The Rangers Report

Team Record As Of August 28, 2007

58-72, 4th In The AL West

September Call-Ups

Having to scrap the additions to the 40 man for now, but I’ve instead need to work on something else. 

September Call Ups.

Here’s who we could see up for the Rangers after September 1st.

• Armando Galarraga (RHP) – The big fish of the group, Galarraga was the third prospect traded in the Alfonso Soriano trade, Galarraga had a poor 2006 season, mostly after trying to recover from heavy workloads as well as being fresh of Tommy John.  He’s since become beastly for both the Frisco Roughriders and the Oklahoma Redhawks and was even considered to be named the starter on Saturday until it was decided Jamey Wright would play.  He’ll likely be a part of the odd six man rotation idea that the Rangers have going.
• A.J. Murray (RHP) – The Bullpen can use another lefty and Murray is showing signs of improvement.  There’s also the possibility that he could begin to get work as a starter, as that’s how the organization views him long term.
• Edinson Volquez (RHP) – Simply put, Volquez has had a excellent season and deserves a shot to prove that he’s ready to finally be a viable rotation option and not simply just a intriguing arm that can’t get it done.
• Chris Stewart (C) – Stewart will be the third catcher and will be auditioning for the backup role next year.
• Victor Diaz (RF) – Diaz is also on the hot seat and needs to prove that he’s ready to mash at the big league level.  He could make life difficult to Nelson Cruz in the coming days, especially if he really tears it up.
• Freddy Guzman (CF) – Another guy fighting for his job, Guzman needs to prove he’s worth his 40 Man spot, otherwise he’ll be DFA’d and tried to pass through waivers.

Centerfield In Texas

Though the Rangers have had some good work in centerfield from Marlon Byrd, the Rangers could use an upgrade in centerfield.  I’m not sure Byrd can sustain this rate and he’s a much worse player outside of Rangers Ballpark.

So, is there any available options out there to help improve?

One route is externally.  The Rangers could try to acquire one of the free agent centerfielders in the market this off-season, with Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand, and Corey Patterson, with Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome behind them all.  Signing any of them except for Fukudome would result in the loss of a second round pick (as the Rangers’ 1st rounder is all but assured to be a Top 5.) 

A better option would be to pursue a trade option, with three options available in the East in Boston’s Coco Crisp, New York’s Johnny Damon and Tampa’s Rocco Baldelli.

Crisp is one year away from free agency and he has prospect Jacoby Ellsbury breathing down his neck for the job.  Boston could look at unloading Crisp to make room for Ellsbury and use the savings to improve other parts of the offense or bullpen if they so desire.  I’m not sure why type of trade could be reached, but maybe the Rangers could make a deal if the parts are unable to match.  The price shouldn’t be exorbant because Crisp only has one more year left on his deal.  Then again, this deal could backfire, considering that the Rangers would be in the same boat next year.

Damon is also an option, as he can play center to a certain extent and could be rested by Byrd or Murphy if need be.  He’s locked in for two more years and by the time he’s ready, centerfield prospect Julio Borbon could be ready to take over.  The problem here is that New York would seek to cash in on Damon similar to how they cashed in on Sheffield last year.  I’m not sure that Texas is willing to give up some of their lower level prospects, and certainly not Chris Davis, a slugging third baseman that may be moved to first that is near ready, and would be someone New York would covet.  Plus, Damon could veto the deal and he’s beginning to decline.

Baldelli is another option, as he has an affordable contract and can hit in the middle of the order.  He’s a strong defender as well.  The problem with the Baldelli hasn’t played much over the last five years and has more injury issues than Damon.  And while he might not cost as much as Damon (thanks to the Devil Rays now having a set outfield of Young, Upton and Crawford), there isn’t any proof that the Baldelli can stay healthy.

The Rangers could try to work some type of four man outfield, depending on who stays.  The Rangers currently need to figure out what to do with the mass amount of outfielders they have on the roster right now.  Frank Catalonotto, Victor Diaz, Byrd, Murphy, and Nelson Cruz all need playing time and if the Rangers are to acquire Baldelli or another centerfielder, they need to move one or both of Diaz or Cruz to allow regular time for Catalonotto, Byrd and Murphy along with the assumed acquisition of Baldelli.

Washington Wants A “Natural” First Baseman

Texas needs a regular first baseman.  Right now, Texas has a #### combination of Frank Catalanotto, Brad Wilkerson and Saltalamacchia sharing time, but the Rangers want a regular first baseman, one that has experience as the position.  And of those three, Cat can’t play the infield anymore, Salty’s catching full time next year and Wiffy is likely history.  Washington has made it clear however, that he wants a natural first baseman for next season.

Which leaves the trade market?

Anyone available that the Rangers could pursue?

Some.  Here are the best options right now:

• Nomar Garciaparra (Trade – Dodgers).  The Dodgers appear to have bitten off more than they could chew by bringing Garciaparra back this season instead of simply allowing him to leave this off-season.  While the financial commitment to Nomar isn’t big, he’s blocking James Loney, who should be playing first from now on, and is blocking Andy LaRoche, who should be playing third.  Nomar could put up big numbers in Arlington and may accept a trade to Texas (his wife, Mia, is from here) and could be guaranteed a place to play.  It would be a worthwhile gamble for one year, after which the Rangers could promote Chris Davis to play first for one more year.
• Adam LaRoche (Trade – Pirates).  The Pirates could be interested to trade LaRoche to the Rangers after the improvement of prospect Steven Pearce, who could provide roughly what LaRoche has given them this season at a fraction of the price.  Honestly, this deal does make some sense, as not only would it allow the Pirates to get less expensive, it would also allow them to acquire a package of players in exchange.  I would likely start a package built around Laird, a young catcher that could benefit in the NL, plus would allow him to split time with Robby Paulino.  A package of Luis Mednoza, Laird, and maybe Joaquin Arias or Elvis Andrus might do it.  Then again, it’s the Pirates, and for all I know, they would do it for Laird straight up or as a way to get rid of the carcass of Matt Morris.
• Todd Helton (Trade – Rockies).  This deal could be done, since the Rockies are just looking to get Helton’s contract off the books and were willing to do it for relief help last year.   The Rangers again might be able to do it for a package revolving around Laird, who would love his new home, along with a package of Mendoza, Scott Feldman, and change.  Maybe.  The big issue would be getting Helton to waive his no trade.
• Chad Tracy (Trade – Diamondbacks).  Tracy was reportedly offered to the Rangers in a potential Mark Teixeira deal, but the deal didn’t progress enough beyond the “WTF?  That’s It?” stage.  Tracy’s stock is down enough that the Rangers would consider a deal and he wouldn’t be expensive.  The only issue is whether or not the rumors are true that Tracy’s body is deteriorating and that he might not be able to play for much longer.  Interestingly enough, the Rangers have a prospect of the same name.  Imagine the hillarity if both players made the active roster in the same year.
• Hank Blalock (Positional Move).  There are some worries that Hank Blalock may not be able to throw to first anymore and may not be able to recover from his recent surgery and be able to play third base.  So, there has been talk about using Travis Metcalf, a smooth defender with some offensive promise, and moving Hank to First.  Hey, at least it wouldn’t be expensive…
• Nick Johnson (Trade – Nationals).  Nick Johnson is done for the year and doubtful for Spring Training, but with the Nationals making a commitment to Dmitri Young, the Nats’ former first baseman is now likely to be shopped in a trade.  Johnson is attractive in that he’s a solid defender, makes hard contact and hits with some power and is generally regarded to be a good clubhouse guy.  But how healthy is he and is he ready to play?  And will Jim Bowden be crazy enough to demand two top prospects like he did for Young at the deadline and Chad Cordero?
• Dan Johnson (Trade – Athletics).  It’s not that farfetched that the Rangers could do a trade with their interdivision rivals.  Laird came from the Athletics, as did John Rheinnecker, so obviously Beane has no problem trading in the division.  Johnson is a candidate to be non-tendered, as he’s out of options and has cooled off since his hot start after returning to the big league club.  I would think a deal would be done where it wouldn’t be too expensive and the deal wouldn’t bite the Rangers in the future.  Then again, they could always try to get him after he’s nontendered and not have to send Oakland ####, so we’ll see.
• Sean Casey (FA – Tigers). Casey isn’t coming back after this season, as the Tigers are looking for a shortstop to allow them to move to Carlos Guillen to first base in order to reduce the wear on his body.  Casey is a capable defender, but offensively, he doesn’t offer much, which is a shame, as he seems to be a genuinely nice guy.

Before You Ask, No Pitching!!!

Before you go into the usual “The Rangers Need Pitching” mantra, no they don’t.  Here’s the rotation coming into next year.

• Kevin Millwood (RHP)
• Brandon McCarthy (RHP)
• Kason Gabbard (LHP)
• Vicente Padilla (RHP)
• Fifth Starter

That’s actually not a bad rotation.  Millwood has improved greatly after a rough start to the season and McCarthy and Gabbard look like they will have bright futures.  Padilla is having a rough season, but with some rest and work, he should be okay as the 4th man in the rotation.  There are also a lot of potential fifth starters that could potentially knock Padilla to the 5th spot if he’s not careful.  The Rangers will have Kameron Loe John Rheinecker and Edinson Volquez that can capably fill the spot, plus potentially Eric Hurley, Armando Galarraga, Luis Mendoza, Doug Mathis, and Josh Rupe waiting in Triple A for a shot.

There are enough internally options here, enough potential starting pitchers that can be 3rd or 4th guys (with Hurley capable of being a 1) that the Rangers have the luxery of building a staff from within.  Hell, after the years they have had, Galarraga and Mendoza could become coveted trade chips this season after doing well in Double and Triple A.

And with the off-season’s best starters looking like a Livan Hernandez and Julian Tavarez, I’m not sold on building externally, especially if it will cost a draft pick.

Potential Trade With Detroit On The Way

The Rangers are discussing trading an outfielder to the Detroit Tigers, who are looking for bench help.  The two trade targets are believed to be Brad Wilkerson or Frank Catalonotto, both of whom have cleared waivers and can be traded to anyone.  Of the two, Wiffy is the one most likely to be traded, as he’s a short term commitment that wouldn’t require much of value exchanged.  As for Cat, he’s next year’s starting left fielder and he’s on a tear, but the money involved would be prohibitive.

Rangers Notes (Majors)

• Part of why Willie Eyre has been destroyed as of late is apparently due to injury.  Eyre will be undergoing Tommy John Surgery and will be out of commission till 2009 at the earliest.  The Rangers won’t be picking up the tab for him to remain on the roster and he’ll likely be non-tendered.
• One of the best things John Daniels did was not to Sign Gary Matthews Jr. For 5 years, $50 million and instead sign Lofton to his one year, $6 million deal.  The Matthews’ deal was stupid back then and is stupider now, as Matthews has regressed to his old form, that of a fourth outfielder that isn’t good enough to play center, but can’t hit enough to be an outfield corner.  Matthews also ranks last in Zone Rating among all AL centerfielders.  Meanwhile, Lofton was a excellent defender here and was flipped for a solid young catching prospect, Max Ramirez, who is regarded to be a franchise catcher.  Add in the two draft picks gained for Matthews that brought in Michael Main and Evan Reed and the Rangers made out like bandits.

Next Week On The Rangers Report - Breaking Down The AFL Candidates, As Well As Naming My Minor League Players Of The Year.

I wasn't planning on posting until next week, but this just came over the wire.

Braves Setup Man Mike Gonzalez will undergo season ending Tommy John surgury and will be out until at least July of next year.

Gonzalez had complained of discomfort in the elbow and suffered a noticable drop in velocity.  The Braves suspected that it might be a ligiment from their past experiences with John Smoltz and others.

Secretly, I'll be the Pirates are celebrating over this.  They sold high and got a productive first baseman out of the deal, while keeping their bullpen integrity, for the most part, intact. 

Wow.  It's not often you see John Schuholtz outfoxed.   Kudos to you Buccos.

After a much needed day off, it's back to the previews.

Let's see where the Hat wants to go today...

It's back to the National League for everyone.

Atlanta Braves

The Bravos finally fell from grace last season as the neglect of the bullpen, plus the combustion of the starting rotation, cost them the chance to extend their dominance over the National League East for another year.  However, the team isn’t hopeless, as there are some promising acquisitions by John Schurholz, plus players that stepped up as the season went downhill, that could result in a Braves team that could surpass expectations.

Starting Rotation

1. John Smoltz (RHP) – The resident ace is back for another go around with the Braves, as they wisely picked up his affordable option to keep him in Atlanta.  Smoltz is older now and he’s lost a bit of his edge as far as his stuff goes, but he is still very much a dominant pitcher, even at the age of 39.  Smoltz will head up the rotation once again and should rack up about 15 wins or so, depending on the bullpen. 
2. Tim Hudson (RHP) – Hudson was brutal last season, as lefties murdered him throughout the year.  Despite a winning record, Hudson hasn’t been the ace that he was back when he was with Oakland.  He should be a solid starter again, raking up wins in the double digits and at ERA in the low 4’s, but this isn’t what the Braves signed up for when they traded for him back in 2005. 
3. Mike Hampton (LHP) – Hampton hasn’t lived up to the gaudy contract given to him by the Rockies, but he hasn’t been bat either for the Braves.  He missed last season thanks to Tommy John surgery, but reports are promising that he can at least contribute to the Braves this season as a middle of the rotation guy.
4. Chuck James (LHP) – James was electric when he moved from the pen to the rotation, going 11-4 with a 3.93 ERA after the move.  With a full season now available, James should give the Braves some solid production as the number four guy.
5. Oscar Villareal (RHP) – Villareal was effective in four starts last season and deserves a shot to be a starter.  If he should falter, well, the Braves have got Kyle Davies to fall back on, though he shouldn’t be a liability as the fifth starter.  However, Villareal might not be long in Atlanta, as they view him as expendable.

Bullpen

• Bob Wickman (Closer) – Wickman lead the American League with 45 saves in 2005 and posted a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings after being traded to the Braves last season.  He’s averaged 30 saves over the past three seasons.  However, he is 37 and showed signs of vulnerability last season.  Wickman has been able to last this long because of the movement that he gets on his sinker and slider, though he was far more hittable in Cleveland, where he had a 4.18 ERA.  I don’t know.  It’s tough to project how long Wickman will last.   Pitchers tend to age more gracefully in the NL, where the DH is non-existent.  I think he’ll be solid, but unspectacular, this year.
• Mike Gonzalez (Setup Man) – Atlanta also wanted a setup man that could spot close if necessary, so they pulled the trigger on the deal that sent lefty Mike Gonzalez to them in exchange for Adam LaRoche.  Gonzalez adds depth to the Atlanta pen and is actually a better option to close than Wickman, as Gonzalez has a far better fastball and slider than he does.  The only problem is health, but the only way to prove that a reliever is durable is to toss him out there and see what happens. 
• Rafael Soriano (RHP) – Soriano, when healthy, is a dominant reliever.  In 2006 he posted a 2.25 ERA in 60 innings.  He was also sidelined at one point with shoulder soreness.  His season was cut short last year when he was struck by a line drive in the head in late August.  Soriano is viewed as a closer in waiting, thanks to his mid-90’s fastball and hard slider, but again, bad luck seems to follow him whenever he gets a crack at the job.  Though Gonzalez is the setup man, Soriano will provide great 7th inning relief for the Braves and should provide a spirited challenge for Gonzalez next season when the role of closer is up for grabs.
• Kyle Davies (RHP) – An terribly inconsistent pitcher, Davies will likely be moved into the bullpen in order to allow Oscar Villareal a chance to be the starter.  Davies could get an opportunity if one of the starters gets hurt or if Villareal flames out, but I do think that Davies meeds some time to work out some kinks in his performance before he starts again. 
• Joey Devine (RHP) – I think the Braves rushed Devine to the majors and he paid heavy for it every since.  However, during his September callup, Devine showed that dominance that made him a First Round pick, racking up a ERA of zero over 8 appearances.  Devine will likely make the big club, but he’s no longer viewed now as the closer of the future.
• Macay McBride (LHP) – A solid lefty reliever that can last an inning only, but he’s also not a lefty specialist, as he can strikeout both right and left handed bats.
• Chad Paronto (RHP) – This right hander finally returned to the majors this year and was solid.  He completes the bullpen.

Projected Lineup

1. Edgar Renteria (SS) – With the lack of a leadoff hitter, Renteria will probably fill that role for the Braves.  Renteria experienced a rebirth upon returning to the national league, returning to All-Star form an improving his fielding, committing less errors than he did in Boston (possibly due to the fact he didn’t have those crazy fans after his head.)   He has lost some of the range that he had back in his Cardinal days, but he’s serviceable enough to where his defense doesn’t kill you.  With two years left on a deal mostly paid for by the Red Sox, Renteria should stay in Atlanta for the remaining two years left, in order to give the kids a chance to grow.
2. Kelly Johnson (2B) – The writing for Marcus Giles may have been on the wall as soon as last May, as the Braves asked Johnson to begin learning second base before he underwent TJ.  Johnson is athletic, having been a shortstop, and has decent range for the position.  The question is whether or not he’ll be able to hit.  He’s got decent plate discipline, and the Braves envision him on being their leadoff man.  I’d hold off on that until Johnson proves himself.
3. Chipper Jones (3B) – With LaRoche gone, the onus is now on Jones and, well, Jones to help power the lineup.  Chipper is still very powerful and can be a threat in the lineup, but injuries are beginning to take their toll, as he missed time last season.  He should be good for another .300/25 HR/110 RBI season.  He should also be good for another 15 games on the DL.
4. Andruw Jones (CF) – Likely Jones’ last season with the Braves, due to free agency and the increasing payroll restrictions on the club.  Jones still brings a solid presence in center, despite the questions about his conditioning and his decreasing range, but that bat is still potent and dangerous in the middle of this Braves lineup.  The strikeouts will always be a problem, but Jones will continue to be a run producer for years to come.
5. Brian McCann (C) – With LaRoche gone, McCann moves into the role of run producer.  He overachieved last year with the batting average, as he never hit above .290 in the minors.  Still, it could be because the guy is still young and he’s still developing as a hitter (it happens.)  It’s more likely he’ll hit .290 with 20 or so homers and 100 RBI’s, depending on his lineup spot.  That’s still solid in any case and is more nitpicking on my part.  The biggest critique of McCann is his lack of an arm.  He threw out a Mike Piazza-esque 22% of baserunners last season.  Keep in mind he’s still quite young and needs time to grow, but to continue the Piazza comparisons, he was never really at throwing out runners and it never improved as he got older.
6. Jeff Francouer (RF) – Francouer put up another strong season, playing big as a defender and hitting for powering, hitting 29 dingers and driving in 103.  The biggest criticism is that Francouer has poor plate discipline and as a results racks up several strikeouts.  However, he seems to be getting a little more patient and he hits well in the clutch.  His athleticism has also lead to the belief that he might be able to handle centerfield.
7. Ryan Langerhans (LF) – It appears that Langerhans will be the starting left fielder, though Craig Wilson will see some time against left handed pitchers.  Langerhans was rather disappointing last season, with a drop in batting average and power being the most noticeable differences.  Still, he’s solid defensively and with regular playing time, he could again be a solid option in the back of the lineup.
8. Scott Thorman (1B) – The Braves really aren’t completely confident in Thorman's ability to serve as their starting first baseman, as seen by the signing of Craig Wilson.  Thorman doesn’t’ have the punch needed to keep the position and may only be keeping the spot warm for Jared Saltalamacchia. 

Bench

• Brayan Pena (C) – An okay catcher, Pena will likely continue to warm the bench unless injury (always a possibility with a catcher) crops up.  Pena is exactly what you want in a backup.  A decent defender whose bat won’t kill you.
• Craig Wilson (1B/OF) – Wilson will platoon at first base with Scott Thorton, who will be replacing the departed Andy LaRoche.  Wilson has great righthanded power, but gets murdered by lefties.  
• Willy Aybar (IF) – Aybar has a solid glove and hits relatively well enough that he wont’ be the death of you if he has to fill in for a extended period of time. 
• Chris Woodward (UTIL) – Woodward’s value is that he can play almost the entire infield, plus the outfield corners.  The bat is another story.
• Matt Diaz (LF/RF) – A total unknown so far, but he looks like he’ll make the team. He could be a bust.  Could be a valuable bat off the bench.

   

Farm System

The Braves do have some talent in the low minors, but for now, the system lacks talent that can help out now, as the 2005 promotions cleaned out much of the talent from the upper levels.  True, it’s possible some of the arms may surprise, but these are some of the few prospects that the Braves can work with in the meantime.

• Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C) – Salty, as he’ll be called here (as I don’t want to spell that name again) is a solid hitter who experienced a series of injuries last season that kept him from producing as he did in 2005.  With some time to recover, Salty is primed for a rebound year.  The only question is whether or not he’ll remain as a catcher.  Salty’s name was tossed about in trade proposals this past off-season.  It’s more likely that Salty will be converted to first base this year, since LaRoche is gone and since Salty’s injury troubles make it more sensible to keep him in a less stressful position.
• Brent Lillibridge (SS) – Lillibridge was the prospect acquired in the deal that sent Mike Gonzalez to the Braves.  He’s a very good defender with great range, hands and is on target when he makes the throw.  He’s got a high walk rate, a solid bat that can hit for average and for some good doubles power and is a huge threat on the bases.  He projects very similar to Rafael Furcal and if he continues to improve, he’ll make the big club as soon as next year, allowing the Braves to slide Renteria over to second.
• Matt Harrison (LHP) – Harrison is tall and has power stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid 90’s and he’s got a plus curve and changeup.  Harrison still need some work, but he could be a factor late in the season.

In Conclusion

The Braves are better, this season, as the offense is mostly there and the bullpen and rotation are much improved.  But, with the Mets’ strong lineup and bullpen, plus the much improved Phillies, who should compete for a Wild Card spot, I think the highest the Braves will finished is in third.

Final Result:                Third in National League East

Let's see who the Hat decides to favor today....

Ooooh, Shooter's Team!!!

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates look like they finally said enough was enough and finally let the kids play, in which there was some improvement in the team.  However, the Pirates are still very much a raw team, and despite some promising acquisitions, there remains a lot of work to be done.

Starting Rotation

1. Zach Duke (LHP) – Duke will likely head the staff, due to him being the most experienced member of the staff.  However, Duke has at lot more of growing up to do, as he was hammered last season, winning only 10 of 25 decisions and compiling 4.47 ERA.  Even more troubling is that opponents hit .302 off of him, though he did prove to be remarkable durable.  Much of this can be blamed on inexperience, which can be testified in the fact that he went 5-7 with a 3.65 ERA in after the All-Star break.  Duke should continue to improve, as he’s got quality stuff and should have a future in the league. 
2. Ian Snell (RHP) – Snell moved into the rotation for good this year and is the only Pirate pitcher to have a winning record, going 14-11 with a 4.74 ERA and led the team in strikeouts.  He should also continue to improve as he logs in innings.  The only question is his durability, as he’s small for a starting pitcher at 5’11. 
3. Paul Maholm (LHP) – Maholm is also a solid lefty, but like Duke he struggled early on in the season as he continued to adapt to pitching in the majors.  Of the young Pirates, Maholm has the deepest arsenal of the bunch, but his fastball is the weakest of the four, making him a liability for the long ball.  He could become a solid lefty workhorse, similar to Kenny Rogers, provided that the rotator cuff problems he suffered at end of the season don’t become a long-term problem.
4. Tom Gorzelanny (LHP) – Gorzelanny was one of the top pitchers in Triple-A before being promoted to the majors on July 6th.  He’s likely not going back after he went 2-5 with a 3.79 ERA over 14 games and 12 starts.  Scouts feel that Gorzelanny might be the most talented of the young Bucs due to his good velocity and his excellent changeup.  If he and the others develop as planned, the Pirates could have the potential to have THREE solid lefties in the rotation, something that no other team has. 
5. Tony Armas Jr. (RHP) – Still young, but Armas isn’t what he used to be.  He was rocked pitching at RFK, a pitcher’s park, as his command and control are both really off.  Still, Armas has the potential to be able to come back from the derailment his career has gone through, though Pittsburgh’s reputation as the place where pitchers come to die isn’t promising.  He’s still a much better option than a former Yankees starter in the pen…

Bullpen

• Salomon Torres (Closer) – Torres was effective in limited action last season when filling in for Mike Gonzalez.  With Gonzalez now in Atlanta, Torres will get the opportunity to be the closer.  His numbers weren’t quite as dominating as Gonzalez’s were, but overall he should be solid.
• Dan Kolb (Setup Man) – Kolb will likely be the setup man, a duty that he functions well on.  Kolb doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but his effectiveness is due to the fact that he induces so many ground balls.  With a improved defense, the Bucs should be able to give Kolb the defense he needs to be successful.
• Damaso Marte (LHP) – Marte is a lefty that the Pirates have obtained from the White Sox last year that will also help out Kolb as far as setup duties go.  Marte has been one of the more consistent bullpen performers in baseball for the last five years.
• John Gabrow (LHP) – Another talented lefty, Gabrow was having a solid season until a dreadful September blew up his ERA. 
• Shawn Chacon (RHP) - Chacon has fallen far after he went 7-3, 2.85 with the Yankees in 2005.  Thankfully, he’s not in the rotation and will be a swingman, unless he’s able to re-establish himself as a legitimate starter.  Doesn’t seem likely at this point, though God knows that the Pirates could use some luck like that happening.
• Matt Capps (RHP) – The fact that Capps is near the top of the roster in terms of wins should be troubling.  But Capps is a good young reliever that’s coming to his own and could make for a dynamite setup corps if Kolb and Torres work out as planned.
• John Sharpless (RHP) – Another solid option that got his crack into the pen last season, if Sharpless continues to be dominant, he would be a final piece of what could be a dynamite bullpen for the Pirates.

Starting Lineup

1. Freddy Sanchez (3B) – Sanchez finally took that leap that the Red Sox hoped he would take, becoming a capable everyday starter.  He’s a solid contract hitter and though he doesn’t have much home run power, he gets on base and has enough doubles power to give himself some breathing room.  He’s a capable defender and with a solid work ethic that could slide over to second in time. 
2. Jose Castillo (2B) – One of the better second basemen of the season's first half, batting .279 with 11 homers, Castillo is still young enough to be able to grow some more into a solid number two hitter, as Sanchez has leadoff potential.  Most scouts feel he’s got 20 home run potential, which was evident last season before his slump in the second half.  He’s due for a breakthrough, and he’ll most likely get it this year.
3. Jason Bay (LF) – The face of the franchise, Bay didn’t have as good of a year as his 2005, but that’s just nitpicking.  He was still very productive as a run producer and the power is excellent.  Bay has stated that he didn’t feel comfortable in the cleanup role, but this year should be better as he’s got legitimate protection behind him in the lineup. 
4. Adam LaRoche (1B) – LaRoche finally had that breakout season last year that so many people had been waiting for.  He showed strong power numbers and is just entering his prime as a hitter.  He’s also a slick fielder at first base and improves the infield defense by a whole lot.  With Bay moving down to the number three spot, LaRoche will hit cleanup and will provide protection for Bay.  He’ll get his RBI chances and PNC Park is a lot kinder to left handed hitters than Turner Field.  Look for him to continue to put up those numbers from last year.
5. Xavier Nady (RF) – Nady finally proved that he could be a solid regular in the majors after the Mets acquired him in a trade for Mike Cameron last November.  The fact that it took this long for Nady to finally blossom makes me wonder about the Padres ability to develop prospects.  Nady's calling card is that he has great power, but his long swing often leads to loads of strikeouts and a mediocre batting average.  With the arrival of LaRoche, Nady will hit fifth for a surprisingly potent Pirates lineup.
6. Ronny Paulino (C) – A pretty nifty catcher, Paulino put up a good average and had some reasonable doubles power, but he’s still growing as a hitter and could develop some more power down the line.  He needs to improve his defense, though it’s his offense that will win him the starting job.
7. Chris Duffy (CF) – Duffy is the likely favorite for the centerfield job in PNC.  He hit okay for the amount of games he played, far below what is expected from a centerfielder, and is a stolen base threat.  He’s a solid defender, but he just needs to get his bat in order for him to stay as a regular.  It doesn’t help that Andrew McCutchen is rising quickly in the minors and could cost him his job if he has a strong Spring Training. 
8. Jack Wilson (SS) – One of the worst shortstops in the majors, Wilson is a black hole in the lineup.  Putting him at the end helps minimize his impact.  Defensively, he needs to minimize his errors, as he had a career high in errors last season with 18.

Bench

• Ryan Doumit (C) – Doumit had a horrible year offensively, which further solidified Paulino as the starter.  A productive winter league campaign could lead him to challenge for the starting job if Paulino starts off slowly.
• Nate McLouth (OF) – Though McLouth did nothing to help establish himself as a regular, it’s still possible that McLouth could become a average regular.  However, with prized prospect Andrew McCutchen on the way and Chris Duffy likely to be a utility outfielder, any chance of that happening would be with another team. 
• Brad Eldred (1B) – Eldred was considered a challenger for the first base job during Spring Training, but injury cost him the entire 2006 season.  With LaRoche now in Pittsburgh, Eldred is left riding the pine.
• Jose Bautista (IF/OF) – Primary use is as a lefty killer off the bench.
• Rajai Davis (CF) – He’s fast.  And umm, that’s it.

Down On The Farm…

The Pirates lost a lot of farm system depth after the massive amount of promotions last season and it doesn’t look like there will be any major graduations other than who is listed below.  So, the Pirates have to work with who they have now, because there won’t be any help coming from the farm anytime soon.

• Andrew McCutchen (CF) – McCutchen is the Pirates’ best prospect now that the pitchers have graduated.  McCutcheon has got great speed and has can hit for power.  His bat speed is excellent and his plate discipline is fantastic.  McCutcheon doesn’t have a strong arm, but that’s just nitpicking at this point.  At the moment, McCutcheon will likely be headed to Triple A, but there isn’t much  stopping him from breaking into the majors now and taking the starting centerfield job at some point this season.
• Jesse Chavez (RHP) – Obtained from Texas in exchange for the Kip Wells experience (which lasted two stops), Chavez was one of the better reliever prospects in the Rangers' farm system.  He's not a big guy, but his arm is good, causing scouts to compare him to Julian Tavarez.  Chavez's best pitch is a low to mid 90's mph fastball that touches 96 at times, but he lacks a breaking pitch and there are some durability concerns because of his size.  Still, he's got enough in him to maybe be a quality setup man, which seems to be the only thing to come out of Pittsburgh's farm system these days.
• Brad Lincoln (RHP) – Lincoln was a star pitcher and hitter at the University of Houston, but despite his potential with the offense, his long-term future is at pitcher.  Lincoln pounds the strike zone with a mid 90’s fastball and follows it up with a good curveball and a promising changeup.  He’s also capable of lasting deep into games, always a plus.  The problem is that at 5’11, he’s short for a pitcher and durability will be in question.  But the Pirates are high on him and they will begin testing Lincoln this season to see how far he can advance into the system. 

In Conclusion

If the Pirates' mix of young talent gels this season, this team could contend in the NL Central.  But unfortunately, that doesn't look to be the case.

Final Standing:  Fifth In the National League Central

A few weeks ago, Shooter, UltraMega and myself were debating the merits of trying to provide a fit for the Pirates and the Devil Rays, giving the Pirates the masher they needed and the D-Rays the closer they needed.

We also discussed how the Braves needed to hang on to Adam LaRoche, a player that is a good young talent that for some reason or another has never been shown much love from Braves management.

Well, apparently, none of the organizations were listening, as the Pirates have a tenative deal trading closer Mike Gonzalez and a player to be named later to the Braves for LaRoche.

LaRoche should mash a lot better in Pittsburgh, where his power translates much better, and will get a lot more RBI chances with Jason Bay hitting in front of him.  Salomon Torres will now become the closer, and the Pirates have kept their depth in the bullpen together without compromising any of their young starters.

As for Atlanta, they've not only rebuilt about half of their infield, but they've also shot themselves in the foot as far as their future goes.  Andruw Jones is gone after this year and Chipper Jones isn't getting any younger.  Plus, the farm system is virtually barren of ready talent, making this trade a lot more of a head scratcher.

Still, they have bullpen depth and the rotation looks to be better after last season's debacle, so we'll see.  It's possible that Atlanta could contend for the Wild Card spot in a weak National League again, but I can't help but feel that they gave up too soon on LaRoche, a player that could have contributed for a few more years with them, instead of fllpping him for a closer that won't even be closing this season.

• Pirates Grade:  A
• Braves Grade:  B- B+

On The Block:  Todd Helton

Sorry about the lack of an update yesterday.  This week we’ll focus on the corners.

Why He’s On The Block: Helton is the face of the franchise and has one of the most lucrative contracts in baseball.  He’s a perennial All-Star for the Rockies and puts up great numbers annually.  But Helton is also getting older and the desire for a title is growing.  Colorado publicly doesn’t want to deal their franchise player, but they would be crazy not to listen if a intriguing offer came along.

Negotiable:  No.  The Rockies know that Helton is their most valuable trade chip.  However,

What He Offers:  Helton is 32 and still able to crush the baseball.  Here’s what he offers:

·          Plus:  Despite some Coors Field inflation, crushes the ball.

·          Plus:  Good defensive player.

·          Plus:  Draws walks often.

·          Plus:  Excellent Plate Discipline

·          Minus:  Not a fast player.

·          Minus:  Expensive player.

He Stay Or Will He Go:  70%-30% on him staying, since he’s the Rockies’ main drawing card.  However, if the price is right, Colorado could be willing to listen.  Helton holds the final approval, so, with that in mind, here’s where he could end up:

·          Boston Red Sox – 50%.   Boston is the likeliest candidate as far as who could make a run on Helton.  Helton would allow Youkilis to slide back to Third and Helton would take over as the number three hitter, with Ortiz and Ramirez behind him.  Helton’s contract runs for a couple of more years, after which Helton could be allowed to walk.  The Red Sox would have to give up some pitching, but they could also package Mike Lowell as part of the deal.

·          Atlanta Braves – 40%.  Atlanta was inquiring during the winter about available first baseman, wanting more power behind the Jones Boys.  Helton would be more than capable of fulfilling this role, but Atlanta would likely have to send Adam LaRoche back to Colorado along with possibly John Thomson and pitching.

·          The Los Angeles Angels of West Coast Choppers – 10%.   If Casey Kotchman continues to flounder, the Angels could deal from within their farm system depth to bring in help for Vlad Guerrero.  However, the Angels have shown a reluctance to deal some of their farm system products, no matter how roadblocked they could be.