I had posted this earlier, but for some reason it didn't take, so here it is again.
On The Block – Jason Bay
Recent talk out of Pittsburgh has the Pirates potentially trading the face of their franchise, Jason Bay, in order to help replensish a impoverished farm system. Bay is regarded to be the best moveable part not starting in the rotaiton right now, as he's due $13.25 million the next two seasons.
Bay for the most part has accepted the fact, though he'd like to stay with the Pirates and help turn things around.
The Why: I've just said the why just now, but pretty much because the Pirates feel they have options, he's cheap and it wouldn't hurt to see what potential package you could get in return.
The Rumored Asking Price: The papers have people predicting a Bartolo Colon/Mark Teixeira deal. That won’t happen. More likely, an average pitching prospect and a positional player prospect will get it done, though a third guy could be included. Who knows?
Can A Trade Be Done: Yes. Bay doesn’t have a no-trade clause and with the market for outfield corners looking rather shallow at the moment, Bay would fetch a couple of decent prospects, should a GM have expendable prospects he’d be willing to deal.
The Good: Bay is coming off of an off year, but he'#### for power and has good speed on the basepaths. His plate discipline is reasonably good and he's regarded to be a solid defender in left field. He's also regarded to be a good clubhouse guy and would be a solid complimentry piece (not a star) to add to your lineup.
Potential Hang-ups:
Performance In 2007: Are you buying on the pre-2007 Bay or the 2007 version of Bay? He's a gamble, but it's got to be asked what you're getting here.
Health - Bay has also undergone some health issues this past year and you have to wonder if they'll creep back up again.
Stupid Asking Prices - The Pirates have asked for absolutely stupid packages in the past for their players and have either been burned or shot down completely, the most recent of which was their offer for Jack Wilson (3B Troy Glaus) from the Jays, although, looking back, maybe the Jays should have taken it.
Potential Suitors – In Alphabetical Order
San Francisco Giants – San Fran is going to need an outfielder and Bay could fit the bill. The Giants could concievably decide to package Noah Lowry along with someone else, perhaps Nate Scherholtz, in order to get a deal done.
Philadelphia Phillies – This could be done if the Phillies feel that they could have a deal for Pat Burrell, which could be done if they were to involve the next team bellow. They could flip Burrell to the White Sox, provided he waives his no trade, and gain Bay, who is cheaper, and potentially Joe Crede, who would be a solid fit at third base, strengthening the lineup and making it a bit more fiscally flexible if they want to add anything else during the off-season.
Chicago White Sox – Or, the White Sox could flip Bay for Crede and change and bypass the Phillies altogether, though the Pirates and White Sox would need to come up with a fit. Perhaps Bay and Zach Duke for Crede and Lance Broadway?
Texas Rangers – This is an interesting fit, from a non-homer perspective. .Texas needs a left fielder and could use someone young to build around like Bay. It would allow the Rangers to use Frank Cattalonotto at first base, limiting his defensive limitations and allow Texas to field a potential outfield of Bay, Centerfielder to Be Named Later, and David Murphy with Marlon Byrd as the utility outfielder. The Rangers could trade for Bay, including Joaquin Arias, who could still be useful to the Pirates in the future, along with a couple of interesting arms in Robinson Tejeda, who could still be an effective starter and would be able to work in the pen for a bit to get his confidence up, and Gerald Laird, who needs to get the hell out of Texas and has experience to handle a staff. If the Pirates want to sub, I'd give them the option of adding Luis Mendoza, who has become an effective groundball pitcher with some promise. This could be overpaying a bit, but I'd be willing to give it a shot.
New York Mets – The Mets are another organization that could potentially go after Bay, as they are in need of a left fielder. However, it would almost certainly involve one of their talented young outfielders, likely Carlos Gomez, who needs another year, and a pitching prospect, likely Mike Pelfrey, who the Mets are quickly souring on.
Minnesota Twins – Bucco Blog reported that the Twins may have some interest, with Matt Garza being mentioned in return. I don't think it would be Garza, but another prospect, Kevin Slowley perhps, would be close enough to a deal. The Twins in the past haven't been willing to make a trade, especially when it comes to their small horde of pitching prospects, but I would pull the trigger here, especially since the Twins need a big bat and much of their lineup is filled with defensive replacements. I think it would benefit both sides.
If I Had To Make A Trade Now: It would look like this...
The Texas Rangers trade RHP Robinson Tejeda, RHP Luis Mendoza, SS Joaquin Arias to the Pittsburgh Pirates for LF Jason Bay
That's really the only deal that I can think of right now on short notice that would go through. Thoughts?
Interesting stuff re: the Phillies, Pat Burrell, Joe Crede, and Bay.
I'd say it's highly likely Mike Lowell is wearing Phillies pinstripes in 2008, but given how little is available in the market of starting third basemen, Crede wouldn't be a bad #2 option.
However, I doubt Burrell, who has a full no-trade clause, would accept a trade that would land him anywhere but Boston or the Bronx.
With Rowand leaving, and with Bourn's ceiling looking something like that of a young Juan Pierre, and with still uncertainty surrounding Jayson Werth, the Phillies could go after Bay anyway and stick him in right field. He does have a great arm, after all: 13 assists, which ranks second among NL left-fielders, behind only Alfonso Soriano's 19 assists.
Is Bay a fan-favorite among Pirates fans? I would think so -- who else would they root for?
I've been looking through basically everything out there involving the Pirates farm system & potential trades, so I've given this move a lot of thought even before the rumors thought. Nice post on the subject.
It's crazy to think that they could trade Bay, who before this season...was probably viewed as their franchise player. But we've all seen how patient the Pirates can be with their top players (see Oliver Perez).
But it is possible. If they do so, they will be gambling on McCutchen becoming the leftfielder of the future. Quite a risk, considering he has yet to take his first at-bat in the majors.
But Bay's salary could be an absolute steal over the next couple of years, just one more reason that many teams might find a potential deal attractive. Compare prices with him and Carlos Lee.
I would prefer him to stay put, but I also see how a 2-for-1 swap could work. Ironically, I think it would take a trade deal much like the one used to acquire Bay in the first place. They traded up Brian Giles for Jason Bay & Oliver Perez. At one point, that looked like the steal of the century. Two All-Stars for the price of an outfielder past his prime.
But to pull it off, I believe they will need to secure a solid starting pitcher...or a can't-miss prospect. I don't think Matt Garza will cut the mustard, but that's just my opinion.
I might even prefer them to take 2 starting pitchers for Bay.
I'd rather see them deal Adam LaRoche to fill needs, and keep Bay a little longer. We'll see how it unfolds.
If you saw how Jason Bay played leftfield this past year, the word solid doesn't describe it, awful is more like it. Now it was rumored that he played the whole year with a bum shoulder and knee, he had the worst slump of his career in June through July. I think trading Bay makes sense, from the point that the Pirates couldn't play worse without him. If the right deal can be made, I would approve of it, but only if the right deal can be made. Obviously pitching is a need, but a solid position player, probably at third is the deal. If the Pirates want to win for the future, they can't be afraid to take chances, because they can't keep doing business like they have.
Ultra: Glad you liked the post. Juan Pierre isn't a bad comp to Bourn. A good player to have while he's cheap, a disaster to have over the course of a free agency deal. Ask the Dodgers. If the Phillies in this scenario would trade for Bay and stick him in right, would the Phillies trade Victorino or Bourn for other areas of need, maybe help in the pen?
Shoot: Actually, I think there would be a market for LaRoche if the Pirates were to throw him out there and see if there were any takers. The Rangers I know would be interested. I think that the problem is that his stock is down after his crappy start to the season, so the Pirates would likely have to hold onto him and wait for him to build back his value.
his defense was awful this year because he needs knee surgery. unfortunately for the pirates they wont get his true value in return, just because they're pittsburg.
texas arent going to be competitive next year so they wont do it. twins dont trade for anyone, phillies might only if they can unload burrell, giants is a possibility only if they sign arod and some other guys.
mets would be the smart choice, but only if they steal him without giving up pelfrey or humber. but i believe they still have moises for $8mil this year so that could be a problem.
realistically he'll be in pittsburg until July 30th, 2009
I would hope the Phillies' upper management would at least be willing to explore trade possibilities for Victorino and Bourn, but I imagine they would want to keep Victorino because he's such a fan favorite. Of course, if they're trying to acquire a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, rather than a corner outfielder they don't desperately need, most teams are going to ask for Victorino rather than Bourn because of the higher ceiling.
how are those potential suitors in alphabetical order? as for bay, he ####*ks. we'll (the twins) give ya lew ford, a case of flat beer, and and some rotten tomatoes for bay. you can use those beers and tomatoes to throw at lew ha!
Last edited by Eff_the_yankees on October 14th at 4:47 PM.
bay doesnt suck, he just plays in pittsburg so nobody gives him love. hes a .280 25+hr, 100rbi hitter on a horrible team, for only $7million? all 32 teams would take him
I think that the proposals are pretty good....except you are forgetting a team that could use a pretty good left feilder... the Braves. They just lost Andruw Jones and thy could put Francouer in center with Diaz/Harris in right and Bay in left. Good move for new GM Wren and Bay is relativly cheap. Maybe give up Reyes and Prado for him. Just an opinion...
i'm not sure that philly will be in the bay market. doubtful that stinky pat will waive his no trade. burrell actually had a great second half so people might actually want him. if philly can't get involved in a three way with a big market team, bay isn't going to philly.
Just curious, i've been hearing talk about lowell possibly going to philly. any reason to think that might happen or just wishful thinking from fans?
If the Red Sox don't bring back Mike Lowell, the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Astros and Yankees (if they lose A-Rod) would all be major bidders. But Lowell has sent signals to his friends on the Phillies that, in the words of one of them: "He would love to play in Philadelphia." And why not? Lowell is a .353 lifetime hitter in 70 career plate appearances in Citizens Bank Park, with seven homers, six doubles and a .750 slugging percentage. The Phillies could have about $27 million coming off the books this winter, depending on whether Aaron Rowand departs. And a year from now, Pat Burrell's $14 million will also disappear. So the Phillies should have money to spend to address their third-base and bullpen issues.
I am a die hard Pirates fan (yes there are a few of us out there) and have been for all of my 45 years ... that said, I would deal Jason Bay for a bag of used practice balls and a jock strap to be named later. He plays without passion, has a bad knee and couldn't throw my grandmother out on a sac fly and she's been dead since 1970. Seriously, they have to deal him now, his value won't get any higher than now. He's signed for two more years at a reasonable price and could fetch us a few prospects that we desperately need. If the Twins are willing to deal Matt Garza I would do that one straight up. Of course whomever the new Bucs pitching coach will be will probably tinker with his mechancis and screw him up for the rest of his career but that's neither here nor there. I'm a huge b-ball fan but have to admit that I am not familiar with Mendoza or Arias from the Rangers but I'd do it if I couldn't get Garza first. Screw Crede, he sucks and we have enough of those kind of players. And I'd deal Adam LaRoche as well. Another stiff who plays like he's in a coma. By the time he gets hot the Bucs are 15 games under .500, another Brian Giles type. Dealing both Bay & LaRoche would be a great start for new GM Neal Huntingdon. Also trade Salomon Torres if you can, he's washed up. The only position players worth keeping are Jack Wilson, Freddie Sanchez and Xavier Nady. The rest suck, especially catcher Ronny Paulino. I don't think that Andrew McCutcheon is ready yet, he struggled in Double A last year. And don't me started on the pitching staff ... young guns my ####. I
Despite Bay being second among NL left fielders in assists, behind only Alfonso Soriano.
Also trade Salomon Torres if you can, he's washed up
Granted, he didn't appear to have a good year by any standard last season, but his WHIP was about the same last season (1.405) as it was during his great 2006 season (1.457).
What happened to Torres last season is that he stopped inducing ground balls as frequently as he did in 2006 and allowed more fly balls.
His GB/FB/LD percentages the last two seasons:
2006: 55.2/26.2/18.5
2007: 47.8/33.5/18.6
The only position players worth keeping are Jack Wilson, Freddie Sanchez and Xavier Nady.
Wow, Jack Wilson? Really? He of the career .690 OPS?
I recently posted about the Giants upcoming offseason, check it out. I have higher hopes for the Rangers next season. I don't think they're very far from making a run at the playoffs. As far as Bay goes, he just doesn't seem like a game changer, similar to a Mike Sweeney. Great player, not a championship guy unless put around other champions.
Examples of championship guys - Matt Holiday, Eric Byrnes, Curt Shilling, Derek Jeter
Morisato
The travails that is the Phillies is surreal to say the least. They've languished in mediocority for so long that it's become endemic and a way of life for the franchise and the fans. So rebuilding at this time seems to be the thing to do. But I wouldn't hold out much hope for anyone wanting to go there. And as for Ultrs'a belief that Lowell will end up there. It's nothing but a pipedream on his path. There's a better chance of Jenna Bush turning up there for a visit and walking around the grounds.
Elf: Hey, I had to retype the argument from memory directly onto the Blog Sheet. So sue me!
Jimbo: I'm not sure how great Francouer would be in center. I think it's more likely that they'll play Escobar or Brent Lilibridge in center next year.
Bean: I think that the Phils got a great shot at getting Lowell. I think Gillick's motto next season is World Series or bust...and I think they've got a great shot at doing so.
Ultra: "Eric Byrnes is putting up a fiery, win-desirey .539 OPS in the NLCS."
Congradulations. I just spit my coffee on the computer screen.
I think ya'll have been smoking some loco weed. Trade LaRoche? I don't think so. The Bucs have control of him for at least two more years. He's way above average defensively and I have to believe he'll get off to a better start next year and put up decent numbers. Besides, they don't have anyone as good as LaRoche to play first if he's traded. As for Bay - yeah, I could see trading him if he brings good value in return. I'd have to get at least one major league ready player and a bonified prospect in return, preferably a starting pitcher before I'd pull the trigger on that deal. But I'd gamble on Bay returning to his pre-2007 form. That would make his value even higher if and when Huntington decides to deal him.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
Do You Have Comment You Don't Want All To See? Just Want To Talk Baseball? Email Me at morisatos_blo g AT yahoo.com. Email's edited to keep away the Spam.
