Getting near the end here.   THe last of the previews will be done next week.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins were one of the big stories last year, as I don’t think there has every been a team that underwent such a huge makeover and was still able to contend for much of the season.

That aint’ happening this year.

Here’s why.

Starting Rotation

1. Dontrelle Willis (LHP) – The lone remainder of the 2005 rotation, Willis lead the staff last season and posted a solid 3.87 ERA with 160 strikeouts.  However, his 12-12 record is largely due to the Marlins' struggles early on in the season, as well as a bit of a hang over from the World Baseball Classic.  With free agency approaching next year, Willis will be a hot commodity, though some teams will be wary about all the innings he's logged in since he broke into the league.  On a side note, Willis also is a excellent hitter and has hit as low as 8th in the order.
2. Scott Olsen (LHP) – Olsen gets very good velocity for a lefty, as he’s able to #### it up to the mid 90s.  He compliments that with a great slider and he’s got a good changeup that he should mix in more often.  The problem with Olsen is that he works high in the zone, and gets pounded from time to time as a result.  He also needs to improve his stamina, as he should start to pass the 200 innings mark sometime soon.
3. Anibal Sanchez (RHP) – Sanchez has all the stuff to become an ace, and he blossomed last year when called up by Florida.  Sanchez went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 17 starts, plus threw a no hitter, paving the way for a Rookie Of The Year quality season.  Sanchez's only knock is his size and his history of arm troubles, which have recently reared their ugly head again when Sanchez reported soreness in his shoulder.  Thus, this situation bears watching, as yet another talented arm for the Marlins takes a possible hit.
4. Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Nolasco has average stuff that projects him to be a fourth or fifth starter or a long reliever, depending on what the Marlins decide to do with him long tern.  They’ll be depending on him to pitch as the fourth starter, especially with Johnson out for two months.
5. Yusmeiro Petit (RHP) – Petit lacks any plus pitches, but he’s got a very deceptive deliver that hides the ball well and results in a high number of strikeouts.  However, he wasn’t able to translate that success into wins at the majors, resulting in a demotion to the bullpen.  Petit will likely begin the season with the Marlins, but he’ll be sent back to Albuquerque as soon as Johnson is ready to come back.

Bullpen

• Taylor Tankersley (Closer) – After being switched to the bullpen, Tankersley really took off, finishing the season in the majors and functioning as a setup man.  Tankersley has good enough stuff to close, but the concern is that he may not be healthy enough to remain in the role.  It should be interesting to see what happens.
• Logan Kensing (Setup Man) – Kensing was okay as a part time setup man.  He’ll man the full time duties this Spring.
• Henry Owens (RHP) – Obtained from the Mets, Owens looks to be a finished product and should be a more than capable swingman for the Fish.  Owens has got a great fastball, but the lack of a breaking pitch is rather troublesome, as his slider really doesn’t exist.  He’ll likely team up with Kensing for setup duties.
• Carlos Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was tremendous coming out of the pen last year and seems to be a lock to make the pen this Spring.
• Randy Messenger (RHP) – Messenger had a roller coaster year last year, as he was either effective or awful, depending on the month.  A excellent September gives the Marlins some hope that he can be good.
• Reynal Pinto (LHP) – Pinto looks to have the makings of a shutdown lefty reliever, but he was an excellent minor league starter.  Hence, there will be some teams asking abou him as part of a trade, in hopes of using him in that capacity. 
• Sergio Mitre (RHP) – Not sure what to make of Mitre. He’s likely going to be the swingman, though I wonder if there are better options available in the farm system that could help right now.

Starting Lineup

1. Hanley Ramirez (SS) – Ramirez, part of the Josh Beckett deal, proved to be a capable replacement for Alex Gonzalez.  He thrived as a leadoff man and is proving that he’s an excellent fielder as well.  Though Ramirez will eventually be moved down in the lineup, as he seems to be a better fit as a number two man, he should be able to duke it out with Jose Reyes for the title of best leadoff man in the National League.
2. Dan Uggla (2B) – A Rule 5 pick from the Diamondbacks, Uggla slugged his way into keeping the starting job while entering the record books as the new record holder for for homers by a rookie second baseman.  Uggla has evolved into a pretty good defender and should hit for some nice power in the two spot.  I don’t think that Uggla will have the same success that he did last year, as he is likely still adjusting to the majors, and pitchers figured him out a little, but if he can hit around .280 to .290 with 15 to 20 bombs, the Marlins will be more than happy.
3. Miguel Cabrera (3B) – Cabrera is one of those players that you know is destined for Cooperstown the first time you see him play.  Cabrera was a beast for the Marlins, hitting .339 with 26 homers and 114 RBI’s, all the while showing that he can be a more than capable defender at third.  The real question about Cabrera is whether or not he’s willing to be a leader, as he had his lapses much of last season and management seems determined to set the grounds for an eventual trade, as they’ve been feuding with him for much of the off-season.
4. Josh Willingham (LF) – Willingham isn’t the greatest left fielder, as he lacks range and his decision making in the field is questionable at times.  However, his bat is excellent, as seen from his .277/26/74 batting line. Willingham should improve with experience, and hopefully as the Guppies enter their second season together, Willingham can further improve on his hitting an be a monster of a cleanup man.
5. Mike Jacobs (1B) – Jacobs doesn’t have the amount of power that his predecessor, Carlos Delgado, had, but he hit very well and is one of the only lefty batters that offers any sort of power.  The bigger question is whether or not Jacobs can defend, as he was often times awful playing first. 
6. Jeremy Hermida (RF) –Hermida's rookie season was ruined by hip and ankle injuries, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a stud.  He still has excellent plate discipline and doubles power, though his strikeout rate may keep his batting average down.  He should have a very good career and he projects similar to Brian Giles, a very good outfielder with some pop.  I still wish Texas had drafted him instead of Drew Meyer.
7. Miguel Olivo (C) – Olivo had a very nice season as a full time starter and he put up career best numbers in all three triple crown categories, plus was capable of providing guidance to a rookie staff.  He also threw out 34 percent of attempted base stealers. The only problem is the strikeouts and his lack of plate discipline.  He had nine walks, the fewest ever for a player with at least 100 strikeouts.
8. Alfredo Amezaga (CF) – This utilityman is hoped to be able to provide at least some sort of offense from center, all the while being able to capably man the postion.  He’s likely a placeholder for someone else, should the Marlins choose to make a move.  Word has it that they’re interesting in making a deal for Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes to man center, though the Rays are asking for too much and the Marlins are unwilling to offer any young pitching.  Oh, and to a certain baseball writer who said that the Marlins shouldn’t trade any of their young pitching because they’d be better off long term, all I have to say is #### you.  The Marlins need a centerfielder and frankly, none of these guys that they have in camp will cut it.  Sometimes you gotta trade pitching to help the team now, especially when FOUR of your starters won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.

Bench

• Matt Treanor (C) – One of the best backup catchers in the league, Treanor should provide some leadership on the young Marlins.  That and bring his smoking hot wife to games.
• Aaron Boone (1B/3B) – Boone is done as a regular, but it’s possible that he may have something left to offer as far as a reserve.  Boone is most remembered for his home run against the Red Sox in the ALCS, plus inadvertently causing Drew Henson to head back to football.
• Robert Andino (INF) – Andino has a great glove and will likely sub for Ramirez or Uggla in case of injury.
• Cody Ross (OF) – Ross may be a option for center, but he needs to improve his plate discipline if he hopes to wrestle the job away from Amezaga.  He does have some power, which gives him a slight edge over Amezaga, though.
• Joe Borchard (OF) – Borchard is better off playing the outfield corners as a backup, but he’s also a bit of a disappointment as far as a centerfield option.

Disabled List

• John Johnson (RHP) – Johnson is a solid right-handed pitcher that was dominating for much of last year.  However, he’ll be out for two months thanks to an irritated ulnar nerve.  Secretly, the  that will likely force him to miss at least the first two months of the season.

Down On The Farm…

The Marlins still have some great pitching talent in the lower minors, but the biggest weakness in this system is that they lack any bats that are capable of making an impact.  Their lack of position prospects has become noticeable, which was evident in the fact that their six minor league affiliates had a combined.467 winning percentage.  There’s not an awful lot to call up at this moment, as the staff appears to be set, but there are some players that could make a contribution at some point.

• Reggie Abercrombie (CF) – The Marlins had high hopes for Abercrombie, but I think that he was rushed to the majors too soon and that may have hurt his development.  With some more time in the minors, along with instruction, Abercrombie could be at the very least a league average centerfielder in a year.
• Brett Sinkbeil (RHP) – The sky’s the limit for Sinkbeil and there’s talk that he could move through the system quickly.  Sinkbiel  is an extremely polished pitcher with a low 90’s sinking fastball that touches 95 that he uses with a above average slider.  His changeup is still a work in progress, but the potential is that if he gets that last pitch together, he could reach Florida by the end of 2006. 
• Jose Garcia (RHP) – Garcia is a short pitcher, but he’s got great stuff, as his arsenal includes a low 90s fastball, a decent slider, and changeup that is already a plus pitcher.  The problem is that his size allows for little movement and he’s got very little projection left on him.  Garcia rose quikyl through the system, beginning in Class High A and hitting the Majors, but he’s likely going to be in Triple A, where he’ll await a call up. 

In Conclusion

Last year’s 78 win team surprised many, and showed that you could win with a payroll less than Derek Jeter’s yearly salary.  That won’t happen this year, as the Marlins will likely suffer some attrition due to injuries, the league catching up to some of the starters, and the improvement of the National League as a whole.  They may finish at .500, but I don’t see them making the playoffs.  They will, however, be a threat to the Phillies, Braves and Mets next year and will be dangerous thanks to that staff.  But until then…

Final Standing:  Fourth Place In The National League East.

P.S. – Yes, I was in a bad mood when I wrote this.

Friday Morning Closer

Here’s my five-pitch outing for the day.

Beckett’s Proving To Be Less Than What The Red Sox Thought

Judging from the Emails from the Red Sox Nation, I’m guessing that Beckett isn’t at all popular.  In fact, many regard Beckett as a disaster that cost the Red Sox too much in terms of prospects.

When the Red Sox jumped in between the negotiations between the Texas Rangers and the Florida Marlins on a trade that would have sent the fireballer to Arlington, the Red Sox blew away the Rangers’ offer of 3B Hank Blalock, SS Joaquin Arias and LHP John Danks in return for Beckett and Mike Lowell with a impressive package of SS Hanley Ramirez, RHP Anibal Sanchez.  The Red Sox cackled gleefully as they won the bidding and thought that they had their ace of the future in Beckett.

However, this probably should have been forseen by Boston when they dealt for the talented Texas.  Beckett had long benefited from pitching at home in the cavernous Dolphin Stadium, but was only average outside of Miami.  Other factors to take into account, as usual, was the addition of the DH, which usually inflates ERA’s from the National League to the American League by one run.

Plus, watching Beckett and his delivery, there was also the manner in how he competes.  Beckett got by often in the National League by overpowering hitters, usually the bottom 3 hitters, with fastballs.  In the deeper lineups of the American League however, the hitters have exploited this weakness.  And as you know, hitting a fastball hard results in a lot more of the long ball, a category that Beckett leads.  A good way to prove this is with a stat line Ken Rosenthal posted earlier.  Beckett is 4-5 with a 7.60 ERA this season against the White Sox, Indians, Yankees, Rangers, Blue Jays and Tigers, six of the Top Seven Hitting Teams in Baseball (Boston is the other member of the Top 7).  Against the weaker teams, such as Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and other such teams?  He's 9-1 with a 3.03 ERA.

It’s already late in the season for Boston to work with Beckett on improving much.  Seven weeks in the middle of a pennant race isn’t the best circumstances on helping a guy develop.  In the off-season, the Red Sox need to work with Beckett to work on his breaking stuff and not over rely on the heater.  He has a solid sinker and a good curveball that he should mix in with his fastball as well.  His sinker is good enough to be used as an out pitch.  Another thing that Boston needs to address is Jason Varitek.  I know I’m going to get blasted for this one…

Varitek has over-relied on certain pitchers’ pitches (say that three times fast.)  In the case of Matt Clement, Varitek called Clement’s slider too often, causing him to be way to predictable, which is a shame because Clement had other decent pitches at his disposal.  He may be doing the same with Beckett and calling the fastball too much, and in the process, creating irreparable harm.

Needless to say, the Red Sox need to address Beckett’s situation as quickly as possible.  From what we’ve seen, John Lester is going to be a quality middle of the rotation starter and Papelbon, who has ace quality stuff, won’t be in the rotation for another year and would still need yet another year to make the transition from reliever to starter.  Hence, Boston’s future rotation depends heavily on Beckett becoming as effective as the man he’s supposed to emulate, Curt Schilling, in a short period of time.

Buying Barry – Part One

The most attractive name on the 2006 Free Agent List will in no doubt be Barry Zito. 

And the bidding is going to be ugly as hell.

With Scott Boras taking center stage on the bidding, Boras is going to make out like a bandit on his client, netting him a lucrative contract that will make Zito a rich man for years to come.  The contract he’s going to use as a base model is going to be Kevin Millwood’s deal with Texas, 5 years, $60 million.   That will automatically eliminate the following teams from the bidding:

Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Atlanta, Florida, Washington, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh.

Next, we eliminate the teams that have a good stable of young pitching available:

Los Angeles (AL), Detroit, Chicago (AL), Houston

That leaves us with 14 teams.  Or the Entire American League, however you look at it.

Here’s who will not go after Zito, even though they’ll have the cash to do so.

Arizona – Is developing their own pitching prospects, so they should be good to go.

Colorado – Already has a staff that they can build their future around, plus some talent in the minors that can contribute.

San Diego – One of the cheapest teams in the leagues, San Diego is known for letting players go in free agency.  It’s highly likely that they’ll promote from within or sign cheaper alternatives (Hello Kerry Wood!)

San Francisco – Could use Zito, especially since it’s likely that Schmidt and Bonds are leaving, but they have so many concerns already that their money could be used elsewhere.  They’ll more likely pursue Alfonso Soriano. 

Which leaves 10 teams remaining for Zito’s services, all of whom will be bidding against each other for the southpaw’s services.  Here are teams likely to go into different directions:

Toronto – Has committed too much money in terms of players, though this could change if they successfully trade Vernon Wells.

Cincinnati – Too much money is tied up in the Natti.  Plus, with their

St. Louis – The Cards have a lot of free agency issues already in terms of pitching.  Aside from Carpenter, who will want a contract extension, the Cardinals also have Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Weaver, along with Jim Edmonds.  The Cardinals will have too much to handle just trying to sort out of their free agent.

Seattle – Will probably go after Jason Schmidt.  Schmidt would do well in Safeco’s spacious outfield and plus, the Mariners need another workhorse pitcher to go along with Jarrod Washburn, as they have their potential ace of the future in Felix Hernandez.

Philadelphia – I don’t remember Pat Gillick ever going after big name free agents, though he did trade for David Cone.  Still, it’s likely that Gillick will sign some under the radar players that will wind up contributing big to the Phillies.

Which whittles the list down to five:

Los Angeles (NL)

Chicago (NL)

Texas

New York (AL)

Boston

Looking For More Details…Next Week

Stay Away From Kevin Brown’s House

Stay away from Kevin Brown’s, especially if you own a lawnmower.

Bibb County sheriff's deputies were called to settle a turf war between Brown and his neighbor.   The neighbor called the sheriff's office after a loud argument that began when he found Brown throwing grass clippings over the fence into the neighbor’s yard.  When confronted, Brown argued with his neighbor and pulled out a gun.  The neighbor was then told not to come onto his property.  Brown told deputies that he carries a gun while strolling through the woods because he often sees snakes.

To his credit, Brown didn’t point the gun at his neighbor.

Reportedly, Brown discovered yard debris on his side of the fence from his neighbor as he walked his property line. He grabbed a couple of fistfuls of clippings and threw them back.  The neighbor admitted to throwing the grass clippings over the vine-covered wire fence that stands 3 to 4 feet tall.  Brown also told deputies that his neighbor became very angry during the shouting match and said, "I should take you out right now."  The neighbor confirmed the remark.  Charges won’t be pressed and Brown is going to put up a taller fence.  The neighbor is going to buy a mulching mower.

Madness.  But often, that’s what you get from Kevin Brown, who has a history of being a nutcase.  He had the distinction of being the only successful Texas Rangers pitcher not invited back.  Kenny Rogers now shares the honor with him.

The New Yankee Stadium

The Yankees broke ground Wednesday on a billion-dollar stadium.  George Steinbrenner, Gov. George Pataki, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and others dug with silver shovels with baseball-bat-shaped handles into some dirt across the street from historic Yankee Stadium to signify the groundbreaking.  Coincidentally, Wednesday was the same date Babe Ruth died 58 years ago.

"It's a pleasure to give this to you people," said Steinbrenner. "This is for you people and we think very highly of all of you and I just want you to know it."  Hopefully, they forgot Steinbrenner’s earlier history of threatening to move the Yankees to New Jersey.
One block away, police blocked dozens of demonstrators opposed to plans to eliminate chunks of the popular Macombs Dam and Mullaly Parks to build the stadium.  Save Our Parks, a community group, unsuccessfully sought a court injunction barring construction.

The Yankees will pay the $800-million cost to build the stadium, which will feature touches of the copper frieze and limestone walls of the original park.  The famed façade, which now adorns the top of the park, will also be moved to the new park and placed back in it’s original position, hanging down from the roof of the stadium.  Monument Park will be off the field of play and in a separate area of the facility. 

The city and state have agreed to invest nearly $400 million in garages, parks, a new Metro North station and tax breaks.  The original stadium, built in 1923, will be bulldozed to make way for baseball fields.  This I don’t agree with.  The Yankees should have tried to convert the original stadium into a little league park of a minor league park.  Yankee Stadium is one of our nation’s treasures and should be preserved for future generations to share.

The team will not pay rent on publicly owned land and if there are cost overruns, the Yankees have agreed to assume the burden.  The Yankees also agreed to contribute $50 million over 40 years for community programs in the Bronx, including $800,000 a year to a trust fund, $100,000 in sports equipment and uniforms, and 15,000 tickets a year to home games.  A quarter of the project's construction and stadium jobs will be reserved for Bronx residents and businesses.

The Return Of Canseco Watch!!!!

Just when you thought you escaped it, Jose Canseco has returned to the news.

Jose Canseco started for the Long Beach Armada of the Golden Baseball League, his first time pitching since he gave up the Game for the Northern Team in the GBL’s All-Star Game.  Apparently, Canseco has been working on his mechanics and arm strength with pitching coach Jon Warden, who won the World Series with the Detroit Tigers in 1968.  Canseco used a fastball and knuckleball as his primary pitches.  His start was against the Reno Silver Sox, who lead the GBL in most hitting categories, including batting average and home runs.

So, it’s really not much of a surprise that things got ugly early.

Canseco hit four batters and walked five others in 4 1/3 innings for the Long Beach Armada on Wednesday night.  He also gave up a home run on a "flat knuckleball" and recorded his first career strikeout during the 8-2 loss.  Still, Canseco felt pretty good about his performance, though he did say he had to walk fewer guys (ya think!)

Armada manager Darrell Evans said he saw Canseco's performance in that game and was impressed that Canseco was throwing strikes.  Canseco's second start is scheduled against the Yuma Scorpions on Sunday and his third and final start is set for Aug. 26 at home against the San Diego Surf Dawgs, the team he requested a trade from earlier in the season.