A rumor appeared earlier this week that Vernon Wells had told Blue Jays' management that he had no intention of signing a contract extension to stay in Toronto. J.P. Ricciardi went on the offensive, calling the origin of the rumor, Keith Law, an ####, though at this point of the season, Ricciardi would do better trying to avoid a meltdown in Canada, especially after the ugly incident with Ted Lilly. But, all that aside, the Jays would do well in trading Wells. He has faced public criticism from J.P. Ricciardi in terms of performance at times, despite the fact that Wells has put up MVP caliber numbers this year. Plus, it’s never a good sign when said player hasn’t made much of an attempt to re-sing with a team before free agency, indicating the lack of interest or the fact that he may be a Scott Boras client (keep an eye on this situation, as Boras is notorious for stealing clients before free agency.)
Wells has one year remaining on the five-year deal he signed in spring training of 2003 and will earn just $5.6 million in 2006, after which he'll be eligible for free agency. He’ll be 29. With centerfielders having high prices lately (it’s expected that Wells could receive a similar contract to that of Carlos Beltran), the Blue Jays have almost no shot on keeping him, thanks to the fact that the Blue Jays will experience a salary crunch in 2008, when the salaries of A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, B.J. Ryan, and Troy Glaus all start escalating. And this is after the Jays made the trades of Scott Schoeneweis (to Cincinnati) and Eric Hinske (to Boston), saving a whopping $5 million (yes, that’s sarcasm.)
If the Jays are willing to go for it all next season and go guns blazing for possibly their only chance to contend for a World Series, then they should go for it and play next season with Wells. They’ll receive two first round draft picks if he signs elsewhere, which is more than they got when Carlos Delgado signed with the Marlins.
As for who Wells could sign with, there isn’t exactly a shortage of teams that he can go to. Wells is a solid middle of the order threat who plays some mean defense.
There will be no shortage of teams interested in Wells, a middle-of-the-order bat and plus defensive center fielder who'll hit the market in the middle of his offensive peak. Texas and Houston are likely to have interest because they might be able to sign him to an extension before he hits free agency, and neither team has a solid incumbent in center fielder. Here is a list of the teams in the order that will pursue Wells, if he’s placed on the block.
Texas Rangers – Wells is from Arlington and is good friends with Ranger shortstop Michael Young. The two have desired to be on the same team for some time and with Young not going anywhere (Texas is going to give him the large contract he deserves) Texas is the best place for him. Texas is unlikely to sign Gary Matthews Jr., who is peaking just when free agency is looming, and is far from a proven talent. Carlos Lee would like to remain a Ranger, but the Rangers have a contingency plan by sticking Nelson Cruz into right field and moving Mark DeRosa to left field. Wells makes a lot of sense to the Rangers, but if Toronto insists on gutting the Rangers in terms of pitching, Texas will pass on a deal.
Houston Astros – Houston could use some more offense, and have the pitching prospects to send to Toronto for Wells. However, the Astros have several needs to fill in terms of offense. Morgan Ensberg needs to be brought back to his old self and the Astros have options in the outfield that could be used. Luke Scott has impressed many and top prospect Hunter Pence is also another option to use as well. Toss in Chris Burke, Willy Taveras, and Jason Lane and the Astros could cobble together a pretty nice little outfield. And that’s not including Aubrey Huff, who will probably be re-signed. If anything, the Astros need more offense out of the catching and shortstop position, though Adam Everett’s defense in a way makes up for the lack of hitting.
Los Angeles Dodgers – I could see this happening since the Dodgers have enough talent in the farm system to make a deal for Wells. It would definitely rank as one of the most powerful outfields in the National League and the Dodgers could part with some prospects. But I’m not sure what arts could be swapped in terms of pitching, which is what the Jays need.
Los Angeles Angels – Juan Rivera is a good bench player that’s experiencing a hot year and Darin Erstad, Chone Figgins, and Garret Anderson are not or no longer impact players. The Angels make a lot of sense in that Wells gives the Angels a big bat to hit behind Vlad Guerrero, but any deal would requite the Angels to give up Ervin Santana and possibly top shortstop prospect Erick Aybar, plus another minor leaguer. GM Bill Stoneman showed no desire to make a deal for another pair of impact players, Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada. It’s likely that he’ll object to the price the Jays will ask for.
Seattle Mariners – Could make a play, but the pieces don’t line up for well enough for them to make a deal. The Mariners at the moment have a pair of centerfielders that they could plug and play, with Jeremy Reed and Adam Jones, both of which are young and could be serviceable. Plus, the Mariners I think are more likely to pursue another workhorse pitcher that can eat innings long enough for the bullpen to come in.
Boston Red Sox – Has the money to give Wells a lucrative extension and Wells is similar to a player the Red Sox pursued in the off-season, Andruw Jones. However, there isn’t enough pitching options to send back to Boston to make things work, plus I doubt that the Jays would be willing to ship Wells within the division, where they would see him 19 times a year.
St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals would get Wells, who would more than replace Jim Edmond’s in center and they have the money to do it. However, the Cardinals have many other needs in the off-season. Almost the entire rotation is entering free agency, with only Carpenter and Anthony Reyes returning. The Cardinals don’t have any ready talent to plug in the rotation, plus the offense in St. Louis is lacking in many other areas, namely catcher, Left AND Right field as well as second base. The Cardinals have to solve these other problems before trying to pursue Wells, who is a luxury.
Colorado Rockies – A team that would be awesome if they brought in Wells. The Rockies had been shopping around for a centerfielder at the deadline. If the Rockies could land Wells, not only would they have a largely improved outfield defense with Wells in center and Holliday in left, but they would have one of the strongest middle of the lineup threats with Holliday, Wells, and Helton batting 3, 4 & 5. The Rockies could do it if they’re willing to spend some smart money for once, as well as trade some of their more expendable prospects. But again, the Rockies also would need to send back one of their better starters, which would kill any deal. In all honesty, I think the Rockies would pass and go after an improvement at shortstop. Julio Lugo would be a nice fit.
As you can see, there are several good fits for Wells in baseball. But, depending on Toronto’s demands, a trade could get killed with all of the above teams. As far as who could be the favorites, it would be the Texas teams followed by the Los Angeles Teams.
Buying Barry – Part Two
The other day, I went down the list of teams that will likely be going after Barry Zito. I went through the league, eliminating the teams that I thought had no chance, and whittles the list down to five. Here’s the final detailed analysis of who will sign Barry, why, and why the team may not get him.
Los Angeles (NL) – Zito is from the LA area and with his work in music could decide to settle in LA, where he would not only be returning to his hometown, but would also be close to numerous record companies in his side business. Zito would fit in great in that lineup, providing some diversity to a lineup that has Brad Penny and Derek Lowe. He also wouldn’t have to have the pressure of being an ace. Plus, in that ballpark, Zito could be masterful and possibly become a Cy Young contender once again. But, with large commitments already given to Penny and Lowe, plus several arms in the farm system needing a chance, LA might be priced out of range
Chicago (NL) – The Cubs need some pitching, but I'm wondering if they'll make the jump for Zito. He's going to be expensive and the Cubs seem to be looking toward signing Juan Pierre long term. The Cubs do have the money, with Wood's and Maddux's large contracts off the books, but I don't think Zito has pitched at Wrigley. How well would he do with all those funky wind currents that inhabit the area?
Boston - Boston needs a lot of help in terms of the rotation. Schilling has only one year left. Beckett has been a disaster this year. Lester isn't ready and Papelbon isn't due to become a starter for at least another year. Zito could help be an option, but it should be noted that Fenway isn't very kind to lefty pitchers, which Lester has found out rather painfully.
Texas - Zito has always done well in Texas and would form a solid one-two punch with him and Millwood, plus the possibility of Padilla and Eaton in the mix. However, Zito has never let a draft day insult from Texas, who refused to give him an extra $50,000 on his signing bonus, go. Plus, he has little interest in pitching in Texas. Thus, despite
New York (NL) - Zito's old pitching coach is with the Mets and the Mets certainly will have the money to go after. There is a definate need here for Zito, as the Mets have little to count on in their rotaiton aside from Pedro Martinez and his gimpy leg and the ageless Tom Glavine, who seems to be battling injuries back just long enough to reach 300 wins. With only Mike Pelfrey in the system and the rather unremarkable Alay Soler, Zito would fare well here, especially in a pitchers park. I think the Mets will ultimately lose out to the next team, but will make them pay dearly for it.
New York (AL) - Ultimately, I do think that the Yankees will win over Zito, as they not only have a pair of former teammates in Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi to help their cause, but they'll also have a nice tidy amount of cash to go to work with. They'll have Mussina's large contract off the books and they'll also be losing the Randy Johnson contract after next year as well, along with Gary Sheffield's as well. Hence, they could give Zito a rather vanilla starting amount before kicking in his larger money after Johnson is gone. Do I like the fact that Zito would be in New York. No. But I suppose it was inevitable.
Canseco Watch!!!!
In other Canseco Related News, Nine Yards Entertainment has optioned the rights to produce a film version of his book "Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits and How Baseball Got Big". Canseco will be listed as a producer on the film.
Kipp Marcus, who was last seen as an extra on the movie Jason Goes To Hell, has been hired to adapt the book. Former Saved By The Bell Star Mario Lopez is rumored to be the favorite to play Canseco himself.
Does this movie sound like a train wreck waiting to happen? Hell yes. Will I see it?
i mentioned on the espn.com/brewers message board about the idea of wells being traded to texas....they thought i was crazy.
then again, some of them were coming up with trade proposals between the brewers and jays to acquire wells, and sign him to a long term extension.....some of the brewers players mentioned in the proposals included: j.j. hardy, tony gwynn jr., brady clark, dana eveland and ben hendrickson for wells and a couple low-minor leaguers. gwynn and clark are both CF's, hardy is a SS, and eveland and hendrickson are pitchers, L and R handers, respectively.
another proposal was: kevin mench, clark, zach jackson (rhp) hardy, and hendrickson for wells and 2 players to be named (A ball or lower).
one fan actually presented those ideas on the jays message board, and got laughed at.
mario lopez sounds like a good choice to play canseco...neither one has had a great career in their respective professions.
yankees + tons of cash = welcome aboard mr. zito. i'm putting my life savings on it (both george washingtons)
I'm a long time Texas Rangers fan who has come to love baseball as a whole. I recently began this blog as a way for me to showcase my opinions, provide some analysis, and hopefully entertain those who happen to stumble upon my little soapbox online. I'll toss in an NFL, College, or NBA nugget every now and then. Enjoy the posts everyone, and yes, getting a little love in a Deadspin post was probably the highlight of the year, blogwise.
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