Here are my American League predictions for the upcoming season, just to get them up before the season starts. Since the National League doesn’t start until Sunday, those predictions will come later. A more detailed preview will be posted within the next week or so…

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox: Health and youth progression are the biggest questions, but the Beckett/Papelbon and Ortiz/Ramirez combinations are among the best in the game.

2. New York Yankees (Wild Card): The lineup is incredible and Chamberlain/Rivera is a great combination at the end of the game, but the starting pitching is questionable, especially with Wang’s inability to win the big game thus far in his career.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: The team has awesome pitching, a good lineup, and lots of young talent, but most of their key players have shaky health histories, which doesn’t bode well for a contending team.

4. Tampa Bay Rays: Awesome potential, but not enough to finish in the top three in the AL East. If the pitching develops, they could be tough, but most likely not for a couple of years.

5. Baltimore: If they trade Brian Roberts and then George Sherrill at the trading dead line, at least they’ll be in full rebuilding mode. There’s no middle ground with respect to rebuilding. The Orioles have blown it up, which is the right way to go.

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians: They might be the deepest team, although their closer is still shaky and Carmona will probably regress, it’s a much more complete team than people give them credit for. Remember, they were very dangerous in 2005, got hurt in 2006, and were a game away from the World Series in 2007.

2. Detroit Tigers: The lineup could be historic, but Verlander is the only sure thing on the pitching staff. Dontrelle Willis is more likely to be worse in the AL than to improve, Bonderman has been inconsistent, but could dominate, Kenny Rogers is old, and Nate Robertson is middle of the road. The bullpen is very weak at the back end and the team has very little in terms of trade chips in the minors.

3. Chicago White Sox: Swisher is a great addition and although Orlando Cabrera is overrated, he’ll fit well as a sparkplug under Ozzie Guillen. The pitching will be key, especially the bullpen, which was horrible last year; it should be better this year.

4. Minnesota Twins: With no Santana and Liriano still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins will probably struggle. Delmon Young joins Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer in a potent offensive core, but it won’t be enough. They’ll have to rely on a very good bullpen and hope for the young pitching to develop in order to have any chance.

5. Kansas City Royals: Meche and Bannister offer a decent front end of the rotation, although they’re more likely to be 2-3 or 3-4 on a championship team. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahan should all have good seasons this year.

AL West

1. Anaheim Angels: They’re the best of a flawed division, although if their young pitching develops, they’ll have a lot of depth. The Angels have no real shortstop, an injury-prone first basemen, and too many aging outfielders in Guerrero, Anderson, and even Matthews. Hunter is going to be overpaid, but he’s a huge upgrade in center over Matthews both offensively and defensively. Also, if Scot Shields is injured, a new setup man must emerge.

2. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners will not be a championship contender, unless they sign Barry Bonds. There are serious questions at DH (Vidro), 1B (Sexson), RF (Wilkerson), LF (Ibanez), 2B (Lopez), and SS (Betancourt). They weren’t an 88 win team based on their run differential last year and neither Bedard nor Hernandez has stayed healthy for a full season. Even if healthy, it won’t be enough.

3. Oakland Athletics: Billy Beane has to hope for a monster first half from Rich Harden so he can trade him and maybe Huston Street and Joe Blanton and continue his rebuilding process, which has drawn rave reviews so far. Otherwise, they could be an exciting team to watch develop, but that’s about it.

4. Texas Rangers: They’re strong up the middle with Young, Kinsler, and Hamilton, and Bradley could be a nice pickup if healthy. They really overpaid for Hamilton, giving up a good pitching prospect in Eldinson Volquez. Saltalamacchia should get the starting job so he can develop, but it looks like he’ll split time with Laird at best to start the season. The pitching staff won’t be pretty.

Playoffs

Red Sox over Angels: Again….

Indians over Yankees: Again…

Red Sox over Indians: Again…

AL Champions: Boston Red Sox: Again…

Potential swaps in playoffs: Tigers as wild card instead of Yankees

Potential surprise teams: Chicago, Oakland

Potential disappointments: Seattle, Toronto, Detroit

I have yet to hear of a Red Sox trade rumor that would make them a significantly better team. Adding Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye, Ty Wigginton, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will not make the team much better overall. Ignoring even the cost of acquiring one of these players in terms of players and prospects, you can only consider the marginal benefit of adding the player, not the player’s overall stats.

The marginal benefit of player added = performance of [player added – player replaced]. This formula applies however you want to measure performance, whether it be traditionally (like using home runs) or sabermetrically (like VORP), as I choose to do. For example, adding a Teixeira, who is on pace for 23 home runs, would add 8 home runs if he replaced Kevin Youkilis (projected 15 HR), but cost a home run if Youkilis slide over to third and Mike Lowell (projected 24 HR) was replaced.

There really haven’t been any outstanding trade rumors involving the Sox in the past few days, but a few new names have popped up, so I’ll analyze those deals (more to come as the rumors hopefully start to fly).

1) Red Sox trade Michael Bowden, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn

Dunn plays first base, Youkilis plays third base, and the Sox trade Lowell in a separate deal for prospects.

Verdict: No thanks. Dunn (projected 17.28 VORP remaining) would add almost two wins over Mike Lowell, but the asking price for Dunn is reportedly steep right now. If the price were to drop to something like Bowden and Moss/David Murphy, then I’d probably think about pulling the trigger. However, Dunn’s contract allows him to opt out after this year if he’s traded, and he only has one more year either way, so he could be a costly rental in terms of prospects surrendered.

Quick notes:

1) I completely agree with Nick Caffardo’s column on Wednesday in the Boston Globe about not looking at small sample sizes when deciding whether or not the Sox need to make a trade. Last week at this time, the Sox had lost 8 of 11 and the sky was falling. This week, they’ve won 6 of 7 and are unstoppable. I think Theo Esptein has to make some kind of move to ensure there aren’t any more downward trends like losing 8 of 11.

2) I’ve written about wanting to trade Wily Mo Pena because he isn’t a role player on a championship-caliber team, but games like last nights (2 doubles, a laser of a home run, 4 RBI), make me hope even more for a torn calf muscle or any season-ending injury just so the Sox can hold on to him.

3) I’d be really happy if they traded Kason Gabbard right now and wish he had pitched a lot better last night so that he could have maintained a little more traded value. I look at it this way: he’s never going to be more valuable in a trade than he is now. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who was on a roll, but eventually he’ll start to get hit. Yes, he’s a sinker-baller, but those types of pitchers are usually less consistent from season due to a high dependence on defensive help. He doesn’t project to be more than a fourth or fifth starter, so any reasonable offer for him should be enough incentive for the Sox to trade him.