Well, with pitcher's and catchers reporting soon, it's time for me to dust off the hat and start picking teams at random to preview. Hopefully, I'll go through all 30 teams before the beginning of the season, if life doesn't get in the way.
The Marlins may set a record for being the cheapest team in the modern era.
Don’t get me wrong, the Marlins are a victim of their market, but really, we should accept 2007 as probably a step back, which is inevitable with a young team. However, this team has been gutted of it's most powerful offensive threat and the loss of Willis, which negligible right now, doesn't exactly instill confidence in the rest of the rotation, especially those nearing arbitration. Still, this team has some potential to be a Wild Card contender in the future, especially if some of the arms in their system continue to blossom.
Starting Rotation
Scott Olsen (LHP) – Olsen fits the old saying of “million dollar arm, ten cent head.” There is no question that when Olsen is on, he is perfectly capable of being a Number Two starter. However, whether he keeps his head together enough for him to reach his immense potential is another issue altogether. Florida looked into the possibility of moving him during the off-season, but interest was minimal. They’ll have to hitch their fortunes to him and hope he’s able to behave.
Sergio Mitre (RHP) – Mitre has turned out into a pretty decent middle of the rotation starter. He doesn’t have any offering that is any better than average, but overall he’s a decent pitcher that does a solid job of taking the ball every fifth day.
Andrew Miller (LHP) – Miller, who came over in the Cabrera-Willis swap, has the potential to become a dominant ace of the rotation. He has good size along with a big fastball, which 93-94 mph, touching 97 with plenty of natural sink. He also has a good slider and a changeup. However, command has been an issue with Miller and his changeup and slider can be inconsistent. He’s very much a project that probably should be in the minors, but won’t be due to the Marlins feeling the need to justify the trade.
Mark Hendrickson (LHP) – Hendrickson was an adequate swingman in LA, but other than that he’s merely back of the rotation roster filler here.
Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Nolasco is another arm obtained via trade, but he’s more or less a middle of the rotation guy. The big issue is keeping him healthy enough to contribute, but if he can stay off the DL, he should be a quality third starter.
Bullpen
Kevin Gregg (Closer) - Officially the most expensive Marlin (trade him!), Gregg enters the year as the first returning closer for the fish in years.
Taylor Tankersley (Setup Man) – It's looking more and more like Tankersley is going to be a long term setup man instead of a closer, which is a shame as I think he'd be a solid one. Still, setup men are valuable and he'll help the fish either way.
Matt Lindstrom (RHP) – Another capable setup man, Lindstrom is likely going to help in the setup duties with Tankersley.
Eulogio De La Cruz (RHP) – A key piece of the Tiger's trade, De La Cruz appeals to the velocity #### of Florida, as he can hit 100 mph with his fastball and off-set it with a average curveball. He's easily got the potential to be a dynamite closer if he could just get his command under control..
Rick VandenHurk (RHP) - VandenHurk will likely remain as a swingman, making a spot start here or too, which is good as he's stretched to what he can do as a starter.
Reynel Pinto (LHP) – A dependable lefty, Pinto is also likely going to be the only one unless Hendrickson plays his way out of the rotation.
Justin Miller (RHP) – Miller should be the final piece of what should be a quality pen.
Starting Lineup
Hanley Ramirez (SS) – Overlooked at times because he plays in Florida, Ramirez is an excellent blend of speed and power. The biggest problem is that Ramirez is overmatched at shortstop and he’s probably the worst defensive shortstop in the majors. He’s very much like BJ Upton, a physical freak that simply can’t handle the infield and would be best off in the outfield.
Dan Uggla (2B) – Uggla actually improved last season, walking a bit more while hitting for more power than he did last year. Strikeouts and defense are still an issue, but overall Uggla is a nice little player to have and is a solid fit here at the second spot.
Jeremy Hermida (RF) – Lost in last season was Hermida's blossoming into a star. Underrated by many, Hermida is a solid middle of the order bat that can hit for power and average so long as he stays on the field. As he puts his injury plagued rookie year behind him, I think he'll begin to get notice.
Mike Jacobs (1B) – An average first baseman, Jacobs hits for some power and is a competant bat, but overall he's not a star, more of a solid contributor that is convient while he's cheap.
Dallas McPherson (3B) – Still blessed with the potential for 30 home run power, McPherson hasn’t been able to make the most of his chances, with injuries and a balky back short circuiting him whenever he got the opportunity to be the starter back in Anaheim. The Angels finally cut their losses with him and non-tendered him at the deadline. Florida is hoping to cash in on McPherson, hoping that his health issues have finally cleared up. If they have, Florida could have a Carlos Pena-type bargain on their hands, though still not enough to make fans forget Miguel Cabrera.
Josh Willingham (LF) - Another solid contributor, Willingham may actually see some time as a catcher again with the acquisiton of Luis Gonzalez, which would make him less of a average player and more of a solid regular that will make a couple of all star teams. Overall, I like his bat and his overall consistent approach at the plate, but I would like to see him behind the bag. After all, what have the Marlins got to lose?
Cameron Maybin (CF) – Maybin was the key part of the trade with Detroit. He's blessed with tools galore, as he has excellent bat speed, good raw power, good range in center with a strong arm and good speed. However, he shouldn't be starting with the Marlins,a s he's still very raw in all aspects of the game and would struggle mightily. Unfortuantely, he'll likely be there opening day.
Mike Rabelo (C) – Rabelo served as Ivan Rodriguez’s caddy last season and is a solid game caller with a good glove. And that’s pretty much all he is, as he’s stretched as an everyday catcher.
Bench
Matt Trenor (C) – Strictly a backup, Trenor is now the longest tenured Marlin on the squad. Still, it’s good to be him considering he lives in a nice city and is married to a smoking hot wife.
Jorge Cantu (INF) – The former Devil Ray was a washout with the Reds and now will try to come out of obscurity with Florida's other team. Cantu's got some nice power on him, but little value elsewhere.
Jose Castillo (INF) – Castillo really isn't great anywhere and is likely only going to see utility duty.
Luis Gonzalez (LF/1B) – Gonzalez shifts to a mentor/backup role, where he'll likely see some time in left and first base, depending on the needs of the team. I like Gonzalez being a full time starter in left, while allowing Josh Willingham to catch. It would be a much stronger offensive unit, though defensively it would be rather rough at first.
Alejandro De Aza (OF) – Fourth outfielder with little offensive value. That's about it.
Disabled List
Josh Johnson (RHP) - Johnson went down early with Tommy John surgery and likely won't be ready till roughly May or so. Johnson is a fully capable Number Two starter when he's right, but it'll take him until at least July or early August to get back to the promising young pitcher he was at the end of 2006.
Anibal Sanchez (RHP) - Sanchez also shows flashes of greatness, but shoulder surgery killed his year. Now, he'll likely be held out until perhaps May or so. Sanchez also has a Number Two starter ceiling when healthy and both him and Johnson would knock back Mitre to the number four spot in the rotation and Hendrickson and Nolasco into the bullpen.
Minor League Notables
Gaby Hernandez (RHP) -Hernandez has middle of the rotation horse potential, though none of his offerings are really plus pitches. Still, he's valuable to have and will greatly benefit from that large ballpark. He'll likely make his debut in late August.
Dallas Trahern (RHP) - Another pitcher from the Tiger deal, Trahern is a groundball machine without a dominant offering, but still, a groundballer with lots of stamina makes for a good combination with a solid defense. He's also likely to make his debut late in the year.
Final Anaylsis
The Fish will likely be better than expected, but in reality that may not be saying much. As Sanchez and Johnson get worked back in, the Fish should improve themselves with more experience and hopefully more promise from some of their gambles on the free agent market (McPherson.) Overall, this is an interesting team going foward, but management does need to show a commitment and start extending some of their players in order to continue taking the necessary steps foward, and not just continue dismantling the team every three years because it becomes more expensive than the luxery tax subsidies.
Barring any other moves, the Rotation appears as follows:
Kevin Millwood (RHP)
Vicente Padilla (RHP)
Jason Jennings (RHP)
Brandon McCarthy (RHP)
Kason Gabbard (LHP)
That makes for a solid, but unspecacular rotation. However, if Millwood, Padilla and Jennings improve to their 2006 seasons, rather than their 2007's, that's a potential playoff rotation, especially if McCarthy continues to improve and Gabbard doesn't implode. However, that's a lot to ask. If anything, at the very least, Jennings could bring back a draft pick, or pitch well enough that when Texas is out of it by May, they could begin entertaining trade talks and get back a good player or two.
Coco Crisp Deals Are Dead
There's been a lot of rumors tossed around, and a lot of talk from Red Sox fans that the Red Sox should send Coco Crisp over to the Rangers for one of their highly regarded catching prospects. Peter Gammons, in a recent chat, even had the Rangers (and Oakland) being the likely favorites for Crisp, seeing both teams as needing players.
They are delusional. It ain't happening.
Back when the off-season first started, there was talk that the Rangers and Red Sox had agreed on a potential Crisp for Gerald Laird swap. It was understandable, as it was two players who had no future in their respective organizations, had three cheap years of control left each and filled holes for each organization. The Rangers have no centerfielder and Varitek isn't going to last forever. It was a classic apples and oranges trade that should have worked.
However, the Red Sox instead decided A) to enter into the Johan Santana sweepstakes and B) change the offer for the Rangers, hoping to net more prospects and get a lot more value for Crisp than he was probably worth.
Texas backed out and instead got Josh Hamilton, who has some risk, but also a lot more of a ceiling than Crisp had and has more service time.
So, as you can see, there isn't room for Texas and Boston is now backed into a corner, as they have a brewing problem on their hand and the number of places they can send Crisp to is drying up fast.
So no, there will be no Coco for Texas.
Sorry.
Bottsy At First...Not A Good Idea
Jason Botts apparently is going to see time at first base and will make the team as the platoon partner for Frank Catalonotto and Ben Broussard in left and at first.
I'm not so sure that first base is a good idea. Botts was converted to left field after back issues forced him there. I don't have much experience as far as diamond experience (I was a catcher in high school), but as far as first base goes, it does involve a lot of bending and leaning. And if Botts' back is as balky as it sounds, this might not go well.
On the other hand, Texas has a fantastic medical team, so the Rangers might be able to keep him healthy. Who knows?
Where To Send Shelton To
With Shelton still passing through waivers, I think it's a fair possibility that he's going to get claimed. WIth that in mind, the Rangers should look into seeing what they could get for him.
Though streaky, Shelton is a decent player that can play the four corners and he's a young alternative to some of the usual suspects (Sean Casey anyone?) And, taking a look around the league, there are some places where he'd fit in nicely.
The most immediate fit is San Francisco, unless they want to use Rich Aurillia there. However, in terms of prospects, I don't see much that San Fran would have to offer, as all their best prospects were either just drafted or are named Angel Villalona. Sergio Romo, a live arm that is destined for the bullpen, would be the best fit.
Is there anything else I could do? I don't think so. I would say Florida, but Shelton might be too expensive for them (and I'm being serious. Florida and Oakland seem to be racing each other to see who can get the lower payroll.) The Yankees would be another alternative, but not only do they have too many roster spots taken up by the dead (Giambi), the rude (Duncan) and the Betemiet, but they also seem to be waiting for Mark Teixeira to inevitably hit the market so they can spend the Giambi savings on him.
So, I'd call up Brian Sabean and ask if he's willing to do a Romo for Shelton swap. Not only would it net the Rangers something, think of the newspaper headlines in Dallas when it's announced that the Rangers have just brought in their own Romo. It would be classic.
Rangers May Have Waited Too Long To Sell High On Luis Mendoza
I like Luis Mendoza more than most. However, I think the Rangers may have waited too long to sell on him, as I think his value has peaked.
There's been a lot of talk about Mendoza being a potential back of the rotation starter for the Rangers, and that he could even push one of the vets out of the rotation.
Please.
Mendoza has done nothing to really merit the love he has gotten. He's been rather inconsistent, has been released by an organization at least once (Boston) and despite a nice run here in Texas, that was only after a late surge.
Honestly, I would have let people know that Mendoza was available, and maybe have made a trade (possibly with Laird.)
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
Oakland just traded Nick Swisher to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney. This is a solid trade for both parties, but it taps the rest of the farm system for Oakland, leaving Aaron Poveda the lone prospect in Chicago's farm system.
So what does Oakland get?
Faustino De Los Santos (RHP) - A very good, high ceiling player for the Athletics, De Los Santos is a stud pitching prospect that could be a Number Two for Oakland, given three years or so. He's the gem of his deal.
Gio Gonzalez (LHP) - A little lefty with solid stuff that should be a middle of the rotation presence for Oakland. He'll slot right in on Opening Day and should fit comfortably behind Joe Blanton, provided he doesn't get traded first.
Ryan Sweeney (CF) - Another centerfield option, I felt that the Rangers should give Sweeney a shot. He's got massive power potential, but hasn't translated it into performance. Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus feels he's a fourth outfielder, but ESPN's Keith Law believes a change in organizations could be beneficial. He'll also likely open with Oakland's Opening Day squad.
Oakland now is in full fledged rebuilding mode and with all of their outfield talent and first base locked up, Swisher was likely the next one to go after Joe Blanton, due to his service time and reasonable contract ($3.5 Million in 2008, $5.3 Million in 2009, $6.75 Million in 2010, $9 Million in 2011, and a $10.25 Million club option for 2012 with a $1 Million buyout.)
With Swisher, who will be the White Sox's starting centerfielder, the Pale Hose get a very good player who can handle center, steal some bases, draw some walks, hit some homers and strikeout a whole lot. Still, getting him for cheap for five years makes the losses of Gonzalez and De Los Santos managable.
However, is it wise for the White Sox to try and contend this season? Their ballclub is much improved, but the lack of pitching and bullpen depth for the White Sox, plus the fact that the Tigers and Indians are going to be kick #### means that Chicago, at best, is a third place team and at worse will be battling the Royals again for fourth place in the division and for the Number Two overall pick.
Good move for both sides, however. Oakland gets more prospects (and an updated Top 15 Prospects List Next Week) and Chicago gets a good player signed at a long term price.
Oakland Grade - A
Chicago Grade - A-
On a side note, does it seem that Oakland and Florida will be competing next season to see who can field the cheapest team? Both squads seem to be moving anyone making more than the Major League Minimum, though Oakland has several bad contracts (Chavez, Kotsay, Crosby) weighing them down.
And now, back to your regularly scheduled program...
On The Block – Miguel Cabrera
Just to address the other sexy name on the block.
The Why: A farm system with some depth, but with a lot of graduations, an ownership unwilling to invest more than what they get in the luxury tax, and a assortment of problems at the ownership level results in the Marlins being unable to afford their superstar third baseman and potential MVP candidate. The Marlins recognize they have holes in their team that they weren’t able to fill in the fire sale two years ago and are going to try and jettison their most attractive piece in order to fill them.
The Rumored Asking Price: The Marlins are demanding FOUR players with 0-3 years in service time and all have to be studs. Ouch. That’s hard enough for any team to handle and the Marlins have already made it clear who they want from each team, no if’s, ands, or buts about it.
Can A Trade Be Done: Iffy. The Marlins have acquired a lot of talent as well as a reputation for being difficult to negotiate with. They are going to demand the very best players for Cabrera and mean to get him, but what they’re asking for is going to scare off a lot of people.
The Good: Cabrera has drawn many comparisons to Manny Ramirez in terms of hitting ability and power. He could be a potential Hall Of Famer if he continues to improve and is already better than several superstar players were at his age, including Saint Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.
Potential Hang-ups:
Prospects – The amount and quality of prospects that Florida is going to want makes a trade very prohibitive for many teams, even those with the prospect depth to do so.
Health – People are wondering if Cabrera’s weight issues will continue to be a problem, limiting his long-term value.
Money – Any team that is looking to acquire Cabrera would want a negotiating window to extend him beyond his two remaining years. The problem is, the Marlins have no intention of granting one, meaning it’s a buyer beware proposition.
Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order
Chicago White Sox – The White Sox were aggressively going after Cabrera, offering a package of 3B Josh Fields, CF Jerry Owens, LHP Gio Gonzalez and reportedly LHP Jon Danks. That probably won’t cut it, as the Marlins seem to be going after superstar prospects and nothing less.
Los Angeles Angels – The Angels already look like they’re gearing up for a Cabrera trade, filling a rotation hole by the recent addition of Jon Garland. They can now offer Florida a package that includes Ervin Santana, who fits the service time requirements. However, the Angels would also need to add in 2B Howie Kendrick, top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart, OF Reggie Willits or one of Mike Napoli or Jeff Mathis catching tandem. Reportedly, Adenhart and Kendrick are the sticking points, as the Angels are willing to give up one, but not both. Also, the Marlins aren't too high on Santana.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers also can offer a good package, maybe even better than the Angels. Top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw would have to be included in the deal, as well as 3B prospect Andy LaRoche, RHP Jonathan Broxton and one of either 1B James Loney or RF Matt Kemp. That’s a hell of a price to pay with Kershaw alone, let alone the rest of the young talent on the Roster. The Dodgers look like they’re all about it, but to be quite honest, I think I would rather pass.
New York Yankees – Yup, the Yankees apparently are still in it, looking to move Cabrera to first base. A package would have to be centered around CF Melky Cabrera, RHP Phil Hughes, and 2B Robinson Cano, which the Yankees would balk at, then state publicly that they’re waiting for the market to go down, all the while wondering why the Marlins are simply giving Cabrera to them.
San Francisco Giants – The Giants looked into getting Cabrera early in the off-season, but they lacked positional players to send back to Florida. Even then, would it really be worth sacrificing \either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum?
Texas Rangers – The Rangers have the talent to make a trade, but the Marlins would insist on RHP Eric Hurley, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 2B German Duran and SS Joaquin Arias (allowing them to move Hanley Ramirez to centerfield.) That is a VERY high price to pay and the Rangers have made it known that they’re rebuilding, not looking to gut the farm. This really is only out there to shut up those emails about whether or not the Rangers have a shot at Cabrera.
If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now…Traded To The Los Angeles Angels For RHP Ervin Santana, RHP Nick Adenhart, OF Reggie Willits, 2B Howie Kendrick.
Will A Deal Ultimately Happen– Yes. The Angels are up to something and that something is likely Cabrera, as all of their moves this off-season look more and more like their gearing up to trade parts to gain him. However, the Marlins also need to realize that they can’t keep doing this, trading talent away for more prospects because they’re getting expensive. Ultimately, this is a symptom of a cancer at the top and Jeffrey Loria needs to address it with one of two solutions: move the team or sell it to someone willing to put money into it. Because, quite honestly, this can’t work for much longer.
The Yankee Farm System Preview will be up shortly. But first, time to deal with a surprise move, as the White Sox have apparently traded Jon Garland to the Angels for OrlandoCabrera. And honestly, I think that the White Sox have done themselves a disservice, while the Angels are positioning themselves for another move.
Garland was worth a lot on this market and could have netted the White Sox a good collection of parts to help rebuild themselves for the long term. For example, a trade with the Rangers could have netted them a shortstop prospect (Joaquin Arias), a pitching prospect (can't think of one right now), and another prospect. A trade to another team, such as the Dodgers could have netted them Andre Ethier, Chin-hui Tsao, and another player. But instead, they trade for a good defensive shortstop and nothing else. If anything, this impacts the rotation severely, as they will now field a rotation of the following:
The White Sox will surely miss Garland's durability and consistency, and for the most part will be going with a cheaper, but less proven rotation. True, this move could lead to the discovery of one of their arms being able to take the next step foward, like Gonzalez or Broadway, but it is still a very short term move.
All in all, it should be an excellant defensive infield, but it doesn't do much to push the White Sox ahead of Detroit, Minnesota or Cleveland, and at the most, pushes them ahead of Kansas City.
White Sox Grade - C
As for the Angels, they now have an embarressment of riches, with a potential rotation of the following:
John Lackey (RHP)
Kelvim Escobar (RHP)
Jered Weaver (RHP)
Jon Garland (RHP)
Joe Saunders (LHP)/Ervin Santana (RHP)
This gives them an opportunity to now trade for a big bat, with Santana likely being the victim. Truth be told, he has better stuff than Saunders, but he just doesn't have the command over it. And, with the acquisition of Garland and the rise of Nick Adenhart, their best pitching prospect, time has simply run out for the Angels to try and fix him.
Theoretically, the Angels could put a big bat in the lineup by using Santana as bait. They can easily place Figgins or Erick Aybar at shortstop and not suffer much of a loss in offense there, but third base is a hole and could use an upgrade, although they could simply just promote Brandon Wood to play third and see if the kid can hit.
There aren't a lot of options out there at third base that are available. They could try and deal for Hank Blalock, but it seems unlikely they'd do a deal within the division.
What this could symbolize, however, is the beginnings of a push to acquire Miguel Cabrera. The Angels now have a spot cleared for him and they could offer a package of Santana, Reggie WIllits (who can handle center), Wood and a fourth prospect, perhaps Terry Evans, though no doubt the Marlins will demand Howie Kendrick thrown in as well.
Overall, I like the trade from the Angels' standpoint, as they give up nothing and now can get to work on adding that big bat to add to the lineup, giving them a two year window to own the division until Seattle and Texas are ready to begin their respective campains to knock them out.
The Marlins have managed to rebuild twice after conducting firesales thanks to their deep pool of minor league talent, both drafted and obtained via trades. However, that pool has dried up in the past two years, and not because of the fact that the Marlins have fallen behind in the draft, but rather because they’ve had so much talent graduate to the major league level that it’s left the system very much depleted. There are several prospects to take note of, but unfortunately, the upper levels of the system remain barren due to the depletion of talent, as I discovered during my trip to see the Albuquerque Isotopes. That’s not to say that there isn’t fruit on the vine, it’s just very raw right now.
Marlins Top 15
1 – Chris Volstad (RHP)
DOB: 9/23/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Florida High School
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-7/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Volstad is being groomed for a possible rotation spot come 2009 when Dontrelle Willis books. In fact, he was being considered to being promoted for a September Call Up until the Marlins thought the better of it, possibly because it would have started his options and arbitration clock earlier than necessary.
The Good: A imposing 6-7, Volstad is able to get great sink on his fastball, which clocks in at 89-93 mph, and is able to generate a lot of groundballs. He’s got two solid secondary pitches and his control overall is excellent.
The Bad: Volstad hasn’t added any velocity or mass for that matter, which is odd considering how huge he is. He’s also very hittable, and his strikeout rates are disappointing.
Projection: Average. Volstad is the most polished of the 2005 first-rounders, and many within the organization feel that he's the best of the group, and thus the one most likely to reach Double-A ahead of schedule. For that to happen, he'll need to make a number of adjustments, but the Marlins think that more of the groundballs will turn into outs as he moves up. While it's unlikely for everything to click at once, at the same time all of the expected changes are reasonable expectations based on Volstad's talent.
What He Can Be: A Major League Innings Eater, But A Number Three Or Four Starter
2008 Course Of Action: Volstad really didn’t do much in his limited time in Carolina, so I think he’ll likely be back to start the season. However, the Marlins will probably have him finish the year in Albuquerque, where his groundball tendencies would play well in that ballpark. Also, it will give me a chance to scout him personally. Woot!
2 – Gaby Hernandez (RHP)
DOB: 5/21/86
Drafted: 3rd round, 2004, Florida High School (Mets)
2008 Club: Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: One of the big parts of the Paul LoDuca trade, Hernandez has solid stuff and is young enough to continue growing. While his overall numbers at Carolina are somewhat disappointing, he’s still got a bright future.
The Good: Hernandez has a good three pitch mix on him, with a 91-93 mph fastball, curveball, and changeup. He displays solid command and control, allowing him to spot the ball well.
The Bad: The curveball can become very hittable against lefties and despite his age, he’s really not going to get any better than he is. Lastly, he can be flyball friendly, which makes him meat at certain NL Ballparks.
Projection: Low. Hernandez is nearly ready and he should benefit from
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Despite a overall disappointing record at Carolina, Hernandez will likely be sent to Albuquerque, where he had better be able to keep his ERA below 5. If he runs off a stretch of good starts, he could get a call in a much more diminished Florida rotation.
3 – Sean West (LHP)
DOB: 6/15/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Louisiana High School
2008 Club: Greenville Grasshoppers (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-8/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: After producing solid results in his Low A season, West wound up getting hurt and had to undergo Tommy John Surgery, costing him the year.
The Good: A towering lefthander, West threw in the 91-94 mph with the potential of adding more mass, his height giving him plenty of sink on his heater.
The Bad: Even before the injury, West’s biggest problem was that his secondary offerings were below average pitches, making him similar to Mike Pelfrey in that he’s a one pitch pitcher. He also lost velocity in later innings.
Projection: High. The sky is still the limit on West and if he can get back to where he was and be able to improve his pitches, the Marlins have another homegrown lefty ace once again.
What He Can Be: A Dominant Top Of The Rotation Starter
2008 Course Of Action: High. West's ceiling is greater than any of the arms from Florida's 2005 first-round pitcher-fest, yet the gap between what he is and what he can be is significant. Like all of them, a huge season is possible as they move en masse to the pitching-friendly Florida State League.
4 – Ryan Tucker (RHP)
DOB: 12/6/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, California High School
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Yet another young starter in the Florida system, Tucker looks to be a potential stud in the rotation if he continues to improve. Of all of the Florida arms, I like Tucker the most.
The Good: The best raw arm in the Marlins’ system, Tucker has a low to mid 90’s heater that touches 98 and has a plus slider to compliment it. He also has the makings o####ood changeup.
The Bad: He can be very inconsistent, which leads to his overall disappointing numbers. His command also comes and goes.
Projection: High. Tucker's biggest thing holding him back is the fact that his breaking pitches are lagging behind him. Once he gets them going, he’s going to rise quickly.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 Starter, Maybe A Number 2 in the Future
2008 Course Of Action: Tucker will likely be headed to Carolina this next season, where the Marlins hope he’ll be able to make some progress on harnessing his off-speed stuff.
5 – Matt Dominguez (3B)
DOB: 8/28/89
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, California High School
2008 Club: Gulf Coast Marlins (Rookie)
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: The first positional prospect on the list, Dominguez held out until the final hour, when he finally signed for slot money. Because he signed too late to sign, there really isn’t much we can make of him other than his high school career, which is an awesome one.
The Good: Dominguez is already regarded to be a future gold glover. He’s very smooth, has soft hands and has a strong arm enough to remain at third. He has some of the top tools as well, power being the best one in particular.
The Bad: Really, the biggest knock on Dominguez is that he doesn’t have one tool that stands out above the others.
Projection: High. Dominguez will likely be the next great Marlins’ third baseman. I think he’ll be a lot like Ryan Zimmerman, or more appropriately, Mike Lowell, another great Marlns’ Third Baseman
What He Can Be: A Gold Glove Third Baseman That Hits Well.
2008 Course Of Action: Dominguez will begin his career in Rookie League, where he could eventually finish in a Short Season League by the end of the year.
6 – Brett Sinkbeil (RHP)
DOB: 12/26/84
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Missouri State
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Overall, I would have to think that Sinkbeil’s season was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t nearly do as well as I thought he would do, despite the decent numbers.
The Good: The rare college arm in the system, Sinkeil is an above average pitcher with a low-90s sinker that can touch 95 and an above-average slider. He has good size and clean, repeatable mechanics.
The Bad: Sinkbeil missed time last year with forearm tightness, something that needs to be kept an eye on. His changeup still hasn’t progressed and he may wind up in the bullpen.
Projection: Average. Sinkbeil will likely get sent to Double A, but if the forearm issues or a lack of progress with the changeup continues, the bullpen may be the best role for him, though he would make a capable setup man.
What He Can Be: A Number Three starter
2008 Course Of Action: Carolina should field one of the more intimidating rotations around, with a potential rotation (by me) of Sinkbeil, Tucker and Volstad, but Sinkbeil may be in line for a call up by the end of the season.
7 – Aaron Thompson (LHP)
DOB: 2/28/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Texas High School
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Thompson is yet another member of the Marlins’ young guns, and was selected not only because of his immense polish for a young kid, but also because he would be a factor sooner rather than later. A polished lefty drafted 22nd overall in 2005, Thompson should move faster than some of the club's other recent picks. Thus far, the plan already appears to be working, as Thompson is already in High A, with Double A coming up soon.
The Good: The stereotypical crafty left has excellent command and control over this stuff, wielding an 87-90 mph fastball and plus slider to get good results. His changeup is average and when he mixes all of them together, he’s able to induce a fair amount of groundballs to help him succeed.
The Bad: Thompson’s success has been more him depending on his command and control than by him blowing people away. Double A will likely force him to adjust. He also has a slight frame and really could afford to put some poundage on.
Projection: Average. Thompson is already moving quickly and should be a factor for Florida as a starter something next year. However, he’s not a difference maker and wouldn’t be much more than a Number Four starter for the fish.
What He Can Be: An Back Of The Rotation Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Thompson is likely headed to Double A, where he’ll round out an exceptional rotation for Florida.
8 – Tom Hickman (CF)
DOB: 4/18/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, Georgia High School
2008 Club: Jamestown Jammers (Short Season)
Height/Weight: 6-1/180
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Though Hickman also had potential as a left handed pitcher, the Marlins committed to him after taking him in the second round. After a decent season where he hit .263 with 2 Homers and 20 RBI’s in 50 games, Hickman was abysmal in 2007 and likely will repeat short season ball.
The Good: Hickman has a good lefty swing and makes hard contact with the ball. His athletic ability is one of the best I the system and he’s got a decent amount of pseed and power potential. The Marlins are gambling that his tools should eventually make him into a outfield regular.
The Bad: Can someone say platoon split? Hickman murdered lefties, but was murdered by right handers all of last season. Oddly enough, last year it was the other way around. He also doesn’t project to be a centerfielder, especially as he adds mass. He regressed on his plate discipline, as his walk totals dropped while his strikeout totals remained the same.
Projection: Very High. Despite his bad year, Hickman is a long ways off anyway, so I’m willing to give him a mulligan for his terrible season in hopes that he builds on it.
What He Can Be: A starting corner outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: After that brutal year in Jamestown, Hickman will be heading back, hopefully where he’ll be able to build off of his failures.
9 – Chris Coghlan (2B)
DOB: 6/18/85
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2006, University Of Mississippi
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Coghlan started the year out right in Low A, hitting .325 with 10 dingers, 64 RBI’s and at OBP of .419. However, upon being promoted to the Florida State League, he vanished, going Mendoza with a dramatic drop in production. However, most of this can be blamed on the fact that Jupiter has one of the worst hitting parks in the minors.
The Good: A polished hitter, Coghlan shows the ability to make contact, work the count, as well as hit for some gap power. He also has good hands and some speed to work with as well. The tools are there for him to be at least an average major leaguer or utility dude.
The Bad: Coghlan isn’t the power hitter that Dan Uggla is, nor will he be. Defensively, because he only became a second baseman this year, he’s still struggling to learn the position, which in turn may have affected his hitting. Still, many feel that he’ll become at least average by the time he’s ready.
Projection: Fair. Coghlan still has some work to do, but he should be able to shake off his late season yips and be able to finish in Carolina by the end of the year.
What He Can Be: An above average second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Coglhan will be heading back to Florida, where he should be able to rebound and finish in Carolina. However, with Dan Uggla pretty much a fixture in Florida (unless he moves to first base), there isn’t a spot of Coghlan to move into in 2009. It’s more than likely that he could be traded if he gets off to a hot start next year.
10 – Mike Stanton (CF/1B)
DOB: 11/8/89
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2007, California High School
2008 Club: Jamestown Jammers (Short Season)
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6-5/200
The Skinny: One of the top athletes in the draft, the Marlins paid slightly above slot for Stanton, but the bonus will be spread across four years thanks to Stanton’s status as a multisport athlete, as he was heading to USC as a baseball and football player.
The Good: A excellent athlete, Stanton has good physical tools. He’s got good power potential and some decent speed potential as well.
The Bad: Stanton is still raw and is light years away from the majors. He needs work in almost every facet of his game.
Projection: Very High. Stanton looks like he could be a solid starter in center or at the very least an Adam Dunn type masher at first, judging from the scouting reports, Baseball America love and notes from other sources. If they’re to believed, the Marlins could have something here.
What He Can Be: An offensive power source
2008 Course Of Action: I expect Stanton to make his full season debut with the Jammers, where he should remain the whole year while getting work on turning his considerable tools into performance.
11 – Gregory Burns (OF)
DOB: 11/7/86
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2004, California High School
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: A sleeper, Burns has great potential, but hasn’t put much of it in terms of results. This changed this season, as Burns hit .280/.401/.748 for Low A Greensboro, tearing up the Sally League in the process and showing a lot of improvement.
The Good: Morrison has good power potential that is starting to manifest itself. He still has some projection on him in that he’s still a bit of a stringbean, but he’s shown the ability to make solid contact at the plate.
The Bad: Burns wore out as the season ran on, as seen by his first half numbers (.307/.420/.799) and his second half numbers (.252/.381/.693). He’s also shown that he’s a little more ordinary against right handers.
Projection: Average. Burns has been in the system for quite a while, but is still only going to be 21 and has a world of potential for him.
What He Can Be: A starting corner outfielder
2008 Course Of Action: Burns will be headed to Jupiter where he’ll be playing against some advanced competition. He’ll need to keep the average up as well as show some doubles power, as Jupiter is one of the worst hitters parks in the minors.
12 – John Raynor (CF)
DOB: 1/4/84
Drafted: 9th Round, 2006, UNC Wilmington
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A senior signee last year, Raynor had an outstanding full-season debut with Greensboro, hitting .333/.519/.948 with 13 Homers, 57 RBI’s, 54 stolen bases, and earning the Marlins Minor League Player of the Year award.
The Good: Raynor’s best asset is his athleticism and his speed. He has excellent range in center and is a solid base runner. He has a good enough arm to stay in center and has a quick stroke that allows him to put the ball into play. He’s got some power, more of the doubles variety, but all in all he’s an excellent prospect for the moment.
The Bad: Raynor takes questionable routes in center, something he needs to work on. There is also some question as to whether or not he was simply a college player taking advantage of a easier level of competition.
Projection: Average. Raynor has been a nice surprise and could eventually solve the Marlins’ long standing centerfield issue internally. The problem is that he’s at least another two years off if they accelerate him, which they might very well do, considering that he’s 23 and will need to start proving that he has a future in the pros.
What He Can Be: A starting centerfielder, along the lines of Wily Taveras
2008 Course Of Action: Raynor will likely be heading to Jupiter, where the Marlins hope that he’ll have a solid couple of months to warrant promotion to the Mudcats, where he would be up against more appropriate age related talent.
13 – Graham Taylor (LHP)
DOB: 5/25/84
Drafted: 10th Round, 2006, Miami (Ohio)
2008 Club: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/225
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Taylor won the organizational Triple Crown, tying Volstad with 12 wins finishing with a 2.99 ERA and 138 strikeouts, also earning him the Marlins’ Pitcher Of The Year award.
The Good: Taylor is a crafty lefty that isn’t afraid to throw strikes. He’s got a lot of deception on his fastball and combined with his offspeed pitches, a slider and a changeup, both good pitches, and his pinpoint command and control, Taylor was able to get results.
The Bad: Taylor’s fastball clocks in at around 86-87, meaning that if he’s not on, he’s going to get killed.
Projection: Average. Taylor is an older pitcher, but has gotten by mostly because of his exceptional command and control. But he plays in a league with a lot of pitchers parks and with groundball ability, he should manage to survive and be a decent starting pitcher.
What He Can Be: A back of the rotation pitcher
2008 Course Of Action: Taylor will likely begin the year back in Jupiter, where he showed signs of fatigue during a late promotion there, and should remain the whole year there before a late season promotion to Carolina, to see how far along he is.
14 – Gaby Sanchez (1B)
DOB: 9/02/83
Drafted: 4th Round, 2005, University of Miami (FL)
2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Sanchez was the New York-Penn League's MVP after being drafted in 2005 and made an even better impression after opening last season at Greensboro, but he had a broken hand interrupt his season in June and then a broken toe end it in August. This season, Sanchez hit .270 with 40 doubles and 70 RBI’s along with a .433 slugging percentage. However, Jupiter is one of the worst hitting parks in the majors and his numbers were better after the All Star Break.
The Good: Sanchez is a lot like current Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs. He has shown that he has some hitting skills, with some solid power potential and the ability to draw a walk or two. He also has the potential to make contact and hit for a decent average in the past.
The Bad: Sanchez is limited to first base, meaning he’ll have to slug his way to the majors. Also, he was a bit old for the league, which means he needs to hurry up.
Projection: Fair. Sanchez’s time is ticking and he needs to prove that he is a legitimate option in the future for the Marlins at first base. He needs to at least put up solid numbers in Double A in order to retain prospect status and not start get categorized as organization filler.
What He Can Be: A starting first baseman, similar to…Mike Jacobs.
2008 Course Of Action: Now 24, Sanchez needs to start to hurry up and prove that he’s a viable first baseman of the future. The Marlins were hoping that Sanchez would be ready by 2009, which would have allowed them to trade Jacobs, who would be arbitration eligible for the first time. Sanchez, therefore, is very much under the gun to hurry.
15 – Carlos Martinez (RHP)
DOB: 5/26/82
Signed: 2008, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Florida Marlins (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-3/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: After having to undergo Tommy John Surgery, Martinez was terrible when he returned, but he was okay during winter league action while undergoing rehab, so he should be ready to compete again soon.
The Good: Martinez throws in the mid 90’s and compliments it with a hard slider.
The Bad: Control issues from the procedure are still an issue and will have to be worked on.
Projection: Low. Martinez should be ready to help out the Marlins. It is there hope that he could eventually be their long term option at closer.
What He Can Be: A closer.
2008 Course Of Action: Now healed, Martinez should be ready to compete for a job with the Marlins this season, where they hope he can provide a solid bridge up to Kevin Gregg.
Final Thoughts
For the most part, the level of talent at the top of the organization is pretty much non-existent, thanks to the vast amount of graduations, but there is a lot of talent in the lower levels, pitching in particular, that could make some noise sometime in the 2009 season. But for the most part, there isn’t much in terms of immediate graduations, as every prospect that could have made the Marlins already has, meaning that the organization needs to either taken advantage of some injury related rehab projects to contend or hope that some of their other players step up and continue to develop. Help isn’t on the way for a while, meaning that Florida will have to make do with what they have or trade their two remaining assets in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in order to get some more reinforcements.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
The Red Sox Top 15 will be up later, right now I have something that just set me off that I saw on Sportscenter (had no choice, was at the Gym and it was either that or reruns of ER. And I hate ER.)
Steve Phillips was asked for his recommandations to the Dodgers on how he would make their team a World Series contender. After hearing him talk, I quickly wondered what reality he was talking about.
Here are Phillips' takes, more or less, and my own, in full unedited glory.
Step 1 – Trade for Miguel Cabrera or Sign Alex Rodriguez
First off, I will credit Phillips with correctly identifying the Dodgers' need for power in the lineup. However, this is the wrong way to go with it. If you take Phillips’ later assumptions into account, it’s going to have to be Rodriguez or nothing, as the Marlins currently are assembling a list of players that they are targeting from different organizations that they would want in return for the potential Hall of Fame hopeful. One of those is almost certainly going to be Clayton Kershaw, a young lefty that is going to be as good as Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz.
Kershaw would have to be sent back in any deal that for Cabrera, that's a given. It was Kershaw that was a sticking point in the Dodgers' failed negotiations this past summer for Mark Teixeira.
As for A-Rod, he'll cost nothing but money, but it'll be a WHOLE LOT of money.
My Solution - Why Not Settle With What you have in house? The Dodgers have a perfectly good third base prospect in Andy LaRoche, who has hit the batting line of .295/.525/.901 in the minors and has averaged 18 Homers and 61 RBIs in an average of 90 games per season. Why not give him a full season to prove that he can hit? He's a lot cheaper than Rodriguez or Cabrera and would give a power boost to the lineup as well.
And if you must get rid of LaRoche, go after a cheaper first baseman to save some money for what is about to come next. The Rangers would be happ to give up Hank Blalock straight up for LaRoche. The Pirates would be willing to give up Freddy Sanchez if it meant getting LaRoche.
The only possible way of getting Cabrera might be asking the Marlins if they'd be receptive to a deal of a paid for Juan Pierre (solving their centerfield issue), LaRoche (solving third while improving the infield defense) and including Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton. That woudl be the only way I could see a deal for Cabrera working, though I would prefer to just use LaRoche.
Step 2 – Sign Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, or Torii Hunter to play centerfield and move Juan Pierre to left
Yikes. Here's another bad idea.
Pierre is a terrible outfielder and has a weak arm as well. He's probably one of the worst contracts signed in the Ned Colletti era.
Philips said that acquriing one of the three centerfielders mentioned above would not only improve the offense, but also improve the defense as well.
Here's an idea, which would work with Philips' plan and would still have the desired effect.
Trade Pierre for whoever you can get, preferrably a reliever or a swingman to help the pen and the rotation if necessary. Second, play Etheir (provided he's not traded, of course) in left, and play Matt Kemp, a blossoming young monster, in right. If you get Andruw Jones, which would work, in center, congradulations. You just improved the outfield defense and upgraded the offense to boot.
Step 3 – Trade For Johan Santana
Ooookay, where to start.
Provided you haven't already traded Kershaw, going after Santana creates more problems than it does solve any.
First off, you would immediately open a hole in right field, as it would likely require a package of Kershaw, Kemp and LaRoche to get Santana, even if you do get him to agree to a contract extension.
Guess what, you just opened a hole in right and third base.
You could play Ethier at right, but I like his bat better in left field. And it would make the necessary the addition of a Rodriguez and a Andruw Jones in order to fill those holes, leaving you with a much more expensive roster which wasn't necessary in the first place.
The Dodgers could enter next season by making only one foray into the free agent market and that would be it:
Starting Lineup
Furcal (SS)
Martin (C)
Kent (2B)
Loney (1B)
Kemp (RF)
Jones (CF) - Brought In Via Free Agency
LaRoche (3B)
Ethier (LF)
Rotation
Penny (RHP)
Lowe (RHP)
Billingsley (RHP)
Schmidt (RHP)
Wolf (RHP) - Brought Back
Contracts Traded For Bullpen Help - Pierre (CF) to Marlins For Kevin Gregg (RHP), Nomar Garciaparra (1B) To Texas For Akinori Otsuka (RHP)
And there you have it. I'm done. That team I just put together should win 88 games, maybe 90 if the team stays healthy and the youngsters develop. There was no need to go spend foolishly on several players that may not have been worth it. That's the reason why you have a farm system. So you can eventually have young, cheaper, higher upside pieces to build around and eventually contend with.
And all without having to mortgage my best pieces in the farm and to keep the payroll more or less reasonable in the long run.
I'm beginning to understand why Phillips was tossed out so quickly by the Mets.
