Why the Angels need to trade Ervin Santana, is Miguel Cabrera the second coming of Mo Vaughn, why Brett Tomko shouldn't have been sent to the rotation, and 2007 Free Agency Bargain Bin Pitchers.

Angels Need To Trade Santana Soon

The Angels would probably be wise to trade Ervin Santana now, as cracks are appearing in his trade value.

Santana is a talented young pitcher that has been shopped often.  It's beginning to show why, however?

Outside of Angels Stadium, Santana morphs into Jeff Weaver and gets killed.  Take a look at his splits for this season.

• Home - 3-1, 2.33 ERA
• Away - 0-4, 7.86 ERA

That's horrible.  Jeff Weaver horrible.  Well, maybe not that bad.

But the fact of the matter is that Santana may not be the young ace in the making that we think he is. 

At least, not in the American League.

In the National League, I think Santana could really blossom.  With lineups that are less potent, more pitcher friendly stadiums (Busch, Petco, Shea, Dolphin, Turner, and Dodger Stadiums, just to name a few), we could see Santana maintain more of his dominance and be a perennial All-Star.  True, he would get killed in other parks (Coors and Minutemaid  would be where Santana would probably be in trouble), but overall, a move to the National League would be beneficial.

Where would he fit best?

The Angels want a bat in return for Santana and are probably hoping to cash in on a trade, similar to what Oakland did when they traded Mark Mulder to the Cardinals.  I don't think they'll get that much, nor do I think they'll get what they would have last season.   However, if the Rockies would be willing to eat enough of Todd Helton's contract, or if  the DBacks are willing to part with one of their talented young hitters, or even if Omar Minaya or John Schurholz is willing to part with a regular (Lasting Milledge would probably be enough to get a deal done), I think that the Angels would do well in terms of return on their investment.

The Second Coming Of Mo Vaughn?

You all remember Mo Vaughn, right guys?  The Red Sox slugger that practically ate his way out of the league by 30 or so?

Apparently, Miguel Cabrera is following the same route.

Cabrera, according to Baseball Reference.com, was 185 when he entered the league.  He has since added on a whopping 55 pounds since then.  Several scouts have said that at this point, Cabrera might need to consider another position change, probably first base, or be traded to the American League where he can DH. 

First base wouldn't be a bad option for him, where he would rival Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman as the most dangerous first baseman in the league.  This would likely interest Omar Minaya, who could replace Carlos Delgado in a few years with Cabrera, giving him a potent offense force in the lineup.

Tomko Heading Back To The Pen

Remember last year, when Brett Tomko talked about how glad he was to be moved into the pen and how he spoke about how he would like to be a closer.

Well, he wasn't glad about being asked to move again. 

Tomko walked past reporters without a word after telling a Dodgers public relations official that he didn't have time to talk about it.

And realistically, the Dodgers shouldn't have been putting Tomko out to start to begin with.  He was surprisingly capable as a setup man/middle reliever and the fact that the Dodgers sent Chad Billingsley to the bullpen instead of Tomko is just bad roster management.

Hong-Chih Kuo will move into the rotation if his next start at triple-A Las Vegas goes well. 

2007 Free Agency - Starting Pitchers (Bargain Bin)

For everyone who wants to take a chance on some of these less than stellar members of a rotation, here's who's available.

• Rodrigo Lopez (Rockies) – Lopez was traded in his final year of arbitration to the Rockies, where so far he’s been solid for the Rockies…when healthy.  However, there is still enough doubt about Lopez that he belongs down here.
• Byung-Hyun Kim (Marlins) – Kim received interest in the fact that he’s a fairly decent, fairly durable pitcher that can function as a fifth starter.  He’ll get work this off-season,
• Jeff Weaver (Mariners) – It’s starting to get a little old with the bad Weaver.  But someone will take a chance on him because of his age, potential, and out of need.
• Jaret Wright (Orioles) – It’s over for Wright as any more than a fifth starter, where his durability as well as his ability won’t hurt the team as much.  However, expect some team to overpay for his services, as they will see Wright as a reclamation project that could pay big dividends.  Hmmm, the Cardinals could come calling.
• Wade Miller (Cubs) – The Cubbies took a flyer on Miller and the result was a solid Spring Training and little else.
• Kip Wells (Cardinals) – Depending on what the hell happens with this season, Wells could see the interest in him build.  How much depends on his performance.  People still feel he’s got great stuff, but honestly, Wells seems to almost invent ways to lose games.  He will find work, but whether it’s on a major league deal is to be decided.
• Odalis Perez (Royals) – [If $9MM club option is declined.]  Perez is a average fifth starter that would probably be better suited for the NL than the AL.  His stuff is rather mediocre and he seems to get by more on luck than skill.  I do expect the Royals to exercise his option, as they really lack any decent options for the rotation, even with Luke Hochevar doing good things in the minors.
• Victor Zambrano (Blue Jays) – Zambrano is an average stuff kind of guy that could pull his weight as the fourth man in the rotation.  It all depends on how well he bounces back from TJ.  So far, the results have been…not pretty.
• Eric Milton (Reds) – Yeah, I doubt that there will be much interest in Milton at the moment, considering how badly he’s pitched. in the past few years.
• Matt Clement (Red Sox) – Don’t know what happened to Clement.  One moment he was awesome, the next moment he was awful and relegated to the bullpen.  Clement will find takers thanks to his past history of success, but as to how much those takers are willing to offer is a different matter all together.
• John Thomson (Blue Jays) – Thomson, at this point of his career, looks done.  I don’t see him getting anything more than a minor league contract, though Ranger Fans should always hold a debt of gratitude toward him.  The compensation pick that was received for Thomson was spent on Texas’ top prospect, Eric Hurley.
• David Wells (Padres) – At Well’s age and with his current health concerns, he’s likely going to hang it up.

   

That's all I got, see you next week unless the Fort Worth Star Telegram goes nuts again.

Trade Rumors Surrounding Rich Harden, The Wisdom in Playing Bad Contracts, The Tigres Covet The Bravos' top prospect, Calling Out Joe Torre, and 2006 Free Agency Catchers

Time To Cut Bait On Harden?

Here’s a rumor that just will not die (no, not the Aaron Rowand for Scott Linebrink trade, though that one is certainly getting aggregating.)  No, this rumor is one that drives me apeshit, mostly because of the name and the fanaticism that seems to follow the player.

Rich Harden.

Harden’s name first came up during the winter meetings as a target of the Mets, who would have been interested in swapping Lastings Milledge, a long coveted Billy Beane target, in exchange for the pitcher.  The name was later changed to Dan Haren and the package was changed to Lastings Milledge, setup man Aaron Heilman and pitching prospect Phillip Humber.  The Mets wisely said no.  That hasn’t stopped Buster Olney from resurrecting this idea in a recent blog post.

Realistically, if I were Oakland, I would see what the interest is around baseball for Harden.  Billy Beane has shown that he’s not willing to take risks as far as trading valuable commodities.  He robbed the Cardinals blind when he traded Mark Mulder for stud pitcher Dan Haren and slugger Daric Barton.  He got a good return in swapping Milton Bradley for Andre Etheir.  The only real bust that Beane has made was trading Tim Hudson away for a lot of nobodies. 

The point is that Beane has shown that he’s willing to roll the dice even when it seemed to be in his best interest not to.  He was willing to sacrifice Barry Zito at the trade deadline, even though Oakland was tied for first with the Rangers at the All Star Break and the loss of Zito could have hurt big time for an Oakland staff that needed his innings eating ability.  And if I were Beane, I’d start to see what the price would be for Harden while he’s still got some value on him, especially since the market for starting pitchers is very much a sellers market.

Harden’s certainly got all the things needed for success.  He’s young (25), cheap (is going to be paid $6.5 million for this and next season, plus he’s got a sure to be exercised $7 million option) and his arsenal is great (works in the upper 90’s with his fastball and has two plus secondary pitches.)  The only real flag (and the only one that keeps Harden from succeeding) is his health.  Harden has not worked 200 innings ever, has landed on the DL already this year after missing a good portion of the season last year and is beginning to gain a reputation similar to that of Mark Prior (I would say Carl Pavano, but many feel his problems are more mental as well as toughness.)

Hence, that’s why I would trade Harden as quick as I could as soon as he’s able to pitch for at least a decent stretch of time.   His value will never be higher and once all their pitchers come back healthy, Oakland would have a solid rotation, one that’s good enough to make the loss of Harden negatable.  Here’s what the Oakland rotation would look like:

• Dan Haren (Already the Staff Ace and is everything that Harden will never be)
• Esteban Loaiza (A Solid 2)
• Joe Blanton (Innings Eater, could be a 200 inning monster similar to Zito)
• Joe Saunders (Decent Lefty as a four)
• Chad Gaucin (Underrated Pitcher that seems to be benefiting from a change of scenery.)

All in all, it’s a solid staff and Beane would be able to obtain the successor for Saunders after this season, as he’s going to be a free agent and will be paid more than Oakland is willing to pay.  All Beane has to do is dangle Harden out there and some team with prospects to burn will make a bid for him.

Olney mentions Tampa, but I wouldn’t if I were them.  The injury concerns worry me and partnering him up with Scott Kazmir looks better on paper than it probably would in real life.  Tampa could have Harden if they wanted to, especially since they have prospects to burn and the majority of the team’s future starters already locked up.

If I had to come up with a deal for Harden if I were the Devil Rays, here’s what I would offer:

• Jorge Cantu – Still has service time and could benefit from a change of scenery.
• B.J. Upton – Tampa is running out of spots to play him as prospects begin to come up.  Plus, Tampa would be able to fill the hole offensively and improve defensively if they were to slide Akinori Iwamura to second, move Ty Wigginton to third and play Elijah Dukes permanently at first base.  Upton would look great in centerfield for Oakland.
• Jonny Gomes – Piazza’s the DH, but Gomes can play the outfield corners and could always be flipped in another deal for a pitcher. 

Other suitors could possibly be the Diamondbacks, who are starting one of the older staffs in baseball and have a surplus of position players, the Dodgers, who also have more prospects than you can shake a stick at, the Mets, who would be willing to offer Milledge and may be more inclined to move a pitching prospect now that it looks like John Maine is the real deal, and the Yankees, who need explosive pitching and have some pitching prospects to be able to move, though they do lack any significant prospect goodness as far as position players, plus maybe…MAYBE…the Boston Red Sox, who have some talent and may want a better option as the fourth man in the rotation than Tim Wakefield, who would slide over to the fifth starters role and kick Julian Tavarez to the bullpen.  The Rockies are another possible suitor, as they have some prospects that are roadblocked, much like Ryan Shealy was last season, and may want a better option in the rotation than the mighty Josh Fogg.  Kenny Williams loves to buy players low and he could be interested, as adding Harden would allow Williams to send John Danks back to Triple A, where it’s clear he needs more time, though because of the lack of position players in the White Sox system, I don’t know if there would be enough here to make a deal. 

Actually, yes, there is one way.  Get the Angels involved.  The Angels have some prospects, particularly position players, and Kenny Williams has made it clear that he covets Angels’ utilityman Chone Figgins.  A trade could possibly be made to send Harden and Figgins to the White Sox, prospects to the Athletics, and Joe Crede, a player Arte Moreno has coveted and will be sure to make a bid for once he hits free agency, to the Angels. 

The possibilities are endless, but only if the Athletics are willing to dicker.  We’ll see what happens in the coming months.  If Harden is pitching healthy and effectively, July 31st figures to be a lot more interesting.

What’s The Wisdom In Playing Bad Contracts?

The Cincinnati Reds appear to be on the verge of something neat with their team, as for the first time in a long time, there appears to be a steady nucleus of young talent to build around and the farm system appears poised to produce it’s first crop of adequate major leaguers in years.  GM Wayne Krivsky has made some brilliant moves, acquiring OF Josh Hamilton (Rule V Draft), Brandon Philips and Bronson Arroyo (Trade) as well as building up the bullpen with some adequate to decent regulars.

There’s just one thing that’s keeping the Reds from taking the next step to success,

Eric Milton.

No, not his performance.

His taking up of a roster spot.

For some reason or another, the Reds are fanatically dedicated to the idea that if they grant

Milton enough starts, he may suddenly provide a return on their investment and become an adequate starter.

That’s not happening and you know it.  Milton’s had two years to do so and all he’s doing is costing the Reds wins, a roster spot, and bullpen fatique every time his turn to pitch comes up.  The Reds are in fact far more productive when he’s on the DL, because then they don’t have to worry about Milton giving up wins.

In fact, they need to do what another team did last year when they realized that they had an expensive pitcher that would cost far more if he remained on the team than if he was just cut immediately.

The Arizona Diamondbacks then cut Ramon Ortiz, realizing that Ortiz did far more damage with the team than he would if he were off of it.

The truth is, the money is already spent, budgeted and taken into account as far as the luxury tax is concerned.  Milton costs the Reds the same amount tomorrow if he were off the roster than he does on the roster today.  The only difference is that now he’s costing the Reds wins in the standings.

The Reds need to hurry up and cut their losses by cutting Milton and sliding Kirk Saarloos into the rotation.  As a fifth starter, Saarloos would provide some good inningfs and, best off, gives the Reds more of a chance to win than Milton does.  And best off, like Milton, Saarloos is already budgeted on the payroll, making it all the better to use him.

Trust me.  Milton won’t be coming back to haunt the Reds anytime soon.

If ever.

Tigers Covet Saltalamacchia?

The Tigers, according to the Detroit News, have been looking for a catching prospect for at least a year now and have inquired about Braves' prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who at this time is unavailable. 

Salty is a solid catcher that looks like he's going to be a reasonably good catcher that can hit for average and some power, similar to Brian McCann.  However, McCann has a firm grip on the job in Atlanta and, unless Salty is moved to the outfield or first base, he's roadblocked.

The Tigers have some quality pitching to spare.  Chad Durbin isn't attractive enough for a dela and it's likely that Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Kenny Rogers aren't going anywhere.  So maybe a deal involving Nate Robertson or Mike Maroth could be involved, possibly even Zach Miner.  Of that trio, Robertson is the most attractive of the bunch, as he's got great stuff and innings eater capability.  He would look great as the Number Three behind John Smoltz and Tim Hudson.

Calling Out Joe Torre’s Lack Of Bullpen Management

The onus of the implosion of the Yankees' pitching and bullpen staff belongs on one man:  Joe Torre.

Torre has had a good run in New York, but he's had two common trait that's been a part of his managing style.

• He doesn't like to let a starter struggle
• He always loses confidence in relievers and has a select group of trusted arms he overworks.

This has been a trait that's gone as far back as during the championship run, where Torre would pull struggling starters and work the bullpen early. 

During the championship years, you saw a massive amount of work done by a select group of relievers, Mike Stanton, Paul Quantrill, Ramiro Mendoza, and Mariano Rivera.

In subsequent years, we've seen other relievers such as Steve Karsay, Tanyon Sturtze and Tom Gordon all fall victim to Torre's butchery.  And now the same thing is happening to Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcainio, two arms that are being overused because Torre is afraid of using Kyle Farnsworth or some other reliever.

Realistically, how long can Torre do this before Proctor or Lizcainio's arms explode?  How long can Torre keep using Andy Pettitte on his throw day.

Torre's not only got to use all of his tools around him, and not just his favorites, but he also needs to know that sometimes, in a blowout loss or a game that's going south, you might as well keep using a starter and have him go the full seven or eight innings, just to give the pen a break. 

Maybe Torre doesn't see it that way.  Maybe he feels that as manager of the Yankees, it's important to win every game, no matter what.

Maybe that used to work.

But it sure doesn't any more.

2006 Free Agency – Catcher

Overall, this class has some distinguished names in here.  Unfortunately, most of these catchers are going to be on the downside of their careers and most don’t figure to be starters in two years.  More or less, if you need a catcher, you had better have a prospect you are hoping to groom into a starter within that time frame.

• Jorge Posada (Yankees) – [$12 million club option is declined.]  I do expect Posada to hit the market, but he’s probably going to re-sing with the Yankees, as there really aren’t many young catchers out there, nor any that make any sense as far as front of the line starters.  Posada may have one more year left in his bat, but after that all bets are off.  Even worse, New York has no prospect even close of stepping up to contribute, which makes Posada returning all the more important.
• Michael Barrett (Cubs) – The youngest of these backstops, Barrett is in line for a nice pay raise, be it from the Cubs or from someone else.  How much would it take to keep him around?  I don't know, possibly about $12 to $13 million a year for the next three years wouldn't be unreasonable.  Barrett brings a solid bat as well as a solid glove to any lineup and manages a pitching squad as well as he can.  He should be the most highly coveted of anyone on the list. 
• Ivan Rodriguez (Tigers) – [$13 million club option is declined.]  Pudge’s option is actually very reasonable and his defense is still top notch at his age. The real question is how well will his bat transition as he gets older and his body takes more abuse from catching.  I do believe the Tigers will exercise his option, as I believe there is strong interest in the Rangers organization to bring back Pudge to finish his career with his original team, though such a role will likely be in a DH/Backup Catcher capacity.
• Paul Lo Duca (Mets) – LoDuca is another catcher nearing his decline phase and, judging from a few sabermatic services (free and paid for), LoDuca doesn't figure to age well.  Still, a one year dela could make it tolerable to keep him around.
• Jason Kendall (Athletics) – Kendall is another short term option that should figure to age well.  Kendall has been fairly productive for the A's and wants to stay, but they've got Kurt Suzuki waiting in the wings that's a Kendall clone of sorts and will likely give him a shot as soon as next season.

That's all for now!  See you guys next Tuesday.