Well, originally meant for Friday Morning Closer (obviously that didn't happen) I thought I'd share some of the stuff I came up with. Afterall, it would just go to waste if no one checked it out.
A Retrospective
With all of the options that are being picked up, inlcuding those that come to the chargin of the athlete (I'm talking to you, Gary Sheffield), you have got to look back at 2005's free agency and admit, those deals are pretty great now.
How stupid do the Red Sox look now that they thought that Johnny Damon wasn't worth 4 years, $52 million, especially when they'll likely have to enter the Gary Matthews Jr. Sweepstakes and have to overpay for the Rangers' centerfielder. The Texas Rangers were thought to have been nuts in signing Kevin Millwood for 5 years, $60 million. Now Millwood is going to be a bargain now, especially at a time the Rangers are going to have to jump into the free agent market again.
As is the Toronto Blue Jays "overpaying" for closer B.J. Ryan. Now it's viewed to be one of the most important signings in the off-season, especially in a season where the closers market is viewed to be extremely weak, with the names of Eric Gage and Kerry Wood being the most marquee names on the roster.
The point I'm making is that several teams last season took the initiative to gamble on free agent prices rising. WIth the luxury tax rising and revenue doing the same, we may look at the free agent class of 2005 with envy in a few years, as these teams enjoy the services of these cheaper players for years to come.
In The Long Run, Liriano Should Have Taken The Surgery
Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano left the team's facility in Fort Myers, Florida, apparently frustrated with his lack of progress in his attempt to get healthy enough to be able to pitch in winter ball. Liriano, 23, went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA during the season and was considered a frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year award before the injury. After struggling through an Aug. 7 start against Detroit, he left the game because of elbow soreness. A brief stint in rehab followed, and Liriano returned to the mound Sept. 13 against the A's. He cruised through the first two innings and appeared to be back to form before once again leaving the game early with elbow pain and was shut down for the season. He was diagnosed with a mild sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament, an injury team doctors had hoped would clear itself up through rest and rehabilitation.
The problem is that this injury is starting to resemble the early symptoms of a possible ligament tear, and would require Tommy John Surgery. The Twins were hoping that it would not come to that, as seen from a rotation that fielded two rookies, one retiring pitcher, and one inconsistent one behind Johan Santana. But maybe in the long run it would be the best. Paul Byrd of the Cleveland Indians said that he suffered a similar condition for years until he finally decided to undergo the procedure, which he credits for reviving his career. Maybe it’s time that Liriano sat down with the team, tell them of his intentions to have the procedure done, and explain that this way would be the easiest way for both parties. Liriano would get his career back on track and the Twins would benefit from a healthy Liriano the next year, rather than see him waste another year and have to have the surgery later.
Seattle Is Under The Gun
With All-Star center fielder Ichiro Suzuki entering the final season of his contract in 2007, questions abound concerning his long-term prospects with the team. Suzuki has said that he would not seek a contract extension, though he would listen if the Mariners offered one. However, reports have been coming out of Seattle that Suzuki is becoming increasingly frustrated with the Mariners’ lack of competitiveness and will take this year to evaluate how close the Mariners are to competing. If he thinks they are on the verge of returning to their winning ways, Ichiro will stick around. If no, Suzuki will test the market, where as a centerfielder and a leadoff man, he’ll earn a king’s ransom.
Seattle has the makings o####ood bullpen and the infield is set with Johjima, Sexton, Lopez, Betancourt and Beltre and some promise on the outfield corners. The problem is pitching and the DH, and neither will come cheap for the Mariners. Which leaves the Mariners in an odd position. They could try and splurge, but free agency is a crapshoot and the market is going to be nuts this off-season, with lots of teams expected to splurge on a pitching class that is dubious at best. Seattle looks like their attempting to build a young team that can contend for the long haul, and not just the near future. And keep in mind that Ichiro is now 33 and has maybe three years of elite play before he hits his decline stage. At the very least, the Mariners are two years from becoming serious contenders in the division (sorry sleepless, if you’re reading this, but it’s true).
To be blunt, the Mariners need to sit down and discuss where Ichiro fits into the grand scheme of things. If they feel that Ichiro can contribute something in the grand scheme of things, then by all means, make every effort to re-sign him. But if the Mariners feel that Suzuki would have more value leaving Seattle, then they should make every effort to trade him in a market that, without a clear cut star defensive centerfielder, would give them the most #### for their buck.
Free Agency Rumblings And Grumblings
· If the Mets lose the bidding for Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Mets are expected to be heavy players for Mark Mulder and Ted Lilly, two former Oakland teammates that could benefit from being reunited with former Oakland and Current Mets Pitching Coach Rick Peterson. Many blame Mulder’s injuries and inconsistency that have hampered Mulder since he was traded to St. Louis to the fact that he was no longer being tutored by Peterson. Lilly has fared better, but wasn’t nearly what he was with Oakland.
· Despite the fact that Julio Lugo is coveting the Mets second base job, the Mets are internally discussing Giants 2nd Baseman Ray Durham instead. He won't come cheap, as the Mets would have to bid against the Dodgers and the Giants for his services, but many in the Mets love Durham’s skills as well as his work ethic, plus the fact that he has none of the baggage of Julio Lugo, who was less than thrilled with his time with the Dodgers and has a history of spousal abuse.
· Don’t believe the hype that the Cubs will center a trade with the Yankees around Mark Prior and Alex Rodriguez. Though Prior was a former Number One pick for the Yankees that they failed to sign, this deal would be a certified bust for the Yankees as Prior can’t be relied on to stay healthy. Any deal with the Yankees for Rodriguez would have to be centered around Carlos Zambrano or no deal at all.
· Texas Rangers Utility Starter Mark DeRosa could remain in Texas and still play alongside Hank Blalock in the lineup. There has been some talk that maybe DeRosa could become the regular starting third baseman with Blalock being moved to the Designated Hitter role permanently.
Not sure you can adequately judge a multi-year contract after one season, whether good or bad. Sure, the Red Sox look bad now for not resigning Damon, but the question remains how well he will perform in the last three years of his deal.
Look at it this way: Boston also refused to give Pedro Martinez the deal he was looking for after the 2004 season. He had a great 2005, but his career might now be over due to injuries. In retrospect, was that a great deal for the Sox to avoid? Absolutely.
Great post here. Lots of stuff to think about, especially the Ichiro possibilities.
I still think Johnny Damon isn't worth that much...but you make a good point. If you get the guy you want, and he helps you win...then "overpaying" is really irrelevant. Unless you're the Pirates, where every single penny counts.
I hate to see someone jeopardize their career the way Liriano has. Pitchers have very little room for error when it comes to health. One bad decision can end a pitcher's career. He's too good to gamble with.
I think any team would be lucky to have Ichiro, and I think the Mariners will be building something solid in the next couple of years. I think he fits nicely into their plans, but he may not feel the same.
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
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