Here are my American League predictions for the upcoming season, just to get them up before the season starts. Since the National League doesn’t start until Sunday, those predictions will come later. A more detailed preview will be posted within the next week or so…

 

AL East

 

1. Boston Red Sox: Health and youth progression are the biggest questions, but the Beckett/Papelbon and Ortiz/Ramirez combinations are among the best in the game.

2. New York Yankees (Wild Card): The lineup is incredible and Chamberlain/Rivera is a great combination at the end of the game, but the starting pitching is questionable, especially with Wang’s inability to win the big game thus far in his career.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: The team has awesome pitching, a good lineup, and lots of young talent, but most of their key players have shaky health histories, which doesn’t bode well for a contending team.

4. Tampa Bay Rays: Awesome potential, but not enough to finish in the top three in the AL East. If the pitching develops, they could be tough, but most likely not for a couple of years.

5. Baltimore: If they trade Brian Roberts and then George Sherrill at the trading dead line, at least they’ll be in full rebuilding mode. There’s no middle ground with respect to rebuilding. The Orioles have blown it up, which is the right way to go.

 

AL Central

 

1. Cleveland Indians: They might be the deepest team, although their closer is still shaky and Carmona will probably regress, it’s a much more complete team than people give them credit for. Remember, they were very dangerous in 2005, got hurt in 2006, and were a game away from the World Series in 2007.

2. Detroit Tigers: The lineup could be historic, but Verlander is the only sure thing on the pitching staff. Dontrelle Willis is more likely to be worse in the AL than to improve, Bonderman has been inconsistent, but could dominate, Kenny Rogers is old, and Nate Robertson is middle of the road. The bullpen is very weak at the back end and the team has very little in terms of trade chips in the minors.

3. Chicago White Sox: Swisher is a great addition and although Orlando Cabrera is overrated, he’ll fit well as a sparkplug under Ozzie Guillen. The pitching will be key, especially the bullpen, which was horrible last year; it should be better this year.

4. Minnesota Twins: With no Santana and Liriano still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins will probably struggle. Delmon Young joins Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer in a potent offensive core, but it won’t be enough. They’ll have to rely on a very good bullpen and hope for the young pitching to develop in order to have any chance.

5. Kansas City Royals: Meche and Bannister offer a decent front end of the rotation, although they’re more likely to be 2-3 or 3-4 on a championship team. Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahan should all have good seasons this year.

 

AL West

 

1. Anaheim Angels: They’re the best of a flawed division, although if their young pitching develops, they’ll have a lot of depth. The Angels have no real shortstop, an injury-prone first basemen, and too many aging outfielders in Guerrero, Anderson, and even Matthews. Hunter is going to be overpaid, but he’s a huge upgrade in center over Matthews both offensively and defensively. Also, if Scot Shields is injured, a new setup man must emerge.

2. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners will not be a championship contender, unless they sign Barry Bonds. There are serious questions at DH (Vidro), 1B (Sexson), RF (Wilkerson), LF (Ibanez), 2B (Lopez), and SS (Betancourt). They weren’t an 88 win team based on their run differential last year and neither Bedard nor Hernandez has stayed healthy for a full season. Even if healthy, it won’t be enough.

3. Oakland Athletics: Billy Beane has to hope for a monster first half from Rich Harden so he can trade him and maybe Huston Street and Joe Blanton and continue his rebuilding process, which has drawn rave reviews so far. Otherwise, they could be an exciting team to watch develop, but that’s about it.

4. Texas Rangers: They’re strong up the middle with Young, Kinsler, and Hamilton, and Bradley could be a nice pickup if healthy. They really overpaid for Hamilton, giving up a good pitching prospect in Eldinson Volquez. Saltalamacchia should get the starting job so he can develop, but it looks like he’ll split time with Laird at best to start the season. The pitching staff won’t be pretty.

 

Playoffs

 

Red Sox over Angels: Again….

Indians over Yankees: Again…

Red Sox over Indians: Again…

 

 

AL Champions: Boston Red Sox: Again…

 

Potential swaps in playoffs: Tigers as wild card instead of Yankees

Potential surprise teams: Chicago, Oakland

Potential disappointments: Seattle, Toronto, Detroit

After listening to Red Sox fans over the past two weeks, you’d think that the Yankees had clinched the AL East. Predictions of doomsday and disaster have been pervasive since August 10, when Eric Gagne blew his first save in a Sox uniform and the Yankees finally closed the gap to a mere 5 games. None of it matters. Unlike the British, the Yankees aren’t coming. It may appear that they are, but in this case objects in the mirror are further away, not closer, than they appear.

 

Yes, the Yankees are a league best 27-12 (.692 winning percentage) since the All-Star break, but the Sox haven’t exactly been slouches themselves at 22-16 (.578 winning percentage). Right now, the Red Sox hold a 5 game lead with 37 games to play. Even if the Yankees play at the same .692 winning percentage over the rest of the season and the Red Sox play at the same .578 winning percentage, the Red Sox will finish with 96.38 wins and the Yankees with 95.6. Round those numbers and you get a virtual tie. If you factor Seattle’s .567 winning percentage post All-Star break into the equation, they’re on pace to win 92.7 games, so both the Red Sox and Yankees would make the playoffs via finishing in a tie and winning the division and Wild Card, a la 2005.

 

But there is certainly reason to believe that the Yankees won’t hold up their end of the bargain. Since the All-Star Break, the Yankees, until recently, have played a crème-puff schedule. Even including their recent series against Cleveland, Detroit, and Los Angeles of Anaheim, the Yankees opponents’ combined winning percentage is a mere .490. If you weight the winning percentages to account for more games played against certain teams (for example, they’ve played Tampa and Kansas City 8 and 7 time respectively and Cleveland only 3, so weighting them adjusts for actual times playing a team, not just summing wins and losses and dividing), that same opponents’ winning percentage drops to .468. During the same time period, the Red Sox have played many of the same opponents, but the numbers of times they’ve played those opponents have differed. The Yankees played Kansas City seven times and Los Angeles of Anaheim once, while the Red Sox played Kansas City three times and Los Angeles of Anaheim seven. The Red Sox’ opponents’ winning percentage was .494 and .490 weighted. Over the course of a season, the difference in the number of wins between the Red Sox’ opponents and Yankees’ opponents is three wins, so in essence the Yankees have played only 1.5 games better than the Red Sox since the break, not the 4.5 games that the standings would indicate.

 

Additionally, the Yankees’ schedule moving forward is going to be harder than the Red Sox’ schedule. Both teams have 37 games left to play, including six head-to-head battles. The Yankees’ opponents’ normal winning percentage is .513 and .503 weighted. The Red Sox’ opponents’ normal winning percentage is .479 and .472 weighted. Over the course of a season, Yankee opponents would win 5 games more than Red Sox opponents. Think about that: the Yankees’ schedule is 5 games more difficult than the Sox’, as wide as the current gap between the Red Sox and Yankees. This means that in order to tie the Red Sox, the Yankees will have to play the equivalent of ten games better over the remaining 37 due to their schedule. Do you STILL think they Yankees are coming?

 

Taking the idea even further, the Yankees have scored an absurd 271 runs since the All Star Break for an average of 7.13 runs per game; wow! Looking at their schedule, it might not be a stretch to say that the Yankees, although they have a terrific offense, might be benefiting from poor pitching. Also, their pitching staff has given up 4.84 runs per game in the same time, against the same bad teams. Granted, bad teams are more often characterized by bad pitching than bad hitting (see Tampa Bay), but in general they are poor in all areas, not just pitching. This would mean that the 4.84 runs per game the Yankees have been allowing might be even higher against better teams while their runs scored might be lower. Coincidently, the Sox have been averaging 5.31 runs scored per game and 4.05 runs allowed per game since the break.

 

If it’s not already apparent that the Yankees will regress over the final 37 games, here’s another piece of information that Red Sox fans can use to silence those Yankee fans in their lives. This information will likely satisfy even those fans or writers who despise statistics and who would prefer to rely on history. Since 1996, as Yankees fans will surely boast, the Red Sox have not finished ahead of the Yankees. In that eleven year span, the Yankees have averaged a 98-64 record compared to the Red Sox’ 89-73. On August 21, the Yankees have averaged a six game lead over the Sox. By the time the season has ended, the Yankees have averaged a nine game lead over the Sox, meaning they expand their lead by an average of three games from August 21 until the end of the season. Three games hardly seems like the late-August and September swoon that the Red Sox are famous for. Even if history repeats itself, the Yankees will finish two games back.

 

Yankees fans tend to like to rely on history. When my friends and I were at Yankee Stadium in late May watching the Yankees beat the Sox to narrow the Sox’ lead to nine games Yankee fans didn’t want to hear about 2004 or the nine game hole they were in. They only wanted to fall back on the 26 rings their team had won up through 2001 and how the Red Sox hadn’t won a division title since 1995.

 

Sox fans, get ready to tell your Yankee-loving friends where to stick those rings, ‘cause unlike the British, the Yankees aren’t coming.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Red Sox have the best pitching staff in the AL by far. Based on a formula I’ve developed, the Sox have a 75% chance of making the playoffs from the pitching side of the equation, highest in the AL.

The popular thought in baseball in recent years has been that offense can carry a team through the regular season, but that pitching wins in October. While the actual verity of this thought is debatable (Baseball Prospectus found that only a pitching staff’s strikeout rate, the closers’ wins added (WXRL), and the defense’s quality (FRAA or Fielding Runs added) correlate directly with postseason glory), having very good pitching certainly can hide many flaws that an otherwise good team might have.

Three stats that can summarize the quality of a team’s pitching are VORP, WXRL, and SNLVAR (all of which come from Baseball Prospectus). Allow me to explain in brief what each of these stats means. Bear with me; this will be useful in discussing the 2007 AL pennant race.

VORP (value over replacement player) measures the number of runs a team’s pitching staff (or pitchers individually) prevents beyond replacement level, or basically a staff made up of AAA pitchers. It measures the overall quality of the pitching staff. The higher the VORP, measured in runs, the better the staff. 10 runs is equal to a win, and a team with a combined offensive and defensive VORP of zero would win 48 games in a season. The highest team VORP in the Wild Card era (1995-present) was accumulated by the 1999 Boston Red Sox (361.4 VORP), who helped by one of the greatest pitching performances in baseball history turned in by Pedro Martinez (102.3 all by himself).

WXRL (expected wins added beyond replacement level) is a measure of how many wins a staff adds beyond that of a AAA staff as measured by change in win expectancy, adjusted for the quality of the opposing lineup. It’s a measure of the effectiveness of a team’s bullpen. Win expectancy is a concept that measures a team’s chances of winning a game based on a change in out, base runner situation, inning, and score. For example, based on 2006 play-by-play data, the home team batting in the bottom of the 8th inning with runners on first and second with one out trailing by 1 run had a .43 (or 43%) chance of winning the game. If the opposing pitcher records an out, so now that the home team is batting in the bottom of the 8th inning with runners on first and second with two outs trailing by 1 run, the team has only a .3 (30%) chance of winning the game. The pitcher who records the out is credited with the difference, .13 (.43-.3) between the probability of victory. He has effectively reduced the opposing team’s chance of winning the game by 13%. Outs recorded with large differences in the score or early in games have less value than those late in close games under this system. Over the course of the season, WXRL is added and subtracted until a total is reached; the higher the total is the better the team’s bullpen is. The highest total since 1995 was the 2003 LA Dodgers with 21.78, anchored by a historic season by Eric Gagne (9.23 WXRL).

SNLVAR (support neutral lineup adjusted value above replacement) measures the number of wins added by a starting pitcher above a AAA pitcher after making all pitchers have the same run support and face the same quality of opponent. It measures the quality of a team’s starting pitching staff. It places all pitchers on a level playing field, and is measured in wins. The highest SNLVAR since 1995 as a team was recorded by the 1997 Atlanta Braves (33.6), anchored by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.

Now that the explanation is all out of the way, if I haven’t lost you yet, we can look at the data since 1995. Since 1995, teams who rank in the top five in VORP, WXRL, or SNLVAR reach the playoffs 66% of the time. Teams ranking in the top three in the same categories reach the playoffs 74% of the time. A look at the data for the top 5 spots:

Click Here for Chart

Being anywhere in the top 5 of any of these pitching categories gives a team a strong chance of making the playoffs.

How does this relate to the 2007 AL playoff race? We can make a formula that weighs a team’s pitching playoff chances by factoring in their rank in all three categories and the playoff chances in those categories. The data I’m using here is the same as above. The formula that I’m going to use is as follows:

[VORP Rank x Playoff Chance % + WXRL Rank x Playoff Chance % + SNLVAR Rank x Playoff Chance %]/3= Pitching Playoff Score

Note: There are certainly flaws in this system, such as a team ranking 20th having a better chance of making the playoffs than a team ranking 17th. This would probably be fixed using more years of data, but the general guiding principle is still worthwhile.

Ranking only the AL contenders, we get the following chart:

Click Here for Chart

The list really isn’t all that surprising. Let’s analyze each staff, focusing on the starters, setup man, and closer to see how they look going forward towards October.

Boston - Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon

The Sox boast the league’s best pitching staff and are statistically second only to San Diego in all of baseball. The rotation is strong, especially the front end, where they have two young aces and one aging ace with a great playoff track record. Although Okajima has never pitched this much in his career, he’s unlikely to be burned out before October due to suitable replacements in Eric Gagne, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, and potentially Clay Buchholz. Papelbon has pitched far fewer innings this year than last and is healthy; he’s been lights out for most of the season.

Minnesota – Johan Santana, #### Bonser, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Matt Garza, Pat Neshek/Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan

Minnesota’s staff has been carried by Johan Santana and the back end of the bullpen, Nathan, Neshek, and Guerrier. Otherwise, they haven’t been spectacular individually, only as a unit. Not having Francisco Liraino really has hurt them this year. At 6.5 games behind, Liriano’s presence could have cut that deficit much lower, perhaps even to the point that they’d have been buyers and not sellers at the trading deadline.

Los Angeles of Anaheim – John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, Francisco Rodriguez

Lackey and Escobar have been two of the top pitchers in the league this season and offer no real reason to doubt them going forward. Weaver’s been inconsistent because of injuries, but overall has been an above average third starter. Ervin Santana, whom the Angels refused to trade in a deal for Miguel Tejada only a year ago, was so bad that he was demoted to AAA for a few starts. Saunders’ performance as a fifth starter has given the Angels no reason to worry, and Shields and K-Rod have been as good as ever. This would definitely be a scary pitching staff to face in October.

Seattle – Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, Horatio Ramirez, George Sherrill, JJ Putz

Hernandez has shown the same flashes of greatness this season while also being inconsistent and injured. The starting staff, with the exception of Ramirez, has pitched well since the beginning of July. Sherrill has been scary to watch as a Red Sox fan, and Putz has been dominant.

Cleveland – CC Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, Rafael Betancourt, Joe Borowski

Sabathia, Carmona, and Byrd make for a formidable front three, especially in a short playoff series. Lee has been awful this year, earning himself a demotion to the minors. While Betancourt has been outstanding (along with Rafael Perez), the rest of the bullpen is a clear weakness and could be a fatal flaw come October.

Detroit – Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers, Andrew Miller/Chad Durbin, Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya, Todd Jones

Although injury riddled, Detroit has been pretty bad in the pitching department since the All Star break. Their team ERA of 5.57 is second worst in all of baseball during that span. Obviously, this is a talented staff and should turn things around. If healthy, they’d be tough to beat in a short series, as the A’s and Yankees can attest.

New York – Chien-Ming Wang, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera

Let’s get this out of the way: a Chamberlain and Rivera combo at the end of games is a scary thought for Red Sox fans everywhere. Also, most of this staff is playoff tested, so their experience is a positive for them. However, 3/5 of the rotation is older than 35, and Hughes, tremendously talented, has pitched only a handful of games. Their post-All Star break ERA: 4.56, 19th in baseball. Let’s not kid ourselves: the Yankees could win with pitching if it gets hot, but are winning with offense. No team in recent memory has slugged their way to a championship.

Keep in mind that pitching is only part of the equation when evaluating a team. Plenty of teams with great pitching but poor offenses have failed to reach the postseason.

Next time, I’ll look into how the offenses rate and how the bats might determine who's playing in October and who's golfing.

If the game is on the line and you’re a typical Red Sox fan, who do you want coming to the plate? David Ortiz. (Or if you're a typical Yankees fan, who don't you want coming up?) What about this season? Do you still feel that way? Should you?

When most Red Sox fans think of David Ortiz, they think of home runs, a big smile, and clutch, game-winning at-bats. In the past, such a description of Ortiz was very accurate, but 2007 has been a strange season for Ortiz. He’#### only 19 home runs after blasting a franchise record 54 last year, he’s seen his smile disappear at times because of a knee injury that might require surgery after the season and a sore shoulder he hurt flopping into second base, and he’s failed in those clutch situations that he seemed to be thrive on in the past.

Ortiz’s total production, as measured by VORP, hasn’t fallen too much. Since the season isn’t over yet, it’s more useful to compare his VORP rate (VORPr) because it’s easier to compare rate of production than to look at 75% of this season versus 100% of last season and try to compare those totals. Last season, Ortiz produced .494 runs per game, good for 7th in all of baseball. This year, he’s dropped off only slightly to .486 runs per game, 10th in all of baseball. That’s only a difference of 2 runs over the course of an entire season, so for all the fuss about Oritz’ production being doing significantly, it’s really not.

The reason Ortiz’ production hasn’t plummeted is that despite a drop in his 2006 SLG from .636 (4th overall) to 2007’s .560 (14th overall), his 2006 OBP of .413 (15th overall) has climbed all the way to .431 (3rd overall) in 2007. Fans are obsessed with power, and slugging percentage is indicative of power, so fans cringe when they see a drop in SLG. Fans should realize that OBP is more important than SLG; studies, beginning with Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, have repeatedly proven that 1 point in OBP is worth 3 points in SLG. Because on base percentage is more important to scoring runs than slugging percentage, Ortiz has nearly managed to balance his drop in SLG with an increase in OBP. While home runs are sexy, Ortiz has still been helping the team despite not hitting as many as he has in the past. This is probably due in large part to his nagging injuries that may be causing some of the balls he’#### to travel to the warning track instead of over the wall. Regardless, Ortiz has been productive and fans shouldn’t worry so much about his home run totals and slugging percentage being down.

 In today’s Boston Globe, Gordon Edes wrote about Big Papi's struggles in clutch situations this season.

 The idea of clutch has long been dismissed in sabermetric circles. The general argument is that numbers in the clutch are skewed either positively or negatively because of a small sample size. When the number of at bats is so low, generally around 30 or so for a season, a difference of three hits in clutch situations leads to a difference of .100 in AVG. While a number of players seem to always come through, it’s generally more perception than reality. Baseball Prospectus did a study on clutch hitting in their Baseball Between the Numbers and found that if anybody is clutch, it’s generally solid contact hitters who have high averages for their careers in all situations, like Mark Grace, formerly of the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. In general, clutch stats will regress towards overall career totals over time. Theo Epstein echoed this sentiment recently when asked about the Sox failure to hit with runners in scoring position; his response was something along the lines of saying that over time, the team would hit in such situations and things would even out.

(Personally, I agree with sabermetricians that clutch stats are overrated because of the small sample size. Mathematically, there’s really no way around that fact. However, I do think that there is an indefinable clutchness surrounding some players. It probably isn’t quantifiable, which is disappointing, but perhaps the aura surrounding a player like Ortiz is enough to shift the balance of power in his favor? Maybe fear inspired by some players actually boosts their performance or hinders that of their opponents? I’m not sure, but it’s a thought.)

 In 2007, Ortiz is hitting a mere .154 with an OPS of .385 in 26 at bats in which the Red Sox have been trailing in a game in the 7th inning or later with at least one man on base when Ortiz came to the plate. He has no home runs and just 2 RBI. In his 4 and a half years with the Red Sox, he has hit 8 home runs, driven in 51, and batted .275 with an OPS of .786 in such situations. This year’s numbers should come as no surprise. Anyone who’s watched the Sox this year has probably seen a situation in which Ortiz has failed to deliver the game tying or game winning hit when everybody expected him to do so. However, over the course of his career, the numbers dictate that this year’s clutch performances aren’t too far from his Sox career norms. Fans were spoiled by last season’s ridiculous 4 home run, 18 RBI, 1.000 OPS performance in such situations. If Ortiz was matching his career averages in clutch situations right now, fans would still be disappointed if viewed in the context of last year’s performance. Additionally, the perception of Ortiz as clutch has probably developed because his biggest hits have come on the biggest stage, the playoffs.

 What does all of this mean?

 1)      Sox fans should stop worrying about Ortiz’ production. He’s producing, he’ll be fine, and the offense will be fine.

2)      Ortiz’ injuries are probably sapping his power, but see #1. Next season, the power will likely be back.

3)      Clutch statistics are overrated, so take them with a grain of salt. Maybe perception is greater than reality in this case. Don’t worry about his low production in the clutch right now because it’ll even out.

 
Questions/Comments? Does anybody have a unique view on the clutch?

Eric Gagne makes the Red Sox a much better team than they had been before the trade. The Gagne trade won’t really add too many additional wins to the team over the course of the regular season, but it will make them a very difficult team to beat come October. This was a move made with the playoffs in mind, much like the Dave Roberts deal in 2004.

Theo Epstein deserves a lot of credit for somehow managing to pull off trading Kason Gabbard (a career 5th starter), David Murphy (a career 4th outfielder), and Engel Beltre (17 years old) for one of the most coveted assets on the marker at the trading deadline. Say what you want about Theo and his free agent signings; he knows how to make trades.

I’m still at a loss to explain how Texas only managed to get the Sox’ package and nothing better. (Note: Not only did he get Gagne, but he got probably two picks in the first two rounds of next year’s draft from the team that will sign Gagne this off-season under the CBA compensation rules. The biggest strength of the Epstein regime has to be his drafting. See Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, et al., and he put himself in a position to make more quality choices next June.) It’s possible that Texas had to accept less from the Sox due to the money they had to pay Gagne to get him to wave his no trade clause. The overall cost in prospects and dollars could be viewed as equaling the overall cost of the Yankees giving up Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, whom Texas allegedly wanted. 

The trade is even more interesting and appealing to Sox fans because it’s pretty evident that the Yankees’ needed bullpen help much more than the Sox, but actually dumped Scott Proctor rather than adding a reliever. Granted, Joba Chamberlain should be up and in the Mariano Rivera/ Jonathan Papelbon setup role within a week or so, but he’s still going to be a rookie performing in the heat of a playoff race, so a great performance isn’t guaranteed, though I wouldn’t bet against it. Detroit also had interest in Gagne; it was widely predicted that they’d acquire Gagne and essentially book their ticket to the World Series. Their interest probably faded due to the high asking price and also the impending returns of Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney.

One of my readers asked me to run Gagne through my trade machine to see how much he’d improve the Red Sox. I ran him through before yesterday’s outing, so basically using his Texas statistics. 

The Trade: Red Sox trade David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, and Engel Beltre to Texas for Eric Gagne. Curt Schilling replaces Gabbard in the rotation; Gagne replaces Kyle Snyder or Javier Lopez in the bullpen.  

In his last full season, 2004 with Los Angeles, Gagne pitched 26 times from August 1 through the end of the season. Even though he was a closer then and closers are more likely to pitch in pennant races than non-closers, the Sox, who have no obligations to Gagne after the season, will probably rely more heavily on him than Jonathan Papelbon because they have Papelbon under control for at least 3 or 4 more years. Projecting 26 appearances out of Gagne using the method that I had described in previous posts, he should have a VORP of 8 over the rest of the season. By itself, 8 VORP isn’t even a win, but remember the trickle down effect.

Gagne should be 7 run improvement over Javier Lopez or a 6 run improvement over Kyle Snyder. The improvement in the trade comes from Schilling (projected 17 VORP remaining) replacing Gabbard (projected 4.5 VORP remaining). This move would have happened anyways, but Schilling’s return allowed the Sox to deal from a position of strength and complete the trade for Gagne using Gabbard, so the two are not completely unrelated.

 By combining the additions of Gagne and Schilling with the departures of Snyder/Lopez and Gabbard, the Sox should gain about 20 VORP over the remainder of the season, or about 2 additional wins. While they might not really need the two wins to win the division, it adds a nice insurance policy.

I have yet to hear of a Red Sox trade rumor that would make them a significantly better team. Adding Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye, Ty Wigginton, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will not make the team much better overall. Ignoring even the cost of acquiring one of these players in terms of players and prospects, you can only consider the marginal benefit of adding the player, not the player’s overall stats.

The marginal benefit of player added = performance of [player added – player replaced]. This formula applies however you want to measure performance, whether it be traditionally (like using home runs) or sabermetrically (like VORP), as I choose to do. For example, adding a Teixeira, who is on pace for 23 home runs, would add 8 home runs if he replaced Kevin Youkilis (projected 15 HR), but cost a home run if Youkilis slide over to third and Mike Lowell (projected 24 HR) was replaced.

There really haven’t been any outstanding trade rumors involving the Sox in the past few days, but a few new names have popped up, so I’ll analyze those deals (more to come as the rumors hopefully start to fly).

1) Red Sox trade Michael Bowden, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn

Dunn plays first base, Youkilis plays third base, and the Sox trade Lowell in a separate deal for prospects.

Verdict: No thanks. Dunn (projected 17.28 VORP remaining) would add almost two wins over Mike Lowell, but the asking price for Dunn is reportedly steep right now. If the price were to drop to something like Bowden and Moss/David Murphy, then I’d probably think about pulling the trigger. However, Dunn’s contract allows him to opt out after this year if he’s traded, and he only has one more year either way, so he could be a costly rental in terms of prospects surrendered.

Quick notes:

1) I completely agree with Nick Caffardo’s column on Wednesday in the Boston Globe about not looking at small sample sizes when deciding whether or not the Sox need to make a trade. Last week at this time, the Sox had lost 8 of 11 and the sky was falling. This week, they’ve won 6 of 7 and are unstoppable. I think Theo Esptein has to make some kind of move to ensure there aren’t any more downward trends like losing 8 of 11.

2) I’ve written about wanting to trade Wily Mo Pena because he isn’t a role player on a championship-caliber team, but games like last nights (2 doubles, a laser of a home run, 4 RBI), make me hope even more for a torn calf muscle or any season-ending injury just so the Sox can hold on to him.

3) I’d be really happy if they traded Kason Gabbard right now and wish he had pitched a lot better last night so that he could have maintained a little more traded value. I look at it this way: he’s never going to be more valuable in a trade than he is now. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who was on a roll, but eventually he’ll start to get hit. Yes, he’s a sinker-baller, but those types of pitchers are usually less consistent from season due to a high dependence on defensive help. He doesn’t project to be more than a fourth or fifth starter, so any reasonable offer for him should be enough incentive for the Sox to trade him.

So now the Yankees have closed to within eight games of the Red Sox (although the lead it was down to seven). After being eleven games back on July 1st and twelve and a half games back on June 1st, the Yankees have gained three games in one week and have their fans believing they can come back from the dead and erase the once enormous deficit. Red Sox Nation is panicking, especially after losing eight of twelve, including three in a row to lowly Kansas City and Chicago.

There are ten shopping days left until baseball’s Christmas, the July 31st trading deadline. Theo Epstein has been busy searching for ways to improve his team but has yet to find a suitable player at an acceptable price, according to the Boston media. What can Epstein really do to improve the team? The major areas that he's expected to focus on are potential upgrading the pitching staff if a blockbuster starter becomes available or if the price of relief pitching drops and upgrading the offense by adding a righthanded bat. There really aren't a lot of moving pieces on this current Sox team. Wily Mo Pena is likely to be dealt because he's not a suitable role player on a championship team, and it's possible that the bullpen could be shaken up or that Julian Tavarez will move from the rotation to the bullpen. With Epstein, the possibility of a blockbuster is always in play; such a move would likely involve Coco Crisp or Mike Lowell. Who really knows? In the past, Theo has stood pat (2006), made marginal moves (like Suppan in 2003), and made a blockbuster trade (Nomar in 2004).

The best way to analyze any trade is to gauge the expected return versus the expected cost. In baseball, there are no certainties as to who will do what in the future, but with advances in sabermetrics, predictability has become more and more accurate. Also, when adding a player to the roster, like trading Lowell, moving Youkilis to third base and trading for Mark Teixeria, it's important to understand that the team is only adding whatever extra value Teixeria might provide above and beyond what Lowell might have.

Here's how I'm going to analyze these potential trades. Baseball Prospectus published projections for each player before the season started and in the past these projections have been the best available on average; some players might outperform them, some might under perform them, but they generally work. I'll focus on the stat VORP, basically the number of runs added for hitters or prevented for pitchers above a fringe level replacement level player; a VORP of 10 is basically 1 win, 20 is 2, etc. To balance expectations with reality, I'll mix the player's actual performance level to this point with expectations to project how many runs they'll add or save over the remaining two and a half months of the season. (Briefly, the formula is [(VORP-Exp VORP) + (VORP/Game x Games Left)]/2. It's by no means perfect, but it helps account for good players in bad slumps like Jermaine Dye or extremely hot players like Mike Lowell.)

Let's look at some trades that might help the Sox. I'll focus on what they might have to give up, but I'm not going to go into great detail to project what kind of VORP Jon Lester might have 3 years from now if they trade him; I'll save that for a later post if anything significant happens.

NOTE: IF YOU WANT ME TO ANALYZE A TRADE THAT YOU DON'T SEE HERE, FEEL FREE TO ASK; THIS GOES FOR THE RED SOX OR ANY OTHER TEAM

1) Red Sox trade Coco Crisp, Michael Bowden, and Brandon Moss to White Sox for Jermaine Dye.

Dye (11.4 VORP for the rest of the season) replaces Crisp (9.49 VORP left), playing right field with JD Drew sliding over to center and the Sox presumably trading Wily Mo Pena and calling up Jacoby Ellsbury to back up Drew.
Verdict: I'd have to say no to this trade. While defense is overrated, it would certainly suffer. Adding 2 runs of production for the rest of the season probably isn't worth Bowden and Moss, not to mention Crisp over the next year and two months. Dye would be a costly rental, as he is a free agent at the end of the season.

2) Red Sox trade Crisp, Bowden, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Ken Griffey Jr.
Griffey (7.06 VORP left) does the same thing as Dye would, playing right with Drew in center.
Verdict: Absolutely not. The defense would suffer, Griffey could get hurt, and the offense would lose 2 runs of production. Also, Griffey carries a $12.5 mil contract into next season AND a $4 mil buyout in 2009.

3) Red Sox trade Crisp, Bowden, and Hansen to Arizona for Eric Byrnes.
Verdict: No thanks. The defense wouldn't suffer here, but Byrnes (3.31 VORP remaining) costs the offense 6 runs and is a rental like Dye. He certainly would bring hustle and desire to the table, but not enough of a bat, unless he continues his torrid pace.

4) Red Sox trade Wily Mo Pena and a low level prospect to Kansas City for Reggie Sanders.
Sanders (7.05 VORP left, adjusted for playing time), a battle tested playoff veteran, replaces Pena (4.4 VORP left) as a righthanded threat off the bench for Terry Francona.
Verdict: Yes. Sanders is far more reliable than Pena, so he'd make a better pinch hitter, even though his 3 runs added are not likely to be significant. Pena is a talented young hitter, but extremely raw still, and isn't a role player on a championship-caliber team. Personally, I'd like to see Pena tear a hamstring and sit on the DL for the rest of the year, but it looks like he'll be dealt.

5) Red Sox trade Pena and prospect to Oakland for Mike Piazza.
Piazza (7.32 VORP left) replaces Pena on the bench and provides insurance should Varitek go down.
Verdict: Yes. Again, 3 runs isn't much of a contribution, but Piazza is battled tested and has pop. The only problem would be that the Sox would have to drop a pitcher and bring up a 4th outfielder, because Piazza can't play the outfield.

6) Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz, Brandon Moss, and Michael Bowden to Texas for Mark Teixeira, and trade Mike Lowell in a separate deal to San Diego for Scott Linebrink.
Youkilis slides to third, Teixeira plays first, Linebrink replaces Pineiro in the pen.
Verdict: No thanks. Teixeira (12.28 VORP left) adds nearly 10 runs over Lowell (2.68 VORP left), who historically collapses in the second half. Linebrink (3.7 VORP left) prevents less than a run less than Pineiro (3.3 VORP left), but Pineiro's projection is tainted by high preseason expectations, so the gap could be more. Texieria is signed through next year, but will certainly test free agency after the season and likely won't be resigned. The Sox would be giving up way to much in my opinion to make this deal, especially given Lowell's clubhouse popularity.

7) Red Sox trade Buchholz, Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and a lower prospect to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and trade Mike Lowell for Linebrink.
Verdict: Yes, please. Cabrera (26.09 VORP left) adds 2 wins over Lowell, plus is arbitration eligible through 2009, meaning he's under the Sox control either as a player or as a huge trade asset until then. He's only 24 and according to ESPN's Buster Olney has the most RBIs at his age out of any player in the last 50 years. He's playoff tested, has won a World Series already, and his top 5 comparable players through age 23 on baseballreference.com are Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Joe Medwick, and Mickey Mantle, all Hall of Famers. The only issue with Cabrera is his hefty weight, but I think it's worth the risk. This is a Theo-type deal, one where he gives up valuable, yet unproven, assets, but gets back tremendous proven talent. Such a deal would help the Sox in the short and long term, despite the prohibitive cost in talent. The Marlins would get a lot of young talent back and face losing Cabrera anyways as he gets too expensive.

8) Red Sox trade Jon Lester to Texas for Eric Gagne.
Gagne (7.05 VORP left) effectively replaces Pineiro, preventing an additional 4 runs, but making the bullpen much more dominant.
Verdict: No. This would be a panic move, regardless of whether Lester becomes a good major league pitcher. It would be the equivalent of paying $15 for a gallon of milk, to reference Epstein's explanation of his decision to stand pat last year at the deadline.


Again, feel free to ask me to do more comparisons as the trade rumors flow in, and please comment on my analysis whether you agree or disagree.

 

 

The trading deadline is approaching and after having the best record in baseball almost the entire first half, the Red Sox have seemed to struggle recently. The rest of the American League’s elite teams have gained ground on them, as Detroit, Los Angeles of Anaheim, Cleveland, and Seattle are all within at least three games of the Sox in the standings. While they still possess a 10 game lead over both the Yankees and Toronto, it’s evident that the Sox need to start to play better in order to avoid any potential late summer swoon. There is really no need for a pennant race in September with the Yankees, who I still feel have a strong run left in them (although I hope I’m wrong). Realistically, it would take a historic collapse for the Yankees to catch the Sox, but with the trading deadline approaching, Theo Epstein should be looking at putting the final touches on a World Series-caliber team.

 

Looking back at the Epstein regime’s trade track record, he has made two main types of trades. First, he has tweaked the team slightly in order to prepare for a playoff run. Examples of this type of trade include trading for Scott Williamson in 2003, Dave Roberts in 2004, and Tony Graffanino in 2005. All three trades were made to put the finishing touches on highly competitive ball clubs. Second, he has made blockbusters. Examples are Curt Schilling in the off season between 2003 and 2004, Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, and Josh Beckett prior to 2006. (He’s also made the requisite dump of unhappy players, like Shea Hillenbrand in 2003, and Jay Payton in 2005, but those trades don’t really apply here.) Epstein has consistently refused to take on huge contracts through trades (like refusing to trade for Bobby Abreu in 2006) or to mortgage the future to win now (like trading the farm system for Andruw Jones in 2006). What will Epstein do this season?

 

It appears as though he has a few options that he can explore, given the strength of the farm system. The most talked about areas marked for improvement are right handed setup man and fourth outfielder. Also, starting pitching has been mentioned as a possible need, depending on Curt Schilling’s long-term health, and upgrading the offense might be explored.

 

The Sox are highly unlikely to trade for a right handed setup man. Brad Lidge, Eric Gagne, Akinori Otsuka, et al, are in high demand, and whoever trades for them will be forced to overpay. Last year, Epstein refused to overpay for overpriced assets, and while it may have been more a product of seeing too many holes in the team, I believe he truly does not want to overpay for any asset. It is more likely that the Sox will use Manny Delcarmen or another internal option (like Clay Buchholz, whom I wrote about before, and now is being discussed by WEEI, Peter Gammons, and the Boston Globe, as a potential setup man) to fill their need than overpaying for a Lidge or Gagne.

 

Wily Mo Pena has been deemed useless by Sox fans everywhere and the Sox have been said to be willing to trade him in the right package. He represents an extremely frustrating mix of tantalizing power potential (26 HR in 336 AB in 2004) and abysmal strikeout numbers (career 427 strikeouts in 1226 AB) and fielding skills. He’s an asset to a young and upcoming team, but a poor fit for this current Sox team. I don’t want to seem him traded because of his potential, but a more adept fourth outfielder, someone in the Dave Roberts or Gabe Kapler mold, is needed. Jacoby Ellsbury could fit the role, but the Sox would prefer the player hit right-handed because they already have Eric Hinske and Alex Cora off the bench as left-handed hitters.

 

There probably isn’t much on the starting pitching market that would represent an upgrade over what the Sox can internally produce. Epstein traded 2006 NL Batting Champ Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan in 2003 and Suppan was horrible, failing to make the postseason roster. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Kasson Gabbard, and Devern Hansack represent cheaper and potentially better alternatives. Names like Rich Harden and Roy Oswalt have been tossed around, but Harden is oft injured and Oswalt signed a 5 year contract extension last August with a full no trade clause. Mark Buehrle also just signed a contract extension.

 

So where does that leave the Sox? I think they’ll make a small trade for a fourth outfielder and also make a blockbuster move. Epstein has to see this team as having a good chance to contend for the World Series and might go for the jugular. He will not, however, trade for a free-agent-to-be, or a big contract. He’ll trade for Florida’s Miguel Cabrera.

 

Miguel Cabrera is in his fourth year of major league service and is going to be eligible for arbitration following the season. Along with Dontrelle Willis and Hanley Ramirez, Cabrera is a cornerstone of the franchise, but the Marlins won’t be able to afford both Willis and Cabrera as they enter arbitrations in which they’ll come close to $10,000,000. One player has to go before the start of 2008, especially since Florida has been unable to obtain a new stadium deal. Because Willis is a left-handed pitcher and is so charismatic, it’s unlikely he’ll be moved. That leaves Cabrera, who could get the next A-Rod/Manny Ramirez contract.

 

Only 24 years old, Cabrera has averaged 31 HR, 116 RBI, .312 AVG, .385 OBP, and .541 SLG over 4 and a half seasons. Over the past three seasons, his VORP is 190.4, good for 19 wins. This year, his VORP is 39.5 and he has 18 HR and 61 RBI along with a .324 AVG, .393 OBP, and .576 SLG. He’d be the Red Sox best offensive player so far this year statistically. Cabrera’s early career numbers are very similar to those of Manny Ramirez, a hitter to whom he is often compared. The only knocks on Cabrera are that he’s a little bit out of shape and has shown questionable drive, though he did have 4 home runs in the 2003 playoffs at age 20, including one off of Roger Clemens in the World Series. He’d fit beautifully in a Red Sox lineup that might look like this: Drew, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez, Cabrera, Varitek, Pedroia, Crisp, Lugo. He’d replace Mike Lowell, who is an impending free agent and could be moved in another trade to the Twins or Dodgers.

By subtracting Lowell’s projected VORP from Cabrera’s, it’s likely that Cabrera would add 1.3 wins to the Sox over the rest of the regular season. Those wins aren’t needed, but would give the Sox a much more formidable lineup. Also, Cabrera is entering his prime after having done what only future Hall of Famers have done in his first 5 seasons, and is under contract through 2009, giving the Sox 2.5 seasons with him as a player or an incredible trade asset before his hits free agency.

 

What would it cost the Sox to get Cabrera? Probably a package including Michael Bowden, Craig Hansen, Jon Lester/Clay Buchholz, David Murphy/Brandon Moss, or even Jacoby Ellsbury. The Marlins could retool for an even brighter future with so many high level prospects, and would be in a better financial situation. The price would be undoubtedly steep, maybe leaving the farm system barren, but could potentially be worth it. A deal like this would be very similar to the Josh Beckett trade; the Sox would get great young talent in return for potentially great young talent. I honestly think a deal like this could happen if Florida decides to trade Cabrera. Undoubtedly, may other teams would try to show interest, including both Los Angeles teams, who are stacked in terms of prospects.

 

The Sox don’t have to do much of anything at the trading deadline, but could have the potential to make a huge blockbuster if Miguel Cabrera becomes available. The price would be steep, but the rewards could be great. A trade for Cabrera would have all the makings of a typical Epstein deal because it trades unproven assets for a more established asset. Though it would decimate the upper levels of the farm system, Cabrera is only 24 and plays a position in which there is no minor league depth.

 

 I’m probably living in a fantasy world, but I think this trade could be a win-win trade much like Beckett/Lowell for Hanley Ramirez and the rest. 

 

Would you trade Bowden, Hansen, Lester/Buchholz, Murphy/Moss or Ellsbury for Miguel Cabrera?

The 48-26 Boston Red Sox are exploring the possibility of trading for Mark Buehrle? The best-winning-percentage-in-baseball Boston Red Sox are considering trading prospects or maybe even major league talent for another starting pitcher? According to rumors out of the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, the Sox are the front runners for the White Sox pitcher who has gone 4-4 with a 3.39 ERA this season, including a no-hitter. Is this potential move a good one for the Sox?

First of all, the Sox are 11 games up in the AL East over the Toronto Blue Jays and 11.5 games ahead of the again-slumping New York Yankees. With 88 games left, the Sox could play .500 ball for the rest of the season and still finish with a 92-70 record. The Blue Jays would have to go 55-33 (.625 winning percentage) to tie the Sox and the Yankees would have to go 56-33 (.629 winning percentage) if the Sox struggled and won 50% of their remaining games. Realistically, that isn’t going to happen. The Yankees may win 63 more games while losing only 26 if they catch fire (.707 winning percentage), but that would leave them with 99 wins, and the Sox would only need to go 51-37 (.579 winning percentage) to tie the Yankees. Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds Report gives the Sox a 96.7% chance of winning the division and a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs. Basically, it’s going to take a collapse of epic proportions for Boston to NOT make the playoffs. I wasn’t born in 1978 so I don’t know what that was like, but I simply don’t see them blowing a lead this big. So why are they even thinking about Mark Buehrle?

In the playoffs, teams need a #### of solid starters and a fourth serviceable starter to compete in the best of seven LCS and World Series. Looking around the AL at the contenders, here’s the top four for their rotations. These rotations are based on the assumption that currently injured players who should be returning from injury by the playoffs will do so (an admittedly risky assumption).

Boston – Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Wakefield

New York – Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina

Cleveland – Sabathia, Carmona, Byrd, Westbrook/Lee

Detroit – Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson, Rogers

Minnesota – Santana, Bonser, Silva, Garza

Los Angeles – Lackey, Weaver, Escobar, Colon

Oakland – Haren, Harden, Blanton, Gaudin

Seattle – Hernandez, Washburn, Bautista, Baek

I’d rank those teams in this order: Detroit, Boston, Oakland, Los Angeles, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Seattle. Adding Mark Buehrle to the Boston rotation and subtracting Wakefield or Julian Tavarez makes the Sox more formidable, on paper at least. Statistically, Buehrle is worth about 1.5 wins more than Tavarez over the course of the remaining season, and about 1.2 wins more than Wakefield.

Pitcher      VORP         VORP/GS            Proj # Starts Left            Proj VORP Left         Proj Wins Left

Wakefield    12.9            .86                            17                                        14.62                            1.46

  Tavarez      11.1            .85                           15                                          12.80                           1.28

Buehrle         23.4            1.8                           15                                          27                                   2.7

As previously mentioned, the division probably won’t come down to a game or two, so the Red Sox should make the playoffs regardless of whether or not they acquire Mark Buehrle.

In the 2005 playoffs, Buehrle was pretty much outstanding, including a 7 IP, 4 ER victory against the Sox. Overall, he was 2-0 with a 3.47 ERA and a WHIP of .9, including a complete game effort in which he gave up just one run and only 5 base runners. His strikeout rate was low, as he fanned just 10 in 23.3 innings, but Buehrle isn’t really a strikeout pitcher. He certainly doesn’t have the post-season pedigree of a Curt Schilling or even a Josh Beckett, but he performed well in 2005 and would seem unlikely to melt under the pressure of the playoffs.

However, given the low strikeout rate and the resulting fact that he relies on his fielders so much to make plays, Buehrle might be subject to some inconsistency in his performances because the outcomes of a large percentage of his plays are at the mercy of his fielders. He also has a tendency to give up the long ball, with totals in the mid-twenties to mid-thirties over the past 3 seasons and 13 already allowed this year. His DIPS ERA, which is based on the three outcomes a pitcher directly controls, strikeouts, walks, and home runs, is 4.27, which is 1.26 times his actual ERA. Because DIPS ERA is more stable from year to year and is more accurate in terms of predictive value, a pitcher with a DIPS ERA higher than his actual ERA tends to regress in performance and vice versa. As a point of comparison, Josh Beckett’s DIPS ERA is 2.95, or .96 times his actual ERA, so he should be fairly consistent over the course of the season. Dan Haren’s DIPS ERA is 3.39, 1.9 times his actual ERA of 1.78, so he’ll likely regress. Buehrle, therefore, is a candidate to regress, potentially making his projected wins added even lower than 1.2 over Wakefield.

Given all those statistical facts AND that he’s a free agent after the season who’s stated that he wants to play in his native St. Louis, I’d be extremely hesitant to trade anything of value for Buehrle, who could end up as an expensive rent-a-player. I would absolutely not trade Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury, and would be really hesitant to trade Daniel Bard or Michael Bowden. If the Herald’s Rob Bradford is correct is stating that Brandon Moss and Jed Lowrie might be enough to acquire Buehrle, the Sox should consider such a trade. I wouldn’t criticize them for not pulling the trigger, though.

There are, however, two scenarios that could lead the Sox to explore a trade for the Chicago lefty. One such scenario would be one much Cliff Floyd’s 2002 season. The outfielder was traded two times, once from the Florida Marlins to the Montreal Expos and a second time from the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox. Why would the Sox make such a move with Mark Buehrle? Maybe they feel like they have a good match in terms of prospects to trade with the White Sox. They could move a few prospects to Chicago now and then turn around and trade Buehrle in a few weeks for better prospects when demand increases around the trading deadline. They wouldn’t exactly be buying low and selling high; they’d be buying high and selling higher. I don’t know how realistic this scenario actually is, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility. Under a second scenario, the Sox would actually need Buehrle. Might Curt Schilling’s injury actually be more serious than expected? Jason Schmidt was sidelined with a similar injury earlier in the year, came back, and promptly blew out his arm and is out for the season. Even if Schilling’s injury isn’t as serious, the Sox could be worried and look at Buehrle as insurance in case the 40 year old Schilling doesn’t come back or isn’t effective. If this is the case, then the Sox should attempt to make a conservative trade for Mark Buehrle in which they don’t give up too much in terms of prospects.

Is Mark Buehrle that much better of an option over the course of this season than Jon Lester? That’s an unknown. Lester should strikeout more batters, but hasn’t been doing so in Pawtucket (which is likely the reason that Kason Gabbard is getting the start Tuesday night in Seattle), but is also young and relatively unproven. If he performed at the same level as last season, he’d basically be Julian Tavarez, making Buehrle a better option than Lester. If he improves over last year’s performance, Buehrle might not be worth the prospects that he would cost.

Would I, as Theo Epstein, trade for Mark Buehrle? Certainly, he makes the rotation even more formidable, but only marginally so. Unless Schilling is hurt more seriously than the Sox are letting the public know, I would probably pass on Buehrle. Even if he were traded to the Yankees, he would not be a difference maker in the AL East race. If Schilling is more seriously hurt, I’d offer a package comprised of something like Wily Mo Pena, Daniel Bard, and Brandon Moss, but not much more. That likely would not get a deal done with Chicago GM Kenny Williams, but anything else would be overpaying.

Admittedly, the title of this post might seem misguided.

Don't the Red Sox have the second best bullpen in baseball, with an ERA of 2.89, and one of the best setup men so far in Hideki Okajima, he of the 1.14 ERA and .789 WHIP? Yes, they do. The bullpen also projects to improve down the road as young guns (hopefully) like Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen are added into the mix, and as Julian Tavarez is moved back into the bullpen to make room for Jon Lester. However, it is certainly valid to expect that some of the Sox' relievers will regress as the season progresses. In particular, Okajima has been ridden hard (28 G, 31.1 IP) by Terry Francona, and recently has showed some signs of fatigue. The numbers don't really speak to a decline over his last 10 appearances (10 app, 12 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 7 K), but his usage overall is something to watch. Also, Mike Timlin has been hurt and ineffective all season, giving the Sox just one setup option, Okajima. Realistically, Donnelly, Pineiro, Lopez, and Snyder are appropriately slotted into middle relief. So the Red Sox biggest need thus far is to add a strikeout right-handed setup man.

While convincing you that the Sox need a setup man might be difficult, it's pretty obvious that the Yankees, although winners of 7 in a row and 10 of 12, need some bullpen help if they want to make the playoffs and have a chance to win at all. The Yankee bullpen ranks 20th in ERA at 4.21. While Mariano Rivera has returned to form of late and Scott Proctor and Brian Bruney have been serviceable (especially Bruney, who has a VORP of 12.1, good for 3rd on the team), the rest of the bullpen has generally been a disaster. Myers has been himself: good in the lefty on lefty match-ups, but ineffective over a span of batters. Farnsworth has been horrible throughout his time in New York despite his tremendous stuff. Luis Vizcaino has been terrible, making Yankees' fans hope that the other pieces acquired in the Randy Johnson trade, Ross Ohlendorf and Stephen Jackson, are pretty special.

Where am I going with all of this? In the past few seasons, it has become part of the philosophies of both the Red Sox and Yankees to not trade away prospects without getting equal value in return (Sox valued Beckett and Lowell more than Ramirez, Sanchez, et al.). At the trading deadline, acquiring the likes of Eric Gagne, Brad Lidge, Scott Linebrink, or Akinori Otsuka will be high. I really don't see the Sox trading a Jacoby Ellsbury or Michael Bowden to get one of those guys. Remember, they reportedly decided against trading such top prospects last season for Andruw Jones, Jake Peavy, and Roy Oswalt in different deals, and all three of those players are stars. The Yankees also are unlikely to use their top prospects to acquire a potential, not guaranteed, difference maker for one year (Dontrelle Willis and Rich Harden are exceptions because they are more than a half-season fix). However, neither team actually needs to use their top prospects to acquire these setup men. In fact, a couple both the Yankees and Red Sox top prospects can be used as setup men and can be potential difference makers in the playoff race and beyond.

Think back to the 1996 Yankees, or just to the 2005 Red Sox if you can't remember the 1996 Yankees. 1996 was Mariano Rivera's first full season in the majors and he was John Wetteland's apprentice as setup man. Rivera dominated the league that season, often pitching multiple dominant innings at a time, amassing a whopping 130 strikeouts in only 107.2 IP with a 2.09 ERA and a .994 WHIP. By most accounts, Rivera was amazing and one of the team's most valuable players in their World Series run. (I highly recommend Joel Sherman's Birth of a Dynasty; it's really an excellent account of that season and the Yankees' streak of dominance that began then, even as a die-hard Red Sox fan.) He finished 12th in MVP voting and 3rd in the AL Cy Young Race. 2005 was Jonathan Papelbon's debut season. While he worked as both a starter and reliever, his work out of the bullpen, especially late in the season, was nothing short of spectacular, a preview of his 2006 and 2007 season (although 2007 has been mildly disappointing compared to 2006 so far). From September through the playoffs in 2005, Papelbon pitched 17.1 innings, allowing only 12 hits, 4 walks, and 2 earned runs, while amassing 15 strikeouts. Along with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, he was probably the main reason the Red Sox even made the playoffs that season. Because of the similar amounts of innings pitched, Papelbon is probably the model to be followed here, as his call-up came later in the season, as opposed to Rivera starting the season in New York.

Who exactly do I have in mind for these two roles?

Phillip Hughes should be the man for the Yankees. There really should be no debating Hughes' potential dominance out of the bullpen. Even in his brief, injury shortened stint as a starter, Hughes showed his ability to dominate major league hitters. If instead of stretching out his pitches over an entire game, he'd be able to spend them at will over a one or two inning outing two to four times per week. His already good 'stuff' would improve to great (or 'great' to 'amazing') and he could be dominant. Hughes averaged about .10 strikeouts per inning pitched more than Papelbon in the minors (approx. 1.05 to .95), and as a reliever, his strikeout rate can be expected to increase by about 16%, according to Baseball Prospectus' conversion factors. There are only two questions about Hughes: His health and whether he should be a starter or a reliever. In the long term, Hughes is definitely more valuable as a starter to the Yankees; many in baseball project him as a future number one starter. However, by the time he returns from his severe ankle sprain, it will take him a lot less time to come back an contribute in a meaningful way to the bullpen than to the rotation. Also, given the choice between Tyler Clippard (or whoever is the 5th starter at that point) pitching out of the bullpen or Phillip Hughes pitching out of the bullpen, Hughes can dominate where as Clippard will likely be nothing more than a middle reliever at best. Think of it this way: would you rather have Kyle Sndyer starting every fifth day with Papelbon circa 2005 in the bullpen or Papelbon 2005 starting every fifth day and Snyder available out of the bullpen? I'd choose the combo of Papelbon in the bullpen with Snyder starting. Also, if the Yankees make the playoffs, Hughes will inevitably be bumped to the bullpen because he is the only potential starter who would be able to make the transition easily. Wang, Pettite, Mussina, and Clemens are all obviously best suited to start. Hughes, if healthy, should be viewed as a potential difference maker out of the bullpen in the American League.

Clay Buchholz is the man for the Red Sox. While Jon Lester is probably the Sox' top prospect, he isn't really a strikeout pitcher. In fact, I believe that that's the reason that Lester still in the minors, not that Tavarez is pitching so well, because the combination of Lester/Tavarez is better than the current combination of Tavarez/Pineiro (who will be likely be cut when Lester returns unless there is an injury). Lester's strikeout rate in the minors this year is only 6.3 per 9 innings pitched, compared to 6.63 per 9 innings pitched in the majors last year. That 6.3 will probably drop significantly when Lester starts facing major league hitters, unless he changes his approach. (Sidenote: His strikeout rate will probably soar once he's able to throw his cutter, which the team prohibited during his rehab starts.) Buchholz has struck out 11.65 batters per 9 innings (86 K's in 63.1 IP) in Portland (AA), while posting a 1.56 ERA with an opponents' average of .177 and only 14 walks in 63.1 IP. Obviously Buchholz's strikeout rate will fall as he progresses to AAA and then the majors. However, a telling sign of his talent is that when he faced Clemens in one of Clemens' rehab starts, scouts all came away from the outing proclaiming that if they had to pick a pitcher to start a game five days from them, Buchholz would be their guy, hands down. Also, Buchholz has been said to have ice-water in his veins and has been breaking Josh Beckett's strikeout records in Portland (which was a Florida AA team when Beckett was in their system). While Hansen and Delcarmen (both are pitching better of late in Pawtucket) are certainly also potential candidates to fill the role of setup man, they have already failed to do so in the majors, so barring a major progression in their skills over the rest of the season in Pawtucket, they might not be ideal for the situation. Given the stats, scouting reports, and history, Clay Buchholz may be worth a look as a potential flame-throwing righty with a great fastball and curveball and good slider and changeup who can strike guys out.

 It's still only June, and the Red Sox are still 9.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the standings, but down the road and into October, keep an eye on Clay Buchholz and Phillip Hughes. Both could make huge differences for their teams.