Getting close to the end here.  Only seven left after this.  Where will the hat want to go?

Apparently, north to the border.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' payroll has more than doubled since 2005, but it seems to be a fact of life int eh AL East.  Howver, this team isn't any closer to the postseason than it was two years ago. Though they do point to their winning record and second place finish ahead of the Boston Red Sox in 2006 as proof of improvement, this team still has a lot of holes to fill.

Starting Rotation

1. Roy Halladay (RHP) – For all the offseason changes and acquisitions, the Blue Jays will live and die on the health of their ace,  who hasn't put together a healthy season since winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2003.  Still, he did finished fourth in the league in innings pitched in 2006 despite forearm tightness and pitched quite well.  Halladay should pitch almost an entire season and should be able to last long enough to give the questionable bullpen enough of a lead to keep in the game.
2. A.J. Burnett (RHP) – Burnett wasn’t bad last year, but those numbers would look a lot better had Burnett pitched a full season and not spent part of it on the DL like he usually does.  With the departure of Ted Lilly, the Jays will be depending heavily on Burnett as he is their number two starter.  When Burnett is healthy, he’s a solid pitcher, especially when his stuff is clicking together.  When he’s not, or when he’s battling control issues, that’s when Burnett flames out like the Hindenburg. 
3. Gustavo Chacin (LHP) – Chacin was a disappointment last year, regressing from his solid 2005 performance and declining in wins and strikeouts, all the while suffering from a ballooning ERA.  He’ll have to get it together if the Jays hope to go into the playoffs.
4. Tomo Ohka (RHP) – Ohka is okay as a starter, able of putting together some reasonable performances whenever he’s healthy.  Ohka was one of the better starters available on the market and if he’s given a shot, he could surprise.  He did improve as the season went on last year after coming back from injury.
5. John Thompson (RHP) – This veteran right hander tried to dismiss possible indications of arm issues after his terrible year last year.  The Jays were willing to give him a shot.  Unlike Zambrano, I think Thompson is on his last legs.

Bullpen

• B.J. Ryan (Closer) – Ryan proved to be a worthwhile addition for the Jays, who needed a lights out stopper at the end of the pen, as Miguel Batista was better suited to be a starter.  Ryan put up all star numbers and finished third in the AL in saves and his ERA was second in the league.  He should be a solid stopper again this year.
• Brandon League (Setup Man) – The loss of Justin Speier hurts Toronto in the respect that they lack a proven setup man.  With that said, it’s hoped that League can suitably function in that capacity.  He looks like he’ll be fine, and he may even be able to spot close from time to time.
• Jason Frasor RHP) – Frasor will help split the setup load with League.  In spite of a mediocre record, Frasor was good after the All-star break.
• Scott Downs (LHP) – This capable swingman can start when he has to, but he’s far better as a middle reliever.
• Brian Tallet (LHP) – Tallet is a dependable lefty that can last for more than an inning when he’s needed to.
• Jeremy Accardo (RHP) – This enigmatic middle reliever imploded in September and will be relied upon to rediscover his rookie dominance.

Starting Lineup

1. Reed Johnson (LF) – Johnson has become an everyday player and has found his niche in the Toronto lineup, as a leadoff man, where his good approach to the plate have lead him to have a decent on base percentage and have allowed him to be productive.  Johnson, however, could be moved, as the Jays are trying to figure out a way to integrate Adam Lind into the lineup on a regular basis.
2. Alex Rios (RF) – Who is the real Alex Rios?  Is it the guy that hit .302 with 17 homers and 82 RBI’s last season, or is he the guy who averaged .293 with 3 Homers and 38 RBI’s in 7 seasons in the minors?  The Jays hope he’s somewhere in between that while continuing to be a solid performer who can get on base and set up some of the bigger bats in the lineup after him.  Rios has three years of service time left on him and just collected arbitration (he qualified for the exact amount of time needed to arbitration.  One fewer game would have resulted in an extra year of control left on him) this past offseason.  With top prospect Adam Lind ready for the lineup, the Jays have been shopping Rios, who can also play center, to other teams in hopes of getting pitching.  So far, no team has stepped up with a strong enough offer, though the Jays were reportedly hoping that the Marlins would give up a young starter in return for Rios.
3. Vernon Wells (CF) – I gotta give credit where credit is due, in this case, to the Jays for coming up with a long term deal for this solid centerfielder.  Wells appears to have returned to his 2004 form and he’s a solid hitter in the three spot, where his speed, power and excellent contact skills will result in a lot of opportunities for the middle of the lineup.
4. Troy Glaus (3B) – The Jays were able to trade for the veteran Glaus, who was also drawing interest from Boston, during the last off-season and he was effective for them.  Glaus is a solid middle of the order bat that can hit for power and can draw walks as well, all the while showing some solid plate discipline as well.  He’s a adequate defender and all in all should be good for another year.
5. Frank Thomas (DH) – GM J.P Ricciardi signed Thomas to give the team a regular DH, as last season, the Blue Jays used 14 different DHs, resulting in an overall production of 16 homers and tied for 12th in runs scored by their DHs.  Thomas had a terrific season last year with Oakland, putting himself closer to hitting 500 home runs and earning himself another payday in the process.  Thomas has said that he envisions himself playing until he's 42.  That may be a little too optimistic.  In spite of playing most of last season, he did miss 13 games with a quad strain.  If he stay’s healthy, he’ll hit fifth in the lineup and add another dangerous power bat. 
6. Lyle Overbay (1B) – Overbay is far from a huge power bat, but he’s not bad in the sixth spot, where his patient approach to the plate and his doubles power will work well.  Defensively, he’s got solid range and good hands. 
7. Gregg Zaun (C) – Zaun re-upped with Toronto after Rod Barajas inexplicably backed out of a deal.  Zaun set career highs in homers and slugging percentage at the age of 35, plus he’s a switch hitter.  However, Zaun is 35 and that’s usually when you start to lose your bat as a catcher. 
8. Aaron Hill (2B) – Hill is an excellent second baseman that many in the Toronto organization feel could eventually become a Gold Glove caliber second baseman.  He hits for a high average and works the count well for walks and reduces his strikeouts when he can.  He doesn’t have a lot of power but his excellent approach to the plate will keep his averages high and him on base.
9. Royce Clayton (SS) – Surely there were better options available than Clayton.  Clayton has never hit much and his best attribute, his defense, has slipped.  He’s got to be the backup, as I doubt he can start.  (Checks Roster) Never mind.  Clayton is the starter.  God help us all.

Bench

• Matt Stairs (DH) – I'm still wondering what exactly Stairs' role will be with the Jays considering that they have an established DH in Frank Thomas.  Stairs isn't the power hitter he used to be, but his on-base skills are still good and he's considered to be a clubhouse favorite.  This is one of the more questionable signings of the off-season.   The only way I can figure this out is that the Jays aren't completely sure that Thomas can stay healthy.
• Adam Lind (OF) – Lind is an outstanding offensive prospect who has never hit below .310 at any level while showing constantly improving power.  Lind also has some great plate discipline to go with his power as well.  The problem is that Lind isn’t an exceptional fielder, who he may be able to hold his own with some coaching.  Depending on what happens with Alex Rios, Lind will spend time alternating from the bench to the field to DH.
• Jason Smith (INF) – Smith is a decent lefty that can play all four infield positions, plus hit a little.
• John MacDonald (SS) – Strictly should be used as a defensive replacement.
• Jason Philips (C/1B) – Versatile young catcher is a solid defender and can play first as well.

Disabled List

• Victor Zambrano (RHP) – Zambrano has had control issues and durability problems and quite frankly, the Mets shouldn’t have traded for him back when they thought they were in contention, but weren’t.  He’s got average stuff that could make him a back of the rotation starter, provided that he improves his control and bounces back from TJ as expected.  Zambrano should improve as the season goes on, though if he recovers quickly (as Mets prospect Philip Humber did) he could be a steal for the Blue Jays.  I think he’ll begin the season on the DL, to allow him more time to get his control back.

Down On The Farm…

The Jays farm system has largely been crippled by their own GM.  Riccardi has had a very conservative approach to the draft and often selects college players, which is okay, but often times the result will be players with much lower ceilings.  To add further insult to injury, many potential impact starters were traded for veteran help and salaries.  The result is a lot of players that are nice role players, but almost no superstar quality talent.

• Ricky Romero (LHP) – This was one the more odd picks in the 2005 draft, as he was taken 6 over Troy Tulowitzki, who would look really good in Toronto.  Anyhow, Romero is barely going to be entering Double A, but going back to his draft status, his stuff didn’t justify the pick, as his fastball clocks in from 88-92 and his changeup is excellent, but his lack of an out pick creates problems for him and it’s awfully hard to be successful with just two pitches. 
• Curtis Thigpen (C) – A second round pick in 2004, Thigpen is a solid catcher with great plate discipline and some gap power.  He calls a great game and blocks pitches well.  The problem is that he won’t become much of a home run hitter and will hit late in the lineup.  In essence, he’ll be like the guy he’ll eventually replace, Gregg Zaun.
• Kyle Yates (RHP) – Yates is a smaller pitcher with average stuff that lives and dies by his curve.  His fastball is benign at 88 to 90 mph and he’s got a bit of durability issues.  Still, he may be usable as a fifth starter/swingman at some point.
• Josh Towers (RHP) – Towers is a command and control guy that has below average stuff.  He was destroyed throughout 2006.  He’ll be in the minors again where the Jays hope he can rediscover his command. 
• Casey Janssen (RHP) – Janssen is highly similar to Towers, though Janssen has a better arsenal, with another low fastball, but he’s got a slider, a change-up and a curveball that he throws very well and in turn induces a lot of groundballs. 

In Conclusion

This team will definitely mash, as Glaus, Wells and Thomas are all power bats that will certainly reign terror on opposing pitchers.  However, this rotation is far from solid and they are largely depending on unproven youngsters and chancy veterans to back up the rotation behind Halladay and Burnett.  With little prospect depth in the minors and the Wild Card likely coming out of the Central again this year, the Jays are almost certainly not going to make the playoffs, though they will compete and could finish as high as second.  I have them taking a slight step back to third this year, though if Boston continues to operate with that rather lackluster offense, they could finish higher.

Final Standings:  Third in The American League East.