That’s all I an say after Billy Beane, deciding that he had gone the distance with the club he had, decided to blow the whole thing up and start afresh. Trading two of his most valuable commodities (Dan Haren and Nick Swisher), Beane went and traded them both for a load of prospects, many of which will be arriving at Oakland’s front door within the year.
What this has done is re-energize a Athletics farm system that was shallow in terms of talent and was arguably in the bottom third of baseball and elevated it to the middle of the pack.
So, let’s take a look at how the system would rate now. Those that made the original Oakland list are in green. The new arrivials are standard black. Some of these prospects you have seen before (Arizona’s Prospect Report), but overall, there is some new content to check out here.
Athletics Top 15
1 – Daric Barton (1B)
DOB: 8/16/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, California High School (Cardinals)
2008 Club: Oakland Athletics (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Barton was regarded, at the time of the Mark Mulder deal, to be the real centerpiece of the deal. Since then, Barton hasn’t disappointed, but with the emergence of Dan Haren as the ace of the staff, Barton is strictly a side piece that could make the entire deal a slam dunk winner for Oakland (considering that Kiki Calero also came in the deal.) He was called up late in the year and left a good enough impression for people to be hopeful for the future.
The Good: The gifted natural hitter was holding his own as a 20-year-old at Triple-A before breaking a bone in his elbow in a freak collision on a pickoff throw. Both his approach and his pitch recognition are above-average on a major-league level, and he can make contact on pitches of any type in any location.
The Bad: The biggest power potential that was once seen in Barton has never arrived, meaning that Barton is going to be a rather unconventional first baseman. Many believe that while he’s got the power to hit 30+ homers annually, he may never do so. As far as his defense, Barton was originally drafted as a catcher, but no one thought he’d be able to stay there. Oakland hoped to develop his bat faster, so they moved him to first base. Because of the power outage, Barton was moved to third, where he profiled better, but his terrible fielding resulted in a move back to first. Hence, he’s awful defensively.
Projection: Low. Barton has nothing left to prove and is ready to start contributing to the big league club this season, so this is likely the last year we’ll see him.
What He Can Be: A First Baseman that will get on base and hit twenty Homers.
2008 Course Of Action: The job is Barton’s starting next year, and with Jack Cust now installed as the everyday DH, this will likely force Oakland to trade Dan Johnson. That said, Barton probably isn’t a player I would be thrilled to have as my everyday first baseman, but he’s serviceable and in time would allow Oakland to take it’s time with a better power option in Chris Carter.
2 – Faustino De Los Santos (RHP)
DOB: 2/15/86
Signed: 2005, Dominican Republic (White Sox)
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Seeming to come out of nowhere, De Los Santos has dominated the American minor leagues and gave Low A Kannapolis an ace at the top of it’s rotation last season. He appeared in the Futures Game and game up a homer to uberprospect Justin Upton before a promotion to High A, where he remained until the trade for Nick Swisher.
The Good: De Los Santos has a neat fastball, sitting in the low 90’s and touches 96 with some sinking action. He’s got a very good curve with late movement that is a plus pitch. He’s also begun work on improving his changeup.
The Bad: The usual. De Los Santos needs to continue building his durability in order for him to continue logging some more innings, along with work to improve his arsenal of tools. He’s also a bit overaggressive, which costs him velocity and command over his stuff.
Projection: High. De Los Santos needs more experience, which could only come with time, as well as refinement. He also needs to improve that changeup, lest he be limited to a bullpen role. Whatever he is, he should do it well. This is a potential All-Star talent the Athletics have gotten, a arm that rivals many of those that are in the Rangers’ system, and they’ll do their best to make sure De Los Santos comes to fruition.
What He Can Be: A Rotation Strikeout Artist
2008 Course Of Action: De Los Santos was going to start in High A for the White Sox until the trade went down. I don’t see anything that would change, except that he’ll be heading to the California League instead of the Carolina League, and hence going to a hitter’s league instead of a pitcher’s league. I don’t think it’ll affect him too much, as with his stuff, he should handle the change with no problem.
3– Carlos Gonzalez (RF)
DOB: 10/17/85
Signed: Venezuela, 2002 (Diamondbacks)
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Gonzalez’s stock is took a bit of a tumble early one, but he was able to adjust to the more advanced level of pitching in Double A and earned himself a promotion to Tucson. All in all, it was a good season, but the emergence of Chris B. Young and Justin Upton in Arizona, plus the extension given to Eric Byrnes resulted in Gonzalez lacking a place to play. Hence, he became an extremely attractive player to acquire and was the centerpiece of the Dan Haren trade.
The Good: Gonzalez has some of the best tools in the system. Gonzalez has a smooth, fluid stroke, above-average power, good range in right field. He hits to a decent average and has a cannon for an arm. He’s got some wheels on him as well.
The Bad: Gonzalez is a bit aggressive at the plate, leading to high strikeout totals. There have been some concerns over his work ethic at times, but Gonzalez kicked it up a notch when competition arrived in the form of Aaron Cunningham.
Projection: Average. Gonzalez has the tools, the youth and some success in the upper minors, but he still needs some seasoning. In my opinion, Gonzalez should remain in Triple A for the meantime, where he could put up some monster numbers in the Pacific Coast League next year, before allowing him to take Swisher’s old place in right.
What He Come: An All-Star Right Fielder
2008 Course Of Action: I feel Gonzalez should be sent to Triple A, where he can finish his development process, but the amount of trades and lack of warm bodies to fill up the major league bench in Oakland (which consists of, right now, Travis Buck, Mark Kotsay and Jack Cust, respectively), Oakland could be tempted to promote him early and have him skip the level.
4 – Gio Gonzalez (LHP)
DOB: 9/19/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2004, Florida High School (White Sox)
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/185
Bats/Throws: R/L
The Skinny: After a year with the Phillies, Gonzalez was sent back to the White Sox in the Freddy Garcia deal. His 2007 season was pretty good and has merited the trade back. However, in Kenny William’s delusion of contention, he was sent to Oakland as a part of the Nick Swisher trade..
The Good: Gonzalez is a K machine, pure and simple. However, what’s really special is that he has increased his groundout totals, always a plus at the Cell. His fastball has good velocity for a southpaw, but his curve is a filthy pitch that is his out pitch. His changeup, once a work in progress, is becoming a solid pitch as well, giving him a complete starters arsenal.
The Bad: Command is still and issue and will result in him getting some tough nights in the bigs. Despite a reduction in his flyball tendancies, they nonetheless will be a concern moving forward. His build also doesn't lend much to durability and ESPN’s Keith Law has reported that Gonzalez gets rattled on the mound and doesn’t respond to adversity right now.
Projection: Low. Gonzalez should be a factor for the A’s in a year’s time after some time spent in Triple A. He should be much better as an Athletic due to their stadium than he would have ever been with the White Sox. Still, there seems to be a sense that Chicago sold high on Gonzalez and he might not be as good as I feel he is.
What He Can Be: A Number Two Starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Gonzalez isn’t ready to be a part of the Oakland rotation just yet, meaning he’ll be a Rivercat to begin the year. However, he should be up with the big league club come August, and should be a rotation fixture come 2009.
5 – Aaron Cunningham (OF)
DOB: 4/24/86
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, Everett Junior College (White Sox)
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 5-11/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Cunningham has been involved in a pair of trades now as well, as he was originally traded by the White Sox to the Diamondbacks for second base prospect Danny Richar, in order fill the hole in second base for 2008. However, the Diamondbacks were able to develop Cunningham further from the raw product he was when he arrived, as Cunningham jumped three levels and ended the year in Double A. He was then a part of the trade for Dan Haren, giving more outfield depth to the A’s.
The Good: Cunningham doesn’t have something that he does best, but he does most things well. He’s got a great swing and makes solid contact with the ball, plus some solid power potential, possible 20 bomb potential. He hits to all fields and he’s got solid speed on him as well. Many were wondering if Cunningham could play anywhere other than left field, but it turns out that he’s not half bad in center or right field. All in all, he’s a good prospect.
The Bad: Cunningham's pitch recognition still needs work, as he doesn’t draw enough walks.
Projection: Average. Cunningham is still developing as a player, but he's got a good tool set. Many are divided as to how they seem Cunningham long term. I may have overrated him originally, but I believe he’s better than the fourth outfielder projection many are tabbing him with already. Give him two years and you’ll have a solid player, depending on what you want to do with Travis Buck, you could shop one of the two at a later date for something nice.
What He Can Be: A average left fielder.
2008 Course Of Action: Cunningham will be headed to Midland for the year, with a possible promotion to Sacramento in the future if he continues to hit. Don’t expect to see him anytime soon in Oakland however, as he’s got a bit to go.
6 – Chris Carter (1B)
DOB: 12/18/86
Drafted: 15th round, 2005, Nevada High School (White Sox)
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Carter is already looking like a late round steal, and has been mashing ever since the White Sox drafted him. However, the White Sox, under the delusion that they are close to contention, traded him for Carlos Quentin (which in itself isn’t bad, as Quentin is a solid young player who filled a need), but Carter didn’t stay long in the desert and was a part of the Dan Haren trade. He was very nearly a Texas Ranger, however, as a deal for Akinori Otsuka that would have sent Carter to Texas was all but done until the White Sox pulled out due to Otsuka’s medicals.
The Good: Carter is quite simply the best power prospect in the Athletics’ system. He’s got great strength and power to all fields and has improved on his plate recognition, which was good to begin with. Now, Carter is able to draw a lot more walks while reducing his strikeouts and is able to choose his pitch to drive it out of the park.
The Bad: Carter is limited to first base due to limited athleticism and is a bad defender even there. While he may eventually be a passable defender, he’s a long term DH in the making. He’s also a below average runner.
Projection: Average. Carter is still a very unpolished prospect, but he has the potential to be the first pure power bat Oakland has had since Jason Giambi was wearing green and gold. He’ll take some time, but he’s a long term middle of the order run producer in the making and that is nothing to sneeze at.
What He Can Be: A Slugging First Baseman
2008 Course Of Action: Carter will likely take it one level at a time and will spend the year in Stockton, where he should have plenty of opportunities to put up some impressive power numbers this season with all the small parks in the California League.
7 – Trevor Cahill (RHP)
DOB: 3/01/88
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, California High School
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A surprise pick for the Athletics last year, Cahill had a solid senior season in high school as a first year pitcher, but fell after illness caused him to tail off. Oakland took him and thus far, Cahill has continued the tradition of Kane County pitching dominance. But his big coming out party was when he made a spot start for Sacramento at the end of the season and carried a perfect game and a no-hitter once the perfecto was gone until the 8th. Now that’s awesomeness.
The Good: Cahill’s biggest strength is his command and control, which are surprisingly good for a young pitcher. He’s able to locate the ball low and induce groundballs. He throws in the low 90’s and can touch 90’s, but his best pitch is a spike curveball that has wicked break. He's a solid athlete and is regarded to be an excellent character guy.
The Bad: Cahill doesn't over-power anyone. He also needs to refine a third pitch.
Projection: High. Cahill is still developing as a pitcher, as he was only pitching for a year after he was drafted, but the promise is there for him to be a capable major league starter.
What He Can Be: A Number 3 starter, maybe a two.
2008 Course Of Action: Cahill will be heading to the California League, where his groundball tendencies should help him survive the year in the extreme hitters league.
8 – James Simmons (RHP)
DOB: 9/29/86
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, UC Riverside
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Simmons was regarded to be one of the most polished pitchers in the draft and was rated as one of the closest pitchers to the majors. After going 11-3 with a 2.40 ERA in his junior season at UC Riverside, the Athletics took him in the 1st round, where he has already reached Double A.
The Good: Simmons’ game is all about command and control and he has it in ####s. His stuff is okay, but not overwhelming, with a fastball that sits around 90-92, complimented by a plus changeup and an average breaking ball.
The Bad: Simmons isn’t overpowering and while he may be close to the majors, he’s not a sure fire star or anything. He’s pretty much what I would call a right handed Joe Saunders, a guy that takes the ball every fifth day and gives you a shot to win. He also loses speed on his fastball late in a game.
Projection: Low. Simmons will rise quickly once he’s assigned to repeat Double A again. Again, he’s got limited upside, which is the only thing you can really hold against him as far as his tools go.
What He Can Be: A back of the rotation starter.
2008 Course Of Action: Look for Simmons to repeat Double A this year before he gets an assignment to Triple A, where Oakland hopes he might be able to be a factor for a September call up.
9 – Kevin Melillo (2B)
DOB: 5/14/82
Drafted: 5th round, 2004, University of South Carolina
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: Melillo’s 2007 campaign is pretty much the same for what you would expect for him. He really is just what he is, an average second baseman that could be a steady regular in the majors.
The Good: An offensive minded second baseman, Milillo has a short, quick swing that has suprising pop. He works the count well, gets on base, and all the usual things that Oakland likes it’s players to do. His defensive fundamentals are good. All in all, he’s near ready for the show and could be a producer in the 6 or 7 hole.
The Bad: Melillo has had some minor knee issues in the past and when he falls in love with the long ball, he gets pull happy. He also has below average range and hands, and is nowhere near the Gold Glover type defense Oakland has come to expect from it’s second basemen.
Projection: Low. Melillo is ready for the show and with this year looking like a rebuilding one, Oakland would be wise to see what they have.
What He Can Be: An average second baseman.
2008 Course Of Action: Ellis has recently had his $5 million club option for 2008 exercised, but that doesn’t mean he’ll remain on the team, especially now that Oakland is in full scale rebuilding mode. Ellis is pretty attractive right now as a cheap date and could fetch a decent prize while allowing Melillo to play everyday.
10 – Sean Doolittle (1B)
DOB: 9/26/86
Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, Virginia
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Doolittle was on the rise after a year in Virginia and was projected to be picked somewhere in the lower end of the first round. However, Porcello’s fall along with some other shenanigans with the Pirates resulted in Doolittle falling into the supplemental round, where Oakland took him. He had a pretty good debut for Oakland.
The Good: An athletic first baseman, Doolittle makes good, consistent solid contact from the left side and should hit for average in the future. He has an above average arm, which was seen from his days as a two way player at Virginia, plus he shows decent range and can even run a bit too.
The Bad: Doolittle lacks any sort of power potential at first base, which isn’t what you want out of a power position.
Projection: Average. Doolittle may rise quickly and while he may not have home run power, doubles power may exist within him.
What He Can Be: A average first baseman that hits for average, but not for power.
2008 Course Of Action: Doolittle has the talent to be a productive major leaguer, but it won’t be for Oakland. Barton is now the Athletics’ first baseman and the A’s now have a stronger but unfortunately for him, he’s also blocked by both Dan Johnson and Daric Barton, meaning that in the future, Doolittle’s likely value to Oakland is trade bait.
11 – Henry Rodriguez (RHP)
DOB: 2/25/87
Signed: 2003, Venezuela
2008 Club: Midland Rockhounds (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A big signing out of Venezuela a few years ago has taken a big step forward with the Cougars this year, though his record doesn’t show for it. Still, it’s pretty impressive considering how raw he was last year when he was torched in the Arizona Rookie League.
The Good: Rodriguez has the best raw stuff in the organization, as his fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and has been clocked as high as 100. His curveball and changeup look like they could eventually be plus pitches, which could give him a potentially lethal arsenal if he’s able to put it all together. All in all, he’s a project, but one that could pay off big.
The Bad: Rodriguez is, as I’ve said, a raw product, and he’s had some issues with control that have resulted in some ugly outings for him. There are also maturity issues with Rodriguez, but that really isn’t unexpected.
Projection: Very High. Rodriguez could become a beast if he continues to work on his stuff. He’s more than just an arm strength type of prospect and he’s got the skill set to be a solid middle of the rotation K machine if he continues to develop on schedule. Still, he’s got a long way to go.
What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation strikeout machine.
2008 Course Of Action: With another season under his belt in Double A, Rodriguez could very well help his cause to eventually become a option for Oakland come 2009 or 2010, joining some of the other young athletics in the rebuilding effort.
12 – Ryan Sweeney (CF)
DOB: 2/20/85
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, Iowa High School
2008 Club: Sacramento River Cats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: The former first rounder did nothing to shake his bust tag and didn’t earn a late season call up, even with Chicago’s less than stellar outfield situation. Chicago was shopping him furiously and finally got to get rid of him in Swisher deal.
The Good: Sweeney is big, athletic, and has some offensive skills. He has a quick swing, some power and makes good contact. He doesn’t’ strikeout often and has enough wheels to play center, along with a strong arm.
The Bad: Sweeney was always to projected to hit for power. That obviously haven’t happened and most don’t see him as a centerfielder long term. He’s also got issues against lefties as well.
Projection: Low. Sweeney may be able to stick with Oakland as a centerfielder in the short term, if they feel he might be able to be adequate in center, and he may be able to tap into that long dormant power potential with the right coaching. I kinda doubt it, though.
What He Can Be: A starting centerfielder
Timetable: While Sweeney has clearly stagnated, it’s hard to see him avoiding a third year at Triple-A without a monster spring training. This next year is absolutely pivotal for him.
13 – Jermaine Mitchell (CF)
DOB: 11/2/84
Drafted: 5th round, 2006, UNC-Greensboro
2008 Club: Stockton Ports (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-0/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: . Taken from a small school, many felt that Mitchell would only be organizational filler, a fourth outfielder at best. He's since proven to be potentially better than that after another solid season, this time for Kane County.
The Good: Mitchell could be one of the latest Oakland scouting department steals if he continues to produce. Mitchell is a solid centerfielder with a good arm, good range and solid speed. He’s also got a quick bat and some excellent plate discipline. All in all, he’s a good package of tools that could really blossom into something good.
The Bad: Mitchell’s swing is complex and needs to be simplified. The power that was thought to have been in Mitchell hasn’t manifested himself. He’s also murdered by right handers and had some extreme home-away splits as well, meaning that he’s got some work to do unless he wants to be a platoon centerfielder.
Projection: High. Mitchell took a step forward in his development, not as big as Oakland may have expected, but it’s a start.
What He Can Be: An everyday big-league outfielder.
2008 Course Of Action: I expect Mitchell to be the Ports' starting centerfielder this season. Oakland eventually sees him to be a centerfielder for the future option, though at the moment, he's still got a long way to go.
14 – Brett Anderson (LHP)
DOB: 2/1/88
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Oklahoma High School (Diamondbacks)
2008 Club: Visalia Oaks (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Last year, Anderson was one of the more difficult high school pitchers to evaluate, and his bonus demands resulted in him falling out of the first and supplemental rounds. The Diamondbacks were intrigued enough to pull the trigger on him, even though he wasn't a power pitcher and never will be. His final line was 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA between Low and High A, but Arizona won’t realize the returns on their investment, as he’s now an A.
The Good: The son of Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson, Anderson's mechanics are solid and he has remarkable control of his breaking stuff and off-speed pitches. He's got a very deep repertoire, with three solid pitches, the best being a changeup that he can throw for strikes. He’s got a good pitcher’s build and could even add a little more mass.
The Bad: Anderson is also not very athletic and his fastball clocks in the high 80's, touching 91 on occasion.
Projection: Average. Anderson still has a lot of work to do in terms of improving himself, but his ability to induce groundballs and log in innings should result in some success in the majors. I feel he’s been overrated some due to his results, which are misleading, but his stuff isn’t fantastic and in the American League, he should fit in as a Number Three or Four starter. But hey, Barry Zito was able to last for a while with less than impressive repertoire and one major money pitch.
What He Can Be: An innings eater.
2008 Course Of Action: Anderson got hit hard in the California League and likely will repeat there to begin next year.
15 – Javier Herrera (OF)
DOB: 4/9/85
Signed: 2001, Venezuela
2008 Club: Sacramento River Casts (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 5-10/160
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: After missing a year thanks to Tommy John Surgery, Herrera had a mostly average comeback season. While it’s not pretty, it’s still a promising development and should be expected form a guy coming off TJ.
The Good: Herrera He has above-average hitting skills to go with plus power and speed, as well as good range to both sides in centerfield and an above-average arm.
The Bad: Herrera's conditioning is a bit of an issue, as he did put on some weight during his inactivity, but he was able to drop most of it. He’s also a bit reckless on the field, plus his power potential hasn’t manifested itself quite yet.
Projection: High. Herrera is still working to come all the way back from TJ, but so far so good.
What He Can Be: A above average centerfielder
2008 Course Of Action: Expect the Athletics to push Herrera a bit by promoting him to Triple A, where he could work well if he’s finally able to get his tools together.
Final Thoughts
With the rebuilding effort now in full swing, Oakland has a good deal of prospect depth to develop to form the core of their next championship core. With little in terms of long term contracts other than those that are immobile (Chavez, Crosby) and one major one leaving the books after this year (Kotsay), Oakland has the financial flexibility to work with to get this set of prospects going and locked up to some near term deals when the time comes. All in all, Oakland has enough to field a contender with what they have in their system, though the pitching won’t be as explosive as it once was, back in the day when the Big Three roamed MacAfee Coliseum.
One thing to note, however, is that Oakland hasn’t done a particularly good job of drafting high ceiling, star level talent. Much of their new top 15 is from outside of the organization, with 8 of the total top 15 and 6 of the top 10 being drafted by other squads. While much kudos needs to be given to Oakland for getting them, they do need to do a better job of drafting their own star players and not always playing it safe. Spending some more money on later round talents would be a start and revamping the international scouting system would be another way to help keep the pipeline to talent flowing to Oakland.
Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)
The Balance of Power just shifted in the American League West thans to the Dan Haren Trade.
First, The Arizona Side of the trade. Arizona gets a solid Number Two starter and sends several blocked prospects to Oakland in exchange for roster certainty. None of the players really had a chance of cracking Arizona's roster, save Chris Carter, and for the Diamondbacks, it's about winning now and worrying about the farm depth emptying out later.
Arizona's new lineup is likely the following:
Brandon Webb (RHP)
Dan Haren (RHP)
Doug Davis (LHP)
Micah Owings (RHP)
Randy Johnson (LHP)
That's a much strong rotation, much better than last years.
Overall, this trade works for them.
As for Oakland, it's a symbol that Billy Beane has conceded the season and is beginning to rebuild. As seen from my farm system previews, Beane doesn't have a ton of high ceiling talent in his minor league system and much of the talent that is close to being drawn upon is already up.
And Beane has shown that he is willing to conduct a full scale rebuild sooner rather than later and likely saw that it was time to do so.
So, let's take a look at each of the players recieved:
Chris Carter (1B) - A pure masher, Carter has plenty of upside. He's not the greatest defender, but he's passable enough. Overall, he's a middle of the order power threat waiting to happen.
Aaron Cunningham (OF) - Stolen from the White Sox in the Danny Richar move, Cunningham has a high upside, as he hits the ball to all fields and has some speed and power. Many compare him to former A's outfielder Eric Byrnes. I say he's more like a young Steve Finley.
Carlos Gonzalez (RF) - Gonzalez is another young outfielder that can mash, given the opportunity. He could start in Oakland right now, pushing Swisher to center and Kotsay out the door if Oakland is willing to take pennies on the dollar.
Brett Anderson (LHP) - A decent left hander with okay stuff, he's more of a Number Four starter at best, though he does have innings eater potential. He'll do well in that ballpark than he ever would have in Arizona.
Gregg Smith and Dana Eveland - Decent arms, but more likely to wind up as relief prospects than anything else.
Overall, it's a trade of quantity over quality. The A's did get a pair of high upside players in Cunningham and Carter, but I wonder if they shouldn't have pushed the Diamondbacks for Matt Scherzer, a pitcher better than Anderson, Smith and Evaland and well worth waiting for.
It's a good trade, as it gives the A's options to play with in the outfield and a future power threat in Carter. I'm just wondering if it was enough to justify the Haren trade. Oakland needs pitching and unless they're planning on using high draft picks due to low finishes on near ready college pitching, they'll be hurting for quite some time.
This trade also officially gives the divisional race solely to the Mariners and Angels. With Oakland and Texas now entering full scale rebuilds (with Texas slightly ahead due to two good drafts and a couple of smart trades), it should be interesting watching the Mariners and Angels slug it out with each other.
If that's the case, then while my team is out of contention, I'll be rooting for Seattle.
I checked out Ken Davidoff's latest column for Newsday yesterday, which was advice to Omar Minaya for how to improve the team next year.
For the most part, the column is good, with praise for keepng Willie Randolph and some of Minaya's minor trades and dealings, the only one two under issue being Luis Castillo and Moises Alou. However, his advice for how to improve the team is...flawed to say the least.
Much like my recent Steve Phillips rant, this one is more of a trashing o####uy that really has no idea what the hell he is talking about.
Let's see his advice to improve the Mets:
Trade Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect to the A's for Dan Haren.
What the hell?
Okay, first off, Davidoff rightly tells Minaya he's got no chance for Johan Santana. However, he forgets to tell him that he's got no chance to scoring Haren either.
Haren is a legitimate top of the rotation starter that is signed for a very affordable amount of money, $4 million in 2008, $5.5 million in 2009 and $6.75 million (team option) in 2010. He is also not going to be had for this package. It's not enough.
Heilman is a okay setup man and Milledge can be a superstar. But Mulvey is merely a decent starting pitching prospect, maybe a Number Two or Three, more likely a Number Four, and unless the Mets are including Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez as the lower level prospect, this package isn't near enough.
Beane is likely going to look for a package similar to what the Twins are asking for Santana, three prospects near ready to play full time. There are several teams that could easily beat the Mets' offer, notably the Rangers and Mariners, who could offer better prospects than the Mets ever could.
Sorry Ken.
I'll detail Haren's price in a future On The Block.
This deal looks like hell now that you consider how Haren has ascended to the role of staff ace and how Calero has been one of the best setup men in the business. But how did this trade look like before, when the deal first went down? Let’s take a look back shall we?
With Mulder and Hudson nearing free agency, it was beginning to look like Oakland would have to move one or two of their big three aces as soon as possible or risk losing all three and getting nothing but draft picks in return. Deeming Zito’s production to be the most important of the bunch, as he was and still is remarkably durable, Oakland sent out feelers to see what they could obtain in return.
At the time, despite having a solid rotation, the Cardinals felt that they lacked a true ace on the team, and wanted a upgrade over Woody Williams, whom St. Louis would allow to leave via free agency. Seeking that final push over the top, having just made it to the World Series and come up short against Boston, the Cardinals felt that Mulder, arguably the best of the Big Three, would fit the bill nicely.
So, taking a looksee at the deal at the time, here’s is, in essence, what the Cardinals offered up for Mulder.:
Dan Haren (RHP) – A promising, but still untested pitching prospect that certainly had the potential to be an ace starter, but when compared to Mulder, Haren’s promise paled in comparison. I know it seems funny, but that’s how Haren was viewed when the deal went down.
Kiki Calero (RHP) – An excellent setup man that had solid results, but some health issues and was far from overpowering.
Daric Barton (C) – Actually, Barton was viewed to be the best piece that was being exchanged in the deal. While he was a terrible catcher, Barton had one of the best bats in the Cardinals system and had power and plate discipline to match. The lack of defense didn’t scare off Oakland and viewed him to be their first baseman/DH of the future.
And, let’s look at how our boy Mulder was viewed…
Mark Mulder (LHP) – Mulder, despite being eligible for free agency following the 2006 season and coming off his worst season since his rookie campaign, his 17-8 record and 4.43 ERA, were generally viewed to be very good and could possibly improve into dominace if placed into the National League. There were some worries, mostly about his health issues, but really, there wasn’t anything to be afraid of (at the time.)
So here is how the deal was viewed, at the time.
Ace Quality Starter With Two Years Of Control Left For Quality Right Handed Pitching Prospect, A Nice Setup Man and A Intriguing, But Defensively Challenged Hitting Prospect
And of course, we now all know the result. Daren has become the ace of the Athletics and is one of the most dominating young starters in the game. Calero was been solid, as it was expected, and Barton is Oakland’s best prospect. Mulder, meanwhile, has succumbed to numerous injuries and may never be the same pitcher again. St. Louis now looks like it could use all three of the pieces that they gave up and realistically, this was a trade that didn’t need to be made, as St. Louis could have gotten roughly what Mulder gave them from Haren.
Don’t feel too bad for Walt Jockety, however. Remember this deal a few years back….
July 31, 1997 – The Oakland Athletics trade Mark McGwire to the St. Louis Cardinals for Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, and Blake Stein
McGwire wound up being a fan favorite in St. Louis and quite productive for a few years.
Ludwick, Matthews and Stein never amounted to anything for Oakland.
The Athletics made the post-season for the first time since 2003. However, unlike the old Oakland teams of old, the 2006 Athletics made the post-season on the backs of their exceptional pitching and defense, plus with the presence of a resurgent Frank Thomas.
However, free agency took it’s toll. Thomas and Zito, two integral parts of the team, left for larger term deals elsewhere. To try and lessen the impact, the A’s signed Mike Piazza to a one year deal and are depending on a slew of Rule V draft picks to help bridge the gap until the next generation of A’s can step in.
Starting Rotation
Dan Haren (RHP) –Going into September last year, Haren had a 3.80 ERA, but then he struggled and wound up with an 4.12. Still very solid, along with his 14 wins,. But I think Haren is a stud and could be on the verge of greatness. He does give up the long ball (31 homers in '06), but his strikeout ability and competitive mentality make me think that we’re going to see what Haren can really do. Who needs Barry Zito when you’ve got him?
Rich Harden (RHP) – Okay, maybe you do need Zito after all. Harden has talent, very good talent. But his health makes him unreliable and hoping that he’ll be the ace of the staff is asking way too much of a pitcher that’s made a grand total of 31 starts in the last two years. Maybe he’ll bounce back and have a solid year. But so far, all the projections say no.
Esteban Loaiza (RHP) – Loaiza got to a rough start last year, but once he got going, he was a solid addition to the Oakland rotation, giving them depth and allowing the weaker arm of Joe Blanton to be farther back in the rotation. Loaiza will now be counted on more than ever, as Zito is gone and Harden is a huge question mark.
Joe Blanton (RHP) – Blanton lead Oakland in wins the past two years and is regarded to be a horse in that he can eat innings. But Blanton lacks overpowering stuff and there are questions about his work ethic. Hence, some regard him as a better fit in the National League, where the margin for error is smaller, though again, Oakland would have to find a suitable replacement before doing so.
Joe Kennedy (LHP) – Kennedy is regarded to be the favorite to win the fifth starters job. It’s a gamble, as no one really knows how well he’ll do. Kennedy could be great, but there’s also a huge chance that this experiment could blow up in their faces. Projections have him so far being league average, which is all you can ask for out of the fifth spot.
Bullpen
Huston Street (Closer) – Street stepped into the closer’s role after Octavio Dotel went down and has never looked back, becoming one of the most solid closers in baseball. However, it was apparent last season that he may have been rushed a bit, as he suffered from exhaustion, as well as overuse from then A’s manager Ken Macha. Provided that Oakland doesn’t overuse him like a certain New York manager does with his own star closer, he’ll be fine.
Justin Duchscherer (Setup Man) – Duchscherer is a solid setup man that usually sets up Street. In the event that Street goes down, Duchscherer should be more than up to the task to close things out. There's also talk that Oakland could move Duchscherer now, as his market is actually kinda high.
Kiki Calero (RHP) – Calero is another solid reliever that could spot close if he has to.
Jay Marshall (LHP) – Drafted by Oakland from the White Sox in the Rule V Draft, Marshall should also stick, as relievers are usually easy to keep as far as the draft goes. Marshall is a solid side arm pitcher that induces groundballs, always a plus. He also keeps walks down and his control looks good so far.
Alan Embree (LHP) – Embree can still be a solid lefty reliever, but he’s OLD.
Chad Guadin (RHP) – Solid right hander finishes the pen.
Starting LIneup
Jason Kendall (C) – A solid catcher who can hit well at the beginning of the lineup, Kendall has good contact skills, but with little power. He’s getting on in the age department and it’s thought that soon he will start declining to a large degree. That may explain why Oakland has expressed no desire to renegotiate his contract, even though he’s expressed a willingness to rework it to stay with the Athletics. Depending on where Oakland is in the standings and how Kurt Suzuki is doing in Triple A, Kendall could be trade bait come July.
Mark Ellis (2B) – Ellis is a solid defender, but the offense wasn’t there last season. As far as signs of a rebound go, there’s not many. Unfortunately, he’s the best guy to put here in the second spot, so Oakland needs to hope for the best.
Eric Chavez (3B) – Chavez is declining faster than people thought he would. Though he’s still a great glove to have at third, and he still is pretty productive, Chavez is losing power, and has been for the past three years. Injuries are also taking their toll, costing him playing time and costing Oakland his bat in the lineup. Chavez needs to stay healthy this season, as this Oakland club has little room for error.
Mike Piazza (DH) – Piazza finally moves to the DH position, a move he should have done last year had he not been so stubborn to squeeze one last year behind the bag. Piazza showed he had enough left in him to be a more than capable one, and the move should prolong his career. He’s a good fit right here in the third spot, but he shouldn’t catch unless it’s an emergency.
Nick Swisher (LF) – Swisher can mash the ball, as he showed everyone last season, and is a versatile defender in that he can play the outfield corners, plus first base. The only problem I have with him is that he strikes out a lot and seems to display almost no plate discipline. If I may be so bold, spending more time in the change and less time on those elaborate handshakes might help.
Dan Johnson (1B) – People forget that Johnson had a solid 2005 season as a DH/1B man. However, a poor start to 2006 resulted in a demotion, where he tore up Triple A. Now, Johnson is looking for a chance to regain his old roster spot and give Oakland another power bat. He’s got little room for error. If Johnson falters and Swisher is moved back to first base, it’s likely that Johnson’s career in Oakland is over, as he’s out of options and would have to pass through waivers. A club seeking a possible upgrade at first, possibly Florida or Cincinnati, would take a flier on him.
Milton Bradley (RF) – When healthy, Bradley has the tools to be a middle of the order bat, as he’s got good contact ability plus power. However, he hasn’t been able to do so, meaning that Oakland is hoping that this psycho will stay healthy in order for the offense to stay alive.
Mark Kotsay (CF) – Kotsay is a solid defender, and his bat is okay enough where he won’t hurt you at the bottom of the order. Really, that’s the best thing you can say about him. He’s a solid player that won’t hurt you.
Bobby Crosby (SS) – Crosby was once supposed to be the next big thing when he won the AL Rookie Of The Year. A couple of years later and he’s having to win back his job from Marco Scutaro. He’ll be in the lineup, but continued struggles will have him back on the pine.
Bench
Ryan Goleski (OF) – Drafted out of the Indians’ system by Tampa in the Rule V Draft, Goleski was traded for by Oakland. Goleski had the best stats out of the draft pool. He’s got great power in his bat and has a strong arm, making him a natural fit for right field. He’ll likely stay with Oakland, who needs some power production from an otherwise lackluster lineup, though it should be noted that Goleski has some injury issues to deal with, making him a potential DH candidate. Depending on how well he recovers from his injury, Goleski could get a shot as a starter if Dan Johnson fails badly and Swisher is switched back to first.
Shannon Stewart (OF) – Oakland hopes that Stewart can capably fill the role that Jay Payton did last season.
Marco Scutaro (INF) – Scutaro is able to provide tolerable offense, but he’s mostly known for his defensive capability, as he’s able to play a nifty shortstop and second base.
Adam Melhuse (C) – Melhuse is a capable defender who can play first base as well.
Bobby Kielty (OF) – Fourth outfielder can play the entire outfield while providing a bit of pop with his bat.
Down On The Farm…
Oakland is much like their fellow division mates, the Texas Rangers, in that the talent is either major league ready or several years away, with a two year gap between the existing talent and top prospects down in the lower levels. Unlike Texas, most of Oakland’s strength is position players.
Lenny DiNardo (LHP) – Claimed off waivers from the Red Sox, the A’s score another victory on the waiver wire period. Boston shouldn’t have designated him for assignment, as there were several other players on the 40 man roster that were more expendable. While DiNardo’s first season was ugly, he can be a solid swingman, much like former Athletic Kirk Saarloos, and he has the great little ability to induce ground balls. If he doesn’t make the team in spring training, he’ll be called up at some point this season.
Daric Barton (1B) – Barton, one of Oakland’s top prospects, had an off year last year. In his defense, he was only 20, far above the normal age in Triple A., plus a freak accident that resulted in breaking his elbow, costing him the rest of the year. Oakland still has high hopes for the converted catcher, who has a good power bat and a skill set that reminds people of John Olerud. His only real major flaw is his lack o####love, making his future in the majors that of a DH. He’s going to spend another season in Triple A, while Mike Piazza keeps his spot warm in Oakland.
Travis Buck (RF) – Buck could challenge for a job sometime in the next year or so, but he’s still got some kinks to work out. Buck hits for average and has some pop. Scouts love his work ethic and his attitude, but he’s got a weak arm and isn’t the fastest guy out there, which rules him out as far as centerfield is concerned. Still, the A’s like him a lot and will give him the year to develop and hope he can develop some more power in the future.
Kurt Suzuki (C) – Suzuki s a solid catcher with a strong arm, able to nail almost half of those who tried to steal on him. He still needs a little polish, but he’s capable enough that he could start now for Oakland. His bat is pretty good, leading for high contact numbers and he’s able to work the count for walks, which Billy Beane loves. He projects to be a Paul Lo Duca type and will replace Jason Kendall as the starter once Kendall’s contract runs out at the end of this year.
Marcus McBeth (RHP) – A converted outfielder prospect, McBeth has really turned it on as a reliever, storming through the system until he hit a brick wall at Triple A. McBeth has a mid-90’s fastball and a plus changeup that is his best pitch, plus a slider is hit or miss. Long term, he’s a setup man, as he doesn’t have the necessary stuff to be a closer, but he should do well in front of Huston Street in the future.
Jason Windsor (RHP) – Windsor’s trademark is his great command, as his stuff is average at best, Windsor projects to be much like Kirk Saarloos, a innings eater that can keep you in games.
Kevin Melillo (2B) – Melillo is a solid offensive performer with some power that is an average second baseman at best, a Jeff Kent lite (half the calories, half the power, still the same defense.) He could get some playing time in the future, provided that he continues his promising 2006 performance into Triple A this season.
In Conclusion…
There are way too many question marks about the Athletics this season. I don’t believe that the pitching staff is as good as it once was, though Haren should be sensational this year. With the A’s listening to offers for several of their other players, it’s possible that this team could continue to change as time passes. All in all, this is a team on the decline, at least until some of their youngsters are ready to take the helm. And there’s been too much turnover, with the losses of Zito and Thomas, for the A’s to be able to overcome in one season. I don’t think this team is going anywhere, unless things fall together for them in a perfect storm of sorts.
Final Standing: Third place in the American League West.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.
