With the NBA Finals beginning tonight, most of the talking heads on all the major networks are making thier predictions on who is going to win the series and how many games it is going to take.
But I am having a problem...I have no idea who has the edge in the series. This finals is the biggest pick'em series I have seen in any sport for a long time.
I am going to attempt to break it down, but I may tear my hair out before I am finished. Maybe if I get my thoughts down on paper, my pick will be revealed.
Boston Celtics
Positives: Three simple words, "Boston Three Party". Paul Pierce is Paul Pierce, KG is KG, and Ray Allen has finally joined the party and has reverted to his old self. We have an emerging star in Rajon Rondo who has turned into a decent point guard, and you are getting contributions from the bench with Kendrick Perkins and James Posey and the rest of the Celtics bench will shine at home.
Also Doc Rivers is a good coach who has gotten the most out of his players over the entire season and brought them from basement dwellers to penthouse sellers. Most of that is because of the Big Three, but Rivers had to find a room big enough for the egos that come along with them. They also have homecourt advantage which has been such a big thing in the NBA playoffs this year.
Negatives: Who is going to cover Kobe Bryant? Who is going to make sure that Kobe doesn't go off for 50 in every game in the series? Will the real Ray Allen stick around for an entire series?
Just a few questions, but the same goes for the Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
Positives: Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. Since the Memphis Grizzlies "traded" Gasol to the Lakers for a rack of basketballs or Kwame Brown, whichever has more value, the Lakers have been excellent and been largely unstoppable. I started watching more West basketball with the Lakers and all the other good teams out West. Lamar Odom has finally had his coming out party, since he hasn't been forced into a role he could not excell at. He can finally just play his game.
Also the rest of the Laker have been playing excellent basketball with Derek Fisher leading the way. Then they have one fo the greatest coaches in NBA history, the Zen master Phil Jackson, who is arguably a top three coach in NBA history.
Negatives: Who is going to cover Kevin Garnett? Does Gasol have the strength to consistently #### with Garnett for what I believe will be a long series? Finally, in hearing that Radmanovic will be covering Pierce, that made me cringe, Pierce might go off for a ton of points.
Well, as good as I tried, this Finals is still as clear as mud.
But I think that I will say the Lakers in seven, with the home team winning every home game except for the deciding game.
This series looks like it could be a really fun one to watch, and its about time.
I agree that it is hard to get your mind around this series. On paper these two teams are pretty evenly matched, like the Spurs and Pistons were in 2005. And that series came down to the last shot in game 7. Hopefully, this one will be as good.
As I have stated several times, the regular season does not give us much of a clue.
The Celtics had the best record, but played in the weaker Eastern conference. However, they pretty much dominated both the Eastern teams and the Western teams that they played.
The Lakers had the best record in the west but not by much. They did not dominate anyone, but they played in the much stronger Western Conference and won.
As far as the records go, the Celtics won a lot of games early in the season and let up some at the end. The Lakers started off sort of slowly and won a lot later on. So that is kind of a wash also.
And the face to face meetings don't mean much either. The Cavs beat the Spurs twice in the regular season and got swept in the playoffs.
In the playoffs thus far, the Lakers have done better, but does that really tell us anything? The Celtics appeared to gain confidence as they progressed through the series and seemed to get better.
Both teams showed some weaknesses. The Celtics struggled on the road, and had problems "putting tams away when they had them down."
The Lakers showed they could come back from big deficits, but they also showed that another team could get a big lead on them. If the Celtics can get the big lead, they may be able to hold on to it.
Both teams will be rested. The Lakers will not be facing an exhausted and injured team this time. They will be facing a rested, hungry team. The Celtics will also not be facing a beat up team.
As far as who wants it more. That is hard to say. On the Celtics you have three superstars who are facing the end of their career without a ring and this may be their best chance to ever have one. And who stops Garnett?
The Lakers have Kobe Bryant who wants more than anything to lead his team to a ring without Shaq. This could be his entire legacy as a player, because no matter how good you are, there is no guarantee you will get back to the finals. So who stops Kobe?
So who wins? My gut tells me the Lakers take it because of Kobe's ability, but at the same time, I would not be surprised if the Celtics hang in there to win.
I think if the Lakers win, they might do it in 5 or 6 games, but if the Celtics win, I think they will need all 7 games.
I also think the first two games as usual in these cases will tell the story. The Lakers really need to take on of the first two games. It is extremely hard to win those three games in a row, even at home. It seldom happens. The key word here being seldom.
The Celtics on the other hand need to win both of the first two games, because although it seldom happens that the other team wins all three of the middle games, it can happen and the Lakers are a team that just might can do it. The Celtics do not want to give them that opportunity. If they do lose one at home, it is goint to put a lot of pressure on them to win at least one in LA.
This is an intriguing matchup. Unlike last season where most people expected the Spurs to win, the question was just how many games would it take, in this series, it is not as clear cut. Most people expect the Lakers to win, but fewer are ready to bet the farm on it.
I'm not impressed with what I've seen from the Celtics in the playoffs. Lakers peaking at the right time...Phil will pull the right levers at the right time and make Doc look like a silly wabbit.
Lakers transformed after Gasol trade and will wear down Boston with depth and speed...only thing I worry about is Perkins inside...hopefully foul toubles will spell his early demise in the series.
In terms of real playoff and Finals' experience on either side there's not really much there.
On the Celtics there's only Cassell and Posey. On the Lakers they've got Bryant , Fisher and Walton. So much of this'll be predicated upon who makes the least mistakes and has the confidence to play at the highest levels of competency.
We could end up with this being series worth watching. Or we might as well watch either an infomercial or one of those Spanish telenovelas for good measure.
