Sorry about the missed previews yesterday. To make up for it, I'll post the team that was drawn yesterday, plus todays.
First team is...
Interesting.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds surprised last year, leading the division for much of the season and in contention for the Wild Card until September 30th and finishing with the franchise’s best record since 2000 at 80-82. But it’s possible that the Reds could have made the post-season had they not blown up the team in a terrible trade to Washington, which cut out the heart of the Reds’ offense. There has been little to resupply that talent in the main club, plus the pitching staff remains questionable.
Starting Rotation
Aaron Harang (RHP) – Harang emerged as an ace last season, finally fulfilling the potential that people had long thought capable of him. The Reds rewarded him with a four year contract, locking him up past his first two years of free agency and giving them an important piece of the puzzle that they have long since tried and failed to solve. Harang was ranked among the top in wins, strikeouts and innings and as long as he stays healthy and consistent, he’s going to be the man in Cincinnati.
Bronson Arroyo (RHP) – Arroyo had a fine season last year, going 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA. Arroyo was never a dominant pitcher, as his best pitch is a curveball that is hampered by his tendency to change arm angles. Still, he’s durable and his delivery is easy, not raising any red flags (no pun intended) in the future. He’s a solid number three that will have to be a two for the Reds. He also was given a contract extention. Hey, Cincy’s stepping up on keeping their talent.
Kyle Lohse (RHP) – Lohse was a garbage bin pickup for Cincinnati after Lohse got shelled out of Minnesota and was sent down. Lohse was able to salvage something in his partial season with the Reds, going 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA. Not great numbers, but with two bad contracts on the books, Cincinnati will take what they can get. Lohse has the tendancy to lose command of his pitches, which is how he got shelled so often last year. We’ll see if the switch to the NL continues to work.
Kirk Saarloos (RHP) – Anyone remember when Saarloos was a top prospect for the Astros? Anyhow, the Reds didn’t make any major moves during the winter for a starter, so instead they made a very under the radar acquisition with Saarloos, trading a young reliever prospect in exchange. At 27, Saarloos has proven to be a competent swingman, but his stuff isn’t overpowering, making him a good guy to move to the NL. He can eat up innings, which is always a plus and, if he keeps the ball down, should be tolerable at the fourth spot.
Eric Milton (LHP) – Milton was slightly better this season, partially because he spent part of it on the DL. Milton hasn’t justified the contract that was given to him and Cincinnati keeps on tossing him out there to pitch, even though they would be better off finding a better option and just eating the contract. Milton won’t be depended on greatly this year, as the Reds have some semblance of a working rotation, but any performance from him will help, especially when you consider Homer Bailey is lurking in the minors.
Bullpen
David Weathers (Closer) – This experienced arm will probably enter the year as the default closer. He did a excellent job during a limited stint in the job and could be capable of 30 saves and a ERA in the mid 3’s, but he’s merely a stop gap until the Reds find someone else.
Mike Stanton (LHP) – For some reason, the Reds gave Stanton a two year deal at the age of 40, even though Stanton is nowhere near what he once was. He’ll be a decent lefty reliever, and could earn some saves, but come on, really, there were better options available that the Reds could have invested in.
Gary Majewski (RHP) – Majewski was a big part of the terrible trade that sent Austin Kearns to Washington. Majewski was shaky after the trade until it was realized that he was hurt and was shut down, leaving the Reds to cry foul. Majewski should be healthy and can serve as a capable setup man and possibly spot closer should David Weathers or the rest of the clsoers by committee fall apart, as he’s got a mid 90’s fastball and a hard slider that clocks in the mid 80’s.
Bill Bray (LHP) – Probably the biggest prize of the Kearns trade, Bray is a young lefty that seems to be regarded by many scouting and media organizations to be the Reds closer of the future. He’s got excellent numbers and his stuff, a low 90’s fastball with a hard slider, profiles well for a closer. Again, as with all the Reds, he’ll have a crack at the closer’s job that Weathers currently has.
Todd Coffey (RHP) –Coffey was thought to be the closer of the future, but he fumbled the ball when given the role, but recovered enough to be a solid setup man. Coffey could get a shot at the job if Weathers self destructs.
Rheal Cormier (LHP) – A solid lefty reliever, Cormier’s effectiveness is tied to his command, as his stuff has deteriorated with age. He gives the Reds another option in the bullpen.
Jared Burton (RHP) – A Rule V Pick from Oakland, Burton has pitched well as a reliever since returning from shoulder surgery, striking out 133 in 129.1 innings over the last two seasons. He’s not a closer, but his sinker & slider combo should allow him to find a niche with Cincinnati.
Projected Lineup
Ryan Freel (RF) – Most likely the leadoff hitter, Freel makes contact and has some speed on the bases, plus the defense isn’t bad, but he’s got little pop as far as a corner position in concerned. However, this situation could have been solved if Austin Kearns was still on the team, but we know that didn’t happen, now do we.
Scott Hatteberg (1B) – Hatteberg should be batting farther back in the order, but unless Phillips emerges as a solid second hitting guy, he’s stuck here.
Edwin Encarnacion (3B) – Encarnacion has been beginning to improve his defense (it’s gone from horrific to abysmal to bad in the last few years) along with his formidable bat. Last season, Encarnacion hit well in the cleanup role as the depleted Reds offense faded from contention. With Griffey now a strikeout risk, putting Encarnacion here third makes sense.
Ken Griffey Jr. (CF) – If Griffey would at least consent to moving to one of the outfield corners, I wouldn’t mind his dropping production. But with him at center, which is a far more stressful position to play, I don’t agree that this is a good idea. Griffey lost a lot of plate discipline, racking up strikeouts and dropping his average, though in his defense, he may have been pushing because the Reds were actually in contention. I think he may have one more great season in him, but he’ll have to do it lower in the order.
Adam Dunn (LF) – Dunn has loads of raw power, but loads of strikeouts to go with it. He’s got a career .245 batting average. Defense isn’t his thing, hence his outfield position, but the fact is that Dunn is also very productive as well, capable of belting bombs and driving in runs provided that he’s not your cleanup hitter. The Reds are fed up with him and are willing to deal him. If I was Texas, I would totally be all over a deal for him.
David Ross (C) – Ross hit for some average power and production in the amount of games he played (90) and could improve his numbers now that he’s the number one guy.
Brandon Phillips (2B) – Philips emerged as the prospect the Indians thought he was, hitting well and playing an excellent second base. The Reds talked about moving him to short late in the year, but the signing of Gonzalez means that he’ll stay where he’s at for now. He can hit for power and is reasonably fast on the basepaths and he’s still very young, meaning he’ll improve. I think he’ll wind up being a Mark Loretta type of player. The only caution is that Phillips bit it hard after the All-Star break, but that may be to him adjusting to the majors. As he matures, Philips could eventually move to hitting second in the lineup.
Alex Gonzalez (SS) – Some of the best glovework you’ll ever see belongs to Gonzalez, who is a lot of fun to watch. However, his bat isn’t a plus and that further erodes the offense near the end of the order.
Bench
Bubba Crosby (CF) – A fine defender, Crosby’s primary problem is that he can’t hit. Hence, he’s a fourth outfielder (and god help the lineup if Griffey goes down).
Jeff Conine (OF/1B) – The Reds dealt for Conine, who the Phillies deemed expendable, hoping for some veteran help off the bench. The Reds hope that he’s got some power coming off the bench, but I doubt that he’s really going to make a difference here, especially when the Reds have a Rule V Pick with some promise.
Josh Hamilton (OF) – Hamilton is a former first round pick of the Devil Rays who has been in and out of trouble for years. With the depth in Tampa’s farm system, they really didn’t see a reason to keep him, hence why he was exposed to the draft. I do think that the Reds will probably keep him; otherwise they wouldn’t have paid the fifty grand to draft him. He still has some offensive promise and can play one of the corner outfield spots and could become a regular with some guidance from management. I think Tampa is almost happy to be rid of him, though there is always the chance that he could be offered back if the Reds don’t feel they are able to keep him.
Chris Denorfia (OF) – He’s talented enough that he could start right now, but Griffey and Dunn kind of wreck his chances to hell.
Disabled List
Eddie Guardado (LHP) – I think that the Reds will keep Guarado around, as he was solid for them during a limited engagement last season before his elbow blew out.
Down On The Farm...
The Reds really have only one true prospect, Homer Bailey, while the other high potential prospect, Jay Bruce, is at least two years for reaching the majors. However, the bad drafts and bad player development that existed early on in the decade have left the Reds with little in the upper minors, meaning that whatever the Reds can do to improve, they’ll have to do it creatively.
Homer Bailey (RHP) – The second best minor league pitcher, Bailey has amazing stuff. He’s got a great fastball with a lot of life on it and his curveball is filthy. He’s improved his control enough to where he can already contribute in the majors as a reliever. That won’t fly with the Reds, who will keep him in Triple A unless one of the starters goes down or unless Bailey kicks down the door.
Joey Votto (1B) – Votto is an athletic first baseman that has solid hitting skills, plus power and plate discipline. He’s starting to come into his own at first base, as he was originally drafted as a catcher, and could become a solid first baseman if he continues to build upon his breakout 2006. Votto will spend the first part of the year at Triple A, but he could see time with the big club if he continues to build upon his recent success.
Calvin Medlock (RHP) – Signed in 2003 as a 39th-round draft-and-follow, Medlock is overlooked by many in the organization, but he’s done nothing but produce, most recently at Double A Chattanooga, putting up a 2.97 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. He’s got solid velocity despite his height, and he could become a solid setup man in the future.
In Conclusion…
The Reds’ pitching staff is much better than it was the year before, but they haven’t replaced the offense that they lost to the Nationals last year. With the rest of the division making moves to get better, I think Cincinnati is in for a hard fall this year.
Final Standing: Sixth in the National League Central
And now for team number two...
Kansas City Royals
The Royals showed some growth last season after GM Dayton Moore took a hold of the reigns, spinning off several parts into minor league parts and additions that could help in the future.
Starting Rotation
Gil Meche (RHP) – Only in free agency can you go from staff joke to staff ace in a season. Meche certainly isn’t worth the $55 million contract he was offered, but that smells of a credibility signing, signaling to players that the Royals are willing to spend on talent instead of letting it walk. Meche has the stuff to be a solid starter, but command has been an issue, which is why he gets hit hard so often. Scouts attribute that to the fact that Seattle rushed him when he was in the minors. In any case, Meche should be okay, but expecting any more than that is hoping for too much.
Zack Greinke (RHP) – Greinke was seen as a potential ace in the making down in the minors and there was an air of promise around him during his limited stint with KC in 2004. However, a loss of control plus poor defense resulted in Grienke getting destroyed in his second year, in which he won five games. Last year he sat out most of it due to emotional issues, but returned to camp and did well in limited duty with the big club. Hopefully, Greinke has recovered enough from his troubles to help provide another solid arm to the rotation, as god only knows the Royals could use it..
Odalis Perez (LHP) – Practically given away, Perez was exiled to the bullpen by the Dodgers before being salvaged by the Royals as a starter. Perez slightly improved upon the move to KC, but only slightly, as he was still largely awful. Perez could return to being a league average starter this year, as the ability is there as well as the motivation for him entering his walk year, but he didn’t show enough performance last year to merit much hope in that happening.
Luke Hudson (RHP) – Hudson is actually better than his record shows, his ERA inflated by that infamous 10 runs in one inning outing against Cleveland. He’s had a history of arm troubles, but he seemed pretty sturdy last season in limited action. Hudson has the stuff to be a solid reliever, as he’s got a fastball that hits 97 at times, plus a filthy curve and a promising changeup. He just needs to work on his control in order for him to be a solid middle of the order starter.
Brian Bannister (RHP) – Bannister was obtained for the disappointed Amborix Burgos, giving the Royals a viable starting pitcher to be in the back end of the rotation. Bannister doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has a great feel for pitching and has excellent command, most notably a solid cutter that serves as his out pitch. Regardless of the fact that he doesn’t light up the radar gun, Bannister is a solid addition to what was once a hopeless rotation.
Bullpen
Octavio Dotel (Closer) – Dotel was a inconsistent closer with the Astros before he became a solid option with the Athletics, but injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery resulted in Dotel having to take a stint with the Royals to regain his value. If Dotel is fully healed from the surgery, he can be the first solid arm in the pen since Mike MacDougal was a viable option. Plus, there’s also the value of obtaining a prospect in return for Dotel at the deadline, when teams are looking to get a final piece to move them over the top.
David Riske (Setup Man) – Riske had a rough year last year, after being underused by the Red Sox and abused by Chicago. Riske can certainly help out Kansas City, setting up Dotel and spot closing. His arsenal is far from impressive, but if he keeps his command from going out of control, he should be fine. And, if he does well, Riske could be valuable trade bait.
Joakin Soria (RHP) – A Rule V Draft Pick from the Padres, Soria drew interest from clubs after a dominating performance in the Mexican Pacific League. The Royals decided to take a flyer on him, though there were other prospects that could have made a bit more sense to them in the long run. Only 22, Soria has good height and a fastball that can go up to 95 or more. He’s likely going to be a middle reliever or setup man in the future, but he could be a worthwhile investment, especially when you see the price of middle relief rising.
Joe Nelson (RHP) – A reasonably solid reliever, Nelson will plenty of shots to relieve the rather underwhelming rotation.
Joel Peralta (RHP) – Another decent reliever, nothing to write home about.
Jimmy Gobble (LHP) – Gobble really shouldn’t be here, but the Royals need another left handed reliever with De La Rosa as the swingman. Gobble may actually be better in this role, as he was better in the pen than in the rotation.
Jorge De La Rosa (LHP) – De La Rosa was largely average last season, but because Luke Hudson was slightly better as a starter, I’ve got him slated for the pen. De La Rosa had promise as a starter with the Brewers, but inconsistency has killed his career to this point. He throws hard, that much is sure, but until he improves his secondary pitches, he won’t be anything more than a okay swingman.
Starting Lineup
David DeJesus (CF) – The team’s best player, DeJesus emerged as a leadoff man and a solid defender last season and should have been Kansas City’s rep at the All-Star Game. DeJesus doesn’t have a lot of power, but he has great doubles power and his plate discipline is pretty good. He’s just not a strong threat on the bases, but aside from that, DeJesus is a solid player that can contribute.
Mark Grudzielanek (2B) – One of the more talented second baseman out there, Grud’s hits well enough to bat in the second spot, plus provides Gold Glove defense at second. With a solid performance resulting in a contract extension, Kansas City is well set in the short run as far as second base goes.. On a side note, Gruds went to high school with yours truley's cousin.
Ryan Shealy (1B) – Shealy was one of the minor leagues most feared sluggers, but because of Todd Helton, Shealy wasn’t able to get playing time until he was dealt. Shealy has great power and can play a good first base, the only problem is that he gets killed by lefties. But still, he’s a young talent that can still improve and will be a part of the Royal’s rebirth, as they had no prospect approaching Shealy’s potential in the farm system.
Mark Teahen (3B) – Teahen finally showed the power potential that he had been tagged with in the minors, hitting .290 with 18 home runs, 69 RBI’s in 109 games before injury ended his season. He’s a superb defender and has some speed, rare for a corner infielder, but Teahen is likely to move to the outfield soon, depending on whether or not Emil Brown is traded and when Alex Gordon arrives. Still, Teahen is a solid bat to have in the lineup and helps give the Royals’ lineup depth near the end. There’s rumors that it’s not Sanders or Brown that the Royals are trying to move, but Teahen. If that were true, Teahen would get great value in return, though it’s unknown at this moment what exactly Teahen is.
Reggie Sanders (RF) – One of the more questionable deals give out in 2006, Sanders played poorly in limited duty with Kansas City. He’s still got some life to the bat, but medical insecurities as well as a declining glove made for a match made in hell. Sanders could bounce back, but he’s not a young man anymore. If Sanders regains a shell of his former self and KC is willing to foot the bill, Sanders could extend his career a bit longer as a DH.
Emil Brown (LF) – Brown had a solid season last year as a run producer and as an outfielder and stepped up for KC when Sanders went down. But it’s also likely that Brown’s time in KC is limited, as the Royals are trying to find away to deal him to allow them to move Teahen to left. Regardless of that fact, Brown is a solid option on this team that sorely needs run producers and he should continue to produce now that the’s a regular. And who knows? Brown could be a low cost option for a team at the deadline, which would allow the Royals to pick up a extra arm to add to their rather #### farm system.
Mike Sweeney (DH) – It’s a shame that a class act like Sweeney is on the downside of his career, as he was such a productive player and a whole lot of fun to watch. With him in the final year of his deal, Kansas City will ride out this final year and just take what comes with it. The Royals don’t seem to think that Sweeney will give them anything of value, hence the trade for Gload, but if Sweeney is able to give them close to his 2005 numbers, he could drop down as far as fifth in the lineup.
Angel Berroa (SS) – Berroa went from Rookie Of The Year to bust in less time than it took write Mike Sweeney’s paragraph. He shouldn’t even be starting, but Kansas City seems willing to give him the job just because they gave him a huge contract. And at his age, he’s as good as he’s going to get, which should be frightening to Royals fans.
John Buck (C) – A component of the Carlos Beltran deal (ironically, the Royals have three of the primary players traded during that deal, with only Wood leaving the organization), Buck has been rather terrible in his tenure in KC. He’s certainly got a excellent glove, in fact, he was rated the best defensive catcher in the minors back in 2002, but the bat has never developed. With the arrival of LaRue, we’ll see if competition will give life to his bat.
Bench
Jason LaRue (C) – Brought in mostly to help push John Buck, LaRue is a solid defensive catcher that doesn’t hit enough to be a regular.
Ross Gload (IF/OF) – Obtained by the Royals for Andy Sisco from the White Sox, Gload is a productive bench player when given the chance, hitting .321/.375/.429 for the White Sox in 2004 and .327/.354/.462 last year in limited action. He can also play the infield and outfield corners and will give the Royals some insurance (and save service time on Butler or Gordon) as far as a DH is concerned, as Mike Sweeney isn’t a sure bet to stay healthy anymore.
Joey Gathright (OF) – One of the fastest players in baseball, Gathright is an exceptional defender that hits for little power. It’s a shame, as he could be a starter if he just works at his craft a bit, which it is rumored he doesn’t.
Esteban German (IF) – German can play the infield and hit well enough to give him a shot as a regular. Kansas City wants to give him the opportunity, but they seem fanatically dedicated to the myth that Berrora will recover and become a solid regular
Down On The Farm…
The Royals have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, due to a lot of #### drafts, where the Royals would avoid highly touted talents that could have helped for less talented and more signable ones. This seems to have reversed in recent years, but the overall condition is still pretty bad. However, there is some great talent in it, and it’s near ready to contribute.
Alex Gordon (3B) – One of the best position player prospects in baseball, Gordon is almost without weakness. He’s got great bat speed, plenty of raw power all the while displaying an excellent eye for recognizing pitches. He also runs quite well for a guy his size and is an excellent fielder. He is said to have a bit of an attitude issue, but his work ethic is unquestionable. His closest comparison is Mike Schmidt. Gordon will begin the season at Triple A, but if the Royals are able to move Emil Brown, Mark Teahen will move to the outfield and Gordon will get his shot, making the competition for AL Rookie of the Year a two horse race between him and Tampa’s Delmon Young.
Billy Butler (OF) – A gifted hitter, Butler has got great hand/eye coordination and a sweet swing, according to scouts. He’s a power hitter that can draw his share of walks and hits for a respectable average. However, he’s a horrific defender, and his long-term status in the majors will be as a DH. Depending on Mike Sweeney’s health, Butler will either remain at Triple A for the year or be shuttled back and for as Sweeney goes on and off the DL.
Luke Hochevar (RHP) – Hochevar is the third best Royals prospect that has any tremendous upside, as the rest are either unproven or too raw. Hochevar has good height for a pitcher (6’5) and could add weight to his frame as he continues to develop. As far as stuff goes, Hochevar has a good fastball that touches 95-96 mph at times and he has a hammer curve and a good slider that he mixes in to keep people off balance. He’s got signs o####ood changeup on the mound and can throw all four for strikes. However, he had some arm issues that forced him to cut short his stint in the AFL this November, which is troubling. Long term, he projects to be a solid two or three, but not an ace. Because he was a college pitcher and lost a year due to draft negotiations with the Dodgers, Hochevar will probably get pushed a bit by being promoted to Double A. If he does well, he could crack the rotation at mid-season.
Justin Huber (1B) – Shealy’s acquisition means that Huber’s time is running out. Huber was once a highly touted prospect with the Mets, but he’s fallen considerably since then. The Royals have given him every shot to win the job, but he hasn’t capitalized on it. It’s likely that he ends up as a DH or on another team.
In Conclusion
The Royals are much better than they were a year ago, and could possibly contend in a division like the NL Central. But with the three powerhouses and the Twins in their division, Kansas City won't contend for at least two years, though they will finish with fewer than 100 losses this year.
Final Standing: Fifth in the American League Central
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
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