortable with Shea’s environment.  Beltran will be a solid middle of the order bat for years to come, plus the fact that he’s a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder helps matters a lot, don’t it?   The only knock on Beltran is the mediocre average and the fact that he doesn’t steal more often, but in reality, those are rather small quibbles about a quality player.
5. David Wright (3B) – A star n the making, Wright had a solid season last year and is a special hitter, looking to be capable of averaging at least a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 90 or more RBI per season, plus playing Gold Glove Caliber defense at third (he will win one, just you watch.)  The most troubling stat about Wright is his miserable second half of the season and power outage following the Home Run Derby.  Still Wright is young and will improve as he ages (he’s only 24 years old.)   Hence, Wright will remain a solid contributor to the Mets for years to come.  He’s just not going to be the main guy carrying the offense, as he struggled with that role in 2005. 
6. Moises Alou (LF) – Alou is 40 years old, but he’s still a potent bat and can hit for a fair amount of power.  He can murder lefty pitching and should be valuable in this lineup, especially since he’s not expected to be the focus of the lineup.  The only problem is that he’s having trouble staying healthy, meaning that the reserves will see plenty of time subbing for him in later innings and double headers. 
7. Shawn Green (RF) – Green isn’t the offensive force he used to, as he’s been losing power for the past three years.  He’s still got potential to be a late order threat, but as I said, he’s not the force in the lineup he was when he was with the Dodgers.  Even worse, he’s losing mobility in the field, making him an adventure in right.  . 
8. Jose Valentin (2B) – Becoming the starter in May, Valentin posted good numbers and earned himself a raise this season along with the starting job. 

Bench

• Julio Franco (1B) – Still going strong even though he’s in his late 40’s, Franco did fine in limited duty last season with the Mets. He still has some pop in his bat and did well in pinch-hit duty.  With Carlos Delgado getting older, Franco should figure to get some playing time to spell him.
• Endy Chavez (OF) – Chavez’s value is that he can capably play all three outfield positions well and has enough of a bat to be able to adequately fill in for you in a extended capacity without killing you. 
• Anderson Hernandez (SS/2B) – Hernandez is still young enough to where he could develop into an average regular somewhere in the middle infield.  With Jose Valentine getting older, Hernandez could get a chance, but I think his small build will cause problems for him.
• Ramon Castro (C) – A decent enough catcher, defensively.  Offensively, he’s a whole in the lineup about the size of Manhattan.
• Lastings Milledge (OF) – I believe that Milledge will make the team, as the health of Alou and Green are far from sure things.  Milledge has the potential to be a star, but things haven’t worked out for him at Shea, with the questions of his character and maturity coming up.  However, to be realistic, Milledge can contribute to the Mets this season, whether it’s spelling Alou or Green or even playing some centerfield to boost his trade value.  But at this point, there’s very little left for him to accomplish in the minor leagues.

Disabled List

• Pedro Martinez (RHP) – Well, the collapse of Pedro Martinez finally came, in which Pedro’s body finally broke down, resulting in Martinez getting shut down for the season.  The loss of Martinez was a big reason why the Mets lost in the playoffs, as the Mets counted on him solidifying the rotation and pitching well in the off-season.  Martinez won’t be available until at least July, and it’s unknown what exactly he can give the Mets when he comes back.
• Guillermo Mota (RHP) – Technically not on the DL, but there isn’t really a place to put Mota, unless I create a list called “Suspended List.”  Mota was dominant once he was sent to the Mets late in the season.  Then came the steroid bust.  Mota won’t be an option until late May, so we won’t see how much of that dominance was chemically induced until then.  If it turns out that his performance was legitimate, then Mota will allow the Mets to

Down On The Farm…

The Mets do have some talented arms in the system, but many aren’t ready to graduate yet.  So, aside from a few options, like Humber and Soler, both detailed below, there is little help coming anytime soon.  Thank god that the lineup is mostly set.

• Oliver Perez (LHP) – Perez was one of the most talented young lefties in baseball until something made him god-awful.  Perez won only three games last year, but did come up big in the post-season.  The Mets still believe in his talent, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him.  He’ll likely be sent down though, to try and get his mechanics worked out. 
• Philip Humber (RHP) – Drafted in the first round in the 2004 Draft, Humber did well in limited innings until he had to undergo Tommy John, which cost him all of 2005 (Rice players seem to have developed a tendency for injury.)  Humber was able to come back in 2006 remarkably well and his velocity came back with him, unusual so soon after undergoing TJ.  Humber works the strike zone and has a nice repertoire with a low 90’s fastball and a hard curve, as well as a power changeup.  His control is still iffy, a common symptom after TJ, but should improve as time passes.  Depending on what happens with the Mets staff, be it injury or ineffectiveness, Humber will get a look this season.
• Alay Soler (RHP) – I’m not high on Soler.  His stuff isn’t dominant, and his conditioning has always been suspect.  He’s also old for a prospect and the difference between his potential and his reality is small.  He’s likely going to evolve into a swingman.

In Conclusion

The Mets should have some competition as far as the division goes, but I think that overall, their offense should carry them to the post-season for the second time in a row.  How the pitching staff holds up is a difference story, as I don't trust that rotation to stay together the whole season.  Unless they make a deal for another starter, this team is not advancing to the World Series.

Final Standing:  National League East Division Winner

Okay, short week this week.  The Rangers Report will be posted tomorrow, with Friday Morning Closer posted early Friday before I head to Arizona for a wedding and hopefully an Arizona Fall League game.

Anyhow, with the labor deal finalized yesterday, here are my thoughts on it, from what I've looked over.

Higher Luxury Tax Threashold

The new luxury-tax threshold which should increase to around  $148 million and all the way to $178 million in 2011.  That's a lot of money you can spend without having to pay out to the other clubs.

What does this mean?

Salaries are going up.

Lots of teams are going to try and sign their younger players to long term deals, and free agency is going to be expensive from now on.  Likewise, you can also expect that prospects will become even more valuable, as the price of pitching and possibly offense goes up.  

The class of free agents about to hit the market is about to become cash in.  Jeff Suppan, who is the Cardinals' ace this post-season, is going to get paid big money.  Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to be even more expensive.  Barry Zito is doing cartwheels in anticipation of what he's going to get.  As a result, teams are going to have to put up or shut up and pay some of their players to stick around.

Who Will This Hurt - Lower Market Teams.  Teams that needed help externally for what the farm system didn't produce will feel the squeeze.  Kansas City now has to virtually grow their stars from within, as well as other markets such as Pittsburgh and Minnesota.  Oakland, who has remained virtually immune to the free agency bite thanks to Billy Beane, may have to start investing more of their money into their team to remain competitive.  Otherwise, they'll be foreced to watch stars depart on bad terms if they feel that the team forced them to take a below market deal.

Draft Pick Status

What I like to call the “Luke Hochevar” rule, where all players that are selected in the June amateur draft who aren't college seniors must sign by August 15.  That way, a player can return to college safely without having to compromise their education and teams are forced to make progress with their draft picks and not have the process stretch out as painfully as was seen in the Hochevar situation.

Who Will This Hurt - Boras Related Clients.  Boras related clients fall because of the fear of how much they'll demand for a signing bonus.  Now with the threat that these players may jump back into college to try and declare again, you may see a decrease in Boras clients being picked up in the later rounds, though this won't deter people who pick them in the first or second round. 

Draft Pick Compensation

Draft-pick compensation for losing Type C free agents is eliminated, and thank God for that, as there was nothing more ridiculous than seeing a team being awarded a free pick for a player that for the most part was either terrible or wasn’t good enough to retain on the roster.  Compensation for a Type B player will be changed from losing an actual draft pick to simply awarding the team a sandwich pick after the 1st Round.  Type A Players will still be a top pick and a sandwich pick, but now a player must be within the Top 20% at his position in order for a the player to be classified as a Type A.

Who Will This Hurt - Lower Budget Teams.  Teams have benefited from allowing free agents to depart and cashing in on the picks, namely Oakland, will find those higher picks harder to come by.