Getting near the end here.   THe last of the previews will be done next week.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins were one of the big stories last year, as I don’t think there has every been a team that underwent such a huge makeover and was still able to contend for much of the season.

That aint’ happening this year.

Here’s why.

Starting Rotation

1. Dontrelle Willis (LHP) – The lone remainder of the 2005 rotation, Willis lead the staff last season and posted a solid 3.87 ERA with 160 strikeouts.  However, his 12-12 record is largely due to the Marlins' struggles early on in the season, as well as a bit of a hang over from the World Baseball Classic.  With free agency approaching next year, Willis will be a hot commodity, though some teams will be wary about all the innings he's logged in since he broke into the league.  On a side note, Willis also is a excellent hitter and has hit as low as 8th in the order.
2. Scott Olsen (LHP) – Olsen gets very good velocity for a lefty, as he’s able to #### it up to the mid 90s.  He compliments that with a great slider and he’s got a good changeup that he should mix in more often.  The problem with Olsen is that he works high in the zone, and gets pounded from time to time as a result.  He also needs to improve his stamina, as he should start to pass the 200 innings mark sometime soon.
3. Anibal Sanchez (RHP) – Sanchez has all the stuff to become an ace, and he blossomed last year when called up by Florida.  Sanchez went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 17 starts, plus threw a no hitter, paving the way for a Rookie Of The Year quality season.  Sanchez's only knock is his size and his history of arm troubles, which have recently reared their ugly head again when Sanchez reported soreness in his shoulder.  Thus, this situation bears watching, as yet another talented arm for the Marlins takes a possible hit.
4. Ricky Nolasco (RHP) – Nolasco has average stuff that projects him to be a fourth or fifth starter or a long reliever, depending on what the Marlins decide to do with him long tern.  They’ll be depending on him to pitch as the fourth starter, especially with Johnson out for two months.
5. Yusmeiro Petit (RHP) – Petit lacks any plus pitches, but he’s got a very deceptive deliver that hides the ball well and results in a high number of strikeouts.  However, he wasn’t able to translate that success into wins at the majors, resulting in a demotion to the bullpen.  Petit will likely begin the season with the Marlins, but he’ll be sent back to Albuquerque as soon as Johnson is ready to come back.

Bullpen

• Taylor Tankersley (Closer) – After being switched to the bullpen, Tankersley really took off, finishing the season in the majors and functioning as a setup man.  Tankersley has good enough stuff to close, but the concern is that he may not be healthy enough to remain in the role.  It should be interesting to see what happens.
• Logan Kensing (Setup Man) – Kensing was okay as a part time setup man.  He’ll man the full time duties this Spring.
• Henry Owens (RHP) – Obtained from the Mets, Owens looks to be a finished product and should be a more than capable swingman for the Fish.  Owens has got a great fastball, but the lack of a breaking pitch is rather troublesome, as his slider really doesn’t exist.  He’ll likely team up with Kensing for setup duties.
• Carlos Hernandez (RHP) – Hernandez was tremendous coming out of the pen last year and seems to be a lock to make the pen this Spring.
• Randy Messenger (RHP) – Messenger had a roller coaster year last year, as he was either effective or awful, depending on the month.  A excellent September gives the Marlins some hope that he can be good.
• Reynal Pinto (LHP) – Pinto looks to have the makings of a shutdown lefty reliever, but he was an excellent minor league starter.  Hence, there will be some teams asking abou him as part of a trade, in hopes of using him in that capacity. 
• Sergio Mitre (RHP) – Not sure what to make of Mitre. He’s likely going to be the swingman, though I wonder if there are better options available in the farm system that could help right now.

Starting Lineup

1. Hanley Ramirez (SS) – Ramirez, part of the Josh Beckett deal, proved to be a capable replacement for Alex Gonzalez.  He thrived as a leadoff man and is proving that he’s an excellent fielder as well.  Though Ramirez will eventually be moved down in the lineup, as he seems to be a better fit as a number two man, he should be able to duke it out with Jose Reyes for the title of best leadoff man in the National League.
2. Dan Uggla (2B) – A Rule 5 pick from the Diamondbacks, Uggla slugged his way into keeping the starting job while entering the record books as the new record holder for for homers by a rookie second baseman.  Uggla has evolved into a pretty good defender and should hit for some nice power in the two spot.  I don’t think that Uggla will have the same success that he did last year, as he is likely still adjusting to the majors, and pitchers figured him out a little, but if he can hit around .280 to .290 with 15 to 20 bombs, the Marlins will be more than happy.
3. Miguel Cabrera (3B) – Cabrera is one of those players that you know is destined for Cooperstown the first time you see him play.  Cabrera was a beast for the Marlins, hitting .339 with 26 homers and 114 RBI’s, all the while showing that he can be a more than capable defender at third.  The real question about Cabrera is whether or not he’s willing to be a leader, as he had his lapses much of last season and management seems determined to set the grounds for an eventual trade, as they’ve been feuding with him for much of the off-season.
4. Josh Willingham (LF) – Willingham isn’t the greatest left fielder, as he lacks range and his decision making in the field is questionable at times.  However, his bat is excellent, as seen from his .277/26/74 batting line. Willingham should improve with experience, and hopefully as the Guppies enter their second season together, Willingham can further improve on his hitting an be a monster of a cleanup man.
5. Mike Jacobs (1B) – Jacobs doesn’t have the amount of power that his predecessor, Carlos Delgado, had, but he hit very well and is one of the only lefty batters that offers any sort of power.  The bigger question is whether or not Jacobs can defend, as he was often times awful playing first. 
6. Jeremy Hermida (RF) –Hermida's rookie season was ruined by hip and ankle injuries, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a stud.  He still has excellent plate discipline and doubles power, though his strikeout rate may keep his batting average down.  He should have a very good career and he projects similar to Brian Giles, a very good outfielder with some pop.  I still wish Texas had drafted him instead of Drew Meyer.
7. Miguel Olivo (C) – Olivo had a very nice season as a full time starter and he put up career best numbers in all three triple crown categories, plus was capable of providing guidance to a rookie staff.  He also threw out 34 percent of attempted base stealers. The only problem is the strikeouts and his lack of plate discipline.  He had nine walks, the fewest ever for a player with at least 100 strikeouts.
8. Alfredo Amezaga (CF) – This utilityman is hoped to be able to provide at least some sort of offense from center, all the while being able to capably man the postion.  He’s likely a placeholder for someone else, should the Marlins choose to make a move.  Word has it that they’re interesting in making a deal for Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes to man center, though the Rays are asking for too much and the Marlins are unwilling to offer any young pitching.  Oh, and to a certain baseball writer who said that the Marlins shouldn’t trade any of their young pitching because they’d be better off long term, all I have to say is #### you.  The Marlins need a centerfielder and frankly, none of these guys that they have in camp will cut it.  Sometimes you gotta trade pitching to help the team now, especially when FOUR of your starters won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.

Bench

• Matt Treanor (C) – One of the best backup catchers in the league, Treanor should provide some leadership on the young Marlins.  That and bring his smoking hot wife to games.
• Aaron Boone (1B/3B) – Boone is done as a regular, but it’s possible that he may have something left to offer as far as a reserve.  Boone is most remembered for his home run against the Red Sox in the ALCS, plus inadvertently causing Drew Henson to head back to football.
• Robert Andino (INF) – Andino has a great glove and will likely sub for Ramirez or Uggla in case of injury.
• Cody Ross (OF) – Ross may be a option for center, but he needs to improve his plate discipline if he hopes to wrestle the job away from Amezaga.  He does have some power, which gives him a slight edge over Amezaga, though.
• Joe Borchard (OF) – Borchard is better off playing the outfield corners as a backup, but he’s also a bit of a disappointment as far as a centerfield option.

Disabled List

• John Johnson (RHP) – Johnson is a solid right-handed pitcher that was dominating for much of last year.  However, he’ll be out for two months thanks to an irritated ulnar nerve.  Secretly, the  that will likely force him to miss at least the first two months of the season.

Down On The Farm…

The Marlins still have some great pitching talent in the lower minors, but the biggest weakness in this system is that they lack any bats that are capable of making an impact.  Their lack of position prospects has become noticeable, which was evident in the fact that their six minor league affiliates had a combined.467 winning percentage.  There’s not an awful lot to call up at this moment, as the staff appears to be set, but there are some players that could make a contribution at some point.

• Reggie Abercrombie (CF) – The Marlins had high hopes for Abercrombie, but I think that he was rushed to the majors too soon and that may have hurt his development.  With some more time in the minors, along with instruction, Abercrombie could be at the very least a league average centerfielder in a year.
• Brett Sinkbeil (RHP) – The sky’s the limit for Sinkbeil and there’s talk that he could move through the system quickly.  Sinkbiel  is an extremely polished pitcher with a low 90’s sinking fastball that touches 95 that he uses with a above average slider.  His changeup is still a work in progress, but the potential is that if he gets that last pitch together, he could reach Florida by the end of 2006. 
• Jose Garcia (RHP) – Garcia is a short pitcher, but he’s got great stuff, as his arsenal includes a low 90s fastball, a decent slider, and changeup that is already a plus pitcher.  The problem is that his size allows for little movement and he’s got very little projection left on him.  Garcia rose quikyl through the system, beginning in Class High A and hitting the Majors, but he’s likely going to be in Triple A, where he’ll await a call up. 

In Conclusion

Last year’s 78 win team surprised many, and showed that you could win with a payroll less than Derek Jeter’s yearly salary.  That won’t happen this year, as the Marlins will likely suffer some attrition due to injuries, the league catching up to some of the starters, and the improvement of the National League as a whole.  They may finish at .500, but I don’t see them making the playoffs.  They will, however, be a threat to the Phillies, Braves and Mets next year and will be dangerous thanks to that staff.  But until then…

Final Standing:  Fourth Place In The National League East.

P.S. – Yes, I was in a bad mood when I wrote this.