NFL Conference Championship Playoff Picks: (Last week 3-1, overall season 165-98)

AFC Championship Game:

New England Patriots over San Diego Chargers: Wow, now that's a shocker!  I said very early on that I wouldn't pick against the Pats until they eventually lost, so thus I shall pick them again this week as they now stand at 17-0.  The Chargers are looking to channel the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of 2002 who changed coaches and got over the hump.  They're probably the 2nd hottest team in the NFL to the team they're facing, having won eight in a row themselves, turning their season around.  The Chargers are a bit beat up, yet are a very physical team (+ 24 in turnover ratio) more than capable of keeping up with the Pats aggressive play.  Hope the Pats weren't hoping for and anticipating the Colts because the Bolts will have a chip on their shoulders.  However the Pats have the Brady magic, much like the Yankees have the Jeter magic, perhaps moreso because Jeter can't bat as many times as Brady can take snaps.

NFC Championship Game: Right here on FOX!

New York Giants over Green Bay Packers: I have ridden my Giants, (not to be confused with that awful Billy Crystal movie My Giant) thus far and have looked good as a result.  They are perhaps channeling the road warrior Pittsburgh Steelers of a couple of years ago with an NFL record nine straight road wins or perhaps with the retirement of Tiki Barber like the Indianapolis Colts who last year lost Edgerrin James to the Arizona Cardinals and went on to win the Super Bowl.  More impressive than the maturity of QB Eli Manning though may be the grit and determination of their defense.  That defense used to talk big like they were the '86 Giants of L.T., Carson, Banks and Pepper Johnson, but came up small in big spots, now they just shut up and play.  On the Packers side Brett Favre will have to win it for them, what a suprise.  But he can't force it and try to do too much or he'll get into trouble, especially if the Giants take away Ryan Grant.  Yes Lambeau Field is a huge homefield advantage, but if the Atlanta Falcons can win a playoff game there I guess nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.  Both teams actually lucked out in a sense with the Pack not having to go to Dallas and the Gmen not having to go to Seattle.  The Packers also have a far superior and healthier WR corps than Dallas or Tampa at the moment and the Giants thin secondary is beat up.  The Green Bay defense doesn't quite pop out at anyone as much but they are solid at basically every spot, whereas the Giants are stronger up front and the Packers especially excel in the secondary.  Ultimately I expect the Giants to gut it out, otherwise I'll be rooting for Favre's Packers against the other Bill's Patriots just like I did so many years ago during Super Bowl XXXI.

The competitor in me wants to see the New York Giants take a crack at the undefeated New England Patriots.  Yet when using sound logic, that makes about as much sense as the Giants actually beating the Patriots.  Both teams know where they're going from this point on, the Pats back to Foxboro until they go to Arizona and the Giants to Tampa where they've split Super Bowls.

Proponents of the Giants actually showing up in this game will argue that the Giants need to stay fresh and gain some momentum so that if they somehow do knock off the Pats, there will be some confidence boosting carry-over effect that will propell the Giants on a legendary playoff run.  Others will also argue that the Giants aren't going deep into the playoffs anyhow and that this in effect is their "Super Bowl." 

Another point is that if the Giants play and beat the Pats, no matter what they do from here on out, 10, 20, 25 years from now they'll be remembered as the team that beat the 15-0 Pats and ruined the perfect season.  But I'll tell you what, I remember the 1998 Giants who upset the 13-0 John Elway Denver Broncos at Giants Stadium when Kent Graham hooked up with Amani Toomer for the winning score, and the only memorable thing about that team is that they did it and that they were a team that completely underachieved that season and did nothing.  Actually looking back that win for that Giants team might have meant more because unlike that Giants team, this Giants team still has more to play for, namely the playoffs.  Besides how really historical are those Giants along with the Chad Johnson Bengals who upset the Chiefs about five years back or the Marino Dolphins who upset the '85 Bears?

The only fans that have a right to complain and be sour Week 17 are followers of the Vikings, Saints and Browns.  Because with the Redskins and Titans having destiny in their own hands and playing the Cowboys and Colts respectively, those two latter teams have no more of an obligation to show up and play hard than the Giants do. 

Granted they are 7-1 on the road, but for a team that would have to play three straight road games (assuming the Redskins/6th seed doesn't make it to the NFC Conference Championship Game) just to get to Arizona for the Super Bowl, this is in effect their bye week and they've earned it just as much as the Cowboys and Colts.

There's simply no need for anyone on the O-Line to go out and twist a knee, or Eli Manning to re-aggrivate his shoulder or Brandon Jacobs to tear up his hamstring or Plaxico Burress to roll over his ankle or an already thin-depth defense to lose anymore anchors.  You don't play scared or you get injured, therefore there's no reason to play these guys outside of a couple of series if at all in what amounts to a meaningless game.  The last two seasons in Oakland and Washington, the Giants had to go out and grind it to win the division and last year to just make the playoffs.  This season they have the luxury of having clinched and knowing who and where they'll play in the playoffs.

Some will say that two back to back losses to New England and Tampa Bay will be devastating and depressing and with the Giants ending a third straight season of being bumped out in the first round won't distinguish them from anyone and that "what if" syndrome of potentially beating the Pats and making "history," will set in. 

Lets get one thing perfectly straight though, the Pats are the only team playing for history here folks.  They are the only one's with that streak on the line and the only one's outside of the casual football fan and perhaps the '72 Dolphins that should care about it.  This is not the Giants fight, they just so happen to be opponent # 16 on the Pats schedule.  Besides if the Giants actually show up and play there's no guarantee they'll beat them and even if they do and some guys get knocked out for the season, the regret and "what if" fallout from a first round playoff loss in Tampa will be even more historically painful for the Giants and Giants fans.

Finally, if you're the Giants and you do pull off some kind of miraculous playoff run to meet the Pats in Arizona for the Super Bowl, why show off all of your cards now? 

NFC South:

1.) New Orleans Saints (12-4): Granted the Saints are the Saints and everyone thought years ago that Aaron Brooks and Jim Haslett were the second coming after they upset the Rams in the playoffs, but this team is just too stacked with prolific playmakers.  QB Drew Brees set the NFC on fire after everyone said he was shot.  Reggie Bush was about the only Bush doing anything to improve the quality of New Orleans and boy did he ever.  Bush racked up six rushing TD's and led the team in catches with 88.  Marques Colston was also another pleasant suprise reeling in 70 receptions for over 1,038 yards and eight TD catches. 

2.) Carolina Panthers (10-6)* Wild Card: Before the Saints came along, they were everyone's sexy pick to go to the Super Bowl the last few years.  They play well inside the division going 18-12 against the NFC South since its creation in 2002.  DE Julius Peppers and WR Steve Smith are both key to whether this team not only makes the playoffs but makes some noise as well.

3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Question, last NFC team to win a Super Bowl?  That'd be the Bucs in 2002.  How the conference and the Bucs have fallen.  And now they bring in every QB not named Steve DeBerg to try and right the ship.  Cadillac Williams will have to revert back to his rookie form for this team to have a shot in the NFC South.

4.) Atlanta Falcons (2-14): Joey Harrington is one dog of a QB and as a result this team will be put to sleep rather quickly.  They've got a decent running game and some playmakers on defense but please don't make me mention who their QB is again.

For the start of the Jerry Reese era as the GM of the New York Giants, one thing is clear: "We don't want you if you don't want to be here."  This became evidently clear when the Giants decided not to bend over backwards in trying to convince Tiki Barber to comeback, even if that meant firing coach Tom Coughlin in the process.  They appear to be sending the same message to Michael Strahan, that they're not afraid to sign Simeon Rice or hand the DE spot to youngster Justin Tuck. 

This is all somewhat reminiscent of the Dan Reeves era when the old guard of Bill Parcells Giants was shown the door and there were contract disputes with QB Phil Simms amongst others.  However, these Giants aren't nearly in as bad of shape as those Giants talent wise.

Perhaps now the message has been sent, that virtually everyone is expendible.  That of course could usher in the possibilty that Coughlin has more backing that originally thought and that a youth movement would work more to Coughlin's advantage.  To Coughlin's credit he is a very sound technical coach, however his handling of players and drill sargent mentality has made for a team that comes out as gang-busters but wears down and fades late due to injuries. 

Given that Reese has cut a lot of dead weight in Carlos Emmons, Luke Petitgout and LaVar Arrington, would it really suprise anyone if Strahan was given the "Bernie Williams treatment?"  After all, despite having a Pro-Bowl season in 2005 with 81 tackles and 11.5 sacks, Strahan has missed 15 games due to injury over the last three seasons. 

If healthy Strahan still has the talent and his leadership would be a plus to a relatively young defense.  However if he wants L.T.'s sack record, like his old coach Jim Fassel once said, "the chips are on the table," if Strahan wants in, he's in, if he wants out the Giants will call his bluff.