Barring any other moves, the Rotation appears as follows:
Kevin Millwood (RHP)
Vicente Padilla (RHP)
Jason Jennings (RHP)
Brandon McCarthy (RHP)
Kason Gabbard (LHP)
That makes for a solid, but unspecacular rotation. However, if Millwood, Padilla and Jennings improve to their 2006 seasons, rather than their 2007's, that's a potential playoff rotation, especially if McCarthy continues to improve and Gabbard doesn't implode. However, that's a lot to ask. If anything, at the very least, Jennings could bring back a draft pick, or pitch well enough that when Texas is out of it by May, they could begin entertaining trade talks and get back a good player or two.
Coco Crisp Deals Are Dead
There's been a lot of rumors tossed around, and a lot of talk from Red Sox fans that the Red Sox should send Coco Crisp over to the Rangers for one of their highly regarded catching prospects. Peter Gammons, in a recent chat, even had the Rangers (and Oakland) being the likely favorites for Crisp, seeing both teams as needing players.
They are delusional. It ain't happening.
Back when the off-season first started, there was talk that the Rangers and Red Sox had agreed on a potential Crisp for Gerald Laird swap. It was understandable, as it was two players who had no future in their respective organizations, had three cheap years of control left each and filled holes for each organization. The Rangers have no centerfielder and Varitek isn't going to last forever. It was a classic apples and oranges trade that should have worked.
However, the Red Sox instead decided A) to enter into the Johan Santana sweepstakes and B) change the offer for the Rangers, hoping to net more prospects and get a lot more value for Crisp than he was probably worth.
Texas backed out and instead got Josh Hamilton, who has some risk, but also a lot more of a ceiling than Crisp had and has more service time.
So, as you can see, there isn't room for Texas and Boston is now backed into a corner, as they have a brewing problem on their hand and the number of places they can send Crisp to is drying up fast.
So no, there will be no Coco for Texas.
Sorry.
Bottsy At First...Not A Good Idea
Jason Botts apparently is going to see time at first base and will make the team as the platoon partner for Frank Catalonotto and Ben Broussard in left and at first.
I'm not so sure that first base is a good idea. Botts was converted to left field after back issues forced him there. I don't have much experience as far as diamond experience (I was a catcher in high school), but as far as first base goes, it does involve a lot of bending and leaning. And if Botts' back is as balky as it sounds, this might not go well.
On the other hand, Texas has a fantastic medical team, so the Rangers might be able to keep him healthy. Who knows?
Where To Send Shelton To
With Shelton still passing through waivers, I think it's a fair possibility that he's going to get claimed. WIth that in mind, the Rangers should look into seeing what they could get for him.
Though streaky, Shelton is a decent player that can play the four corners and he's a young alternative to some of the usual suspects (Sean Casey anyone?) And, taking a look around the league, there are some places where he'd fit in nicely.
The most immediate fit is San Francisco, unless they want to use Rich Aurillia there. However, in terms of prospects, I don't see much that San Fran would have to offer, as all their best prospects were either just drafted or are named Angel Villalona. Sergio Romo, a live arm that is destined for the bullpen, would be the best fit.
Is there anything else I could do? I don't think so. I would say Florida, but Shelton might be too expensive for them (and I'm being serious. Florida and Oakland seem to be racing each other to see who can get the lower payroll.) The Yankees would be another alternative, but not only do they have too many roster spots taken up by the dead (Giambi), the rude (Duncan) and the Betemiet, but they also seem to be waiting for Mark Teixeira to inevitably hit the market so they can spend the Giambi savings on him.
So, I'd call up Brian Sabean and ask if he's willing to do a Romo for Shelton swap. Not only would it net the Rangers something, think of the newspaper headlines in Dallas when it's announced that the Rangers have just brought in their own Romo. It would be classic.
Rangers May Have Waited Too Long To Sell High On Luis Mendoza
I like Luis Mendoza more than most. However, I think the Rangers may have waited too long to sell on him, as I think his value has peaked.
There's been a lot of talk about Mendoza being a potential back of the rotation starter for the Rangers, and that he could even push one of the vets out of the rotation.
Please.
Mendoza has done nothing to really merit the love he has gotten. He's been rather inconsistent, has been released by an organization at least once (Boston) and despite a nice run here in Texas, that was only after a late surge.
Honestly, I would have let people know that Mendoza was available, and maybe have made a trade (possibly with Laird.)
The Rangers have dealt him and Danny Ray Herrera right now to the Cincinatti Reds for Josh Hamilton, who I assume will likely be the starting centerfielder and likely is going to make Nelson Cruz expendable.
I'm kinda wishy washy on the deal.
One, Volquez battled back to prove to be a viable starting pitcher. I would have loved to have seen him get the chance here. After all, what else is there left to lose? Player development? A high draft pick? And what is the point of busting a nut trying to salvage Volquez only to deal him away? I don't get it.
Two, I'm not sure on Hamilton, even though he's a physical freak of nature and could be a star. But the injury issues (thanks to drug abuse, his immune system is kinda ####ked) as well as his drug issues. If he has a mentor, likely C.J. Wilson or Michael Young, he could be kept on the straight and narrow, but it's a concern.
If Volquez does well, the Rangers will look like fools unless Hamilton really does well, which isn't outside of the realm of possibility. However, this doesn't help much for the present, with the Rangers' best starting pitching options years away and Eric Hurley not ready.
We'll see what happens. Hopefully, A.J. the Pirate is ready to step in.
On a side note, this means that out of the once vaunted DVD trio (John Danks, Edinson Volquez, Thomas Diamond) only Diamond remains in the organization, with Danks in the White Sox system and Volquez now a Red.
Incredible. Anyhow, I'll miss Volquezo and his little Geri-Curl.
I need a drink...
Eddie Guardado Nearly A Ranger
Apparently, the Rangers are close to getting Eddie Guardado to come, though whether or not it's a major league deal or a minor league deal with a spring training invite has yet to be determined.
I'm okay with it, but only if he's not a closer option. C.J. Wilson should be the closer next year, as he's more than earned the job with his performance this year. Joaquin Benoit also deserves a shot if the Rangers determine Wilson is more valuable in relief than as a closer. Guardado should merely be seen as a potential lefty middle reliever that could help bridge the gap to Wilson, not be the end of the Bridge itself.
Pouring out some scotch right now...
Someone On The 40 Is Going Bu-Bye!!!
Hamilton's recent trade doesn't solve the problem of the Rangers' 40 Man Roster, which is actually at 41, due to Kazuo Fukumori's deal not being official yet.
Which means someone is getting dropped.
I alluded earlier to Nelson Cruz likely being DFA'd to make room for Hamilton, as that's too many outfielders in the mix, and should he pass through waivers, he'll likely be offered a minor league deal with a Spring Training Invite.
But could other people be going elsewhere?
As of right now, I've identified three people that could be at risk.
Bill White (LHP) - White doesn't have great stuff and probably wouldn't be at risk at being claimed. He's not anyone I would have protected anyway. If he is claimed, the odd's on favorite would be the Astros.
Jason Botts (LF/DH) - Botts has gotten his chance to prove he can hit and hasn't really run with it. This season is really his last shot to prove that he can be a major leaguer, otherwise he's done for.
Nelson Cruz (RF) - See above.
Of the three, Cruz is likely history and White is next in line. But Botts has very little leverage left and is running out of chances. I hope he's able to succeed because this time, there is no minor league safety net to bail him out.
Rangers Top 40 will be posted next week after Christmas.
Okay, I've gotten some questions about Tex getting traded, so let's clear them up.
Yes, from what I could gather, there was talk about moving Teixiera, possibly for a starting pitcher and a pair of prospects. There was also something to the rumor of sending Tex to Detroit for Jeremy Bonderman, but there was a snag as far as sending prospects back to either team.
But, for the moment, Tex will stay in the organization, at least until next season. Here's why:
Lack Of Successor - The genius move of dealing Adrian Gonzalez instead of making him the Rangers' DH looks really stupid now, as Gonzalez was capable of playing everyday. Had Texas decided to keep him on the roster and start shopping Phil Nevin, the Rangers would have a cheap slugger at the DH that could also play the field. Instead, the Rangers are stuck without a ready replacement in the organization. The closest player they've got is Jason Botts, though his ceiling is extremely limited and he really isn't cut out to play first. After him, the only other option for Texas is to hope that prospect Nate Gold is really a late bloomer and ready to contribute to the team.
The Increasing Value Of Prospects - More and more teams are reluctant to deal prospects, especially pitching, when it comes to trading for veterens in their walk year. Where one team could make a killing off of trading a star on the verge of hitting the market to a contender (as the Yankees were able to do so many times), more and more teams are committed to keeping their prospects.
Lack Of Equal Value -- Texas would also get a hard time getting equal value for Tex. At the moment, I would price Teixiera as being worth one grade A pitching prospect, a type B pitching prospect, and a positional player, most likely a corner outfielder or infielder. Not many teams are willing to pay that, though the Tigers did overpay dearly to get Gary Sheffield away from the Yankees.
Michael Young - What would it say to Michael Young if the Rangers traded away their best offensive weapon? Remember, the Rangers want to keep Young in a Ranger uniform for life and trading away Tex would not only signal to Young that the team isn't willing to pony up the necessary cash to extend him, but that the team isn't committing to winning anytime soon.
So, that's the way things stand as far as the Rangers go. The only way I could see Tex go is if the Rangers are out of contention at mid-season of 2008, or if Gold is ready to step in.
Meyer Remains A Ranger
Infielder Drew Meyer, the Rangers' first-round pick in 2002, cleared waivers Monday and was assigned outright to Triple-A Oklahoma. Meyer, however, has been given an invite to major league spring training. Many people were surprised that Meyer was able to get outrighted, as first round picks often get some consideration whenever they’re dropped from the 40-man roster. It’s likely that no one wanted to spend a prospect to give him a shot. Meyer still profiles long term as a utility man and I still haven’t changed my opinion about him: he was a wasted pick.
Interesting Prospect Rankings
Sports Illustrated is having Bryan Smith, the co-founder of Baseball Analysts, do the top 75 prospects in the minor leagues. So far, there’s only one Ranger ranked. The following is taken directly from the website.
Hurley is the Rangers' top pitching prospect, though his 2006 went underappreciated due to his environment. Hurley spent most of the season in the hitter-friendly California League, posting a 4.11 ERA. Like Rockies farmhand Morales, Hurley struggled terribly in the California heat, allowing 24 earned runs in 22.1 innings between June 20 and his mid-July promotion to the Texas League. Also, Hurley had some bad luck; his LOB percentage was five percent below league average. Look for those two things to change substantially in 2007.
Pretty cool, huh. Oh, and just in case you all are curious and haven't gotten enough of pouring salt on the wound…
The White Sox's offseason approach of stockpiling young pitchers was admirable, and Danks was the class of their acquisitions. Chicago's long-standing pursuit of Danks is curious, as we have to wonder what lies in the Sox's scouting report that did not in the Rangers'. The team has shown a large interest in left-handed pitchers, and Danks is the best in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Danks has a clean delivery, yet pitching coach Don Cooper will spend the spring hard at work on Danks' fastball command. Danks' largest problem has been his home run ratio, so the White Sox will also have hard work to do on keeping his two-seamer, plus-curve and plus-change low in the zone.
Spring Training Storylines To Watch
Every two weeks, we’ll be presenting some storylines to watch for in Spring Training. This week, we’ll be handling the Prospects and Rookies.
Will Sammy Sosa make the team?
Sosa will be treated like any other non-roster invitee. He must earn his roster spot and hype and reputation won’t be taken into account. With that said, what are his chances of making the team?
I would say he's got an average chance to make the team, only because of the fact that the competition for the outfield/DH spot is so limited. At the moment, only Nelson Cruz is guaranteed to start (Right Field.) Frank Catallanotto will see time in left field and at the DH position, so he'll get his ABs. Kenny Lofton should start about 120 games in center.
Which leaves the Rangers with a field of Brad Wilkerson, Sosa, Victor Diaz, Marlon Byrd, Freddie Guzman, and Jason Botts for two or three roster spots.
First of all, none will play center, as it's likely that Jerry Hairston Jr will make the team and play middle infield and center. Wilkerson is also tolerable at the position, but his health concerns make it more likely that he shouldn't give it a shot.
It's likely that Guzman and Diaz will likely be headed back to Triple A, narrowing the field down. Wilkerson will almost certainly get playing time, if only to justify trading Alfonso Soriano, unless he gets traded. Which leaves two roster spots for Sosa, Byrd, and Botts.
I think Byrd will likely get released, making it a fight between Botts and Sosa. Depending on who outmashes the other, I'd say there's a 50% chance of Sosa making the team.
This isn't a decision to be taken lightly. If Sosa does make the team and is some semblance of his former self, he might bat as high as fifth, behind Tex.
What Will Happen With Akinori Otsuka?
Otsuka entered the season as the closer and was disappointed when the Rangers signed Eric Gagne and named him the closer. Otsuka hasn't taken the decision lightly and admitted in an interview that he would like to close, possibly elsewhere if he doesn't win back the job.
Otsuka is probably the most attractive closer on the market now that Mike Gonzalez is a Brave. The D-Backs and Red Sox inquired about him, but were turned off when Texas requested a starting pitching prospect in return.
I'm not opposed to dealing Aki, though I am a huge fan of his, but again, only if it brings back a starter (doesn't need to start right away) in return. I think as Spring Training and the early part of the season where's on, someone will bite, as there will likely be a closer that goes down early this year.
Who's the Fifth Starter?
The age old question, who is starting for the Texas Rangers.
Fortunately this year, it's not as dire.
With the rotation almost set, this is strictly for a fifth starter, which can be filled internally.
The Rangers have lefty John Koronka, who did a passable job last season, as the favorite for the job. But the Rangers are also going to experiment with Josh Rupe, a talented pitcher, sliding into the fifth starters role as well. But adding Rupe would make the rotation without a lefty, which isn't great considering the bats in the AL West. C.J. Wilson was talked about being converted back, but he's recently stated on his MySpace that he likes relieving and would like to be a closer in the future.
Who's the Odd Man Out in the Bullpen?
The Rangers have an abudnance of relievers at the moment. Aside from Otsuka and Gagne, the Rangers have Wes Littleton, Wilson, Rupe, Frank Francisco, Rick Bauer, Scott Feldman, John Rheinnecker, Ron Mahay, Joaquin Benoit, and possibly Edinson Volquez and Kameron Loe.
That's a grand total of 11, possibly 13 relievers competing for what looks to be a seven man pen.
It's likely that some of these guys will be spun off in trades for prospect depth, most likely starters or positional players (more on that next week), but the battle for the pen should be pretty interesting as Spring Training rolls on.
Hmmm, I think I would have found a worse deal than then 5 years, $44 million given to Juan Pierre.
Apparently, the Rangers are going to give a one year, $500,000 non-guaranteed contract to Sammy Sosa.
Sosa worked out with the Rangers on Monday, then met with Jon Daniels over dinner to discuss the possibility. Apparently, the workouts have been positive and Sosa seems willing to give up any prima donna behavior for a chance to return to the bigs. Sosa has also had an ally in hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, who managed Sosa in rookie league.
The only question really is, why the Rangers are willing to put up with the headache.
Should Sosa be signed, there will be the usual microscope of steroid use, especially if Sosa suddenly becomes some remnant of his former self. And while the Rangers have been looking for one more bat for their lineup, presumably a right-handed hitting outfielder/designated hitter, surely there are better options (Jason Botts and Victor Diaz immediately come to mind.)
Plus, how much will Sosa contribute to the team? He was bad with Baltimore, and showed signs of losing bat speed and power with the Orioles. Giving the opportunity to either Botts or Diaz would yield roughly the same results as Sosa, along with the fact that both players are entering the primes of their careers and have the potential to be better and give the Rangers a solid bat long term.
And if any of this sentiment is due to the fact that Sosa started his career with the Rangers (he was signed as a free agent in 1985 and was traded in 1989 to the White Sox), then give Rafael Palmeiro an invite instead! At the very least he was a Ranger for over ten years.
Going Over The Non-Roster Invitees
Well, Spring Training is coming soon and as usual, there is the mass amount of players that are invited to Spring Training, whether it’s to compete for a job on the 24 man roster or for a job in the farm system, where it’s hoped that they could latch on as far as a job goes.
Here’s the list so far, with my comments of what I think is going to happen next to the player name.
Pitchers
Thomas Diamond (RHP) – Most likely just a checkup by the main club. He’ll be sent back to minor league camp after Week 2.
Eric Hurley (RHP) – Also just a checkup by the big club, partially to see if he’s for real or not. Hurley will also be sent back to minor league camp after week 2.
Willie Eyre (RHP) – A Twins reject, Eyre is 28 and really didn’t impress in limited play with Minnesota. Since being drafted in 1999, Eyre has underachieved and to be frank, his tools aren’t the greatest. He’ll likely be cut sometime in camp.
Franklyn German (RHP) – A big pitcher at 6’7”, German has done well in the minors, but control seems to elude him. He’s got great tools, including a high 90’s fastball, so with some work he could become a solid middle reliever/setup man. He’s a worthwhile gamble, as the Rangers have some good success with relievers (Cordero, Wilson, Bauer, Rupe, I could go on, but don’t feel like it.)
Scott Rice (LHP) - Can't find much information on Rice. He's a big lefty, which is a plus. I'll post more on him as it comes.
Mike Wood (RHP) – Wood was originally claimed off waivers from Kansas City and was released and re-signed by the Rangers. Wood has decent tools, but he’s never been able to translate them into success. In essence, he’s a project pitcher that could benefit from a change of scenery. While I doubt that Wood will make the big club, he could get moved to Oklahoma, where he would be able to serve as a emergency starter.
Catchers
Salomon Manriquez (C) – Manriquez was a talented young catcher that has floated around in several different systems, most notably Colorado, where he was purchased from. He’ll likely be sent to minor league camp as soon as the pitchers start thinning out. As far as potential goes, Manriquez projects to be a very good backup catcher.
Kevin Richardson (C) – Richardson isn’t much of a surprise, as he’s probably the most major league ready catcher in the system. He’ll probably catch Diamond and Hurley and will be sent back along with them after the two week period I’ve mentioned.
Infielders
Nate Gold (1B/DH) – The biggest question about Gold is whether or not his sudden run producing ability is legitimate or not. Gold hit .291 with 26 doubles, 34 home runs and 103 RBIs in 119 games for Double A Frisco in 2006. Most likely this invite is being done to see how well Gold fares against more advanced pitching. Depending on his performance, Gold will likely be sent back to minor league camp, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be sent to Frisco or Oklahoma.
Ramon Vazquez (INF) – Vazquez is primarily being brought in to serve as an option for the utility role. However, Vazquez really can’t hit and hasn’t shown much prowess outside of the middle infield, so he’s likely going to get cut.
Outfielders
Jerry Hairston Jr. (Utility) – Okay, for starters, Hairston hits like #### and isn’t an everyday player. However, he does have value in the fact that he can play the outfield (all three positions), as well as the middle infield. With the departure of Mark DeRosa (who could play every position except pitcher and catcher), and the lack of any legitimate utility guy, the Rangers may have no other shot but to bring back Hairston for another go. Much to my displeasure, if I may add.
Matt Kata – A so-so player, Kata hasn’t really stuck around with several organizations, nor has he gotten much playing time. He’s likely going to get cut, as I haven’t seen much in him that screams “keeper.”
Jason Botts is one of the more curious stories of this off-season.
For those who don't know (most of you all, probably), Botts is a young slugger that has spent quite a while in the Rangers' farm system. He's got loads of power potential and is an average fielder that can play first base or the outfield.
Yet, the Rangers seem to want to place other, higher priced players at the position of DH, which makes little to no sense. Why waste money and at bats on a declining slugger (Mike Piazza, anyone), when it's possible that you can get the same thing from a cheaper, younger player who has the potential to get even better.
Many scouts, including ESPN's Keith Law, have classified Botts as a cheap date who can contribute in the majors with doubles and Home Run power, along with the ability to draw walks.
Adam at Lone Star Ball has a theory. When Carlos Pena was with the Rangers, Rudy Jaramillo, the Rangers' legendary hitting coach, strongly advised the brass to trade him, beliving that Pen'as long swing would ultimately hinder his ability to hit in the majors. If that's true, then the Rangers came out ahead, as Pena was a bust.
Pena is similar to Botts, who also has a long swing, and has the same type of power, walk ability, and strikeouts that Pena had.
Still, there are plenty of free swingers in the bigs, many of which are also profiled like Botts and are also rather mediocre. And as a player with the coveted 1-3 service time label, what's the risk of at least giving the kid a shot.
Thoughts About Mark Mulder
The Rangers were informed that Mark Mulder would be rejoining his mates in St. Louis, signing a contract whose potential value woud escalate to 3 years, $45 Million.
Eh, go figure. I kind of got the impression, as the bidding went along, that the Rangers would be left out in the cold for Mulder. In the end, it benefits both teams.
St. Louis regains a quality pitcher that should regain some of his form next season, depending on how quickly the shoulder bounces back from rotator cuff surgery.
The Rangers go into Spring Training with only the fifth spot of the rotation in flux, with Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, and Tejeda already penciled in as one through four. This allows them to mix and match with a number of in house options to work with.
And in the end, Mulder wouldn't have done well. He's not as dominant as he once was and despite being left handed, his flyball nature would have gotten him killed at Ameriquest.
I'm Kind Of Hoping This Deal Goes Down
Not a Rangers note, but it's certainly one that affects them.
The New York Mets are negotiating with the Oakland A's for a starter to help bolster their rotation.
New York is supposedly offering former franchise savior/current trade bait Lasting Milledge and setup man Aaron Heilman. Oakland wants a minor league pitcher in return (they want, but won't get Mike Pelrey. They'll probably get Philip Humber) and is offering starter Joe Blanton in return.
New York is saying nuts to that. They want Danny Haren.
If that deal were to go through, I'd be torn between being eccstatic and fearful.
One, I would be glad because Haren is Oakland's most dangerous pitcher. He's a solid ace and will be a Cy Young contender in the future, I assure you.
But I'm wary of the potential that Milledge poses. Milledge is a solid five tool player in his own right and he could become a dangerous player to Rangers pitchers down the line.
But overall, I'm pulling for the Mets for this deal to happen. A hitter can always be walked. Great pitchers usually destroy you most of the time.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.
