It’s that time again…

TIme when I try to forecast who will get into the Hall of Fame.

And every year, I've been wrong except for last year, when no brainers Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken got in (I whiffed on Gossage twice already.)

No matter.

Here's this year's edition.

Cooperstown Locks

Rich "Goose" Gossage – This is the year Goose gets in.  He got close last season, even with Ripkin and Gwynn on the ballot and will almost certainly make the hall of fame, barring any sort of mental lapse amongst the voters.  There is no reason why it should have taken this long, but as I have said, I believe that Gossage’s years as a setup man may have hurt his case for the Hall of Fame.

Jim Rice – There’s been a lot of debate recently as to whether or not Rice truly is Hall of Fame worthy.  Rice does have some good career averages, and he’s got 382 HR’s, though that isn’t good enough for a man with the reputation for a power hitter.  His numbers were partially inflated by Fenway, but he did net a MVP award in 1978.  He does get bonus points for being a slugger in a Pitcher’s Era, however and overall, with his support in Boston and much of the Eastern Seaboard, I say he gets in this year.  I don’t agree with it, however.

Dark Horses

Bert Blyleven – A great pitcher, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts (3701), nine all time in shutouts, and 13th all time in innings.  His career record is great (287-250) his ERA is solid (3.31) and has a career ERA of 2.47 in the post season.   If he had better run support, he’d easily have over 300 wins.  He should have been in a long time ago, but for some reason, voters are reluctant to admit him in, yet they are upset over why a lesser pitcher, Jack Morris, whom Blyleven laps in every category and is even better in the post-season than Morris, is not in.  There’s been a rise of support for Blyleven.  Unfortunately, it won’t be enough.

Tim Raines – Raines merits induction, as he was one of the best Leadoff Men in baseball for much of his career.  He hit .294 lifetime, tallied 2605 hits, has a career on base percentage of .385, and scored 1571 times.  People crack on his stolen bases, saying that he was afraid to drop his stolen base percentage when in reality, Raines stole bases only when necessary, not just to pad stats.  He also walked more than he struck out.  However, Raines won’t get his due, as people will again feel he wasn’t as good as Henderson, his rival as far as leadoff men are concerned, plus his cocaine use.  Raines may have lasted even longer in baseball if he hadn’t played much of his career on the hard Astroturf in Montreal.  I feel she should get in.  The voters are divided so far.

Screwed

Lee Smith – A good closer, is number two on the All-Time Saves List (478), and truckload of innings logged in.  His career ERA is good (3.03) and he was usually consistent.  However, what kills Smith is that most people see him as a compiler and is regarded by many to be consistent, but not dominant.  The fact that he only played on two playoff teams and was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in the postseason doesn’t help him much.  Still, accumulating 478 saves is amazing (just ask Trevor Hoffman), but unfortunately, it’s looking more and more like Smith will be at the mercy of the Veteran’s committee and won’t be elected by the BBWAA.

Tommy John – Almost as good as Blyleven, in terms of Wins (288-231) and ERA (3.34), John would have been a lock if he had just won 300 wins.  However, people don’t realize that had it not been for the procedure that now bears his name, he wouldn’t even be close to his numbers.  John was a great pitcher for some time.  Why he’s not in is beyond me.

Dave Concepcion – The last member of the Big Red Machine not in the Hall (not counting Pete Rose), Concepcion was probably one of the best shortstops of his time.  Many remember him for his glove work, but his career averages (.267/.322/.357) and his 2326 hits aren’t enough to get him in.  It’s possible that many could point to Ozzie Smith as a possible induction into the Hall of Fame from Concepcion, but unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll get in, leaving him as a option for the veteran’s committee.

Andre Dawson – Blessed with a long, steady career that lasted 21 seasons, Dawson tallied 438 homers, 2774 hits, 314 steals, and was the 1987 NL MVP.  Dawson was a great defender at both right and centerfield and hit with good power.  He didn’t walk much, which is why he’s got a #### OBP, but he does have some favorable stats to some Hall of Famers already in.  He was also one of the classiest men to play the game, another reason why I like him, though that’s beside the point.  But unfortunately, he's seen as a complier, and most likely won't be allowed in anytime soon, which sucks for him.

Alan Trammell – Trammell totaled 2,365 hits, 185 homers, 412 doubles, 236 steals and a World Series MVP to his name.  Those are solid stats and should be Hall of Fame worthy when you consider that Trammell played in an era when shortstops were expected to defend, not him.  However, shortly after Trammell retired, the rise of offensive shortstops, such as Ripken, Jeter, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and others have made his numbers look quite pedestrian when compared to how they will finish.  Because of that, Trammell isn’t getting in, even though he probably should.

Harold Baines – Seemingly ageless, as he played for over 20 seasons, Baines is probably regarded as one of the best hitters in White Sox history.  As a whole, he was a very good hitter for a very long time, with a career .289 Batting Average and totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs.  He played on six postseason teams but never won a ring. Not at all shabby.  However, Baines was a terrible defender and never had a monster season.  He also never really took walks either, meaning he’s out.

The Hall of Very Good

Dave Parker – The Cobra has a lot of good credentials.  He’s got 2712 hits, led the league three times in scoring, is in the top 30 of all time in doubles and was the 1978 NL MVP, three Gold Gloves.  He also won two batting titles.   Those are good numbers, but not great ones, and Parker’s cocaine use has turned off several of the more self righteous voters, which means Parker is likely going in that class of Very Good, but not Hall Worthy players. 

Jack Morris – Morris is a somewhat lesser version of Tommy John.  He has pitched well in the postseason, and averaged at least 14 wins per season.  However, Morris has an ERA of 3.90 and going through some of his career numbers, many of his wins are the result of good run support and a strong defensive unit.  I don’t think he should be allowed in, even though many of the old school media are pushing hard for him to go in.  He’d easily be the worst Hall of Fame pitcher ever elected.

Mark McGwire – 500 Home Runs used to guarantee you admission into the hall of fame, but times have changed and McGwire has been made the posterboy of the era.  It’s not fair, but unfortunately, it happens.  He won’t get in, but will likely hang around the ballot.  He could get in during his final year of eligibility. 

Don Mattingly – One of the most popular Yankees in history, a nine-time Gold Glover, a six time All-Star, and the 1985 MVP.  A good man and a great leader, who stuck with the Yankees through the lean years and retired just before all the fun started.  Early in his career, Mattingly seemed like a lock, but lingering back problems would eventually claim his career.  Again, as with another 80’s era first baseman, Will Clark, Mattingly had good career averages (.307-.358-.471), but his overall numbers (222 HR’s, 2153 Hits) aren’t enough to get him in, though he’ll be immortalized in Legends Park sooner or later.  To put it bluntly, Yankee fans, let it go.  Unfortunately, he’ll hang around for the next few years, making this a perennial comment.

Dale Murphy – Murphy has two MVP awards and 398 homers.  But other than that, he's not Hall Worthy.

Chuck Finley – Finely made quite a few All-Star teams based on raw win totals alone, but his control was average and his ERA doesn’t fairly show that he could be god-awful a great deal.  He did have a reputation as an innings eater, but other than that, what else can you say except that he’s a slightly above average pitcher who likely would be vastly overpaid if he played today and isn’t worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.

Robb Nen – A former Ranger Draft Pick, Nen was traded to Florida for Cris Carpenter (the bad one) and became one of the better closers in baseball, finishing his career with 314 saves, a 45-42 record, a career 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.213.  However, that’s not hall worthy, meaning Nen is out.

No Chance In Hell

Chuck Knoblauch – Knoblauch certainly looked like a Hall of Fame caliber player back when he was in Minnesota.  However, a neurosis that affected his glovework and eventually his hitting ended his career.  Many felt that the pressure of playing in New York finally got to him.  However, the fact is that what’s done is done and in the end, Knoblauch doesn’t deserve to be bronzed in Cooperstown.  His mention in the Mitchell Report will also mean he falls off the ballot.

Todd Stottlemyre–An okay pitcher for the most part, I remember him mostly from his brief time with the Texas Rangers.  He shouldn’t be on here.  Who screens these things?

Rod Beck –Sorry, I know Beck is very much beloved by many fans, but realistically, he had a 7 year run in which he was good, after which he flamed out spectacularly.  This may be his first and only time you’ll see him on the ballot.

David Justice – Justice is going to be one and done on the ballot.  He was good for a long time, but was never great.  His numbers (1571 Hits, 305 HR, .279 Career BA) just aren’t special enough, though he’ll likely get credit for all of his playoff experience.  But, to be quite honest, he just doesn’t belong on the ballot.

Travis Fryman – Fryman played for a long time, both in Detroit and in Cleveland, and was an All-Star five times, but for the most part he was just a solid contributor and nothing more. 

Brady Anderson – Another solid contributor, nothing more, Anderson shouldn’t be on the ballot.

Shawon Dunston – Dunston had a decent start to his career, but injuries and ineffectiveness turned him into a very good bench player for the most part.  He was also named as one of “Barry’s Guys” in the book Love Me, Hate Me, who defended Eric Davis, who was being berated by Bonds and the time, only to shut him up by grabbing Davis’ World Series ring and asking him “Have one of these?”

Jose Rijo – Okay, but never great.  Out.