Time for the team previews to resume.

Today, the hat says...we're going North of the Border.

Team Previews 2008 – Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have in recent years made the setp toward respectability, but that has come in spite of of bad signings, bad drafts and bad personnel decisions overall by management, specifically J.P Riccardi.  To put it bluntly, the Jays are in a tough spot, as they don't suck as bad as some of the other teams in the AL, but they aren't as good as the cream of the crop. 

Starting Rotation

1. Roy Halladay (RHP) – Halladay is still an effective pitcher, though he has begun depending more on groundballs these days instead of flat out dominating hitters like he used to.  He’s still a bit of a health risk, but as long as that knuckle-curve of his remains solid and the fastball low, he should be dominant again.
2. A.J. Burnett (RHP) – Gifted, but injured, Burnett is entering his walk year, as he’s likely to opt out of his current contract to hit free agency this coming off-season.  Burnett could be a legitimate top of the rotation starter, but he either gets injured or struggles just when it looks like he’s turned a corner.  However, because of the money at stake, look for him to actually pitch nearly a complete season, with decent numbers.
3. Dustin McGowan (RHP) – Best pure stuff of the young starters, McGowan should be able to elevate his status enough to where he can be considered a capable number two.  He’s got four good pitches, including his fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and has some ink to it.  His only real weakness is lefties, but aside from that, he could effectively replace Burnett as soon as next season, provided that the Jays have some help to replace his spot in the rotation. 
4. Shaun Marcum (RHP) – I’m not sold on Marcum, as I feel he gets by more on the command of his average stuff than anything else.  That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fourth starter, it just means don’t expect him to be lights out.  Last year is probably the best case scenario for him.
5. Jesse Litsch (RHP) – Litsch is an average fifth starter that depends on his defense to help him pitch effectively. 

Bullpen

• B.J. Ryan (Closer) – Ryan’s injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery were probably a prime example of some of the worst
• Jeremy Accardo (Setup Man) – The fact that the Jays were able to get him for a declining Shea Hillenbrand amounts to Highway Robbery.  Accardo will likely be moving back to the setup role, as it appears that Ryan will be ready at the start of the season.
• Casey Janseen (RHP) – Janseen is likely going to remain in the pen as the primary 7th inning man, a role that he succeeded in last season, though the Jays have made note that they haven’t given up on him as a starter.
• Gustavo Chacin (LHP) – I’m not sure why Chacin is still on the roster, but it looks like he’ll remain in the bullpen as a swingman unless Litsch or someone else plays their way out.
• Jason Frasor (RHP) - Only as good as his command takes him.
• Brandon League (RHP) – League failed to establish himself as a setup man last season, but he still has a lot of use as a middle reliever, with the chance to setup later.
• Scott Downs (LHP) - Dominant lefty reliever completes the pen.

Starting Lineup

1. Reed Johnson (LF) – Johnson was effective as a leadoff man in 2006, but injuries killed his season last year and resulted in the lack of effectiveness.  Johnson will likely share time with Matt Stairs this season.
2. Lyle Overbay (1B) - Not a great power hitter, Overbay has at least done a decent job of getting on base before injuries hit.
3. Vernon Wells (CF) - A disappointment, Wells needs to bounce back from a terrible year at the plate.  With the departure of Glaus, a lot more is riding on Wells' ability to drive in runs.
4. Frank Thomas (DH) - Still a capable masher, Thomas will see the bulk of at bats at DH.  It looks like his health issues are behind him, but keep in mind he is older and will need regular rest. 
5. Alex Rios (RF) - Rios is rapidly turning into a solid all around player.  He's able to hit for power and a decent average and isn't a slouch on the basepaths either.  He's a great right fielder.  All in all, here is one long term commitment I wouldn't mind the Jays making.
6. Scott Rolen (3B) – Rolen is now in the fold and frankly, this is a bad trade.  There is a difference between "passionate" and "high maintenence."  Rolen is the later.  He's a decent defender, but there is no guarnatee that he'll stay healthy, especially now that he's playing on turf.
7. Gregg Zaun (C) – Zaun is rapidly declining as a catcher.  The only thing he really can do now is hit lefties.
8. Aaron  Hill (2B) - A nifty second baseman, Hill should be on an All Star squad in the near future.  His defensive value will help make up for the questionable signing up next...
9. David Eckstein (SS) - The Blue Jays are betting that Eckstein and Rolen will bring in some of that "gritty" atmosphere from St. Louis.  Eckstein is old, not a great bet to stay healthy and can't hit.  That spells winner!

Bench

• John McDonald (SS) - A defensive shortstop, McDonald will likely spell Eckstein late in games.
• Matt Stairs (UTIL) - There is still some life in that bat, as Stairs enjoyed one of his best seasons last year.  You'll see him pop up all around the diamond, spelling Johnson, Overbay and Thomas when necessary.
• Rod Barajas (C) - Barajas signs up with the very team he spurned last season.  Regardless of my personal feeligns of Barajas, he may have at least another solid year left in him.  All he needs is the chance to sieze it.
• Marco Scutaro (INF) – Scutaro may wind up beating out Eckstein for the starting gig at short this season.  Scutaro can play short and second and has a bit of pop to his bat.  But that's really about all he can do. 

Minor League Notables

• Curtis Thigpen (C) – Thigpen did well enough in limited action last season that he’ll likely be the starter come 2009.  While he’ll likely spend the year in the minors, should injuries decimate
• Ricky Romero (LHP) - Famously picked ahead of Troy Tulowitzski, Romero may be ready to contribute at the end of the season.  His ceiling is a Number Four starter.

Final Thoughts

This is really Toronto’s last shot at contending, as this team was built to win now.  After this season, there will be a lot of people leaving the organization via free agency and Toronto lacks the major pieces in the farm other than Travis Snider that will  help out long term.  Even then, unless Toronto gets the benefit of a lot of injuries among their division mates, they are, at best, the third best team in the division.

Final Prediction - 3rd Place, American League East. 

Well, originally meant for Friday Morning Closer (obviously that didn't happen) I thought I'd share some of the stuff I came up with.  Afterall, it would just go to waste if no one checked it out.

A Retrospective

With all of the options that are being picked up, inlcuding those that come to the chargin of the athlete (I'm talking to you, Gary Sheffield), you have got to look back at 2005's free agency and admit, those deals are pretty great now.

How stupid do the Red Sox look now that they thought that Johnny Damon wasn't worth 4 years, $52 million, especially when they'll likely have to enter the Gary Matthews Jr. Sweepstakes and have to overpay for the Rangers' centerfielder.  The Texas Rangers were thought to have been nuts in signing Kevin Millwood for 5 years, $60 million.  Now Millwood is going to be a bargain now, especially at a time the Rangers are going to have to jump into the free agent market again.  

 As is the Toronto Blue Jays "overpaying" for closer B.J. Ryan.  Now it's viewed to be one of the most important signings in the off-season, especially in a season where the closers market is viewed to be extremely weak, with the names of Eric Gage and Kerry Wood being the most marquee names on the roster.

The point I'm making is that several teams last season took the initiative to gamble on free agent prices rising.  WIth the luxury tax rising and revenue doing the same, we may look at the free agent class of 2005 with envy in a few years, as these teams enjoy the services of these cheaper players for years to come.

Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano left the team's facility in Fort Myers, Florida, apparently frustrated with his lack of progress in his attempt to get healthy enough to be able to pitch in winter ball.  Liriano, 23, went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA during the season and was considered a frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year award before the injury.  After struggling through an Aug. 7 start against Detroit, he left the game because of elbow soreness.  A brief stint in rehab followed, and Liriano returned to the mound Sept. 13 against the A's.  He cruised through the first two innings and appeared to be back to form before once again leaving the game early with elbow pain and was shut down for the season.  He was diagnosed with a mild sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament, an injury team doctors had hoped would clear itself up through rest and rehabilitation. 

The problem is that this injury is starting to resemble the early symptoms of a possible ligament tear, and would require Tommy John Surgery.  The Twins were hoping that it would not come to that, as seen from a rotation that fielded two rookies, one retiring pitcher, and one inconsistent one behind Johan Santana.  But maybe in the long run it would be the best.  Paul Byrd of the Cleveland Indians said that he suffered a similar condition for years until he finally decided to undergo the procedure, which he credits for reviving his career.  Maybe it’s time that Liriano sat down with the team, tell them of his intentions to have the procedure done, and explain that this way would be the easiest way for both parties.  Liriano would get his career back on track and the Twins would benefit from a healthy Liriano the next year, rather than see him waste another year and have to have the surgery later.

Seattle Is Under The Gun

With All-Star center fielder Ichiro Suzuki entering the final season of his contract in 2007, questions abound concerning his long-term prospects with the team.  Suzuki has said that he would not seek a contract extension, though he would listen if the Mariners offered one.  However, reports have been coming out of Seattle that Suzuki is becoming increasingly frustrated with the Mariners’ lack of competitiveness and will take this year to evaluate how close the Mariners are to competing.  If he thinks they are on the verge of returning to their winning ways, Ichiro will stick around.  If no, Suzuki will test the market, where as a centerfielder and a leadoff man, he’ll earn a king’s ransom.

Seattle has the makings o####ood bullpen and the infield is set with Johjima, Sexton, Lopez, Betancourt and Beltre and some promise on the outfield corners.  The problem is pitching and the DH, and neither will come cheap for the Mariners.  Which leaves the Mariners in an odd position.  They could try and splurge, but free agency is a crapshoot and the market is going to be nuts this off-season, with lots of teams expected to splurge on a pitching class that is dubious at best.  Seattle looks like their attempting to build a young team that can contend for the long haul, and not just the near future.  And keep in mind that Ichiro is now 33 and has maybe three years of elite play before he hits his decline stage.  At the very least, the Mariners are two years from becoming serious contenders in the division (sorry sleepless, if you’re reading this, but it’s true).

To be blunt, the Mariners need to sit down and discuss where Ichiro fits into the grand scheme of things.  If they feel that Ichiro can contribute something in the grand scheme of things, then by all means, make every effort to re-sign him.  But if the Mariners feel that Suzuki would have more value leaving Seattle, then they should make every effort to trade him in a market that, without a clear cut star defensive centerfielder, would give them the most #### for their buck.

Free Agency Rumblings And Grumblings

·          If the Mets lose the bidding for Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Mets are expected to be heavy players for Mark Mulder and Ted Lilly, two former Oakland teammates that could benefit from being reunited with former Oakland and Current Mets Pitching Coach Rick Peterson.  Many blame Mulder’s injuries and inconsistency that have hampered Mulder since he was traded to St. Louis to the fact that he was no longer being tutored by Peterson.  Lilly has fared better, but wasn’t nearly what he was with Oakland. 

·          Despite the fact that Julio Lugo is coveting the Mets second base job, the Mets are internally discussing Giants 2nd Baseman Ray Durham instead.  He won't come cheap, as the Mets would have to bid against the Dodgers and the Giants for his services, but many in the Mets love Durham’s skills as well as his work ethic, plus the fact that he has none of the baggage of Julio Lugo, who was less than thrilled with his time with the Dodgers and has a history of spousal abuse.

·          Don’t believe the hype that the Cubs will center a trade with the Yankees around Mark Prior and Alex Rodriguez.  Though Prior was a former Number One pick for the Yankees that they failed to sign, this deal would be a certified bust for the Yankees as Prior can’t be relied on to stay healthy.  Any deal with the Yankees for Rodriguez would have to be centered around Carlos Zambrano or no deal at all.

·          Texas Rangers Utility Starter Mark DeRosa could remain in Texas and still play alongside Hank Blalock in the lineup.  There has been some talk that maybe DeRosa could become the regular starting third baseman with Blalock being moved to the Designated Hitter role permanently.