Today, the hat says...we're going North of the Border.
Team Previews 2008 – Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have in recent years made the setp toward respectability, but that has come in spite of of bad signings, bad drafts and bad personnel decisions overall by management, specifically J.P Riccardi. To put it bluntly, the Jays are in a tough spot, as they don't suck as bad as some of the other teams in the AL, but they aren't as good as the cream of the crop.
Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay (RHP) – Halladay is still an effective pitcher, though he has begun depending more on groundballs these days instead of flat out dominating hitters like he used to. He’s still a bit of a health risk, but as long as that knuckle-curve of his remains solid and the fastball low, he should be dominant again.
A.J. Burnett (RHP) – Gifted, but injured, Burnett is entering his walk year, as he’s likely to opt out of his current contract to hit free agency this coming off-season. Burnett could be a legitimate top of the rotation starter, but he either gets injured or struggles just when it looks like he’s turned a corner. However, because of the money at stake, look for him to actually pitch nearly a complete season, with decent numbers.
Dustin McGowan (RHP) – Best pure stuff of the young starters, McGowan should be able to elevate his status enough to where he can be considered a capable number two. He’s got four good pitches, including his fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and has some ink to it. His only real weakness is lefties, but aside from that, he could effectively replace Burnett as soon as next season, provided that the Jays have some help to replace his spot in the rotation.
Shaun Marcum (RHP) – I’m not sold on Marcum, as I feel he gets by more on the command of his average stuff than anything else. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fourth starter, it just means don’t expect him to be lights out. Last year is probably the best case scenario for him.
Jesse Litsch (RHP) – Litsch is an average fifth starter that depends on his defense to help him pitch effectively.
Bullpen
B.J. Ryan (Closer) – Ryan’s injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery were probably a prime example of some of the worst
Jeremy Accardo (Setup Man) – The fact that the Jays were able to get him for a declining Shea Hillenbrand amounts to Highway Robbery. Accardo will likely be moving back to the setup role, as it appears that Ryan will be ready at the start of the season.
Casey Janseen (RHP) – Janseen is likely going to remain in the pen as the primary 7th inning man, a role that he succeeded in last season, though the Jays have made note that they haven’t given up on him as a starter.
Gustavo Chacin (LHP) – I’m not sure why Chacin is still on the roster, but it looks like he’ll remain in the bullpen as a swingman unless Litsch or someone else plays their way out.
Jason Frasor (RHP) - Only as good as his command takes him.
Brandon League (RHP) – League failed to establish himself as a setup man last season, but he still has a lot of use as a middle reliever, with the chance to setup later.
Scott Downs (LHP) - Dominant lefty reliever completes the pen.
Starting Lineup
Reed Johnson (LF) – Johnson was effective as a leadoff man in 2006, but injuries killed his season last year and resulted in the lack of effectiveness. Johnson will likely share time with Matt Stairs this season.
Lyle Overbay (1B) - Not a great power hitter, Overbay has at least done a decent job of getting on base before injuries hit.
Vernon Wells (CF) - A disappointment, Wells needs to bounce back from a terrible year at the plate. With the departure of Glaus, a lot more is riding on Wells' ability to drive in runs.
Frank Thomas (DH) - Still a capable masher, Thomas will see the bulk of at bats at DH. It looks like his health issues are behind him, but keep in mind he is older and will need regular rest.
Alex Rios (RF) - Rios is rapidly turning into a solid all around player. He's able to hit for power and a decent average and isn't a slouch on the basepaths either. He's a great right fielder. All in all, here is one long term commitment I wouldn't mind the Jays making.
Scott Rolen (3B) – Rolen is now in the fold and frankly, this is a bad trade. There is a difference between "passionate" and "high maintenence." Rolen is the later. He's a decent defender, but there is no guarnatee that he'll stay healthy, especially now that he's playing on turf.
Gregg Zaun (C) – Zaun is rapidly declining as a catcher. The only thing he really can do now is hit lefties.
Aaron Hill (2B) - A nifty second baseman, Hill should be on an All Star squad in the near future. His defensive value will help make up for the questionable signing up next...
David Eckstein (SS) - The Blue Jays are betting that Eckstein and Rolen will bring in some of that "gritty" atmosphere from St. Louis. Eckstein is old, not a great bet to stay healthy and can't hit. That spells winner!
Bench
John McDonald (SS) - A defensive shortstop, McDonald will likely spell Eckstein late in games.
Matt Stairs (UTIL) - There is still some life in that bat, as Stairs enjoyed one of his best seasons last year. You'll see him pop up all around the diamond, spelling Johnson, Overbay and Thomas when necessary.
Rod Barajas (C) - Barajas signs up with the very team he spurned last season. Regardless of my personal feeligns of Barajas, he may have at least another solid year left in him. All he needs is the chance to sieze it.
Marco Scutaro (INF) – Scutaro may wind up beating out Eckstein for the starting gig at short this season. Scutaro can play short and second and has a bit of pop to his bat. But that's really about all he can do.
Minor League Notables
Curtis Thigpen (C) – Thigpen did well enough in limited action last season that he’ll likely be the starter come 2009. While he’ll likely spend the year in the minors, should injuries decimate
Ricky Romero (LHP) - Famously picked ahead of Troy Tulowitzski, Romero may be ready to contribute at the end of the season. His ceiling is a Number Four starter.
Final Thoughts
This is really Toronto’s last shot at contending, as this team was built to win now. After this season, there will be a lot of people leaving the organization via free agency and Toronto lacks the major pieces in the farm other than Travis Snider that will help out long term. Even then, unless Toronto gets the benefit of a lot of injuries among their division mates, they are, at best, the third best team in the division.
Final Prediction - 3rd Place, American League East.
The Rangers could have made a better offer than what the Twins actually got for Johan Santana.
While the Twins ultimately got a decent package of high upside prospects in Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey, the Rangers had the prospects to pull off a trade. However, I won’t tell you what the trade would have been, though I can tell you it would have kicked the #### out of the Mets offer.
Santana wouldn’t have approved a trade here.
First of all, this isn’t exactly the best ballpark for a flyball pitcher to flourish. Second of all, Santana, due to his no trade clause, would have vetoed a deal, as he had tremendous leverage over where he could go.
While Santana would have given the Rangers a top of the rotation starter, there simply was no way he would have approved a trade here, even if the Rangers offered six players, many of them good ones (#### it. RHP Eric Hurley, CF Brandon Boggs, SS Joaquin Arias, 2B German Duran, C Max Ramirez and CF Marlon Byrd), the Rangers wouldn’t even have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with him. It just wasn’t feasible.
On A Side Note…
Oakland, going back to the Santana deal one more time, probably had a better package in return than the Twins got for Santana. While I’m not high on the pitchers they received, Carlos Gonzalez should be a stud once he hits the big leagues and they got a hell of a masher in Chris Carter, who will be a beast once he comes up to the majors.
God I wish the Rangers could have gotten Carter. Stupid Otsuka….
Fearing Bedard In Seattle
I am going to fear Seattle’s rotation if and when the Bedard deal is done. While I should be happy about the fact that Seattle will be parting with some solid blue chippers, Bedard isn’t going to be a treat to face. In fact, matching up Millwood and Padilla against Hernandez and Bedard would be like sending you out to a gunfight with only a pair of pistols, while the enemy is firing bazookas. You have no chance (unless a rocket misfires, blowing up your opponent. Ah Doom, how I miss thee…)
Bringing Ryan Back A Complicated Affair
Nolan Ryan is apparently interested in the vacant Rangers’ presidency gig and Tom Hicks has been active in courting Ryan to return to the Rangers.
However, actually bringing Ryan back is going to be a lot of work.
For starters, Houston might not be willing to let Ryan go, as Drayton McLane may decide to expand Ryan's role in terms of player development and decisions. Plus, he enjoys the PR boom that Ryan gives the Astros, especially considering that he owns their Double and Triple A Franchises.
Which is another complications. Would the Rangers allow Ryan to keep his two minor league teams? Or would they force him to cede control of the franchises, likely to his sons Reese and Ried, if he's to be hired.
And if Ryan is indeed made President, how would that affect Jon Daniels' power. J.D. has pretty much acted pretty autonomous and if he were to lose control over some of the minor league and player development phases (which have been vastly improved since he took over), how would that hinder his ability to run the big league club?
I love Nolan, met him once (nice guy), but as much as I love him to come back to the Rangers, I don't know if the overall impact (non-economic) would be worth it.
Bad Job Of Roster Management
If you haven’t already seen, the Rangers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment a few days ago, likely in anticipation of a Marlon Byrd deal that isn’t going to happen.
My only question is why?
I know that the Rangers have some higher ceiling pitchers on the roster, but Galarraga has plenty of upside and could wind up being a Chad Qualls type reliever in a couple of years.
Why the designation?
If anyone deserved to be DFA”d, it was Nelson Cruz, who would have made it through waivers and would have been given a Spring Training Invite along with a minor league deal.
Instead, Galarraga gets the axe and he’ll likely get claimed on waivers by a team without 40 Man space, likely the Astros, who have room in their system and 40 for him.
Unless there is a trade coming in the next few days that we haven’t heard about, this isn’t a good move and one that’s likely to blow up in the faces of the Rangers. So far, there hasn't been word on him being claimed (8 days down, two to go.) I only hope that the Rangers' luck holds out.
One Year Later, Still Irritated At Rod Barajas
I'm still pissed at Rod Barajas.
You cost us one extra draft pick after booking from your original deal with the Jays, you ########.
So full of hate that, one year later, he signs with them anyway.
Grrr.....
Will post the Prospect Six Pack Later. I got to break something. Long day....
Now that the Santana deal is all but over, it's time to see what exactly will happen next.
I can tell you this much. A lot more things are going to fall into place now that the deal has been done.
Here's what is likely going to happen:
1. Bedard Deal Likely Going To Happen Soon
With the Santana deal likely gone, the Orioles should decide in the next couple of days whether or not to accept a deal from Seattle that will send Adam Jones and three or four prospects in exchange for their ace. It would be a good deal for the Orioles, who would gain a franchise centerfielder, more pitching depth with Chris Tillman likely headed in the deal, as well as a potential closer in George Sherill, all of whom are named in the deal. As for the Mariners, it's a lot of farm depth to give up, which I'd be hesitant to do for a palyer likely to test free agency in two years. And even then, there isn't a guarnatee that Bedard would put Seattle over the top with the Angels and their strong staff in the divison.
2. Final Decision On Sabathia To Be Made Soon
Look for also the Indians to decide once and for all on the fate of C.C. Sabathia, who is entering his walk year and likely looking for a contract similar to what Santana will get. Sabathia recently refused a 4 year, $70 million extension and wants a lot of money for a lot of years. While Sabathia is an excellent young pitcher, his condition habits have to give one pause. The union will also be pressuring Sabathia to hit free agency, due to their desire to increase player salaries all around. Personally, I think the Indians are going to ride out the year before seeing Sabathia likely sign with the Yankees, who covet Sabathia and asked the Indians about a trade midseason.
3. Remaining Free Agent Starters To Find Homes
Also, it's about now that we'll the remaining big free agent starters find homes. Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez and others should have their phones ringing now that the Santana and Bedard dramas are nearing their respective ends. This may work out to the benefit of several teams, as Colon, Lohse and Hernandez have all been looking for multiple years in contracts. After having to wait for a while, they may be more willing to settle for fewer years.
4. Blame to Be Assigned In The Bronx
Now that the actually Santana trade has been agreed to, look for blame to be assigned among the Yankees staff.
Hank Steinbrenner will likely blame Brian Cashman for not wanting to pull the trigger on a deal that could have seen Santana in pinstripes, saying that while prospects are fine and good, acquiring a legitimate ace of the staff outwieghed any possible risk of said prospects coming back to haunt them.
Cashman will likely disagree, stating that the price in prospects was simply too high. However, when you consider that you were, essentially, sacrificng Chein Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera and what appears to be now Ian Kennedy for Santana, the sacrifice really should have been an easy one. Say yes.
The fighting will likely turn ugly and should provide further proof that Cashman is out of New York at the end of the year.
5. Crisp Situation Now Front Burner
Now that the Santana deal has been resolved, look for Boston to finally decide what to do with Coco Crisp.
While the entire Santana drama was playing out, many of the spots that were logical places for the Red Sox to send Crisp to addressed their centerfield needs via trade or free agency, resulting in a much smaller market for his services.
Now, really, there are two places where the Red Sox could concievably go to shop Crisp around, three if you count Oakland and their sudden dearth of prospects, two if you realize that Oakland has no intention of shopping any of them just now.
Minnesota is the place where, ironically, the Red Sox could ask if they're interested. The Twins, now in full fledged rebuilding mode, could offer back a bullpen arm, possibly Jesse Crain, though a package from Boston for Joe Nathan would be much more plausible.
The other place is Baltimore, which could use Crisp and has some minor league depth to deal from, if Boston would prefer a player that isn't as close to free agency and could develop into something promising.
Or the Red Sox could just hang onto Crisp, though that would likely result in a lot of resentment from Crisp, who wants to start. Say all you want about choosing to start for a bad team or being a fourth outfielder for a great one. Most people would still prefer a starting gig.
This could turn out ugly if nothing is resolved soon.
Coming up later today! My Super Bowl Spread Plans!!!!!!!!!!!!
There is some wisdom in what the Astros did during the off-season, in the trades that brought them Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Michael Bourn. While Ken Rosenthal can rail against the deals all he wants, there is one thing you need to keep in mind.
None of the players traded was really a superstar. In fact, many weren't really all that good.
Yes, I know, Chad Qualls and Brad Lidge are plenty badass. But Lidge was likely gone in a year and Qualls, while solid, isn't a lights out reliever.
And of the prospects, the only one of real note was Troy Patton, who was sent to the Orioles. Everyone else that was dealt was either a disappointment or wasn't a world beater.
Overall, the Astros likely looked at their system, didn't like what they saw, and decided to spent what little collateral they had to improve their team. So long as they draft the best player available from now on, there is every reason that the Astros can replensih the farm in a short period of time.
That's IF they spend money and IF they draft the best player available, not just who will sign.
Koby Clemens Moving To Catcher
After another year of disappointment, the Astros are moving Koby Clemens back to catcher.
Originally drafted as a catcher, the Astros moved Clemens to third base, feeling that he would his stocky frame would allow him to take the abuse of catching, and his arm would be more than adequate from behind the plate. His bat, which has been disappointing thus far, would also look a lot better from behind the bag as well.
It's clear that there was some pressure on the Astros to draft Koby due to his dad, who was on the staff, but really, the Astros would have been better off spending the six figure bonus on someone else. Anyhow, Clemens could really provide some value from behind the plate if he's able to be a adequate catcher. Catching prospects are currently lacking in the majors and if Clemens can turn into at the very least a Gregg Zaun type of player, he's got a lot of value.
Astros Need To Re-Establish International Presence
Okay, one more, because quite frankly, I've had enough.
The Astros need to figure out why their pipeline to Latin America has dried up.
In the past, the Astros were kings of the Venezuelan Talent Market, with them signing player after player that was a serious talent. Some of the former talent mined from Venezuela: Bobby Abreu, Richard HIdalgo and Freddy Garcia, all of whom have enjoyed solid big league careers.
The talent has dried up.
Part of it has been Drayton McLane's tightening of the purse strings and refusing to pay up for big money talent in the draft or abroad. But the other part is that the Astros didn't evolve They weren't able to adjust for the times and as a result, several other teams now dominate the Venezuelan market and the Domincan, areas where the Astros did relatively well.
Whatever the case, it's time for Houston to re-establish their presence on the International Market.
Because all of the patch jobs, no matter the price, won't keep the franchise stable for much longer.
I've had about enough of the Johan Santana rumor mill.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that he'll be there opening day with the Twins and will remain with them till at least the trade deadline.
Why?
Because it's becoming increasinly obvious that there is a lot of chatter from all sides, but no action. Usually, the more rumors that are passed around about a player, the more unlikely it's going to happen. It's like talking the whole night how you're going to go after the prettiest girl in the room, but at the end of the night, you're going back home to nothing but a hard drive full of porn and a full box of kleenex.
Sorry for the visual analogy, but that's what it's become in the Santana Sweepstakes, which have become nothing more than just a lot of shock jock fodder and a whole lot of New York centric media opinions (oh god, the New York media opionions! Newsday has become unreadable!) I swear to god, if I hear one more Hank Steinbrenner quote, I'll go up to Yankee Stadium myself and stuff his father's turtleneck in his piehole, just so he'd shut up!
BTW, is it just me, or is Steinbrenner the Younger seeming to enjoy the limelight that comes with his new job. I think he's likely to follow in his father's footsteps, which means that the Yankees will be sucking in about five to eight years, thanks to Hank trading away the farm and signing the various Mel Hall and Danny Tartabull types on a whim.
The fact is, a trade should have already happened, as Boston, New York and New York should have pulled the trigger on a deal.
And spare me the talk about how Santana would require a huge contract extension that makes him unaffordable. All three of these teams would be lining up to get into a money fight for Santana if he hits the market next winter.
And the Yankees are the last one's to be preaching fiscal responsibility. Didn't they just spend $275 million on Alex Rodriguez? They can easily afford to extend Santana, who fills a need and has more upside to any Yankee prospect with the exception of Joba. They have $58.3 million coming off the books anyway, not counting the sunk costs of $6.95 million for paying Giambi and Pavano to go away.
Don't snicker Red Sox fans. You all aren't any better. You have about the same amount of money leaving the books, with Manny and Varitek's contracts coming off the books. And you have the farm system depth to fill the holes as well.
The Twins too also have to be reasonable. You aren't going to get a team to completely gut their system for Santana. It's unrealistic. You need to get teams to agree to a reasonable set of demands and flip as soon as the best deal comes up.
Financial reasons aside, here is what the Twins should reasonably expect to get for their ace:
1 High Quality Pitching Prospect
1 High Quality Positional Prospect
1 Above Average Pitching Prospect
1 Average Prospect Or Young Player
Here are the offers for each team:
Boston - Jon Lester (LHP), Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), Justin Masterson (RHP), Coco Crisp (CF)
I honestly don't know why the Twins haven't agreed to this deal, as it matches up with my qualifications perfectly. I think the Twins are hoping that Boston will toss in Clay Buchholz, which won't happen. Lester is an above average lefty who could be a number two starter. Lowrie could start for Minnesota now and be the best second baseman they've had since Chuck Knoblauch. Masterson has the potential to be a good pitcher in this league and Crisp helps give Minnesota a solid outfield for the first time in years.
New York (AL) - Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Jeff Marquez (RHP), Mitch Hillgross
This is insulting, actually. While Hughes is very good and I like Marquez to be a solid innings eater in the NATIONAL league, the rest is just ####. Cabrera is a average regular, not a star and I don't blame the Twins for shooing away fhe Yankees with this offer. If you want to give me something to think about, here is what I would ask for:
Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Ian Kennedy (RHP), Alan Horne (RHP)
And before Yankee Fans jump on me, consider this. Kennedy has been highly overrated since he was drafted and has been made to be a lot better than he is by the Yankee spin machine. He is, at best, a average pitcher with excellent command and is at best a Number Three pitcher, nothing more. He's not the second coming of Mike Mussia, who had better stuff than Kennedy at the beginning of his career. Horne has good stuff, but is injury prone and likely a bullpen guy in the end. Cabrera is an average regular, not a star.
New York (NL) - Carlos Gomez (CF), Delouis Guerra (RHP), Phil Humber (RHP), Kevin Mulvey (RHP)
A good offer, it's better than what the Yankees are offering and it sends Santana to the NL, where he wouldn't haunt the Twins. However, I would ask for Fernando Martinez, who has a chance to be a star, instead of Gomez. That would trump the Red Sox offer and if I had that deal on the table, I'd take it and run with it. Guerra has a chance to be a solid Number Two pitcher, Humber an inninsg eater, and Mulvey a solid 3. That's not a bad return.
Oh, and by the way, Omar Minaya is a fool for not agreeing to trade Gomez back in November for Matt Garza, who had a chance to be the best pitcher on the Mets' roster. The Twins should thank him, as they got Delmon Young in the deal, who is a lot better.
Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be inundated with more of the Santana claptrap, with more rantings for Hank Steinbrenner, more of us seeing Theo Epstein's Fraiser Crane impersonation with him saying "I'm listening", and more pleas from Omar Minaya for the Twins to accept his good, but not great offer.
So sorry folks, we'll be listening to three more months of the same #### till Spring Training ends.
A return to school and an increased workload at work due to sick leave has cut into my blogging time. Not cool.
Ah well, time for a collective group of thoughts about baseball.
Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus Traded For Each Other
Kinda a odd deal, considering that both are high priced deals with huge landmines attached to them (Health) but overall the deal does work to the favor of each team in one way or another.
WIth Rolen, the Blue Jays gain a Gold Glove defender at third base, which would help compensate for the lead glove of David Eckstein, at the cost of some offense. However, Eckstein is better than the shuffle at short the Jays had and there is the off chance that Rolen can prove himself to be semi-adequate with the bat. More than anything, however, the Jays need some type of return from Vernon Wells, who disappointed last season after signing for superstar money with the Jays.
In Glaus, the Cardinals get a big bat that is needed to help bolster the offense, which is, to be frank, pathetic outside of Pujols. More than anything, however, the Cardinals needed to diffuse the situation between Tony LaRussa and Rolen, which was made all but irreparable after LaRussa poured gas on that particular fire this off-season. The signing of Cesar Izturis does help improve the defense enough where the Cardinals can suffer through Glaus' hands of stone, and the move to natural grass and away from Toronto's turf should prove to be beneficial in the long run for Glaus.
All in all, it's a good gamble for both sides, but more importantly, it clears up some potential locker room disaster that would have exploded during the season had either player remained with their former teams.
Grade For Both Sides: B
Thoughts On The Kotsay Trade
I was going to rant about how the Braves should have just offered Andruw Jones arbitration, keeping him around for one more year, as he would have accepted, and keeping the offense together.
Instead, they pull this trade.
To be honest, I gotta give Billy Beane all the credit in the world on this one, as I think Kotsay is done. He's not the defender he once was and in terms of offense, he's not going to give you much in return. In all honesty, the Braves would have been better off just giving the job to Josh Anderson for the season and just gone with it from there. At least he's mostly paid for.
Oh wait. Oakland got two prospects, one of which, Joey Devine, the Braves' first round pick from two years ago, will likely help out Oakland in the bullpen this season. And they also got Jamie RIchmond, a right hander that could be a fifth starter. That's quite a haul for a broken player.
Anyhow, that's my take on that.
Oakland Grade - B
Atlanta Grade - D
Lost A Bet
To my friend, who's an Astros fan, on the Cowboy Game on Sunday.
So, expect the first (and only) Astros Report sometime this week.
He also adds another win to my Hall Of Fame Record, which is a pathetic 3-6
Here's the past three years of picks, starting from the inception of this blog, January of 2006...
2006 Picks For The Hall Of Fame
My Picks: Goose Gossage, Jim Rice, Lee Smtih, Bert Blyleven, Tommy John
Actual Inductees: Bruce Sutter
I was overly optomistic here. This was before I would learn the hard lessons of blogging. That and I never thought Sutter was a Hall of Famer. Obviously, the voters of the BBWAA thought differently.
2007 Picks For The Hall Of Fame
My Picks: Tony Gywnn, Cal Rikpen Jr.
Actual Inductees: Same
No brainers really.
2008 Picks For The Hall Of Fame
My Picks: Gossage, Rice
Actuall Inductees: Gossage
Damn it, I thought for sure Rice would get in. He came up just short.
Quick Thoughts On Next Year
We'll see two more Hall Of Famers Inducted, Rice (who will be riding high on his near induction and will likely make it in his final year on the ballot) and Ricky Henderson (a slam dunk first ballot induction.)
Bert Blyleven will come close, but just fall short of induction.
TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.
And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)
No matter.
Here's this year's edition.
Cooperstown Locks
Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in. He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters. There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.
Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy. Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter. His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978. He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year. I don’t agree with it, however.
Dark Horses
Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings. His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season. If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins. He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in. There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.
Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career. He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times. People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats. He also walked more than he struck out. However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use. Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal. I feel she should get in. The voters are divided so far.
Screwed
Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in. His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent. However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant. The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much. Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.
Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins. However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers. John was a great pitcher for some time. Why he’s not in is beyond me.
Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time. Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in. It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.
Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP. Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power. He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in. He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point. But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.
Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name. Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him. However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish. Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.
Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history. As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs. He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby. However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season. He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.
The Hall of Very Good
Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials. He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves. He also won two batting titles. Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players.
Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John. He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season. However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit. I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in. He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.
Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era. It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens. He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot. He could get in during his final year of eligibility.
Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP. A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started. Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career. Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later. To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go. Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers. But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.
Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal. He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.
Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213. However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.
No Chance In Hell
Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota. However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career. Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him. However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown. His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.
Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers. He shouldn’t be on here. Who screens these things?
Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly. This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.
David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot. He was good for a long time, but was never great. His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience. But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.
Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more.
Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.
Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part. He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”
Explaining The Rangers' Moves, Playing Russian Roulette For A Fifth Starter, And What To Do With Gerald Laird.
The Rangers Report – Offseason Edition
Rangers’ Moves Make Some Sense When You Look At It
Despite it being a rather quiet off-season for the Rangers, without the signings of some of the sexier names that were available on the free agent market, many of the moves that the Rangers did do are designed to allow for some of the youngsters in the minors some additional time to develop.
Many of the moves correlate to several of the Rangers’ rookies in the minors, designed to delay them for at least another half a season. Let’s check it out:
Alex Rodriguez Opts Out Of 10, Year, $252 Million Deal – A+. This was possible the best deal that the Rangers had happen to them this off-season, as the Rangers now have $21.3 Million to spend on THEIR OWN players. If this deal had been it, the Rangers may have had arguably the best off-seasons based on this alone. What this deal also does for the Rangers is to allow them to toss in a bit more coin on the draft, allowing them to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox for more lower round gems, as well as allowing them to attack the International Signing Period more vigously.
Sign RHP Joaquin Benoit To 2 Years, $6 million – A. To add another cherry on top, the Rangers also extended the ace of their bullpen to an extension, buying out his final year of arbitration and his first year of free agency. Benoit will now be competing for the role of closer next season. Suffice to say, this is good news, as Benoit could have gotten a lot more coin out on the open market.
Sign RHP Warner Madrigal To A Major League Contract – A. This makes the list simply because of the fact that the Rangers in essence get a prospect for free, without giving up anything. This was more thanks to the Angels’ screwing up than Texas monitoring the situation, but nonetheless, they get a relief prospect that throws hard and could be a potential closer. All in all, it’s a great way to add to the farm without giving anything other than a 40 Man spot. As for how he rates, think of a younger K-Rod.
Re-Signed UTIL Ramon Vasquez For 1 Year, $810,000 – D. Okay, Vasquez is a decent little utility man, but I think there were better options internally that could have been used, such as Tug Hulett, until German Duran is ready. Not loving this, really, but considering the salary and that he could be DFA’d with no trouble, ehh, whatever.
Trade CF Freddy Guzman To The Detroit Tigers For 1B Chris Shelton – B. Guzman wasn’t going to be with the Rangers for much longer anyway. While he is fast, his bat is rather anemic, making it hard to project him on the Rangers' as more of a fourth outfielder, pinch runner. As for Shelton, he's a valuable bench player that will see playing time as part of a platoon with Big Ben Broussard. More on how this helps in a minute...
Trade INF Tug Hulett to The Seattle Mariners For 1B Ben Broussard - A. Here's where the Shelton move comes in. For the price of a prospect that had no future here anyway, the Rangers get themselves a stopgap first baseman in the Bris Broulton combo that will now play at first. Broussard will take the majority of the at bats while Shleton spells him against lefties. This gives Texas roughly the equivalent of a major league first baseman. It also allows the Rangers to keep Chris Davis in the minors for another year, allowing him to benefit from coaching, at bats, and the opportunity to fine tune his skills until he gets the job next season.
Sign RF Milton Bradley For 1 year, $5 million - B. This one could blow up either way for the Rangers. Bradley could be a model citizen like Jurassic Carl was during his tenure with the Rangers or he could be a disaster and DFA'd soon after. However, Bradley is an elite bat that is now instantly the second best outfielder on the squad and will give the lineup a temporary boost.
Trade RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Danny Ray Herrera To The Cincinnati Reds For CF Josh Hamilton - A-. For all the outcry of the Rangers trading pitching, this deal does make a lot of sense. Texas has no outfielders. On my top 40 Rangers prospects, only two prospects in the top 20 were outfielders, both of whom were acquired this year and both of whom are not anywhere near ready. Volquez, while he has talent, I'm beginning to think that he wasn't going to make it, long term, as his control was just too inconsistent. The Rangers jumped at the chance of adding a impact centerfielder and Hamilton also gives the Rangers a legitimate power presence that was lost when Mark Teixeira was traded. Plus, when Borbon is ready, the Rangers could then slide Hamilton to right field, where he'd be a solid fit.
All in all, that's my take on the Rangers' off-season activity. This Rangers' team is vastly improved from what the Rangers ended the year with, so with some luck, the Rangers will keep things respectable, but won't contend for the most part. However, with the kids arriving soon, the future does look like it will swing for the better.
However, Volquez's trade does leave the rotation short an arm. What to do about that?
Playing The Free Agent Russian Roulette For Starters…
Despite the Rangers publicly saying that they will likely fill in the hole in the rotation created by the Josh Hamilton trade, I do expect the Rangers to make a play for one of the free agent starters looking for a bounce back year due to injury. This is a good way to either waste money (which usually happens) or to cash in on a suddenly viable asset if a pitcher were to suddenly return to form (see Paul Byrd’s last stint with the Royals). This is also meant to give two prospects, Eric Hurley and Matt Harrison, more time to develop in the minors to ensure that they won’t get torched immediately once they get promoted. For the most part, the Rangers are doing their homework on the options available. Mark Prior was recently shot down by the Rangers after deeming his medicals a mess along with his refusal to take a club option with his deal. Kyle Lohse is also not going to be an option, especially when you consider just how inconsistent he was in the American League when he was in Minnesota and that his agent, Scott Boras, is going to hold out until teams get desperate and start to jump all over themselves for a pitcher. Lohse is a option I would not take if I was Tom Hicks, nor is it a contract I would want, when you consider, again, Harrison and Hurley’s near readiness for the majors. That means that the Rangers will be looking for a pitcher willing to take a one-year deal, likely with a club option if they can get it. This would also rule out starters like Livan Hernandez and Josh Fogg. With that in mind, here’s who is available:
Jason Jennings (RHP) – Pass. Jennings is going to get the most run because of his Baylor roots and because of his ability to pitch at hitters parks, as well as his age. However, Jennings really is a guy without any real out pitch who can eat innings and keep you in games. Basically, he’s the embodiment of a Number Three starter, not an ace. With that said, he’s probably better off staying in the National League and recently, his agent has made noise that Jennings will be at full strength by opening day and isn’t going to be willing to take a one-year deal, with lots of incentives.
Bartolo Colon (RHP) - Already Ruled Out. The Rangers have already ruled out Colon, who despite looking strong in winter ball so far, but apparently, not only are his medical reports a nightmare, he also wants a long term deal.
Freddy Garcia (RHP) – Strongly Consider, But Won’t Come To Texas. Garcia would be an option I would consider strongly. He has success pitching in the American League, as well as in a pitchers park, and is still reasonably in his prime as far as a starting pitcher could be considered. However, he likely wouldn’t be an option for the Rangers for two reasons: first off, he’s considering holding himself out of the market until June, allowing him to sell himself to the highest bidder, and second, there’s been a lot of smoke signals that he will likely end up with the Mets.
Kris Benson (RHP) – Strongly Consider. My crush on the wife with the big ta-ta’s aside, Benson would be what the Rangers would consider as far as a guy hoping to be brought in as a 4th/5th starter. He’s able to keep you in games, can flash a little more at times and may be willing to take a one-year deal in an attempt to build up his value. I’d be fine with him as a one year option in the back of the rotation.
Roger Clemens (RHP) – Pass. In spite of the Mitchell Allegations, Clemens may be willing to return for one more year, just to try and prove the doubters wrong in an attempt to prove that he’s clean. Hicks may choose to consider Clemens due to his Texas roots and because Clemens was still able to dominate in games last season. However, the negatives outside of the Mitchell investigation outweigh any benefits from Clemens. First off, he will undoubtedly want to come back on a shortened season, which does Texas no good whatsoever, and he broke down late last year, as his body began to break down. Finally, in spite of some dominating performances, Clemens for the most part looked average against American League lineups. While the Rangers wouldn’t be looking for an ace, Clemens’ agents would demand a paycheck worthy of the Clemens of old, not the Clemens of the present.
Jon Lieber (RHP) - Pass. Lieber should stick to the NL.
Josh Towers (RHP) - Strongley Consider. Towers' stats, on the surface, do match up a lot to Carlos Silva, who the Mariners paid a lot for. He's a groundball pitcher that won't walk a lot, nor strike out a lot, but he'd be a reasonable option as a fourth or fifth starter, provided that the defense keeps runs off the board. He'd be a smart signing.
Jamey Wright (RHP) – Last Choice. There is always the return of the Jamey Wright experience. Wright was tolerable as a starter for the most part and was excellent in relief. He’s still got good stuff and may be amendable to taking another one year deal from the Rangers. But at this point, you have to wonder if maybe it wouldn’t be better just leaving Kameron Loe back in the rotation and hoping it goes well.
Jeff Weaver (RHP) – Oh Hell No! This is really only here as a comparison to where the market is at. Weaver will get consideration because he’s a live body.
Mike Maroth (RHP) – Are You #### Kidding Me? Yes, the Rangers have looked at him for a possible minor league deal with a spring training invite. No, I don’t think it’s a good idea. The last thing the Rangers need is for a washed up vet like Maroth to take up space in the minors.
Gerald Laird’s Situation Getting A Little Ugly
Gerald Laird’s situation is starting to get a little…annoying actually.
Two months into the off-season, Laird is still a Ranger and the situation has the potential to get ugly. Laird has already made several comments about how he feels that the Rangers have never given him the opportunity to play full time and that it seems he has always had to fight for what he’s been able to get in the majors.
Laird could start for about ten teams and backup for another five if he were shopped, but the Rangers aren't able to find a buyer yet. There was a mention of Laird being traded for Coco Crisp, which made sense at the time, but Boston killed the deal by changing course and demanding Eric Hurley and Luis Mendoza in the deal as well.
Texas could flip him to the Yankees, but New York would demand the Rangers accept a lesser prospect in return, or worse, demand more in return for one of them lesser prospects, which would be a good way to just #### me off.
The Mets were rumored to be interested, but rejected a trade of Laird and Benoit for Lastings Milledge. They then traded Milledge for Brian Schneider's carcass and Ryan Church.
The Pirates would be an option, seeing as how they want Paulino out of the starting role, but what would the Pirates send back in return? Would it be an Xavier Nady deal, with the Pirates possibly accepting Robinson Tejeda in return?
I'll work out a more detailed list next week, as the Rangers not only need to move Laird, but need to make some decisions on other 40 Man Roster spots soon.
Draft Nugget I Missed
The Rangers have apparently scored well in Baseball America’s Draft Scores, with them receiving the second best grade of all,
If there is one advantage to having a bunch of last place finishes, it’s being able to have an assortment of high impact talent.
That’ what the Devil Rays have been able to do after enduring years and years of the worst or second worst records in baseball. However, things have begun to look up for the former Devil Rays, who now stand to add to their impressive young core of players at the big league level. This farm depth has never been more prevalent until recently, when the Rays were able to sacrifice a young and upcoming bat in Delmon Young to acquire another major league caliber arm in Matt Garza, who now is ready to join what is the best Rays rotation ever, with Kazmir and Shields and several potential fourth and fifth starters that are coming in from the minors. While there have been some bumps in the road, mostly from Young and the talented, but troubled Elijah Dukes, the Rays have yet another promising set of young players ready to contribute, with third baseman Evan Longira and several potential pitching prospects in David Price, Jacob McGee, Wade Davis, Matt Walker, Mitch Talbot and others ready to prove their worth soon.
Rays Top 15
1 - Evan Longoria (3B)
DOB: 10/7/85
Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Long Beach State
2008 Club: Tampa Bay Rays (MLB)
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Regarded to be the best bat in the draft, the Devil Rays didn't plan on drafting another bat, but Longoria was just too good to pass up on. He had the best debut among all of the draftees and jumped directly from short season ball to Double A. Since then, Longoria has asserted himself to be one of the top players in the Rays' system and will challenge for a spot come Spring Training.
The Good: Longoria has great power to all fields and has a great, quick swing. He also has excellent plate discipline and chooses his pitch well. He's a great athlete that can play all over the infield and a stellar defender at third base.
The Bad: Longoria at times rushes his throws at times, resulting in errors. And that's about it.
Projection: Low. Longoria is nearly a finished product.
What He Can Be: An All-Star Third Baseman
2008 Course Of Action: Longoria is nearly ready and the Devil Rays are going to shift Akinori Iwamura to second, more than likely signaling that Longoria will be heading to Florida come the end of Spring Training.
2 – David Price (LHP)
DOB: 8/26/85
Drafted: 1st Overall, 2007, Vanderbilt
2008 Club: Montgomery Biscuits (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-6/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Price entered the season as the top talent in the draft and he did nothing to sway those expectations. After some intense negotiations, Price signed a major league deal and will be heading to Montgomery to start his career.
The Good: Price is a dominant pitcher who has great control and pounds the strike zone with three plus pitches, starting with a fastball that has been clocked in the mid to upper 90’s, a plus slider and a slow curve that is quite deceptive. He’s also got a changeup that could be a plus pitch if he continues to work on it.
The Bad: Price has had some high pitch counts in his college career. As a result, there’s a worry he could blow out his arm.
Projection: Fair. There's not much to really project on Price. He's going to rise fast.
What He Can Be: A Number One Starter
2008 Course Of Action: Price will likely get a Spring Training invite and could be in the Tampa rotation as soon as next year if he's lights out. There's not a whole lot there that's blocking him and would head a potentially scary Tampa rotation in 2009 with Kazmir, Shields, Price, and likely two more farm products.
3 – Reid Brignac (SS)
DOB: 1/16/86
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2004, Louisiana High School
2008 Club: Durham Bulls (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/170
Bats/Throws: L/R
The Skinny: After an impressive 2006 season, in which Brignac earned a California League MVP along with a strong late-season showing at Double-A. However, he did take a step back, hitting only .260 with 17 Home Runs and 81 RBI’s, along with 15 stolen bases. That’s a good season for anyone, but certainly not what you expected from Brignac after his first to years. Despite all that, he’s still on the fast track to be Tampa’s 2009 shortstop.
The Good: The best shortstop prospect in the minors, period, Brignac has an excellent approach to hitting, as he’s able to put the ball into play. He’s got solid power and a very good arm at shortstop, and is a hard worker and is diligent on improving his defense. He’s improved his walk totals since last year and has some speed to be a bit of a burner.
The Bad: Brignac remains a below-average defender up the middle, making some wonder if he’ll stay there long term, though he certainly can’t hurt in the short term. Against lefties, Brignac sacrifices power for contact.
Projection: Average. Brignac isn’t as ready as people thought he was after 2006, but he’s getting close. He should be a solid hitter in the heart of the order.
What He Can Be: A All Star offensive minded shortstop
2008 Course Of Action: Brignac is likely heading on to Triple A, where he’ll remain for the year until September, from which point on he’ll keep the starting job in Tampa.
4 – Wade Davis (RHP)
DOB: 9/7/85
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2004, Florida High School
2008 Club: Montgomery Biscuits (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-5/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: An underrated talent, Davis turned down a scholarship to Florida in exchange for a six figure bonus, and has risen quickly since signing, dominating every step of the way and could have been good enough to serve as a setup man last season. He was impressive in limited action at Vero Beach, posting a 1.71 ERA before a promotion to Montgomery.
The Good: One of the better power arms in the system, Davis has a power pitchers build and an arsenal to match it. He’s got a big heater that clocks in the 92-96 range that he can dial up to 98. He matches it with a power curve that is his out pitch and his changeup is looking like it could be a serviceable pitch.
The Bad: Davis' fastball is also rather flat, which means he could have the potential for long ball tendencies. Scouts also say he should have more faith in his changeup. He also has some issues against lefties.
Projection: Moderate. Davis is one of a number of intriguing young arms in the system, with only Price being better than anyone else in the system. However, it’s his command issues that have come back to haunt him in the past, but he has all of the tools to succeed.
What He Can Be: A Middle Of The Rotation Starter That Racks Up The K's.
2008 Course Of Action: Davis will likely begin the year in Double A, but there isn't much holding him back from possibly claiming a spot in the Tampa Rotation in the near future. The Devil Rays probably give him a shot to earn a jo in 2009 or so, but he could feasibly be seen in Tampa as early as September of next year.
5 – Desmond Jennings (CF)
DOB: 10/30/1986
Drafted: 10th round, 2006, Itawamba Community College
2008 Club: Vero Beach Devil Rays (High A)
Height/Weight: 6-2/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: Originally selected by the Indians in the 18th round of the 2005 draft out of an Alabama high school, Jennings had to decide between signing to play baseball and going to the University of Alabama on a football scholarship. However, Jennings decided against both options, instead electing to go to Itawamba Community College in Mississippi and delay his decision for a year. The following year, after showing off great skill as a wideout and on the Diamond, Jennings caught the Devil Rays attention, who drafted him in the 10th round, then give him a big enough bonus to lure him away from football. What happened next not even Tampa could foresee, as Jennings quickly rose through the minors in two years, hitting .277/.360/.390 with Princeton in Rookie League before jumping all the way up to the Sally League and hitting .315/.401/.465 until injury ended his season.
The Good: Gifted with loads of tools, Jennings has turned those tools into performance, a big reason why he rocketed through the minors. He’s got amazing speed and is regarded to be one of the fastest prospects in the minors, stealing 45 bases in 60 attempts while showing excellent range in center field. He’s got a strong enough arm to stay in center and he’s displayed leaps and bounds in developing his ability to draw walks and hit for contact. All in all, it’s a promising package.
The Bad: The power hasn’t arrived completely yet for Jennings, but it’s getting there. He’s still a bit raw and there’s a chance he could become pull friendly as he grows into his power potential, but overall, there’s not a lot to nitpick here.
Projection: High, which is kind of scary considering how well he’s done so far. If he develops into his power, there’s a chance to could lose some speed in the outfield as well as range, which would make him an excellent left fielder…and render Carl Crawford as potential trade bait.
What He Can Be: A All Star Outfielder
2008 Course Of Action: I expect that Jennings will slow down a bit once he goes against more advanced competition at Vero Beach. Then again, he could very well pass through High A without so much as a scratch, potentially having him finish the year in Montgomery.
6– Jeff Niemann (RHP)
DOB: 2/28/83
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004, Rice
2008 Club: Durham Bulls (Triple A)
Height/Weight: 6-9/260
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: One of the vaunted aces of that College World Series team, Niemann has had a lot of physical issues since being drafted by Tampa Bay and last season was really the only first full season he had without injury. Unfortunately for him, Niemann seems to have lost ground against some of the other Tampa Bay pitching prospects and isn’t as highly regarded as he once was.
The Good: A imposing presence on the mound, Niemann has outstanding stuff, throwing a 91-95 mph fastball touches 97 and has lots of movement thanks to his size. He compliments it with a power slider that also has good movement. He also throws a changeup, but it’s not nearly as good as his heater or slider. He also has very good control. This would be an excellent arsenal for a starter…
The Bad: …if he could only stay #### healthy! Niemann has been hampered by groin and shoulder problems since he was drafted and his health was a big reason why many teams really weren’t interested in drafting him.
Projection: Low. Niemann isn’t quite what you expected after he missed time due to injuries last year and he can’t stay healthy for a full season. He’d be an excellent bullpen arm, maybe even an excellent reliever with his arsenal.
What He Can Be: A power reliever
2008 Course Of Action: The Rays will bring in Niemann to see if he can break into the big league rotation. If more of the youngsters, like McGee, Talbot or Walker can break in, plus if he continues to get hurt, then look for the change to finally come at some point this season, though he would have exceptional value in a trade.
7 – Jacob McGee (LHP)
DOB: 8/6/86
Drafted: 5th round, 2004, Nevada High School
2008 Club: Montgomery Biscuits (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
The Skinny: Another young, project arm, McGee has risen steadily through the system quicker than Tampa ever thought he would.
The Good: The fast-rising lefthander had and outstanding full-season debut, averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings with a power arsenal. His low-90s fastball can get up to 94-96 at times, and his big, looping curveball freezes batters in their tracks. His changeup is at least average. Athletic and fields his position well.
The Bad: McGee has some control issues, mostly due to overthrowing his fastball. He has a tendency to elevate his pitches, and needs to work inside more frequently.
Projection: High. While the Devil Rays have gotten out of the California League, their pitchers at High-A will still have a challenge in keeping balls in the park at Vero Beach. McGee will front the rotation there in 2007.
What He Can Be: A Taller Scott Kazmir
2008 Course Of Action:: McGee will remain at Montgomery for most of the year, though if he continues, he may get a big league look at the end of the year after a five game stint in Durham.
8 – Jeremy Hellickson (RHP)
DOB: 4/8/87
Drafted: 4th round, 2005, Iowa High School
2008 Club: Montgomery Biscuits (Double A)
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
The Skinny: A raw product when he originally was drafted, Hellickson has developed into yet another promising Rays pitching arm. He kept up his progress shown in last year’s New York Penn League by pitching exceptionally well for Vero Beach.
The Good: Hellickson has grown quite a bit from the raw arm that he was when he was first drafted. He's&nbs
