The Next Mr. 3000

Because we as baseball fans are all wild about milestones, here is a list of one of the hardest milestones to achieve in baseball, 3000 hits.  Looking at the field and the list of the current hit leaders in baseball, here are the likeliest candidates of players that have a shot at the milestone.

Craig Biggio

Current Number: 2867

The leader of the pack, Biggio will likely play one more year with the Astros, and should reach this milestone by next year, unless he has a tremendous year.

Chances:  He’s A Lock.

Barry Bonds

Current Number: 2780

Barry would love to make the 500/3000 club as he’s a stat junkie.  Bonds won’t hit 3000 hits this year, but if he decides to return next year as a Designated Hitter, Bonds should be able to make the club unless his body finally gives out.

Chances:  Excellent, if he returns next year.

Derek Jeter

Current Number:  2022

Jeter has years ahead of him and has reached the milestone near the age of 32.  Provided that Jeter doesn’t suffer any lasting injury and maintains a relatively good production number, he should hit number 3000 by age 39.

Chances:  Excellent

Alex Rodriguez

Current Number:  1973

A-Rod will crack the 2000 mark at a younger age than Jeter.  Rodriguez remains one of the most productive players in history and provided that he doesn’t break down or goes through a Chuck Knoblauch-like meltdown, he should crack 3000 hits around the same time as Jeter.  He’s also going to be the next member of the elite 500/3000 club.

Chances:  Excellent

Edgar Renteria

Current Number:  1672

Renteria is in his early thirties and still has a few good years left ahead of him.  If Renteria continues to tear it up and continues to stay healthy, he’ll hit this milestone.  He’ll still need to eventually make a position change.  On a side note, Renteria at the moment is a borderline hall of famer and will probably need to join the 3000 club to get in.

Chances:  Good

Ivan Rodriguez

Current Number:  2266

Pudge still can hit, as he’s proving, but he’s losing power.  Still, Rodriguez can be a very good player for a few more years if he switches from catching to DH.  If he’s able to move, he’s got a shot.

Chances:  Good

Vlad Guerrero

Current Number:  1666

Vlad just turned 30, so he’s going to be around for several more years.  If he manages to stay healthy and keep a steady stream of production, I don’t doubt that we’ll see Vlad reaching this milestone by the time he hits 42 or so.

Chances:  Good

Manny Ramirez

Current Number: 1987

Manny is 34, but he’s getting close to achieving career hit 2000 this year.  Manny usually averages around 160 hits per season and has always been a constant force at the plate.  Though he’s likely to begin breaking down this year because of age, Manny could go to another AL club to serve as a DH.  Manny will come close and depending on how his body holds up, he could reach it.  My diagnosis:  he just misses it.

Chances:  Fair

Ken Griffey Jr.

Current Number: 2350

Junior still needs to keep off the disabled list, though this time he actually returned from it.  However, Griffey still has a few good years ahead of him if he signs as a Designated Hitter whenever his contract with the Reds ends. 

Chances:  Fair

Julio Franco

Current Number: 2537

Franco is a physical marvel at his age.  He certainly could play everyday for some team if he got the shot, but because he’s now a bench player, Franco will likely never get to 3000.  Still, he’s got good enough numbers and was a solid enough player both stateside, in Mexico, and in Japan, that he’s going to be in the Hall of Fame someday. 

Chances:  Slim

Miguel Tejada

Current Number: 163

Tejada just turned 30 this year and thus far continues to tear things up at the plate.  But while Tejada remains a constant force at the plate, I’m wondering how the injuries that he’s fought through to keep up his consecutive game streak will affect his body as he ages.  I’m not sure that Tejada will hit the milestone unless he eventually begins to DH. 

Chances:  Slim

Johnny Damon

Current Number: 1870

Damon is a special case.  He’s 32 and has always managed near 180 hits for his career.  However, Damon’s hard nosed, sel####estructive type of play in centerfield is likely going to cost this milestone, and possibly, a Hall of Fame ending to his career.

Chances:  Won’t Make It