Well, the national nightmare is over, as it looks like the Twins will trade Johan Santana to the Mets.

But what did they get?

As seen in my last post, Santana Circle Jerk, the Twins in essence are gambling on the upside of Carlos Gomez and Delois Guerra instead of the certainty of a Jon Lester, a Phil Hughes or a Jed Lowrie.

Guerra and Gomez could blossom into superstars.  But both have massive flaws.  Guerra has been pushed hard by the Mets, but is still young and has some projection.  He also has trouble getting out of the high 80's on his fastball, which means the Twins are hoping he'll add velocity as he matures.

As for Gomez, he too has been rushed and needs at least another year and a half of minor league play if he's to live up to his high potential. 

And really, its on Guerra and Gomez that the Twins are pinning their hopes and dreams on, as Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey are both decent arms, but not aces and don't differ much from the Scott Baker type pitchers the Twins already have in their system.

Really, as I've stated earlier, the Twins could have had a better offer from the Red Sox (Lowrie, Lester, Crisp and likely Justin Masterson) or the Yankees (Hughes, Melky Cabrera and change.) 

But I think that there is another reason why the Twins agreed to this swap.

When something of ours disappears, we as people try to replace it as closely as we can.

And in Guerra and Gomez, the Twins are trying to replace Torii Hunter and Johan Santana as best they could, by trying to find similar players that could become their second comings.

It's a human reaction, albet a flawed one.

It's possible that in three years, both Guerra and Gomez could be superstars, making the Twins look wise in their deal.

It's also just as possible that both are massive busts.

I credit Omar Minaya on this deal, as he was able to get the best pitcher in baseball without giving up his best prospect, centerfielder Fernando Martinez, who also is a rushed, but promising young player.  He gave up nothing that he'll really miss and no one that isn't replaceable, as the Mets could easily go out to the Dominican and sign any remaining young prospects that haven't signed with teams to help replenish the farm.

I would feel pity for the Twins, but really, this is a mess of their own making.  They're choosing the riskier, but more lucrative path of gambling on the upside of some risky prospects.  It's the equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with three of the cylinders loaded for a fortune.  The payoff is huge.  So is the failure...

Grades:

Mets Grade - A
Twins Grade - B

Since I've still getting emails about why certain farm systems weren't reviewed (you didn't review this system, you ignored this prospect, you suck you Yankee/Red Sox hater, etc), I figured, what the hell, let me just start a regular feature.

Introducing The Prospect Six Pack, where I'll pick six random prospects and post up the mini scouting reports, semi-inspired by Kevin Goldstein.  Enjoy.

Prospect Six Pack

Carlos Gomez (CF) – Mets

• DOB:  12/4/85
• Signed:  2002, Dominican Republic
• 2008 Club:  Birmingham Mets (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/170
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Gomez has been aggressively promoted by the Mets for quite some time, but when Lastings Milledge, Moises Alou and Shawn Green all got hurt around the same time, the Mets were forced to call up Gomez and put him into service.  The result was predictable, as Gomez was undisciplined, raw and clearly not ready.
• The Good:  Part of the reason why Milledge was dealt was because the Mets feel that ultimately, Gomez will be better.  He’s a great athlete with remarkable speed, a solid defender, and good power potential.
• The Bad:  As I said, Gomez was rushed and the result was poor plate disciplined, power potential that is undeveloped and some rawness in the field as well.  The Mets need to have him in the minors, as he shouldn’t be on a major league bench. 
• Projection:  Average.  Gomez really had no business playing in the majors last year and the Mets gambled on him not getting his development stagnated by promoting him.  That said, he could still be a quality prospect if the Mets don’t do anything stupid.
• What He Can Be:  An above average centerfielder with an exciting speed and power combination.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Gomez will likely be back in Double A, where regular playing time against appropriate competition should help him continue his development process.  I’m hoping the Mets don’t pull a stunt like they did last year again.

Rick Porcello (RHP) – Tigers

• DOB: 12/27/88
• Drafted:  1st Round, 2007, New Jersey High School
• 2008 Club:  West Michigan Whitecaps (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-5/195
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Regarded to be the best prep pitcher since Josh Beckett, Porcello certainly looked it at times during his senior year at Seton Hall Prep and was reportedly considered by the Royals at two.  However, what happened was that Porcello’s advisor, Scott Boras, demanded Beckett’s contract, which was a 4 year Major League Deal, plus a bonus adjusted for inflation.  The result was that Porcello fell until the Tigers picked at 27, where they took the chance on him and gave him what Boras wanted, drawing the ire of Major League Baseball in return.
• The Good: Porcello was described to be the best prep prospect in the class and has drawn Josh Beckett like comparisons.  He throws a fastball that sits around 94-95 mph and hits 96, all with good movement on both his two and four seamer.  He throws a curve in the low 70’s and a slider that sits at around 80.  Finishing it all is his changeup, which is already a plus pitch and complements his curve well.  All in all, that’s a hell of an arsenal, especially when you consider that most high school prospects only have two pitches when drafted.
• The Bad: Porcello's command and control have been inconsistent.  Many also wonder about his durability, as he hasn’t pitched as much because of the weather in the Northeast.  The final flag is that because of his deal, Porcello has four years to develop and get to the Majors, whether he is ready or not.
• Projection:  Very High.  Porcello could be the next Beckett, but he could also be god awful, as the contract is a contract that could stunt his development, especially if he struggles.  So, he had better be what Boras has advertised.  And, to be quite honest, I’m not sure that Porcello is much better than Jarrod Parker, whom the Diamondbacks took higher up and got for a less money than Porcello.
• What He Can Be:  A bonafide Ace.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Like it or not, the clock is ticking and Porcello will likely begin the season with the White Caps, where hopefully he’ll be ready for action.

Jay Bruce (CF) – Reds

• DOB: 4/3/87
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Texas High School
• 2008 Club:  Louisville Bats (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/195
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Drafted by the Reds in the first round, Bruce has been compared by scouts to former major leaguer Larry Walker.  Since coming into the system, Bruce has done nothing but hit for power and play some mean defense and is now on the fast path to the majors for the Reds.  He’s already jumped from High A to Triple A and didn’t even stay long in Double A because he was so dominant. 
• The Good:  Bruce has great tools all around the board.  He’s got 30 home run potential and hits to all fields.  Though he’s got only average speed, he’s a great base runner.  He's got a strong arm and he has the range to play centerfield.  He does have some issues hitting lefties, but he’s improved enough where he shouldn’t have many issues with them.
• The Bad:  His swing can get long, resulting in lots of strikeouts.  And, while Bruce is average as a centerfielder now, it’s likely that he’ll eventually move to right field as his body fills out.
• Projection:  Average.  Bruce has been translating his tools into performance for the past couple of seasons and he's moving faster than expected.  He’s moved a lot faster than anyone could have anticipated.  He’s also got the potential to get a lot better than he already is, a sobering thought.
• What He Can Be:  An All Star Quality Right Fielder, Like Larry Walker.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Josh Hamilton was traded to the Rangers to eventually open up a job for Bruce, should he win one in Spring Training.  However, it’s more than likely that Bruce will start the season in the minors before being called up at midseason, depending on where the Reds are in the standings as well as when Ken Griffey Jr. makes his inevitable trip to the DL.

Colby Rasmus (CF) – Cardinals

• DOB: 8/11/86
• Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Alabama High School
• 2008 Club:  Memphis Redbirds (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/185
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Rasmus, the top prospect in the Cardinals system, enjoyed a breakout year in Double A and has rapidly developed faster than a lot of people may have thought possible, but it really shouldn’t be a surprise considering all the excellent prep outfield prospects drafted in 2005 (Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutcheon, just to name a few).
• The Good: Rasmus is one of the most athletic players in the Cardinals system with loads of tools.  He’s got a quick bat and solid power potential to make him a 25-homer threat in the majors.  He’s got good pitch recognition and should draw a good amount of walks in the majors.  He’s also a dynamic centerfield, with good range and a strong arm. 
• The Bad: Rasmus has some problems with lefties and he can be over aggressive, leading to strikeouts and being caught stealing. 
• Projection:  Average.  Rasmus is nearly ready for the show and he’ll only get better as time goes on.  Given time, he should be all that and more than what Jim Edmonds was for the Cardinals.  Long term, Rasmus gives the Cardinals another middle of the order bat to plug in behind Albert Pujols, which should help the big man’s chances to see some pitches.
• What He Can Be:  A star center fielder.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  In spite of what the Cardinals are saying about Rasmus being in the mix for their starting centerfielder job, that’s a hell of a jump to go from Double A to the Majors.  Rasmus is going to be starting for the Redbirds, where he’ll get some more seasoning, and could perhaps see some action with the Cardinals come August, as he’s not ready yet.

Will Middlebrooks (SS) – Red Sox

• DOB:  9/9/88
• Drafted:  5th Round, 2007, Texas High School
• 2008 Club:  Lowell Spinners (Short Season)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/200
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  A Top baseball and football prospect (QB), Middlebrooks' two-sport status may have lead to his falling down to the 9th round of the draft.  Boston, never a stranger to taking high ceiling talent in the lower rounds, pulled the trigger and signed him for almost a million dollars.
• The Good: A fantastic athlete with potential on the field and on the mound, Middlebrooks has good power potential and makes good, solid contact with the bat.  He’s got good speed and is an excellent baserunner as well.  Middlebrooks also has a strong arm and exceptional hands defensively.
• The Bad:  Middlebrooks lacks range, making a move to third base all but inevitable.  And while his speed is solid now, that could change as he continues to fill out and mature. 
• Projection:  High.  I like Middlebrooks and felt that Boston stolen him in the 5th round, which more than made up for their lack of a first rounder in 2007.  While he didn’t make my top 15 of Sox Prospects, he could easily rise up that list, depending on his campaign.
• What He Can Be: A power hitting third baseman in the mold of Troy Glaus.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  I think Middlebrooks will be kept at shortstop for now and will be worked with in extended Spring Training until Lowell starts their season, after which, he’ll being the year as the Spinners’ starting shortstop.

Daniel Moskos (LHP) – Pirates

• DOB:  4/28/86
• Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Clemson
• 2008 Club:  Hickory Crawdads (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/200
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Moskos was one of the top left handed college talents in the country that’s money as a closer.  However, there’s so much more to Moskos that just that.  There is the potential for more if he gets drafted in the right organization.  Because of the financial concerns that came with the Boras clients, the Pirates shied away from the mass of Boras arms available and instead took Moskos, who was a massive overdraft. 
• The Good:  Moskos has good velocity, throwing in the low 90’s while working up as high as the mid 90’s as a closer.  His fastball has great movement and he’s got a nice delivery.  He compliments this fastball with a filthy slider.  He’s also working on a changeup as a third pitch and many feel that he could be an excellent starter.
• The Bad:  The changeup is still a work in progress, so there’s no guarantee that he can get it up to a major league level pitch.  Plus, at his size, with a max effort delivery, Moskos is probably best-suited for the bullpen long-term.
• Projection: Low if he’s a closer.  He could probably setup in September, similar to what Andrew Miller did.  As a starter, I would say he’s going some average projection left.
• What He Can Be: A dominant closer
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Moskos has been told by the Pirates that he will remain as a reliever and he could very well enter the season as the Pirates' closer if they choose to go that route.  It’s more likely, however, that he’ll begin the season in Hickory.

   

Hope you enjoyed it.  If you want to see anyone in particular, leave a comment or send me a line at the email of FoxMail. 

I've had about enough of the Johan Santana rumor mill.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that he'll be there opening day with the Twins and will remain with them till at least the trade deadline.

Why?

Because it's becoming increasinly obvious that there is a lot of chatter from all sides, but no action.  Usually, the more rumors that are passed around about a player, the more unlikely it's going to happen.  It's like talking the whole night how you're going to go after the prettiest girl in the room, but at the end of the night, you're going back home to nothing but a hard drive full of porn and a full box of kleenex.

Sorry for the visual analogy, but that's what it's become in the Santana Sweepstakes, which have become nothing more than just a lot of shock jock fodder and a whole lot of New York centric media opinions (oh god, the New York media opionions!  Newsday has become unreadable!)  I swear to god, if I hear one more Hank Steinbrenner quote, I'll go up to Yankee Stadium myself and stuff his father's turtleneck in his piehole, just so he'd shut up!

BTW, is it just me, or is Steinbrenner the Younger seeming to enjoy the limelight that comes with his new job.  I think he's likely to follow in his father's footsteps, which means that the Yankees will be sucking in about five to eight years, thanks to Hank trading away the farm and signing the various Mel Hall and Danny Tartabull types on a whim.

The fact is, a trade should have already happened, as Boston, New York and New York should have pulled the trigger on a deal.

And spare me the talk about how Santana would require a huge contract extension that makes him unaffordable.  All three of these teams would be lining up to get into a money fight for Santana if he hits the market next winter.

And the Yankees are the last one's to be preaching fiscal responsibility.  Didn't they just spend $275 million on Alex Rodriguez?  They can easily afford to extend Santana, who fills a need and has more upside to any Yankee prospect with the exception of Joba.  They have $58.3 million coming off the books anyway, not counting the sunk costs of $6.95 million for paying Giambi and Pavano to go away.

Don't snicker Red Sox fans.  You all aren't any better.  You have about the same amount of money leaving the books, with Manny and Varitek's contracts coming off the books.  And you have the farm system depth to fill the holes as well. 

The Twins too also have to be reasonable.  You aren't going to get a team to completely gut their system for Santana.   It's unrealistic.  You need to get teams to agree to a reasonable set of demands and flip as soon as the best deal comes up. 

Financial reasons aside, here is what the Twins should reasonably expect to get for their ace:

• 1 High Quality Pitching Prospect
• 1 High Quality Positional Prospect
• 1 Above Average Pitching Prospect
• 1 Average Prospect Or Young Player

Here are the offers for each team:

Boston - Jon Lester (LHP), Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), Justin Masterson (RHP), Coco Crisp (CF)

I honestly don't know why the Twins haven't agreed to this deal, as it matches up with my qualifications perfectly.  I think the Twins are hoping that Boston will toss in Clay Buchholz, which won't happen.  Lester is an above average lefty who could be a number two starter.  Lowrie could start for Minnesota now and be the best second baseman they've had since Chuck Knoblauch.  Masterson has the potential to be a good pitcher in this league and Crisp helps give Minnesota a solid outfield for the first time in years.

New York (AL) - Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Jeff Marquez (RHP), Mitch Hillgross

This is insulting, actually.  While Hughes is very good and I like Marquez to be a solid innings eater in the NATIONAL league, the rest is just ####.  Cabrera is a average regular, not a star and I don't blame the Twins for shooing away fhe Yankees with this offer.  If you want to give me something to think about, here is what I would ask for:

Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Ian Kennedy (RHP), Alan Horne (RHP)

And before Yankee Fans jump on me, consider this.  Kennedy has been highly overrated since he was drafted and has been made to be a lot better than he is by the Yankee spin machine.  He is, at best, a average pitcher with excellent command and is at best a Number Three pitcher, nothing more.  He's not the second coming of Mike Mussia, who had better stuff than Kennedy at the beginning of his career.  Horne has good stuff, but is injury prone and likely a bullpen guy in the end.  Cabrera is an average regular, not a star. 

New York (NL) - Carlos Gomez (CF), Delouis Guerra (RHP), Phil Humber (RHP), Kevin Mulvey (RHP)

A good offer, it's better than what the Yankees are offering and it sends Santana to the NL, where he wouldn't haunt the Twins.  However, I would ask for Fernando Martinez, who has a chance to be a star, instead of Gomez.  That would trump the Red Sox offer and if I had that deal on the table, I'd take it and run with it.  Guerra has a chance to be a solid Number Two pitcher, Humber an inninsg eater, and Mulvey a solid 3.  That's not a bad return.

Oh, and by the way, Omar Minaya is a fool for not agreeing to trade Gomez back in November for Matt Garza, who had a chance to be the best pitcher on the Mets' roster.  The Twins should thank him, as they got Delmon Young in the deal, who is a lot better.

Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be inundated with more of the Santana claptrap, with more rantings for Hank Steinbrenner, more of us seeing Theo Epstein's Fraiser Crane impersonation with him saying "I'm listening", and more pleas from Omar Minaya for the Twins to accept his good, but not great offer. 

So sorry folks, we'll be listening to three more months of the same #### till Spring Training ends.

Alright, just a quick rundown on the Santana Sweepstakes.

On The Block – Johan Santana

The reason for this?  Why not?

The Why:  Santana is entering his walk year and the Twins have already made it known that they won’t give him Barry Zito’s deal to keep him, mostly because of owner Carl Pohland, who one of the cheapest owners in sports, and they may want to see if they can acquire talent for him to help the club in the long run, as the system is starting to run a little dry thanks to some over-conservative drafting.

The Rumored Asking Price:  Three to four good prospects, that are either ready to start immediately or are close to.

Can A Trade Be Done:  Yes, provided that a window for a contract extension is granted to the acquiring team.  Otherwise, no team is going to give up a top of low cost talent in exchange for a one year rental.

The Good:  Santana is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and could be the ace of ANY rotation.  He’s dominant, has proven to be healthy, and can pitch in the AL and has done so in many of the best hitters parks in the league.

Potential Hang-ups:

• Money – It’s going to be costly to extend Santana, who could be baseball’s first $20 million pitcher.  That’s a LOT of money and many couldn’t afford him. 
• Prospects – The Twins want high ceiling talent and a lot of it, which is going to make things difficult, as many teams simply don’t have farm systems that deep to send the necessary talent back.  So, that limits the amount of people that are legitimate suitors even further. 

Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order

• Boston Red Sox – Ummm, Boston apparently would be interested in Santana (but it makes no sense really, as they have a solid rotation already that is very cost effective), but they would likely offer the Twins a package of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and probably infield prospect Jed Lowrie, plus a player to be mutually decided on.  The problem is that they would only give up Lester and would balk if asked for Ellsbury or Buchholz. 
• Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers certainly have the ammunition to try and make a deal, with them offering a package that would include Andy LaRoche, their top third base prospect, Andre Ethier, who could start in left field, Matt Kemp, who would start in right, and likely Chad Billingsley, the top lefty prospect in the minors.  That is a hell of a package and would give the Twins immediate bonuses to three of their lineup spots while giving them a stud pitching prospect as well.  The problem is that Dodgers owner Frank McCourt might not like the price tag it would take to extend Santana. 
• New York Mets – Omar Minaya seems determined to make a huge splash, and has said he’s saving his trade chips for a front of the rotation pitcher.  There’s just one problem:  most of the Mets’ prospects suck.  Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey have had their stocks take hits and they lack many other positional players to send back to Minnesota.  The best thing they COULD do would be to see if the Twins still want to do that Matt Garza-Carlos Gomez swap.  I’d be all over that in a second.
• New York Yankees – The Yankees are sure to be in on Santana, and apprently, after the Game 4 loss to the Indians, they immediately called the Twins asking what it would take to build a package around Chein Ming Wang to get Santana.  This was purely rumor, but any deal involving Santana would likely involve New York.  Wang wouldn’t be attractive to the Twins as he’s going to be getting expensive short and he really isn’t what they’re looking for.  They’d likely ask for a package centered around Melky Cabrera and one of the Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain duet, with Robinson Cano thrown in for good measure.  The Yankees would likely balk and try to see if Ian Kennedy would get the job done, after which they’re promptly be laughed at and hung up on.  That’s really how it would go down, as New York is so protective even of their worst prospects that it’s hard to get a deal done.  However, with Hank Steinbrenner spilling the beans about the negotiations to get him, this deal may have legs after all.
• Texas Rangers – Texas certainly has the ammunition to make a deal, with a package likely having to center around Eric Hurley, their top pitching prospect, Ian Kinsler, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which would allow them to use Mauer at DH more often.  It would be a good trade package, but wouldn’t be enough to compare with what other teams may offer. 

If I Had To Pick A Deal Right Now...Traded To The New York Yankees For RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Ian Kennedy, CF Melky Cabrera and OF Austin Jackson

Will A Deal Ultimately Happen – Yes.  Frankly, the Twins could see themselves as being able to bounce back in contention with the return of Francisco Liriano, but let’s be reasonable.  The Twins also have a lot of holes and their owners’ reluctance to spend money means they can’t buy themselves the necessary fixes to help remedy the problem.  As a result, they’ve got to move him now to be able to at least reload with their current nucleus.