Here are my American League predictions for the upcoming season, just to get them up before the season starts. Since the National League doesn’t start until Sunday, those predictions will come later. A more detailed preview will be posted within the next week or so…

 

AL East

 

1. Boston Red Sox: Health and youth progression are the biggest questions, but the Beckett/Papelbon and Ortiz/Ramirez combinations are among the best in the game.

2. New York Yankees (Wild Card): The lineup is incredible and Chamberlain/Rivera is a great combination at the end of the game, but the starting pitching is questionable, especially with Wang’s inability to win the big game thus far in his career.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: The team has awesome pitching, a good lineup, and lots of young talent, but most of their key players have shaky health histories, which doesn’t bode well for a contending team.

4. Tampa Bay Rays: Awesome potential, but not enough to finish in the top three in the AL East. If the pitching develops, they could be tough, but most likely not for a couple of years.

5. Baltimore: If they trade Brian Roberts and then George Sherrill at the trading dead line, at least they’ll be in full rebuilding mode. There’s no middle ground with respect to rebuilding. The Orioles have blown it up, which is the right way to go.

 

AL Central

 

1. Cleveland Indians: They might be the deepest team, although their closer is still shaky and Carmona will probably regress, it’s a much more complete team than people give them credit for. Remember, they were very dangerous in 2005, got hurt in 2006, and were a game away from the World Series in 2007.

2. Detroit Tigers: The lineup could be historic, but Verlander is the only sure thing on the pitching staff. Dontrelle Willis is more likely to be worse in the AL than to improve, Bonderman has been inconsistent, but could dominate, Kenny Rogers is old, and Nate Robertson is middle of the road. The bullpen is very weak at the back end and the team has very little in terms of trade chips in the minors.

3. Chicago White Sox: Swisher is a great addition and although Orlando Cabrera is overrated, he’ll fit well as a sparkplug under Ozzie Guillen. The pitching will be key, especially the bullpen, which was horrible last year; it should be better this year.

4. Minnesota Twins: With no Santana and Liriano still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins will probably struggle. Delmon Young joins Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer in a potent offensive core, but it won’t be enough. They’ll have to rely on a very good bullpen and hope for the young pitching to develop in order to have any chance.

5. Kansas City Royals: Meche and Bannister offer a decent front end of the rotation, although they’re more likely to be 2-3 or 3-4 on a championship team. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahan should all have good seasons this year.

 

AL West

 

1. Anaheim Angels: They’re the best of a flawed division, although if their young pitching develops, they’ll have a lot of depth. The Angels have no real shortstop, an injury-prone first basemen, and too many aging outfielders in Guerrero, Anderson, and even Matthews. Hunter is going to be overpaid, but he’s a huge upgrade in center over Matthews both offensively and defensively. Also, if Scot Shields is injured, a new setup man must emerge.

2. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners will not be a championship contender, unless they sign Barry Bonds. There are serious questions at DH (Vidro), 1B (Sexson), RF (Wilkerson), LF (Ibanez), 2B (Lopez), and SS (Betancourt). They weren’t an 88 win team based on their run differential last year and neither Bedard nor Hernandez has stayed healthy for a full season. Even if healthy, it won’t be enough.

3. Oakland Athletics: Billy Beane has to hope for a monster first half from Rich Harden so he can trade him and maybe Huston Street and Joe Blanton and continue his rebuilding process, which has drawn rave reviews so far. Otherwise, they could be an exciting team to watch develop, but that’s about it.

4. Texas Rangers: They’re strong up the middle with Young, Kinsler, and Hamilton, and Bradley could be a nice pickup if healthy. They really overpaid for Hamilton, giving up a good pitching prospect in Eldinson Volquez. Saltalamacchia should get the starting job so he can develop, but it looks like he’ll split time with Laird at best to start the season. The pitching staff won’t be pretty.

 

Playoffs

 

Red Sox over Angels: Again….

Indians over Yankees: Again…

Red Sox over Indians: Again…

 

 

AL Champions: Boston Red Sox: Again…

 

Potential swaps in playoffs: Tigers as wild card instead of Yankees

Potential surprise teams: Chicago, Oakland

Potential disappointments: Seattle, Toronto, Detroit

If the game is on the line and you’re a typical Red Sox fan, who do you want coming to the plate? David Ortiz. (Or if you're a typical Yankees fan, who don't you want coming up?) What about this season? Do you still feel that way? Should you?

When most Red Sox fans think of David Ortiz, they think of home runs, a big smile, and clutch, game-winning at-bats. In the past, such a description of Ortiz was very accurate, but 2007 has been a strange season for Ortiz. He’#### only 19 home runs after blasting a franchise record 54 last year, he’s seen his smile disappear at times because of a knee injury that might require surgery after the season and a sore shoulder he hurt flopping into second base, and he’s failed in those clutch situations that he seemed to be thrive on in the past.

Ortiz’s total production, as measured by VORP, hasn’t fallen too much. Since the season isn’t over yet, it’s more useful to compare his VORP rate (VORPr) because it’s easier to compare rate of production than to look at 75% of this season versus 100% of last season and try to compare those totals. Last season, Ortiz produced .494 runs per game, good for 7th in all of baseball. This year, he’s dropped off only slightly to .486 runs per game, 10th in all of baseball. That’s only a difference of 2 runs over the course of an entire season, so for all the fuss about Oritz’ production being doing significantly, it’s really not.

The reason Ortiz’ production hasn’t plummeted is that despite a drop in his 2006 SLG from .636 (4th overall) to 2007’s .560 (14th overall), his 2006 OBP of .413 (15th overall) has climbed all the way to .431 (3rd overall) in 2007. Fans are obsessed with power, and slugging percentage is indicative of power, so fans cringe when they see a drop in SLG. Fans should realize that OBP is more important than SLG; studies, beginning with Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, have repeatedly proven that 1 point in OBP is worth 3 points in SLG. Because on base percentage is more important to scoring runs than slugging percentage, Ortiz has nearly managed to balance his drop in SLG with an increase in OBP. While home runs are sexy, Ortiz has still been helping the team despite not hitting as many as he has in the past. This is probably due in large part to his nagging injuries that may be causing some of the balls he’#### to travel to the warning track instead of over the wall. Regardless, Ortiz has been productive and fans shouldn’t worry so much about his home run totals and slugging percentage being down.

 In today’s Boston Globe, Gordon Edes wrote about Big Papi's struggles in clutch situations this season.

 The idea of clutch has long been dismissed in sabermetric circles. The general argument is that numbers in the clutch are skewed either positively or negatively because of a small sample size. When the number of at bats is so low, generally around 30 or so for a season, a difference of three hits in clutch situations leads to a difference of .100 in AVG. While a number of players seem to always come through, it’s generally more perception than reality. Baseball Prospectus did a study on clutch hitting in their Baseball Between the Numbers and found that if anybody is clutch, it’s generally solid contact hitters who have high averages for their careers in all situations, like Mark Grace, formerly of the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. In general, clutch stats will regress towards overall career totals over time. Theo Epstein echoed this sentiment recently when asked about the Sox failure to hit with runners in scoring position; his response was something along the lines of saying that over time, the team would hit in such situations and things would even out.

(Personally, I agree with sabermetricians that clutch stats are overrated because of the small sample size. Mathematically, there’s really no way around that fact. However, I do think that there is an indefinable clutchness surrounding some players. It probably isn’t quantifiable, which is disappointing, but perhaps the aura surrounding a player like Ortiz is enough to shift the balance of power in his favor? Maybe fear inspired by some players actually boosts their performance or hinders that of their opponents? I’m not sure, but it’s a thought.)

 In 2007, Ortiz is hitting a mere .154 with an OPS of .385 in 26 at bats in which the Red Sox have been trailing in a game in the 7th inning or later with at least one man on base when Ortiz came to the plate. He has no home runs and just 2 RBI. In his 4 and a half years with the Red Sox, he has hit 8 home runs, driven in 51, and batted .275 with an OPS of .786 in such situations. This year’s numbers should come as no surprise. Anyone who’s watched the Sox this year has probably seen a situation in which Ortiz has failed to deliver the game tying or game winning hit when everybody expected him to do so. However, over the course of his career, the numbers dictate that this year’s clutch performances aren’t too far from his Sox career norms. Fans were spoiled by last season’s ridiculous 4 home run, 18 RBI, 1.000 OPS performance in such situations. If Ortiz was matching his career averages in clutch situations right now, fans would still be disappointed if viewed in the context of last year’s performance. Additionally, the perception of Ortiz as clutch has probably developed because his biggest hits have come on the biggest stage, the playoffs.

 What does all of this mean?

 1)      Sox fans should stop worrying about Ortiz’ production. He’s producing, he’ll be fine, and the offense will be fine.

2)      Ortiz’ injuries are probably sapping his power, but see #1. Next season, the power will likely be back.

3)      Clutch statistics are overrated, so take them with a grain of salt. Maybe perception is greater than reality in this case. Don’t worry about his low production in the clutch right now because it’ll even out.

 
Questions/Comments? Does anybody have a unique view on the clutch?

Eric Gagne makes the Red Sox a much better team than they had been before the trade. The Gagne trade won’t really add too many additional wins to the team over the course of the regular season, but it will make them a very difficult team to beat come October. This was a move made with the playoffs in mind, much like the Dave Roberts deal in 2004.

Theo Epstein deserves a lot of credit for somehow managing to pull off trading Kason Gabbard (a career 5th starter), David Murphy (a career 4th outfielder), and Engel Beltre (17 years old) for one of the most coveted assets on the marker at the trading deadline. Say what you want about Theo and his free agent signings; he knows how to make trades.

I’m still at a loss to explain how Texas only managed to get the Sox’ package and nothing better. (Note: Not only did he get Gagne, but he got probably two picks in the first two rounds of next year’s draft from the team that will sign Gagne this off-season under the CBA compensation rules. The biggest strength of the Epstein regime has to be his drafting. See Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, et al., and he put himself in a position to make more quality choices next June.) It’s possible that Texas had to accept less from the Sox due to the money they had to pay Gagne to get him to wave his no trade clause. The overall cost in prospects and dollars could be viewed as equaling the overall cost of the Yankees giving up Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, whom Texas allegedly wanted. 

The trade is even more interesting and appealing to Sox fans because it’s pretty evident that the Yankees’ needed bullpen help much more than the Sox, but actually dumped Scott Proctor rather than adding a reliever. Granted, Joba Chamberlain should be up and in the Mariano Rivera/ Jonathan Papelbon setup role within a week or so, but he’s still going to be a rookie performing in the heat of a playoff race, so a great performance isn’t guaranteed, though I wouldn’t bet against it. Detroit also had interest in Gagne; it was widely predicted that they’d acquire Gagne and essentially book their ticket to the World Series. Their interest probably faded due to the high asking price and also the impending returns of Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney.

One of my readers asked me to run Gagne through my trade machine to see how much he’d improve the Red Sox. I ran him through before yesterday’s outing, so basically using his Texas statistics. 

The Trade: Red Sox trade David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, and Engel Beltre to Texas for Eric Gagne. Curt Schilling replaces Gabbard in the rotation; Gagne replaces Kyle Snyder or Javier Lopez in the bullpen.  

In his last full season, 2004 with Los Angeles, Gagne pitched 26 times from August 1 through the end of the season. Even though he was a closer then and closers are more likely to pitch in pennant races than non-closers, the Sox, who have no obligations to Gagne after the season, will probably rely more heavily on him than Jonathan Papelbon because they have Papelbon under control for at least 3 or 4 more years. Projecting 26 appearances out of Gagne using the method that I had described in previous posts, he should have a VORP of 8 over the rest of the season. By itself, 8 VORP isn’t even a win, but remember the trickle down effect.

Gagne should be 7 run improvement over Javier Lopez or a 6 run improvement over Kyle Snyder. The improvement in the trade comes from Schilling (projected 17 VORP remaining) replacing Gabbard (projected 4.5 VORP remaining). This move would have happened anyways, but Schilling’s return allowed the Sox to deal from a position of strength and complete the trade for Gagne using Gabbard, so the two are not completely unrelated.

 By combining the additions of Gagne and Schilling with the departures of Snyder/Lopez and Gabbard, the Sox should gain about 20 VORP over the remainder of the season, or about 2 additional wins. While they might not really need the two wins to win the division, it adds a nice insurance policy.

I have yet to hear of a Red Sox trade rumor that would make them a significantly better team. Adding Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye, Ty Wigginton, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will not make the team much better overall. Ignoring even the cost of acquiring one of these players in terms of players and prospects, you can only consider the marginal benefit of adding the player, not the player’s overall stats.

The marginal benefit of player added = performance of [player added – player replaced]. This formula applies however you want to measure performance, whether it be traditionally (like using home runs) or sabermetrically (like VORP), as I choose to do. For example, adding a Teixeira, who is on pace for 23 home runs, would add 8 home runs if he replaced Kevin Youkilis (projected 15 HR), but cost a home run if Youkilis slide over to third and Mike Lowell (projected 24 HR) was replaced.

There really haven’t been any outstanding trade rumors involving the Sox in the past few days, but a few new names have popped up, so I’ll analyze those deals (more to come as the rumors hopefully start to fly).

1) Red Sox trade Michael Bowden, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn

Dunn plays first base, Youkilis plays third base, and the Sox trade Lowell in a separate deal for prospects.

Verdict: No thanks. Dunn (projected 17.28 VORP remaining) would add almost two wins over Mike Lowell, but the asking price for Dunn is reportedly steep right now. If the price were to drop to something like Bowden and Moss/David Murphy, then I’d probably think about pulling the trigger. However, Dunn’s contract allows him to opt out after this year if he’s traded, and he only has one more year either way, so he could be a costly rental in terms of prospects surrendered.

Quick notes:

1) I completely agree with Nick Caffardo’s column on Wednesday in the Boston Globe about not looking at small sample sizes when deciding whether or not the Sox need to make a trade. Last week at this time, the Sox had lost 8 of 11 and the sky was falling. This week, they’ve won 6 of 7 and are unstoppable. I think Theo Esptein has to make some kind of move to ensure there aren’t any more downward trends like losing 8 of 11.

2) I’ve written about wanting to trade Wily Mo Pena because he isn’t a role player on a championship-caliber team, but games like last nights (2 doubles, a laser of a home run, 4 RBI), make me hope even more for a torn calf muscle or any season-ending injury just so the Sox can hold on to him.

3) I’d be really happy if they traded Kason Gabbard right now and wish he had pitched a lot better last night so that he could have maintained a little more traded value. I look at it this way: he’s never going to be more valuable in a trade than he is now. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who was on a roll, but eventually he’ll start to get hit. Yes, he’s a sinker-baller, but those types of pitchers are usually less consistent from season due to a high dependence on defensive help. He doesn’t project to be more than a fourth or fifth starter, so any reasonable offer for him should be enough incentive for the Sox to trade him.

The 48-26 Boston Red Sox are exploring the possibility of trading for Mark Buehrle? The best-winning-percentage-in-baseball Boston Red Sox are considering trading prospects or maybe even major league talent for another starting pitcher? According to rumors out of the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, the Sox are the front runners for the White Sox pitcher who has gone 4-4 with a 3.39 ERA this season, including a no-hitter. Is this potential move a good one for the Sox?

First of all, the Sox are 11 games up in the AL East over the Toronto Blue Jays and 11.5 games ahead of the again-slumping New York Yankees. With 88 games left, the Sox could play .500 ball for the rest of the season and still finish with a 92-70 record. The Blue Jays would have to go 55-33 (.625 winning percentage) to tie the Sox and the Yankees would have to go 56-33 (.629 winning percentage) if the Sox struggled and won 50% of their remaining games. Realistically, that isn’t going to happen. The Yankees may win 63 more games while losing only 26 if they catch fire (.707 winning percentage), but that would leave them with 99 wins, and the Sox would only need to go 51-37 (.579 winning percentage) to tie the Yankees. Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds Report gives the Sox a 96.7% chance of winning the division and a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs. Basically, it’s going to take a collapse of epic proportions for Boston to NOT make the playoffs. I wasn’t born in 1978 so I don’t know what that was like, but I simply don’t see them blowing a lead this big. So why are they even thinking about Mark Buehrle?

In the playoffs, teams need a #### of solid starters and a fourth serviceable starter to compete in the best of seven LCS and World Series. Looking around the AL at the contenders, here’s the top four for their rotations. These rotations are based on the assumption that currently injured players who should be returning from injury by the playoffs will do so (an admittedly risky assumption).

Boston – Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield

New York – Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina

Cleveland – Sabathia, Carmona, Byrd, Westbrook/Lee

Detroit – Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson, Rogers

Minnesota – Santana, Bonser, Silva, Garza

Los Angeles – Lackey, Weaver, Escobar, Colon

Oakland – Haren, Harden, Blanton, Gaudin

Seattle – Hernandez, Washburn, Bautista, Baek

I’d rank those teams in this order: Detroit, Boston, Oakland, Los Angeles, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Seattle. Adding Mark Buehrle to the Boston rotation and subtracting Wakefield or Julian Tavarez makes the Sox more formidable, on paper at least. Statistically, Buehrle is worth about 1.5 wins more than Tavarez over the course of the remaining season, and about 1.2 wins more than Wakefield.

Pitcher      VORP         VORP/GS            Proj # Starts Left            Proj VORP Left         Proj Wins Left

Wakefield    12.9            .86                            17                                        14.62                            1.46

  Tavarez      11.1            .85                           15                                          12.80                           1.28

Buehrle         23.4            1.8                           15                                          27                                   2.7

As previously mentioned, the division probably won’t come down to a game or two, so the Red Sox should make the playoffs regardless of whether or not they acquire Mark Buehrle.

In the 2005 playoffs, Buehrle was pretty much outstanding, including a 7 IP, 4 ER victory against the Sox. Overall, he was 2-0 with a 3.47 ERA and a WHIP of .9, including a complete game effort in which he gave up just one run and only 5 base runners. His strikeout rate was low, as he fanned just 10 in 23.3 innings, but Buehrle isn’t really a strikeout pitcher. He certainly doesn’t have the post-season pedigree of a Curt Schilling or even a Josh Beckett, but he performed well in 2005 and would seem unlikely to melt under the pressure of the playoffs.

However, given the low strikeout rate and the resulting fact that he relies on his fielders so much to make plays, Buehrle might be subject to some inconsistency in his performances because the outcomes of a large percentage of his plays are at the mercy of his fielders. He also has a tendency to give up the long ball, with totals in the mid-twenties to mid-thirties over the past 3 seasons and 13 already allowed this year. His DIPS ERA, which is based on the three outcomes a pitcher directly controls, strikeouts, walks, and home runs, is 4.27, which is 1.26 times his actual ERA. Because DIPS ERA is more stable from year to year and is more accurate in terms of predictive value, a pitcher with a DIPS ERA higher than his actual ERA tends to regress in performance and vice versa. As a point of comparison, Josh Beckett’s DIPS ERA is 2.95, or .96 times his actual ERA, so he should be fairly consistent over the course of the season. Dan Haren’s DIPS ERA is 3.39, 1.9 times his actual ERA of 1.78, so he’ll likely regress. Buehrle, therefore, is a candidate to regress, potentially making his projected wins added even lower than 1.2 over Wakefield.

Given all those statistical facts AND that he’s a free agent after the season who’s stated that he wants to play in his native St. Louis, I’d be extremely hesitant to trade anything of value for Buehrle, who could end up as an expensive rent-a-player. I would absolutely not trade Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury, and would be really hesitant to trade Daniel Bard or Michael Bowden. If the Herald’s Rob Bradford is correct is stating that Brandon Moss and Jed Lowrie might be enough to acquire Buehrle, the Sox should consider such a trade. I wouldn’t criticize them for not pulling the trigger, though.

There are, however, two scenarios that could lead the Sox to explore a trade for the Chicago lefty. One such scenario would be one much Cliff Floyd’s 2002 season. The outfielder was traded two times, once from the Florida Marlins to the Montreal Expos and a second time from the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox. Why would the Sox make such a move with Mark Buehrle? Maybe they feel like they have a good match in terms of prospects to trade with the White Sox. They could move a few prospects to Chicago now and then turn around and trade Buehrle in a few weeks for better prospects when demand increases around the trading deadline. They wouldn’t exactly be buying low and selling high; they’d be buying high and selling higher. I don’t know how realistic this scenario actually is, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility. Under a second scenario, the Sox would actually need Buehrle. Might Curt Schilling’s injury actually be more serious than expected? Jason Schmidt was sidelined with a similar injury earlier in the year, came back, and promptly blew out his arm and is out for the season. Even if Schilling’s injury isn’t as serious, the Sox could be worried and look at Buehrle as insurance in case the 40 year old Schilling doesn’t come back or isn’t effective. If this is the case, then the Sox should attempt to make a conservative trade for Mark Buehrle in which they don’t give up too much in terms of prospects.

Is Mark Buehrle that much better of an option over the course of this season than Jon Lester? That’s an unknown. Lester should strikeout more batters, but hasn’t been doing so in Pawtucket (which is likely the reason that Kason Gabbard is getting the start Tuesday night in Seattle), but is also young and relatively unproven. If he performed at the same level as last season, he’d basically be Julian Tavarez, making Buehrle a better option than Lester. If he improves over last year’s performance, Buehrle might not be worth the prospects that he would cost.

Would I, as Theo Epstein, trade for Mark Buehrle? Certainly, he makes the rotation even more formidable, but only marginally so. Unless Schilling is hurt more seriously than the Sox are letting the public know, I would probably pass on Buehrle. Even if he were traded to the Yankees, he would not be a difference maker in the AL East race. If Schilling is more seriously hurt, I’d offer a package comprised of something like Wily Mo Pena, Daniel Bard, and Brandon Moss, but not much more. That likely would not get a deal done with Chicago GM Kenny Williams, but anything else would be overpaying.

(NOTE: The Sox ended their losing streak as I wrote this entry. Congrats to Schilling on his near-no hitter. I’m a little sad for him; maybe if Lugo doesn’t make the error, he doesn’t have to face Stewart and ends the game with Kendall. Still, a brilliant performance.)

 

The Sox have lost four games in a row and six out of their last seven. In that time, the Yankees have reduced the gap between the two teams from 14.5 games to 10.5. The more pessimistic members of Red Sox Nation are worrying about a June swoon, and Yankees fans are encouraged by their team’s winning 5 of 7, including 2 of 3 from the Sox, as well as the looming debut of Roger Clemens, allegedly on Saturday versus the Pirates. At this point, the question seems to be hanging in the air: Can the Yankees catch the Red Sox and win their 10th consecutive AL East title? I’m not going to question whether or not they can make the playoffs: they are a mere 6.5 games behind Wild Card-leading Detroit.

 

In short, the answer is no, and there are a few reasons. One is that the Red Sox aren’t a team that is likely to lose 6 of 7 games more than once or twice per season, and if you actually look at the games they’ve lost, the only ones they didn’t have a good chance to win are Matsuzaka’s loss to Cleveland last Wednesday and Wakefield’s loss to the Yankees last Friday. The other losses include a Jonathan Papelbon mistake to A-Rod following an amazing, if not lucky, catch by Bobby Abreu on Dustin Pedroia’s bid for a bases clearing double, a frustrated extra inning loss after a 9th inning comeback in a game started by Danny Haren, and back to back double play plagued games in games featuring less than impressive starts by Lenny DiNardo and Joe Kennedy. I’m not going to say that the Red Sox have been unlucky, because luck seems to balance itself out over the course of a season, but grounding into 3 or more double plays in 4 of 6 games isn’t symptomatic of an offensive problem, but of chance, or in this case, misfortune. Otherwise, the pitching has been solid since Sunday and the offense has produced a good amount of base runners. Eventually, the runs will come.

 

 Secondly, the Yankees main problem, now that the offense has woken from its season long slumber, is pitching. Chien Ming Wang is a very good major league pitcher, so long as his defense is good behind him because he doesn’t strikeout anyone (3.45 K’s/9 over his major league career). Andy Pettite has been great this season, but age and durability are questions as he moves forward. Mike Mussina has been throwing slop all year, as his fastball has disappeared and he rarely hits 90 MPH. Tyler Clippard has been great so far, but will that really continue? Baseball Prospectus projected him to have an ERA of 5.09 this year, far beyond his 3.60 so far. Chances are he’ll level off.

 

Which bring us to Clemens. Look. Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, but he isn’t going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the American League East. Last year in the NL Central, Clemens averaged just over 6 innings per start. In his last year in the AL East, 2003, he had a 3.91 ERA. With aging and his readjustment to the AL East, the Yankees shouldn’t realistically expect any better than a consistent 6 IP, 2 or 3 ER from Clemens. While that should keep the Yankees in many games, their bullpen is horrible, and might be unable to hold a lead for 3 innings. Brian Bruney has been great, and Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera, but otherwise, the bullpen has been overworked and has underperformed, partly as a result of being overworked.

 

In my mind, the most important player for the Yankees is Phillip Hughes, who is currently injured and isn’t expected back until sometime in late-July or early August. I’ll expound on my reasoning in my next post. Basically, I’ll explain how I think that Hughes and be like Papelbon was for the Sox in late 2005, a huge asset for the Yankees.

The Red Sox offense has been anemic so far this season, scoring only 33 runs in 8 games for an average of just over four a game. 4 runs a game may seem like a lot, but keep in mind that they scored 14 runs in one game. Take away the home opener against a rusty pitching staff and a starting pitcher who had been pushed back 4 days due to snow, Jeff Weaver, and the Sox have scored 19 runs in 7 games, or 2.7 runs per game. That’s simply not enough to get the job done. Granted, the sample size is very small, but it’s worth noting. The team’s OBP is only .320, which is much, much lower than 2006’s .351, 2005’s .357, 2004’s .360, and 2003’s .360. Given that OBP is statistically the most important offensive metric, the difference between this season’s and the past few year’s is troubling. The only comforting fact is that the league average OBP right now is .319, so it could just be a product of early season hitting struggles or the bad weather, but the Sox need to get back to being patient, making the starters throw strikes, getting into the bullpen early, and beating their opponents’ typically weak middle relief. Does this team have the right type of offensive players to carry out the organization’s philosophy of working the count and taking walks? The addition of JD Drew, a great OBP man, is certainly helpful. Pedroia is an unknown, but having developed in the organization, he should have the philosophy engrained at this point. Julio Lugo’s career OBP is only .340, which is problematic because he’s the leadoff hitter and needs to get on base as much as possible for the team to score runs. The team might be better served with a lineup as follows because of the high OBPs of Youkilis and Drew:

Youkilis
Drew
Ortiz
Ramirez
Lugo
Varitek
Lowell
Crisp
Pedrioa

In addition, the Sox are slugging a mere .352 as a team and have only 4 home runs; league average is .387. I’d have to attribute that to the cold weather, but an improvement should be coming.

The Sox definitely have their work cut out for them this weekend, with Anaheim’s team ERA coming in at 2.66. It should be a good series given the way both teams have been pitching and struggling to score runs (Anaheim’s averaging 4 per game). With Schilling and Beckett both pitching in the series, the Sox should take at least 2 of 4, weather permitting.

There's not too much positive to be said about Friday and Saturday's losses to Texas other than that Tim Wakefield and the bullpen were strong on Friday. Saturday's game was a debacle, as Tavarez struggled and the bullpen imploded for the first time of the season. In addition, Francona burned through the entire pen except for Papelbon, although the decision wasn't as bad as it could have been given Francona's knowledge that Schilling was starting tonight and was eager to make ammends for his Opening Day performance. The offense was abysmal both Friday and Saturday, failing to work counts, swing at first pitches, chasing balls, and being very un-Red Sox-like in general. The Sox deserved to lose both games and they did.

Sunday night's game was a very good win for the team and leaves them at 3-3 coming back to Fenway to open the season. While 4-2 would have been nice coming home, 3-3 is acceptable, especially given the weather they've played in so far (although this week doesn't promise to be much better). Schilling was excellent in his second outting, making all the worrying about his first start seem like a waste of time. His velocity was up and his command was good, although it didn't seem like he threw many changeups, and the one he definitely did got hit for a home run by Frank Catalanato. It was nice to see Schilling dominate the way he's expected to as ace of the pitching staff.

 The offense still struggled mightly with the exception of David Ortiz, who broke out with two home runs and all three RBIs. Otherwise, they've struggled to piece together hits and runs with any consistancy. Already, Alex Cora started for Dustin Pedroia, whose swing has been long and wild so far; I suspect that it was just Francona wanting to get Cora some at-bats, not a benching of Pedroia. Manny Ramirez hit the ball well tonight, so it looks like he'll be breaking out any day now. Also, Varitek's been going to the opposite field a lot, and while it might not be working right now on the road, those balls being caught in left field are going to be doubles at Fenway. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the offense really pick it up as soon as they get to Fenway.

 This will be the subject of another post, hopefully tomorrow, so check back, but Francona deserves a lot of credit for the way he handled Papelbon tonight. It was absolutely necessary that he pitch in the 8th inning, as it was the most important situation of the game. ESPN's Joe Morgan said that Francona told him that sometimes he'll use Papelbon in the 8th and someone else in the 9th if necessary to get the win. I really like Francona's thinking here, and I'll write more on it later.

 

Overall, a decent season opening road trip, and although 4-2 would be better, 3-3 is acceptable as the team tries to find their stride.





 

As bad as Opening Day turned out after Curt Schilling’s horrendous start, the Red Sox played some pretty good the last two games. The pitching, in particular, was fantastic, with Josh Beckett pitching five solid innings on Wednesday and Daisuke Matsuzaka dominating for seven innings on Thursday. The offense had some timely hits on Wednesday, and took advantage of Kansas City’s defensive miscues on Thursday to give Beckett, Matsuzaka, and the bullpen enough support for the Sox to win 2 of 3 from the Royals.

Beckett’s performance was very encouraging. No, he wasn’t spectacular and he did last only 5 innings, but his approach was much different than it was last season. In his first season in the AL, he threw fastball after fastball whenever he was in trouble, and hitters just sat on them and hammered them. Towards the end of last year, he started throwing some two-seamed fastballs with decent effectiveness, and it helped him pitch better over the final month of the season. Wednesday night, Beckett struggled with his command, actually throwing more balls than strikes, blaming it on the cold and an inability to grip the ball. The best part of his start was that he didn’t constantly go to the fastball when he was in trouble and he didn’t abandon his curveball even though he couldn’t locate well with it. His two-seamer was pretty nasty and gave hitters a different look. His changeup, virtually nonexistent last year, was a few miles per hour slower and had some good movement. When he threw the curve, it generally had good bite on it, even though he left a couple high in the strike zone. Beckett probably would have gone at least six innings if Mike Lowell hadn’t committed two back-to-back errors that led to Beckett facing three extra batters. If Beckett sticks to his new game plan and uses his offspeed pitches to compliment his mid-to-high 90s fastball, he’ll live up to the expectations he faced last year, and the Sox will be very tough to beat.

Matsuzaka came as advertised on Thursday. He was dominant over the course of seven innings, allowing just one run on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 10. He mixed his pitches really well, throwing six according to NESN analyst Jerry Remy and seven according to Dennis Eckersley: fastball, curve, changeup, splitter (forkball according to Eckersley), slider, two-seamer, and cutter (slider according to Remy). While NESN had Matsuzaka’s velocity hitting only 93, they had Beckett at 94 while, according to the Boston Globe, Beckett was hitting 97 on the Kauffman Stadium gun. Adding two to three miles per hour would put Matsuzaka in the 93-96 range, which is impressive. Papelbon was clocked at 94 today as well, and he definitely looked to be throwing harder. It’s only one start, but I loved how Matsuzaka pitched backwards, throwing offspeed pitches in fastball counts, and how he worked on the corners on the strike zone. It’s way to early to hand Matsuzaka the Cy Young award, but he pitched well. I’m eager to see how he does against better teams, as he’s scheduled to face Seattle on the 11th, Anaheim on the 16th, and the Yankees on the 21st.

 

Curt Schilling's performance on Opening Day versus Kansas City certainly left a lot to be desired. He threw 89 pitches in just 4 innings, giving up 8 hits and 2 walks while allowing 5 runs and striking out 5. Schilling just didn't look good at all; his fastball was flat, his changeup hung, and he couldn't locate his splitter at times. 

The results aren't really worrisome, as it is only one start, but some of the feedback on Schilling's performance is troubling. Kevin Kernan of the NY Post was on ESPN's Cold Pizza reporting that some scouts feel that Schilling's weight is preventing him from repeating his delievery sometimes. They also noted that his fastball's velocity was so down (mostly 85-89 from what I saw, topping out at 94 and wild) that hitters were just laying off his offspeed stuff and sitting on the fastball. Schilling certainly threw more offspeed stuff than usual; 67% his pitches last year were fastballs, and I'd be willing to bet that that percentage was lower Monday. Look, if Schilling loses his fastball (and it'll take at least a month to determine that), he could be in trouble. He envisions himself as a Roger Clemens who can dominate well into his 40s, but he hasn't maintained the velocity that Clemens has, nor the physical condition. Some pitchers can adapt to not having their best fastball, and Schilling is smart enough to eventually do that, but he doesn't have the secondary pitches that Pedro Martinez does; Pedro has become more of a pitcher in the past 4 years, relying on his baseball intelligence to keep hitters offbalance. Will Schilling be able to make a similar adjustment should he lose his fastball, or will he go down in flames with the old gunslinger's mentality?

One start isn't enough to cause concern, but a) there was no game on Tuesday and b) the scouts' take on Schilling was interesting, so I felt it was worth posting.

The 2007 season is just minutes away, and I cannot wait. It’s been a long five and a half months since Adam Wainwright recorded the final out of the World Series against the Tigers on a swinging strikeout. That’s coming from someone living in Boston, which might as well be the baseball center of the universe, since there really is no off-season. It’s been fun to speculate about trades, signings, roles, and prospects, but I’ve had enough NESN Red Sox Walk-off Replays and I’m ready for the real thing.

I guess it’s time to discuss the Red Sox and what I think of the team overall. I’ve already written in-depth about the closer situation, second base, shortstop, and right field, but I’ll go position by position briefly. 

Catcher: Jason Varitek … The Sox really need a much better season offensively out of Varitek than he gave them last year. The problem is that Varitek is at the age that normal players begin to decline, often steeply; catchers have even shorter shelf lives than others, so Varitek could truly be in decline. His 2.8 VORP was abysmal last year, and is projected at a better, but not great, 16.8 this year. They can take that 16.8 VORP with his excellent defense and leadership, but Mirabelli is a good backup (but wasn’t last year). Ideally, George Kottaras will progress to the point that he’s ready in September to back up Varitek. 

First base: Kevin Youkilis … Youkilis gave the Sox a very productive season in 2006, and they’d certainly like to see the Youkilis of last April-August than the beat up and worn down Youkilis of September. While he’ll never be the prototypical slugging first basemen, his high OBP balances his slightly below average SLG to keep his OPS in the .800s. He should be solid in the second spot of the lineup.

Second base: Dustin Pedroia … The big question is will he hit enough? I think he will. See my previous post for more.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo … Lugo’s definitely an upgrade, as I wrote in my last post. See that for more. 

Third base: Mike Lowell … Lowell’s interesting in that is 2006 was in line with the rest of his career, given the assumption that he’ll decline as he ages. It seems that 2005 was an aberration, and the Sox need a 2006-type performance out of Lowell to ensure that the lineup is deep enough. His projected VORP of 10.4 isn’t going to be enough, as it’s basically a one win drop off from last season. The Sox need more than just his glove.

Left field: Manny Ramirez … He’s healthy, he’s happy, and he’s Manny. He’ll be one of the best players in baseball, and he’ll continue on his path towards the Hall of Fame. He might even be better with JD Drew hitting behind him. 

Center field: Coco Crisp … This is a spot where the Sox need and expect much improvement. Crisp was hurt last season early on and it affected his performance negatively. His projected 21.6 VORP would be a win and a half improvement over 2006 and seems reachable. Still, questions linger, especially about his attitude this spring. If he’s a malcontent and doesn’t produce, look for him to be dealt, as the Sox have people who can fill in temporarily in center, such as Wily Mo Pena, JD Drew, David Murphy, and the center fielder of the future, Jacoby Ellsbury. Wily Mo Pena would provide a lot more offense than Crisp, and Crisp’s defense, despite his occasional highlight-reel catchers, isn’t great, as he takes bad routes to balls and has a horrible arm. Pena’s offensive improvement, if Crisp struggles, would be greater than the drop-off in defense. It’s too early to write off Crisp though, as his career path until this past season was similar to Johnny Damon’s, with slightly less power. That’s probably the subject of another post.

Right field: JD Drew … See my other post about Drew. They need him to be healthy, but do have depth if he isn’t. 

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz … He’ll be great, but not as good as last year; it’s probably impossible. Watch for signs of breakdown. He’s getting older and he’s a big guy, so he could become injury prone. He should be in the top five in the AL MVP race.

Starting Rotation: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Julian Tavarez … I want to keep it brief (I'll probably go in-depth soon), but this rotation has a chance to be special if things fall right. Schilling needs to be healthy, Beckett needs to be less stubborn, Matsuzaka needs to prove he can pitch in the AL East, Wakefield needs to be Wakefield, and Tavarez (and Kyle Snyder), need to keep Jon Lester or Roger Clemens’ seat warm until June. Look for Beckett to be the ace of the staff come October if he relies on his curve, changeup and two-seamer more, although realistically, it could still be Schilling or Matsuzaka as well. (NOTE: Beckett is my favorite pitcher behind Pedro Martinez, so anything I write about him could be a little biased. Matsuzaka could approach that duo this season if he comes as advertised, which he appears to be.)

Bullpen: Kyle Snyder, Hideki Okajima, Javier Lopez, JC Romero, Brendan Donnelly, Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin (DL), Jonathan Papelbon … The bullpen is loaded with veteran question marks, but should be solid. They have three lefties to start the season in Okajima, Lopez, and Romero, but Lopez will be demoted when Timlin returns. Donnelley and Pineiro will set up Papelbon until Timlin returns, and Snyder should provide an Arroyo-like performance as swingman. I’m disappointed that Delcarmen got sent down, but he’ll be back shortly, probably by May; he’s got too much talent to sit and dominate AAA. Hansen should improve to the point that he’s useful by July, and 2006 draftee Bryce Cox is also on the horizon. In September, it’s not unrealistic (OK, it’s a little bit of a stretch) to think that bullpen’s most important pieces will be Papelbon, Delcarmen, Hansen, Okajima, and Cox. I think they’ll be alright as the season progresses, and that the bullpen could gel like it did in the 2003 postseason, when it was dominant. 

Bench: Alex Cora, Doug Mirabelli, Eric Hinske, Wily Mo Pena … Ideally, they’d want a faster 4th outfielder, but they’ll settle for Pena’s awesome bat. Cora and Mirabelli are near the tops of their respective roles in all of baseball, and Hinske gives them a nice left-handed compliment to Pena, as well as the ability to play all four corner positions. The bench is solid.

Overall, I see about 94 wins for the Sox, which should be good for a playoff spot. I don’t see any potential wild card threats in the AL West, and the AL Central is so deep that it might be hard for two teams to play playoff-caliber baseball. If the Sox get in the playoffs, they certainly have the pitching and experience to succeed. To me, the most important questions are those of age, health, and Francona’s use (or misuse) of Papelbon. If things fall right for the Sox, and the rotation makes almost all of its starts like in 2004, there could very well be another parade in late October.

 

Predictions:

AL East: Boston

AL West: Anaheim

AL Central: Cleveland

AL Wild Card: New York

ALDS: Boston over Cleveland, New York over Anaheim

ALCS: Boston over New York

 

NL East: New York

NL Central: Chicago

NL West: Los Angeles

NL Wild Card: Arizona

NLDS: Arizona over New York, Los Angeles over Chicago

NLCS: Los Angeles over Arizona

 

World Series: Boston over Los Angeles … Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Papelbon run the Sox through the playoffs a la Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, and Foulke circa 2004, with Ramirez, Ortiz, and Drew providing the offense.

 

My favorite players to watch heading into 2007:

Pedro Martinez
Josh Beckett
Manny Ramirez
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jonathan Papelbon
Alfonso Soriano
Miguel Cabrera
Mariano Rivera
Nomar Garciaparra
Derek Lowe
Alex Cora

It’s heavily populated with Red Sox or former Red Sox, but I do appreciate all good players.

 

Leave comments, thoughts, lists of favorite players, etc.

With Dustin Pedroia’s mediocre (or even poor) performances during the last few weeks of last season and through this point in spring training, fans are already clamoring for the return of Mark Loretta, second-guessing the Sox’ decision to let him sign for a mere $3,000,000 with the Houston Astros, where he’ll play in a utility role. It seems that fans have very selective memories when it comes to Loretta’s performance last season. While he was admittedly gritty, playing through injuries to help the team while it struggled, grit isn’t often enough to keep a player around, as I wrote when discussing Trot Nixon.

To the casual fan, Loretta’s stats were pretty good, as he hit .285 with 59 RBIs at second base, while playing excellent defense. Those numbers don’t tell anywhere close to the whole story, however. Loretta’s OBP was merely average at best at .345. His slugging percentage was an abysmal .361; he had only 38 extra base hits all season (5 HR, 33 2B). As a result, his OPS was only .706. Loretta managed to accomplish this with a Batting Average on Balls in Play of .310, which is above the league average .300, so a regression could have been coming. In terms of his acclaimed fielding, Loretta was also actually below average. While he made just 4 errors for a .994 fielding percentage, he lacked severely lacked range and ended up 9 runs below average defensively. In total, his VORP was 12.3, or about a win.

Pedroia’s struggles are undeniable. He hit only .191 in 89 At bats with 2 HR and 7 RBI. He also managed 3 errors in 27 games, which certainly isn’t good. This spring, despite the lack of correlation between spring and regular season stats,  Pedroia is hitting .211 with a .587 OPS, offering little hope. His Baseball Prospectus projection puts him at 8 HR and 57 RBI with a .294 AVG, .360 OBP, and .431 SLG; his VORP is projected at 20.6, which is almost a win above what Loretta was last year. Defensively, Pedroia is projected to be 3 runs above average and is said to have great hands and decent range, as he used to play shortstop.

I completely understand the Red Sox decision to let Loretta go; he was overrated, plain and simple. Also, the Red Sox have made it a practice recently to integrate one young player a year. In 2004, it was Youkilis. In 2005, it was Papelbon. In 2006, both Hansen and Delcarmen played significant roles, as well as Lester. 2007 is Pedroia’s turn, but if he struggles, Alex Cora is probably one of the best utility infielders in the league. He’s extremely intelligent and a great situational player. He almost never makes errors, mental or physical. Cora could handle the job on a permanent basis, provided that players like Coco Crisp, Mike Lowell, and Jason Varitek are hitting. If the Sox were uncomfortable with Cora, whom they signed to a 2 year deal in the off-season, plenty of second basemen will be available, such as Ronnie Belliard (minor league deal with the Nationals), Todd Walker (cut by San Diego), Mark Bellhorn (minors with Cincinnati), and even Loretta. My gut feeling tells me that Pedroia will easily replace Loretta’s production, but won’t live up to expectations, and the Sox might, depending on the rest of the lineup, upgrade to someone like Walker near the trading deadline.

With the season just 6 days away, I'm planning on doing a position-based analysis of the Sox, followed by a general MLB preview with predictions, etc. Hopefully, it'll all get done by Sunday night. We'll see.

 

EDIT (3/31): Doesn't look like I'll finish, so I'll try to just do the new positional players first, and a brief breakdown of the others in the season preview. 

The more that we learn about Papelbon moving back to the bullpen, the less the decision looks like a good one, at least based on what the Red Sox and Papelbon are both saying about his usage. Both sides insist that Papelbon will be used mainly for one inning, the 9th, in situations where the Red Sox are leading. While it's great that the team is concerned about Papelbon's health from both the player's and the team's standpoint, the way Francona, at least publicly, plans to use Papelbon might be a problem.

As is, managers misuse their closers, usually saving them for the 9th inning, even if there is a point in the game in the 7th or 8th inning where using the best relief pitcher would be more beneficial towards winning the game. Win Expectancy gives credit to pitchers based on the importance of the outs that they record in a game. Based on play by play data, the exact change in a team's odds of winning a given game can be calculated given score, home/away, outs, and runners on base. Win expectancy (or WXRL, which adjusts for replacement level) gives a pitcher credit equal to the change in the odd's of his team's victory. You can find the exact numbers on Baseball Prospectus' website. Using that stat, one can see that each out is not equal in value; some have higher marginal value than others. Studies have been done that have shown that a lot of times, outs with the highest marginal value come in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings, not just the 9th. The optimal way to allocate resources, in this case the closer, would be to use him in the situations with the highest leverage, or change in the odds of victory.

Last season, Francona used Papelbon in many of those situations, and it was reflected in his WXRL of 6.605, second in the league behind Francisco Rodriguez of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Another of last year's phenom reliever, Detroit's setup man Joel Zumaya, posted a higher WXRL than that of the team's closer, Todd Jones; while fans clamored for Zumaya to be named the team's closer, Jim Leyland was actually efficently allocating his resources. By pitching almost exclusively the 9th inning, Papelbon's value to the team diminishes significantly.

BP's updated PECOTA on Papelbon puts his VORP at a mere 19.6, meaning they project that'd he'll add about 2 wins to the team's total over the course of the season. As a starter, his last projected VORP was 30.1, or approximately 3 wins over the course of the season. Going by those projections, moving Papelbon to the pen will cost the team a win, without factoring in the trickle down effect. (NOTE: In my last post, I thought the trickle down effect would help the Sox, but BP's projections have Tavarez worse as a starter, and Lester and Snyder's gains don't offset Tavarez's loss. The again, BP's offensive projections are 70%+ accurate, while their pitching projections are less than 50% accurate.) At a VORP of 19.6, Papelbon's closest comparisons to last season are Aaron Heilman (Mets setup), Scott Linebrink (Padre setup), and Chad Qualls (Astros setup/closer). While the VORP looks low for Papelbon, the projected 60 IP looks accurate based on the Sox' comments on his usage.

Look: The bottom line is that Papelbon is unlikely to reach his extraordinary VORP from last year of 38.6 (approx. 4 wins). Hopefully he'll be in the Joe Nathan range of 30-35 VORP (3-3.5 wins) and his value as a closer will be equal to that as a starter. Then again, maybe Roger Clemens and is projected 28.3 VORP will be in a Sox uniform in June, and replace what Papelbon was slotted to do as a starter, making this whole Papelbon-as-starter-or-closer debate meaningless.

Hey, it's obviously all specualtion that this point, so it's useless, but fun.

ESPN’s Erin Andrews is reporting during the Red Sox-Phillies broadcast that the Red Sox have made the decision to move Jonathan Papelbon back to the closer’s role after spending much of the off-season and the entire spring insisting that he’d open the season as the number four starter in the Red Sox rotation. They’ll make the announcement after the game. According the Andrews, Papelbon really wants to close because he feels that he can help the team more as the closer than as fourth st