Boston Red Sox – Prospects Report

One of the things that Theo Epstein has always emphasized is the need to have a healthy farm system.  Seeing that he had a natural advantage over much of the rest of baseball thanks to Boston’s financial clout giving him the ability to pay above slot for several impact arms, as well as the willingness to take a chance on talent that falls due to character concerns.  As a result, what Boston has developed is a solid system filled with young, impact talent that could help extend the winning or provide the Red Sox with valuable trade chips.  That was seen down the stretch with contributions from Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, along with the heroics of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, all farm raised Red Sox.  However, in terms of performance, it was also a hard year for some Sox prospects, who took their lumps this year, but overall, a lot of their prospects have done well for themselves.  So, while the overall results may not agree with what some of you may regard, the skill is there for some dominance.

Red Sox Top 15

1 – Clay Buchholz (RHP)

• DOB: 8/14/84
• Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Angelina (Texas) JUCO
• 2008 Club:  Boston Red Sox (MLB)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  One of the two "Killer B's" duo for the Red Sox, Buchholz is the top prospect in the Red Sox's farm system and went through the season last year with flying colors, the highlights beng when he outdueled Roger Clemens in a rehab start and when he spun a no-hitter against the Orioles.  Even with Curt Schilling back, there's really not a whole lot blocking Buchholz from Boston.
• The Good:  Buchholz has some of the nastiest stuff in the entire minor leagues.  His fastball regularly clocks in the low to mid 90's, but he accompanies the impressive heater with a pair of plus offerings in his curveball and changeup.  He also throws a two seam fastball that has late life as well.  His command and control are outstanding and his delivery brings up no problems.
• The Bad:  Some would like to see him gain weight to build a bit more stamina.  The only real criticism I’ve heard is from Ken Rosenthal, who reported in a column that Buchholz’s fastball has little movement, similar to Josh Beckett, which could result in a possible tendency to give up the long ball.  Kevin Goldstein has mentioned that Buchholz doesn’t use his fastball enough as well.  But really, I’m just nitpicking.
• Projection:  Low.  Buchholz is possibly the best prospect in baseball, if not the best pitching prospect, and likely will be knocking on the door of the big club, much as Phil Hughes did with New York.
• What He Can Be:  A Big League Ace
• 2008 Course Of Action:  There isn't much blocking Buchholz from Boston, but should he not make the team, he'll be waiting for someone to falter.

2 – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)

• DOB: 9/11/83
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Oregon State
• 2008 Club:  Boston Red Sox (MLB)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/185
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  After a solid college career, Ellsbury signed with the Red Sox, who saw him to be the eventual successor to Johnny Damon in centerfield.  Ellsbury has done nothing but hit since then and after making a impression late in the season, he wound up taking over for Coco Crisp in the middle of the playoffs and got national fame for being the guy who swiped the base that won America a free taco, whoot!
• The Good: Ellsbury is the prototypical leadoff centerfielder.  He’s got excellent bat speed and great plate discipline.  He’s got a good eye for pitches and is a solid runner on the bases.  Defensively, he’s got outstanding range and fielding instincts. 
• The Bad:  Ellsbury won’t hit for a lot of power and he’s got a below average arm for center.  Also, while he does draw walks, he doesn’t have the amount of walks that a leadoff hitter usually has.  Hence, there are many that feel that in order for Ellsbury to succeed as a leadoff man, he’s going to have to hit .300 constantly to makeup for the lack of power.
• Projection: Low.  Ellsbury is ready for the job now.  However, Ellsbury doesn’t rank in the high ceilings of talent that some other centerfield prospects (Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce to name a few), so he really is what he is, a safe prospect, a solid big leaguer, but in no ways a superstar.
• What He Can Be: An every day centerfielder that makes a couple of All Star Teams.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  After his monster postseason, it’s going to be hard for the Sox not to have Ellsbury as their opening day centerfielder.  Expect them to shop Coco Crisp heavily. 

3 – Justin Masterson (RHP)

• DOB: 3/22/85
• Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, San Diego State
• 2008 Club:  Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-6/250
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: Masterson was a little-known quantity before his dominated 2005 Cape Cod League.  Since then, he’s been rather solid for the Red Sox and one of the few prospects that hasn’t gotten the #### beat out of him on a regular basis.  Since being acquired, the Red Sox have moved him into a starter, where they have hope that he can be similar to former Red Sox Derek Lowe.
• The Good:  Masterson is has a workhorse’s body and good size.  His huge build helps give his sinking fastball some extra sink, giving it hellacious movement, inducing lots of groundouts and usually clocking in at around 90-92 mph, going as high as 94..  He compliments it with a tight slider.  He rarely yields the long ball and has solid mechanics and control. 
• The Bad:  Masterson is a groundball demon, but isn’t going to strike anyone out.  His changeup is inconsistent, but the most troublesome problem with him is that in the rotation, he loses his stuff over extending innings, with the sinker falling to the high 90’s and his slider losing some of it’s sharpness.  As a result, many feel he may be better off as a long reliever.
• Projection:  Average.  Though still raw, Masterson is coming along well and has moved farther along than expected.  For the moment, Boston is intent on keeping him in the rotation for now.
• What He Can Be:  A rotation workhorse.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Masterson has developed a little quicker than expected, and will likely being the season at Pawtuckett.  I really don’t see him getting a call late in the season, except maybe in September.

4 – Michael Bowden (RHP)

• DOB: 9/9/86
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Illinois High School
• 2008 Club:  Portland Sea Dogs (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/215
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Bowden is the other member of Boston's "Killer B's" pitching prospect set.  While he's not nearly as good as Buccholz, Bowden figures to be a solid contributor once he gets to the majors.  He dominated the California league last season, something that is hard to do, but may have been promoted a little too soon after he had trouble in Double A.
• The Good:  Bowden is a good-looking prospect.  He's got a fastball that sits in the 89-92 range and his curveball is a plus offering.  He's got a big frame and maintain his velocity deep into outings.  He's also got outstanding command and control.
• The Bad:  Bowden needs to improve his changeup.  Many also feel his delivery is too complex.  He’s also a little flyball friendly.
• Projection:  Average.  Depending on his changeup, Bowden could rise fast or stay where he's at, but it's not as if he's losing development time by staying in the minors for a couple of years. 
• What He Can Be:  A Middle Of The Rotation Starter.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Bowden isn't as polished as Buchholz, so the Red Sox are taking it slower with him.  Expect him to stay in Double A unless he forces Boston to promote him to Pawtucket.

5 – Jed Lowrie (SS)

• DOB: 4/17/84
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Stanford
• 2008 Club:  Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/185
• Bats/Throws: S/R
• The Skinny: Lowrie had a tremendous career at Stanford, but struggles during wood bat showcases as an amateur put the fear of god in scouts and the result was that he dropped to the Red Sox.  Lowrie has since enjoyed a breakout season in the high minors last year and should be ready to contribute to a big league club someday soon.
• The Good:  A solid athlete, Lowrie’s trademark was the fact that he had some solid plate discipline and it’s something that’s stayed with him as a pro.  He hits equally well from both sides of the plate.   He also hits for a little power and should contribute something to a major league club lineup near the back end of the order.
• The Bad:  Lowrie isn’t much of a burner, though he could be a 15-15 player as a second baseman.  More concerning is that he’s lacking somewhat defensively.  His arm is only average as is his accuracy, leading to the possibility that he may have to slide over to second base in the future.  His power has also mysteriously disappeared since he signed. He has nothing close to Lillibridge’s speed though, and while stolen bases may be overrated, defense isn’t, and Lowrie is still a bit short there, lacking the first-step quickness needed to project as a player with enough range to stay on the left side of the infield.
• Projection:  Low.  Lowrie’s pretty well developed, though the disappearance of his power is a concern. He looks like more of an offensive second baseman at this point, but the Red Sox will keep him at shortstop for now as Dustin Pedroia has second base locked up for what looks like a long time.
• What He Can Be:  A solid second baseman.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  The fact that Lowrie was shown off during the Arizona Fall League was likely intentional, as the Red Sox are currently set at second and shortstop with Pedroia and Lugo.  So, the Red Sox are hoping that Lowrie will invite some takers and could be flipped for something useful or hope that Lugo continues to build up trade value and they can flip him for Lowrie. 

6 – Jason Place (CF)

• DOB: 5/8/88
• Drafted: 1st round, 2006, South Carolina HS
• 2008 Club: Greenville Drive (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/205
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Place is another example of a high risk, high reward player who drew several comparisons to Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur early on in his high school career.  Place had an impressive short season debut, but his promotion to Low A revealed that he’s still really raw as a player. 
• The Good:  Place has a lot of thunder in his bat and he can put on a show at batting practice or during a game.  He’s got good speed and uses it well, making him a potential 20 steal guy in the majors.  Defensively, Place uses his speed to cover a lot of ground and flashing some solid leather in the outfield.  He’s got a cannon of an arm as well, an edge that he has over Jacoby Ellsbury, though it’s likely that Place will eventually shift to an outfield corner, as his bat fits better in that position.
• The Bad:  Place’s swing is long and despite the fact that the Red Sox have tried to get him to cut down on the strikeouts, chances are he’ll always strike out a lot.  There is a concern as to how Place will adjust to advanced pitchers as he continues to advance.
• Projection:  Very high.  Place’s struggles haven’t hurt his stock any; you have to keep in mind he’s still really young.
• What He Can Be:  An All Star Right Fielder
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Place will likely repeat at Greenville, where the Red Sox hope that his exposure to full season ball wil help him get back on track. 

7 – Ryan Kalish (CF)

• DOB: 10/23/81
• Drafted: 9th Round, 2006, New Jersey High School
• 2008 Club:  Lowell Spinners (SS)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/205
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Another late round pick that fell because of money constraints, Kalish was regarded to be an excellent athlete with a lot of upside that needed to translate his tools into talent.  After holding him back in extended this year, Kalish performed better than expected and was beginning to hit for power and average, while becoming a terror on the basepaths, before a broken hamate bone ended his season.
• The Good:  An excellent athlete with tools galore, Kalish has begun to translate them into performance.  With solid power potential, excellent speed, a good approach to the plate, as well as solid defense, Kalish has a bright future ahead of him.  Some feel he’s a potential leadoff hitter in the future. 
• The Bad:  He’s still really raw, especially on defense, making some wonder if he’s a right fielder in the future.  He also has trouble against lefties and he’s very much a Pedro Serrano type of guy (bat afraid of curve.) 
• Projection:  Very High.  Kalish has loads of potential, but the gap from what he can be and what he is now is just enormous.
• What He Can Be:  An impact centerfielder
• 2008 Course Of Action:  I have Kalish repeating at Lowell, though Boston may feel his performance merits a promotion.  I say, let’s see what he can do over a season and if he continues to hit like he did, promote him.

8 – Lars Anderson (1B)

• DOB: 9/25/87
• Drafted: 18th Round, 2006, California High School
• 2008 Club:  Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/210
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Regarded by many to be a first round talent, Anderson scared off many people because of his bonus demands and scouts were divided on him otherwise.  The Red Sox decided to give him a shot in the 18th, playing him nearly $900,000 and thus far, he’s been raking ever since.
• The Good: A large, powerful slugger with good athleticism, Anderson’s projectable frame gives him one of the highest power ceilings in the system.  His swing is extremely smooth and he displays great hitter's frame and excellent pitch recognition.
• The Bad:  Anderson is only an average first baseman and may be better off as a DH.  He also strikes out a ton.  He’s also a bit of an afternoon delight (power in BP, not as much during the games.)
• Projection:  High.  In spite of his strikeout totals and his defense, he still has a lot of upside and has a lot more to grow. 
• What He Can Be:  A middle of the order first baseman who gets the David Ortiz treatment
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Anderson will likely return to Lancaster, where he should put up some obscene numbers in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the minors.

9 – Nick Hagadone (LHP)

• DOB: 1/01/86
• Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, University Of Washington
• 2008 Club:  Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-5/230
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  After spending last year starting behind Tim Lincecum, Hagadone became Washington's Friday night starter to begin the year. He was moved to the bullpen after two starts because of team need and was outstanding for the Huskies, showing the ability to save games and pitch multiple innings.  Boston found themselves without a first rounder this year and selected Hagaone, who has made the selection look smart. 
• The Good:  A big left who is slowly being stretched out again as a starter, Hagadone has a fastball that sits in the low 90’s and tops out at 95 with good movement through the zone.  He also has a hard slider that is a plus pitch, giving him an effective two pitch combo.  He’s also working on a promising changeup and a splitter.  Boston loves his work ethic and his bulldog demeanor on the mound.  All in all, he’s got a good package of tools.
• The Bad:  There are some concerns that he may not be able to maintain his stuff over six or seven innings.  Plus, while the changeup is promising, it’s still a ways off.  There are also concerns about his delivery as well.
• Projection:  Average.  He could have a chance at an effective two-pitch mix, but worst-case scenario, he’d be an excellent setup man or closer with his stuff.
• What He Can Be:  A middle of the rotation horse or a setup man with closer ambitions.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  With his first year in the books, Hagadone will be sent to full season ball to get his feet under him.  Unfortunately, that likely means an assignment to Lancaster, one of the worst hitters parks in the nation that has already claimed one Red Sox prospect (see Bard, Daniel).  There’s also the possibility that he could be assigned to Greenville.  I don’t know, we’ll see.

10 – Oscar Tejeda (SS)

• DOB: 12/12/89
• Signed:  2006, Dominican Republic
• 2008 Club:  Greenville Drive (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/177
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  The other of the Red Sox’s two big name International Signings, Tejeda has performed just as well, if not better than fellow bonus baby Engel Beltre, since traded to the Rangers.  Tejeda hit well in for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox and the Lowell Spinners and overall, his performance is remarkable considering how old he is.
• The Good:  Though the power isn't there quite yet, it should gradually emerge in time.  He’s got good bat speed, well, speed in general, and has excellent range, good hands, and a strong arm.
• The Bad:  He’s still young, and still has a long way to go in terms of development.  And, as I’ve said, he’s got power potential, and it’s not here yet.  He’s also prone to errors, though that’s mostly because he plays with a flashy, undisciplined style.
• Projection:  Super High.  Tejeda is definitely a high class talent and should develop nicely nto a potential superstar if he keeps this up.  However, what he can be is a long way off from what he is now.
• What He Can Be:  An Above Average Shortstop, Occasional All-Star.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  With Tejeda holding his own against advanced competition, Tejeda will likely head up to full season ball, which should tell us more about him than what we’ve learned in his short-season stints.

11 – Josh Reddick (CF/RF)

• DOB: 2/19/87
• Drafted: 17th Round, 2006, Middle Georgia College
• 2008 Club:  Lowell Spinners (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/180
• Bats/Throws: L/R
• The Skinny: Yet another Red Sox bonus baby, Reddick began the year in Extended spring training before joining Greenville for 94 games, hitting .306/.352/.531 wit 18 homers and 72 RBI’s. 
• The Good: Reddick is a solid hitting prospect, with good hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and raw power allowing him to be able to hit at any level given time.  He’s an excellent athlete that has good speed, a solid arm and is a decent defender. 
• The Bad: Reddick can be overaggressive at the plate and will be taken advantage of as he rises, likely resulting in increased strikeout totals.  He also is more suited to right field than center, as his range is fringy at best in center.
• Projection:  Average.  Reddick is developing on schedule, but needs to make some refinements in his plate discipline in order for him to increase his value in the lineup.  He’ll likely always strikeout a lot, but if he can increase his walk totals and hit for a tolerable average, he should be good.
• What He Can Be: An good corner outfielder.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Reddick was a big surprise and should put up some solid numbers in Lancaster.  However, people are still going to dismiss Reddick’s performance as that of a hitter taking advantage of a hitters park, so it’s likely that there won’t be any reduction of his critics criticisms until he reaches Portland, likely in August. 

12 – Kris Johnson (LHP)

• DOB: 10/14/84
• Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Wichita State
• 2008 Club: Portland Sea Dogs (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/170
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny: Draft eligible as a sophomore, Johnson was returned for his Junior Year after having to recover from Tommy John surgery, but returned quickly and finished strongly.  Unfortunately, he was them sent to the California League last year and was hammered, though in his defense, Lancaster is a hard park to pitch in.
• The Good: Johnson throws a 89-92 mph sinking fastball and compliments it with a solid curveball.  He also has a very good changeup as well.  His delivery is smooth and he keeps his head on the mound.
• The Bad: Command and control are still off, a typical symptom of TJ Survivors.  He's also inconsistent and there have been questions just to how good he'll be.
• Projection: Average.  Johnson has proven that he can at least last for clear to 150 innings or so, but he needs to gain some consistency on the mound.
• What He Can Be: A Number 4 Starter.
• 2008 Course Of Action: I don't think that Johnson or the Red Sox have any desire to send him back to Lowell, so it's likely to Portland for him.

13 – Brandon Moss (RF)

• DOB:  9/16/83
• Drafted: 8th Round, 2002, Georgia High School
• 2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/205
• Bats/Throws: L/R
• The Skinny:  Three years ago, Moss first became a blip on the prospect scene after he destroyed the Sally League and was named league MVP.  After that, Moss faded a bit after he posted a pair of subpar seasons over in Double A Portland.  Since then, Moss has managed to boost his stock back to where he can be considered a prospect again.
• The Good: Moss, an excellent athlete, has very solid power in his swing and could be a 20-30 home run threat once he finishes developing.  He’s got a solid swing and he is able to hit to all fields.  He’s got a cannon of an arm, which works well in right field and has decent speed as well.  Overall, he’s got a decent set of tools.
• The Bad:  Moss’ range is limited, meaning that he’s going to have to play a corner.  Defensively, Moss is only an average defender in right and will need to greatly improve it if he wants to stay there.  Finally, Moss is impatient at the plate, as judged by his almost 2 to 1 ratio of strikeouts to walks.  While many feel that he can maintain a decent average, I think he’ll average about .275 to .280.  Not bad, but not great either.
• Projection:  Low.  Moss should be ready to contribute to a big league squad by June or so.
• What He Can Be:  An average right fielder that hits for power.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  It’s going to be impossible for Moss to find a job in the Red Sox outfield.  He’ll be a traded sometime this fall, making it likely we could see him again.

14 – Daniel Bard (RHP)

• DOB: 6/25/85
• Drafted:  1st Round, 2006, University of North Carolina
• 2008 Club:  Lancaster Jethawks (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/200
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Bard came into last year's draft with one of the best arms in the draft, but a lack of consistency as far as his performance, plus the salary demands of teammate Andrew Miller resulted in Bard falling until the Red Sox took him toward the end of the first round.  He signed too late to make a pro-debut last year and nearly returned to North Carolina for his senior season before a deal was struck late.  Since then, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, with Bard getting destroyed in A Ball and having to deal with arm and elbow issues as well.
• The Good:  Bard's got a live arm, one of the best in the draft, and that's even above higher drafted players such as Luke Hochevar and Tim Lincecum.  He's got an easy delivery and throws his plus fastball in the mid 90's, though he can touch 98 and he's got good movement on it.  His slider is also a plus pitch, sitting in the mid to upper 80's.  His circle change and his curveball are decent pitches as well.
• The Bad:  Bard has always been inconsistent since his days in North Carolina.  His command and control are below what he should have as a college pitcher.  Bard's other weapons, though decent, are far from extraordinary, and many people are wondering if Bard's future may be as a reliever, though his fastball and slider have closer potential.  Combined with all of the arm ailments, and he’s going to be trouble.
• Projection: Average.  Bard needs a lot of development time and work for him to have success.  His college numbers are quite average, and while the arm is valuable, it’s going to take some time.  I think long term, you’ll see Bard get moved into the pen.
• What He Can Be:  A Power Closer, A La K-Rod
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Bard will likely return to the California League after some work in extended Spring Training.  The Red Sox are likely going to hope that Bard is able to regroup from his earlier pounding and force a promotion to Double A, like Bowden did.

15 – George Kottaras (C)

• DOB: 5/10/83
• Drafted: 20th round, 2002, Connors State Junior College (Draft And Follow – Padres)
• 2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/190
• Bats/Throws: L/R
• The Skinny:  Acquired from San Diego for David Wells, Kottaras was one of the few prospects the Padres had that was really any good.  However, Kottaras struggled for much of his time in Boston, but came to life in the second half of last season when he became a monster. 
• The Good: Kottaras is an offensive minded catcher, though many feel that his flaws are correctable.  A natural hitter with good plate discipline, Kottaras has some power that could potentially make him a 20 homer threat.  He’s got a decent arm and has experience catching a knuckleballer.
• The Bad:  Kottaras struggles against lefties last season, but struggled against right handers this season.  Odd.  Despite his arm, he has trouble throwing out base stealers thanks to a slow release.  
• Projection:  Low.  The Red Sox are hoping that Kottaras’ late second half surge is a sign of him turning the corner, but beyond that, there’s not much room to grow left for him.
• What He Can Be:  A starting catcher
• 2008 Course Of Action:  The Red Sox will likely return Kottaras to Triple A, where they hope he can continue his hot hitting ways, but their recent interest in the Rangers’ catching backlog doesn’t speak much in terms of their confidence.

Not Ranked, But May Be Seen In Big Leagues This Year

Chris Carter (1B/LF)

• DOB: 9/16/82
• Drafted: 17th Round, 2004, Stanford (Diamondbacks)
• 2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 5-11/220
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  A late round pick, Carter bashed his way through the minor leagues, setting impressive power totals everywhere he’s gone.  Unfortunately for him, he had almost no shot of cracking Arizona’s roster, with his positions being occupied by established veterans.  However, Carter had his admirers and was included in the three-way trade that netted the Nationals Wily Mo Pena.
• The Good:  Power is Carter’s best, and really only tool, though he does have decent plate discipline.
• The Bad:  Carter is regarded to be an abysmal defender in left and bad at first base.  He’s probably best suited to be a DH, though with some work in Spring Training, it’s possible that he could be reasonably okay at first if stuck there. 
• Projection:  Low.  Carter was regarded by many to be simply a minor league slugger with no real shot at making an impact on the roster, but Boston has had some scouting coups in the past and are likely banking on Carter to be their regular first baseman next year, allowing Youkilis to move back to third.
• What He Can Be:  A regular first baseman
• 2008 Course Of Action:  It really all depends on what the Red Sox decide to do with Youkilis.  If they decide to move him to third, Carter will likely enter the season as the everyday first baseman.  If they decide to bring back Lowell or chase down Alex Rodriguez, Carter gets screwed over again.

And for Giggles…

Craig Hansen (RHP)

• DOB: 11/15/83
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, St. John's University
• 2008 Club: Pawtucket Red Sox (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-6/210
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  When the Red Sox drafted Hansen, they expected him to be their closer of the future.  Obviously, that forecast has changed, as Papelbon will be the closer while Hansen tries to regain some of his former luster, which he has thanks to a excellent finish to the season.
• The Good:  Despite his stock falling hard, Hansen still has to solid pitches in a fastball that clocks in the mid 90’s and tops out at 98.  His slider has decent movement and gets up to 85.
• The Bad:  The slider is not the plus pitch that it was when Hansen was back at St. John’s.  Part of the reason is the ball.  In the NCAA, the stitches on the ball are higher than in the majors, resulting in some loss of movement.  The bigger problem has been command and confidence, as Hansen tends to get wild and got hammered quite a bit, though oddly enough, he was a lot better on the road than he was at Fenway.
• Projection:  Fair.  I’m not , but I’m really not sure what exactly can be done to fix Hansen, as he was rushed a little bit.
• What He Can Be:  Maybe A Closer, More Likely A Setup Man, Looking Like Neither Will Be With Boston
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Hansen will try to latch on with the Red Sox out of spring training, but long term I think he’s a goner.  Look for him to get moved at the deadline in a deal for a need or for prospects that are a lot farther off.

Final Thoughts

Though the Farm System has lost some talent in recent years, it’s still very much loaded.  Buchholz, Bowden, Ellsbury, and Tejeda are all talents any team would love to have in their respective systems and there are enough B class prospects that could carve out decent major league careers with the Red Sox or with other teams if they are dealt.  Overall, Boston’s system is a testament to the philosophy that if you throw enough money at high ceiling talents, it’ll pay off in the long run.

Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to:  Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)

The problems with rushing draft picks, Southside Eckstein, Pods Back On The Market, and the Price On Dontrelle Willis.

The Problems With Rushing Draft Picks

One of the things that I’m noticing in recent years is the rushing of draft picks.

Usually, this is done with relievers, who are viewed to be almost ready made, a practice that has gone back since the Nationals brought up Chad Cordero months after being drafted.  However, this practice is taking it's toll on the prospects, mostly because teams feel that these college kids should be ready to start immediately.

This has recently been found out the hard way by the Detroit Tigers, who are now paying the price of rushing Andrew Miller, who has been awful his last few starts.  The warning signs were there with Miller, who has walked more batters than he struck out and was regarded to be still raw coming out of college.

A better example would be Craig Hansen and Joey Devine, two players selected in the 2005 draft that were called up to the Majors quickly.  Too quickly.

Devine was destroyed in limited time with the Braves and only recently has begun to show signs of coming out of his shellacking.  Hansen isn't as fortunate and is in danger of possibly being dealt or cut by the Red Sox, who made the mistake of calling him up too soon.

Often times Clubs will be a bit overdependant on their system to provide them with help in their hours of need, oftentimes too soon for the kids to do much good.

And often times, those kids may never recover.

So, let it be a lesson, even a cautionary tale, of why sometimes you might need to look elsewhere rather than within, less you render your own internal asset useless for the rest of the future.

Eckstein Southside?  Sounds Like A Disaster.

According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, shortstop David Eckstein has become the top off-season target of the White Sox, who are now tired of Juan Uribe’s lack of production (is it possible to be out hit by Adam Kennedy?  It’s starting to look like it.) 

I’m not sure if that’s a great idea, even if the shortstop market is looking dismal.  Eckstein will be 33 heading into next season, and he’s begun to break down, with more and more time on the DL due to injuries.  Big money would be a mistake, especially when you consider that Eckstein lacks lower and as a leadoff man is very depended on slapping the ball and hoping his speed will let him beat it out.  That’s not going to last much longer, especially as he begins to lose speed next year.

Another nugget to consider is that Eckstein may be classified as a Type A Free Agent, and would warrent the White Sox surrendering their Second Round Pick, something that the Whtie Sox may give pause to, especially as they begin what is likely a rebuilding process that will require all the high picks it needs.

The White Sox, really, should begin to look around at the various farm systems in the league (Kenny Williams has scouted several systems and knows the prospects he wants from each one religiously) to see if there is any way to net a shortstop prospect that is near ready, but blocked.  A young player would be much better as it would give the White Sox payroll flexability and the potential to groom another face of the franchise around them.

Pods Back On The Market

Scott Podsednik is going to be available soon.

The White Sox have begun playing Josh Fields in left field.  This likely means that

Joe Crede will be brought back for his final season.

Podsednik is out of a job, as the White Sox have fallen in love with Darin Erstad (big mistake) as their fourth outfielder.

Does Pods have any value?

Some, but not enough to start him.  He'd make a decent fourth outfielder on a team that has several established ones and he's got the speed to be a decent pinch runner.  With his stock down, his price will be cheap as well.

Pods has really had only one good year, but beyond that, he's prett y much useless as a starter.

And to think, I got the most hate mail over my view of Pods as a backup.

Heh.

The Price On Dontrelle

Dontrelle Willis has had a difficult season in Florida, and with his price increase coming in arbitration, followed by Miguel Cabera's impending raise, Willis could finally be out there for the taking.

The Marlins have kinda messed up this situation a bit, as Willis was at the peak of his value last off-season and would have netted a nice haul.  However, Willis has lost some of his luster and teams may be less willing to give up the farm for him.

However, there still will be a great deal of suitors, as Willis is a power pitching lefty on the right side of 30 and has a reputation for being a horse as well as an innings eater.  Someone will bite.

The Marlins have indicated that they want pitching and catching in return in exchange for Willis.  Is there a match?

Somewhat.

The Mariners have catching prospect Jeff Clement to offer up and potentially Wladmir Baltentin, a centerfielder, that they could offer back, but no real pitching of consequnce.

The Mets could offer up an outfield prospect and potenitlally Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey, but no real catching prospects exist in that organization.

The Rangers could offer back Gerald Laird, who has been displaced by Saltalamacchia, but the Marlins would demand Salty instead, along with top prospect Eric Hurley, a package that would scare off the Rangers.

The Yankees will likely be mentioned, but will only offer up end of the rotation starters such as Tyler Clippard and Jeff Marquez, while the Marlins would demand either Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain.

The Dodgers could be interested, but their only real prospect of value of Clayton Kershaw and he's untouchable.

Perhaps the Rockies and Diamondbacks, teams in need of starting pitching, could make an offer with some of their depth of positional prospects, but no pitching options are available to make a fit possible.

The Marlins are thus in a touchy spot.  They could let Willis leave after this year and reap the two comp draft picks, but if he's signed by a crappy team, all they'll get is a second rounder and a sandiwch pick.  If they trade him, they'll want to get what Willis was worth last season, and not what he's worth then.

So, it's going to be interesting to see how the Marlins operate this, to put it lightly, delicate situation when they've handled so many of their public relations issues with bazookas.

This is a disturbing new tidbit that has begun to make itself known.  I don’t know how much of it is fact, but from what I’ve dug up, it’s starting to look like there is some truth to it.

The Boras corporation employs several people, including different coaches, to evaluate his clients and to possibly see where they are at in this stage of their careers.

But what if the Boras Corporation is starting to insist on their own player development?

This is apparently the story with the signals that the Mets have begun to leak out that Mike Pelfrey is in fact very much available for a trade.  The reason is because Boras and his operation have told the Mets prospect that their own coaching, scouting, and development guys know better than that of the Mets’ organization.

Another player that has begun to wear out his welcome is Mark Teixeira, who according to Peter Gammons in a recent interview, with a Boston Radio Station, has moved away from the advice of Rangers Hitting Coach Rudy Jaramillo and is instead taking instruction from Boras’ group.  This may have been the source of the earlier blowup between Ron Washington and Teixeira, which was apparently over the subject of Teixeira’s hitting.

This is a problem that needs to be stopped, as Boras can’t suddenly inject himself into the player development process of a player.  Do you really mean to tell me that Scott Boras has better coaches on his payroll than Rick Peterson and Rudy Jaramillo, two of the best coaches in the business for pitching and hitting? 

Gammons doesn’t stop there.

He also says that the Boras Corporation may have ruined pitching prospects Craig Hansen and Luke Hochevar, a pair of first round picks, Hansen by changing his delivery as throwing mechanics and Hochevar by changing his arsenal.  Apparently, Hochevar no longer throws the four seam fastball and curveball that made him a potential first rounder, and have changed it to a two seam fastball and a slider, new pitches that Hochevar doesn’t have as much experience throwing.

Again, I have my disputes with Gammons and take a lot of what he says with a grain of salt.  But there’s a ton of stuff here that makes a lot of sense and Gammons, for his faults and bias’, is very well connected and probably wouldn’t be slinging this #### out on the public if it were true.  

This also isn’t just ESPN saying this.  Baseball Prospectus, one of the more objective baseball think factories on the web is also alleging this and broke the story about Pelfrey. 

In any case, this shouldn’t be happening.  As good as Boras can be, he doesn’t have better coaches on his staff than those in major league baseball.  Tinkering too much with a client risks destroying a clients career, something which you were entrusted to work and guide.  Doing this isn’t only irresponsible, it should be grounds from banishment for the game, as you are tampering with competitive balance.

Boras may have his heart in the right place, as he may be just trying to extend clients’ career.  However, what he is doing is wrong and he’s going to make the game worse for it if he continues.

Or maybe it’s simply just another liberty that Boras has taken on himself.  He already controls the players’ negotiations, career choices, and even the types of relationships that the player may have with the team.

This is wrong.

I know it.

Does he?