The Astros Report - Offseason Edition

Because I had to settle a bet.

Some Wisdom in Trading Away The Farm

There is some wisdom in what the Astros did during the off-season, in the trades that brought them Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Michael Bourn.  While Ken Rosenthal can rail against the deals all he wants, there is one thing you need to keep in mind.

None of the players traded was really a superstar.  In fact, many weren't really all that good.

Yes, I know, Chad Qualls and Brad Lidge are plenty badass.  But Lidge was likely gone in a year and Qualls, while solid, isn't a lights out reliever.

And of the prospects, the only one of real note was Troy Patton, who was sent to the Orioles.  Everyone else that was dealt was either a disappointment or wasn't a world beater. 

Overall, the Astros likely looked at their system, didn't like what they saw, and decided to spent what little collateral they had to improve their team.  So long as they draft the best player available from now on, there is every reason that the Astros can replensih the farm in a short period of time.

That's IF they spend money and IF they draft the best player available, not just who will sign.

Koby Clemens Moving To Catcher

After another year of disappointment, the Astros are moving Koby Clemens back to catcher.

Originally drafted as a catcher, the Astros moved Clemens to third base, feeling that he would his stocky frame would allow him to take the abuse of catching, and his arm would be more than adequate from behind the plate.  His bat, which has been disappointing thus far, would also look a lot better from behind the bag as well.

It's clear that there was some pressure on the Astros to draft Koby due to his dad, who was on the staff, but really, the Astros would have been better off spending the six figure bonus on someone else.  Anyhow, Clemens could really provide some value from behind the plate if he's able to be a adequate catcher.  Catching prospects are currently lacking in the majors and if Clemens can turn into at the very least a Gregg Zaun type of player, he's got a lot of value.

Astros Need To Re-Establish International Presence

Okay, one more, because quite frankly, I've had enough.

The Astros need to figure out why their pipeline to Latin America has dried up.

In the past, the Astros were kings of the Venezuelan Talent Market, with them signing player after player that was a serious talent.  Some of the former talent mined from Venezuela:  Bobby Abreu, Richard HIdalgo and Freddy Garcia, all of whom have enjoyed solid big league careers.

The talent has dried up.

Part of it has been Drayton McLane's tightening of the purse strings and refusing to pay up for big money talent in the draft or abroad.  But the other part is that the Astros didn't evolve  They weren't able to adjust for the times and as a result, several other teams now dominate the Venezuelan market and the Domincan, areas where the Astros did relatively well.

Whatever the case, it's time for Houston to re-establish their presence on the International Market.

Because all of the patch jobs, no matter the price, won't keep the franchise stable for much longer.

2007 Free Agency – Closers

There are going to be some names on this list if things stay put the way they look right now.  However, there is no clear cut dominating favorite, as many of these closers are either A) Old, B) Injury Prone, or C) Inconsistent. 

•  Mariano Rivera (Yankees) – It’s hard to imagine that Rivera would consider closing for someone else, but he’s apparently ready to make good on his threat if the Yankees won’t sign him.  If he hits the market, Rivera can still be a viable closer, provided that all those innings that Torre used him to cover the deficiencies in the bullpen don’t catch up to him.  However, I doubt New York will let him get away.  As much as the Yankees make of Rivera being sort of expendable, the fact is that there isn’t many pitchers in the system that could replace Rivera.  Proctor is likely going to be a starter at some point, Farnsworth should only be a closer in the NL and J.B. Cox in the system is a setup man.
• Eric Gagne (Rangers) – Okay, everyone in Ranger Nation knows that Gagne is really only a one year wonder with Texas, as he’ll likely strike it rich somewhere else with another team, in spite of his recent comments that he wants to remain in Texas.  Gagne looks all the way back so far and he could be the best free agent closer on the market.
• Francisco Cordero (Brewers) – Coco Cordero was a solid closer with the Rangers, but he fell on hard times after his command left him, which is a shame as he’s actually a very underrated closer.  Cordero brings excellent stuff and is effective as long as his command doesn’t desert him.  After Gagne, Cordero could prove to be very attractive to a team needing a long-term answer at closer, but be careful.  While Gagne has health issues, Cordero still has control issues that have resulted in his new nickname in the state of Texas: Blow-co.
• Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals) – [If $8 million Club Option Declined].  I’m not sure that Isringhausen can last a full season, let alone serve as a closer for a team on a regular basis.  I think he’s likely going to retire, though there’s always the chance that some team will take a chance with him if the price is right (I’m looking at you Florida.) 
• Bob Wickman (Braves) – Wickman is likely going to be a free agent, especially with all of the closers and closer quality arms that Atlanta acquired during the off-season.  Like Isringhausen, I think he’ll also retire or sign with a team willing to take a flier on his. 
• Todd Jones (Tigers) – Everyone knows that Zumaya will be the closer in Detroit comes next year.  Jones is a heart attack closer that really shouldn’t be closing anymore, as he’s quite hittable and makes you nervous when he takes the mound.

Jeff Allison Attempting A Comeback…Again

Jeff Allison, the much-troubled former first-round pick for the Marlins, who I've written about at length in this blog, is attempting another comeback, trying to work his way back into playing shape at the Marlins' spring training facility in Jupiter, Florida.  However, it's unknown where Allison would be assigned, as he's now been out of baseball for almost two years, though any comeback will likely begin at Rookie Ball.

Allison was taken off the restricted list and re-joined the organization for formal workouts June 20.  Allison is currently awaiting trial on felony possession of a stolen vehicle, but has been struggling most often with drugs, specifically the drug Oxy-Contin and Heroin.

Like the Josh Hamilton story, this could have a happy ending, though it would take a lot longer than Hamilton due to the development time needed on pitchers.  However, I'm a little more skeptical on Allison, mostly because we've heard this story again and we've seen it end in collosal failure.

I do with him the best.  I really do.

I'm just a bit more jaded about him.

Not All Lost In Cincinnati

Despite General Manager Wayne Krivsky taking a virtuall wrecking ball to the Reds, when realistically, there was enough of a solid foundation built and in place that only some minor tweeking to repair, he has managed to assemble enough of a young foundation to work on.

Consider the fact that while most of the team blows, Cincinnati does have two young starters in Aaron Harang and Broson Arroyo, a potential closer in Marcus McBeth, a pair of young stud positional players in Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton, and finally, a pair of superstar caliber prospects in Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey, respectively.

That's not bad, especially when you consider the potential impact of Bruce, who many feel is the second coming of Larry Walker.

There's a lot more to be done.  Krivsky made a huge, potentially fatal mistake in trading away Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, and others for relievers, what is now regarded to be his big weakness (so if you got a reliever, give him a call) and he's grown visibily impatient with Adam Dunn due to his strikeouts, and his first draft pick, Drew Stubbs, is struggling mightily in Low A.

But for now, there is some comfort in knowing there's enough of a young core to identify and grown around in the future.

Key Piece Of The Abreu Deal Might Be Done With Baseball

Earlier this week, there was news that Phillies outfielder C.J. Henry was no longer is going to play baseball and planned to leave the Phillies organization soon.  The news is premature, as Henry has cooled the fires down somewhat, but has admitted that he might join his younger brother Xavier on a college basketball team in 2008-09 if baseball hasn't worked out.

So far, it's looking that way.

Henry was drafted more on the basis of his gifts than his actual abilties.  Henry was thought to eventually be a future version of Gary Sheffield with his extreme power potential and speed.  Unfortunately, Henry's swing is long and he has struggled to hit advanced pitching.  He's inadequate as a defender and is now on this third position change, now playing left field.

Should Henry opt out, his original contract provides for eight semesters of tuition at $15,000 per semester under baseball scholarship's plan.  Henry's basketball prowess is still said to be high and he would essentially be able to name his program and try and join as a walk on.

Just another reason to blame Pat Gillick for not getting enough in return for Abreu.

The Rangers Report

Record As Of Mary 14, 2007

15-22, Fourth In The American League West

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Of The Week That Was

The Good

• Michael Young - The Franchise is hitting .325 with 2 home runs and 8 RBI's in the last 10 games.
• C.J. Wilson - The Blue Gloved Lefty has been almost unhittable this season and is sitting with a 2.87 ERA in 14 appearances and is making his case to be the closer after this season, as I don't think either Otsuka or Gagne will be returning at the end of the season.
• Gerald "Wheels" Laird - The Rangers' catcher has hit .294 in the last 10 games and has raised his average from a pitiful .169 to a slightly more respectable .216.  Plus he beat A-Rod at home in New York.
• Mark Teixeira - Big Tex is heating up and is hitting over .400 in the past 10 games, while hitting 3 home runs and riving in 12.
• Hank Blalock - Hammering Hank is heating up again.  We've seen this from Hank before, but it's always good to see Blalock contributing.
• Eric Hurley and John Whittleman - The Rangers' April players of the month are tearing up the minors and could be in line for promotions to Triple A and High A respectively come July.

The Bad

• Brad Wilkerson - Windmill Wilk is now down to hitting .229 on the season and is 7th on the Rangers in K's.

The Ugly

• Ian Kinsler - The Rangers' second baseman has hit .091 with 1 homer and 3 RBI's in the past 10 games and has made some terrible errors.
• Victor Diaz and Nelson Cruz - The Rangers' Right Field Options are rapidly playing themselves toward demotion.
• Francisco Cruceta - Shortly after giving him props in the Rangers' Report, Cruceta has been suspended for 50 games for performance enhancing drug.

Gyro-Mania In Arlington

Though Daisuke Matsuzaka has stated that he doesn’t throw the gyroball, the pitch has been doing wonders for Rangers reliever C.J. Wilson.  Wilson said he used the gyro to strike out Bobby Abreu during his 3 1/3 innings of shutout relief in the Rangers' 6-2 loss to the Yankees on Wednesday.  Wilson also used the pitch against Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis.  For those that have forgotten, Wilson learned the pitch in Spring Training. Apparently, when the pitch is thrown by a lefty, it moves up and away from a right-handed hitter, and Wilson has incorporated it into his repertoire. 

Top 30 Rangers Prospects – 26 Through 30

Continuing our look at the Rangers' top prospects, here are prospects 26 through 30.

26 –Danny Ray Herrera (LHP)

• DOB:  10/21/84
• Drafted:  45th Round, 2006, University Of New Mexico
• 2007 Club: Bakersfield Blaze (High A)
• Height/Weight: 5-7/145
• Bats/Throws:  L/L
• The Skinny:  Danny Ray Herrera is one of those players that didn’t wow people with his stuff, but he’s a very successful pitcher in his own right.  Herrera didn't pitch much like a 45th-rounder, as the former University of New Mexico star appeared in 17 games, 14 of which came in the California League, and finished with a 4-3 record with a 1.45 ERA in 62 innings. He racked up 72 K’s and didn't allow a home run while in the homer happy California League.  For those that argue that he’s not a high quality talent, consider the fact that he was a very successful pitcher at a park that played very much like an early Coors Field. 
• Aresenal:  Herrera doesn’t have overpowering stuff, as I believe his fastball tops off at 90, but his off-speed pitches are excellent and Herrerra does such a great job of changing speeds and using pinpoint control to induce groundballs, mostly off on a filthy curveball-changeup hybrid that is near unhittable.  
• Negatives:  Herrera’s options are limited, which means he’s a surefire bet to be a bullpen guy.
• Projection: Low.  Herrera’s pretty much a finished product.
• In A Perfect World, He Is: A dynamite setup man.
• 2007 Course Of Action:  Herrera was retained in Extended Spring Training, but has reported to the Blaze, where he is a member of the pen.

27 – Doug Mathis (RHP)

• DOB:  06/07/83
• Drafted:  13th Round, 2005, University Of Missouri
• 2007 Club: Frisco Roughriders (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/220
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Mathis had been previously drafted by the Dodgers in the 34th round in 2002 and the Mariners 31st round pick in 2003 while at Central Arizona Junior College.  Mathis had strong numbers at Central Arizona Junior College, maintaining a 1.35 ERA in 18 games for Central Arizona, before transferring to Missouri for the 2005 season and posting a 5-4 record with a 3.27 ERA in 21 games, including 11 starts. Since then, he’s been aggressively promoted, beginning with a debut in Spokane in 2005, where he lead all Rangers minor leaguers in 2005 with a 2.68 ERA.  He then kipped Clinton and started the 2006 season in Bakersfield (High-A), where after a rough start, he ended the year with a 4.18 ERA, good for 5th in the California League, and was then a late season call-up to the Frisco Roughriders, where he responded with a 3.60 ERA in 10 innings. 
• Aresenal:  Mathis has developed a respectable four pitch mix with a fastball and slider, which were always solid and have been since he was drafted, but he’s added a plus curveball and a changeup and commands all of them very well.  He has also apparently added 4-5 mph to his velocity. 
• Negatives:  Mathis has been aggressively pushed since he has arrived in the organization.  While that seems to be par for the course as a college pitcher, I wonder if the Rangers are risking blowing out Mathis’ arm with all the promotion.
• Projection: Low.  Mathis really didn’t have much room to grow.
• In A Perfect World, He Is: A back of the rotation starter
• 2007 Course Of Action:  Mathis was surprisingly promoted to Triple A in the offseason, which is a questionable decision at best, considering how hard they have promoted him.  He was destroyed and demoted to Frisco, where he has been solid.

28 – Travis Metcalf (3B)

• DOB:  8/17/82
• Drafted:  11th Round, 2004, Kansas
• 2007 Club: Frisco Roughriders (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/200
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Metcalf had a solid year after he was drafted in 2005, hitting .291 with 22 homers and 94 RBI’s with the Bakersfield Blaze.  It looked like Metcalf would possibly rocket through the system and maybe try to challenge for a bench spot with the big club by the end of this year.  However, Metcalf had a less than satisfactory year with the Roughriders in 2006, hitting .221 with only 8 homers and 37 RBI’s.  Metcalf needs a big turnaround this year to get himself back to legitimate prospect status.
• Assets:  Metcalf has legitmiate power in his bat, as seen from his stats going all the way back to his days with the University of Kansas.  He’s also a pretty good defensive third baseman.
• Negatives:  Metcalf’s swing is long and he’s impatient, leading to a great deal of strikeouts.  While that is somewhat negatable in the majors, he’s never going to be a guy that hits for a high average.  He’s also prone to making some throwing errors at third.
• Projection:  Low.  Metcalf is probably not going to improve on his physical gifts as he is going to improve on the mental side, such as decision making, pitch selection and the like.  That will only come with playing time, so don’t expect Metcalf to sit anytime soon.  He projects to be, in fact, very much like former Ranger third baseman Dean Palmer.
• In A Perfect World, He Is: A slugging third baseman that strikes out a whole lot.  Again, the Palmer comparisons are uncanny.
• 2007 Course Of Action:  Metcalf returned to Double A in hopes of strengthening his resume and regaining some of his prospect status.  So far, it appears to be working, as he's currently hitting .283 with 5 bombs and 22 RBI's, while showing some semblance of plate discipline.  His OPS is currently a studly .821

29 – Anthony Webster (LF)

• DOB:  4/10/83
• Drafted:  15th Round, 2001, Tennessee High School (White Sox)
• 2007 Club: Frisco (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/197
• Bats/Throws:  L/R
• The Skinny:  Webster, obtained from Chicago as part of the Carl Everett deal, has loads of tools.  Unfortunately, only recently has he been able to put some of them together.  He had a breakout of sorts this past season and hit a combined .288 with 8 home runs and 38 RBI’s.
• Assets:  Webster has plus speed on the bases and is a gifted athlete.  He’s got some semblance of plate discipline.
• Negatives:  Webster was hoped to be able to take to centerfielder, where his bat would look better, but he lacks the range and instincts to play center.  His arm limits him to left field, but he has little power to be a starter at the position.  Unless he becomes the second coming of Ichiro Suzuki, he’s not going to be a starter.
• Projection: Low.  Any sort of projection that Webster could have developed should have developed by now.
• In A Perfect World, He Is: A fourth outfielder
• 2007 Course Of Action:  Webster was only recently assigned to Double A Frisco, where he needs to be able to force his way back up to Triple A for any sort of major league look at the end of the season.

30 – Armando Galarraga (RHP)

• DOB:  1/15/82
• Signed: Venezuela, 2001 (Expos)
• Likely 2007 Club: Frisco (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-4/180
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Galarraga was the prospect sent to Texas along with Terrmel Sledge and Brad Wilkerson for Alfonso Soriano back in 2005 and he had just gotten off of a breakout year in which he went  6-8 with a 3.80 ERA with 137 strikeouts and 44 alks in 156 innings between high Class A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, but was destroyed in the Rangers’ system and fell all the way down to Rookie Ball.  Despite that, Galarraga still has some upside.  He was one of the Nationals top prospects back in 2005.
• Assets:  Galarraga has always had an electric arm.  He throws a fastball that clocks in the low to mid 90’s and has some movement.  He couples it with a sharp slider that is a solid out pitch.  His delivery is pretty even and overall he looks pretty good on the mound.
• Negatives:  Aside from the injury issue, Galarraga’s changeup is a below average pitch and keeps him from possibly being anything more than a fifth starter slash swingman.  There’s also the question as to whether or not he can handle a starters workload.
• Projection: Low.  Galarraga’s injuries appear to be behind him.  All he’s got to do now is prove that he’s over them.
• In A Perfect World, He Is: A back of the rotation starter or a capable swingman
• 2007 Course Of Action:  The Rangers are hoping it was injury that came to bite Galarraga’s season and have returned him to Frisco, where they hope he can give starting another shot. 

That's all for this week.  See you all soon.

Let’s see where the hat goes today…

Oh, these guys.

New York Yankees

The Yankees again won their division and again were knocked out of the playoffs.  But instead of splurging on expensive free agents like Barry Zito and others, the Yankees instead showed restrain, dealing Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield for prospects that are able to contribute soon.  Though they did spend on some nice things (Kei Igawa and Andy Pettitte), this Yankee team seems to be determined to depend more on the youth in the system instead of players from former competitors that would cost a pretty penny to acquire.  Whether or not this will mean a return to the World Series remains to be seen.

Starting Rotation

1. Chien Ming Wang (RHP) – Wang emerged as the Yankees’ ace last season and not only put up a Cy Young caliber season, but he was also very durable and was dominant in the post-season.  Wang will head up the Yankees’ staff this season, but I’m not sold on him staying durable for the entire season.  Expect a missed start or two, but expect a good season from him as well.
2. Mike Mussina (RHP) – Moose returns on a bargain basement contract to help bolster the Yankees rotation and finally win himself a ring.  Moose still can eat up innings and will keep his team in games, but his stuff is starting to decline a bit.  However, his control is still superb, helping to counterbalance the loss in raw power.  Moose should be good to go, but again, as with Wang and new rotation mate Pettitte, Mussina will likely miss a start or two.
3. Andy Pettitte (LHP) – Pettitte returns to New York (he should have never left, but take that issue up with Steinbrenner) after three years in Houston.  Pettitte isn’t the same pitcher he was with the Yankees during the Dynasty, but he’s still very good and will be a solid middle of the rotation presence for New York.  The problem is that Pettitte is beginning to experience some durability issues, making it almost certain he’ll miss a start or two this year.
4. Carl Pavano (RHP) – Depending on Pavano this high in the rotation is a stretch, with the problems that he’s had, plus the fact he hasn’t pitched in over a year at the major league level.  For all I know, he could be a comeback player of the year candidate.  But the odds are a lot higher that Pavano should go back to the National League, in which case the Rockies figure to come calling, a deal that could work out well for New York, as the Rockies have some positional players that the Yankees would need to help replace some of their own soon.
5. Kei Igawa (LHP) – Igawa is the other major Japanese import that got a lot of attention this past season.  Igawa isn't the stud that Matsuzaka is; in fact, there's doubt that Igawa will be anything more than a competent setup man or middle reliever.  But the Igawa did lead his league in strikeouts and posted an ERA in the mid 3 region or so.For now, Igawa is going to be in the rotation as the number five starter.

Bullpen

• Mariano Rivera (Closer) – Rivera enters what could be his final season as a Yankee, as concerns about his age and durability are starting to come into the conversation, despite another season in which he could have been considered for a Cy Young Award.  Rivera should again be solid, provided he’s not abused by Joe Torre after he loses confidence in yet another reliever.
• Kyle Farnsworth (Setup Man) – Farnsworth was less than satisfactory as a setup man, and definitely didn’t provide the security the Yankees hoped for in case Rivera went down.  
• Scott Proctor (RHP) – Proctor was a solid reliever, but he’s absolutely abused by Joe Torre last season, leading relievers in innings logged.  He’s going to have some setback this year as the fatigue from last year comes back to bite him, but that’s not a reason to give up on him.  He’s going to have a bright future, possibly as Rivera’s heir (unless they make the incredibly stupid decision to go after Frankie Rodriguez when he hits the market.)
• Mike Myers (LHP) – The bullpen’s lone lefty is really only a one out guy.  That’s bad.
• Darrell Rasner (RHP) – Ranser was pretty good in some starts, but was also very good in relief.  The Yankees hope that this former Nationals farmhand will eventually be a fifth starter/swingman.  Stuffwise, Rasner gets decent movement on his 90-mph fastball and showed an improved curve last season. 
• Luis Vizcaino (RHP) – Vizcaino joins his fourth team in four seasons, as Arizona acquired him in the December 2005 deal that sent Javier Vazquez to the White Sox.  Vizcaino is a power pitcher who can struggle with his command at times and could help bolster the setup corps.
• Brian Bruney (RHP) – Bruney was obtained off of the Diamondback’s scrap heap and was dominant in 19 games last season.  I like him to make the squad, as I think that he could be a great setup man in the future.

Starting Lineup

1. Johnny Damon (CF) – Damon was a solid presence in the Yankee lineup last season, hitting well at leadoff while showing some power at the top as well.  Damon was also solid at centerfield last season, vastly improving the outfield defense that had been declining for several years as Bernie Williams began to decline.  Damon should be solid, but his terrible September bears some notice, be it from the toll that his style of play takes on him or from nagging injuries.  Hence, it’s best that the Yankees be careful with him, as he’s not getting any younger.
2. Derek Jeter (SS) – Jeter had a solid season last season, staying in contention for a batting title as well as an MVP award for most of the season until a pair of Twins made off with both.  Jeter would have sacrificed them both for a chance to go to another World Series, which didn’t happen.  Jeter should again be solid at the second spot, and his defense will again be Golden (pun intended), but the A-Rod situation bears watching, as I firmly believe that Jeter should have spoke up last season to defend his teammate, as he did with Chuck Knoblauch and Jason Giambi.  There comes a certain point in time where you have to put some animosities behind you and do what you have to in order to help the team.  That’s what comes with being a Captain.  And that’s precisely what Jeter failed to do.
3. Alex Rodriguez (3B) – In Rodriguez’s defense, he had a solid year last year, hitting. 290 with 35 Homers and 121 RBI’s.  However, his defense slipped last season, whether it was due to psychological issues or something else and he’s got to strongly work to get himself back to where he was on defense.  He’s still a capable offensive player and is in his prime, but Yankee fans are hard on Rodriguez, largely because they view him as a mercenary type player and not a “True Yankee” (whatever the #### that means.)  A lot of Rodriguez’s flak he causes himself (life coach, his OCD like desire to keep a squeaky clean image), but some of it could have been diffused by Jeter, which wasn’t.  Regardless of all that, Rodriguez will be under a bigger microscope this season because of his agent, who put in an Opt Out Clause that would allow him to opt out of his contract after the 2007 season (which I fully would have expected him to exercise had he remained in Texas.)  We’ll see what happens…
4. Jason Giambi (DH) – This is one contract New York would want back.  When signed, it was hoped that Giambi would be able to provide the offensive firepower to replace Tino Martinez at first.  Five years, one return of Martinez, a stomach parasite and a mysterious apology later, Giambi is now a DH, as his defense has regressed from “bad” to “horrific.”   A .253 hitter in 139 games for New York last year, Giambi is also starting to wear down and hasn’t played a full season in years.  Though the Yankees hope he’ll become their version of David Ortiz, it’s likely that Giambi will play 120 to 130 games, the other 32 games being interleague or games where Matsui or Abreu are in the lineup to allow Melky Cabrera to play. 
5. Hideki Matsui (LF) – Matsui may actually be better suited in right, as his arm isn’t the strongest, but this is where he’s listed and where he’s likely to remain.  Matsui was limited to 51 games after a fluke wrist injury, but he came back and hit well.  He’s not a guy who has a ton of power, but another 20 homer season with over 100 RBI’s in the lineup isn’t unreasonable to expect from him. 
6. Bobby Abreu (RF) – A classic throwback to the Yankees of the 90’s, Abreu works the count, takes walks, hits for contact and some power and plays a good right field, plus has some speed on the baselines.  In Philly, Abreu was depended on to be a run producer.  Here, Abreu is allowed to do his thing.  The best part is, the Yankees got him for pocket change.  He’s a steal and another solid bat in the linep.
7. Jorge Posada (C) – Posada had a solid year least year, putting up his best numbers since 2003.  Posada is still a solid defensive catcher, but at his age, the Yankees need to start searching for his successor, as he’s going to start declining seriously after this year.  As far as his long term future is concerned, Posada could switch to backup catcher/DH, but the DH spot filled by Giambi, meaning that the Yankees are going to have to make a hard decision as soon as the year is up.
8. Robinson Cano (2B) – How often do you find a guy hitting 8th in the lineup contending for a batting title?  Only in New York.  Cano has become a solid young player, playing a solid second base while looking like a player that will hit over .300 for his career.  Cano also has some thunder in his bat, plus can steal a few.  He should be hitting toward the top of the order.  But in this lineup, he adds some much dreaded depth.
9. Doug Mientkiewicz (1B) – Minky was brought aboard to play first mostly on his defensive skills.  While the decision remains questionable, as Mientkiewicz has regressed a bit defensively over the years, the question remains whether or not he’ll hit and be no better than the pitcher at the 9th spot.  Plus there’s the injury factor to take into consideration as well.  We’ll see how this works out.

Bench

• Melky Cabrera (OF) – Cabrera was a revelation last season, stepping in after Gary Sheffield, then Matsui went down, and provided a spark of life not seen in the Yankees in some time.  Cabrera doesn’t hit for a ton of power, but he’s got some solid hitting ability and is good in the field.  The Yankees will keep him with the big club because he can play all three outfield positions, but long term, he’s going to be a regular in one of the corners.
• Miguel Cairo (UTIL) – Cairo can’t hit worth a damn, but his main value is that he’s so versatile.  Cairo can play second base, shortstop and third base well, while is a passable defender at first and in the outfield. 
• Josh Phelps (1B) – Will likely make the team, or New York wouldn’t have spent the money on him during the Rule V Draft.  Phelps has the potential to hit for some power and can play a decent first base.  He’s at the very least a better option over perennial underachiever Andy Phillips.
• Wil Nieves (C) – The favorite to win the backup catcher job, Nieves is a powerless hitter that can hit for average while performing well above average behind the bag.  But he’s not an heir to Posada by any means.

Down On The Farm…

The Yankees have managed to acquire quite a bit of talent in recent years, mostly due to their spending big on talents that have fallen in the draft due to signability, plus some good scouting on the international market.  The recent trades have also bolstered their pool of talent, which is now regarded to be some of the best in the majors.  However, there’s a problem; most of the talent is pitching.  Outside of Jose Tabata, who is years from contributing to the big club, there are almost no hitters.

• Philip Hughes (RHP) – Hughes is the best pitching prospect in the game.  He’s not only got size, but he’s got the mound presence to go with it.  His stuff is ace quality, starting with a mid 90’s fastball with good movement and a hard curveball that is major league ready.  He’s got a decent changeup and his mechanics are almost flawless.  He hasn’t proven that he can handle a major league workload yet, as the Yankees have been careful with him, but Hughes was dominant last year, enough that all of baseball has now taken notice of him.  Though the Yankees want Hughes to spend at least one more year at Triple A, a dominant Spring Training could make one of the starters expendable.  And even then, he’ll be in the Stadium by September.
• Chris Britton (RHP) – Obtained for Jaret Wright from the Orioles, Britton will likely become a part of the Yankees’ future bullpen.  Britton has a low 90’s fastball and a nice, tight curve and throws for strikes.  The only problem is that he’s been injury prone in his career and is a big man, if you know what I mean.  Still, he’s got a future with the Yankees as they try to get young and save up their pennies for some of the bigger free agents coming down the road (cough *Johan Santana* cough.)
• Sean Henn (LHP) – Henn isn’t looked at as a starter anymore, but he could be a solid lefty reliever and could displace Mike Myers if Henn is able to strikeout righties as well as lefties.
• Russ Ohlendorf (RHP) – Obtained from the Diamondbacks in the Randy Johnson Trade, Ohlendorf went 10-8, 3.29 with a 125 K’s and 29 walks in 27 starts at Double A Tennessee. He’s got great size and his stuff isn’t bad.  He throws a hard 89-94 mph sinker, a solid changeup and a decent slider.  Lefties murder him, and because of his slider, he may be better off in the pen.
• Stephen Jackson (RHP) – Another good sized right hander that has some solid stuff.  However, unlike Ohlendorf, who can at least entertain notions of being a starter, Jackson’s future is definitely in the pen, as he’s got four pitches, but only two, a sinker and a slider, are major league worthy.
• Eric Duncan (1B) – Duncan was a first round pick that New York may have ruined due to their aggressive promotion of him last year.  Duncan should have remained in Trenton instead of being sent to Columbus last year and getting demoted and the prospect that returned to Double A was shell-shocked enough that he needed time to recover from the experience.  Duncan is still young and the power potential is still there, but it’s beginning to look like he may be a bust.  Duncan will remain in Triple A, but a solid season could earn him a call up, be it as a regular or as a possible trade piece.
• Humberto Sanchez (RHP) – A big pitcher, Sanchez was the jewel of the trade that sent Sheffield to Detroit.  Sanchez has good arm strength and his stuff is great.  His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and touches 97-98, and his slider gives him a second plus pitch.  However, Sanchez has some durability issues, as he’s never thrown more than 123 innings in a season due to various injuries and conditioning issues.  Sanchez will be a Triple A, but could get a look as the season progresses.
• J. Brent Cox (RHP) – Another possible heir to Rivera, Cox is a polished college reliever who dominated Double A as a closer.  Cox induces groundballs thanks to his 88-92 mph sinker and hard-tilting slider, and he’s got a quick delivery as well.  However, many feel that Cox lacks pure dominating stuff and he may be better off as a setup man.

In Conclusion…

The Yankees have enough talent to win the division.  Whether or not the talent is enough to advance to the next round is a difference story…

Final Standing:  First In The American League East.

Okay, this is old news as far as the Mets attempts to acquire Green from the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Well, today they finally did it and traded Green for a Class AAA pitcher.  Here's a look at the grades for the trade.

Snakes Side Of The Trade

Purely a salary dump.  I'm surprise that Arizona got away with the Mets taking as much of the contract in return.   This gives Arizona the payroll flexability that they sorely needed along with allowing them to take measures to shore up the rotation and bullpen next season.

In return, they got Evan MacLane, a 23 year old southpaw who can put up decent numbers at a starter.  He's 8-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 19 games and has a nearly 2:1 ration of K's to Walks.  He's not bad, but he's definately a project player.  Still, he's not a bad return for a salary dump and could develop into something good if the DBacks put some work on him.

Arizona Grade:  A

Mets Side Of The Trade

In return, the Mets get a very good (if expensive) right fielder in Green.  Green is experiencing a downslide in his career, not unusual for a 33 year old player, but can still do very well.  He's much better than Endy Chavez, a utility guy, and Lastings Milledge, who seems to be having some trouble adjusting to more advanced pitching.  And while MacLane didn't figure into their long term plans, the Mets managed to use their financial strength to work out a deal, similar to what the Yankees did when they got Bobby Abreu from Philly for one good prospect and a bag of balls.  There is only one issue I have with this trade.  The Mets, with a huge payroll already, are going to be sorely hampered this off-season when Barry Zito hits the market.  More on that on Friday Morning Closer....

New York Grade:  B

Friday Morning Closer

Here’s my six pitch outing for the day.

Roy Oswalt Is Pissed

The Astros have managed tick off ace righthander Roy Oswalt when it came out that his name was being shopped around at the trade deadline.  According to sources in the industry, Oswalt had been offered to Baltimore in a package along with Adam Everett and Willy Taveras for Miguel Tejada.  The Orioles, in typical Orioles fashion, further screwed up the situation by offering Oswalt to the Texas Rangers and the New York Mets.  Despite being somewhat diplomatic, it’s obvious that Oswalt was miffed at the fact that he was even considered being moved.  

Short term, the Astros now have to deal with a fractured clubhouse with Oswalt now angry, Lidge wondering about his future and Morgan Ensberg, despite being glad at remaining an Astro, wondering at his future.  Oswalt is under contract until the end of the 2007 season and has stated that he would like to test free agency.  What this means is that the Astros can no longer expect a discount on Oswalt to remain in Houston long term.  And despite the fact that Oswalt hoped to remain an Astro for his career, he may now be more open to pitching elsewhere in the future.  There are a lot of egos to sooth for the Astros in a season that’s beginning to look lost.

Are The Red Sox Becoming The Angels?

Two things that the Red Sox have in common with the Angels this season.

One – They both highly value their prospects .

Two – They both are reluctant to get rid of them.

With the Yankees bringing in both Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle, plus getting Craig Wilson to platoon at first base, the Red Sox needed to make a move to keep pace.

And all they did was trade for Brian Corey.

The Red Sox could have used Julio Lugo to play at shortstop, giving them a much more potent bat without sacrificing much of the defense.  They also could have traded for another pitcher that wouldn’t have cost too much, perhaps Mark Redman from the Royals or someone else.

Instead, the Red Sox are now faced with having to contend with their available roster, which is talented, but flawed.  Outside of Schilling and Beckett, the Red Sox are faced with having to put out young Jon Lester (who can’t last more than six), David Wells (not sure if he can make it past five), and Jason Johnson (who is 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA since he arrived at Fenway.)  This is where Tim Wakefield was so valuable.  He was able to eat innings and take some pressure off the bullpen.  He was also able to push the weaker pitchers to the back, thus keeping Boston’s rotation weaknesses safe.  This is no longer an option now.

Do I think it was worth holding onto Craig Hansen and Jon Lester?  Yes.  But the Red Sox had needs that they had to fill and were they willing to dip into the system and make a trade, they would have a better change of fending off the Yankees.  Instead, they’re having to hold onto their post-season hopes and pray that the staff doesn’t fracture any worse that it already is. 

Now Closing, Brett Tomko?

Brett Tomko, who is now finishing his first week as a reliever, has said that his goal is to eventually be a closer.  Tomko was quick to add he isn't targeting anyone else's job, with Danys Baez gone, Eric Gagne likely not returning, and Takashi Saito not a long-term replacement, Tomko could have a crack at the job in spring training if he returns.

So far, that hasn't been a problem. In three one-inning relief appearances, Tomko has yet to allow a run and has given up just one hit.  I’m not sure if Tomko can close, he really doesn’t fit the profile of most closers, but with the market on closers steadily increasing, the Dodgers couldn’t do any worse than to give him a shot.  At the very least, if Tomko succeeds, they could slowly integrate rookie Jonathan Broxton into the closers role as a setup man, just as the Yankees did with Mariano Rivera when he setup for John Wetteland.

Kenny Rogers Possibly To Lose His Rotation Spot

Two weeks after the All-Star break, there is talk that Kenny Rogers is in danger of losing his roster spot.

Before the break, Rogers was 11-3 with a 3.85 ERA.  Since the break, he’s 0-2 with a 10.34 ERA.  And while the Tigers are still enjoying a 7 ½ game lead in their division, they aren’t taking any chances. 

I could have told the Tigers about that.

The fact is, Kenny has always fallen off in the second inning.  Part of it is age, but part of it is that Kenny has long put in so much effort into his games that he pays for it later in the season.  Hence, Detroit should not complain about Kenny’s slump.  It’s natural and, had they done their due diligence, was going to happen no matter what.

Sheffield To Play First Base?

In one of the most astounding moves I’ve seen, Gary Sheffield is reportedly agreeing to switch to first base in order to accommodate Bobby Abreu.  This move would give the Yankees a platoon of Sheffield and Giambi, both of whom can switch positions on the list according to the needs of the other.  Sheffield is reportedly already working on first base drills with Don Mattingly and has already ordered a first base fielding glove.

If Sheff were to play first, he’d probably play very well there.  Sheffield is a pretty good defender if he gives it the effort.  Say if Sheffield plays first once he returns in September and fares well in that month and possibly the post-season if the Yankees make it. The Yankees would have to pick up his option on his contract.

And can you imagine a lineup that looks like this:

CF – Johnny Damon

SS – Derek Jeter

1B – Gary Sheffield

DH – Jason Giambi

LF – Hideki Matsui

RF – Bobby Abreu

3B – Alex Rodriguez

C – Jorge Posada

2B – Robinson Cano

That would be hell on pitchers.

Also, it would allow the Yankees to pursue solid pitching, such as Barry Zito.  Because, speaking frankly, next year is likely the last year the Yankees can squeeze out of their staff.  In fact, there is a column idea in that.  Look for it next week.

Where In The World Is…Jeff Bagwell!

Where have you gone, Jeff Bagwell?

Oh.  Italy.

Jeff Bagwell is currently vacationing around several places, most notably San Diego.  And while Bagwell hasn’t had another surgery to repair his shoulder, he’s probably not going to do so, officially ending his career.  Apparently, for the first time in four or five years, Bagwell is not in excruciating pain. And while Bagwell could undergo the surgery and try to come back with another team, he does not want to.  Plus, with the Astros still contesting the court judgment about his salary, he’s not going to ever play for the Astros again.  Thus, GM Tim Purpura is contemplating bringing Bagwell onto the staff with a personal services contract, bringing him to the same capacity as Nolan Ryan.

Should that happen?  Yes, it should.  That fact is, this is the first time I’ve ever seen the Astros go through as many PR flops as I’ve ever seen.  The whole ugly mess with Bagwell, the fallout with the trade deadline with Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt, plus the team’s terrible performance has given the organization a black eye in several ways.  If the Astros were to bring back one of the two men who had long stayed a part of the franchise through thick and thin, it would bring back some goodwill to the organization.

This just went over the wire.

The Yankees and Phillies have a tentative agreement to ship Bobby Abreu and his hefty contract, plus RHP Corey Lidle to New York for a foursome of prospects, shortstop CJ Henry,  RHP Matt Smith, and a pair of others, none of whom has the last name Tabata or Hughes.

This deal is still tentative, likely because of the dollars and cents involved, plus the selection of the final two players.

New York Side Of The Deal

Abreu will give the Yankees' offense yet another theat in the lineup.  While Abreu hasn't hit for power much this season, he still gets on base and is still a excellent fielder.  As for Lidle, he'll give the Yankees another option in the rotation other than the ineffective Sidney Ponson and Shawn Chacon.

The only real loss of the prospects will be Henry, who is a gifted athlete who had the potential to succeed Derek Jeter in the future.  That no longer appears to be the case, so the Yankees will likely draft another position player in the future.

All in all, a great deal in the short term for the Yankees, as it should give them just enough to challenge the White Sox for the Wild Card.

Yankee Grade:  A

Philadelphia Side Of The Deal

Pat Gillick was able to move Abreu's massive salary and gained a good prospect in C.J. Henry.  Though the other prospects won't amount to much (Smith is already 27 and old for a prospect), he's got a very good prospect that could blossom in the future.  More importantly, he gained payroll flexability to make some moves in the off-season that will pay dividends in the future.

Phillies Grade: B+

Free Agency 2007 Ramifications

This deal will also have long lasting Free Agency effects during the offseason.

First of all, Abreu going to New York means that Alfonso Soriano will not be back in pinstripes.  The Yankees now have three outfielders signed to long term deals (Matsui, Damon, Abreu) and an established DH (Giambi).   It was assumed that Soriano would return to the Yankees.  This deal kills his chances.

However, don't think that Soriano still won't go to New York.  The Mets will be in need of an outfielder soon, with Cliff Lee not being retained after this season.  This all depends on Lastings Milliedge and whether or not the organization decides that he has no future in the organization.

Second, this deal also means that Gary Sheffield will not be back in New York next season, again for the reasons of the outfield and DH.  Sheffield's options are now extremely limited and it's likely he'll have to accept a deal far less than what he was hoping for.  He's no longer healthy enough to be an outfielder, which rules out the National League.  Hence, it's AL or Bust.