(First lesson of blogging - do not post when you'll not be at your computer for a few days, especially on a blogging site that doesn't email you when someone responds to your comments. I should know this. Hence the fact that I'm revising my posting to always doing so Sunday through Thursday. I like interacting with you guys.)
So you know that song, "The Race Is On"? Of course you do. After all, the title has been altered for the Chase for four years now. Well, the lyrics really hold true when applied to NASCAR. Dale Jr. officially gets the label of Heartache, watching his last remaining hope die with that engine. (Even if at that point Harvick was clinched for the Chase, the hope of going out giving it all you had...it's pride, man.)
But I'm not getting into conspiracies (although I think it's indicative of DEI's overall engine problems when all the drivers on a team have blown engines in one year). What I'm ready to do is talk Chasers. Who stands a chance? Who has the momentum? Who has the total package at the right time?
Back Of The Pack
The guys that don't have the momentum and will probably end up in positions 10-12: Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Jeff Burton.
As much as I love the RCR guys, right now they're just not performing up to snuff. They know it, too. Truex has the problem that, for all his drive, DEI isn't giving their drivers as much to work with as the other teams in the Chase are. So these guys will struggle to just maintain the last 10 races. None of them will have a win.
On The Fence
The guys that will finish 7-9 are the guys who've had some momentum but not the consistency. Or, they've had all the consistency but just not the right spark or enough power to make it totally to the front. My picks for 7-9: Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch.
While I like the momentum on Kurt's side, I'm not sure that Penske is completely out of the woods yet. Clint has been driving his #### off and posting really solid finishes, but his inexperience and RCR's woes will combine to keeping him from cracking the top 6. Carl's in almost the same boat as Kurt, especially going into the Chase with a blown engine. But given the right turn of events, they can capitalize and make a run for the top three.
Strong And Steady
Consistency beats momentum in my book, so 4-6 will be: Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch.
Kenseth and Hamlin have been scarily consistent this season. They're top tier drivers that can find a way to make the most out of a crappy day. They have solid runs going that should easily propel them close to contending. Kyle Busch has the desire to prove a point on his side (plus great talent). Provided he doesn't race foolishly (which is pretty much a 70/30 chance), he'll threaten to be in the top 3. Or, should he fall prey to his own foolishness, he could swap spots with his brother.
The Top Tier
Positions 1-3 come down to momentum, talent, equipment, and whoever has just the right amount of luck: Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson.
Stewart is in the midst of his late season swing. Johnson has six wins going in to the Chase. Gordon is the points leader and was locked in to the Chase so far in advance that he could afford to play around with setups and engine packages.
The Champion
Jeff Gordon will win the Championship.
Tony is on an upswing, but he's not swinging as fiercely as he did in 2005. It's a return to form, but by no means will he win the Championship. Jimmie Johnson has six wins, but lady luck has not been on his side. After all, with six wins, if things were solidly going his way, he'd be leading the standings, not Jeff.
Jeff has had a charmed year. Luck has been on his side, he's run well even when he hasn't won, and there's a relaxed and focussed sense about the team that makes up the championship package. They've had the chance to test the waters more than others. Plus, the way LeTarte and Gordon have gelled, it's only been a matter of time until they went to the top and stayed there. Gordon has been at the top of the standings most of the season. I don't see Jimmie staying there for long in the Chase. Gordon is who I predicted back in May and I haven't wavered since.
It emails the poster, but the poster doesn't have the option to reply directly to a comment that lets the commenter know that the poster has responded.
Whew, that sound convoluted. LOL I just hate that if I miss a couple of days, replying to the comments becomes a moot point because I'm behind the ball.
if its any consolation i frequently check back to blogs i commented on even a couple weeks later. especially if the blog sparks my opinion. i enjoyed your break down here but don't you think carl edwards and kurt busch have looked very good in these last 5 or so races with 2 wins apiece? i think i might use the premise of your post as my next contest, if that is alright with you.
Last edited by williamwilman on September 9th at 1:23 PM.
Carl and Kurt could challenge to end up higher in the standings, but the disparity overall in the sport this year...I just don't think there's a chance for much of anyone to challenge a Hendrick car (namely Gordon) for the title. It's partially due to the Car of Tomorrow and their early lead on that front. Plus, Roush has struggled this year, even with Kenseth, who didn't have to give up his crew chief. Penske is swinging at the right time, but given how far behind they've been the last couple of years, Kurt will do well, he just doesn't have the strong organization behind him that will not falter in 10 more races.
Of course everything is up to luck - the luck of missing wrecks (like Harvick last night) or the luck of not being the one on the team with a blown engine. Or even the luck of every other guy getting in trouble of some sort. Bad luck can happen at any time, because there's 43 guys on the track. It all depends on who goes conservative or who goes whole hog for the win - and whether it impacts the chasers.
Don't forget another stroke of luck: the red flag coming out when Harvick's engine was overheating.
Here's my Back of the Pack guys: Martin Truex Jr., Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards.
On the Fence: Jeff Burton, Kurt and Kyle Busch.
Strong and Steady: Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick.
The Top Tier: Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon.
Nextel Cup Champion: Jeff Gordon.
NOTE: Kevin Harvick usually has very strong runs towards the end of the season and I expect it to continue. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win a couple of times in the Chase. That's why I put him in the Strong and Steady column.
That was huge luck for Harvick. His overheating wasn't bad (and he said later on SPEED that it wasn't so much overheating as just water coming out the pushout valve - or something like that, although the way that thing was spitting, it was doing someting not so grand). I really hope they've gotten Harvick's woes under control and turned the tide for his team, because I like it when he's in the mix and fiesty. And he's had better runs than sometimes show, thanks to unfortunate luck, like at Watkins Glen.
It'll be interesting to see when the tide turns and for who. There's always at least one surprise in the whole thing, which tends to be my favorite part. I'll root for really random guys based entirely upon the upset. (Which means, while I don't expect it, I would laugh my #### off and cheer if Bowyer won.)
You really thought this through - I don't think you said anything that isn't justifiable.
The problem with the chase is the unpredictability factor- remember Robby & Biff taking out Stewart & Mayfield or Stewart stealing the trophies last year, or the Charlotte tire problems in 2005? Those unforeseen circumstances pop up and mess with the well-thought out paper answers. Is this the year Talladega decides it with the Big One? It will be fun to watch and see who the Champion is.
That top 10 was huge for Harvick and his team. It's going to give that team confidence going down the homestretch. I wouldn't be surprised if he took the checkered flag at Loudon this next Sunday.
I sure hope they change the chase, cause its just WRONG. 10 bonus points for a win? thats nothing. You'd have to win at least 15 races just to have a decent advantage. what does Gordon get for being so far ahead in points? for all their good hard team work? NOTHING. What does Johnson get for winning the most races in the season? NOTHING. To think Dale Jr. was so close to making the chase with 6 DNF's and no wins. He would have been just 60 points out of the lead, and could have possibly won the championship. That is not right at all. All someone has to do is wreck Gordon or Johnson and its pretty much over for them.
Hyrtwe1543, I'd like to see the top 10 get 1,000 bonus points each after 26 races. Keep the point margin the same. Limit the Chase to the top 10 after 26 races.
Iowa - Oh man, the unpredictability is the best part! Cause as much as we handicap it, you can't do a thing about wrecks and other people.
I'm looking forward to seeing how the actual results stack up in the end. I love seeing how off or on I was. (The past two years I've solidly predicted the champion. I'm hoping for a trifecta.)
Jon - As a Harvick fan (among the many other drivers I love), I really, really hope I'm wrong about his chances. I'd love to see him win several races and get things turned around.
Tez - I'm sadistic like you. In the Chase I've got two or three guys that I don't want to win. But then I've got guys that I'm not fans of but would enjoy seeing win because it would be hysterically funny - Kyle being one (because the boy has nothing to lose) and Clint being the other (I think he'd get a win in there, but just the fact that he's been so steady a la Kenseth...coming out of nowhere to beat all the big dogs would be funny).
And man, if NASCAR tweaks the whole deal again, it'll be funny as all get out. They've had plenty of guys get into the Chase without a win. It shouldn't be more of a factor than consistency. On the flip side, wins should have more weight in the standings overall. Not just in the Chase.
Hyrte - I wish they'd just realize that winning is the most important thing and give a bonus for that in the regular season. No waiting until the Chase - give them the bonus when they earn it. Two things in NASCAR should put a person in the Chase: winning lots of races or being consistent as all get out. And if you get one driver (Gordon) who manages both, then it won't matter how far behind they get at the beginning of the Chase. They'll bounce back.
Geek girls love NASCAR too! If you don't believe me, spend a Sunday afternoon at my house (or a Saturday night). I have great love for the cars, the speed, the engines, the stories, the drivers, the crew chiefs, the crews, the owners, the business that is NASCAR.
