There is some wisdom in what the Astros did during the off-season, in the trades that brought them Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Michael Bourn. While Ken Rosenthal can rail against the deals all he wants, there is one thing you need to keep in mind.
None of the players traded was really a superstar. In fact, many weren't really all that good.
Yes, I know, Chad Qualls and Brad Lidge are plenty badass. But Lidge was likely gone in a year and Qualls, while solid, isn't a lights out reliever.
And of the prospects, the only one of real note was Troy Patton, who was sent to the Orioles. Everyone else that was dealt was either a disappointment or wasn't a world beater.
Overall, the Astros likely looked at their system, didn't like what they saw, and decided to spent what little collateral they had to improve their team. So long as they draft the best player available from now on, there is every reason that the Astros can replensih the farm in a short period of time.
That's IF they spend money and IF they draft the best player available, not just who will sign.
Koby Clemens Moving To Catcher
After another year of disappointment, the Astros are moving Koby Clemens back to catcher.
Originally drafted as a catcher, the Astros moved Clemens to third base, feeling that he would his stocky frame would allow him to take the abuse of catching, and his arm would be more than adequate from behind the plate. His bat, which has been disappointing thus far, would also look a lot better from behind the bag as well.
It's clear that there was some pressure on the Astros to draft Koby due to his dad, who was on the staff, but really, the Astros would have been better off spending the six figure bonus on someone else. Anyhow, Clemens could really provide some value from behind the plate if he's able to be a adequate catcher. Catching prospects are currently lacking in the majors and if Clemens can turn into at the very least a Gregg Zaun type of player, he's got a lot of value.
Astros Need To Re-Establish International Presence
Okay, one more, because quite frankly, I've had enough.
The Astros need to figure out why their pipeline to Latin America has dried up.
In the past, the Astros were kings of the Venezuelan Talent Market, with them signing player after player that was a serious talent. Some of the former talent mined from Venezuela: Bobby Abreu, Richard HIdalgo and Freddy Garcia, all of whom have enjoyed solid big league careers.
The talent has dried up.
Part of it has been Drayton McLane's tightening of the purse strings and refusing to pay up for big money talent in the draft or abroad. But the other part is that the Astros didn't evolve They weren't able to adjust for the times and as a result, several other teams now dominate the Venezuelan market and the Domincan, areas where the Astros did relatively well.
Whatever the case, it's time for Houston to re-establish their presence on the International Market.
Because all of the patch jobs, no matter the price, won't keep the franchise stable for much longer.
Before I start, Friday Morning Closer will now be posted on Sundays as Sunday Strikeouts - Notes Around The Major Leagues. Reason being that I'm now much too busy on Friday's to post notes for the Closer.
The Mariners are looking more and more like a contender, but there is one weakness that needs to be fixed.
Starting Pitching.
The Astros are falling further and further out of the playoffs and despite competing in the weak NL Central, they've got no shot whatsoever and need to start looking at the future, with several key veterens approaching free agency or entering their declien phases.
I think they both can help out here.
Here's a trade idea I think might work for both sides:
Seattle Gets
RHP Jason Jennings
RHP Brad Lidge
Houston Gets
RHP Jeff Weaver
C Prospect Jeff Clement
Okay, now before PF and Sleepless jump on me, let me explain.
Clement is roadblocked by Jose Vidro and Kenji Johjima as far as catcher and DH are concerned. They also need to find a way to get rid of Weaver, as he's been almost historically bad this season and isn't going to get much better.
Jennings, like Weaver, is a one year rental that has had some injury issues, but is also a proven horse. He'd greatly benefit from a solid infield defense and pitching friendly parks.
In this trade idea, Seattle gets a proven starter, a quality setup man while ridding itself of a headache. Houston gets a catcher that they sorely need and they begin the rebuilding process shortly after.
And, should the Mariners not re-sign Jennings, they'll acquire two draft picks for his status as a Type A Free Agent, which will be quite valueable.
It's a trade that benefits both sides, but won't ever happen because Seattle perhaps overvalues Clement and because Houston won't throw in the towel.
Sorry about not posting yesterday. i got a phone call about my sister fainting at school. I went to pick her up and, well, to put it lightly, after I took her to the Doctor's office to get her checked out, I found out I'm going to be an uncle.
I'm going to have a long talk with my soon to be brother in law...
My take on Michael Young's contract extension, as well as Gary Matthews Jr.'s steroid allegations will be talked about on Monday's Rangers Report.
In the meantime, let’s see where we go as the division previews roll on….
The Hat says, to loosely quote Davy Crockett, "The Red Sox can go to hell, we’re going to Texas!"
Houston Astros
The Astros again tried to turn it on at the end of the season to make the playoffs. They almost made it. However, Houston suffered some huge losses in the off-season. Though they bolstered the offense with the addition of Carlos Lee, the loss of Andy Pettitte, who genuinely wanted to stay with the Astros, as well as that of Roger Clemens leaves the staff decimated. Houston has taken measures to try and ensure the rotation will stay together, but a lot of it depends on the youngsters stepping up.
Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt (RHP) – Oswalt is now the oldest member of the rotation and by far the most successful and most experienced. Though questions about his durability will always abound, Oswalt has been solid the last few years and has been nothing short of dominant. Oswalt will likely post solid numbers again and contend for a Cy Young, but he no longer has that dominant lineup behind him, as the talent level drops off severely after him.
Jason Jennings (RHP) – Jennings was obtained for a high price, with the Rockies obtaining pitchers Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz and centerfielder Willy Taveras in exchange. Jennings is in his walk year and has a career line of 58-56, with a 4.74 ERA. He also had a losing record last year, but that should change with a more pitcher friendly park. Is he as good as the man he’s replacing, Andy Pettitte? No. But can he be a solid innings eater. Yes.
Woody Williams (RHP) – Not sure why the Astros spent money on Williams instead of spending it on Pettitte. Williams has lost a lot of his edge as far as his stuff goes and his ERA was largely a product of Petco instead of performance. He should be a fifth starter, but unfortunately he’ll be the third guy in Houston.
Wandy Rodriguez (LHP) – People are going to wonder why Rodriguez is the fourth starter and not some of the other options. For starters, Rodriguez isn’t as bad as people think, as his stuff is tolerable and he’ll keep the team in the game provided he gets run support (something he didn’t get much of last season. And second of all, Rodriguez is the only lefty and the most experienced of the young Astros. Hence, sticking him here is a no brainer.
Chris Sampson (RHP) – Sampson was good as a reliever, but even better as a starter. With Nieve better suited to relief, where it’s thought that he’ll eventually become a closer, Sampson is my favorite to win the fifth starters job.
Bullpen
Brad Lidge (Closer) – Lidge has had a rough time since Albert Pujols’ moon shot during the 2005 playoffs. Lidge has since been hammered hard and has even lost the closer’s role for a time during his struggles. Lidge enters the season on the hot seat, as the slightest hint of trouble will cause fans and management alike to demand Dan Wheeler to take over.
Dan Wheeler (Setup Man) – Wheeler is a solid setup man that could close on many teams. Unfortunately for Brad Lidge, that team might be the Astros if he’s not careful.
Chad Qualls (RHP) – There was talk of Qualls moving in the rotation to serve as the fifth starter, but that talk has since ended, leaving this solid setup man as the Astros’ 7th inning option.
Trever Miller (LHP) – Miller did wonders in his first year in the NL. Now, he’s going to have the pressure of being the pen’s only lefty reliever.
Fernando Nieve (RHP) – Many scouts like Nieve’s ability, but see him more as a reliever in the future. With Sampson likely going to get the nod to starter, Nieve will have a whole season to adjust himself to relief duty. It’s hoped that once Lidge moves on (which I eventually believe he will), Nieve will be the team’s closer. For now, he’s the team’s Longman.
Dave Borkowski (RHP) – This Rule V Pick has great arm strength. I have him in the pen, because usually you don’t spend the cash on a Rule V pick unless you plan on keeping him.
Starting Lineup
Chris Burke (CF) – With Willy Taveras now in Colorado, Burke will finally be in the lineup everyday. Burke is a solid offensive player that is a better fit at second than in center, but with Craig Biggio still in Houston and Hunter Pence not ready, Burke has to make the transition as smooth as possible until Biggio reaches 3000 and until Pence shows he’s set for the majors. Burke should be a superb upgrade offensively, as he’s got more power than Taveras, while maintaining the same contact rates.
Craig Biggio (2B) – The last of the original Killer B’s, Biggio will play everyday until he gets hit Number 3000, after which he’ll likely begin to sit down to allow Burke some reps at second. BIggio showed his age last season, but I think he’s got at least one decent season left to wring out from him.
Lance Berkman (1B) – Berkman had to step into the role long occupied by Jeff Bagwell and did so admirably, putting up a MVP caliber season in which Berkman drove in 136 runs, while hitting .315 with 45 home runs, all while taking talks and getting on base, though a lot of that was intentionally walking, thanks to little protection behind him in the lineup. With Carlos Lee now in Houston, Berkman should have a lot more RBI chances.
Carlos Lee (LF) – Now that he’s finally in Houston, Lee should provide more than adequate protection to Berkman and should take advantage of the short left field porch at Minute Maid. Lee continues to improve as a hitter and has loads of thunder in his bat, but his range in Left last season with Texas should be troubling. Lee has been said to have been working on his conditioning this off-season, so it should be interesting to see how he shows up to Spring Training this year.
Luke Scott (RF) – Scott provided an extra power bat for the Astros after being called up and will now be part of the Astros’ heart of the order. With Lee and Berkman hitting in front of him, Scott will see a big chance to get some RBI chances, particularly if this next guy rebounds to his old form.
Morgan Ensberg (3B) – Ensberg was awful last season, losing the starting job to Aubrey Huff, but Ensberg was also hurt last year and that may have altered his hitting motion, resulting in his collapse. The signs are good that Ensberg has at least one more quality season left on him before he begins to enter his decline phase.
Adam Everett (SS) – This light hitting shortstop makes up for his offensive troubles by flashing the leather at short. He should have won the Gold Glove instead of Omar Visquel, but Gold Gloves tend to be won more on reputation than anything else.
Brad Ausmus (C) – Ausmus is the worst regular catcher in baseball. Despite a solid defensive glove and with him being one of the most respected players on the team, Ausmus doesn’t hit enough to justifying him being a starter. Thankfully, this is the final year of his contract, but Houston needs to start looking for a temporary solution to catcher, as the kids aren’t ready yet.
Bench
Mark Loretta (IF) – Loretta figures that he’ll get some playing time spelling Morgan Ensberg and Craig Biggio, which is why he picked the Astros’ offer of being their utility man over that of the Rangers. Loretta still has some good pop in his bat, but he’s not going to hit for much power. I do think that he’s valuable in terms of doubles power and as far as fielding, he hasn’t lost enough on his glove to make him a liability.
Mike Lamb (1B/3B) – Once a highly touted Rangers’ prospect that flamed out, has found a hope in Houston, where he’s been able to hit for contact, if not much power. He plays a solid hand at the infield corners and should get plenty of playing time with Ensberg’s status in doubt and Berkman needing a day off every now and then.
Jason Lane (OF) – Kinda hard to see why the Astros are giving up on Jason Lane one year after posting a .267, 26 HR, 79 RBI campaign. But with Lee now in left and Scott now the next big thing in right, Lane’s left with bench duty.
Humberto Quintero (C) – The Astros’ backup catcher is unproven at the moment, but if Quintero could offer any offensive upgrade over Ausmus, the Astros should give him a shot.
Eric Bruntlett (SS) – Brunlett was passable as a backup shortstop. He’ll see some time at short, second, and possibly center.
Disabled List
Brandon Backe (RHP) – Backe is a solid young pitcher who was once mentioned in a possible trade to the Texas Rangers for Alfonso Soriano. However, Backe had to undergo Tommy John surgery toward the middle of the season and won’t be an option until the end of the season. If Backe can come back to at least 70% of what he once was, the Astros will take it.
Can't Make Up His Damn Mind
Roger Clemens (RHP) - Clemens is again trying to decide what the hell he's going to do with his career, if he's going to retire or play another season. At this point, many of the Astros teammates have quietly made it know that they really would rather do without the soon to be hall of famer. It strikes me more of a case that the rest of the Astros tolerate him, but have some resentment over the fact that he doesn't play the whole season, nor does he show up to the park every day. We'll see what happens, but if Clemens again decides to return to Houston, he'll have a huge impact.
Down On The Farm…
The Astros farm system is in one of it’s down periods, as the Astros have now begun aggressively trying to win now, surrendering draft picks to sign free agents. The Astros are without a first rounder this year, having surrendered their pick to Texas for the Carlos Lee signing. The system has also surrendered a lot of talent via trades, as Hirsh, Buchholz, Mitch Tablot, Ben Zobrist and others, thinning it further. The Astros have also lost ground in Venezuela, a arena they once dominated, resulting in further losses. The system does have some intriguing arms, but there is a lack of prospects that can hit, aside from Hunter Pence.
Hunter Pence (OF) – Pence, the organization’s best (and only) position prospect, is a powerful righthanded hitter, from Arlington, who has done nothing but hit since he came into the minors. Pence’s athleticism allows him to play all of the outfield positions, as well as giving him great speed on the bases. His power in his bat is incredible, but there are some doubts as to whether or not he’ll hit for average In the majors. There’s also the question of his judgement, as he was caught for DUI this past fall as well. The Astros hope the embarrassment from the bust will keep him in line now and he may get called up as soon as Craig Biggio gets 3000 hits, allowing the Astros to begin playing Chris Burke at second a bit more, opening center for Pence.
Troy Patton (LHP) – Patton is a hard-throwing lefthander that is now the Astros’ best pitching prospect now that Hirsh is a Rocky. Patton has excellent stuff for a lefthander, with a very nice 89-92 mph fastball that touches 94 and has good movement. He compliments it with a hard curveball, and he’s got the makings of a decent changeup. He held his own at Double-A before his 21st birthday. Patton also has a history of arm trouble, as he’s pitched through arm soreness and various points in his career. Patton will likely return to Double A in 2007, but he could be a factor in the rotation at some point this year.
Matt Albers (RHP) – A 2001 Draft and Follow, Albers was impressive in the lower minors, beginning the season in Double A and finishing it in the majors. Albers has excellent command and control of low 90s fastball and a slider that becomes a plus pitch at times. Good feel for a changeup. The only real problem I have with Albers is like all short pitchers, his pitches have less of a plane to move on, resulting in little movement. He also issues a bit too many walks for my taste, but at the very least, he’ll be a solid fourth or fifth starter if he can cut down on them. Albers could be an option for the rotation at some point this season.
Juan Gutierrez (RHP) – Gutierrez is often overshadowed by Patton, but that doesn’t mean he’s not talented. He’s a pitcher with a power arsenal, as his fastball sits in the mid 90’s and he’s got a hard curve to compliment it. He’s changeup is still a work in progress, but he does have the tools to succeed if he can get it going well. He’s ready to help out in the bullpen now, but look for him to remain in Triple A for the moment.
In Conclusion
This is a weak division, to be sure. But in the case of Houston, they’ve got just enough youth and experience that they’ll win the crown and return to the playoffs again, Rocket or no Rocket.
Final Standing: National League Central Division WInner
Listen Yankee fans. I’m sick and tired of hearing about all this #### about A-Rod not being a “true” Yankee, that he’s never going to be accepted unless he comes through in the clutch, that he’ll never be equal to Jeter in ability and talent.
Enough already.
While it’s true that A-Rod seems to be too structured and less the genuine at times, he’s a hell of a lot better than they guy that the Yankee fans keep wanting to reference to, Scott Brosius.
Brosius, who was obtained for Kenny Rogers in 1998 and was seemingly deified in Buster Olney’s book The Last Night Of The Yankee Dynasty, was remarkably mediocre save for his 1996 Season with Oakland (.304, 22 HR, 71 RBIs) and his 1998 season with New York (.300, 19 HRs, 98 RBIs). Then he turned in a stellar postseason by hitting .383 with four homers and 15 RBIs, capped by a World Series MVP award. After that, Brosius was remarkably terrible, hitting .254 and averaging about 15 Home Runs and 61 RBI’s.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has outperformed Brosius in every sense of the word, hitting .299 while averaging 39 Home Runs and 117 RBI’s. He’s third among Major League Third Baseman in Home Runs, (34), second in walks (86), 9th in Slugging Percentage (.514), and 9th in Hits (157). Compare him to the Yankees, and he’s second in Home Runs, Walks, and Slugging Percentage, First in RBI’s, and Third in Hits and On Base Percentage.
But then comes the inevitable argument.
But Brosius was better during the post-season
Oh Really!
Scott Brosius's Post Season Numbers
HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
12 Postseason Series 8 30 8 46 .245 .278 .418
Alex Rodriguez's Post-Season Numbers
HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
8 Postseason Series 6 16 15 28 .305 .393 .534
Santana Closing In On Pitchers Triple Crown
Here’s something that hasn’t been mentioned by many. Johan Santana is rapidly closing in on the Pitchers Triple Crown. He leads all pitchers with 18 wins, 240 strikeouts, and a 2.79 ERA. The last time that there was a Pitchers Triple Crown was in 2002 when Randy Johnson did it with 24 wins, 334 strikeouts and a 2.32 ERA. The last time it happened in the AL was in 1999, when Pedro Matrinez accomplished the feat with 23 wins, 313 strikeouts and a 2.07 ERA.
Red Sox Need A Closer
With Jonathan Papelbon now moving into the rotation, the bullpen is now completely devoid of any impact players that can hold a lead in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. There are still questions as to whether or not this is a wise idea. Papelbon has been dominant as the closer, but his splitter wears on his arm and he’s had some health problems that create some doubts as to whether or not he can last 200 innings a season. If Paps is taken out of the bullpen, that leaves the Red Sox with Julian Taverez and Manny Delcarmen, who has managed to survive the first trial by fire that all Boston players go to. This fills the role of the long reliever and the setup man, but lefty specialist, middle reliever, and closer are all going to need to be filled. While the Red Sox could strike it rich as far as a lefty is concerned, plus bringing Keith Foulke and Mike TImlin back for one more year as a setup men/spot closers, neither is a sure bet to stay healthy or to successfully dominate as a closer.
So what options are available? As far as existing assets, Boston could use Matt Clement as the closer, seeing as how he’s unmovable and that they have him on the books for another year. It’s possible that if he limits his innings, he could be able to prolong his effectiveness and not succumb to his tendency to become a batting tee. But that’s a very dangerous gamble, as at this point, you have no idea what you have with Clement at the moment. Craig Hansen was drafted to become the eventual closer, and he’s still got that high 90’s fastball with that good breaking ball. But he’s regressed this season, a fact that I know is a consequence of his rushed development to the big club.
As far as trade options, there was a rumored trade with Texas for Francisco Cordero, but the Rangers didn’t find any options that would have helped them. I heard this rumor only a couple of times, so it’s possible that this was just a baseless one and not one with any fact. However, the Sox could trade with Houston for closer Brad Lidge, who that Astros tried to move at the deadline in order to give the job to Dan Wheeler. But again, there isn’t anything Boston can send back to the Astros in return. Despite the fact that Lidge has had some control problems, as seen by his high ERA, the Astros aren’t going to give him away. The Red Sox would have to deal a relatively decent prospect in return, which I’m not so sure they’re willing to do. So that leaves free agency, which isn’t a lock either.
Danys Baez – The former D-Rays closer is 29 and was a hot commodity after converting 41 of 49 save opportunities (83.7%) for the Devil Rays last year with a 2.86 ERA. He was traded to the Dodgers this year for garbage, but in return was just 9 for 16 after Eric Gagne went down. He was traded to the Braves and worked ten innings until he needed an appendectomy. Baez doesn’t blow hitters away and outmaneuvered hitters last season instead of dominating them. He’s going to want a lot of money, but he’s not worth it.
Octavio Dotel – The former Astros and A’s closer finally returned from Tommy John surgery on August 16th, 14 months later. The results haven’t been pretty, but this could be attributed to the recovery factor that always follows Tommy John. He’s mentioned a desire to return to New York, but it’s unlikely, thanks to the emergence of Darrel Rasner.
Joe Borowski – No one expected Borowski to have such success with the Cubs from 2002-03, and his resurgence in 2006 has been equally surprising. This year, he’s posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 31 saves. However, he’s older and has some miles on his arm, increasing the risk on signing him.
Eric Gagne – Gagne was one of the most dangerous closers a few years ago, but a slew of health problems have taken the axe to his career. Gagne hopes to remain a Dodger, but Scott Boras could convince him to explore the market. It’s unknown whether or not Gagne still has that 100 mph heater, but if he’s anywhere close to where he was, he could again be a solid closer. However, Gagne has only pitched 15.3 innings over the last two seasons. He's a very risky signing, even if his contract is mostly performance based.
Kerry Wood – Wood finally admitted that he might be better off as a reliever last seasoncould surprise as a closer if one of them is willing to give it a shot. If Wood is able to harness his talents in the bullpen, he could easily rank as one of the most dangerous closers in baseball. But again, that’s a big if, as Wood has had trouble staying healthy long enough to allow his velocity to come back completely.
As you can see, the Red Sox are in a bind as far as their bullpen goes. They could offer several of these guys a shot at the job in spring training, and perhaps keep some of them along to deepen the bullpen. None of these guys will replace what they had in Papelbon, but until Hansen is able to take over the job, Boston has no choice but to put them chips in one of these teetering baskets and hope that it doesn’t fall over.
Zito Not Headed To The Big Apple
This has got to be the last thing Scott Boras wanted to hear. Multiple newspapers are reporting that both New York teams have minimal interest in Barry Zito. When the Mets made a run for Roy Oswalt at the trade deadline, they stayed away from Zito, not just for the asking price, but because Zito wasn’t viewed as a number one starter. Reportedly, the New York Yankees feel the same way and would prefer to sign some lower price, serviceable talent, that would be able to perform well enough for the Yankees to work in top prospects Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard. This is the complete opposite of what we were hearing in April and from what was flying around at the deadline. Boston is also said to be out of it, as they lack the payroll flexibility, plus they have several more needs that need tending to. Popular speculation is that the Padres and Rangers are now the biggest horses in the race.
San Diego – The Padres are willing to spend the money in this off-season to upgrade the team, but with the pitching staff as solid as it is, the Padres would be better off upgrading some of their other positions, such as catcher and third base. They could make a run at Zito, who would greatly benefit from a weaker national league lineup, and the spacious outfield of Petco Park.
Texas – If Zito were to sign with the Rangers, Texas would have a lefthanded starter that typically does well in their park, plus can eat up innings and stay relatively healthy. He’s not an ace, but Zito would at least give the Rangers a solid one two punch with Millwood. Again, the Rangers would also have to bring back either Vicente Padilla or Adam Eaton (possibly both) for them to take full advantage of their pitching staff.
Seattle – The Mariners would have to unload Adrian Beltre in order for them to be able to pull this off. They’ll likely sign Jason Schmidt, but they seem more inclined to go after Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is far more dangerous as a starter. Still, I could see the Mariners entering the bidding if they lose out on the posting price (depending on Boston, Texas, New York, and Los Angeles.) I still see them as a long shot, though.
Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies could be a player, since they will have some money to play around with and vacancies in the rotation. They’ll make things interesting, but will likely be outbid.
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs could try to make an offer, seeing as how the lineup is relatively weak behind Carlos Zambrano. However, it’s unknown what the wind currents at Wrigley will do to a pitcher like Zito, and could sap his effectiveness. Plus, the Cubs need position players a hell of a lot more than they do pitchers, namely a shortstop WHO CAN HIT, a second baseman, and possibly a catcher if Aramis Ramirez opts out. It’s very possible that the Cubs would prefer to chase down one of the two big power bats that will be available: Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano.
Do I think it’s all a smokescreen? Of course. But if the rumors are true, it’s going to get interesting to see how the bidding goes without the two heaviest of hitters joining into the fray.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.
