I had posted this earlier, but for some reason it didn't take, so here it is again.

On The Block – Jason Bay

Recent talk out of Pittsburgh has the Pirates potentially trading the face of their franchise, Jason Bay, in order to help replensish a impoverished farm system.  Bay is regarded to be the best moveable part not starting in the rotaiton right now, as he's due $13.25 million the next two seasons. 

Bay for the most part has accepted the fact, though he'd like to stay with the Pirates and help turn things around. 

The Why:  I've just said the why just now, but pretty much because the Pirates feel they have options, he's cheap and it wouldn't hurt to see what potential package you could get in return.

The Rumored Asking Price:  The papers have people predicting a Bartolo Colon/Mark Teixeira deal.  That won’t happen.  More likely, an average pitching prospect and a positional player prospect will get it done, though a third guy could be included.  Who knows?

Can A Trade Be Done:  Yes.  Bay doesn’t have a no-trade clause and with the market for outfield corners looking rather shallow at the moment, Bay would fetch a couple of decent prospects, should a GM have expendable prospects he’d be willing to deal. 

The Good:  Bay is coming off of an off year, but he'#### for power and has good speed on the basepaths.  His plate discipline is reasonably good and he's regarded to be a solid defender in left field.  He's also regarded to be a good clubhouse guy and would be a solid complimentry piece (not a star) to add to your lineup.

Potential Hang-ups:

• Performance In 2007:  Are you buying on the pre-2007 Bay or the 2007 version of Bay?  He's a gamble, but it's got to be asked what you're getting here.
• Health - Bay has also undergone some health issues this past year and you have to wonder if they'll creep back up again.
• Stupid Asking Prices - The Pirates have asked for absolutely stupid packages in the past for their players and have either been burned or shot down completely, the most recent of which was their offer for Jack Wilson (3B Troy Glaus) from the Jays, although, looking back, maybe the Jays should have taken it.

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• San Francisco Giants – San Fran is going to need an outfielder and Bay could fit the bill.  The Giants could concievably decide to package Noah Lowry along with someone else, perhaps Nate Scherholtz, in order to get a deal done.
• Philadelphia Phillies – This could be done if the Phillies feel that they could have a deal for Pat Burrell, which could be done if they were to involve the next team bellow.  They could flip Burrell to the White Sox, provided he waives his no trade, and gain Bay, who is cheaper, and potentially Joe Crede, who would be a solid fit at third base, strengthening the lineup and making it a bit more fiscally flexible if they want to add anything else during the off-season.
• Chicago White Sox – Or, the White Sox could flip Bay for Crede and change and bypass the Phillies altogether, though the Pirates and White Sox would need to come up with a fit.  Perhaps Bay and Zach Duke for Crede and Lance Broadway?
• Texas Rangers – This is an interesting fit, from a non-homer perspective.  .Texas needs a left fielder and could use someone young to build around like Bay.  It would allow the Rangers to use Frank Cattalonotto at first base, limiting his defensive limitations and allow Texas to field a potential outfield of Bay, Centerfielder to Be Named Later, and David Murphy with Marlon Byrd as the utility outfielder.  The Rangers could trade for Bay, including Joaquin Arias, who could still be useful to the Pirates in the future, along with a couple of interesting arms in Robinson Tejeda, who could still be an effective starter and would be able to work in the pen for a bit to get his confidence up, and Gerald Laird, who needs to get the hell out of Texas and has experience to handle a staff.  If the Pirates want to sub, I'd give them the option of adding Luis Mendoza, who has become an effective groundball pitcher with some promise.  This could be overpaying a bit, but I'd be willing to give it a shot.
• New York Mets – The Mets are another organization that could potentially go after Bay, as they are in need of a left fielder.  However, it would almost certainly involve one of their talented young outfielders, likely Carlos Gomez, who needs another year, and a pitching prospect, likely Mike Pelfrey, who the Mets are quickly souring on.
• Minnesota Twins – Bucco Blog reported that the Twins may have some interest, with Matt Garza being mentioned in return.  I don't think it would be Garza, but another prospect, Kevin Slowley perhps, would be close enough to a deal.  The Twins in the past haven't been willing to make a trade, especially when it comes to their small horde of pitching prospects, but I would pull the trigger here, especially since the Twins need a big bat and much of their lineup is filled with defensive replacements.  I think it would benefit both sides. 

If I Had To Make A Trade Now:   It would look like this...

The Texas Rangers trade RHP Robinson Tejeda, RHP Luis Mendoza, SS Joaquin Arias to the Pittsburgh Pirates for LF Jason Bay

That's really the only deal that I can think of right now on short notice that would go through.  Thoughts?

Let's see who the Hat decides to favor today....

Ooooh, Shooter's Team!!!

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates look like they finally said enough was enough and finally let the kids play, in which there was some improvement in the team.  However, the Pirates are still very much a raw team, and despite some promising acquisitions, there remains a lot of work to be done.

Starting Rotation

1. Zach Duke (LHP) – Duke will likely head the staff, due to him being the most experienced member of the staff.  However, Duke has at lot more of growing up to do, as he was hammered last season, winning only 10 of 25 decisions and compiling 4.47 ERA.  Even more troubling is that opponents hit .302 off of him, though he did prove to be remarkable durable.  Much of this can be blamed on inexperience, which can be testified in the fact that he went 5-7 with a 3.65 ERA in after the All-Star break.  Duke should continue to improve, as he’s got quality stuff and should have a future in the league. 
2. Ian Snell (RHP) – Snell moved into the rotation for good this year and is the only Pirate pitcher to have a winning record, going 14-11 with a 4.74 ERA and led the team in strikeouts.  He should also continue to improve as he logs in innings.  The only question is his durability, as he’s small for a starting pitcher at 5’11. 
3. Paul Maholm (LHP) – Maholm is also a solid lefty, but like Duke he struggled early on in the season as he continued to adapt to pitching in the majors.  Of the young Pirates, Maholm has the deepest arsenal of the bunch, but his fastball is the weakest of the four, making him a liability for the long ball.  He could become a solid lefty workhorse, similar to Kenny Rogers, provided that the rotator cuff problems he suffered at end of the season don’t become a long-term problem.
4. Tom Gorzelanny (LHP) – Gorzelanny was one of the top pitchers in Triple-A before being promoted to the majors on July 6th.  He’s likely not going back after he went 2-5 with a 3.79 ERA over 14 games and 12 starts.  Scouts feel that Gorzelanny might be the most talented of the young Bucs due to his good velocity and his excellent changeup.  If he and the others develop as planned, the Pirates could have the potential to have THREE solid lefties in the rotation, something that no other team has. 
5. Tony Armas Jr. (RHP) – Still young, but Armas isn’t what he used to be.  He was rocked pitching at RFK, a pitcher’s park, as his command and control are both really off.  Still, Armas has the potential to be able to come back from the derailment his career has gone through, though Pittsburgh’s reputation as the place where pitchers come to die isn’t promising.  He’s still a much better option than a former Yankees starter in the pen…

Bullpen

• Salomon Torres (Closer) – Torres was effective in limited action last season when filling in for Mike Gonzalez.  With Gonzalez now in Atlanta, Torres will get the opportunity to be the closer.  His numbers weren’t quite as dominating as Gonzalez’s were, but overall he should be solid.
• Dan Kolb (Setup Man) – Kolb will likely be the setup man, a duty that he functions well on.  Kolb doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his effectiveness is due to the fact that he induces so many ground balls.  With a improved defense, the Bucs should be able to give Kolb the defense he needs to be successful.
• Damaso Marte (LHP) – Marte is a lefty that the Pirates have obtained from the White Sox last year that will also help out Kolb as far as setup duties go.  Marte has been one of the more consistent bullpen performers in baseball for the last five years.
• John Gabrow (LHP) – Another talented lefty, Gabrow was having a solid season until a dreadful September blew up his ERA. 
• Shawn Chacon (RHP) - Chacon has fallen far after he went 7-3, 2.85 with the Yankees in 2005.  Thankfully, he’s not in the rotation and will be a swingman, unless he’s able to re-establish himself as a legitimate starter.  Doesn’t seem likely at this point, though God knows that the Pirates could use some luck like that happening.
• Matt Capps (RHP) – The fact that Capps is near the top of the roster in terms of wins should be troubling.  But Capps is a good young reliever that’s coming to his own and could make for a dynamite setup corps if Kolb and Torres work out as planned.
• John Sharpless (RHP) – Another solid option that got his crack into the pen last season, if Sharpless continues to be dominant, he would be a final piece of what could be a dynamite bullpen for the Pirates.

Starting Lineup

1. Freddy Sanchez (3B) – Sanchez finally took that leap that the Red Sox hoped he would take, becoming a capable everyday starter.  He’s a solid contract hitter and though he doesn’t have much home run power, he gets on base and has enough doubles power to give himself some breathing room.  He’s a capable defender and with a solid work ethic that could slide over to second in time. 
2. Jose Castillo (2B) – One of the better second basemen of the season's first half, batting .279 with 11 homers, Castillo is still young enough to be able to grow some more into a solid number two hitter, as Sanchez has leadoff potential.  Most scouts feel he’s got 20 home run potential, which was evident last season before his slump in the second half.  He’s due for a breakthrough, and he’ll most likely get it this year.
3. Jason Bay (LF) – The face of the franchise, Bay didn’t have as good of a year as his 2005, but that’s just nitpicking.  He was still very productive as a run producer and the power is excellent.  Bay has stated that he didn’t feel comfortable in the cleanup role, but this year should be better as he’s got legitimate protection behind him in the lineup. 
4. Adam LaRoche (1B) – LaRoche finally had that breakout season last year that so many people had been waiting for.  He showed strong power numbers and is just entering his prime as a hitter.  He’s also a slick fielder at first base and improves the infield defense by a whole lot.  With Bay moving down to the number three spot, LaRoche will hit cleanup and will provide protection for Bay.  He’ll get his RBI chances and PNC Park is a lot kinder to left handed hitters than Turner Field.  Look for him to continue to put up those numbers from last year.
5. Xavier Nady (RF) – Nady finally proved that he could be a solid regular in the majors after the Mets acquired him in a trade for Mike Cameron last November.  The fact that it took this long for Nady to finally blossom makes me wonder about the Padres ability to develop prospects.  Nady's calling card is that he has great power, but his long swing often leads to loads of strikeouts and a mediocre batting average.  With the arrival of LaRoche, Nady will hit fifth for a surprisingly potent Pirates lineup.
6. Ronny Paulino (C) – A pretty nifty catcher, Paulino put up a good average and had some reasonable doubles power, but he’s still growing as a hitter and could develop some more power down the line.  He needs to improve his defense, though it’s his offense that will win him the starting job.
7. Chris Duffy (CF) – Duffy is the likely favorite for the centerfield job in PNC.  He hit okay for the amount of games he played, far below what is expected from a centerfielder, and is a stolen base threat.  He’s a solid defender, but he just needs to get his bat in order for him to stay as a regular.  It doesn’t help that Andrew McCutchen is rising quickly in the minors and could cost him his job if he has a strong Spring Training. 
8. Jack Wilson (SS) – One of the worst shortstops in the majors, Wilson is a black hole in the lineup.  Putting him at the end helps minimize his impact.  Defensively, he needs to minimize his errors, as he had a career high in errors last season with 18.

Bench

• Ryan Doumit (C) – Doumit had a horrible year offensively, which further solidified Paulino as the starter.  A productive winter league campaign could lead him to challenge for the starting job if Paulino starts off slowly.
• Nate McLouth (OF) – Though McLouth did nothing to help establish himself as a regular, it’s still possible that McLouth could become a average regular.  However, with prized prospect Andrew McCutchen on the way and Chris Duffy likely to be a utility outfielder, any chance of that happening would be with another team. 
• Brad Eldred (1B) – Eldred was considered a challenger for the first base job during Spring Training, but injury cost him the entire 2006 season.  With LaRoche now in Pittsburgh, Eldred is left riding the pine.
• Jose Bautista (IF/OF) – Primary use is as a lefty killer off the bench.
• Rajai Davis (CF) – He’s fast.  And umm, that’s it.

Down On The Farm…

The Pirates lost a lot of farm system depth after the massive amount of promotions last season and it doesn’t look like there will be any major graduations other than who is listed below.  So, the Pirates have to work with who they have now, because there won’t be any help coming from the farm anytime soon.

• Andrew McCutchen (CF) – McCutchen is the Pirates’ best prospect now that the pitchers have graduated.  McCutcheon has got great speed and has can hit for power.  His bat speed is excellent and his plate discipline is fantastic.  McCutcheon doesn’t have a strong arm, but that’s just nitpicking at this point.  At the moment, McCutcheon will likely be headed to Triple A, but there isn’t much  stopping him from breaking into the majors now and taking the starting centerfield job at some point this season.
• Jesse Chavez (RHP) – Obtained from Texas in exchange for the Kip Wells experience (which lasted two stops), Chavez was one of the better reliever prospects in the Rangers' farm system.  He's not a big guy, but his arm is good, causing scouts to compare him to Julian Tavarez.  Chavez's best pitch is a low to mid 90's mph fastball that touches 96 at times, but he lacks a breaking pitch and there are some durability concerns because of his size.  Still, he's got enough in him to maybe be a quality setup man, which seems to be the only thing to come out of Pittsburgh's farm system these days.
• Brad Lincoln (RHP) – Lincoln was a star pitcher and hitter at the University of Houston, but despite his potential with the offense, his long-term future is at pitcher.  Lincoln pounds the strike zone with a mid 90’s fastball and follows it up with a good curveball and a promising changeup.  He’s also capable of lasting deep into games, always a plus.  The problem is that at 5’11, he’s short for a pitcher and durability will be in question.  But the Pirates are high on him and they will begin testing Lincoln this season to see how far he can advance into the system. 

In Conclusion

If the Pirates' mix of young talent gels this season, this team could contend in the NL Central.  But unfortunately, that doesn't look to be the case.

Final Standing:  Fifth In the National League Central