I've had about enough of the Johan Santana rumor mill.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that he'll be there opening day with the Twins and will remain with them till at least the trade deadline.
Why?
Because it's becoming increasinly obvious that there is a lot of chatter from all sides, but no action. Usually, the more rumors that are passed around about a player, the more unlikely it's going to happen. It's like talking the whole night how you're going to go after the prettiest girl in the room, but at the end of the night, you're going back home to nothing but a hard drive full of porn and a full box of kleenex.
Sorry for the visual analogy, but that's what it's become in the Santana Sweepstakes, which have become nothing more than just a lot of shock jock fodder and a whole lot of New York centric media opinions (oh god, the New York media opionions! Newsday has become unreadable!) I swear to god, if I hear one more Hank Steinbrenner quote, I'll go up to Yankee Stadium myself and stuff his father's turtleneck in his piehole, just so he'd shut up!
BTW, is it just me, or is Steinbrenner the Younger seeming to enjoy the limelight that comes with his new job. I think he's likely to follow in his father's footsteps, which means that the Yankees will be sucking in about five to eight years, thanks to Hank trading away the farm and signing the various Mel Hall and Danny Tartabull types on a whim.
The fact is, a trade should have already happened, as Boston, New York and New York should have pulled the trigger on a deal.
And spare me the talk about how Santana would require a huge contract extension that makes him unaffordable. All three of these teams would be lining up to get into a money fight for Santana if he hits the market next winter.
And the Yankees are the last one's to be preaching fiscal responsibility. Didn't they just spend $275 million on Alex Rodriguez? They can easily afford to extend Santana, who fills a need and has more upside to any Yankee prospect with the exception of Joba. They have $58.3 million coming off the books anyway, not counting the sunk costs of $6.95 million for paying Giambi and Pavano to go away.
Don't snicker Red Sox fans. You all aren't any better. You have about the same amount of money leaving the books, with Manny and Varitek's contracts coming off the books. And you have the farm system depth to fill the holes as well.
The Twins too also have to be reasonable. You aren't going to get a team to completely gut their system for Santana. It's unrealistic. You need to get teams to agree to a reasonable set of demands and flip as soon as the best deal comes up.
Financial reasons aside, here is what the Twins should reasonably expect to get for their ace:
1 High Quality Pitching Prospect
1 High Quality Positional Prospect
1 Above Average Pitching Prospect
1 Average Prospect Or Young Player
Here are the offers for each team:
Boston - Jon Lester (LHP), Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), Justin Masterson (RHP), Coco Crisp (CF)
I honestly don't know why the Twins haven't agreed to this deal, as it matches up with my qualifications perfectly. I think the Twins are hoping that Boston will toss in Clay Buchholz, which won't happen. Lester is an above average lefty who could be a number two starter. Lowrie could start for Minnesota now and be the best second baseman they've had since Chuck Knoblauch. Masterson has the potential to be a good pitcher in this league and Crisp helps give Minnesota a solid outfield for the first time in years.
New York (AL) - Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Jeff Marquez (RHP), Mitch Hillgross
This is insulting, actually. While Hughes is very good and I like Marquez to be a solid innings eater in the NATIONAL league, the rest is just ####. Cabrera is a average regular, not a star and I don't blame the Twins for shooing away fhe Yankees with this offer. If you want to give me something to think about, here is what I would ask for:
Phil Hughes (RHP), Melky Cabrera (CF), Ian Kennedy (RHP), Alan Horne (RHP)
And before Yankee Fans jump on me, consider this. Kennedy has been highly overrated since he was drafted and has been made to be a lot better than he is by the Yankee spin machine. He is, at best, a average pitcher with excellent command and is at best a Number Three pitcher, nothing more. He's not the second coming of Mike Mussia, who had better stuff than Kennedy at the beginning of his career. Horne has good stuff, but is injury prone and likely a bullpen guy in the end. Cabrera is an average regular, not a star.
New York (NL) - Carlos Gomez (CF), Delouis Guerra (RHP), Phil Humber (RHP), Kevin Mulvey (RHP)
A good offer, it's better than what the Yankees are offering and it sends Santana to the NL, where he wouldn't haunt the Twins. However, I would ask for Fernando Martinez, who has a chance to be a star, instead of Gomez. That would trump the Red Sox offer and if I had that deal on the table, I'd take it and run with it. Guerra has a chance to be a solid Number Two pitcher, Humber an inninsg eater, and Mulvey a solid 3. That's not a bad return.
Oh, and by the way, Omar Minaya is a fool for not agreeing to trade Gomez back in November for Matt Garza, who had a chance to be the best pitcher on the Mets' roster. The Twins should thank him, as they got Delmon Young in the deal, who is a lot better.
Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be inundated with more of the Santana claptrap, with more rantings for Hank Steinbrenner, more of us seeing Theo Epstein's Fraiser Crane impersonation with him saying "I'm listening", and more pleas from Omar Minaya for the Twins to accept his good, but not great offer.
So sorry folks, we'll be listening to three more months of the same #### till Spring Training ends.
There have been a few offers the Red Sox put on the table that could have made sense for the twins. Its obvious he will not return to Minnesota next year, they offered him a 4 year extension and he shut that down faster than he does Johnny Pheralta (at one point was 0-21 with 19 K's vs. Johan.) The twins wanted Ellsbury but couldn't convince Theo to let him go. Now the Twins must put up with Hank just to keep a respectable deal from Boston on the table. If the yankess truly are done, what incentive would Theo have? Its not as if they are hurting for another Cy young pitcher, and if he goes to the Mets and is extended, the Yanks still lose.
I completely agree. I've been preaching the same thing for months. The fact that the Twins haven't pounced on the Sox offer is mind-boggling. With the Yanks offering ####, there is no reason for Theo to up the ante. He's offered Ellsbury, but without Lester.
If the Twins don't pounce on the Red Sox deal, I'm all about the Mets deal and pushing for Martinez to be added in. The Twins have a tendency to pull off trades that look rather lopsided (think AJ Pierzynski and Chuck Knoblauch) at first, but prove to be great moves later on.
So basically the Yanks have to give a #2 and #3 for a #1 starter? What is it, a one-game playoff?
Why would the Twins make that deal w/ the Sox? They don't wanna really spend money, so taking on Coco would defeat the purpose. They would much rather Ellsbury, but if I were the sox, I'd tell em to shove it. Keep Lester and Buchholz, let them pitch behind Beckett and Dice.
Even if I'm the Yanks, I don't make that deal. I'd let the younger guys mature, and if they don't develop quickly, you can still sign Santana in the offseason.
By the way.....I agree with you on the Hank Steinbrenner quotes. I feel like setting my newspaper on fire everytime I read a Hank quote. Shut up, you are hurting the bargaining position and making the Yanks look indecisive. I'm glad they finally took over for Daddy, but geez, Could Hal make Hank a SILENT partner?
The Yankees aren't giving up a #2 and a #3 they're giving up some kids who haven't really proven anything yet. Joba, Kennedy and Hughes remind me a lot of The Big Three that the Mets had in the early '90s. Wilson, Pullsipher and Isringhausen. Only one of them is still pitching and he had to become a closer. Right now they're just prospects with high-upsides, Johan Santana IS the best pitcher in all of baseball and he's still in his prime, period. Plus he pretty much owns both the Sox and the Yanks lifetime, so he helps either side.
Bringing in Coco won't hurt the Twins, not at his salary, given they were paying Hunter $13 million and Santana was making the same they can afford to bring him in.
Plus...just my opinion...I don't think the Yanks or Sox or Mets or anyone will get the chance to bid on Santana on the free market. He gets traded and extended long before then...
KKfromBK: At the moment, you have a rotation, long term, that projects with Beckett, Buchholz, Dice-K and some combination of Lester, Masterson, Bowden and Hagadone. I think the Red Sox have some pitching talent to spare in a trade, especially for Santana.
Second, tKatt brings up a good point. The Twins will take SOME salary, but not a whole boatload of it. Crisp's three year deal is reasonable and is pretty much Minnesota's style.
Personally, I'm beginning to wonder if all the Santana squabbling between the Red Sox and Yankees is just an attempt to make sure the other doesn't get him, screwing over the Twins in the long run.
However, I agree that Santana won't remain a Twin beyond the deadline.
Mori; His worth to a major league team is not equal to giving away a secure future. The Yankee offer is more in line to his worth to the Yankees. Conversely the offer from Boston is too much. Boston being the better team....they offer more. Boston fans dislike both offers. They already may have the best rotation in the AL. Sure adding Santana makes them better today but Elsburys upside is huge. 10 years from now, there is every expectation hat he will have 1000 stolen bases and hit 300 or so every year. Santana in 10 years is where???????
What does that even mean? Santana is the best pitcher in the game, period. Hands down, there is no one who can touch him. How does any team not go out of their way to add him to their rotation?
Ellsbury is solid, sure, for the tiny sample-size that we have of his major league experience, he's great. Remember when Shane Spencer came up with the Yankees and hit like 10 homers in the final month of the season and everyone assumed he was destined for stardom?!
I'm amused that people say Joba, Kennedy, Hughes, Ellsbury and Buchholz are all untouchable...they are all just prospects. Not a one of them has proven anything over the long haul of a season and at their best, not a one of them figures to be as worthwhile as Johan Santana.
Santana is in his prime and set to keep dominating the league for another six years, at bare minimum. He's avoided the injury bug his entire career and he's had most of his success with no offense behind him. Put him in Boston or either New York club and he's the same incredible pitcher, but with less pressure to only give up one run a game...scary.
The Mets are willing to send five of their top seven prospects to the Twins because they realize what they're getting, the best pitcher in baseball. Thank God somebody gets it.
I'm mad that he doesn't want to play for the Mariners, who may have actually had a shot at getting him. So much like Hiroki Kuroda, I hope Santana's arm falls off, or he gets traded to the Mets.
I'm getting tired of the Bedard to the M's talk. If that's going to happen, I'd like to see it happen before Spring Training.
I think we're seeing a transitional period in pitching and personnel. The old guard such as Maddux, Glavine, Martinez, Schilling, Clemens, Petite, Johnson will all retire soon. They are a dying breed, 300 wins, durable. Yes Santana is the best pitcher in the game but he's already shown signs of decline. IMO just not worth giving up the farm for. Teams are leaning towards a younger staff or foreign imports as the cost of premium pitching spirals. GMs like Cashman are leaning towards a more cost conscious model in running their clubs. What the As and Marlins did opened many people's eyes and they will likely try and trade a star pitcher then let them see out free agency. If Santana sees out free agency, the trend could be to trading a pitcher with 2 years left.
If you look at the last few years, when was the last time a truly great pitcher came on the market? IMO that was Pedro Martinez. I believe teams are worried when pitchers like Zito, Silva, Meche get silly money for their comparatively weak talent and will place more emphasis on developing their own pitching. Smaller market teams may well follow the Marlins and As way in trading established talents for a great return of prospects. The next test will be the D Backs, Rays, Brewers who have several marquee young talent. Will they sign them to extensions, let them see out their arbritation years or trade them for a return of super prospects just before they become free agents?
You are all wrong. Santana isn't going anywhere. B Smith tossed his name out there to bring attention to the Twins and see if he could plunder some Front Office like we poled the Giants for AJ. From what I am hearing, no team is willing to offer him a 5+ year extension, so the twins may be able to sign him for 5 @ 95 million before Spring Training starts. With the Morneau/ Cuddyer signing, he should see that the organization is committed to winning and hopefully stick around to be a part of that. I don't blame the twins for not pulling the trigger on any of the trades out there, they were horse$__t. With Lircat coming back, we could have the best 1-2 punch in baseball and the bats to back them up. Can I get a Holler from the Twins fans in this Frozen state?
The mets have no management. Omar and Willie did nothing during the collapse.
As a Met fan I hope their lack of urgency does not screw up another season
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
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