Now that the Santana deal is all but over, it's time to see what exactly will happen next.

I can tell you this much.  A lot more things are going to fall into place now that the deal has been done.

Here's what is likely going to happen:

1.  Bedard Deal Likely Going To Happen Soon

With the Santana deal likely gone, the Orioles should decide in the next couple of days whether or not to accept a deal from Seattle that will send Adam Jones and three or four prospects in exchange for their ace.  It would be a good deal for the Orioles, who would gain a franchise centerfielder, more pitching depth with Chris Tillman likely headed in the deal, as well as a potential closer in George Sherill, all of whom are named in the deal.  As for the Mariners, it's a lot of farm depth to give up, which I'd be hesitant to do for a palyer likely to test free agency in two years.  And even then, there isn't a guarnatee that Bedard would put Seattle over the top with the Angels and their strong staff in the divison.

2.  Final Decision On Sabathia To Be Made Soon

Look for also the Indians to decide once and for all on the fate of C.C. Sabathia, who is entering his walk year and likely looking for a contract similar to what Santana will get.  Sabathia recently refused a 4 year, $70 million extension and wants a lot of money for a lot of years.  While Sabathia is an excellent young pitcher, his condition habits have to give one pause.  The union will also be pressuring Sabathia to hit free agency, due to their desire to increase player salaries all around.  Personally, I think the Indians are going to ride out the year before seeing Sabathia likely sign with the Yankees, who covet Sabathia and asked the Indians about a trade midseason.

3.  Remaining Free Agent Starters To Find Homes

Also, it's about now that we'll the remaining big free agent starters find homes.  Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez and others should have their phones ringing now that the Santana and Bedard dramas are nearing their respective ends.  This may work out to the benefit of several teams, as Colon, Lohse and Hernandez have all been looking for multiple years in contracts.  After having to wait for a while, they may be more willing to settle for fewer years.

4.  Blame to Be Assigned In The Bronx

Now that the actually Santana trade has been agreed to, look for blame to be assigned among the Yankees staff. 

Hank Steinbrenner will likely blame Brian Cashman for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal that could have seen Santana in pinstripes, saying that while prospects are fine and good, acquiring a legitimate ace of the staff outwieghed any possible risk of said prospects coming back to haunt them.

Cashman will likely disagree, stating that the price in prospects was simply too high.  However, when you consider that you were, essentially, sacrificng Chein Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera and what appears to be now Ian Kennedy for Santana, the sacrifice really should have been an easy one.  Say yes.

The fighting will likely turn ugly and should provide further proof that Cashman is out of New York at the end of the year.

5.  Crisp Situation Now Front Burner

Now that the Santana deal has been resolved, look for Boston to finally decide what to do with Coco Crisp.

While the entire Santana drama was playing out, many of the spots that were logical places for the Red Sox to send Crisp to addressed their centerfield needs via trade or free agency, resulting in a much smaller market for his services.

Now, really, there are two places where the Red Sox could concievably go to shop Crisp around, three if you count Oakland and their sudden dearth of prospects, two if you realize that Oakland has no intention of shopping any of them just now.

Minnesota is the place where, ironically, the Red Sox could ask if they're interested.  The Twins, now in full fledged rebuilding mode, could offer back a bullpen arm, possibly Jesse Crain, though a package from Boston for Joe Nathan would be much more plausible.

The other place is Baltimore, which could use Crisp and has some minor league depth to deal from, if Boston would prefer a player that isn't as close to free agency and could develop into something promising.

Or the Red Sox could just hang onto Crisp, though that would likely result in a lot of resentment from Crisp, who wants to start.  Say all you want about choosing to start for a bad team or being a fourth outfielder for a great one.  Most people would still prefer a starting gig.

This could turn out ugly if nothing is resolved soon.

Coming up later today!  My Super Bowl Spread Plans!!!!!!!!!!!!

It’s that time again…

TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.

And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)

No matter.

Here's this year's edition.

Cooperstown Locks

Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in.  He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters.  There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.

Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy.  Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter.  His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978.  He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year.  I don’t agree with it, however.

Dark Horses

Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings.  His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season.   If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins.  He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in.  There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven.  Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.

Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career.  He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times.  People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats.  He also walked more than he struck out.  However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use.  Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal.  I feel she should get in.  The voters are divided so far.

####

Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in.  His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent.  However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant.  The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much.  Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.

Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins.  However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers.  John was a great pitcher for some time.  Why he’s not in is beyond me.

Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time.  Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in.  It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.

Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP.  Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power.  He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in.  He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point.  But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.

Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name.  Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him.  However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish.  Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.

Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history.  As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs.  He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby.  However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season.  He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.

The Hall of Very Good

Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials.  He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves.  He also won two batting titles.   Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players. 

Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John.  He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season.  However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit.  I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in.  He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.

Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era.  It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens.  He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot.  He could get in during his final year of eligibility. 

Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP.  A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started.  Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career.  Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later.  To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go.  Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.

Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers.  But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.

Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal.  He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.

Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213.  However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.

No Chance In Hell

Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota.  However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career.  Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him.  However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown.  His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.

Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers.  He shouldn’t be on here.  Who screens these things?

Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly.  This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.

David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot.  He was good for a long time, but was never great.  His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience.  But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.

Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more. 

Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.

Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part.  He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”

Jose Rijo – Okay, but never great.  Out.

Normally I love the guys from Baseball Prospectus and their various takes on the world of Baseball, but there are times when I do take issue with some of the opinions they write.

Like this recent piece that Joe Sheehan, writing for SI.com, indicating five trades that need to happen raised my ire.  Sheehan's words are in italics, mine are normal.

Red Sox trade CF Coco Crisp to the White Sox for 1B Chris Carter. Boston must unload Crisp, who was supplanted as the team's centerfielder by Jacoby Ellsbury during the ALCS. The Red Sox' every-day lineup is set for 2008, but they could use some depth among their hitting prospects as they move toward the end of the Manny Ramirez -- David Ortiz era. The White Sox are focused on the short term, as shown by their extending the contracts of veterans Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle. So 20-year-old first baseman Carter, who was third in the Class A Sally League with 25 homers, is expendable. Getting Crisp, 28, who is owed a very reasonable $11 million over the next two years, at a down moment would be smart shopping.

I would almost agree with this if the Red Sox on record hadn't already said they would target high talent in the lower minors.  With that in mind, the Red Sox would be more likely to target Faustino De Los Santos, a impact righthander in the White Sox's Low A affiliate.  That would probably kill the trade.

A more plausible trade would likely be with Texas, who could offer a young arm in Jake Brigham, a highly projectable right hander who is similar to Sox prospect Michael Bowden, or the Dodgers, who have a load of ammunition they could offer in return.

Rockies trade 3B Garrett Atkins to the Twins for RHPs Anthony Swarzak and Eduardo Morlan. Ian Stewart (.304/.379/.478 at Triple A Colorado Springs) is ready to take over at third base for Colorado, which should be looking to add strikeout pitchers to a staff heavy on contact guys. Minnesota has a glut of young pitchers and desperately needs to add a bat to help Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Swarzak, 22, a starter who projects as a mid-rotation guy, is buried in the Twins' system. Morlan, 21, struck out 12.6 men per nine innings as a reliever in high A ball and could be a 2008 version of closer Manny Corpas.

Actually, I'm all about that trade.  Sheehan nails this one.  It will never happen, however, as Minnesota stockpiles arms and never uses them, which has possibly killed several trades that could have helped the team.  Another thing is that Atkins is untradable thanks to the recent success and the fan backlash may not be desirable to the Rox.  Stewart is more likely to be traded and he could fetch a solid young arm in a trade.  One trade likely to be bandied about:  Stewart to New York for Ian Kennedy.

Orioles trade SS Miguel Tejada to the Blue Jays for OF Adam Lind, RHP Brandon League and LHP David Purcey. The Blue Jays' window is fast closing since they'll lose the services of Troy Glaus, A.J. Burnett and Frank Thomas after 2008. With the Yankees going through a transition, it may be '08 or never for the J.P. Ricciardi regime. Tejada would give Toronto a big offensive boost over the current shortstop, glove man John McDonald. The rebuilding Orioles won't get the Jays' best prospect (outfielder Travis Snider), but they would get three major-league-ready guys, at low cost.

Not Happening.  The Orioles could probably get a lot more for Tejada than Lind, a solid outfielder, Purcey, a okay, but not great lefty, and League, a setup man.  If they really wanted to shop Tejada, they could probably get something better from the Angels, likely 3B Brandon Wood, a Troy Glaus-esque third baseman and RHP Ervin Santana, who could be an ace if he gets out of LA.  A third prospect, possible Reggie WIllits, could go back in return and could be passable in center if they so chose.

Another option would be the Dodgers, who could sent back a package of CF Juan Pierre, 3B Andy LaRoche, and LF Andre Etheir.  EIther option would be a lot better than what Sheehan offers in his column.

Brewers trade SS Alcides Escobar to the Rangers for 3B Hank Blalock. Milwaukee could then move Ryan Braun, the first third baseman in 14 years with a sub-.900 fielding percentage, to rightfield, rightfielder Corey Hart to center and centerfielder Bill Hall to third base, where he'd platoon with Blalock, another high-split guy. That would put two players, Braun and Hall, in positions where they're better suited, while stretching Hart slightly. Blalock would provide a key lefty bat for a team that lists to the right. Meanwhile, with Escobar, 20, Texas G.M. Jon Daniels would add to his collection of prospects a glove-first shortstop who could eventually move Michael Young to third base.

Won't happen.  The Rangers already have a highly projectable shortstop in Elvis Andrus and a similar version of Escobar in Joaquin "The Machine" Arias.  They'd be more likely to add someone else that could play centerfield, or a highly projectable athlete.  If the Rangers were to trade Blalock, which likely won't happen because Blalock's value is low, they'd target someone like Crisp, actually, though a more realistic option would likely be Luke Scott of the Astros, who reporteldy have been thinking about using Wigginton at second.

Indians trade SS Jhonny Peralta to the Cubs for OF Matt Murton and RHP Sean Gallagher. Rather than move Peralta to second or third base to make room for Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland should trade him near the peak of his value for a much-needed corner-outfielder bat. The Cubs made do with fan fave Ryan Theriot at short this year, but Peralta, 25, is a clear upgrade. His below-average defense with the Tribe wouldn't be as much of a liability with the Cubs' high-strikeout, fly ball staff.

First of all, I don't think that Gallagher would be a good fit for the Jake, or the AL for that matter, so he's out.  Murton is a solid outfielder, but the Indians have David Dellucci on the team and rather than admit they made a mistake and move on, they'll likely stick him in left field next season as the starter.  Nice try, but this deal would be a disaster for the Indians, who would get a player with the same upside as Cliff Lee.  I really don't see why this would work out.

Tomorrow night, I'll post my own trades that should be done.

Try not to rip me too hard.

Top 15 Red Sox Prospects Tomorrow!

The Future Of The Catching Joe Mauer, The White Sox Selling Low After Buying High, and Melvin Mora Potentially On The Move

Moving Mauer

Recently, I read in a article by Jim Souhan advocating a move of Joe Mauer to third base.

I’m not going to post the article, it’s available there if you want to find it, but the gist of it stated that Mauer needs to be moved to third in order to keep his bat in the lineup, plus that he is too injury prone to remain behind the bag.

While Mauer clearly could be the best young catcher in the American League, he hasn't been able to stay on the field.  A four year vet, Mauer has only one complete season under his belt.  His other three, including this one, Mauer has missed time with one ailment or another and has suffered a hit in the clubhouse, where numerous veterens such as Justin Morneau, Mike Redmond, and Torii Hunter have played through one ailment or another.

Compounding all of this is Mauer's size.  Now 6-5, tall for a catcher, Mauer likely won't be able to stand up to the everyday wear and tear of being a catcher. 

This year has made it painfully evident that Mauer's bat is an integral part of the offense, as the entire Twins lineup was much more lackluster without it.  The departure of Mauer (as well as the decision to keep Matt Garza and company down in the minors while keeping Sidney Ponson and other retreads simply to keep the cost down in the future for the rookies) can be held directly responsible for the collapse of the Twins.

Twins lineups have become rather punchless in recent years, both a product of management's reluctance to splurge on a average bat in terms of trade or free agency as it is a testament to the failure of the Twins' farm system to develop any sort of power hitting prospect.  Morneau and Mauer aside, the Twins have been lacking in any sort of power presence and, while they have some pitching prospects to spare, they aren't interested in using some of their blocked prospects to trade for blocked positional players on other teams in hopes of possibly upgrading spots on their roster that scream for help (such as third base, where the Nick Punto experience has become a nightmare.)

Mauer would provide an excellent upgrade at third base, assuming he can play the position (which I think he can) and can split time at first base with Justin Morneau, who could use some time off at DH.  In fact, both players could use time at DH, where the Twins are even more enemic in terms of production.

Rumor has it that Mauer could be seeing time at all four positions coming into the year, where he would be able to catch, play first, third, and DH in order to allow the Twins to not only keep his bat in the lineup, but to preserve his health. 

This may turn out the best for Mauer, who is a fan favorite and more importantly, one of the parts that make the Twins go.

And if you need a example to see how moving from behind the plate can extend a career, consider the case of Craig Biggio, a former catcher who was also deemed to be unable to last through the rigors of catching.

Since the move, Biggio is now looking at a future at Cooperstown.

All in all, I'd say that this type of decision can pay off.

Selling Low On A Trio Of Sox

One year after making a series of deals that Kenny Williams said would keep the White Sox competitive and protect them from the inflating price of starting pitching, Williams is now looking on dumping three of the players he once held up as a sign of the future.

Right handers Nick Masset, David Aardsma and lefty Andy Sisco have all disappointed in some capacity or another and are a big reason for the bullpen's decline.  Only Aardsma has had any sort of success, mostly in April  and none of them merited September callups.  The reason for the trades is because of the fact that both Aardsma and Masset are out of options, so the Sox will lose them if they fail to earn spots with the big club next spring and Sisco has become such a disappointment that he likely won't even be kept as a situational lefty.  Masset and Sisco have since returned to starting, but neither has been stellar.

Of the three, Aardsma is likely the most attractive candidate, as he has closer's stuff and if placed in the right environment, he could flourish.  Masset was largely regarded in his time in Texas as a underachiever who has good stuff but can't put it together.  As for Sisco, a big part of his problem is that his command is so off, possibly because he was rushed by the Royals.  

Kenny Williams is hoping to get two relievers, one of them proven, in exchange for a pair of the trio.  I'd imagine that a system with an excess of relievers and a solid pitching coach could do well.  San Diego could be a decent fit to Masset, as would St. Louis.  Were I Washington or Florida, teams that could need a closer this off-season, I would also give a call for Aardsma.  Sisco is harder to nail down, as it's hard to nail down a fit.  Maybe a trade to the Pirates to convert him to starting could help, possibly in exchange for Jack Wilson's contract?

Mora May Be Pushed Out Of Baltimore

The acquistion of Steve Traschel may not only have given the Orioles someone to keep the rotation somewhat respectable, but also to maybe begin the process of Melvin Mora leaving the Orioles.

Moore is a slugging third baseman/left fielder that could provide roughly Mora's production at a fraction of the price.  Mora, despite still being productive, is an expensive player that will be entering his decline phase soon.  He is a luxery the Orioles really don't need.

The question is, would they deal him?

Mora, I think, could bring in a couple of prospects to potentially build around, hopefully outfielders or other positional players.  As long as Baltimore swallowed some money, people could inquire.  Philadelphia may be interested, as Mora would be a upgrade over their current situation and the Yankees, should they lose Alex Rodriguez, may be interested in a short term fix should they feel Wilson Betemit isn't the long term answer.  The Dodgers and Angels, two teams that also may want to upgrade their third base over the winter and have prospects to do so.

Actually, I should probably rephrase that.  The real question is, would Peter Angelos let it happen.

Angelos famously killed a deal for Miguel Tejada that would have netted him Erick Aybar and Ervin Santana and may have been responsible for killing a deal that may have sent Astros Ace Roy Oswalt to the Texas Rangers (and if he was, I hate Peter Angelos even more than I already do.)

Really, I think that the Traschel Deal should serve as a potentially rebuilding stage of the Orioles that could net cheap talent that could, long term, help the Orioles not only get more cost efficient and flexible, but potentially become a winning team and could return them to being a crown jewel of baseball once more.

That's all for now.  Let's hope the week goes well...

The title screen aside, I throughly enjoyed the Rangers 30-3 rout of the Baltimore Orioles, partially because of the Teixeira connection, partially becaue I had enough of seeing the Rangers get no hit.  Though I wish some of that thunder could have been busted out in some of the other games, I'll take what I can get.

So, to honor my Rangers, I'll raise a beer, toast them, and hope they can break the record for most runs in a doubleheader, 40.

At the time of this writing, they've got 2 more.

Go Rangers!

And Good Night Now!!!

The Rangers Report

Record As Of Mary May 21, 2007

17-27, Last In The American League West

Changing My Outlook For The Season

This past week’s games has made it clear to me that this team isn’t going to contend for the AL West title this year. 

Why?

Simply put, this team has underperformed, been snakebitten, and is a bit too far back to make a run.  And with the Angels playing solid ball, barring the Angels Team Plane crashing and sending the entire team to the DL, it's going to be hard to make it back to the top of the standings, let alone get to .400.  On top of that, it seems like player after player has been crashing onto the disabled list, with Hank Blalock being the latest in a series of losses to go down. 

So I’m changing my approach on the season.

From this point on, I am declaring the Texas Rangers out of contention for the 2007 season. 

Would it change if a sudden hot streak begun?  No.  The Seattle Mariners beat up on the National League last season and still wound up in last place.  Such numbers would be deceiving and would be counterproductive.

So, what I would do now, were I management, is begin a process of rebuilding from the ground up.  The Texas Rangers organization of 2000-2005 has been built largely on a shaky foundation.   2006 was actually the beginning of a new approach for the Rangers.  Rather than go for buying a championship, Texas focused on the draft for the first time in a long time and came away with several players that look to be solid contributors in the future. 

That’s an excellent start.  But they can’t stop there.

With this being the last year of the draft and follow, the Rangers also need to sign several of those players they drafted as DAF candidates, boosting the stock of talent in the minors and giving the entire system a broader, younger talent base and a stronger foundation to eventually build all the levels of the minors upon.   Neither one of your two upper level clubs need to have journeymen or has beens making up a good portion of the roster. 

Texas also needs to invest heavily in higher quality talent that has fallen in their laps, similar to what the Yankees and the Red Sox have done.  In the long run, spending $10 million on the draft and not spending it on horrid free agent signings pays off a lot more than the later does. 

So that’s the direction I’m going in.  We’ll still be following the big league club at the major league level, but expect to see some more research done on the minors here as well.  All in all, I hope to bring everyone a balanced, interesting, and hopefully, fun read for all of you.

And don’t worry Mariners fans, especially those who felt that I would be spending the rest of the year trading bards with Pirates and Royals fans (though I do like both clubs, oddly enough.)

You all ain’t going anywhere either.

To put it bluntly, this division is Angels, Athletics, and everyone else.

And the Athletics might not even keep the team together that much longer either.

So I’ll be watching the playoffs with the rest of you in October.

Third Base Options

The Rangers are looking into possibly trading for a third baseman (though why, for gods sake, would they, when a tandem of Ramon Vasquez and Travis Metcalf would be just fine).  Options at the moment are slim, but there are some options out there.  Here's who the Rangers are eyeing.

• Morgan Ensberg (Astros) - Ensberg is better than how he's been playing and it could be that he needs a change of scenery to help matters.  Houston certainly would be willing to deal him for a useful player, though I'm not sure what both teams would be able to match up with in terms of a trade.
• Edwin Encarnacion (Reds) - The Former Ranger has been on the chopping block for some time.  The Reds may want to deal him in exchange for a bullpen arm (Scott Feldman anyone?)
• Aaron Flippin Boone (Marlins) - The Former Red Sox killer has been mashing in a backup role and word is that the Marlins would prefer to deal him than to allow him to make all of his contract incentives and bust their budget.  However, there isn't much to line up in terms of a deal, unless the Rangers are willing to give Kevin Mahar a shot and trade Kenny Lofton to the Marlins.
• Tony Clark (Diamondbacks) - Clark is sitting in Arizona in a bench role and it's possible that he could be amendable to a trade if he is willing to switch to third.

Mark Teixeira Trade Rumors

Here are a pair of Big Tex trade rumors that are being tossed around as we speak:

• Texas Trades Mark Teixeira to the Baltimore Orioles for RF Nick Markakis and prospect - As badass as Nick Markakis is, I would hold off on this trade because of the fact that A) The Orioles don't have any real prospects worth a #### and B) Peter Angelos would #### it all up.
• Texas Trades Mark Teixeira To The Boston Red Sox For LHP Jon Lester and CF Jacoby Ellsbury or 1B Kevin Youkilis.  This is a better trade option as Lester is a solid young pitcher and Ellsbury is a legitimate centerfielder and leadoff man.  I would sweeten the deal if possible with the Red Sox in order to get them to include Youkilis in the deal, however, though I would let them known that stud prospect Eric Hurley is untouchable.

That's all for now, have a good week everyone!

Why Coco Crisp is not long in Boston, why J.P. Riccardi is a horrible GM that should have been fired a long time ago, 2007 Free Agent Pitchers (Part 1 of 3) and the Royals' Rookie Closer.

Coco Not Long In Beantown

Tired of Coco Crisp yet Boston?

Don't worry.  He won't be there for long.

Simply put, for two reasons:

1. Andruw Jones is a free agent after this season
2. Jacoby Ellsbury has reached Triple A

Crisp has long been seen as a stopgap for Ellsbury, who is an OBP machine in the minors and looks to be the second coming of Johnny Damon in the Red Sox system.  He's a excellent centerfielder with speed, plate discipline, and insticts in the outfield.  And at this point in time, there's going to be a desire to see him sooner rather than later in Crisp continues to struggle.

As for Jones, Jones was pursued by Boston last season and was almost dealt for until the Red Sox balked at the Braves' demand for Jon Lester to be included in the deal.  With Jones nearing Free Agency and the Braves not likely to bring him back, he would be a excellent addition in the short term for the Red Sox, who could play him in center for one year while Ellsbury remains in Triple A for one more year.  Afterward, the Red Sox would allow Manny Ramirez to leave, then promote Ellsbury to center while allowing Jones to slide over to left field, where the overall Boston Defense would improve.  Jones would also serve as protection for Ortiz in the lineup, as his bat is just as potent as Ramirez'

Crisp in the meantime, would be quite attractive as a trade chip to teams needing a centerfielder and would net another prospect for the Red Sox, who need a third baseman who can succeed Mike Lowell. 

It's not a trade rumor, it's simply an obersvation that bears watching.

J.P. Ricciardi - A Disaster That Walks Like A Man

Apologies to the Daily Show for the tagline, but it fits Toronto's hapless GM.  For some reason or another, ownership is steadfastly standing by their GM, even though he's probably done far more harm to the organization than good, in terms of his wheeling and dealing.

Let's rewind a bit.  The Blue Jays dominated the American League in the early 90's, winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993, but had to jetison most of the team because of the strike and a decline in fan base.  The team worked itself back to try and rebuild itself from within, but the process cost then GM Gord Ash his job.  Ricciardi, then one of Billy Beane's lieutenants in Oakland, had made a name for himself as Oakland's director of personnel and was given the job.

Since then, Ricciardi has made some severely questionable decisions, in terms of the talent brought in and given away.  Here are the players Toronto has brought in that have made any sort of impact that are still on the roster:

• B.J. Ryan (LHP) - The O's former closer had an All Star caliber season before his Tommy John procedure cost him his season and Ricciardi's credability.
• Troy Glaus (3B) - Obtained in a trade with Arizona and probably one of the few trades where Toronto may have gotten the better deal.
• Lyle Overbay (1B) - Brought in to counterbalance Glaus.  A minor deal, really.
• A.J. Burnett (RHP) -

And here's who's gone, by trade or by free agency:

• Michael Young (SS) - Traded for Esteban Loaiza.  Loaiza was average in Toronto and left via free agency.  Despite his slump, he's done far better than any of the Toronto Shortstops they've fielded.
• Ted Lilly (LHP) - This capable lefty wasn't shown enough love to stay with the Jays.  Now he's knocking them down in Chicago.
• Felipe Lopez (SS/2B) - Traded to Cincinatti, I wonder how Toronto would be fared with a infield combination of Young and Lopez instead of what they're running out right now.
• Orlando Hudson (2B) - A smooth second baseman, Hudson has a decent bat that provides depth to the lineup.  The DBacks send their thank yous.
• Miguel Batista (RHP) - Oooh, another starting pitcher that's far better than what Toronto has right now.
• Dave Bush (RHP) - Milwaukee says Thanks Again.
• Carlos Delgado (1B) - A face of the franchise, Delgado was simply allowed to walk.  Terrible.
• Justin Speier (RHP) - A solid relief pitcher that helped cement the bullpen.  He was also allowed to walk and all the Jays got was the Angels' second round draft pick.
• Chris Carpenter (RHP) - Drafted by the organization and was let go.  Found stardom in St. Louis.
• Kelvim Escobar (RHP) - Another player allowed to leave, became a solid starter for the Angels.
• Cory Lidle (RHP) - The late Corey Lidle had success in the Blue Jays and then was also allowed to leave.
• Mark Hendrickson (RHP) - Traded to Tampa Bay, Hendrickson is actually a decent starter, who Toronto could use right now.

Ouch, that a lot of talent to let go, especially when you consider that many of these players would have helped Toronto compete in the short and long term and may have severely affected the race of the AL East and the American League as a whole.

But, the counterarguement is that in Oakland, the team has found ways of competeing in spite of losses of talent, for the draft pick compensation would result in high quality players that would help the big league club contribute immediately.  Such a strategy would work for Toronto, right?

Not exactly.

Here's the rundown of Ricciardi's drafts, which have been focused mostly on college players, and the players that have Toronto has passed on that have become productive major leaguers.  It should be noted that the two franchise cornerstone players, Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay, were not drafted by Ricciardi, but rather by the previous regime. 

• 2002 - Russ Adams.  Passed On:  Scott Kazmir (Mets), Nick Swisher (Oakland), Cole Hamels (Philly), Jeff Francouer (Atlanta), Joe Blanton (Oakland), Matt Cain (Giants).
• 2003 - Aaron Hill.  Passed On:  Chad Cordero (Nationals), Brandon Wood (Angels), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers)
• 2004 - David Purcey, Zach Johnson.  Passed On:  Josh Fields (White Sox), Philip Hughes (Yankees), Eric Hurley (Rangers), Huston Street (Oakland)
• 2005 - Ricky Romero.  Passed On:  Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutcheon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza,
• 2006 - Travis Snyder. 

Of all of these drafts, the Jays have let better players fall past them in order to draft college talent that they figured would have less of a change of a bust potential.  Of all of Ricciardi's drafts, only Snyder looks like he'll become anything special and allow Hamels and Cain to slip past them, along with Street, Garza and others, make Ricciardi's draft decisions look questionable at best.

Typically, it takes 5 years for it to see i####eneral Manager is working out or not for a franchise, as that is how long it takes for the talent development department for the team in order to bring up the fruits of the draft to the big league club.  Toronto hasn't done that and has hemmoraged more talent away from the club than it has to brought into it.  Toronto has misjudged their own free agent decisions, either by time, evaluation or money and the result has been a loss of players that the Jays had to keep around if they wanted to remain competitive.  I know Toronto isn't made of money like their other AL Rivals, but there is a point in time where you need to hold onto your own homegrown players, otherwise the drain on your club can become overpowering. 

2007 Free Agency - Starting Pitchers (Fours And Fives)

Continuing the look at free agency after this season, here is a look at starting pitching, namely back of the rotation starters.  This market looks rather pathetic, but there are a few attractive options that could work for a team in need of a fourth starter.

• Kenny Rogers (Tigers) – There’s going to be the usual health questions with Rogers, considering he’s now in his early 40’s and nearing retirement.  His stuff is very much diminished and he gets by more on deception than by pure raw stuff.  However, he’d be a suitable fourth starter for any team willing to pay for his services.  Unless he’s totally soured on management, I can see him taking a one year deal to finish his career in Texas, where it all started.
• Joe Kennedy (Athletics) – Kennedy will be hitting the free agent market at the right time.  He's a left hander with decent stuff that has seen his career turn around since he left Colorado.  Kennedy is off to a solid starter and a good season will net him a 3 year, $33 million deal from somebody.
• Kris Benson (Orioles) – [If $7.5MM club option is declined.]  I don’t expect Benson to return to the Orioles, as his tenure with Baltimore has pretty much been a disappointment all around, though to be fair, he was a relatively cheap date as far as what was given up (Jorge Julio and a John Maine that would have floundered in Baltimore).  Realistically, I expect Benson to take a incentive laden one year deal in order to boost his value once again.  Realistically, Benson is still young enough where he could afford to go that route and still obtain a multiple year deal afterwards, but you get the feeling that his stock has fallen so far that people regard him as one of the biggest over hyped talents in the past decade.  I think he’d be a decent three in the National League, but don’t hold me to that.
• Jon Lieber (Phillies) – Lieber is nearing the end of his career and is not going to be in line for a huge payday.  However, a one year deal isn’t out of the question, as teams are always willing to pay for talent.  Hey, Chan #### Park got an offer and he has worse stuff that Lieber does.  Lieber outmaneuvers hitters rather than blowing them away and may be able to put up roughly league average numbers in the right situation.  It’s not with the Phillies, so a team with a big ballpark may be the best thing for him. 
• Tomo Ohka (Blue Jays) – Millhouse’s favorite player will re-enter the free agent market after this year.  Ohka’s not a bad pitcher, as he’s reasonably durable and gets by with a lot of deception.  However, he’s a fighter and is willing to give you six innings of work unless he absolutely can’t go.  He’d be a valuable fourth or fifth starter on a National League team.
• Kyle Lohse (Reds) – The talking heads and pundits always talk about how Kyle Lohse has underachieved and should be a number two starter with his stuff.  The fact of the matter is that he’s strictly a number four with maybe ambitions of being a three.  However, he’s done fairly well since moving to the NL, so it’s possible that he may have just been a poor fit for the AL style of play.  Anyhow, if he continues to do fairly well, he’ll get well compensated for it by a team seeking pitching depth, possibly with a 3 year, $30 million deal.  Lohse features a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and couples this with a slider that reaches the mid 80’s.  He’s also got a serviceable changeup that he has some command over, but not enough to make it a plus pitch.  The one thing Lohse does have going for him is that he’s fairly durable.
• Josh Fogg (Rockies) – About the only thing that Fogg offers is that he’s able to log in innings.  While there is some value to that, I’m not sure how great that serves a team when the offense is sputtering and they need a dominant pitching performance to win.

Joakim Soria – Another Rule V Pick Done Good (So Far…)

The Royals have made a move that is paying off big dividends so far.

And that is using a Rule V pick instead of just letting him gather dust, they took a chance on Soria when Octavio Dotel went down and he has delievered, posting a record of 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 6 saves in 7 opportunities.  Soria was a former San Diego Padres prospect that went unprotected and was picked by Kansas City, who saw the need for a solid pitching prospect.  So far, the result has been spectacular and it doesn't look like Soria will be headed by to the San Diego system anytime soon, if ever.

That's my time everyone.  Have a great weekend.

For the past three seasons, the Houston Astros have ruled the National League Central and have represented the National League in the World Series in each of those past three years. 

And now, well, both teams are currently occupying the cellar in the National League Central.

Such a collapse was inevitable, perhaps even predictable, when you see how both teams have fallen flat on their faces for much of the year.

What was the root cause of the collapses?

The reasons are many, but here are the three root causes,,,

1. The Improvement Of The National League Central.  Many of the analysts will state that the NL Central is the weakest of the six divisions.  However, consider the fact that the Brewers, the Pirates, and the Reds have all improved while the Cubs, who have also been down as of late, have begun to rebound after their down period.  Both teams found themsleves unable to dominate their compition as they once could and soon
2. The Loss Of Talent In The Farm System.  Both teams have sacrificed a lot of talent to sustain their winning streaks.  The Cardinals have traded away the likes of Dan Haren, Daric Barton, Kiki Calero, and other valuable prospects to acquire Mark Mulder, Jeff Weaver, and others to bolster the main club.  The Astros have been even worse, surrendering John Buck, Octavio Dotel, Jason Hirsh, Wily Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, Mitch Talbot and Ben Zobrist for expensive one year rentals of Carlos Beltran, Jason Jennings, and Aubrey Huff, respectively.  The result has been the depletion of their respective systems and no impact talent left in the upper minors to draw upon when veterens are struggling or are ineffective, or even to make more trades.  Neither team's situation is going to get better when you consider the draft pick compensation that has been lost due to the next reason..
3. Questionable Free Agent Signings.  Both teams have also let players go because of various reasons that are looking more and more terrible as time passes.  The Astros have allowed Andy Pettitte, a horse in their rotation, to leave to the Yankees.  They brought in Woody Williams and Preston Wilson, both of whom were or currently are performing badly for H-Town.  As for the Cardinals, they allowed most of their rotation to depart via free agency, such as Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and others, for fear of paying too much to retain them.  That arguement looks even worse when you consider the fact that not only are Suppan and Marquis, but that both are doing it for division rivals.

Can both franchises pull themsevles out of a rut?  It's possible, considering that both teams are littered with players that are underachieving.  But the more time that's passing, the more and more it looks unlikely that it's going to happen.

The Rangers Report

Record As Of May 2, 2007

10-16, 4th In American League West

April In Review

I was going to produce a long, drawn out effort in the pluses and minuses of the Rangers in April.

Instead, I’ll just be blunt.

We suck.

Possible Centerfielder’s For The Future

This is probably the deepest position on the free agent market, where there are a total of nine players that can legitimately play center.

• Andruw Jones (Braves) – Jones is the sexy name on everyone’s list and it’s no wonder why.  He’s a incredible hitter and plays a decent centerfield as well.  Unfortunately, expect to see Jones priced out of the Rangers’ range, even though I would recommend that the Rangers make a strong run at him.
• Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners) – Ichiro has stated that he would like to test the market for the first time in his career, as he has never had a chance to actually choose his own destiny.  Should Suzuki choose to become Ronin, he would be a quality lineup presence in the Rangers, able to provide solid leadoff ability as well as provide solid defense in center.  The only question is whether or not Suzuki is willing to play against his former team.
• Torii Hunter (Twins) – Hunter looks more and more like a plausible option in that he lives in Arlington, has a good relationship with Rangers Manager Ron Washington and that he’s a premier defender that would benefit from moving from turf to grass.  However, Hunter also is prone to injuries and of the players on this list is the largest risk to break down.  Whoever acquires Hunter is going to be at a large risk of overpaying for him and I don’t think he’s going to age well after this year. 
• Kosuke Fukudome (Chunichi Dragns - Japan) – Fukudome is a five-tool centerfielder in Japan that plays for the Chunichi Dragons. He's going to be a free agent after 2007 and apparently has stated that he’s intends to come to the United States to finish his career.  He was also a member of Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic and was the 2006 Central League MVP and batting champion, hitting .351-31-104.  He's a career .306/.393/.545 hitter with 179 homers, 599 RBIs and 66 steals in 993 Japanese games.   If I had to classify him as anything, he’s a more mobile Hideki Matsui lite.  He’ll be 31 when he comes over and should be a lot of fun to watch.  In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Seattle allow Ichiro to leave in order to replace him in center with Fukudome as a short term fix until top prospect Adam “I’m Not Pacman” Jones is ready.  Personally, Fukudone looks to be the best bet out of the lot, but again, there is no guarantee that he’s coming.
• Eric Byrnes (Diamondbacks) – A personal favorite, Byrnes is a solid guy that can hit late in the lineup and has done pretty well for himself fin Arizona.  With the Diamondbacks not likely to bring him back, he’d be a solid short term option for Texas until some of the kids begin to develop.
• Corey Patterson (Orioles) – Of all the centerfielders on the market, Patterson is the youngest at 28, always a good thing for such an athletic position.  The Orioles made a rare deal in which they came out the biggest winners last year when they traded for Patterson, giving up Jerry Hairston Jr. and a pack of cigarettes.  Patterson is a Scott Boras client, which the Orioles have had trouble dealing with in the past.  Plus, people are going to wonder if Patterson is a one-year wonder, which is why they Orioles have said they’ll address his situation after the season.  With Patterson entering his last season, the Orioles are in a quirky position.  If the Orioles wait and Patterson against boats a decent average with some power and some flashly defensive plays (a la Gary Matthews Jr. last year.), Boras will almost certainly price him out of their range, as I firmly believe that Patterson will get a Matthews-like contract at the end of the season. 
• Milton Bradley (Athletics) – Bradley is an intriguing option in that he’s still pretty young, athletic and can be productive as a centerfielder.  He’s also a headcase and not a sure bet to stay healthy for much of the year. 
• Aaron Rowand (Phillies) – Rowand’s style of play reminds many fans of former Ranger Rusty Greer.  Unfortunately, that also means he may be in for a Greer style breakdown, which doesn’t do you any good long term. 
• Mike Cameron (Padres) – I thought that there would be a chance that Cameron would stay with the Padres, but unfortunately, it looks as if Cameron will be moving on from San Diego after this season. Cameron wants a three year deal, which the Padres were unwilling to do, and will now hit the market at the age of 35.  PETCOA has Cameron being worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $21 million from 2008 too 2010.  He’s likely going to want 3 years, $30 million, which isn’t too unreasonable.
• Kenny Lofton (Rangers) – Lofton still looks pretty good for the most part as far as his play, but he’s really not going to be much of a factor as far as a impact player.  Texas signed him in order to give them a stopgap in center until the next year.  If he’s willing to accept a backup role, there’s no reason to believe he can’t be a good one.

Ranger Notes

• A surprising bit of news here.  Bruce Chen cleared waivers and has accepted a assignment to Triple A Oklahoma.  The Rangers had thought that Chen would be claimed and talked to a number of teams about a trade, including the New York Yankees. 
• Edinson Volquez is not making things easier for himself.  Though he was excellent in his third start, Volquez in his fourth start had just one hit in five-plus innings and eight groundouts, but permitting three runs as he issued five walks and unleashed two wild pitches before being ejected by the home plate umpire about arguing the strike zone.  The Rangers had hoped that Volquez would be able to last five starts in High A Bakersfield, where he would hopefully find his command, and then gradually work his way up, but Volquez has been very wild and may dash those plans for now.
• C.J. Wilson continues to draw interest from the Tigers, who want a solid lefty reliever for their bullpen.  I would trade C.J. in the right deal, but it would have to involve a pitching prospect that’s got a shot at being a starter.

   

If you were an MLB General Manager and I offered you the following trade:

Middle of the Rotation Starter For Bullpen Arm With Large Upside And Average Pitching Prospect

How many of you would jump in favor of this trade?

Just about everyone.

Now, let's put the names back into the offer:

RHP Kris Benson For RHP Jorge Julio and RHP John Maine.

Would you still make the trade?

Answers are no.  Especially when you consider how much Maine has done since he was traded to the Mets.  This trade looks like a steal now.

But, it goes to show you.  Trades are best evaluated one year from the time the trade shakes out.  Other pitchers can get flipped, as the Alfonso Soriano deal showed, and pitchers can implode or fail to be affected, as the Austin Kearns deal showed.

But the Benson deal is an interesting one, because at the time, it was thought that the Mets were getting royally #### by the Orioles.

Let's take you back to the off-season of 2005.

Omar Minaya saw a need to improve a woefully horrific bullpen, which had been terrible the day before.  With the new amount of offense that had been acquired in trades and additions, Minaya felt that the least he could do was ensure that he had a suitable enough stopgap to hold the lead.

Hence the signing of BIlly Wagner and the deal for Duaner Sanchez.  Minaya saw himself working from a position of strength, as he felt that he could succeed with a relatively average rotation of the following:

• Pedro Martinez (RHP)
• Steve Traschel (RHP)
• Tom Glavine (LHP)
• Victor Zambrano (RHP)
• Brian Bannister (RHP)

Underwhelming, but serviceable with a good pen and offense.

Minaya also sought to get rid of a headache.  It was no secret that Minaya wanted Anna Benson, Kris Benson's controversial spouse, as far away from him and the Mets as possible.  He felt that Benson would at least net one more arm to help out the pen. 

Benson was reportedly offered to the Texas Rangers for RHP prospect Juan Dominguez, but the Rangers weren't interested, though Dominguez would eventually be traded to the Oakland Athletics later in the off-season.

Minaya sought another hard throwing pitcher to help solidify the pen and found a pitcher he thought suited the role nicely:  Jorge Julio, currently the property of the Baltimore Orioles.  Julio was an explosive arm that had been in decline and could possibly allow the Mets to move Aaron Heilman to the starting rotation.  Julio had legitmate power stuff, with a high 90’s fastball and a high 90’s slider and would look good in front of Wagner.

Baltimore had just lost closer B.J. Ryan to the Blue Jays and realistically, they were okay with that, as they had a nice young closer in Chris Ray.  However, they needed another arm in the rotation, as at the time they were unsure about whether or not Daniel Cabrera and Eric Bedard were front of the line starters.  Benson, despite a spotty track record, had a track record nonetheless and the Orioles felt that Benson's talent would fnally flourish when united with legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone.  Plus, they were soured on Julio's decline from lights out ace to inconsistent closer and felt that Benson would be a steal.

The two sides discussed it, financial deals were worked out, and the deal was done.  It was thought to be a fair trade on both sides, though the O's thought they had gotten one by Omar.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, the news was leaked.  And the newspapers had a field day, calling for Minaya’s head and angry that Minaya would get so little for a middle of the rotation man.  Meekly, in order to save face, Minaya asked the Orioles if they would want to include another part of the deal.  Baltimore, eager for the deal to go through, agreed.  And here’s is where Maine would enter the picture.

Maine was a 24-year-old righthander that was a sixth-round pick out of UNC Charlotte in 2002, and saw his first extensive time in the majors in 2005, going 2-3, 6.30 in 10 games (eight starts).  He had great command of his 90-91 mph fastball, and he also threw a slider, curveball and changeup.  He was intriguing, but the Orioles had deemed Maine to be an average prospect ==, but thought that in the long run, he wouldn’t be able to translate his talent into results.  Part of it had to do with his nnumbers.  As said he went 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA in the majors, but also went 6-11 with a 4.56 ERA in the minors.  Buit this assessment was made in spite of the fact that Maine had posted solid numbers in his previous stops.  It’s likely that they viewed Maine to be a prospect that hit a wall.

Satisfied with the deal, both sides agreed to the swap.

Anna Benson had her day with the media, arguing that the Mets had traded her husband for a bag of balls. 

But that was the deal.  As it is was viewed at the time, Benson was a quality, middle of the rotation starter and Julio was viewed to be a closer candidate in need of new spaces and faces and places.  As for Maine, he was an interesting prospect, but nothing special.

Now, Maine looks like a right handed version of Andy Pettitte, Benson may be done, and Julio is on his fourth team in three years, having been flipped for Orlando Hernandez to Arizona and was flipped again to Florida for Yusmeiro Petit.

Is there any guarantee that Maine would have dominanted in Balimore had he not been traded?  No.  I believe Maine has largely benefited from working with the Mets' training staff and that his work with them has lead to his breakout.  If he had remained in Baltimore, for all we know, he may have been stuck in Triple A Hell, as a prospect that lacked any belief in him by the organization.

If this trade had been played out to completion, here's how it would have looked, with all the branches this original trade has sprung:

The New York Mets complete a four team deal with the Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles.

• New York Obtains:  RHP's John Maine, Orlando Hernandez
• Arizona Obtains:  RHP Yusmeiro Pettit
• Florida Obtains:  RHP Jorge Julio And Cash Considerations
• Baltimore Obtains:  RHP Kris Benson

Wow.  That's a lot of twists and turns for that deal.  When seen from that context, the Mets come out looking like geniuses, don't they.

Just a thought.  That's all. 

Next Time On Trades That Look Worse Now:  The Lasting Impact Of Johnny Damon And Edgar Renteria On Boston.