The Rangers Report

Team Record as of May 15, 2006

(19-17), First in the American League West

State Of The Rangers

The Rangers hold onto the divison lead, but mostly due to the fact that the Games with Boston were rained out and that Oakland was destroyed a few times by the Yankees. 

The Benefit of a Nor'Easter

One benefit about the Rainouts is that it allows the Rangers to improve their rotation that is going to be against the Yankees.  So, here's how it will shake out.

Monday - Kevin Millwood vs. Mike Mussina.  Millwood should be better after his shellacking against the Twins (more on that later.)  However, I still think Moose will get the win against Texas.

Tueday - John Koronka Vs. Shawn Chacon.  Lefties do well at Yankee Stadium.  Despite Chacon being a solid pitcher, I gotta go with Koronka on this one.

Wednesday - Kameron Loe Vs. Chein Ming Wang.  Tough call.  Both are brilliant pitchers when they're on, god awful when they're off.  Won't make a decision on this one.  It's too close to call.

Thursday - Who The #### Knows Vs. Jaret Wright.  Vicente Padilla is the tentative starter, but he's currently battling tendinatis and might not be ready for Thursday.  If this happens, Texas could recall John Rheinecker or Robinson Tejada from Triple A Oklahoma to pitch.  I'd go with Rheinecker, the lefty, on this one.  The Rangers would probably get the win on this one, depending on how bad Wright is.

All in all, some great matchups this week.

Ouch

Kevin Millwood gave up nine earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in the Rangers' 15-5 loss to the Twins last Tuesday.  He would go in at 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA.  He would leave at 3-3 with a 5.13 ERA.  Though Millwood has always had trouble with the Twins (who were batting .354 off Millwood entering the game), there is still no excuse for being that bad.  Millwood had control issues the whole night, throwing his pitches dead center, right for the Twins to take advantage of him. 

The Ranger offense did it’s job, putting in 13 hits and five runs scored.  The pitching just betrayed them that night, as relievers Scott Feldman, Antonio Alfonseca and C.J. Wilson gave up five runs (three earned) in the last three innings, killing any chance of a rally.

The long term damage is that this kills any confidence in Millwood the fans have.  Now whenever Millwood is on the mound, we’re going to expect disaster to be just a step away, much as we do CJ Wilson whenever he’s on the mound.

I guess I shouldn’t feel too badly, as Randy Johnson got destroyed in Yankee Stadium that same night.

Bad night for aces, May 9^th was.

Jim Reeves Actually Wrote Something of Value…

Normally, I take whatever Jim Reeves writes up with a grain of salt.  But his recent article about the situation of the Rangers’ pitching kinda hit home for me a point that I had made several weeks ago about the Rangers finally having pitching.

He pointed out that with all the shifting of roster spots to several different starters, such as Rob Tejeda, Rick Bauer, and John Rheinecker, that we have virtually forgotten about the supposed saviors of the Rangers’ future rotation, Edinson Volquez, John Danks, and Thomas Diamond.

He had a point.  I hadn’t thought about them in weeks.

I’ve also forgotten about other players in the Texas system.

Adam Eaton – We’ve been so enamored with the job that John Koronka has done that we have forgotten the man responsible for his trade, Adam Eaton.  Eaton was slotted to be the second starter and was supposed to be fine here (not great).  He’ll be back in July, but I’m not sure he’ll stay with the Rangers long, as I think he’s going to be trade bait at the waiver wire deadline.

Josh Rupe – A great pitcher who wowed people when he came up last season in September, Rupe went down with an injury in Spring Training.  He’s been doing great in working to come back and he could be a option soon.

Brian Anderson – a veteran lefty, coming back from Tommy John surgery.  He should be available come September or so.  Maybe sooner.

All in all, this not only gives the Rangers depth, but valuable trade options, something Texas has not had in ages.  With such depth, the Rangers could also have the option of further restocking the farm system with more talented players, or maybe make a play to trade for a solid veteran pitcher or outfielder.

I can hear the Barry Zito trade talk start again.  Marvelous.

Plus, this takes the pressure off of Volquez, Danks, and Diamond, granting them the most vital ingredient necessary in player development:  Time.

Next week, we’ll take a look at how the 2007 Ranger Rotation may shape up.

A Casualty of Pitching Depth

Brian Shouse was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend for Enrique Cruz and a player to be named.  Though Shouse was one of the league's most effective situational left-handers in 2004, Shouse apparently no longer fits in with the Rangers’ plans.  It’s likely that the team is going to begin grooming another situation lefty, likely C.J. Wilson, Fabio Castro or Ron Mahay, though Mahay may be groomed into a starting pitcher and Castro as a long reliever, setup man or closer.  Combine that with starting pitchers John Danks and John Rheinecker in the system and you can see that there really was no reason to keep Shouse. 

San Diego Padres Rapidly Become Texas Rangers Pacific

Do we deal with any teams other than the Padres anymore? 

The Rangers traded for outfielder Freddy Guzman and pitcher Cesar Rojas from the San Diego Padres.  Guzman is a 25-year-old switch-hitter who is hitting .274 with a .348 on-base percentage in 30 games for Triple-A Portland, with 15 runs scored and 11 stolen bases.  He's had Tommy John surgery, but could still become something great.  As it was mentioned, he's got great speed and could challenge Adrian Brown for his bench job in the near future.  Rojas is a 19-year-old right-hander who was 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA for the Padres' Arizona Rookie League team.  In 49 1/3 innings, he gave up 48 hits and 32 walks while striking out 33.  He'll probably get sent to Class A Clinton for more work.  If he does well there, it's possible he could wind up at High Class A Bakersfield by the end of the year.

The Padres will get first baseman/outfielder Vincent Sinisi and pitcher John Hudgins.  Sinisi was the Rangers' second-round pick in the 2003 First-Year Player Draft, an All-American out of Rice University whose career was set back by a severe broken arm suffered while playing at Class A Stockton in 2004. He is batting .271 in 32 combined games for Double-A Frisco and Oklahoma with no home runs and 16 RBIs.  The Rangers signed him for $2 million.  The Rangers hoped he would be a top offensive prospect, but he hit just 10 home runs and drove in just 51 runs in 383 combined at-bats between Class A Bakersfield and Frisco last year.  Hudgins was a third-round pick in the 2003 draft out of Stanford and is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA at Oklahoma.  He was thought to be a great future rotation but, but he was 3-7 with a 5.87 ERA at Oklahoma in 19 starts last season and has fallen behind many of the Rangers' other top Minor League pitching prospects, most notably Edinson Volquez, John Danks, Thomas Diamond and Josh Rupe.

On The Block:  Barry Zito (Part Deux)

Alright, this is not really so much of a new article as it is an update.  Let’s see what’s going on since then.

Why He’s On The Block: The A's, who have almost no hope or expectation of signing Barry Zito long-term, are said to be 'discreetly' investigating trade possibilities for the star left-hander.  They would like to receive three younger, less costly players for Zito.  However, Beane isn't overly optimistic about his chances for a Zito trade and indicated there's more chance they'll just let Zito leave via free agency at year's end. "I'm not sure there's a right deal out there," said Beane. "It's going to be difficult to find the right match."

Asking Price:  Moderately high.  Zito does have the name value from his Cy Young win, but he has been rather average in 2004 and 2005.  Combined with the fact that he’s a one-year rental and his horrible start early this season and the A’s price is going to have to drop if they want to get anything for the man.

Negotiable:  Yes.  Oakland wants to get something for the last of the big three.  In order to do so, they’ll have to compromise if they want to get anything in return.

What He Offers:  Zito is entering his prime and is still young as he nears free agency.  He’s what he offers (again.)

·          Plus:  He’ll be 29 at free agency.

·          Plus:  He's left-handed.

·          Plus:  Has a winning record and did it in the American League.

·          Plus:  Great clubhouse guy.

·          Plus:  Low health risk.

·          Minus:  Not a power pitcher.

·          Minus:  Little variety to his pitches.

He Stay Or Will He Go:  90%-10% on him going, but to where?  Because of the lack of free agent pitchers on the market next year, Zito is going to have takers from everywhere.  So, judging by needs, rumors, and assumptions, here is the latest update on who’s looking at the Zito situation.

·          New York Yankees – 25%.   As I said in February, the Yankees are still the strongest suitor to go after Zito in free agency (they have nothing to trade.)  Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi have been trying hard to recruit their former team to join them in New York and Zito has the mentality to do well with the pressure cooker that comes from the Yankees.  Zito would do well in Yankee Stadium, which is kind to left handers, and he would serve as the anchor of a Yankee rotation that is currently in flux, thanks to Johnson likely retiring after next season, Mussina coming back as a fourth starter, with Wang, Chacon, Small and possibly Philip Hughes, the Yankees’ top prospect in the mix.  Plus, the Yankees will have Mussina’s contract (and possibly Jaret Wright’s as well) coming off the books next year, so they’ll be able to beat off their competition with their sheer financial strength.  This remains the likeliest destination for Zito.

·          New York Mets – 20%.   The Mets could use another starter, since the rotation is rather thin and Tom Glavine is near the end of his career.  Zito would do well in the National League, and particularly with the Mets, as they pitch in a pitcher’s ballpark and will face a much more watered down offense in the National League East.  A good fit, but the Mets aren’t likely to give the Athletics what they want in terms of prospects.  They’ll give in a shot in free agency.

·          Boston Red Sox – 15%.  The Boston rotation is currently in a state of flux.  Schilling is on for one more year.  Beckett is likely to remain with the Sox for several years, but beyond that, the rotation is a mess.  Tim Wakefield is nearing the end of his career, Papelbon is currently the closer, though he remains earmarked for the rotation, and David Wells appears done.  Adding Zito would be a stopgap until more of the Boston pitching prospects are able to take the reins.  However, Zito is lefthanded, and lefthanders are usually killed in Fenway.  Boston is more likely to go after the other member of the Big Three, Mark Mulder.  Still, Zito could get a look at in Boston.  Again, Boston won’t trade for him.  He’s strictly a free agency bid.

·          Los Angeles Angels of Beverly Hills 90210 – 15%.  Because Zito does well against the American League West, the Angels could decide to make a run at him.  Zito has stated that he likes the Angels, both team wise and stadium wise, plus he makes his off-season home in West Hollywood.  And added bonus is that his immediate family members live in Southern California and he played at USC.  This could be a good fit for the Angels, but there is a slight problem as far as the Angels coming up with the cash to pay him.  The bidding for Zito is going to be sky high and if Jeff Weaver manages to become somewhat viable as a fifth starter, the Angels could just promote Weaver’s brother Jered, a good young pitcher in their system, to improve their rotation. 

·          Texas Rangers – 10%.  Texas has long coveted Zito, seeing him as their possible ace of the future.  Zito has typically done well at Arlington stadium (and has almost always beaten the Rangers when he pitches) and would give Kevin Millwood backup in the rotation.  Plus, Arlington is kind to left handers (look at Kenny Rogers’ success there) and Zito would receive much more offensive support than he gets in Oakland.  However, Zito is likely to be expensive and the Rangers, who already have money tied up in Millwood (though Phil Nevin’s contract runs out next season) may not be able to keep up with the top bidders for the left-hander.  Plus, Zito has retained a grudge against the Rangers coming from when he was nearly drafted by the team and the team refused his demands for a large signing bonus.  The Rangers’ interest in Zito is likely going to be low, considering the success John Koronka has had so far, plus pitcher John Danks being a year and a half away from cracking the rotation.

·          Seattle Mariners – 10%.  Zito would add another quality arm to the rotation, giving Seattle three good starters in Zito, Hernandez, and Washburn.  Plus, Seattle would be weakening a rival at the same time.  Zito would thrive in the spacious confines of Safeco Field and would benefit from a talented young team.  The problem is that that bullpen is awfully shaky.  Plus, with several big contracts already given out, will Seattle want to spend more

·          Houston Astros – 5%.  Only in the event that the Astros fail to bring back Andy Pettitte, who loves playing in his hometown, the Astros could make a run at Zito with all of that cash freed up from the Bagwell and Pettitte deal’s expiring.  However, Zito is going to be expensive and the Astros would be better off passing.

End Result – Signed by the Yankees in the 2007 off-season for 5 years, $60 million dollars, plus a $20 million team option for a sixth year.