Why He’s On The Block:Although White Sox GM Kenny Williams considers Mark Buehrle a "core player,'' talks about a long-term contract have yet to begin.Either Williams doesn't feel the time is right or doesn't feel Buehrle is a realistic investment possibility because of the pitcher's St. Louis ties.The lefty has expressed a desire to pitch for his hometown Cardinals in the future.The Sox have a $9.5 million option for next season, but Buehrle is all for getting something longer done.
Negotiable:Not really.It depends how eager Williams wants Buehrle gone.If the Cards are interested and Williams is really getting sick of Buehrle, he could package him for bullpen help, as they already have a fifth starter in Brandon McCarthy.
What He Offers:Here’s what Buehrle offers:
·Plus:Innings eater.
·Plus:Multiple pitch pitcher.
·Plus:Keeps walks under control.
·Plus:Strong command.
·Minus:Gives up the long ball way too much.
·Minus:Doesn’t have really great strikeout rates.
·Minus: His workload could result in more wear on his arm than necessary.
He Stay Or Will He Go:50%-50% on him staying in Chicago this season, about the same odds on him remaining in Chicago next season, depending on how well Brandon McCarthy does this season.But, if Williams decides that the White Sox really need bullpen depth to be able to successfully make their title defense, here’s where he could end up:
·St. Louis Cardinals– 55%.Hmmm. Sticking with Buehrle’s possible desire to head to St. Louis, St. Louis would be high on the list.However, the Cards have neither bullpen help to send to the White Sox, not will they be willing to push payroll above $100 million.Furthermore, St. Louis would then have FIVE pitchers who are in their free agency year, which would not work whatsoever.Unless St. Louis is able to spin off one of their starters in a separate deal, there is really no chance on the Cards getting Buerhle.Not that starting pitching is a weakness for them anyway.
·Texas Rangers – 40%. There was talk about Buehrle being traded to the Rangers during the off-season, but talks fell through because Williams demanded too much.Looking at a deal, Buehrle would add another left hander to the rotation, giving the Rangers a solid staff of Millwood, Buehrle, Padilla, Loe and Koronka.The Rangers could put together a package of starter Adam Eaton, reliever Fabio Castro, and pitching prospect Andres Gallaraga or starter John Rheinecker to send back.Eaton would be able to take over the fifth spot in the rotation and Rheinecker and Castro would be able to provide relief.However, the Rangers would want to meet with Buehrle first to try and negotiate a contract extension before pulling the trigger on such a trade.Williams won’t allow it, killing the deal.
·New York Mets – 5%.Again, the Mets could use Buerhle to be their middle of the rotation starter, or even possibly supplant Glavine as the number two and move him down to the three spot.But the only trade chip that could be offered is Lastings Milledge and maybe Philip Humber, two of the top prospects in their organization.The Mets will pass.
End Result – Will remain with the White Sox.He’s such an important part of that rotation, it’s likely he’ll be signed long term. Which means trouble for Brandon McCarthy.
Interesting thoughts. This is a very tough situation to analyze because I don't think the White Sox will be willing to trade any of their top five starters without getting something really good in return. Plus if McCarthy struggles, there's no way any of these guys would be traded.
100% chance he'll finish the season with the White Sox, 100% chance he'll be back next year. After that, anything can happen. I think there is about a 75% chance he will sign long term with the Sox in either 2006 or 2007.
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