Oregon St. at Penn. St.

Even though there is still egg on my face from the Beaver debacle at Stanford last week, the (16) point spread in this game is a complete over reaction to last week's games.  Actually, the line has probably come way down since the recent suspensions to the Penn. St. defense this week. 

At any rate, the Lions scoring (66) against Coastal Carolina isn't any more impressive than was Stanford's win over Oregon St.  The turnovers by the Beav's got a big assist in that game.  I realize that Penn. St. is a much better team when they play in Happy Valley than on the road, but with the way this PAC-10 team can score, don't be surprised if Oregon St. helps to keep the Big Ten down by winning this game outright. 

Minnesota at Bowling Green

The line on this game isn't a typo; The Falcons of Bowling Green are a legit (5) point fave over Minny Mouse.  Bowling Green's comeback at previously ranked Pitt last week, chipped in here; So did the fact that they won in Minnesota in OT last year; But the final carrot for the stew is the prevailing lack of respect for the Big Ten. 

Last week the, anything but Golden, Gophers were life and death to get past N. Illinois........at home, no less.  And of course, who could forget their home loss (again) to N. Dakota St.  I never heard of the school until that day. 

Oh, what has happened to my beloved Big Ten brethren.  Is this what the Big Ten has become?  There is very little respect around the nation for the Big Ten right now and deservedly so.  Oh, by the way, I realize that my guys are big culprits to that crime.  

Every conference goes full circle, though.  The Big Ten will return to prominence.  Hopefully that notion can start here, by Minnesota playing with "Eleven" big chips on their shoulders.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt

How the heck is S. Carolina nearly a (10) point choice over Vandy?  The Comm'dores aren't that bad.  Besides, they won in Columbia last year and S. Carolina doesn't look to be any better than they were last year. 

Did anyone see last Thursday night's game?  Wasn't it ugly, like I said it would be?  That was the closest 27-0 game you'll ever see.  N.C. St. was establishing the Run; They were pushing the Gamecocks all over the field....................until their starting QB went down.  Everything that happened there after was nonsense.  N.C. St. fell apart.  They were no longer able to run the pig, because their senior backup QB Daniel Evans is so bad (like I said he was), that S. Carolina challenged him to throw on almost every down and he sure did..............right into the hands of the other guys.  Toss in a fumble return for a TD and S. Carolina won going away. 

But make no mistake; You're looking at a troubled bunch of Roosters.  They're going to start Chris Smelley at QB, which is the best decision they've made in a while.  At least he is the closest to being a QB in Columbia.  Still, they have trouble keeping the opposition out of their backfield and the heart and soul of their defense, Jasper Brinkley, is coming off major reconstructive knee surgery. 

The funny part about all of this is, S. Carolina has a great shot at starting the season 2-0, before they host Georgia next week.  Nearly (10) point favorites?  Uh, Uh!  Would anyone be surprised if Vanderbilt won tonight?  I wouldn't.

USC - 20 over Virginia

Virginia is a shell of what they were last year and even with that team, they couldn't finish off a bowl victory that was in their hip pockets.  They lost their big Tight End and their Pass Rush and will have little resistance against..........well, USC.  Despite USC's injuries, they still have a million and one Running Backs and should pull away from the Cavs.  Watch USC cover all spreads here, no matter where you get your numbers from.

USC 48, Virginia 13

New Mexico + 6 1/2 over TCU

You can bet Los Lobos have had this game circled on their collective calendars since last year's 37-0 blowout in Ft. Worth.  New Mexico has lost (10) starters, but one of the returning ones is key:  two time all conference RB-Rodney Ferguson.  TCU doesn't scare anyone when they have the football and they finished very weakly in conference play last season.  I usually like to pick New Mexico on the road rather than at home, but I like them to start their season off with some sweet revenge.

New Mexico 24, TCU 16

Michigan St. + 5 1/2 over California

This is an easy game for a purist to pick.  These teams are going in different directions.  Among the players that have moved on, Cal lost all world, all everything Desean Jackson, which will hurt their Special Teams.  Cal completely CALappsed down the stretch of year's season campaign until they changed QB's and game back to beat your's truly in the Armed Forces Bowl.  Still, Michigan St., under the guidance of Mark D'Antonio is heading in the right direction.  He is returning classic Big Ten football to East Lansing and should have the better play at the line of scrimmage in this one. 

Michigan St. 31, California 28

Clemson -4 over Alabama

This should be a great game.............an early season bowl game, even.  However, when you look between the lines, Saban's defense isn't quite ready to handle the challenge of the Tiger Running Game and balanced attack for (4) qtrs.  On the other side of the ball, Bama doesn't have any developed playmakers and their leader, QB-John Parker Wilson didn't finish up too confidently last year.  Look at it this way, if Clemson doesn't get to the ACC Title Game this year, they never will and besides, they don't fold until the later half of the season.  Look for Clemson to live up to their Top 10 ranking.

Clemson 30, Alabama 20

Idaho + 27 over Arizona

This is a bad game to get involved in, but the number jumped right out at me.  I've seen enough of Arizona to know that this isn't the kind of team that draws their best effort; Even if it is the season opener.  Although the Wildcats will score an abundance of points, along with their PAC-10 foes, their defense is still a Work In Progress.  Put it all together and Idaho should be able to stay within this lofty number.

Arizona 38, Idaho 17

Well, after a miserable season trying to predict winners, here goes my first crack at it for this year.

N.C. St. + 14  over S. Carolina

At this stage of Spurrier's tenure in Columbia, I don't think these guys should be two touchdown favs over anyone.  Their usual QB merry-go-round has, once again, surfaced and will be the yearly stumbling block for the Gamecocks.  They've also lost some key personel off of their Defense, which won't help either.  This is more of a pick against the favorite than it is for the dog.  N.C. St., by their own right, has much work to do.  Their QB, Daniel Evans is horrendous.  I'm sure the Raleigh faithful can't wait for him to graduate.  I know it's only the second year for coach Tom O'Brien, but I'll pick his bunch to win outright in an ugly game, where both Offenses should struggle to move the pig. 

N.C. St. 13, S. Carolina 10

Oh, Baby!  It's that time again.............my favorite time, again.  I'm coming off a horrible season of prognostications.  However, I have lots of company in that regard. 

I just want to issue some quick thoughts on the season, before things get rolling tonight. 

1.)  Although the SEC is God Almighty and I mean that with all due respect, not frustation, I don't see Georgia in the BCS Title Game.  Despite their talent, their schedule is way too touch.

2.)  I was so looking forward to seeing if Florida's Defense was going to mesh together after a solid year of playing together.  With all of their injuries, we're not going to get the chance.  Like last season, Tebow and the gang will score a ton of points (if Percy Harvin is healthy enough) and their Defense will get victimized early and often.

3.)  I would luv to be wrong, but I don't see Ohio St. playing for a third straight National Title.  As a whole, their road schedule is brutal.  Even if they get by USC, they have a night game at Wisconsin to deal with.  On a side note, their games at Michigan St. and at Illinois could be potential pitfalls as well. 

4.)  I don't make Championship Game predictions prior to the season.  I think that's foolish.  That's like trying to predict the Final Four prior to the season.  However, the one team that I would pencil into the Title Game is Oklahoma.  With victories over an improved Big XII, the Sooners should get enough respect from the voters and the computers to put them into one of the top two spots when it's all said and done.

BEST BET   Ohio St. + 4 over LSU

I guess many of you saw this coming.................from me, that is.  Although not a "Homer", I have been pretty "Top Heavy" with my Big 10 picks during this bowl season. 

I know many people end up over thinking a game that has been hyped for so long.  I can assure you that isn't the case with me.  I had this game pegged from a month ago.  I haven't been chewing on morsels of this matchup, since it was made.  I think it was Einstein that said, "More often than not, the toughest predicaments and toughest questions end up having simple solutions".  That is the case here.  This game comes down to one aspect and one aspect only..............Todd Boeckman.  The outcome of this game rides on his arm, nothing else.  It doesn't get more complicated than that.  If he plays like he did all season, up until the last two games, Ohio St. will win.  If he plays like he did the last two games and makes poor decisions, then Ohio St. will lose.  Case closed. 

Now that I've narrowed down the outcome to a flip of the coin, let me tell you why I believe QB-Boeckman will play well.  First of all, Ohio State's best games have been played away from Columbus.  Among these road games, my beloved Buckeyes, featured three night games against conference opponents.  Todd Boeckman played better as each game presented itself.  In fact, he was playing so well at one point, that he almost snuck into the Heisman Trophy conversation.  Not bad for a first year starter that wasn't expected to produce much this season. 

With this being said, I'm glad this is supposed to be a virtual home game for LSU.  I want it to feel like a road game.  I hope that Ohio St. will be wearing their White jerseys.  I'm glad this game will be played in the state of Louisiana.  I couldn't care if the game was played in Baton Rouge or New Orleans or Bourboun St., Ken Dorsey's parents' house, the swamps, the Everglades, in a pit of alligators, bring it all on.  The more of these obstacles that are put in front of us, the more we will feed of them.  We have taken the "Us against the world mentality" for preparation and this will be the prevalent thought throughout the game.

Todd Boeckman's confidence will be derived from the play of our defense.  Lost in this sea of doubts, because we're playing an SEC team, has been the play of our defense and just how dominant they can be.  Last year our defense was surprisingly good, it wasn't supposed to be such.  We all saw how they melted on the grandest stage.  This year our "D" is legitimately the best.

Dual threat QB's, nuthin'!  I can't wait to thwart this notion as well.  Our forty, some odd, days of preparation have included this factor and whether it's Flynn or Perrilloux, we'll have an answer.  Our Secondary is good enough to play man to man, thus we'll be able to sneak a couple of added defenders up to the line and help stop first down runs from the QB's. 

Here's one more for ya':  we only surrender about (10) points per game.  Does anyone actually think that LSU is going to produce a significant amount of points?  If they get in the end zone more than once, I'll be surprised.  They're Red Zone offense is the pits.  This coupled with the fact that we don't surrender many TDs, lends itself to my making this pick a "Best Bet".  Getting points with Ohio St. is a steal. 

On a personal note, I've had some stressful difficulties that I've been dealing with since the Summer and my beloved boys have been a source of inspiration to me all season long.  I want to thank the Football Gods for giving us a shot at redemption.  A chance to right the wrong that took place last January.  I still can't believe that we're playing for a National Title in less than (24) hrs.  We weren't supposed to be this good this year.  I thought we would have lost three or four games, myself. 

Win or lose tomorrow night, my boys are going to make me proud.  Why, because unlike last year's Title Game, we are prepared for the fight of our lives.  We won't disappoint.  We won't overlook.  We will play with the pride that every Buckeye fan out there expects.  If we lose, it won't be by much, which makes the points a great play.  This time, we're all business and it'll show not only in our play, but by the looks on our faces.  Take notice tomorrow night at our faces and see how many have clinched teeth rather than smiles that we quickly wiped away by Florida last year.

Ohio St. 23, LSU 10

BEST BET Rutgers - 10 1/2 over Ball St.

 Rutgers are front runnin' bullies, which makes this match-up right up their collective allyes. 

Coach Schiano will have them pumped up for this meaningless bowl, which is a credit to his coaching abilities. 

QB-Teal will have all day to throw the pig and Rice will wear down the Cardinal defense, which won't take much.  Basically, Rutgers will have their way with Ball St. because they want to.  Like last year's Texas Bowl, Rutgers will want to.

Rutgers 45, Ball St. 22

Virginia Tech. - 3 1/2 over Kansas

On paper, this looks like a pretty even match-up................that is, until you compare the Strength of Schedules.  I know it's been said, but Kansas hasn't seen a defense like the one they'll have nightmares against in this game. 

I'm still not crazy about the Virginia Tech. offense, but their QB's are healthy and as long as they don't self destruct like they did against Georgia last year, they'll win this game handily, with defense and special teams alone.

Virginia Tech. 34, Kansas 11

Oklahoma - 7 1/2 over W. Virginia

 I cautiously make this pick, because I have great respect for the men from Morgantown.  I've particularly noticed how much better they are on defense this year.  What I don't know is what happened to Steve Slaton.  When Pat White went down against Pitt, as they had to do was give him the pig and let him do what he does.  At any rate, this is a pretty even matchup.  I like Oklahoma for two reasons:

1.)  What is the mindset of W. Virginia?  They were (24 1/2) point favs at home in their regular season finale.  All they had to do was beat Pitt and they would be playing for a National Title.  Further, when you consider all of the confusion surrounding the departure of Rich Rodriguez, how could they possibly be focused on this game. 

2.)  After last year's upset in this same bowl, Oklahoma has much more to prove than the Mountaineers.  They will be out for blood in this game and they just might get it from Pat White.  I can see him getting knocked out of this game as well, as he will take some mean shots.

As always, I hate to lay "The lumber", but I expect W. Virginia to run into a buzz saw of a Sooner bunch, looking for redemption.

Oklahoma 40, W. Virginia 21

Georgia - 7 1/2 over Hawaii

I think that all interested parties are way off on this game.  Everyone is in love with Colt Brennan and the potent Rainbow offense.  This line actually opened (9 1/2).  Many seem to think that Hawaii is this year's Boise St. from last year.  Oh, I beg to differ.  Let me tell you why:

Hawaii's Strength of Schedule was DEAD LAST and I mean, DEAD LAST for the entire season, up until their last two games.  Now their ranking is #116 among the teams on the mainland.  Congrats!  This is the same team that with Colt Brennan and their improved defense was life and death to beat LA-Tech., San Jose St. and completed the trifecta of magic tricks against Nevada.

Georgia is a huge step up in talent for these guys and over the course of a sixty minute game, this will be too much for the "Beach Boys" to handle.

Here's an amazing stat to keep in mind, Georgia is 7-1 against bowl teams.  I think that's the best that I've come across yet. 

I'll be the first to admit that Georgia isn't the best play against a high number.  I usually avoid them in this situation, but keep in mind their Sugar Bowl from two years ago.  Remember how sloppy they were against W. Virginia and how they dug themselves too deep of a hole to climb out of?  Well, if I can remember it, you can bet they won't forget it either. 

Georgia won't take this team lightly and Hawaii will get caught in the headlights along with the rest of the deer that have been in this situation.

Georgia 34, Hawaii 17

BEST BET Illinois + 13 1/2 over USC

 A (14) point favorite in a BCS Bowl?  "The Gods must be Crazy"!  I forget what movie that line was from or maybe it was the name of a movie; Anywho, this spread is a complete overreaction to the Trojan's success since getting healthy bodies back into uniform.  However, if you look deep into this match-up, it's a pretty even game. 

I know that I'm completely in the minority with this pick.  I have yet to hear anyone even think that this game will be relatively close.  Goodie!  Then when Illinois pulls off the shocker of the bowls, I can make claim to this upset and keep all of it to myself.  Whoops, I slipped out too soon.  A puritan can make a good case for Illinois to win this game and I'll do just that. 

Juice Williams controlling the clock and time of possession, Illinois is the team with the playmakers, not USC, despite being loaded, USC doesn't have the Mike Williams' and the Reggie Buschs' around (at least not at this point), USC gettting careless with the pig in some key moments, Illinois is sky high to keep their winning ways going and show that they belong on the same field with the big boys around the country, Ron Zook shows Pete Carroll that he can recruit too and, has, in developing this silent killer of a squad that has a special quality about them that you can't put your finger on.

See!  That wasn't so hard; But, do you believe it or do you mock it.  Watch the Illini make believers out of everyone, especially YOU, the one reading this and laughing.

Illinois 23, USC 20

Virginia + 6 over Texas Tech.

 This line looks out of whack, too me.  Virginia has won more games against a tougher schedule than Tech.  H-m-m-m-m-m-m!  Does someone know something that I don't know?  Am I missing something?  Maybe it's just public perception.  Well, let's take a look:

We all know about the potent Red Raider attack, but few have paid attention to Virginia's defense this year.  I think this game comes down to one aspect, can the Cavs put pressure on QB-Harrell?  Virginia averages over (3) sacks/game and I think they can sustain enough pressure to keep Tech. in check, even with their quick throws to the wide outs. 

I must admit that I never liked Al Groh as a coach, but he has done a great job this year without any kind of offense. 

Virginia is 4-1 against bowl teams, while Tech is a modest 2-4.  I think you've gotta' grab the points in this one.

Virginia 23, Texas Tech. 22

BEST BET Florida - 10 1/2 over Michigan

In my opinion, the oddsmakers can't make this line high enough.  Ten and a half?  No problem!  Let's face it, this is a terrible match-up for the scum from up North (couldn't help it) 

The Wolv'rines already tried the "Win one for the Gipper" approach and how did that work out?  No, Coach-Carr will ride off into the sunset with yet another Big "L" in a New Year's bowl game. 

There is just too much Tebow here for a beaten defense that still can't stop or even slow down a duel threat QB.  The Gators might score every time they touch the ball.

I know Michigan.  I watch many a game from year to year and once they fall behind, they're going to get frustrated trying to keep up with the Florida fire power.  This is when they start turning the ball over and that's when this game turns into a rout. 

Florida 51, Michigan 27

Wisconsin + 1 1/2 over Tennessee

I'm not sure what this line is going to end up at in light of the recent Tennessee suspensions, but I liked Wisky before any of this came down.  I'll simply fill in the pointspread once it is adjusted. 

12/27:  Adjusted pointspread added. 

In a game like this, I like the better defensive team with a Running Game instead over a team that lives by the pass with very inconsistent defense.  P.J. HIll should get to touch the pig and even without his services, the Wisky "O" line should plow holes through the subpar Vol "D" line. 

Tennessee is the best in the country at protecting their QB, but on the only side of the line, it's anyone's guess which unit will show up. 

Wisconsin is a good bowl team who usually finds ways to win these games.  Look for Tennessee to drop a second straight Outback Bowl, despite Erik Ainge's superb play.

Wisconsin 28, Tennessee 21