Since I've still getting emails about why certain farm systems weren't reviewed (you didn't review this system, you ignored this prospect, you suck you Yankee/Red Sox hater, etc), I figured, what the hell, let me just start a regular feature.
Introducing The Prospect Six Pack, where I'll pick six random prospects and post up the mini scouting reports, semi-inspired by Kevin Goldstein. Enjoy.
Prospect Six Pack
Carlos Gomez (CF) – Mets
DOB: 12/4/85
Signed: 2002, Dominican Republic
2008 Club: Birmingham Mets (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Gomez has been aggressively promoted by the Mets for quite some time, but when Lastings Milledge, Moises Alou and Shawn Green all got hurt around the same time, the Mets were forced to call up Gomez and put him into service. The result was predictable, as Gomez was undisciplined, raw and clearly not ready.
The Good: Part of the reason why Milledge was dealt was because the Mets feel that ultimately, Gomez will be better. He’s a great athlete with remarkable speed, a solid defender, and good power potential.
The Bad: As I said, Gomez was rushed and the result was poor plate disciplined, power potential that is undeveloped and some rawness in the field as well. The Mets need to have him in the minors, as he shouldn’t be on a major league bench.
Projection: Average. Gomez really had no business playing in the majors last year and the Mets gambled on him not getting his development stagnated by promoting him. That said, he could still be a quality prospect if the Mets don’t do anything stupid.
What He Can Be: An above average centerfielder with an exciting speed and power combination.
2008 Course Of Action: Gomez will likely be back in Double A, where regular playing time against appropriate competition should help him continue his development process. I’m hoping the Mets don’t pull a stunt like they did last year again.
Rick Porcello (RHP) – Tigers
DOB: 12/27/88
Drafted: 1st Round, 2007, New Jersey High School
2008 Club: West Michigan Whitecaps (Low A)
Height/Weight: 6-5/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Regarded to be the best prep pitcher since Josh Beckett, Porcello certainly looked it at times during his senior year at Seton Hall Prep and was reportedly considered by the Royals at two. However, what happened was that Porcello’s advisor, Scott Boras, demanded Beckett’s contract, which was a 4 year Major League Deal, plus a bonus adjusted for inflation. The result was that Porcello fell until the Tigers picked at 27, where they took the chance on him and gave him what Boras wanted, drawing the ire of Major League Baseball in return.
The Good: Porcello was described to be the best prep prospect in the class and has drawn Josh Beckett like comparisons. He throws a fastball that sits around 94-95 mph and hits 96, all with good movement on both his two and four seamer. He throws a curve in the low 70’s and a slider that sits at around 80. Finishing it all is his changeup, which is already a plus pitch and complements his curve well. All in all, that’s a hell of an arsenal, especially when you consider that most high school prospects only have two pitches when drafted.
The Bad: Porcello's command and control have been inconsistent. Many also wonder about his durability, as he hasn’t pitched as much because of the weather in the Northeast. The final flag is that because of his deal, Porcello has four years to develop and get to the Majors, whether he is ready or not.
Projection: Very High. Porcello could be the next Beckett, but he could also be god awful, as the contract is a contract that could stunt his development, especially if he struggles. So, he had better be what Boras has advertised. And, to be quite honest, I’m not sure that Porcello is much better than Jarrod Parker, whom the Diamondbacks took higher up and got for a less money than Porcello.
What He Can Be: A bonafide Ace.
2008 Course Of Action: Like it or not, the clock is ticking and Porcello will likely begin the season with the White Caps, where hopefully he’ll be ready for action.
Jay Bruce (CF) – Reds
DOB: 4/3/87
Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Texas High School
2008 Club: Louisville Bats (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Drafted by the Reds in the first round, Bruce has been compared by scouts to former major leaguer Larry Walker. Since coming into the system, Bruce has done nothing but hit for power and play some mean defense and is now on the fast path to the majors for the Reds. He’s already jumped from High A to Triple A and didn’t even stay long in Double A because he was so dominant.
The Good: Bruce has great tools all around the board. He’s got 30 home run potential and hits to all fields. Though he’s got only average speed, he’s a great base runner. He's got a strong arm and he has the range to play centerfield. He does have some issues hitting lefties, but he’s improved enough where he shouldn’t have many issues with them.
The Bad: His swing can get long, resulting in lots of strikeouts. And, while Bruce is average as a centerfielder now, it’s likely that he’ll eventually move to right field as his body fills out.
Projection: Average. Bruce has been translating his tools into performance for the past couple of seasons and he's moving faster than expected. He’s moved a lot faster than anyone could have anticipated. He’s also got the potential to get a lot better than he already is, a sobering thought.
What He Can Be: An All Star Quality Right Fielder, Like Larry Walker.
2008 Course Of Action: Josh Hamilton was traded to the Rangers to eventually open up a job for Bruce, should he win one in Spring Training. However, it’s more than likely that Bruce will start the season in the minors before being called up at midseason, depending on where the Reds are in the standings as well as when Ken Griffey Jr. makes his inevitable trip to the DL.
Colby Rasmus (CF) – Cardinals
DOB: 8/11/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Alabama High School
2008 Club: Memphis Redbirds (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Rasmus, the top prospect in the Cardinals system, enjoyed a breakout year in Double A and has rapidly developed faster than a lot of people may have thought possible, but it really shouldn’t be a surprise considering all the excellent prep outfield prospects drafted in 2005 (Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutcheon, just to name a few).
The Good: Rasmus is one of the most athletic players in the Cardinals system with loads of tools. He’s got a quick bat and solid power potential to make him a 25-homer threat in the majors. He’s got good pitch recognition and should draw a good amount of walks in the majors. He’s also a dynamic centerfield, with good range and a strong arm.
The Bad: Rasmus has some problems with lefties and he can be over aggressive, leading to strikeouts and being caught stealing.
Projection: Average. Rasmus is nearly ready for the show and he’ll only get better as time goes on. Given time, he should be all that and more than what Jim Edmonds was for the Cardinals. Long term, Rasmus gives the Cardinals another middle of the order bat to plug in behind Albert Pujols, which should help the big man’s chances to see some pitches.
What He Can Be: A star center fielder.
2008 Course Of Action: In spite of what the Cardinals are saying about Rasmus being in the mix for their starting centerfielder job, that’s a hell of a jump to go from Double A to the Majors. Rasmus is going to be starting for the Redbirds, where he’ll get some more seasoning, and could perhaps see some action with the Cardinals come August, as he’s not ready yet.
Will Middlebrooks (SS) – Red Sox
DOB: 9/9/88
Drafted: 5th Round, 2007, Texas High School
2008 Club: Lowell Spinners (Short Season)
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A Top baseball and football prospect (QB), Middlebrooks' two-sport status may have lead to his falling down to the 9th round of the draft. Boston, never a stranger to taking high ceiling talent in the lower rounds, pulled the trigger and signed him for almost a million dollars.
The Good: A fantastic athlete with potential on the field and on the mound, Middlebrooks has good power potential and makes good, solid contact with the bat. He’s got good speed and is an excellent baserunner as well. Middlebrooks also has a strong arm and exceptional hands defensively.
The Bad: Middlebrooks lacks range, making a move to third base all but inevitable. And while his speed is solid now, that could change as he continues to fill out and mature.
Projection: High. I like Middlebrooks and felt that Boston stolen him in the 5th round, which more than made up for their lack of a first rounder in 2007. While he didn’t make my top 15 of Sox Prospects, he could easily rise up that list, depending on his campaign.
What He Can Be: A power hitting third baseman in the mold of Troy Glaus.
2008 Course Of Action: I think Middlebrooks will be kept at shortstop for now and will be worked with in extended Spring Training until Lowell starts their season, after which, he’ll being the year as the Spinners’ starting shortstop.
Daniel Moskos (LHP) – Pirates
DOB: 4/28/86
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Clemson
2008 Club: Hickory Crawdads (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Moskos was one of the top left handed college talents in the country that’s money as a closer. However, there’s so much more to Moskos that just that. There is the potential for more if he gets drafted in the right organization. Because of the financial concerns that came with the Boras clients, the Pirates shied away from the mass of Boras arms available and instead took Moskos, who was a massive overdraft.
The Good: Moskos has good velocity, throwing in the low 90’s while working up as high as the mid 90’s as a closer. His fastball has great movement and he’s got a nice delivery. He compliments this fastball with a filthy slider. He’s also working on a changeup as a third pitch and many feel that he could be an excellent starter.
The Bad: The changeup is still a work in progress, so there’s no guarantee that he can get it up to a major league level pitch. Plus, at his size, with a max effort delivery, Moskos is probably best-suited for the bullpen long-term.
Projection: Low if he’s a closer. He could probably setup in September, similar to what Andrew Miller did. As a starter, I would say he’s going some average projection left.
What He Can Be: A dominant closer
2008 Course Of Action: Moskos has been told by the Pirates that he will remain as a reliever and he could very well enter the season as the Pirates' closer if they choose to go that route. It’s more likely, however, that he’ll begin the season in Hickory.
Hope you enjoyed it. If you want to see anyone in particular, leave a comment or send me a line at the email of FoxMail.
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Screwed
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
The Rangers have dealt him and Danny Ray Herrera right now to the Cincinatti Reds for Josh Hamilton, who I assume will likely be the starting centerfielder and likely is going to make Nelson Cruz expendable.
I'm kinda wishy washy on the deal.
One, Volquez battled back to prove to be a viable starting pitcher. I would have loved to have seen him get the chance here. After all, what else is there left to lose? Player development? A high draft pick? And what is the point of busting a nut trying to salvage Volquez only to deal him away? I don't get it.
Two, I'm not sure on Hamilton, even though he's a physical freak of nature and could be a star. But the injury issues (thanks to drug abuse, his immune system is kinda ####ked) as well as his drug issues. If he has a mentor, likely C.J. Wilson or Michael Young, he could be kept on the straight and narrow, but it's a concern.
If Volquez does well, the Rangers will look like fools unless Hamilton really does well, which isn't outside of the realm of possibility. However, this doesn't help much for the present, with the Rangers' best starting pitching options years away and Eric Hurley not ready.
We'll see what happens. Hopefully, A.J. the Pirate is ready to step in.
On a side note, this means that out of the once vaunted DVD trio (John Danks, Edinson Volquez, Thomas Diamond) only Diamond remains in the organization, with Danks in the White Sox system and Volquez now a Red.
Incredible. Anyhow, I'll miss Volquezo and his little Geri-Curl.
I need a drink...
Eddie Guardado Nearly A Ranger
Apparently, the Rangers are close to getting Eddie Guardado to come, though whether or not it's a major league deal or a minor league deal with a spring training invite has yet to be determined.
I'm okay with it, but only if he's not a closer option. C.J. Wilson should be the closer next year, as he's more than earned the job with his performance this year. Joaquin Benoit also deserves a shot if the Rangers determine Wilson is more valuable in relief than as a closer. Guardado should merely be seen as a potential lefty middle reliever that could help bridge the gap to Wilson, not be the end of the Bridge itself.
Pouring out some scotch right now...
Someone On The 40 Is Going Bu-Bye!!!
Hamilton's recent trade doesn't solve the problem of the Rangers' 40 Man Roster, which is actually at 41, due to Kazuo Fukumori's deal not being official yet.
Which means someone is getting dropped.
I alluded earlier to Nelson Cruz likely being DFA'd to make room for Hamilton, as that's too many outfielders in the mix, and should he pass through waivers, he'll likely be offered a minor league deal with a Spring Training Invite.
But could other people be going elsewhere?
As of right now, I've identified three people that could be at risk.
Bill White (LHP) - White doesn't have great stuff and probably wouldn't be at risk at being claimed. He's not anyone I would have protected anyway. If he is claimed, the odd's on favorite would be the Astros.
Jason Botts (LF/DH) - Botts has gotten his chance to prove he can hit and hasn't really run with it. This season is really his last shot to prove that he can be a major leaguer, otherwise he's done for.
Nelson Cruz (RF) - See above.
Of the three, Cruz is likely history and White is next in line. But Botts has very little leverage left and is running out of chances. I hope he's able to succeed because this time, there is no minor league safety net to bail him out.
Rangers Top 40 will be posted next week after Christmas.
Here's some of the names that the Rangers have been connected with so far:
Carlos Quentin (OF) - The Rangers did make a inquiry to see what it would take to acquire the potential hard hitting right fielder from the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was Eric Hurley. I'm not opposed to trading Hurley, but only if it's for a pitcher, such as Santana or Haren. I would even trade him if maybe Texas had other pitching prospects close to ready. Since they don't, onto the new stop.
Scott Rolen (3B) and Chris Duncan (1B/LF) - This was strictly a salary dump in exchange for Hank Blalock. Duncan I'm not sure about, as he's a big hacking slugger that would be a fit as a platoon DH or FIrst Baseman. Rolen is pretty much done. Sorry. I just can't.
Andy LaRoche (3B) - There are also talks that Texas is looking to trade Hank Blalock to the Dodgers for Andy LaRoche and change. However, it looks like the reports are that this was strictly smoke with no substance. That's a pity. I would have loved to have had LaRoche.
Coco Crisp (CF) - And back to Mr. Crisp. Word is that Boston asked for C.J. Wilson in return and are not interested in Gerald Laird. Ummmm, no. Wilson is the closer next year and is one of the few lefties available for the pen, with Murray heading to the rotation in Oklahoma next year, leaving only Rheinecker as the lone lefty aside for Wilson. Still, this offer is a lot better than what the Red Sox originally asked for, which was Hurley, Luis Mendoza, who actually was a Red Sox, and another player. TIme to find the next Ron Mahay...
Josh Hamilton (CF) – Hamilton is attractive in that he’s young and is a physical freak of nature. He’s got loads of talent and could be a fixture long term in Texas. The only real question, aside from the past substance abuse issues (not fair, but unfortunately, still valid) are what potential trade matches could be done, as judging from the two teams and their respective farm systems, it doesn’t look like a match can be made.
David DeJesus (CF) – This is still a valid rumor, especially if you consider the fact that the Royals are going hard after the batshit crazy outfielder we all know as Jose Guillen. If they sign him, they’ll have a outfield of Mark Teahen, Joey Gathright, whom the Royals love, and Guillen, leaving DeJesus out in the cold. The Rangers could make an offer of Joaquin Arias, Luis Mendoza, and either Doug Mathis or Michael Schlact in return for DeJesus and change.
Chris Shelton (1B) - Shelton was designated for assignment by the Tigers to make room for Kenny Rogers. Were I the Rangers, I actually would make a play for Shelton, who could at least be a platoon partner for Cat at first next year.
Raid The Pirates
Actually, there is a way for the Rangers to be able to fill several holes at once to help fill their needs.
The Pirates are looking to move RF Xavier Nady and LF Jason Bay in order to stock on prospects, as they seem to have realized that this current core of the team just isn’t working and are looking to make some deals.
Nady is a virtual lock to be traded, as the Pirates have shown no desire to pay him in arbitration and will look to either trade him or non-tender him. Jon Daniels discussed Bay with the Pirates earlier today and is in the mix to try and get him.
I’d try to make a deal for both, which would take care of left and right field and allowing them to use some sort of Marlon Byrd/David Murphy combo in center. It would also allow Texas to leave Frank Catalanotto at first base and would add a pair of decent bats in the middle. The best part is, neither of them blocks any of the Rangers’ prospects long term and potentially could allow the Rangers to reap some draft picks if they do well in Texas.
What would I hit the Pirates with for both guys? Well, it looks like the Pirates are looking for a catcher and a pitching prospect in exchange for Bay and are just looking to get something for Nady. So, here’s what I’d do:
First off, I’d offer them Laird, who is still three years away from free agency. That would be for Nady, as it is a trade of pieces that just don’t fit with their current clubs.
For Bay, since I have already offered a catcher, I would ask them if a trade for Joaquin The Dream would work, with another pitcher, possibly Michael Schlact or Armando Galarraga would work. If they elect for it, cool. If not, I’d offer some potential Rule 5 picks that may get selected from the Rangers, likely Tug Hulett a utility man, and Jesse Ingram, who had a bounceback season last year, but was blocked from getting onto the Rangers’ 40 this year.
So, if all things considered fall into place, I’d offer the following:
The Texas Rangers offer C Gerald Laird, RHP Armando Galaragga, SS Joaquin Arias and RHP Jesse Ingram for RF Xavier Nady and LF Jason Bay
I know it’s more quantity than quality right now, but it would kill some holes on the team and would allow them to try and trade Jack Wilson while trying to eat some of his salary. All in all, it’s a pretty fair deal.
Tomorrow, the San Diego Padres Farm System goes up, with the Seattle Mariners going up on Friday. Look for a Rangers Report GM Meetings Wrap Up On Thursday.
I'd stay the hell away from the Twins' free agents, especially since their market is going to shoot through the roof tomorrow, when agents can discuss dollars and cents.
Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva are looking to cash in, Hunter by reputation, Silva by scarcity, and both will be overpaid greatly and will likely be looked at in the same way we look at the Jason Giambi/Carl Pavano deals.
Hunter is coming off of a career year and will be picked up by a team making a splash and wanting Hunter's mix of attitude and charisma on their team.
But he's not an elite centerfielder anymore. He's never hit for a lot of power and he's not a run producer in the heart of the lineup. And worse, his defense is center is beginnng to degrade, thanks to the numerous injuries and surgeries he's had on his legs. Baseball Prospectus' PETCOA system has Hunter becoming a part time player by 2010. That's not a great idea for the amount of dollars Hunter is looking for.
As for Silva, he's a groundball pitcher that is young and entering a market that is lacking in decent pitching. He'll have takers needing a innings eating starter, such as the Mets, Tigers, Reds and Dodgers, just to name a few. But he's going to get Number Two starter money for a guy that's been a Number Three at best and a Number Four for his career.
Plus, to compound the reasons on Hunter, he's a Type A free agent and unless your pick is draft protected, he's going to cost you your Number One pick, not a wise idea unless you have a Type A on your team that won't be back, allowing you to recoup the pick.
Both guys are going to get ridiculously overpaid and both will likely put up decent numbers in the beginning of the deal. But in the long run, both are like to disappoint and will break someone's heart.
When I heard that Alex Rodriguez was going to opt out of his contract, I felt two ways about it.
The first was annoyance, wondering why couldn't he have waited the four more hours to announce it.
The second was elation, and joy that the poorly constructed deal was finally over, and that the Rangers were free of that albatross.
The Rodriguez deal is one of the biggest mistakes in the Rangers' tenure and the subsequent deal that sent him to New York is one of the bigger screwings the Rangers got.
Not only did the Rangers get shafted by having to pay off part of the contract, but they also got little in return, with a Arbitration Eligible Alfonso Soriano and only one Player To Be Named Later (which was even worse considering that John Hart passed up on Robinson Cano to get Joaquin Arias. How does that one look?)
With A-Rod's obligation finally over, the Rangers will now have $21 million to go and bid on a player that acutally plays for the #### team!
Time to call Aaron Rowand's agent...
Ohyo Victor Diaz-san!!
The Rangers have talked with some Japanese teams about outfielder Victor Diaz playing over there next year. This is significant for two reasons. One, it says that the Rangers’ aren’t completely confident in whether or not Diaz will make the roster, as I believe he used up his last option this past year, and two, that the Rangers have some interest in finding a place for him to play full time, as they still believe he can be a everyday player. What isn’t clear, however, is if the Rangers will retain control over Diaz if he does indeed go over to Japan. I’m not sure that they can, as I believe he would have to be sold to the Japanese leagues, subsequently relinquishing any control over him. I’ll have to research this some more when I got time.
The Return Of Gagne?!?
The former Rangers closer, Gagne was an out and out disaster in Boston and isn’t likely to return. He cost himself millions of dollars on the free agent market and is going to be looked at as damaged goods once again.
However, Gagne may have been hurt, could have been inconsistent due to his not being in the closer role, or maybe just wasn’t cut out for Boston. It’s happened before. However, Gagne is still fond of the Rangers and has said that he wouldn’t mind a return. If he could be had for roughly the same contract as last season, I wouldn’t hesitate on bringing him back.
Keeping An Eye On Adan Dunn
I've been keeping an eye on the Adam Dunn situation over in Cincinatti in hopes that the Reds will decline his options and the Rangers will try to swoop in and get a hold of him.
Dunn would be a solid addition and would give the Rangers a young power hitter that would fit in well in the middle of the order. The only thing that would really hurt would be the strikeouts.
One More Thing...
The Farm System Previews will begin on Monday, in alphabetical order. Mark it on your calendars...
I'd like to take a moment of silence for the careers of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto.
Why?
Because the Reds hired this man...
I've maintained for years that Dusty Baker is a good manager to have when you have a lot of vets on a squad and are not trying to integrate rookies into the mix. Put him on a team that's trying to rebuild however, and you've got problems.
Simply put, Baker can't help himself but abuse young pitchers and unless they got powerful arms able to withstand abuse, he's going to ruin some careers. We've seen it several times, most notably in Chicago, where he may have destroyed the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.
Taking some tiem out from watching the playoffs to update you all on some Ranger thoughts I had. Let's kick it out the new title text:
The Rangers Report – Offseason Edition
Aki May Need Tommy John Surgery
This isn’t good news.
Reports are coming out that Akinori Otsuka, who hasn’t been seen since the All Star break, may need to undergo Tommy John, costing him all of 2009 and the last year of control under Texas before Free Agency.
Sigh.
Aki was likely going to exit Surprise next season as the closer for the Rangers. If he needs to undergo Tommy John, he’s going to get non-tendered and released by Texas, giving a final and craptastic end to one of the worst Rangers trades of all time.
And, just because I like rubbing salt on my wounds, here is how the trade worked out for Texas:
Adam Eaton – Posted a horrific year and didn’t even merit Free Agent Compensation, then bolted for the big bucks in Philly, where he’s been equally craptastic.
Akinori Otsuka – Did a great job as a closer in 2006, was an excellent setup man in 2007, but would be gone if he has to undergo TJ.
Billy Killian - A young catching prospect, Killian was terrible for Spokane and Clinton and was eventually sold to the White Sox for an undisclosed amount of cash and a cash of Milwaukee’s Best.
Bah.
Top Rangers Moments Of 2007
Michael Young’s 200th Hit – It’s great to see Mikie extend his 200 hit season streak to five.
The Return of Rangers Ballpark – The Rangers take back their ballpark by buying out Ameriquest and renaming the ballpark Rangers Ballpark In Arlington.
The 30-3 Game – This asskicking actually was able to help a lot of fans move on from Teixeira. ..well, expect for the Metroplex media (#### you Randy Galloway!)
Hank Blalock’s Return – And how! A Grand Slam against the Angels that helped ice a win on Sunday Night Baseball.
The 2007 Draft – The fact that Texas was able to add so many quality arms, many of which began to preform right away, is making for a potential farm system Bonanza come 2009.
Da Pick! Da Pick! Where Is Da Pick!
The draft standings are more or less finalized, and Texas will make the 11th pick in next June's amateur draft. It’s not a bad place to pick, really. The Rangers won’t get an elite talent unless he falls, but there should be a solid talent there.
Here’s the last five 11th overall picks.
2007 – Philipe Aumont (Mariners) – Love this guy, should be a solid major leaguer.
2006 – Max Scherzer (Diamondbacks) – Solid arm, potential closer.
2005 – Andrew McCutcheon (Pirates) – Tools city, has probably been rushed.
2004 – Neil Walker (Pirates) – Like the bat, not sure where he’ll play though.
2003 – Robert Aubrey (Indians) – Promising career short-circuited by injury.
The only real problem with this year’s draft is that it may be one of the weakest drafts in years. Still, there should be a decent talent around at 11.
Cat On First?
The more I look at the first base market, in terms of trade and free agency, the more I think it’s going to be likely that Frank Catalanotto will likely be the Rangers’ starting first baseman in 2008.
The reason being is that there are no real attractive options out on the open market, with only glove men like Sean Casey and Mike Lamb available. And the only first baseman that I know of that could wind up here, Todd Helton, would be a far too lengthy commitment for the Rangers, plus he would likely require the Rangers picking up an expensive option to come here.
Actually, hold that thought, there is also Adam Dunn, who could play first base and is reasonably comparable to Ryan Howard, but what would the Reds want in terms of prospects? I don’t think that enough of a deal could be reached for the two sides to swing a deal.
Meanwhile, playing Cat at first would allow the Rangers to use different outfielders, improving the overall defense, as Cat is rather bad in left. It would allow the Rangers to play David Murphy regularly in right field, while allowing Jason Botts, who isn’t great, but is better than Cat in left, while allowing the Rangers to concentrate on obtaining help in centerfield and DH.
Keeping An Eye On Felix Pie And David DeJesus
Two options in centerfield to keep an eye on are Cubs prospect Felix Pie and Royals centerfielder David DeJesus.
I think there was more truth than people realize when rumors surrounded Pie and the Cubbies’ apparent willingness to deal him in the right trade. There was a rumored deal of Gerald Laird for Pie, but the deal was quickly killed and the Cubbies announced they had no real intentions of trading him.
I’m not so sure.
Lou Pinella wasn’t a big fan of Pie’s during his time up with the Cubs and wasn’t enthused about playing him every day.
And, with rumors that the Cubs may go hard after a free agent centerfielder, that would all but block Pie from ever making it to Wrigley.
Which would make trading for Pie much more valuable, as it would allow the Rangers to get something for not as painful of a price. Pie is regarded to be a raw, Carlos Beltran type (then again, so is Rangers prospect Engel Beltre), and if he gets PT, he'll be able to blossom into something special.
Here's hoping the Cubs do so.
The other player is Royals centerfielder David DeJesus, who the Royals are supposedly looking into trading for younger, projectable parts, especially since they now feel that Joey Gathright has figured out how to hit. Gathright has leadoff potential and is faster and can cover more ground than DeJesus.
If the Royals are willing, I'd be ready to call if I were GM. I'm not sure what the price would be, but it wouldn't be real expensive, especially when you consider what the Royals got in exchange for Octavio Dotel (the mighty Kyle Davies).
The Royals have tried for years to acquire prospect Joaquin Arias. I'd be willing to deal Arias, especially since I got an Arias clone in Elvis Andrus. If I were making a deal, and DeJesus were available, I'd call up the Royals and dicker, with Arias being in the deal.
Arias is still very attractive, in that he's got loads of tools and is young. It's becoming obvious that a change of scenery may be necessary for him to reach his potential and he could eventually be better than Tony Pena Jr, who is a backup at best or a starter while he's cheap. The only real issue would be if Arias developed, which would potentially bite the Rangers in the way Hafner did, but really Arias is blocked in Texas by Young and Kinsler, so it would be for the best.
What Does The Future Hold For Loe, Laird, and Tejeda
The Rangers' final loss to the Mariners was likely the last for several Rangers, and the end for some of the Rangers’ current career paths.
Kameron Loe expereinced a odd season, where he seemingly found his mojo as a starter again before his old inconsistencies reached back to nab him again. While Loe has developed better off-speed stuff to go with his sinker, he hasn’t been able to sustain his success long. Overall, Loe has been better as a reliever, as he is 13-19 with a 5.08 ERA in 47 career starts and 5-4 with a 4.15 ERA in 46 relief appearances, but with the emergence of several young starters, Loe is likely going to be the long man coming into next year, or could be traded in the offseason to a team that could be able to work on him to be an average 5th starter.
The same has gone for Robinson Tejeda. What started out to be a promising season quickly devolved into disaster as Tejeda was shelled more and more as the seaosn went on, finishing 5-9 with a 6.61 ERA in 19 games before being sent down to Triple A, where he eventually had hsis eaosn ended due to injury. Tejeda’s future with the Rangers is also going to be one of uncertainty, as the rotation appears to be set with Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Gabbard and Volquez going into next year. Even worse, Eric Hurley is nearly ready and could challenge for a starting spot next year, leaving Tejeda’s opportunities for a third chance less and less likely.
Gerald Laird is a different story. With his bat going into the ####, Laird’s future as a Ranger likely was doomed once the Mark Teixeira deal brought in Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a natural catcher, over in the deal. While Salty projects to be a average first baseman, behind the plate he could be a perrenial All Star and a capable middle to late in the order presence. Laird was almost dealt at the deadline, but the Teixeira deal was swung too late to try and get a decent offer rolling. With the lack of young catchers in the majors all around, Laird, despite his numbers, could be attractive to several teams needing a young catcher with at least three years of control left on him.
On The Block Manana guys. Now, back to snoozing with the girlfriend and my niece...
Adam Dunn's time is running out, Rowand in DC, Jack Wilson heading to Detroit, More Trouble For Matt Bush, and the end of Gerald Laird's Ranger career, all coming up!
Adam Dunn May Be Done In Cincinnati
Adam Dunn may be in his last season with the Reds. It's not because of the strikeouts, or because of the Reds' woes, or even the fact that the Reds want to cut payroll to help supplement other areas of the staff.
It's because of Jay Bruce and Joey Votto.
Bruce is a talented Reds prospect is nearly ready after jumping several levels in the minor leagues and now holding his own in Triple A. He's got power, a solid eye, a capable defender and a good arm, all things that the Reds could use. As far as who he projects to be, Larry Walker is a common comparison.
Josh Hamilton has already established himself as the Reds' centerfielder, with Griffey holding down right field, which leaves left field as the only place for the uber-talented Bruce to start.
First base isn't an option either, beucase of Votto, a solid hitting first baseman that plays better defense than Dunn at first and blocks him.
Without the DH rule, that would render Dunn a very expensive bench player at $12 million.
However, the Reds won't let him leave without them getting something valuable back. It's possible that the Reds could pick up the option and look to trade Dunn this off-season, hopefully for much less than they asked the Angels when they looked into getting him.
A trade with the Rangers is possible because of the Rangers' needs for a first baseman/outfielder. However, the Rangers won't give up much for a one year rental, unless Dunn consents to an extension, which won't happen with free agent prices skyrocketing. Nor would the Rangers part with valueable prospects in return, in particular Eric Hurley and Taylor Teagarden, two of Texas' top prospects that the Reds would demand in return.
San Francisco may be a fit, as the Giants will need a power source on the team with Bonds not likely to return, however, prospects will be hard to exchange because the Giants have none and they will not consent to trading Jonathan Sanchez, a talented lefty that may be able to start that the Reds would target in return.
Were I to hazard a guess, the best fit for Dunn could be the Yankees, who need a first baseman not named Andy Phillips or god knows what else they've been running out there. They have the prospects to spare for Dunn, as they have several starting pitchers that could succeed in the National League that are of no use to them, and it wouldn't be a long term commitment, as the Yankees would be able to let Dunn go in order to pursue Braves first baseman Mark Teixeira.
Should be an interesting off-season in Cincinnati.
Monroe For Wilson Swap In The Works?
Detroit wants to find an NL club that is willing to take Craig Monroe, who was DFA'd, in parts of keeping him out of the AL.
Pittsburgh has been interested in Monroe in the past and would be willing to trade shortstop Jack Wilson if the Tigers pick up all of the $14.35 million remaining on the final two years of his three-year, $20.2 million contract.
The Tigers inquired about Wilson and nearly had a deal done for him at the deadline before talks fell apart becaue the Pirates asked for...Craig Monroe.
Surely the two clubs could work something out.
Rowand To DC?
Phillies center fielder Aaron Rowand is a free agent after the season, and while he hasn't revealed much on what he's doing after the season, he does like Washington, whom he feels is a up and coming team and will be a contender in a couple of years.
Rowand would be a solid addition to Washington and would be marketed as a face of the franchise and would be a team leader there.
However, I don't see it happening.
Washington is already experiencing a logjam in the outfield, with Wily Mo Pena, Ryan Church, Nook Logan, Austin Kearns and potentially Dmitri Young all vying for playing time.
Furthermore, Rowand will likely recieve more lucrative offers from his three top suitors, the Rangers, the Phillies, and the White Sox (not in that order.)
So as nice an idea it is, it won't happen.
More Trouble For Matt Bush
The Padres have confirmed that Matt Bush,the first overall pick in 2004, will need Tommy John Surgery on his pitching elbow, saying he should be good to go again in a year.
This is only the latest setback for Bush, who has been injury prone and under performed by the Padres, who took him instead of Tigers Ace Justin Verlander (fear of a holdout) and then Florida State shortstop Stephen Drew, who the scouts recommended to take, but were overruled because of cost. Also passed up was Jered Weaver, who fell to the Angels.
Bush was converted in June to pitching and has posted good results until recently, when in his Single-A debut for Fort Wayne, Indana on Thursday, Bush threw a pitch and reportedly ruptured a ligiment in his elbow and left.
It's unfortunate because Bush actually seemed to respond to the change, throwing a upper 90's fastball along with a promising curve.
Oh well.
Gerald Laird Is Available
Gerald Laird, the current Rangers catcher, is likely headed out of Arlington and headed elsewhere.
Laird likely was headed out anyhow, with the Rangers already having highly regarded catching prospect Taylor Teagarden coming on nicely, plus catcher Max Ramirez coming over in the Kenny Lofton deal.
However, with the acquisition of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Laird's fate was sealed earlier. Salty has a solid bat, but it profiles better at catcher and ultimately, that's where he will remain, as the Rangers have put an emphasis at looking elsewhere for a first baseman. That means that Laird will be out of a job and likely out of Texas.
Laird should be very highly coveted, as there are very few young backstops available on the market. There will likely be interest from several teams, including Detroit, Pittsburgh, the Mets and Yankees, as well as the Cubs, who inquired about Laird shortly after the trade of Teixeira was made.
There are going to be some names on this list if things stay put the way they look right now. However, there is no clear cut dominating favorite, as many of these closers are either A) Old, B) Injury Prone, or C) Inconsistent.
Mariano Rivera (Yankees) – It’s hard to imagine that Rivera would consider closing for someone else, but he’s apparently ready to make good on his threat if the Yankees won’t sign him. If he hits the market, Rivera can still be a viable closer, provided that all those innings that Torre used him to cover the deficiencies in the bullpen don’t catch up to him. However, I doubt New York will let him get away. As much as the Yankees make of Rivera being sort of expendable, the fact is that there isn’t many pitchers in the system that could replace Rivera. Proctor is likely going to be a starter at some point, Farnsworth should only be a closer in the NL and J.B. Cox in the system is a setup man.
Eric Gagne (Rangers) – Okay, everyone in Ranger Nation knows that Gagne is really only a one year wonder with Texas, as he’ll likely strike it rich somewhere else with another team, in spite of his recent comments that he wants to remain in Texas. Gagne looks all the way back so far and he could be the best free agent closer on the market.
Francisco Cordero (Brewers) – Coco Cordero was a solid closer with the Rangers, but he fell on hard times after his command left him, which is a shame as he’s actually a very underrated closer. Cordero brings excellent stuff and is effective as long as his command doesn’t desert him. After Gagne, Cordero could prove to be very attractive to a team needing a long-term answer at closer, but be careful. While Gagne has health issues, Cordero still has control issues that have resulted in his new nickname in the state of Texas: Blow-co.
Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals) – [If $8 million Club Option Declined]. I’m not sure that Isringhausen can last a full season, let alone serve as a closer for a team on a regular basis. I think he’s likely going to retire, though there’s always the chance that some team will take a chance with him if the price is right (I’m looking at you Florida.)
Bob Wickman (Braves) – Wickman is likely going to be a free agent, especially with all of the closers and closer quality arms that Atlanta acquired during the off-season. Like Isringhausen, I think he’ll also retire or sign with a team willing to take a flier on his.
Todd Jones (Tigers) – Everyone knows that Zumaya will be the closer in Detroit comes next year. Jones is a heart attack closer that really shouldn’t be closing anymore, as he’s quite hittable and makes you nervous when he takes the mound.
Jeff Allison Attempting A Comeback…Again
Jeff Allison, the much-troubled former first-round pick for the Marlins, who I've written about at length in this blog, is attempting another comeback, trying to work his way back into playing shape at the Marlins' spring training facility in Jupiter, Florida. However, it's unknown where Allison would be assigned, as he's now been out of baseball for almost two years, though any comeback will likely begin at Rookie Ball.
Allison was taken off the restricted list and re-joined the organization for formal workouts June 20. Allison is currently awaiting trial on felony possession of a stolen vehicle, but has been struggling most often with drugs, specifically the drug Oxy-Contin and Heroin.
Like the Josh Hamilton story, this could have a happy ending, though it would take a lot longer than Hamilton due to the development time needed on pitchers. However, I'm a little more skeptical on Allison, mostly because we've heard this story again and we've seen it end in collosal failure.
I do with him the best. I really do.
I'm just a bit more jaded about him.
Not All Lost In Cincinnati
Despite General Manager Wayne Krivsky taking a virtuall wrecking ball to the Reds, when realistically, there was enough of a solid foundation built and in place that only some minor tweeking to repair, he has managed to assemble enough of a young foundation to work on.
Consider the fact that while most of the team blows, Cincinnati does have two young starters in Aaron Harang and Broson Arroyo, a potential closer in Marcus McBeth, a pair of young stud positional players in Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton, and finally, a pair of superstar caliber prospects in Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey, respectively.
That's not bad, especially when you consider the potential impact of Bruce, who many feel is the second coming of Larry Walker.
There's a lot more to be done. Krivsky made a huge, potentially fatal mistake in trading away Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, and others for relievers, what is now regarded to be his big weakness (so if you got a reliever, give him a call) and he's grown visibily impatient with Adam Dunn due to his strikeouts, and his first draft pick, Drew Stubbs, is struggling mightily in Low A.
But for now, there is some comfort in knowing there's enough of a young core to identify and grown around in the future.
Key Piece Of The Abreu Deal Might Be Done With Baseball
Earlier this week, there was news that Phillies outfielder C.J. Henry was no longer is going to play baseball and planned to leave the Phillies organization soon. The news is premature, as Henry has cooled the fires down somewhat, but has admitted that he might join his younger brother Xavier on a college basketball team in 2008-09 if baseball hasn't worked out.
So far, it's looking that way.
Henry was drafted more on the basis of his gifts than his actual abilties. Henry was thought to eventually be a future version of Gary Sheffield with his extreme power potential and speed. Unfortunately, Henry's swing is long and he has struggled to hit advanced pitching. He's inadequate as a defender and is now on this third position change, now playing left field.
Should Henry opt out, his original contract provides for eight semesters of tuition at $15,000 per semester under baseball scholarship's plan. Henry's basketball prowess is still said to be high and he would essentially be able to name his program and try and join as a walk on.
Just another reason to blame Pat Gillick for not getting enough in return for Abreu.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.