Florida Marlins

The Marlins have managed to rebuild twice after conducting firesales thanks to their deep pool of minor league talent, both drafted and obtained via trades.  However, that pool has dried up in the past two years, and not because of the fact that the Marlins have fallen behind in the draft, but rather because they’ve had so much talent graduate to the major league level that it’s left the system very much depleted.  There are several prospects to take note of, but unfortunately, the upper levels of the system remain barren due to the depletion of talent, as I discovered during my trip to see the Albuquerque Isotopes.  That’s not to say that there isn’t fruit on the vine, it’s just very raw right now.

Marlins Top 15

1 – Chris Volstad (RHP)

• DOB: 9/23/86
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Florida High School
• 2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-7/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: Volstad is being groomed for a possible rotation spot come 2009 when Dontrelle Willis books.  In fact, he was being considered to being promoted for a September Call Up until the Marlins thought the better of it, possibly because it would have started his options and arbitration clock earlier than necessary.
• The Good: A imposing 6-7, Volstad is able to get great sink on his fastball, which clocks in at 89-93 mph, and is able to generate a lot of groundballs.  He’s got two solid secondary pitches and his control overall is excellent. 
• The Bad: Volstad hasn’t added any velocity or mass for that matter, which is odd considering how huge he is.  He’s also very hittable, and his strikeout rates are disappointing.
• Projection: Average.  Volstad is the most polished of the 2005 first-rounders, and many within the organization feel that he's the best of the group, and thus the one most likely to reach Double-A ahead of schedule. For that to happen, he'll need to make a number of adjustments, but the Marlins think that more of the groundballs will turn into outs as he moves up. While it's unlikely for everything to click at once, at the same time all of the expected changes are reasonable expectations based on Volstad's talent.
• What He Can Be: A Major League Innings Eater, But A Number Three Or Four Starter
• 2008 Course Of Action: Volstad really didn’t do much in his limited time in Carolina, so I think he’ll likely be back to start the season.  However, the Marlins will probably have him finish the year in Albuquerque, where his groundball tendencies would play well in that ballpark.  Also, it will give me a chance to scout him personally.  Woot!

2 – Gaby Hernandez (RHP)

• DOB: 5/21/86
• Drafted: 3rd round, 2004, Florida High School (Mets)
• 2008 Club:  Albuquerque Isotopes (Triple A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/210
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: One of the big parts of the Paul LoDuca trade, Hernandez has solid stuff and is young enough to continue growing.  While his overall numbers at Carolina are somewhat disappointing, he’s still got a bright future. 
• The Good: Hernandez has a good three pitch mix on him, with a 91-93 mph fastball, curveball, and changeup.  He displays solid command and control, allowing him to spot the ball well.
• The Bad: The curveball can become very hittable against lefties and despite his age, he’s really not going to get any better than he is.  Lastly, he can be flyball friendly, which makes him meat at certain NL Ballparks.
• Projection: Low.  Hernandez is nearly ready and he should benefit from
• What He Can Be: A middle of the rotation starter.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Despite a overall disappointing record at Carolina, Hernandez will likely be sent to Albuquerque, where he had better be able to keep his ERA below 5.  If he runs off a stretch of good starts, he could get a call in a much more diminished Florida rotation.

3 – Sean West (LHP)

• DOB: 6/15/86
• Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Louisiana High School
• 2008 Club:  Greenville Grasshoppers (Low A)
• Height/Weight: 6-8/200
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny: After producing solid results in his Low A season, West wound up getting hurt and had to undergo Tommy John Surgery, costing him the year.
• The Good: A towering lefthander, West threw in the 91-94 mph with the potential of adding more mass, his height giving him plenty of sink on his heater.
• The Bad: Even before the injury, West’s biggest problem was that his secondary offerings were below average pitches, making him similar to Mike Pelfrey in that he’s a one pitch pitcher.  He also lost velocity in later innings.
• Projection: High.  The sky is still the limit on West and if he can get back to where he was and be able to improve his pitches, the Marlins have another homegrown lefty ace once again.
• What He Can Be: A Dominant Top Of The Rotation Starter
• 2008 Course Of Action: High. West's ceiling is greater than any of the arms from Florida's 2005 first-round pitcher-fest, yet the gap between what he is and what he can be is significant. Like all of them, a huge season is possible as they move en masse to the pitching-friendly Florida State League.

4 – Ryan Tucker (RHP)

• DOB: 12/6/86
• Drafted: 1st round, 2005, California High School
• 2008 Club:  Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: Yet another young starter in the Florida system, Tucker looks to be a potential stud in the rotation if he continues to improve.  Of all of the Florida arms, I like Tucker the most.
• The Good: The best raw arm in the Marlins’ system, Tucker has a low to mid 90’s heater that touches 98 and has a plus slider to compliment it.  He also has the makings o####ood changeup.
• The Bad: He can be very inconsistent, which leads to his overall disappointing numbers.  His command also comes and goes. 
• Projection: High. Tucker's biggest thing holding him back is the fact that his breaking pitches are lagging behind him.  Once he gets them going, he’s going to rise quickly.
• What He Can Be: A Number 3 Starter, Maybe A Number 2 in the Future
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Tucker will likely be headed to Carolina this next season, where the Marlins hope he’ll be able to make some progress on harnessing his off-speed stuff.

5 – Matt Dominguez (3B)

• DOB: 8/28/89
• Drafted: 1st round, 2007, California High School
• 2008 Club:  Gulf Coast Marlins (Rookie)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/190
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: The first positional prospect on the list, Dominguez held out until the final hour, when he finally signed for slot money.  Because he signed too late to sign, there really isn’t much we can make of him other than his high school career, which is an awesome one.
• The Good: Dominguez is already regarded to be a future gold glover.  He’s very smooth, has soft hands and has a strong arm enough to remain at third.    He has some of the top tools as well, power being the best one in particular.
• The Bad: Really, the biggest knock on Dominguez is that he doesn’t have one tool that stands out above the others.   
• Projection: High. Dominguez will likely be the next great Marlins’ third baseman.  I think he’ll be a lot like Ryan Zimmerman, or more appropriately, Mike Lowell, another great Marlns’ Third Baseman
• What He Can Be: A Gold Glove Third Baseman That Hits Well.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Dominguez will begin his career in Rookie League, where he could eventually finish in a Short Season League by the end of the year.

6 – Brett Sinkbeil (RHP)

• DOB: 12/26/84
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2006, Missouri State
• 2008 Club: Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/170
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny: Overall, I would have to think that Sinkbeil’s season was somewhat disappointing.  He didn’t nearly do as well as I thought he would do, despite the decent numbers.
• The Good: The rare college arm in the system, Sinkeil is an above average pitcher with a low-90s sinker that can touch 95 and an above-average slider. He has good size and clean, repeatable mechanics.
• The Bad: Sinkbeil missed time last year with forearm tightness, something that needs to be kept an eye on.  His changeup still hasn’t progressed and he may wind up in the bullpen. 
• Projection: Average.  Sinkbeil will likely get sent to Double A, but if the forearm issues or a lack of progress with the changeup continues, the bullpen may be the best role for him, though he would make a capable setup man.
• What He Can Be: A Number Three starter
• 2008 Course Of Action: Carolina should field one of the more intimidating rotations around, with a potential rotation (by me) of Sinkbeil, Tucker and Volstad, but Sinkbeil may be in line for a call up by the end of the season.

7 – Aaron Thompson (LHP)

• DOB: 2/28/87
• Height/Weight: 6-3/195
• Drafted: 1st Round, 2005, Texas High School
• 2008 Club:  Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Thompson is yet another member of the Marlins’ young guns, and was selected not only because of his immense polish for a young kid, but also because he would be a factor sooner rather than later.  A polished lefty drafted 22nd overall in 2005, Thompson should move faster than some of the club's other recent picks.  Thus far, the plan already appears to be working, as Thompson is already in High A, with Double A coming up soon.
• The Good: The stereotypical crafty left has excellent command and control over this stuff, wielding an 87-90 mph fastball and plus slider to get good results.  His changeup is average and when he mixes all of them together, he’s able to induce a fair amount of groundballs to help him succeed. 
• The Bad: Thompson’s success has been more him depending on his command and control than by him blowing people away.  Double A will likely force him to adjust.  He also has a slight frame and really could afford to put some poundage on. 
• Projection:  Average. Thompson is already moving quickly and should be a factor for Florida as a starter something next year.  However, he’s not a difference maker and wouldn’t be much more than a Number Four starter for the fish. 
• What He Can Be: An Back Of The Rotation Starter.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Thompson is likely headed to Double A, where he’ll round out an exceptional rotation for Florida. 

8 – Tom Hickman (CF)

• DOB: 4/18/88
• Drafted: 2nd Round, 2006, Georgia High School
• 2008 Club:  Jamestown Jammers (Short Season)  
• Height/Weight: 6-1/180
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny: Though Hickman also had potential as a left handed pitcher, the Marlins committed to him after taking him in the second round.  After a decent season where he hit .263 with 2 Homers and 20 RBI’s in 50 games, Hickman was abysmal in 2007 and likely will repeat short season ball.
• The Good: Hickman has a good lefty swing and makes hard contact with the ball.  His athletic ability is one of the best I the system and he’s got a decent amount of pseed and power potential.  The Marlins are gambling that his tools should eventually make him into a outfield regular. 
• The Bad: Can someone say platoon split?  Hickman murdered lefties, but was murdered by right handers all of last season.  Oddly enough, last year it was the other way around.  He also doesn’t project to be a centerfielder, especially as he adds mass.  He regressed on his plate discipline, as his walk totals dropped while his strikeout totals remained the same. 
• Projection: Very High. Despite his bad year, Hickman is a long ways off anyway, so I’m willing to give him a mulligan for his terrible season in hopes that he builds on it. 
• What He Can Be: A starting corner outfielder.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  After that brutal year in Jamestown, Hickman will be heading back, hopefully where he’ll be able to build off of his failures.

9 – Chris Coghlan (2B)

• DOB:  6/18/85  
• Drafted:  1st Round (S), 2006, University Of Mississippi  
• 2008 Club:  Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
• Height/Weight:  6-1/190
• Bats/Throws:  L/R
• The Skinny: Coghlan started the year out right in Low A, hitting .325 with 10 dingers, 64 RBI’s and at OBP of .419.  However, upon being promoted to the Florida State League, he vanished, going Mendoza with a dramatic drop in production.  However, most of this can be blamed on the fact that Jupiter has one of the worst hitting parks in the minors. 
• The Good: A polished hitter, Coghlan shows the ability to make contact, work the count, as well as hit for some gap power.  He also has good hands and some speed to work with as well.  The tools are there for him to be at least an average major leaguer or utility dude.
• The Bad: Coghlan isn’t the power hitter that Dan Uggla is, nor will he be.  Defensively, because he only became a second baseman this year, he’s still struggling to learn the position, which in turn may have affected his hitting.  Still, many feel that he’ll become at least average by the time he’s ready. 
• Projection:  Fair.  Coghlan still has some work to do, but he should be able to shake off his late season yips and be able to finish in Carolina by the end of the year.
• What He Can Be:  An above average second baseman.
• 2008 Course Of Action: Coglhan will be heading back to Florida, where he should be able to rebound and finish in Carolina.  However, with Dan Uggla pretty much a fixture in Florida (unless he moves to first base), there isn’t a spot of Coghlan to move into in 2009.  It’s more than likely that he could be traded if he gets off to a hot start next year.

10 – Mike Stanton (CF/1B)  

•  DOB:  11/8/89
• Drafted:  2nd Round, 2007, California High School
• 2008 Club:  Jamestown Jammers (Short Season)
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• Height/Weight: 6-5/200
• The Skinny:  One of the top athletes in the draft, the Marlins paid slightly above slot for Stanton, but the bonus will be spread across four years thanks to Stanton’s status as a multisport athlete, as he was heading to USC as a baseball and football player.
• The Good:  A excellent athlete, Stanton has good physical tools.  He’s got good power potential and some decent speed potential as well.
• The Bad:  Stanton is still raw and is light years away from the majors.  He needs work in almost every facet of his game.
• Projection:  Very High.  Stanton looks like he could be a solid starter in center or at the very least an Adam Dunn type masher at first, judging from the scouting reports, Baseball America love and notes from other sources.  If they’re to believed, the Marlins could have something here.
• What He Can Be:  An offensive power source
• 2008 Course Of Action:  I expect Stanton to make his full season debut with the Jammers, where he should remain the whole year while getting work on turning his considerable tools into performance.

11 – Gregory Burns (OF)

• DOB: 11/7/86
• Drafted: 3rd Round, 2004, California High School
• 2008 Club:  Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/215
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  A sleeper, Burns has great potential, but hasn’t put much of it in terms of results.  This changed this season, as Burns hit .280/.401/.748 for Low A Greensboro, tearing up the Sally League in the process and showing a lot of improvement. 
• The Good:  Morrison has good power potential that is starting to manifest itself.  He still has some projection on him in that he’s still a bit of a stringbean, but he’s shown the ability to make solid contact at the plate. 
• The Bad:  Burns wore out as the season ran on, as seen by his first half numbers (.307/.420/.799) and his second half numbers (.252/.381/.693).  He’s also shown that he’s a little more ordinary against right handers.   
• Projection:  Average.  Burns has been in the system for quite a while, but is still only going to be 21 and has a world of potential for him. 
• What He Can Be:  A starting corner outfielder
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Burns will be headed to Jupiter where he’ll be playing against some advanced competition.  He’ll need to keep the average up as well as show some doubles power, as Jupiter is one of the worst hitters parks in the minors. 

12 – John Raynor (CF)

• DOB: 1/4/84
• Drafted: 9th Round, 2006, UNC Wilmington
• 2008 Club:  Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/185
• Bats/Throws: R/R
• The Skinny:  A senior signee last year, Raynor had an outstanding full-season debut with Greensboro, hitting .333/.519/.948 with 13 Homers, 57 RBI’s, 54 stolen bases, and earning the Marlins Minor League Player of the Year award. 
• The Good:  Raynor’s best asset is his athleticism and his speed.  He has excellent range in center and is a solid base runner.  He has a good enough arm to stay in center and has a quick stroke that allows him to put the ball into play.  He’s got some power, more of the doubles variety, but all in all he’s an excellent prospect for the moment.
• The Bad:  Raynor takes questionable routes in center, something he needs to work on.  There is also some question as to whether or not he was simply a college player taking advantage of a easier level of competition.
• Projection:  Average.  Raynor has been a nice surprise and could eventually solve the Marlins’ long standing centerfield issue internally.  The problem is that he’s at least another two years off if they accelerate him, which they might very well do, considering that he’s 23 and will need to start proving that he has a future in the pros.
• What He Can Be:  A starting centerfielder, along the lines of Wily Taveras
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Raynor will likely be heading to Jupiter, where the Marlins hope that he’ll have a solid couple of months to warrant promotion to the Mudcats, where he would be up against more appropriate age related talent. 

13 – Graham Taylor (LHP)

• DOB:  5/25/84
• Drafted:  10th Round, 2006, Miami (Ohio)
• 2008 Club:  Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
• Height/Weight: 6-3/225
• Bats/Throws: L/L
• The Skinny:  Taylor won the organizational Triple Crown, tying Volstad with 12 wins finishing with a 2.99 ERA and 138 strikeouts, also earning him the Marlins’ Pitcher Of The Year award. 
• The Good:  Taylor is a crafty lefty that isn’t afraid to throw strikes.  He’s got a lot of deception on his fastball and combined with his offspeed pitches, a slider and a changeup, both good pitches, and his pinpoint command and control, Taylor was able to get results.
• The Bad:  Taylor’s fastball clocks in at around 86-87, meaning that if he’s not on, he’s going to get killed. 
• Projection:  Average.  Taylor is an older pitcher, but has gotten by mostly because of his exceptional command and control.  But he plays in a league with a lot of pitchers parks and with groundball ability, he should manage to survive and be a decent starting pitcher.
• What He Can Be:  A back of the rotation pitcher
• 2008 Course Of Action: Taylor will likely begin the year back in Jupiter, where he showed signs of fatigue during a late promotion there, and should remain the whole year there before a late season promotion to Carolina, to see how far along he is.

14 – Gaby Sanchez (1B)  

• DOB: 9/02/83
• Drafted:  4th Round, 2005, University of Miami (FL)
• 2008 Club:  Carolina Mudcats (Double A)
• Height/Weight: 6-2/225 
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  Sanchez was the New York-Penn League's MVP after being drafted in 2005 and made an even better impression after opening last season at Greensboro, but he had a broken hand interrupt his season in June and then a broken toe end it in August.  This season, Sanchez hit .270 with 40 doubles and 70 RBI’s along with a .433 slugging percentage.  However, Jupiter is one of the worst hitting parks in the majors and his numbers were better after the All Star Break.
• The Good:  Sanchez is a lot like current Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs.  He has shown that he has some hitting skills, with some solid power potential and the ability to draw a walk or two.  He also has the potential to make contact and hit for a decent average in the past.
• The Bad:  Sanchez is limited to first base, meaning he’ll have to slug his way to the majors.  Also, he was a bit old for the league, which means he needs to hurry up.
• Projection:  Fair.  Sanchez’s time is ticking and he needs to prove that he is a legitimate option in the future for the Marlins at first base.  He needs to at least put up solid numbers in Double A in order to retain prospect status and not start get categorized as organization filler.
• What He Can Be:  A starting first baseman, similar to…Mike Jacobs.
• 2008 Course Of Action:  Now 24, Sanchez needs to start to hurry up and prove that he’s a viable first baseman of the future.  The Marlins were hoping that Sanchez would be ready by 2009, which would have allowed them to trade Jacobs, who would be arbitration eligible for the first time.  Sanchez, therefore, is very much under the gun to hurry.

15 – Carlos Martinez (RHP)

• DOB: 5/26/82 
• Signed:  2008, Dominican Republic 
• 2008 Club: Florida Marlins (MLB) 
• Height/Weight:  6-3/200
• Bats/Throws:  R/R
• The Skinny:  After having to undergo Tommy John Surgery, Martinez was terrible when he returned, but he was okay during winter league action while undergoing rehab, so he should be ready to compete again soon.
• The Good:  Martinez throws in the mid 90’s and compliments it with a hard slider. 

•  The Bad:  Control issues from the procedure are still an issue and will have to be worked on.

• Projection:  Low.  Martinez should be ready to help out the Marlins.  It is there hope that he could eventually be their long term option at closer.

•  What He Can Be:  A closer.

• 2008 Course Of Action:  Now healed, Martinez should be ready to compete for a job with the Marlins this season, where they hope he can provide a solid bridge up to Kevin Gregg. 

Final Thoughts

For the most part, the level of talent at the top of the organization is pretty much non-existent, thanks to the vast amount of graduations, but there is a lot of talent in the lower levels, pitching in particular, that could make some noise sometime in the 2009 season.  But for the most part, there isn’t much in terms of immediate graduations, as every prospect that could have made the Marlins already has, meaning that the organization needs to either taken advantage of some injury related rehab projects to contend or hope that some of their other players step up and continue to develop.  Help isn’t on the way for a while, meaning that Florida will have to make do with what they have or trade their two remaining assets in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in order to get some more reinforcements.

Sources, Scouting Reports, and Thanks to:  Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), Keith Law (ESPN), Soxprospects.com, B.J. Medrano, Jim Callis And The Rest Of Baseball America, Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), MiLB.com, Sam Corral and Erica Belmontes, Ernie Carlson, Lonestarball.com, Jamey Newberg (Newbergreport.com), Brewerfan.net and Mike Hindman (Rangers Farm Report)