Philadelphia Phillies – Prospect Report

The Phillies actually have a few homegrown products on their team, with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Cole Hammels, Brett Myers, and of course, Ryan Howard, all starting on the big league club and all stars in their own right.  Unfortuantely, the Phillies’ farm system has kind of shut down in recent years thanks to a combination of bad drafts, trades, and a series of busts that have cost the organization depth.  Pat Gillick has, to a certain extent, tried to remedy the losses and help revitalize the system while trading away some lesser players for parts that can win now, but the fact is that the Phillies won’t be able to count of the kids to come in as the calvary if things start to go wrong.

 Phillies Top 15

1 – Carlos Carrasco (RHP)

• DOB: 3/21/87  
• Signed:  2003, Venezuela  
• 2008 Club: Reading Phillies (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/180
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: A prized free agent signed out of Venezuela in 2003, Carrasco had everything came together in 2006 and has continued to do well so far.  Though the Phillies may have been tempted to promote Carrasco, .  Moved up to High-A Clearwater to begin the 2007 campaign, Carrasco has continued to succeed. 
• The Good: Carrasco has a solid repertoire with a sinking fastball that sits in the mid 90’s and has some solid movement through the zone, which he commands masterfully.  He’s got a pair of excellent secondary pitches as well, with a great changeup that’s a swing and a miss pitch and a solid curveball. 
• The Bad: Carrasco's control of his secondary pitches comes and goes.  But the bigger problem is that despite the sinker, Carrasco a flyball pitcher, which could be a concern at Citizens Bank Park.
• Projection:  Average.  Carrasco needs to keep improving his control and improving his curve, but he should be commended for having a pair of plus pitches already that can be used to dominate big league hitters.
• What He Can Be: A No. 2 starter.
• 2008 Course Of Action: The club should continue to take it slow with Carrasco, but if Carrasco keeps up his Sherman-esque march through the minors, he may force the Phillies to give him a shot mid-season.

2 – Joe Savery (LHP) DOB:  11/04/85

• Drafted:  1st Round, 2007, Rice
•  2008 Club:  Lakewood BlueClaws (Low A) 
• Height/Weight: 6-3/215 
• Bats/Throws: L/L 
• The Skinny:  Savery looked like a future top 10 selection after a dominant freshman season, recording a 2.43 ERA and 129/37 K/BB ratio in 118 2/3 innings for the Owls while winning the National Freshman of the Year Award.  However, in 2006, Savery had some issues with his labrum and surgery was required later that summer.   He made a quick recovery from the surgery, but the Owls decided to be cautious and limit his pitch counts early in the season, all the while doubling as the Owl’s regular first  baseman.  Savery signed too late to make a start, but should begin the season next year with the Phillies’ Low A Affiliate. 
• The Good:  Savery’s stuff is actually quite good, as he’s able to work his fastball well in all parts of the zone.  His breaking pitches, a solid curveball and a solid changeup, regarded to be one of the best in the draft, are both sharp and break well in the zone.  His control is excellent and his mechanics are solid.  He’s also very aggressive on the mound and is a solid defender, partly because of his defensive work at first base.  
• The Bad:  Savery’s fastball is rather flat, meaning that he’ll be a bit homer prone in the majors.  Also, as with most Rice talent, Savery’s healthy is somewhat questionable. 
• Projection:  Low.  Savery has been money since he came back from his injury and was the ace of the Rice staff.  There is some concern about how his health will be long term, but I don’t think it’ll be an issue, as the Rice staff had been very good in making sure he wasn’t rushed back.
• What He Can Be:  A middle of the rotation starter
• 2008 Course Of Action: Provided that he’s healthy and that his stuff is all the way back, Savery should be a very good pickup by the Phils, who need pitching depth in their system, as right now they’re surviving with few home grown products and a lot of imports from other organizations, though I don’t know how you would count Adam Eaton. 

 3 – Adrian Cardenas (SS)  

• DOB: 10/10/87  
• Drafted:  1st Round (S), 2006, Florida High School  
• 2008 Club:  Clearwater Threashers (High A)  
• Height/Weight: 6-0/185  
• Bats/Throws: L/R  
• The Skinny: The Phillies used their sandwich pick in 2006 on Baseball America's High School Player of the Year, seeing him as a rare, projectable athlete that would move through the system quickly.  Whatever the Phillies’ expectations for Cardenas were blown out of the water after he did well in Rookie League Ball and in Low A Ball, making Cardenas one of the fastest risers in the system.
• The Good: An excellent hitter with a great bat speed and excellent plate discipline, Cardenas draws a lot of comparisons to Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.  Cardenas has good power potential within him, many thinking that he’ll be a 20 homer a year guy in the majors.  He’s also got good speed on the bases and excellent base stealing instincts.  The Phils love his attitude and work ethic.
• The Bad: Many feel that Cardenas won’t stick at shortstop and will wind up moving to either third base or, most likely, second base, making the Utley comparisons even more appropriate.
• Projection: High.  Cardenas has done nothing but hit since he came in the organization and is rising quicker than expected.  However, the bat will play anywhere and he should be able to find a home somewhere in the Phillies’ plans for the future.  If not, they have a great trade chip.
• What He Can Be: A second baseman that can hit in the 3 hole.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  The Phillies will likely allow Cardenas to head over to High A to begin the season, but Cardenas’ future with the Phillies is uncertain as he’s blocked at both infield positions and would have to likely move over to third if he’s going to remain in the organization. We’ll see where he finishes at the end of the year.

4 – Kyle Drabek (RHP) 

• DOB: 12/8/87
• Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Texas High School
• 2008 Club:  Gulf Coast Phillies (Rookie)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/185
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  The son of former Pirate Ace Doug Drabek, Kyle was regarded to be the top prep righthander in the 2006 Draft , but he fell due to makeup concerns, resulting from a DUI and possible substance abuse.  He ended up going 18th overall to the Phillies, but his performance was inconsistent until it was finally discovered that Drabek had some elbow issues, which culminated in him undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
• The Good: Drabek, who also could have been a high pick as a shortstop, has quality stuff. He throws 94-97 mph, and shows a solid curveball and a hard slider.  If that wasn't enough, his changeup also has the potential to be a plus offering.
• The Bad: Aside from the makeup concerns, there is some concern if Drabek was genuinely injured all this time or if he just sucked.  We’ll see.
• Projection:  Very high.  Drabek has a world of potential ahead of him, but because of his attitude, he's also a very volatile commodity.  As a result, he really falls onto both sides of the prospect spectrum in that he’s either going to be a spectacular success or a spectacular failure. 
• What He Can Be:  A major league ace, a la Carlos Zambrano.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  It’s hard to guess exactly where Drabek is or how well he’s doing because of the TJ, but he’ll likely begin back with the Gulf Coast Phillies to begin his rehab.

5 – Travis D'Arnaud (C)

•  DOB: 2/10/89
• Drafted: 1st Round (S), 2007, California High School
•  2008 Club:  Williamsport Crosscutters (Short Season)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/185
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  Many teams had D’Arnaud as their backup option in the first round, so the Phillies may have gotten a steal by taking him in the sandwich round.  D'Arnaud was supposed to join his older brother at Pepperdine this past year, but the Phillies quickly bought him out and assigned him to the Gulf Coast League, where he was okay at best. 
• The Good: D'Arnaud was considered one of the top prep catchers in the draft thanks to his promise with the bat and his excellent defensive abilities.  He looks good behind the plate, has a strong arm and moves well.  He also has some raw power potential that could make him a 15-20 Home Run threat in the future. 
• The Bad: The bat is inconsistent at this point and there have been some criticism over his swing.  He also has slow. 
• Projection:  High.  D’Arnaud can be a sold starting catcher given time.  The bat is usually the last thing to develop on catchers, but the good news is that his defense is already top notch and won’t need much work.   
• What He Can Be:  A average major league regular
• 2008 Course Of Action:  D’Arnaud will likely be heading to Williamsport when the Short Season Leagues begin, after some work in extended on his hitting skills.    

6 – Jason Donald (SS)

• DOB: 9/04/84
• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2006, University of Arizona
• 2008 Club:  Reading Phillies (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 5-11/193
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  A 3rd rounder out of the University of Arizona, Donald was regarded to be an underachiever in college, but has begun to blossom into a prospect, much to the surprise and delight of the Phillies.   .
• The Good:  A sound player, Donald has no real weaknesses in his offense, as he can hit for average with gap power and draw a walk.  He’s a solid, steady defender, though he does his business with little pomp and circumstance. 
• The Bad: Really, Donald is just what he is, a workman type of player that can start for you, but you won’t ever expect superstardom out of.
• Projection:  Low.  Donald is rising quickly and when all of his gifts are taken into account, he’s a solid prospect.  He’s also blocked, thanks to the presence of both Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley, unless he moves.
• What He Can Be:  An average starting shortstop
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Donald won’t beat out any of the star-studded infield of Utley and Rollins, unless he moves to third.  However, he’s quite attractive to an organization in need of a starting shortstop in the future and will likely be mentioned in some potential trades this off-season, possibly for pitching.

7 – Josh Outman (LHP)

• DOB: 9/14/84
• Drafted: 10th Round, 2005, Central Missouri State
• 2008 Club:  Reading Phillies (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-1/180
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  The Phillies do have some solid lefties remaining on the farm aside from Savery and Outman and Happ look to be the best of them.  Outman has the highest upside of the pair and could be good in time, though his disappointing time up in Reading didn’t do much to help his cause.
• The Good: Outman has excellent velocity for a lefty.  He sits in the low 90’s and can touch 94-95 on occasion.  He’s got a solid slider and his changeup has shown signs it can be a usable pitch.
• The Bad: Outman's command and control come and go, often times forcing him to use the fastball, limiting himself to being a one trick pony.  His two secondary pitches still need some work, especially the changeup.
• Projection: Average.  Southpaw’s with Outman’s velocity aren’t common, but he still needs to work on a lot of things before he can become a reasonable option for the Phillies to use. 
• What He Can Be: A Middle Of The Rotation Guy
• 2008 Course Of Action: Outman is likely going back to Reading, where the Phillies are hoping he’ll take a major step forward. 

8 – D'Arby Myers (CF)

• DOB: 12/9/88
• Drafted:  4th Round, 2006, California High School
• 2008 Club:  Williamsport Crosscutters (Short Season)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/175
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: .Another young projectable athlete in the system, Myers posted some very impressive numbers in limited action with Williamsport, with only a terrible Juiy marring what was a very solid campaign.
• The Good: A solid athlete, Myers has proven that he’s got decent baseball instincts and isn’t quite as raw as expected.  His hitting skills have begun to manifest themselves and his power potential is expected to be through the roof.  He’s got very fast speed already and he’s got a decent arm in center as well. 
• The Bad: Myers is still quite raw and needs time to develop his baseball skills somemore.  He’s also a free swinger that needs to learn some hint of plate discipline.  As he gets older, he’s likely going to have to move over to one of the corner outfield spots. 
• Projection:  High.  Myers is a personal favorite of mine and should he keep it up, he should be one of the more exciting prospects to watch in the Phillies’ system. 
• What He Can Be:  A starting corner outfielder that can hit for power
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Myers needs another year of seasoning in the short season leagues before I can feel up to assigning him to a Full Season club, as he needs work on many facets of his game.  That’s not a knock on him, I just feel that he needs a little more time than most. 

9 – J.A. Happ (LHP)

• DOB: 10/19/82
• Drafted: 3rd round, 2004, Northwestern
• 2008 Club:  Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-6/200
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny: This big lefty has risen steadily through the system and has gotten results for the most part until this year, where he was rather poor with Triple A Ottawa and was worse during an emergency start this year.
• The Good: Happ has gotten a lot of results throughout the years thanks to his solid command and control that allows him to spot his stuff well.  His arsenal consists of a high 80’s fastball, a solid slider and a changeup that is said to be the best in the system.  He mixes in well to keep hitters off balance. 
• The Bad:  Happ’s stuff is just fringy average and many wonder what will his future role will be for the Phillies. 
• Projection:  Low.  Happ is what he is, a finesse lefty that gets by on marginal stuff.  Then again, the same can be said of Jamie Moyer and he’s had some success.  I think he’d be better than Adam Eaton, but more likely he’ll be talked about as trade bait. 
• What He Can Be: A 5th Starter
• 2008 Course Of Action: Happ will likely join Lehigh’s first ever starting rotation, but could be called up to take an emergency start if necessary.

10– Jason Jaramillio (C)

• DOB: 10/9/82
• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2004, Oklahoma State
• 2008 Club:  Philadelphia Phillies (MLB)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/200
• Bats/Throws: S/R
• The Skinny:  The son of Rangers’ hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, Jason had some decent stats in Triple A before going off to compete with Team USA. 
• The Good:   A switch hitter that hits for solid contact, he has the ability to hit for average on both sides of the plate.  He’s got some pop and is an above average receiver behind the dish.
• The Bad:  As afar as home run power is concerned, Jaramillio doesn’t have much.  He’s likely going to be the eventual backup to Carlos Ruiz in the future.
• Projection:  Low.  Unless Jaramillio has some sort of power potential that he hasn’t tapped into, he’s ready to start with the big league club as soon as spring training is over.
• What He Can Be:  A fringe starter/above average backup.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  I think Jaramillio will likely be breaking camp with the big league club, as he’s pretty much ready and would be a solid pairing with Ruiz in terms of a backstop combination. 

11 – Scott Mathieson (RHP)

• DOB: 2/27/84
• Drafted: 17th Round, 2002, Canada High School
• 2008 Club:  Rehab
• Height/Weight: 6-3/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: Mathieson has gone from one of the best pure power arms in the system to one that is currently on the mend.  Tommy John surgery cost him much of the year and when he did return in August, he was horrible. 
• The Good: One of the few pure power pitchers in the system, Mathieson's fastball sits at 92-94 mph and touches 97.  He compliments it with a slider and a changeup, with boht pitches having the chance to be quality pitches. 
• The Bad: His command and control will need to be rebuilt thanks to TJ and it like ly sets him back a year. 
• Projection:  Average.  Mathieson would have made the starting rotation this year had he remained healthy.  Now, all that matters is getting him back to where he was.
• What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation starter.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Mathieson will likely spend time in extended working with pitching instructors to get his command and control back.  I expect for him to likely join Reading sometime in May or early June at the latest.

12 – Greg Golson (CF)

• DOB: 9/17/85
• Drafted:  1st Round, 2004, Texas High School
• 2008 Club:  Reading Phillies (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-0/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: The Phillies had such high hopes for Golson, but frankly, those hopes are beginning to fade as Golson has quite simply been bad and is bordering on becoming a bust after he crapped out in Double A and was poor in the Arizona Fall League.  Keith Law described Golson, in no uncertain terms, as “a mess.”
• The Good:  The best pure athlete in the system, Golson has excellent speed and is a capable defender.  He’s an excellent runner on the basepaths and at the plate, he’s got solid bat speed and enough power potential to make you dream of a young Mike Cameron. 
• The Bad: Golson's swing is a mess and he has no plate discipline at all.  He swings at everything and from what I’ve read, his baseball instincts leave a lot to be desired.  He’s got a huge problem hitting breaking stuff, which limit shis success.
• Projection: Average.  There’s still some hope that Golson can be a solid regular, but he’s beginning to look a lot like a bust, which is not what the Phillies were hoping for this season, as it would have given them some addition depth from which to draw from.
• What He Can Be: A solid regular
• 2008 Course Of Action: Golson will likely head back to Reading in what is a make or break season for him. 

13 – Fabio Castro (LHP)

• DOB:  1/20/85
• Signed:  2001, Dominican Republic (White Sox)
• 2008 Club:  Philadelphia Phillies (MLB)
•  Height/Weight:  5-7/185
•  Bats/Throws:  L/L
•  The Skinny:  Obtained from the Rangers after they drafted him in the Rule 5 draft, Philly acquired him after the Rangers had no choice but to trade him when the Designated him For Assignment.  Castro finished the year well, but problems derailed his sophmore effort.
• The Good:  Castro is a filthy young lefty that should excell as a setup man.  Castro is short, but he’s got a fastball that usually sits at 91-93 mph, plus a changeup with splitter action and a tight curveball. 
• The Bad: His height doesn’t lend itlsef to durability long term.  He also needs to work on his control issues.
• Projection:  Low.  Castro is near ready and if he can get his stuff together, he should be one of the better pieces of a suspect Philly pen.
• What He Can Be:  A capable setup man
• 2008 Course Of Action:  I expect Castro to leave with the Phillies after Spring Training, where he should get a fair shake in the pen and should be one of their better pieces to build around.

14 – Joe Bisenius (RHP)

• DOB: 9/18/82
• Drafted:  12th Round, 2004, Oklahoma City University
• 2008 Club:  Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Triple A)
• Height/Weight:  6-4/205
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  After a breakout season last year, Binsenius was promoted to Ottawa, where it was hoped that he would be able to join the big league pen at some point during the season.  However, Bisenius was awful, though he did work two scoreless innings in a brief big league call up.
• The Good:  Bisenius brings mid 90’s heat regular and compliments it with a slider that is a solid out pitch.
• The Bad:  Bisenius got a lot more hittable and his command deserted him, resulting in his ugly campaign with the Lynx. 
• Projection:  Low.  Bisenius should be near ready and there isn’t much left on him to improve on, other than rediscovering his command.
• What He Can Be:  A capable setup man, spot closer.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Bisenius should return to Triple A this year, but should be an option in the middle of the season when the Phillies need the inevitable bullpen re-enforcement.

15 – Jesus Sanchez (C)

• DOB:   9/24/87
•  Signed:  2004, Venezuela (Yankees)
•  2008 Club:  Gulf Coast Phillies (Rookie)
•  Height/Weight:  5-11/160
•  Bats/Throws:  R/R 
• The Skinny:  Acquired from the Yankees in the Bobby Abreu deal, Sanchez was signed out of Venezulea by the Yankees and made his US debut last season, hitting for a decent average.  He hit a wall this season, hitting just .208/.315/.250, but keeping in mind how old he is, this is only a minor setback.  
• The Good:  Quite athletic for a catcher, Sanchez is a very polished defender that has a soldi glove, and a very strong and accurate arm, making him a possible pitching prospect if this catching thing doesn’t work out for him.  He should hit for a decent batting average in time. 
• The Bad: His biggest drawback is a lack of power, but an even bigger issue is that he’s very inconsistent with the bat, which needs to be worked on. 
• Projection:  High.  I think several outlets have judged Sanchez harshly, but keep in mind that he is only 18 and still has a long way to go in terms of development.  I still think he can be useful and that he needs to be given time to get himself worked out.
• What He Can Be:  A capable starter
• 2008 Course Of Action:  People are already labeling Sanchez as a bust, but keep in mind he’s only 18 years old and likely, if he was eligible for the draft, would have been a second or third round pick on the basis of his glove alone.  Patience is advised with him.

Final Thoughts

The Phillies system is pretty awful and has been for quite some time.  While there are some minor players near ready, they are role players/occasional starters at best and much of the higher talent is farther down in the system and not ready to make any immediate contribution unless it’s as trade bait.  Thus, if the Phillies are to supplement their promising infield core, it’s going to have to be out of the Rule 5 Draft (which yielded Shane Victorino) or through free agency by taking chances on some players coming back from injury.  Help is definitely not on the way and won’t be for at least another two years, by which time, the Phillies’ window may have closed.