Here are my American League predictions for the upcoming season, just to get them up before the season starts. Since the National League doesn’t start until Sunday, those predictions will come later. A more detailed preview will be posted within the next week or so…

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox: Health and youth progression are the biggest questions, but the Beckett/Papelbon and Ortiz/Ramirez combinations are among the best in the game.

2. New York Yankees (Wild Card): The lineup is incredible and Chamberlain/Rivera is a great combination at the end of the game, but the starting pitching is questionable, especially with Wang’s inability to win the big game thus far in his career.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: The team has awesome pitching, a good lineup, and lots of young talent, but most of their key players have shaky health histories, which doesn’t bode well for a contending team.

4. Tampa Bay Rays: Awesome potential, but not enough to finish in the top three in the AL East. If the pitching develops, they could be tough, but most likely not for a couple of years.

5. Baltimore: If they trade Brian Roberts and then George Sherrill at the trading dead line, at least they’ll be in full rebuilding mode. There’s no middle ground with respect to rebuilding. The Orioles have blown it up, which is the right way to go.

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians: They might be the deepest team, although their closer is still shaky and Carmona will probably regress, it’s a much more complete team than people give them credit for. Remember, they were very dangerous in 2005, got hurt in 2006, and were a game away from the World Series in 2007.

2. Detroit Tigers: The lineup could be historic, but Verlander is the only sure thing on the pitching staff. Dontrelle Willis is more likely to be worse in the AL than to improve, Bonderman has been inconsistent, but could dominate, Kenny Rogers is old, and Nate Robertson is middle of the road. The bullpen is very weak at the back end and the team has very little in terms of trade chips in the minors.

3. Chicago White Sox: Swisher is a great addition and although Orlando Cabrera is overrated, he’ll fit well as a sparkplug under Ozzie Guillen. The pitching will be key, especially the bullpen, which was horrible last year; it should be better this year.

4. Minnesota Twins: With no Santana and Liriano still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins will probably struggle. Delmon Young joins Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer in a potent offensive core, but it won’t be enough. They’ll have to rely on a very good bullpen and hope for the young pitching to develop in order to have any chance.

5. Kansas City Royals: Meche and Bannister offer a decent front end of the rotation, although they’re more likely to be 2-3 or 3-4 on a championship team. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahan should all have good seasons this year.

AL West

1. Anaheim Angels: They’re the best of a flawed division, although if their young pitching develops, they’ll have a lot of depth. The Angels have no real shortstop, an injury-prone first basemen, and too many aging outfielders in Guerrero, Anderson, and even Matthews. Hunter is going to be overpaid, but he’s a huge upgrade in center over Matthews both offensively and defensively. Also, if Scot Shields is injured, a new setup man must emerge.

2. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners will not be a championship contender, unless they sign Barry Bonds. There are serious questions at DH (Vidro), 1B (Sexson), RF (Wilkerson), LF (Ibanez), 2B (Lopez), and SS (Betancourt). They weren’t an 88 win team based on their run differential last year and neither Bedard nor Hernandez has stayed healthy for a full season. Even if healthy, it won’t be enough.

3. Oakland Athletics: Billy Beane has to hope for a monster first half from Rich Harden so he can trade him and maybe Huston Street and Joe Blanton and continue his rebuilding process, which has drawn rave reviews so far. Otherwise, they could be an exciting team to watch develop, but that’s about it.

4. Texas Rangers: They’re strong up the middle with Young, Kinsler, and Hamilton, and Bradley could be a nice pickup if healthy. They really overpaid for Hamilton, giving up a good pitching prospect in Eldinson Volquez. Saltalamacchia should get the starting job so he can develop, but it looks like he’ll split time with Laird at best to start the season. The pitching staff won’t be pretty.

Playoffs

Red Sox over Angels: Again….

Indians over Yankees: Again…

Red Sox over Indians: Again…

AL Champions: Boston Red Sox: Again…

Potential swaps in playoffs: Tigers as wild card instead of Yankees

Potential surprise teams: Chicago, Oakland

Potential disappointments: Seattle, Toronto, Detroit

I have yet to hear of a Red Sox trade rumor that would make them a significantly better team. Adding Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye, Ty Wigginton, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will not make the team much better overall. Ignoring even the cost of acquiring one of these players in terms of players and prospects, you can only consider the marginal benefit of adding the player, not the player’s overall stats.

The marginal benefit of player added = performance of [player added – player replaced]. This formula applies however you want to measure performance, whether it be traditionally (like using home runs) or sabermetrically (like VORP), as I choose to do. For example, adding a Teixeira, who is on pace for 23 home runs, would add 8 home runs if he replaced Kevin Youkilis (projected 15 HR), but cost a home run if Youkilis slide over to third and Mike Lowell (projected 24 HR) was replaced.

There really haven’t been any outstanding trade rumors involving the Sox in the past few days, but a few new names have popped up, so I’ll analyze those deals (more to come as the rumors hopefully start to fly).

1) Red Sox trade Michael Bowden, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn

Dunn plays first base, Youkilis plays third base, and the Sox trade Lowell in a separate deal for prospects.

Verdict: No thanks. Dunn (projected 17.28 VORP remaining) would add almost two wins over Mike Lowell, but the asking price for Dunn is reportedly steep right now. If the price were to drop to something like Bowden and Moss/David Murphy, then I’d probably think about pulling the trigger. However, Dunn’s contract allows him to opt out after this year if he’s traded, and he only has one more year either way, so he could be a costly rental in terms of prospects surrendered.

Quick notes:

1) I completely agree with Nick Caffardo’s column on Wednesday in the Boston Globe about not looking at small sample sizes when deciding whether or not the Sox need to make a trade. Last week at this time, the Sox had lost 8 of 11 and the sky was falling. This week, they’ve won 6 of 7 and are unstoppable. I think Theo Esptein has to make some kind of move to ensure there aren’t any more downward trends like losing 8 of 11.

2) I’ve written about wanting to trade Wily Mo Pena because he isn’t a role player on a championship-caliber team, but games like last nights (2 doubles, a laser of a home run, 4 RBI), make me hope even more for a torn calf muscle or any season-ending injury just so the Sox can hold on to him.

3) I’d be really happy if they traded Kason Gabbard right now and wish he had pitched a lot better last night so that he could have maintained a little more traded value. I look at it this way: he’s never going to be more valuable in a trade than he is now. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who was on a roll, but eventually he’ll start to get hit. Yes, he’s a sinker-baller, but those types of pitchers are usually less consistent from season due to a high dependence on defensive help. He doesn’t project to be more than a fourth or fifth starter, so any reasonable offer for him should be enough incentive for the Sox to trade him.

So now the Yankees have closed to within eight games of the Red Sox (although the lead it was down to seven). After being eleven games back on July 1st and twelve and a half games back on June 1st, the Yankees have gained three games in one week and have their fans believing they can come back from the dead and erase the once enormous deficit. Red Sox Nation is panicking, especially after losing eight of twelve, including three in a row to lowly Kansas City and Chicago.

There are ten shopping days left until baseball’s Christmas, the July 31st trading deadline. Theo Epstein has been busy searching for ways to improve his team but has yet to find a suitable player at an acceptable price, according to the Boston media. What can Epstein really do to improve the team? The major areas that he's expected to focus on are potential upgrading the pitching staff if a blockbuster starter becomes available or if the price of relief pitching drops and upgrading the offense by adding a righthanded bat. There really aren't a lot of moving pieces on this current Sox team. Wily Mo Pena is likely to be dealt because he's not a suitable role player on a championship team, and it's possible that the bullpen could be shaken up or that Julian Tavarez will move from the rotation to the bullpen. With Epstein, the possibility of a blockbuster is always in play; such a move would likely involve Coco Crisp or Mike Lowell. Who really knows? In the past, Theo has stood pat (2006), made marginal moves (like Suppan in 2003), and made a blockbuster trade (Nomar in 2004).

The best way to analyze any trade is to gauge the expected return versus the expected cost. In baseball, there are no certainties as to who will do what in the future, but with advances in sabermetrics, predictability has become more and more accurate. Also, when adding a player to the roster, like trading Lowell, moving Youkilis to third base and trading for Mark Teixeria, it's important to understand that the team is only adding whatever extra value Teixeria might provide above and beyond what Lowell might have.

Here's how I'm going to analyze these potential trades. Baseball Prospectus published projections for each player before the season started and in the past these projections have been the best available on average; some players might outperform them, some might under perform them, but they generally work. I'll focus on the stat VORP, basically the number of runs added for hitters or prevented for pitchers above a fringe level replacement level player; a VORP of 10 is basically 1 win, 20 is 2, etc. To balance expectations with reality, I'll mix the player's actual performance level to this point with expectations to project how many runs they'll add or save over the remaining two and a half months of the season. (Briefly, the formula is [(VORP-Exp VORP) + (VORP/Game x Games Left)]/2. It's by no means perfect, but it helps account for good players in bad slumps like Jermaine Dye or extremely hot players like Mike Lowell.)

Let's look at some trades that might help the Sox. I'll focus on what they might have to give up, but I'm not going to go into great detail to project what kind of VORP Jon Lester might have 3 years from now if they trade him; I'll save that for a later post if anything significant happens.

NOTE: IF YOU WANT ME TO ANALYZE A TRADE THAT YOU DON'T SEE HERE, FEEL FREE TO ASK; THIS GOES FOR THE RED SOX OR ANY OTHER TEAM

1) Red Sox trade Coco Crisp, Michael Bowden, and Brandon Moss to White Sox for Jermaine Dye.

Dye (11.4 VORP for the rest of the season) replaces Crisp (9.49 VORP left), playing right field with JD Drew sliding over to center and the Sox presumably trading Wily Mo Pena and calling up Jacoby Ellsbury to back up Drew.
Verdict: I'd have to say no to this trade. While defense is overrated, it would certainly suffer. Adding 2 runs of production for the rest of the season probably isn't worth Bowden and Moss, not to mention Crisp over the next year and two months. Dye would be a costly rental, as he is a free agent at the end of the season.

2) Red Sox trade Crisp, Bowden, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Ken Griffey Jr.
Griffey (7.06 VORP left) does the same thing as Dye would, playing right with Drew in center.
Verdict: Absolutely not. The defense would suffer, Griffey could get hurt, and the offense would lose 2 runs of production. Also, Griffey carries a $12.5 mil contract into next season AND a $4 mil buyout in 2009.

3) Red Sox trade Crisp, Bowden, and Hansen to Arizona for Eric Byrnes.
Verdict: No thanks. The defense wouldn't suffer here, but Byrnes (3.31 VORP remaining) costs the offense 6 runs and is a rental like Dye. He certainly would bring hustle and desire to the table, but not enough of a bat, unless he continues his torrid pace.

4) Red Sox trade Wily Mo Pena and a low level prospect to Kansas City for Reggie Sanders.
Sanders (7.05 VORP left, adjusted for playing time), a battle tested playoff veteran, replaces Pena (4.4 VORP left) as a righthanded threat off the bench for Terry Francona.
Verdict: Yes. Sanders is far more reliable than Pena, so he'd make a better pinch hitter, even though his 3 runs added are not likely to be significant. Pena is a talented young hitter, but extremely raw still, and isn't a role player on a championship-caliber team. Personally, I'd like to see Pena tear a hamstring and sit on the DL for the rest of the year, but it looks like he'll be dealt.

5) Red Sox trade Pena and prospect to Oakland for Mike Piazza.
Piazza (7.32 VORP left) replaces Pena on the bench and provides insurance should Varitek go down.
Verdict: Yes. Again, 3 runs isn't much of a contribution, but Piazza is battled tested and has pop. The only problem would be that the Sox would have to drop a pitcher and bring up a 4th outfielder, because Piazza can't play the outfield.

6) Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz, Brandon Moss, and Michael Bowden to Texas for Mark Teixeira, and trade Mike Lowell in a separate deal to San Diego for Scott Linebrink.
Youkilis slides to third, Teixeira plays first, Linebrink replaces Pineiro in the pen.
Verdict: No thanks. Teixeira (12.28 VORP left) adds nearly 10 runs over Lowell (2.68 VORP left), who historically collapses in the second half. Linebrink (3.7 VORP left) prevents less than a run less than Pineiro (3.3 VORP left), but Pineiro's projection is tainted by high preseason expectations, so the gap could be more. Texieria is signed through next year, but will certainly test free agency after the season and likely won't be resigned. The Sox would be giving up way to much in my opinion to make this deal, especially given Lowell's clubhouse popularity.

7) Red Sox trade Buchholz, Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and a lower prospect to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and trade Mike Lowell for Linebrink.
Verdict: Yes, please. Cabrera (26.09 VORP left) adds 2 wins over Lowell, plus is arbitration eligible through 2009, meaning he's under the Sox control either as a player or as a huge trade asset until then. He's only 24 and according to ESPN's Buster Olney has the most RBIs at his age out of any player in the last 50 years. He's playoff tested, has won a World Series already, and his top 5 comparable players through age 23 on baseballreference.com are Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Joe Medwick, and Mickey Mantle, all Hall of Famers. The only issue with Cabrera is his hefty weight, but I think it's worth the risk. This is a Theo-type deal, one where he gives up valuable, yet unproven, assets, but gets back tremendous proven talent. Such a deal would help the Sox in the short and long term, despite the prohibitive cost in talent. The Marlins would get a lot of young talent back and face losing Cabrera anyways as he gets too expensive.

8) Red Sox trade Jon Lester to Texas for Eric Gagne.
Gagne (7.05 VORP left) effectively replaces Pineiro, preventing an additional 4 runs, but making the bullpen much more dominant.
Verdict: No. This would be a panic move, regardless of whether Lester becomes a good major league pitcher. It would be the equivalent of paying $15 for a gallon of milk, to reference Epstein's explanation of his decision to stand pat last year at the deadline.


Again, feel free to ask me to do more comparisons as the trade rumors flow in, and please comment on my analysis whether you agree or disagree.

The 48-26 Boston Red Sox are exploring the possibility of trading for Mark Buehrle? The best-winning-percentage-in-baseball Boston Red Sox are considering trading prospects or maybe even major league talent for another starting pitcher? According to rumors out of the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, the Sox are the front runners for the White Sox pitcher who has gone 4-4 with a 3.39 ERA this season, including a no-hitter. Is this potential move a good one for the Sox?

First of all, the Sox are 11 games up in the AL East over the Toronto Blue Jays and 11.5 games ahead of the again-slumping New York Yankees. With 88 games left, the Sox could play .500 ball for the rest of the season and still finish with a 92-70 record. The Blue Jays would have to go 55-33 (.625 winning percentage) to tie the Sox and the Yankees would have to go 56-33 (.629 winning percentage) if the Sox struggled and won 50% of their remaining games. Realistically, that isn’t going to happen. The Yankees may win 63 more games while losing only 26 if they catch fire (.707 winning percentage), but that would leave them with 99 wins, and the Sox would only need to go 51-37 (.579 winning percentage) to tie the Yankees. Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds Report gives the Sox a 96.7% chance of winning the division and a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs. Basically, it’s going to take a collapse of epic proportions for Boston to NOT make the playoffs. I wasn’t born in 1978 so I don’t know what that was like, but I simply don’t see them blowing a lead this big. So why are they even thinking about Mark Buehrle?

In the playoffs, teams need a #### of solid starters and a fourth serviceable starter to compete in the best of seven LCS and World Series. Looking around the AL at the contenders, here’s the top four for their rotations. These rotations are based on the assumption that currently injured players who should be returning from injury by the playoffs will do so (an admittedly risky assumption).

Boston – Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield

New York – Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina

Cleveland – Sabathia, Carmona, Byrd, Westbrook/Lee

Detroit – Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson, Rogers

Minnesota – Santana, Bonser, Silva, Garza

Los Angeles – Lackey, Weaver, Escobar, Colon

Oakland – Haren, Harden, Blanton, Gaudin

Seattle – Hernandez, Washburn, Bautista, Baek

I’d rank those teams in this order: Detroit, Boston, Oakland, Los Angeles, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Seattle. Adding Mark Buehrle to the Boston rotation and subtracting Wakefield or Julian Tavarez makes the Sox more formidable, on paper at least. Statistically, Buehrle is worth about 1.5 wins more than Tavarez over the course of the remaining season, and about 1.2 wins more than Wakefield.

Pitcher      VORP         VORP/GS            Proj # Starts Left            Proj VORP Left         Proj Wins Left

Wakefield    12.9            .86                            17                                        14.62                            1.46

  Tavarez      11.1            .85                           15                                          12.80                           1.28

Buehrle         23.4            1.8                           15                                          27                                   2.7

As previously mentioned, the division probably won’t come down to a game or two, so the Red Sox should make the playoffs regardless of whether or not they acquire Mark Buehrle.

In the 2005 playoffs, Buehrle was pretty much outstanding, including a 7 IP, 4 ER victory against the Sox. Overall, he was 2-0 with a 3.47 ERA and a WHIP of .9, including a complete game effort in which he gave up just one run and only 5 base runners. His strikeout rate was low, as he fanned just 10 in 23.3 innings, but Buehrle isn’t really a strikeout pitcher. He certainly doesn’t have the post-season pedigree of a Curt Schilling or even a Josh Beckett, but he performed well in 2005 and would seem unlikely to melt under the pressure of the playoffs.

However, given the low strikeout rate and the resulting fact that he relies on his fielders so much to make plays, Buehrle might be subject to some inconsistency in his performances because the outcomes of a large percentage of his plays are at the mercy of his fielders. He also has a tendency to give up the long ball, with totals in the mid-twenties to mid-thirties over the past 3 seasons and 13 already allowed this year. His DIPS ERA, which is based on the three outcomes a pitcher directly controls, strikeouts, walks, and home runs, is 4.27, which is 1.26 times his actual ERA. Because DIPS ERA is more stable from year to year and is more accurate in terms of predictive value, a pitcher with a DIPS ERA higher than his actual ERA tends to regress in performance and vice versa. As a point of comparison, Josh Beckett’s DIPS ERA is 2.95, or .96 times his actual ERA, so he should be fairly consistent over the course of the season. Dan Haren’s DIPS ERA is 3.39, 1.9 times his actual ERA of 1.78, so he’ll likely regress. Buehrle, therefore, is a candidate to regress, potentially making his projected wins added even lower than 1.2 over Wakefield.

Given all those statistical facts AND that he’s a free agent after the season who’s stated that he wants to play in his native St. Louis, I’d be extremely hesitant to trade anything of value for Buehrle, who could end up as an expensive rent-a-player. I would absolutely not trade Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury, and would be really hesitant to trade Daniel Bard or Michael Bowden. If the Herald’s Rob Bradford is correct is stating that Brandon Moss and Jed Lowrie might be enough to acquire Buehrle, the Sox should consider such a trade. I wouldn’t criticize them for not pulling the trigger, though.

There are, however, two scenarios that could lead the Sox to explore a trade for the Chicago lefty. One such scenario would be one much Cliff Floyd’s 2002 season. The outfielder was traded two times, once from the Florida Marlins to the Montreal Expos and a second time from the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox. Why would the Sox make such a move with Mark Buehrle? Maybe they feel like they have a good match in terms of prospects to trade with the White Sox. They could move a few prospects to Chicago now and then turn around and trade Buehrle in a few weeks for better prospects when demand increases around the trading deadline. They wouldn’t exactly be buying low and selling high; they’d be buying high and selling higher. I don’t know how realistic this scenario actually is, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility. Under a second scenario, the Sox would actually need Buehrle. Might Curt Schilling’s injury actually be more serious than expected? Jason Schmidt was sidelined with a similar injury earlier in the year, came back, and promptly blew out his arm and is out for the season. Even if Schilling’s injury isn’t as serious, the Sox could be worried and look at Buehrle as insurance in case the 40 year old Schilling doesn’t come back or isn’t effective. If this is the case, then the Sox should attempt to make a conservative trade for Mark Buehrle in which they don’t give up too much in terms of prospects.

Is Mark Buehrle that much better of an option over the course of this season than Jon Lester? That’s an unknown. Lester should strikeout more batters, but hasn’t been doing so in Pawtucket (which is likely the reason that Kason Gabbard is getting the start Tuesday night in Seattle), but is also young and relatively unproven. If he performed at the same level as last season, he’d basically be Julian Tavarez, making Buehrle a better option than Lester. If he improves over last year’s performance, Buehrle might not be worth the prospects that he would cost.

Would I, as Theo Epstein, trade for Mark Buehrle? Certainly, he makes the rotation even more formidable, but only marginally so. Unless Schilling is hurt more seriously than the Sox are letting the public know, I would probably pass on Buehrle. Even if he were traded to the Yankees, he would not be a difference maker in the AL East race. If Schilling is more seriously hurt, I’d offer a package comprised of something like Wily Mo Pena, Daniel Bard, and Brandon Moss, but not much more. That likely would not get a deal done with Chicago GM Kenny Williams, but anything else would be overpaying.