The MVC has become a favorite target of everyone from Jay Bilas to Digger Phelps to the Alzheimer's stricken Billy Packer, and bizarre Jim Nantz.
I don't have a problem with the questions being raised, I just have a problem with the assertions that are more at home in a politicial campaign, and NO evidence.
Below are a few of the assessments of "gaming the system" as Bilas likes to call it written to those ripping on the MVC, and other mid-majors:
Kyle Macy predicted that he would receive a flood of MVC fan e-mails, so don't disappoint him. I didn't.
Dear Kyle:
By the time you've read this, the NCAA Tournament field will have been selected. You've got the MVC for 3 bids currently. Unlike most MVC fans, I'm not going to argue how many bids the MVC deserves, because it will be more than 3. I'm guessing 5 (Creighton left out).
I have three problems with the MVC's RPI is too high argument.
First, the "Scout" comment you quoted about the MVC buying games is absurd. Almost every major and mid-major team plays games at home against teams from the lower ranked conferences, and most at least 3 games a season. So why weren't other conferences being accused of "buying" games?
Second, there should be a home/road differential since the home team wins 2/3 of the time. Maybe .6/1.4 should be changed to .6/1.2, but a differential is accurate and fair.
Third, the reason the MVC's RPI is so high is mostly because the MVC won over 70% of its non-conference games, not because it, to use a popular term, "gamed" the system. But, how is this any different then what BCS conference teams have done for years?
NINE ACC teams had non-conference SOS's lower than Jay Bilas' favorite team, Drake. ACC teams racked up very impressive non-conference records by beating the cupcake of the week club, then racked up a good RPI by beating each other. How many BCS conference fans complain that most MVC teams, UNI the exception, haven't beaten anyone other than each other. Again, how is this different than many BCS conference teams?
I propose that the current 50% opponents winning %, 25% opponents opponents winning percentage be changed to 37.5% and 37.5% so that there is less of a reward for beating a conference opponent who played a weak non-conference schedule.
Kyle, if you disagree with these proposals, what RPI changes would you make?
Bilas' complaints about the MVC:
2. Is it just me, or does the Missouri Valley Conference appear to be getting a bit too much respect in the RPI rankings?
I believe that most mid-majors get too little respect, so a short-term swing the other way for the MVC is hardly something to get your underwear in a bunch over. However, claiming five teams as locks for the NCAA Tournament seems a bit over the top, and something doesn't feel right about where these teams fall in the RPI rankings.
As of Saturday, five MVC teams were ranked in the RPI Top 30. Wichita State (17), Northern Iowa (23), Southern Illinois (28), Missouri State (29) and Creighton (30) represented 20 percent of the best 30 teams in the country. Do you really believe that all of these teams are better than George Washington, Marquette, Kansas, Kentucky and Alabama?
Why are these teams ranked so high? One important reason is that they are good -- and they play good nonconference schedules and usually don't suffer bad losses. But another component has to be the road, and how road games are counted. Wichita State has played 13 road games, exactly half of its schedule going into Saturday's game against George Mason.
In my opinion, road games cannot be counted the same for every team that ventures away from home. It is far different to play on the road at Duke than it is to play at Drake. The MVC, with so many highly ranked teams, gives its teams a better opportunity to rack up quality wins than does the SEC or the Pac-10. Is a road win in the MVC comparable to a road win in the SEC?
The truth is, Kentucky got less of a #### in the ratings out of its win at South Carolina than George Mason got out of winning at Wichita State, because it was a top-25 win. Kentucky's win was only a top-50 win, and will not provide as big of a boost.
There has to be a better way to evaluate and rate wins and losses. Why can't we "Moneyball"-ize the RPI and assign a value to a game at the time it is played, and rate teams according to how good they are?
Jay Bilas complains that Wichita State had played half its schedule on the road. If we ask Mark Turgeon, I'll bet he would love to have all his tough non-conference games at Wichita.
Bilas does have a point that it is tougher to win at Duke than Drake, but the answer didn't address an Iowa situation where they're undefeated at home but 4-7 in road games. Would Iowa be weighted like Duke at Carver-Hawkeye even though they sure aren't Duke on the road, or in general. (Duke has only lost 1 road game, their only loss of the season at G-town).
Bilas then said "The MVC, with so many highly ranked teams, gives its teams a better opportunity to rack up quality wins than does the SEC or the Pac-10. Is a road win in the MVC comparable to a road win in the SEC?
The truth is, Kentucky got less of a #### in the ratings out of its win at South Carolina than George Mason got out of winning at Wichita State, because it was a top-25 win. Kentucky's win was only a top-50 win, and will not provide as big of a boost."
The first quoted paragraph is nonsensical. The MVC should be penalized because its teams composed a good non-conference record. WHAT? It's easy to beat a good team? Really. (Bilas didn't say this, but it's implied).Then regarding the road win comparison, is Bilas claiming that teams like Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia are world beaters and winning in Oxford is some great accomplishment compared to a win in Des Moines?
As far as the second quoted paragraph, well Jay Wichita State PROBABLY is better than South Carolina. WSU has only lost to Top 50 teams this season. South Carolina has lost to 3 teams between 101-200 in RPI, and is now 85th in RPI.
Bilas MAY have a point, but how he arrived at his conclusion defies logic.
And last, courtesy of panthernation.com,
Over the past 5 years that Packer and Nantz were talking about, here are the final at large bids by seed:
2005 UNI (11)--lost in 1st Round (0-1) Iowa (10)--lost in 1st Round (0-1) NC State (10)--Advanced to Sweet 16 (2-1) UAB (11)--Advanced to 2nd Round (1-1) UCLA (11)--Lost in 1st Round (0-1) St. Mary's (10)--Lost in 1st Round (0-1)
The final 3 major conference teams went 2-3, the non BCS conferences went 1-3. Not a huge difference.
2004 Richmond (11)--Lost in first round (0-1) Air Force (11)--Lost in first round (0-1) BYU (12)--Lost in first round (0-1) UTEP (13)--Lost in first round (0-1) South Carolina (10)--Lost in 1st round (0-1) Louisville (10)--Lost in first round (0-1).
Everybody sucked, BCS conferences 0-1, the others were 0-5.
2003 Butler (12)--Advanced to Sweet 16 (2-1) BYU (12)--Lost in 1st Round (0-1) Southern Illinois (11)--Lost in 1st Round (0-1) Arizona State (10)--Advanced to 2nd round (1-1) Auburn (10)--Advanced to Sweet 16 (2-1) Colorado (10)--Lost in 1st round (0-1) Alabama (10)--Lost in 1st round (0-1)
Auburn helped lead the BCS conferences to a 3-4 mark in the tournament for the final 4 at large canidates from the big conferences. Butler took the little guys to a 2-3 record.
2002 Southern Illinois (11)--Advanced to the Sweet 16 (2-1) Boston College (11)--Lost in first round (0-1) Utah (12)--Lost in first round (0-1) Missouri (12)--Advanced to Elite 8 (3-1) Wyoming (11)--Advanced to 2nd round (1-1) Pepperdine (10)--Lost in first round (0-1) Michigan State (10)--Lost in first round (0-1)
Missouri lead the BCS conferences to a 3-3 record, while the smaller conferences went 3-4.
2001 Oklahoma State (11)--Lost in round 1 (0-1) BYU (12)--Lost in first round (0-1) Xavier (11)--Lost in first round (0-1) Providence (10)--Lost in first round (0-1) Georgetown (10)--Advanced to Sweet 16 (2-1) Creighton (10)--Lost in first round (0-1)
2-3 for the Big Boys, 0-3 for the little guys.
What I have learned from all of this is that the final at large teams usually suck. Missouri made a nice run, and that is it. Fans, commentators and everybody else just needs to relax about these final bids. They really don't matter when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. For every Butler and Southern Illinois, you have a BYU that has gone 0-3 in their last 3 at large births. For every Missouri, you have an Iowa that gets pounded in the first round.
14 teams from the BCS conferences received the final bids, 18 from non BCS conferences.
* 5 of the 14 teams from BCS conferences won a game in the NCAA Tournament (35.7%).
* 4 of the 18 teams from non-BCS conferences won a game in the NCAA Tournament (22.2%).
We're still waiting to hear answers to these points. They can run, but they can't hide once they open the door.
No, it's not more political blogs, although I did enjoy SoCal's blog. I always enjoy debating political issues with folks outside of the academic or political world.
It's...
No, it's really
Missouri Valley Basketball time. Hey, hey, my mid-major can beat your BCS conference team. Just tell your BCS team's AD to have the balls to schedule them.
ESPN actually showed a MVC game on Saturday with WichitaState, trying hard to lose, finally prevailed in double OT at home at the Chuck against, now former co-leader, Southern Illinois 71-63.
Creighton also tried very hard to let a share of first place to slip away trailing at Drake by as much as 13 in the second half, but also prevailed at Des Moines over Drake 72-67 in OT.
Only Northern Iowa played well crushing IndianaState, who had just handed SIU their first home MVC loss in four years, 83-56. The game was quickly out of hand early in the second half with UNI giving their starters, who were used to averaging 36-39 minutes per game, a much-needed rest.
Tomorrow we'll see if UNI remains in the Top 25 polls after losing last Tuesday at Creighton. Luckily, for UNI, many of the teams around them in the polls also lost, and I think UNI will still be in at least one of the polls after they are released tomorrow.
At the beginning of conference play, I predicted UNI would nose out Wichita State for the regular season title, and I predicted a couple of weeks ago that Southern Illinois would not run away from the pack because of a difficult closing stretch, although I would never have predicted the Dogs would lose to Indiana State at Carbondale.
With three weeks left in the conference season, lets see who the Top 6 have left to play.
Northern Iowa has WichitaState and MissouriState at home this week, followed by their final regular season home game at IndianaState, their Bracket Buster game in Cedar Falls against Bucknell's Fighting Bison, at home against Bradley, and closing at SIU.
Prediction: UNI will probably be favored in all of their remaining games except at Carbondale. I'll predict a 4-1 MVC finish for the Panthers, and a Bracket Buster win on ESPN against Bucknell.
WichitaState has road games this week at UNI and IndianaState, followed by a home game against Creighton, a Bracket Buster game against George Mason, a road game at Drake, and a closing home game against IllinoisState.
Prediction: The Shockers have also found the road friendly this season only losing at Creighton on a last second shot last week, and at Southern Illinois. I'll predict the Shockers to close 3-2 in the MVC, and winning their Buster game over the Patriots.
Creighton has a road game at Evansville, followed by an important home game against SIU, followed by a road game against the Shockers, and at home in the Bracket Buster against Fresno State, then Indiana State, and a closing road game at Missouri State.
Prediction: The Jays are unbeaten at the QwestCenter this season, but has lost on the road at IllinoisState, Bradley, and then after their turnaround, at Southern Illinois. I'll predict a 3-2 MVC finish, and a home Buster win against the Tarks.
Southern Illinois, based on a favorable early schedule, jumped out to a 6-0 MVC record, but has now lost 4 of their last 7 including their 3 road games against the other first division teams. The Dogs host MissouriState, then have road games against Creighton and Bradley, a home Bracket Buster game against Louisiana Tech, a road game at Evansville, and then hosts UNI to close the season.
Prediction: Because of the Salukis' struggles on the road against the better MVC teams, although they almost won at UNI, I'll predict a 3-2 MVC finish and a Buster win over Tech.
MissouriState has a rough closing stretch playing at Southern Illinois, then UNI, hosts Evansville, has a Bracket Buster game at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a road game at IllinoisState, and a closing home game against Creighton.
Prediction: Stick a fork in them. The Bears are looking, at best a 2-3 MVC close, and a loss at Milwaukee.
Bradley has played the toughest part of its schedule, but has three road games remaining at IllinoisState and IndianaState, and a road game at UNI. The Braves also home games against Southern Illinois and Drake, and a Bracket Buster game against Tennessee Tech. For the Braves, who have won only one MVC road game against likely last place Evansville, but has only lost one home MVC game against Wichita State, they're looking at a 3-2 MVC finish, and a Buster win over Tech.
The final MVC standings should look like:
UNI 14-4, 25-5
Creighton 13-5, 20-7
WichitaState 13-5, 23-7
Southern Illinois 12-6, 20-9
Bradley 10-8, 17-10
MissouriState 10-8, 16-11
followed by Drake in 7th, IllinoisState and IndianaState tied for 8th, and Evansville last.
NCAA Bids:
There has been a discussion about how many MVC teams may get NCAA bids. Many are now predicting four. I think with SIU's RPI, and weak non-conference schedule, it will be 50-50 if the MVC receives 4 bids unless a team other than UNI, Creighton, and Wichita State win the MVC Tournament.
Yahoo is showing that 63% of those voting felt Ben didn't cross the goal line. Folks, if the ball crossed the FRONT of the goal line, that's a touchdown. It did, just barely, before the Seattle defender hit him and knocked him back. The ball doesn't have to clear the entire goal line.
This has been an exciting game, just not well played. Take away the big plays, and we would still be looking at a 7-6 game.
Texas A&M, from the land of Dubya, wants to sue the Seattle Seahawks over using the 12th Man phrase: Who Cares! We already know Dubya and his Texas inbreds are morons.
LeBron doesn't want to participate in the NBA Slam Dunk Contest: Who Cares! Is there a dunk we haven't seen.
Super Bowl Media Days: Who Cares! Although the NFL trying to injure players in a car accident is a new idea.
Can the Broncos "manage" TO: Who Cares! The Broncos can't make a Super Bowl with Jake Plummer anyway.
Brett Farve may retire: Who Cares! The Packers will be lucky to be an 8-8 team next season. Go home and fix the hurricane damage Brett.
NASCAR is about the start another season: Who Cares! Where are Richard Petty and David Pearson trying to beat the #### out of each other after a race. THAT was NASCAR, not femmes like Jeff Gordon.
Anna Benson taking one for the team many times with a group of umpires so her husband can win a game (Hey, the O's need all the help Anna can give them). PS: Anna, Fox wants to know if you can sell them the video for a new Fox reality show?
Hey, this is Fox where Fox News preaches right-wing politics pretending that it's news, yet AskMen.com's 99 most desirable women survey appears as a sports headline on Fox Sports. Explain these contradictions?
Okay, an Anna video would be interesting and informative ("The boys were wanting me to ask you Kris is Anna a moaner, or does she just lie there?", "Anna, have you found that men who use 'roids have smaller ####es?"), but can someone explain the AskMen.com survey? Is Fox Sports trying to become the site of choice for 12 year old boys?
Fox, if you're using sex to sell, you can do better than AskMen.com's survey. Just don't let Sean Hannity and Bill O' Reilly know about it.
A couple of days ago some #### named Jay from DC commented to Andy Katz, during his ESPN chat, that the Big 10 was overrated, and among other games, cited to Iowa's loss in OT at Northern Iowa.
Jay, depending on which RPI rating you want to look at, Northern Iowa is somewhere between 14th and 19th through Wednesday's games. The MVC is 5th in conference RPI, ahead of the Big 12, and Pac 10.
Jay might say, "So what UNI's played a weak schedule." Well, no they haven't. According to Ken Pomeroy http://www.kenpom.com/rpi.php, UNI has a Strength of Schedule ranking of 35, and a 5-2 record against Top 50 teams.
UNI's 5-2 mark against Top 50 teams includes road wins at LSU, who will probably win the SEC West, MissouriState, and WichitaState. Overall, UNI is 7-2 in road or neutral games this season.
If UNI were in a BCS conference, depending upon which BCS conference they were playing, would either be a middle of the road team, or if they were in the Big 12, Pac 10, or SEC West, a contender.
UNI probably has the most impressive MVC resume at this point, but the other first division MVC teams aren't exactly chopped liver either.
We're approaching the halfway mark of the conference season. At the start of the season, I picked Northern Iowa to edge out WichitaState for the regular season conference title, followed by MissouriState, Creighton, Bradley, Southern Illinois, IndianaState, Drake, and a battle between Evansville and IllinoisState for last. As I said in the blog, I didn't see a lot of difference between the teams I had listed 3rd through 7th.
Indiana State fell off the radar when it lost its leading scorer David Moss at the start of the MVC season.
My apologies to SIU, which is tied for first place with UNI, although SIU opened the season with a favorable schedule that had the Salukis at home for 4 of their first 6 MVC games, and their road games against IndianaState and Drake.
The Salukis three game road trip to Drake, UNI, and MissouriState has brought them back to the pack at 6-2 after losing in Springfield last night.
SIU's next two games are at home against IllinoisState and Creighton, followed by a road game at IllinoisState. Expect the Salukis to move to 9-2 in the MVC, but SIU will face a tough closing stretch with only a road game against Evansville the only, near, certain win.
Northern Iowa is also 6-2, but has played a tougher stretch than SIU to date, and won, at WichitaState and MissouriState.
WichitaState is also at 6-2 after tonight's win at Evansville. WSU still has 3 tough road games remaining at MissouriState, UNI, and Creighton.
The shocker in this group (no offense WSU fans), is 6-2 Creighton, who after losing G Nate Funk, a preseason MVC 1st teamer, and starting the season 1-2 has won 5 straight including handing UNI its only home loss of the season. However, Creighton's schedule, like SIU, is about to become tougher having road games at SIU, MissouriState, and WSU remaining. Creighton also has home games remaining with SIU, UNI, and MissouriState.
In 5th place is MissouriState at 5-3. However, the Bears have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule with two tough road games back to back at SIU and UNI, and home games with Creighton and WichitaState remaining.
I thought Bradley would also contend, but the Braves are only 3-5. However, Bradley, like MissouriState, has the fewest remaining games against the MVC teams that are currently 1st through 5th.
If UNI can continue to play reasonably well, as they have since Erik Crawford broke his foot in UNI's loss to Creighton, UNI will nose out Wichita State, SIU, and Missouri State for the regular season title, and Creighton will finish 5th. I know I shouldn't doubt what the Blue Jays have amazingly done since Funk's injury, but they have a tough schedule to close out the season, and a weaker perimeter game than the other contenders without Funk.
I'll pick UNI to finish with a 13-5 MVC record, losing a game they wouldn't have with Crawford, SIU, MissouriState, and WichitaState 12-6, and Creighton 11-7.
Last, to answer the blog's question we are starting to see Bracketogist's predict four MVC bids. I thought for a long-time that four was unrealistic. However, if the MVC has four teams with 20+ regular season wins who avoid bad losses by winning at Evansville Illinois State, Indiana State, and some of the other conferences continue to have only a few teams that separate from the pack in their conference, the MVC will get its four bids.
Bulls fan Michael Axelrod (left) stands with his attorney Jay Paul Deratany on Thursday in Chicago. (Brian Kersey / Associated Press)
Court TV’s Catherine Crier: Let’s go to the courthouse. I think they’re about to begin.
Clerk: Superior Court is now in session, the Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton presiding.
Judge Clinton: You may be seated. Today, we’ll begin proceedings in the civil suit of Michael Axelrod versus Antonio and Kendra Davis. We can now begin opening arguments. Attorney for Mr. Axelrod, please proceed.
Axelrod Attorney: Judge Clinton, Johnnie Cochran for Mr. Axelrod.
Judge Clinton: Mr. Cochran, you’re dead.
Cochran: This is make-believe, just like your chances of winning the Presidency, so go with the flow.
Judge Clinton: Go ahead.
Cochran: Boys from powerful families know it’s a bummer to only get a hummer.
Monica Lewinsky: Bill was afraid I might get pregnant Johnnie, but it was a little too salty.
Kobe Bryant: That’s what I kept telling Katelyn. I’m doing you a favor ‘cuz it will be too salty, too salty.
Cochran: Boys from powerful families don’t do crack because it could mean the rack.
George W. Bush, with an unknown white powder on his brow, holding a Bible: Or the Presidency.
Jeb Bush: That’s what I did wrong.
Cochran: Boys from powerful families don’t have to use graft to avoid the draft.
Bill Clinton, #### Chaney, and Pat Robertson: You’re preaching to the choir, Johnnie. (Okay, Bill wasn’t from a powerful family, but go with it.)
Cochran: Boys from powerful families don’t maim when they have fame.
The Honorable Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts honorably passed out: (Silence).
Cochran: Boys from powerful families don’t abdicate just because they want to fornicate.
Prince Charles: You can say that again, Johnnie.
Barbara and Jenna Bush: Girls too Johnnie, girls too. (Jenna pulls up her t-shirt and shows the crowd some skin).
Dubya: We’re not royalty sweetie. I keep tellin’ ya being related to Grandpa had nothing to do with me being in the Texas Air National Guard, Managing Partner of the Rangers, Governor of Texas, or President.
Cochran: Boys from powerful families don’t…
Judge Clinton: Mr. Cochran is this going somewhere?
Cochran: My client’s innocent.
Judge Clinton: Thank you Mr. Cochran. Attorney for Mr. and Ms. Davis please proceed.
Davis’ Attorney: Judge Clinton, John Kerry for the Davis’. Once again, I want to tell the American people that, I voted for the Iraqi war after I voted against it because…
Antonio Davis: Judge, we’ve changed our minds. We want Cousin Vinny.
Joe Pesci, walking to the podium: It’s about time you don’t use that Frankenstein. Judge, I just got to say that punk’s sunk. (Looking at Cochran) See Cochran anyone can #### rhyme.
Judge Clinton: Mr. Pesci, please.
Pesci: Watch your #### Judge, and might I say a rather large one. (Robert DeNiro tapping a baseball bat on the floor).
Who knows if this will become must see TV. Court TV must be salivating. The Clintons’ and Jesse Jackson would be character witnesses for Axelrod, half the NBA will be character witnesses for the Davis’.
Right now, there are conflicting accounts of what happened. We’re being told that Axelrod was drunk, assaulting Kendra Davis, or Kendra Davis is a ####, who needs to trim her fingernails, beating up people.
Hopefully, the Bulls are able to find videotape that is showing us more than what we can see now.
Axelrod doesn’t appear drunk. One fan sitting nearby says Kendra Davis was hitting him too. Other fans say they didn’t see Kendra Davis hitting anyone, and Axelrod called her some names and told her to “shut the #### up and sit down.”
Kendra Davis has been involved in altercations with fans, and Latrell Sprewell (fill in your own joke here), before last night.
I know in these days of cable TV, the Internet, and blogs that everybody wants to weigh in with an opinion. I can wait.
PS: Is it me, or does Axelrod look like Jay Bilas' younger brother?
ESPN News is reporting that Marcus Vick was arrested by SuffolkCounty (Virginia) police for an incident last night brandishing firearms.
My question: Where is the Vick family at while Marcus is sel####estructing? Yes, Marcus is responsible for his own actions, but it’s clear he has significant problems, and can’t control himself.
