What a terrible system, let's get this show on the road quickly...

Houston Astros – Prospect Report

Long considered to be one of the top farm organizations in baseball, the Astros have fallen on hard times since they were rated the Number 3 Farm System by Baseball America in 2002.

So what the hell happened?

Several things.

Part of it is simply bad drafts.  The Astros have had several busts in the first round, most notably Mike Rosamond (1999), Robert Stiehl (2000) and Derick Grigsby (2004), along with a lower position in the draft thanks for winnings seasons, which resulted in a lot of top talent being picked.  However, the biggest reason why the Astros have been slacking on their farm system is because of the fact that they’ve sacrificed high picks in exchange for big-ticket free agents such as Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Lee and Woody Williams.  That would be fine and dandy, but only if they would have offered salary arbitration to Kent, Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Aubrey Huff and Russ Springer, which would have merited compensatory picks for the Astros to be able replenish the farm. 

The other problem has also been the fact that the Astros have refused to pay above slot when they have lost picks.  This season was no better, as the Astros nabbed a pair of high ceiling talents in the third and fourth round, but failed to sign both of them, thanks to Bud Selig’s dislike for above slot payments.  All in all, this past draft only had a bonus total of about half a million dollars. 

Along with the failure at the draft, Houston has also begun to fall behind in their Latin American signings.  While Houston was once the king of the Venezuelan market, the Astros have fallen out of the pack of their once proud stomping grounds and missed on out several of the top prospects, in spite of the fact that they are spending more on bonuses for talent.

While there is some hope for the future, with some of the Astros’ less heralded players taking steps forward, all in all this has to be one of the worst organizations in baseball.

Astros Top 15

1 – Troy Patton (LHP)

• DOB:  9/3/85
• Drafted:  9th round, 2004, Texas High School
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/185
• Bats/Throws:  S/L
• The Skinny:  A late round gem, Patton has developed quite nicely for the Astros and is now currently not only their top pitching prospect, but he's probably their best prospect period.  Flying under the radar has helped him in a way that it's allowed him time to develop away from the hype that surrounded other prospects, such as Jason Hirsh.  Unfortunately, Patton isn’t quite ready for the big time yet as he struggled in Triple A and looked overmatched in the Majors in a late call up.
• The Good:  Patton's stuff is excellent.  His fastball clocks in the 89 to 92 mph range and he partners this with a hard curveball, which is a plus pitch as well.  His delivery appears to be rather effortless and the changeup has gotten to be a more consistent pitch.
• The Bad:  Patton has pitched through arm soreness through parts of his career, never a good sign.  He's also a smaller pitcher, which leads to further questions about his durability. 
• Projection: Fair.  Patton may have been victimized by his own success, as seen by his struggles, but it’s likely that his late season problems were due from an aggressive promotion.
• What He Can Be:  A Number Three Or Four Starter
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Patton will likely be invited to Spring Training, where he may be able to make the rotation should he be lights out, though I feel that personally, he needs another year down in Triple A.

2 – J.R. Towles (C)

• DOB:  2/11/84
• Drafted:  20th Round, 2004, North Central Texas Junior College
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/195
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Towles had been long regarded to be a solid prospect that was hampered by injury, resulting in his progress being stagnated.  Promoted to High A, where the Astros expected him to stay, Towles was suffering through a rough stretch until the suspension of Corpus Cristi catcher Lou Santangelo for steroids forced the Astros to push Towles to Double A in order to provide for the required amount of catchers.  Towles wound up tearing up the Texas League and has since vaulted his stock in the eyes of the organization, enough to where they are beginning to feel that the eventual successor to Brad Ausmus might lie within.
• The Good:  Towles has good pitch recognition skills and is really athletic.  He has decent speed on him for a catcher and can steal a base or two when the opportunity presents itself.  His defensive skills at the plate are excellent and he's a solid receiver that calls a good game and handles his pitchers well.  He even boasts an acceptable strikeout to walk ratio and will get on base as well.  Towles' biggest tool, however, is power, as he has added muscle to his frame and could develop into a 20 home run hitter.  That’s good news for the Astros, who could always use more power.
• The Bad:  The power is still a bit lacking behind Towles, and there is the worry that his injury concerns will come back in the future to haunt him. 
• Projection:  Low.  Towles has put a lot of the doubts to rest about his ability and proven that his breakout is real.  He's likely going to be the Astros' starting catcher, with Brad Ausmus remaining as a suitable backup option. 
• What He Can Be:  Similar to Jason Kendall, but with more power and a better glove.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Towles is going to be the Opening Day starter, meaning that he's not going to appear on this list come midseason.

3 – Felipe Paulino (RHP)

• DOB: 10/5/83
• Signed:  2001, Venezuela
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/180
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  One of the many talented Venezuelan products that Houston has been able to pick up over the years, Paulino has, simply put, one of the best arms in the whole system.
• The Good:  Paulino has one of the best heaters in the Astros’ system, throwing in the high 90’s and hitting 100 mph at times.  He compliments it well with a plus curveball that has good movement.  His mechanics are said to be pretty good and he has the makings for an innings eater, as he has been able to last deep into games.
• The Bad:  Control is an issue and has always been with Paulino, as he gives up a lot of walks, which hampers his effectiveness.  He also needs to refine the changeup in order to remain as a starter.
• Projection:  Average.  Paulino has the stuff to succeed as a starter, but the changeup’s lack of progress hurts his stock, somewhat.  Nonetheless, I still remain high on him.
• What He Can Be:  A solid starter or closer.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Paulino will be in Round Rock at the start of the season, where the Astros will likely continue working on his starter’s repertoire.  However, should he struggle, expect the Astros to finally move him into the pen for good.

4 – Collin DeLome (LF)

• DOB:  12/18/85
• Drafted:  5th Round, 2007, Lamar University
• 2008 Club:  Lexington Legends (Low A)
• Height/Weight:  6-3/195
• Bats/Throws:  L/R
• The Skinny:  Capping off the disaster that was the Astros’ 2007 season was their loss of their first and second round pick (though they could have easily gained a first and supplementary round pick had they simply offered arbitration to Pettitte), and their failure to sign their third and fourth rounders, making DeLome their highest pick.  At the very least, he was cheap, but overall this was a disaster.  The Astros had a shot at Matt Harvey, whom they could have signed, and would have had him at the top of their system.  He was easily that good, but DeLome, for better or worse, will have to live as the face of the Astros’ 2007 draft.
• The Good:  A solid athlete in a system needing more, DeLome has some good tools, showing above average speed, solid defense, and some gap power that could evolve into eventual home run power.
• The Bad:  DeLome needs to tighten his strike zone and increase his walk totals.  He also needs to continue developing his power, as right now, he doesn’t have the power for an outfield corner, nor does he have the range for centerfield. 
• Projection:  Average.  DeLome could rise quickly if he continues to hit like he has.  The difference between him being a solid contributor and a bust depend on him continuing to develop his power.
• What He Can Be:  A starting left fielder.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  It’s onto Lexington, which should allow him a chance to rotate at all three outfield positions, but he’ll likely get the bulk of the time in left.

5 – Mike Costanzo (3B)

• DOB: 9/9/83
• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2005, Coastal Carolina (Phillies)
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/215
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  A second round pick back in 2005, Constanzo had a heck of a year, batting .270/.368/.490 for Double A Reading and finishing up the year hot, hitting .364/.445/.607 in September.  He also finished second in the Eastern League in home runs with 27.  He was later included in the Brad Lidge trade, which gives Houston some farm system depth, from a team shallow in talent.
• The Good:  Costanzo is regarded to be a potential major league and should be able to hold his own at third.  He as how the ability to take walks, as well as thunde rin his bat.  .
• The Bad:  Costanzo has a big swing, meaning lots of strikeouts, and is also significantly weaker against lefties, though not enough to require a platoon partner.
• Projection:  Moderate.  Costanzo isn't a blue-chip prospect at third, but he's a very solid one. 
• What He Can Be:  A Hot Corner Power Threat, IF he develops as planned.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Costanzo will likely be the starting third baseman in Roundrock, with a potential call up in the season if he does well.

6 – Mitch Einertson (OF)

• DOB:  4/4/86
• Drafted:  5th Round, 2004, California High School
• 2008 Club:   Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A)
• Height/Weight:  5-10/178
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny: After he tied the Appalachian League record with 24 home run in 63 games in 2004, Einertson all but fell off the radar due to bad performance, injury problems, and personal troubles.
• The Good: Einertson is back to where he once was, showing solid plate discipline as well as putting the ball into play.  He’s hitting with some power and he’s got some decent speed on him. 
• The Bad:   That’s a whole lotta #### to go through in just three years time!  The red flags are all over the place, with his personal issues and injury problems kinda making you wonder if he’ll continue on this run he’s been on. Plus, the power that he once had in his bat is now just that of the doubles flavor, which isn’t what you had in mind when you saw him years ago.
• Projection:   Average.  I really don’t know what to make of him, and I probably wouldn’t have ranked him this high if only for the fact that so many of the Astros’ former prospects have just been so much worse.
• What He Can Be: A starting corner outfielder that can function as a leadoff hitter.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Still just 21, Einertson will now head up to Corpus Christi, which should feature some interesting names in the outfield come Spring.

7 – Max Sapp (C)

• DOB:  2/21/85
• Drafted:  1st Round, 2006, Florida High School
• 2008 Club:  Lexington Legends (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/220
• Bats/Throws:  L/R
• The Skinny:  Many questioned this choice as far as a catching standpoint is concerned,  considering that Hank Conger was still available and is a superior catcher, but at the time, people felt that the bat was legitimate.  Scouts in Florida were split on whether Sapp's catch and throw skills play behind the plate, but many also felt that there was no question that his bat would play anywhere.  Unfortunately for him, Sapp’s year sucked.
• The Good:  Sapp's biggest tool is his bat.  He's got great power potential, a sweet swing, good pitch recognition, and solid plate discipline.
• The Bad:  Sapp didn’t display any of that power potential and his defense, despite his efforts to improve behind the bag, is still below average, making it likely that Sapp will move to first base at some point.
• Projection: High.  It may be that Sapp simply struggled with making the adjustment to full season ball.  It may also be that he’s nowhere near the talent Houston thought he was.  Still, I think he’s got some time to develop and given time, he could eventually be the masher he was thought to be.  Catchers’ bats typically are the last thing to develop, though the Astros may start moving him to first at times in hopes of jumpstarting the offense. 
• What He Can Be:  A Middle Of The Order Hitter, Whether He's A Catcher Or At First Base
• 2008 Course Of Action:  With the season now starting over, Sapp will head back to Lexington in hopes of improving his dismal numbers and maybe hit some more dingers.

8 – Juan Gutierrez (RHP)

• DOB: 7/14/83
• Signed:  2000, Venezuela
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/200
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Another prospect from the Astros' favorite scouting stomping grounds, Gutierrez is a solid arm that is still pretty projectable and should help the Astros in some capacity in the near future. Gutierrez was recalled to make a spot start in place of the injured Roy Oswalt.  Still, he was pretty poor afterwards, meaning he’s likely headed back down. 
• The Good:  A big pitcher, Gutierrez has a big fastball, throwing in the low to mid 90's and reaching 96 often during a game.  He's got a solid curve and his control and command are excellent. . The 24-year-old offers a mid-90s fastball and an impressive breaking ball.
• The Bad:  Gutierrez lacks a third pitch, and even though he also throws a changeup, it's still sorely lacking.  The Astros would love to have Gutierrez as a starter, but most see him as a reliever. Although he walks a few too many batters and has also been criticized for a strikeout rate that seems insufficient for a pitcher with his stuff, Gutierrez's biggest problem is his failure to improve his changeup. If he never learns to change speeds he could wind up in the bullpen permanently.
• Projection:  Low.  At this point, Gutierrez may have to move to the pen, as he’s getting older and time is running out for him to find a usable third pitch.  It may not be a bad thing, as the Astros have a set rotation next year and could use help in the rotation.
• What He Can Be:  A Power Reliever
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Gutierrez will enter the season competing for a chance to get a role in the Astros' rotation or bullpen.  If he doesn't make the cut, he'll likely serve as some intruiging trade bait. There's plenty of opportunity in Houston for both starters and relievers.

9 – Paul Estrada (RHP)

• DOB:  9/10/82
• Signed:  1999, Venezuela
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/220
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Estrada has a live arm and has often been overlooked by many during his career.  For the most part, Estrada spent several seasons in Rookie Ball until he was finally promoted to Double A in 2006, where he flourished with the Hooks. 
• The Good:  Estrada has arguably one of the minor leagues' best curveballs that is a plus pitch, while complimenting it with a 92=94 mph fastball that has a lot of sink as it goes through the strike zone.  He has a third pitch, a splitter, which he can also throw for strikes.
• The Good:  Estrada doesn't trust his fastball as often as he throws his off-speed pitches.  As a result, he tends to underutilize his fastball and overthrow his off-speed stuff, which won't work in the majors.  Another thing is that Estrada doesn't have the same explosiveness to his stuff if he comes in on consecutive days.
• Projection: Low.  Estrada actually could have helped the Astros in their pen last year, but didn't get the chance.  He will at some point this year.
• What He Can Be:  A Solid Closer
• 2008 Course Of Action:  With Dan Wheeler not a long term option at closer and Brad Lidge likely gone after the season, there isn't much holding Estrada back from arriving to the big club in some capacity this year.

10– Jordan Parraz (CF)

• DOB: 10/8/84
• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2004, Community College of Southern Nevada
• 2008 Club:  Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  The Astros drafted Parraz in the same year that they selected Hunter Pence, as the Astros loved his upside.  However, Parraz has stagnated a bit and only last season did he enter full season ball.  This season, he posted a line at .281/.364/.446 at Low A Lexington, not bad, but not what you expected out of someone older than the age group.
• The Good:  Parraz is loaded with tools galore and makes good contact with the ball.  He's  got great speed on the bases and has some solid plate discipline. 
• The Bad:  Not a whole lot of power and there is some doubt as to his ceiling considering that he's been in the low minors for quite some time.
• Projection:  Average.  Parraz is behind on his development, but the tools are there for success.
• What He Can Be:  A starting outfielder.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  The Astros will probably promote Parraz to Double A to try to jump-start his development.  He needs to have a big year to continue being considered a prospect.

11 – Joshua Flores (CF)

• DOB:  11/18/85
• Drafted:  4th Round, 2005, Triton College
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/195
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Originally drafted in 2004 by the Braves in the 24th Round, Flores refused the Braves' six-figure bonus and re-entered the draft, where he settled with the Astros as a 4th Rounder.  Since then, Flores has been one of the more exciting players to watch in the Astros' minro league system, as his speed and explosiveness make for an entertaining trip out to the ballpark.
• The Good:  Flores has tremendous range and speed.  Originally drafted as a shortstop, Flores is more than capable of manning center.  His speed makes him a dangerous on base threat.
• The Bad:  What Flores has in speed, he lacks in power.  He also needs to develop some semblance of plate discipline as well.
• Projection:  Low, as Flores really doesn't have much of a frame to fill out and only by learning to pick his pitches better will he be able to hit higher in the lineup.  I do have the feeling that in the majors, Flores will be miscast as a leadoff man because of his speed.  Willy Taveras redux, anyone.
• What He Can Be:  A starting centerfielder that hits in the back of the order.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Flores will likely be the starting centerfielder in Roundrock, but with the outfield set for the next four years or so with Lee, Pence, and Scott, Flores is blocked and would have to edge out Jason Lane for the backup role if he wants to make the majors anytime soon.

12 – Chad Reineke (RHP)

• DOB:  4/9/82
• Drafted:  13th Round, 2004, Miami Of Ohio
• 2008 Club:  Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-6/210
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  The Astros have typically had success in the later rounds of the draft and Reineke looks like he could be another one.  After going 13-9 in his senior season for the Redhawks, Reineke has done fairly well alternating between starting and relieving, though he has been much more successful doing the later.  However, he was inconsistent last year and time may be running out for his career as a starter.
• The Good:  Reineke has a very intimidating presence on the mound thanks to his height and he uses it to his advantage, throwing at 93 to 95 mph with his fastball.  He's got a nice, hard slider that has late life and is a out pitch.  His delivery has improved since he was drafted and is now nice and effortless.
• The Bad:  Reineke's changeup is inconsistent and as a result, he's very relunctant to throw it.  However, his changeup will need to improve if he wants to remain a starter.  He’s also inconsistent as hell.
• Projection:  Low.  It's all up to the changeup.
• What He Can Be:  A 5th Starter/Solid Middle Reliever
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Reineke will compete for a job in Spring Training, but it's more and more likely that he'll be headed back to Roundrock for another year.

13 – Eli Iorg (CF)

• DOB:  03/14/1983
• Drafted:  1st Round, 2005, Tennessee
• 2008 Club:  Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/200
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  The son of former major leaguer Garth Iorg, Eli is evolving into a prospect in his own right after a breakout season with the Salem Avalanche last season, though it wasn’t a full season.  Still, it’s much better than Iorg’s disappointing 2006 campaign and more along the line of what you expect from a number one pick.  Complicating matters is also the fact that Iorg will be out until the middle of next year thanks to his need for Tommy John.
• The Good:  Iorg has a very nice tool set and is somewhat comparable to Hunter Pence.  He’s got a nice blend of speed and power and has the potential to be a 25 homer/25 steal guy in the majors.  His arm is strong, making him a fit for right field and he can play all three of the outfield positions. 
• The Bad:  Iorg lacks place discipline and strikes out way too much for him to be a middle of the order threat.  He also is quite raw for a former college player.
• Projection:  Fair, due to the fact that Iorg was underdeveloped.  However, he’s beginning to progress now and represents a much needed addition to what is a very weak farm system.
• What He Can Be:  An average centerfielder
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Because of the fact that Houston's outfield is pretty much set, Iorg will have to wait his turn in the minors.  Expect him to remain at Double A for most of the year once he recovers from TJ.

14 – Thomas Manzella (SS)

• DOB: 4/16/83
• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2005, Tulane
• 2008 Club: Roundrock Express (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Another product of the Tulane Greenwave, Manzella was regarded to be one of the best shortstops available in that draft.  However, there are some doubts about him, though it's possible he could be a diamond in the rough as well.
• The Good:  One of the best defenders, Manzella has great range and a sold glove.  He also makes decent contact with the bat as well.
• The Bad:  The bat is still just projection and his low batting average and slugging percentage make one wonder if he'll ever hit enough to be a regular.
• Projection:  Average.  It all depends on the bat.
• What He Can Be:  A solid utilityman...or Adam Everett
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Manzella will likely be heading up to  Triple A Round Rock, where they hope the bat finally..FINALLY…arrives. 

15 – Brian Bogusevic (LHP)

• DOB:  2/18/84
• Drafted:  1st Round, 2005, Tulane
• 2008 Club:  Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/215
• Bats/Throws:  L/L
• The Skinny:  Drafted out of Tulane, Bogusevic is a tremendous athlete that had five tool potential as an outfielder, though the Astros felt that his future was on the mound.  However, Bogusevic was also generally regarded to be not worth his selection as a first rounder, and is generally regarded to be a money pick.  Last season was a confirmation of that, as he was only average in High A and miserable in Double A. 
• The Good:  Bogusevic has some talent.  He’s got surprising velocity, throwing in the 90 to 93 mph range.  He pairs his heater with an excellent slider and a very good changeup.  His command and control are said to be very good.  Oddly enough, he hit for some power at Tulane, making him an interesting project should pitching not work out for him.
• The Bad:  Bogusevic has had problems staying healthy ever since he signed, meaning that he has lost development time and experience.  He is also far too hittable, as batters were hitting .296 off of him. 
• Projection:  Fair.  Really, it's all about the health and whether or not he can find some sort of consistency.
• What He Can Be:  A back of the rotation lefty
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Bogusevic will begin the year most likely in Double A Corpus, but the Astros hope he'll finish in Triple A Roundrock, where they'll evaluate him with a big league call up.

Final Thoughts

This has been one of the worst systems I've reviewed and probably is the worst of the roughtly twelve to thirteen systems I previewed.  Much of the list is based on projection, some of it on wishcasting, which results in the following conclusion:  aside from Patton, Costanzo and Towles, there really isn’t much coming to help Houston anytime soon.

Fortunately, the Astros have a golden opportunity to add to their minor league stable.  Their first rounder, 10th Overall, is protected, which would allow them to sacrifice their second rounder if they wanted to go after a free agent target, plus they have several players heading into free agency.   They're going to get at least a second first rounder if they offer arbitration to Loretta and all in all could have a beavy of prospects if they decide to actually spend money on the draft this year. 

All in all, any help via trades or the draft would go a long way to adding to a list that needs a great deal of improvement if the Astros ever hope to return to the post-season.