Yankees-Indians ALDS Preview

They were American league rivals back in the late 1940's and early 1950's.  A.L. East rivals until the mid-1990's.  Heck they even faced eachother in the movie Major League.  From 1995 through 2001 it was always either the Yanks or the Tribe playing for the American League in the World Series. 

During that time span the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees met twice, each team splitting, with the Indians winning the ALDS in 1997 and the Yankees winning the ALCS in 1998.  However there's about a handful of players left from those teams.

Setting the table: The Indians are the A.L. Central champs while the Yankees took the Wild Card.  The Yankees went 6-0 against the Indians this season and have fared well historically at Jacobs Field.  Here's the positional breakdown.

Catcher: Jorge Posada vs. Victor Martinez - Given the speed of the Yankees top four and Melky Cabrera, if they don't get aggressive and actively run on Martinez, Joe Torre needs to have his head checked.  Martinez at the plate has numbers that make one gush, he's been over .300 most of the year until recently and his 25 HR and 111 RBI lead all catchers.  Posada however has been scorching the ball all year, a sparkling .337 batting average not only leads all catchers but is 5th in the league and he has 20 HR and 89 RBI to boot.  Posada is hitting over .300 in every possible situation, lefties, righties, day, night, home, away, grass, turf, and Posada isn’t slowing down hitting around .390 this month.

Edge: Yankees

1st base: Doug Mientkiewicz vs. Ryan Garko – If one is merely looking at total stats the edge would clearly go to Garko.  Garko strikes me as a clutch hitter who you can’t afford to fall asleep on if you’re a pitcher even though he’s lower in the order.  Mientkiewicz has been red hot with the bat since coming back from injury and hit .429 in the month of September.  Mientkiewicz is the best I’ve seen at first defensively since Don Mattingly wore the pinstripes, he also has playoff experience. 

 Edge: Yankees

 2nd base: Robinson Cano vs. Asdrubal Cabrera – Cabrera looked overmatched against the Yankees in August but picked it up gaining more confidence down the stretch.  Its guys like Cabrera who in October get a hit in a key spot and everyone says who the heck is that guy?  However Cano ripped up the league in the second half.  Cano goes surging into the playoffs, finishing up with 19 HR’s and 97 RBI, both career highs.  Beware C.C. Sabathia, this lefty hits lefties at a .328 clip. 

 Edge: Yankees

Shortstop: Derek Jeter vs. Jhonny Peralta – Some fools dare to call Jeter overrated in the regular season, but if one doesn’t call him the best playoff performer of his generation if not ever, they just haven’t been paying attention the last decade plus.  For Jeter the one-time World Series MVP his ALDS stats read like this, .370, 9 HR, 20 RBI along with 67 hits in 46 games.  Peralta has had a bounce back season of sorts with his power numbers, 21 HR and 72 RBI.  While he does hit well at home batting .297, he’s not much of a road warrior hitting just .243.  Do I even have to ask?  Clearly it’s Jeter. 

Edge: Yankees

3rd base: Alex Rodriguez vs. Casey Blake – As much as I’ve praised Jeter’s playoff prowess it would only be fair to mention A-Rod’s post-season misfortunes of the last couple of seasons.  However in baseball A-Rod is what we call due.  He’s clearly the best player in the game and consensus MVP and nothing seems to get to the guy this year.  He had 6 of his 54 homers against Cleveland including a walk off grand slam at the Stadium.  Blake on the other hand is a solid, gritty player with some pop at 3rd base.  He’s essentially Peralta in reverse, hitting .247 at home and .294 on the road.  Blake is a pesky player but not in A-Rod’s class, but really who is? 

Edge: Yankees

Leftfield: Johnny Damon vs. Kenny Lofton – Two guys winding down solid careers and two guys who’ve been through the playoff wars before.  Lofton has given the Tribe a veteran boost as a guy who has been there before the last time the Indians tasted October.  His acquisition from Texas allowed the Indians to slot Grady Sizemore into the number three slot in the order.  However when it comes to postseason Lofton despite his experience is hitting a paltry .244 overall.  Damon on the other hand seems to have gotten his legs back under him and has recaptured his stroke at the right time.  Damon is still a threat on the base paths leading the Yanks with 27 and is hitting .390 in his last 41 at bats.  In ALDS play Damon is hitting .337.

 Edge: Yankees

Centerfield: Melky Cabrera vs. Grady Sizemore – The one position where Cleveland gets a definitive edge.  Sizemore has a great glove, can beat a team with power 24 HR or speed 33 SB.  Sizemore can create runs in so many different fashions and isn’t afraid to take a walk.  Sizemore is hitting .375 in his last 32 at bats.  Cabrera gives the Yanks a shot of enthusiasm and has the best centerfield arm this side of Ichiro.  Cabrera though may have tired down the stretch as his late season numbers would show, hitting only .154 in his last 39 at bats. 

 Edge: Indians

Rightfield: Bobby Abreu vs. Franklin Gutierrez – Abreu has really picked up the slack in the second half for the Yanks, hitting 16 HR with 101 RBI.  Abreu was one of the few impressive Yankees along with Jeter and Posada in last year’s playoffs against Detroit hitting .333.  Gutierrez is a young player with a little pop.  Gutierrez socked 13 HR’s but is only hitting .247 in the last month. 

Edge: Yankees

DH: Hideki Matsui vs. Travis Hafner – Even if this turns out to be Jason Giambi or Shelley Duncan in game one, even with Hafner having a “down year” for his standards, the man they call “Pronk” gets the edge.  Hafner who last year was Mr. Grand-slam, is one of those dangerous players who can carry a team on his back in a short series.  Hafner hit 24 HR and drove in an even 100 RBI and is also smashing the ball of late, hitting at a .485 clip in his last 33 at bats.  For Matsui, yes the stats are there .285, 25 HR, 103 RBI.  However it has been somewhat of a streaky and injury plagued season for the man they call “Godzilla.”  Matsui suffered early on from a hamstring injury and really didn’t heat up until July where he won A.L. Player of the Month honors, but a cranky knee stunted his power to an extent in September. 

Edge: Indians

Starters: Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia – Both 19 game winners, both have different styles, but neither are particularly bat shy.  Both pitchers won their team’s last postseason game.  Both are workhorses who’ve pitched fairly well down the stretch.  I’m not saying that either is invincible for a number one starter, but based on the fact that Sabathia going against a lefty laden Yankee lineup is only allowing lefties to hit .203 and Wang has a 4.91 road ERA, I have to give the slight edge to Sabathia. 

Edge: Indians

Starters: Andy Pettitte vs. Fausto Carmona – In 2003 Pettitte was also number two, however that year he was anything but, bailing out the Yankees and winning each time they went down 1-0 in a series.  Pettitte also has 14 postseason wins to his name.  Pettitte was also the ultimate Yankee stopper and carried the team with a brilliant second half going 11-2.  While Pettitte has fared well against the Indians this season, Carmona has gotten knocked around by the Yankees.  However Carmona was no slouch this season, like Sabathia he also won 19 games and actually pitched to a better ERA 3.06.  Carmona also pitched well down the stretch going 9-4 in the second half and has won his last five starts.  Though I get the strange feeling that things change when the calendar changes.  Pettitte was brought back for this reason and he will rise to the occasion. 

Edge: Yankees

Starters: Roger Clemens vs. Jake Westbrook – Contrary to popular belief, Roger Clemens and not A-Rod will be the determining factor as to whether the Yankees advance deep into the 2007 postseason.  Unless one has the rare combo of a Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale or Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, having at least three solid starters in the playoffs is pivotal.  One only needs to look at Clemens’ last two starts to know what to expect.  If he’s healthy he’s usually on and will give an automatic six innings of two-hit shutout ball.  If not, Phil Hughes will be pitching in the 3rd inning.  Westbrook the former Yankee has had if nothing else an up and down season.  Lefties seem to hit him well and the Yankees absolutely drilled him in two starts this year.  While Westbrook has pitched better of late, his 4.78 road ERA doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.  If nothing else Clemens will gut it out and try to capitalize on an impatient Indians lineup.   

Edge: Yankees

Starters: Mike Mussina vs. Paul Byrd – The two squared off on August 11th at Jacobs Field, with Byrd getting smacked for seven hits and seven runs in just two innings of work.  Mussina on the other hand picked up the win, pitching into the 8th striking out six along the way.  While Mussina has had the roughest season of his solid career, the Yankees have just absolutely eaten up Byrd, including smacking him around when he was a member of the Angles at Yankee Stadium during game three of the 2005 ALDS.   

Edge: Yankees

Bullpen: In Mariano Rivera the Yankees have the best postseason closer if not pitcher ever.  In the ALDS Mo has a record of 2-0 with a microscopic 0.42 ERA and overall in the playoffs a record of 8-1, 0.80 ERA, 34 saves, a World Series MVP in 1999 and an ALCS MVP in 2003.  Finally, unlike the last five years or so the Yankees have someone who can get the ball to Mo without him being overly taxed.  That man is none other than Joba Chamberlain.  Joba who gives opposing hitters the “Gas-Chamberlain,” is the Yankees Mariano Rivera to Mariano Rivera’s, John Wetteland making them the best 1-2 relief punch in the Bronx since 1996.  Did I mention Chamberlain has an ERA of 0.38 in with 34 strikeouts in 24 innings?  Joba Rules indeed!  The rest of the bullpen is really a tossup depending on the durability of Luis Vizciano’s arm and the stability of Kyle Farnsworth’s head.  Personally I’d give Phil Hughes a bigger role in the pen if he’s not going to start.  On the Indians side, former Yankee Joe Borowski led the A.L. in saves with 45.  Borowski in his lone postseason appearance with the Cubs in 2003 fared well, going 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA and six strikeouts in five games.  The Indians bullpen also likes the tunes of Raffy.  So much so they have two, lefty Rafael Perez who is sporting a 1.78 ERA with lefties hitting only .145 off him.  And righty Rafael Betancourt who has an even more impressive 1.47 ERA and righties are only hitting .147 off him.  Jensen Lewis has also been a pleasant surprise.  

Edge: Yankees

Bench: Both teams have a solid mix and presence on the bench.  For the Yankees it’s Jason Giambi, Jose Molina, Shelley Duncan and Wilson Betemit.  For the Indians, Jason Michaels, Kelly Shoppach, Chris Gomez and Trot Nixon. 

Edge: Even

Manager: Joe Torre vs. Eric Wedge – Torre has struggled without Don Zimmer by his side the last few postseasons.  For Wedge this is his first go-around in the playoffs.

Prediction: Yankees in 4.