I will be travelling for a couple of weeks, so I will be unable to blog or comment for that period. Hence, I just wanted to take the time to quickly weigh in on the upcoming Stanley Cup Final. In Round 3 I went 2-0, bringing my record up to 7-7. This is my chance to end above .500!
There is obviously alot to like about these two teams. Both have gotten solid goaltending. Both have tremendous offense, although I would give Pittsburg a slight advantage there. And both have, for the most part, dominated their opposition through these playoffs. For all the talk of Detroit's experience, to me the real difference lies within the defence. It is an age-old adage, but it is true: defence wins championships. No matter how good the Pens' offense may be, the fact is that Detroit have typically allowed around 20-22 shots per game. And when their defence has faltered, Osgood has been there to bail them out. Furthermore, I just cannot shake the notion that the West is superior to the East, making Detroit's playoff performance all the more impressive to me.
In the end, the bottom line is that I can hardly see myself betting against names like Lidstrom, Chelios and Rafalski. Detroit in 6.
Also, I would like to take the time to thank all of the people who have been commenting on my pieces lately. I realize I do not blog as regularly as I should, the intervals between some of my posts clearly speak to that, so I truly appreciate all of you who read and iniate discussion, it really makes doing this a lot of fun.
After going an abysmal 1-3 in the second round, leaving my two round record at 5-7, I will now chime in with my Conference Finals picks, albeit a bit late.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Pittsburg (2) vs. Philadelphia (6)
Philadelphia proved to be a pain in my you-know-what. My first feeling was that the Habs wouldn't make it past the second round, but I made the mistake of underestimating the Flyers a tad bit. I say only a tad bit because I did predict that series would go to seven games.
But, without taking away anything that the Flyers have accomplished, I simply cannot see them slowing down the Penguins. Offensively there is simply too much going on with these young Pens that I just don't envision the Flyers defense being able to contain them sufficiently. And even if the Penguins get behind the eight-ball early in a game, they have shown the ability to come back while the Flyers have become notorious for being unable to properly hold on to their leads. In a sense, it is miraculous the Flyers made it this far while having such trouble protecting a two-goal advantage.
The Flyers offense is obviously also very deep, but I don't think it can rival with the Pens on that level. Daniel Briere needs to be better, because I felt he was invisible in the series against Montreal, despite what his point totals seem to indicate. R.J Umberger was outstanding, but lets be honest here, half of his goals would not have gone in if Carey Price wasn't playing like Jim Carey (easy pun, I couldn't resist).
Pittsburg wins the inter-state battle in 6 games
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Detroit (1) vs. Dallas (5)
Dallas has undoubtedly been impressive in these playoffs, rolling over the defending cup Champs and the talented San Jose Sharks. That will teach me to believe that the Sharks would stop choking in the playoffs. Dumb dumb dumb. I also made the mistake of thinking Forsberg would be remotely healthy and Theodore remotely good. Dumber dumber dumber.
Marty Turco's play has been stellar while Dallas has been getting contributions throughout their lineup. Their defense has been excellent and has gotten a big boost from Zubov's return.
Having said all that, I cannot bet against Detroit here. Not only do they have a player with the funkiest nickname of all time, "The Mule", but they have a lineup in which each role seems to be filled to perfection. Skill and clutch scoring ooze from the likes of Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Franzen. Draper and Maltby can shut down the best of them. Lidstrom is one of the best blueliners of all time. Drake and McCarthy provide old school grit. It just goes on like that when you skim through the Wing's line up.
- In my round 2 predictions I said that I felt Colorado would upset Detroit due to the strong play of Jose Theodore and the continued health of Peter Forsberg. In game 1, which the Avalanche lost 4-3, Theodore got pulled and Forsberg did not play due to a groin problem. Well, lets just say I've felt smarter in the past.
- One has to wonder if the Flyers could hold on to a lead if their mother's lives depended on it. Blown leads cost them two games against the Caps, almost cost them game 7 and now has cost them game 1 against Montreal.
- Montreal's powerplay has not been spectacular thus far in these playoffs, but their unit has come up with some big goals. Of the 4 goals scored on their powerplay, two of them were game winners while another one, from last night, tied the game to send it to overtime. The percentage might not look great, but it still has come up huge.
- This will surely not get much press, but I would like to congratulate the Hungarian national men's hockey team who won their IIHF Division 1B tournamement, hence allowing them to move up to the top international division for the first time in 70 years. They went a perfect 5-0 in the tournament, lead by the terrific goaltending of former Flames prospect Levente Szuper.
Well, in the first round I went 4 for 8 with my predictions. The same success rate as the flip of a coin. Still, I will once again put in my 2 cents for the next round.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Montreal (1) vs. Philadelphia (6)
Montreal has been very uneven in these playoffs and I am not quite sure which version of the team will show up for this second round match-up. One would have to think that they learned from their hard-fought series against Boston and should be mentally prepared. Regardless, the Flyers are not to be taken lightly. They possess a high powered offence that features six 20+ goal scorers the post-season's leading scorer in Daniel Briere. Much of the same can be said about Montreal, and if Kovalev and the Kostitsyn's keep up their play from game 7 this could be a surprisingly offensive series.
Philadelphia’s backline is a slow group and could be exploited by Montreal's speedy forwards. Jason Smith has not looked like himself in these playoffs, committing several mental errors, such as on Ovechkin's tying goal in game 7, and his -7 is second worst in these playoffs. Having said that, the Flyers' defenders aren't inept either, Coburn has looked good in these playoffs while Randy Jones and Derian Hatcher are at a league best +5.
Although Andrei Markov has been underachieving, Montreal's defence corps as a whole has been good, led by the strong physical presence of Mike Komisarek and Roman Hamrlik. It would be very welcome if the defence joined the rush more often. This is not slight to him, but Patrice Brisebois should not be the one leading defensemen in scoring. Furthermore, the defence will need to obtain better support from the forwards and make sure to clear the zone every time they get a chance. Far too often against Boston the Habs were unable to clear their zone, most notably in game 6 when Kovalev’s failed attempt lead to a Bruins’ goal.
Carey Price has been excellent for most of these playoffs and has shown great mental toughness. Montreal has a few intangibles going for them as well, namely a healthy squad and home ice advantage. In the end, this should be a tough, close and exciting series. I see Montreal taking the series in 7 games.
Pittsburg (2) vs. New York Rangers (5)
The Rangers looked really good against the Devils, way better than I expected in fact. Sean Avery got into Brodeur's kitchen and the Devil's netminder has been crying for his mommy since, refusing to shake Avery’s hand and blaming him for his refusal of Team Canada's invitation to the World Championships. But, Brodeur's whining is a subject for another post. The Rangers and Sean Avery will not have the same freedom to disturb Pittsburg's star players simply because Gary Roberts and Georges Laraque will keep them in check.
New York's defence may have looked brilliant against New Jersey but they will face an incredible challenge against the high-powered Pens, who feature stellar offensive players in Crosby, Malkin, Sykora, Hossa, Gonchar, Malone and Whitney while others, such as Talbot, Dupuis and Roberts, can also provide some scoring.
The Rangers are not push-overs and feature an impressive cast themselves, but Pittsburgh has too much here and, as long as Fleury holds the fort, Pittsburgh will take the series in 6 games.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit (1) vs. Colorado (6)
Detroit is an impressive squad, are blessed with tremendous depth and skill and can rely on two competent netminders. But to me Colorado holds the keys to this series if they can answer a few important questions: 1) Can Theodore keep up his fantastic play? 2) Can Forsberg stay healthy? 3) Can Statsny chip in offensively, he who only has one point so far in these playoffs?
I think Theodore will keep up his hot play and that Forsberg stays healthy, leading Colorado past Detroit in six games. (Not too sure about Statsny, but if Theodore and Forsberg hold up their end of the bargain, it won't matter.)
San Jose (2) vs. Dallas (5)
San Jose passed an important test in the first round and has had contributions throughout their line up. The same can be said for Marty Turco and the Dallas Stars, who won their first playoff round since 2002. The truth is, there are a lot of similarities’ here.
Marleau has looked great so far for the Sharks, he who faced heavy criticism from management, media and fans over the past 12 months. Thornton has also been able to chip in offensively, but many still feel he could bring his game up another notch. For the Stars, Ribeiro has broken out in these playoffs with 8 points while Lethinen, Modano and Morrow have been their usual selves.
Nabokov is a Vezina-trophy candidate. Marty Turco continues to exorcise his playoff demons with another solid performance.
In the end, what tips the scales to me here is the defence. Mind you, the Stars have a solid backline, but with Zubov and Boucher out, it gives an edge to the Sharks. Not enough can be said about Stéphane Robidas marvellous playoff performance, but he cannot always be on the ice and Ron Wilson will be able to exploit this situation by obtaining favourable match ups for his offensive players.
More often than not I try to avoid covering subjects that I feel have been beaten to death, but the temptation of throwing in my playoff predictions is just too much. Maybe I will look like a genius, or maybe i'll look really foolish. Here goes nothing!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Montreal (1) vs Boston (8)
We have all heard of Montreal's dominance of Boston and their great powerplay, so I will not review that for the umpteenth time. Suffice to say Montreal's offensive depth is impressive with 7 50+ point scorers on their team. Same with the defence, Streit and Dandenault have been used at forward most of the season but, should injuries arise, they can pinch in on D. Bouillon and Komisarek should be healthy.
Much has been made of Zdeno Chara's importance in this series, but I for one think he is one of the most overrated players in the league. Players may be intimidated by his size and strength, but when good pressure and forechecking are applied I find that he often reacts poorly. His size and reach may save him at times, but with the increased intensity of the playoffs his flaws will be exposed. There is a reason he was a playoff scapegoat in Ottawa and that they chose to retain Redden instead. As for the rest of the Boston squad, they simply do not have the depth to cope with Montreal's multi-pronged attack, especially with the unfortunate injuries that befell their squad. On the other hand, I can't help but be fearful of them, they are tough, have nothing to lose and seem "due" to win against Montreal.
As far as goaltending is concerned, we have two playoff rookies here but I think that is a non factor with these two individuals. Carey Price seems almost zen in goal while Thomas is an extremly hard worker who has seen his share of hockey in his life, I don't see either "choking".
Montreal should prevail in 6 games, but Boston won't make it easy.
Pittsburg (2) vs Ottawa (7)
Ottawa is an absolutely jumbled mess right now. The team seems disoriented, injuries have ravaged them and they do not have the depth of a year ago. On the other hand, Pittsburg has learned from its experience from last year and will have a lot to prove in this rematch. Marian Hossa will also be looking to exorcise his playoff demons, especially against his former club.
Pittsburg will make it as painless as possible for Ottawa in 5 games.
Washington (3) vs Philadelphia (6)
THE story of the year has to be the spectacular come back of the Capitals to storm back atop their division. I had predicted earlier in the year that they would win their division, but I wasn't expecting it in such spectacular fashion. I don't see Philadelphia stopping Washington's run just yet, especially with the great acquisitions made by George McPhee.
Washington keeps on rolling, winning it in 6 games.
New Jersey (4) vs New York Rangers (5)
Martin Brodeur.
New Jersey takes this intense rivalry in 7 games
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit (1) vs Nashville (8)
Nashville always put up a tough fight against Detroit and they should once again do so here. This series almost seems like a possible upset to me. In the end though Detroit's skill, experience and depth are undeniable. The only major variable here is the goaltending of both teams, but unless Detroit's tandem falters in spectacular fashion or that Nashville's netminding is all-world, Hockeytown should handle Music City.
Detroit in 6 games, Nashville always makes it a battle.
San Jose (2) vs Calgary (7)
Joe Thornton does not seem like a big-game player to me and his San Jose squad seems unable to put the pieces together come spring. Mikka Kiprusoff has had an off year, but should he bounce back in the playoffs the Sharks will hit an early wall in their playoff run. Calgary has a tough squad and is ladden with experienced players who know how to win in the playoffs.
Calgary upsets San Jose in 7 games
Minnesota (3) vs Colorado (6)
Colorado is hoping that turning the clock back will push them forward. I find that trying to recreate the past is an often foolish endeavour, but Colorado's recipe seems to be working. Should Theodore perfome up to par, the Avs should make life miserable for the Wild.
Colorado in 6 games
Anaheim (4) vs Dallas (5)
This in an incredibly close match up and whoever comes out of this war will be a very fatigued squad coming into the next round. Anaheim's experience and defensive depth should give them the edge in this series. However, Dallas can stiffle its opponents defensively and having a former Conn-Smythe winner and the all-time scoring American on their team helps.
Anaheim in 7 games, but I could have just flipped a coin...
I have grown weary of constantly arguing about this topic in Spector's Blog, so I will simply state my argument in the public forum: Osgood is a starting caliber goaltender.
Not only does he have two Stanley Cup rings to his credit, one in which he lead the Wings with a 16-6 record and a .925 save percentage, but has managed a solid .907 carreer save percentage in the regular season and .910 carreer save percentage in the playoffs. His numbers might not be earth-shattering, however keep in mind that that Brodeur's and Roy's carreer regular season save percentages are .912 and .910 respectively. Although, make no mistake, I am not putting Osgood in their category. He also has played in over 600 games, compiling 325 wins, good for 17th all time, and 43 shutouts, putting him 25th all time.
However, I realize that most operate on a 'what have you done for me lately' philosophy, yet even with that perspective, Osgood's more recent performances deserve respect. In 2001-2002, after being shipped from the perennial contenders that are the Detroit Red Wings to the rebuilding Islanders, he managed a 32-25-6 record while posting a .910 save percentage and leading the Isles to their first palyoff berth in seven years. Although he had a poor 2002-2003 campaign split between the Islanders and Blues, he rebounded the following year in St. Louis with a 31-25-8 record and a .910 save percentage and compiled a solid 20-6-0 record as a backup in Detroit this year.
I understand all this is a matter of opinion and that spewing out stats indefinetly becomes pointless, but one must admit that his numbers are above average and that he still has the credit of being a part of two championship teams. I find that it is a shame that a netminder who has led his team to the Stanley Cup and steered lesser teams into the playoffs has gotten so little respect from fans around the league. Often, people have pointed out that Detroit was such a great team that they would have won in 1998 no matter whom they had in net, however the truth is that regardless of how good your team is, your goaltending has to be excellent to win in the playoffs, just ask the Flyers.
Brian Burke is a shrewd and intelligent manager whom I have always held in very high regard. He is also a very tough negotiator who will rarely budge from his position. However, I must say I strongly question his wisdom in the management of the Vishnevski affair.
First of all, I simply cannot comprehend why Burke finds his arbitration award so unacceptable. I realize for most people 1.55$ million is a boatload of money, but in the NHL it only represents 3.5% of a teams salary cap and, with this years inflated market for defensemen, seems like a pretty fair deal. Second of all, unless Burke trades Vishnevski for another blueliner, I do not see how Burke can afford to lose him. I realize that he has Pronger and Niedermayer, but losing Salei, Vishnevski and Smid in one off-season could be a hard blow to the Ducks defensive depth.
However, trading Fedorov for Beauchemin did not seem like much of a move at the time either, so I guess I will just have to give Burke the benefit of the doubt.
Dominik Hasek with the Red Wings: Bad and Good
I know many Wings fans, as well as others in the hockey world, will question Ken Holland's wisdom in acquiring Dominik Hasek, and rightfully so. After all, Hasek is on the tail-end of his carreer, has shown to be a very injury prone and has a flair for the melodramatic.
Nonetheless, I get the feeling Holland could come out looking like a genious from this deal. Not only has he equipped himself with two goaltenders who previously led the Red Wings to the Stanley Cup, but he has done so without having to give up any assets or much cap space. However, the real genius is in the fact that he has allowed more time for his goaltending prospects, namely Jimmy Howard, Joey MacDonald and Drew MacIntyre, to hopefully mature into bonafide NHLers. Come 07-08, if one of the Wings young prospects steps up into the goaltending position as a result of that extra seasoning in the minors, Holland will have been able to allow for that extra development time without sacrificing any players in a trade or putting pressure on his young goaltenders.
Can someone please explain to me why no one has signed, or seemingly even expressed interest, in goaltender Manny Legace. After all, he had solid numbers last season and is a team player who would be willing to serve as a starter or a backup.
Do not tell me that his mediocre playoff performance completly killed his value as he still remains a solid player capable of giving his team quality goaltending. Besides, Martin Gerber's horrific playoff performance did not stop the Senators from signing him to a hefty deal nor did Belfour's wonky back stop him from heading to the Panthers.
Plus, the teams that could really use (or could have used) his steady presence are teams that simply need to worry about getting to the playoffs, nevermind performing in the playoffs. Namely teams going with young starters such as the St. Louis Blues, Columbus Blue Jackets, Florida Panthers and Atlanta Thrashers should take (or should have taken) a long look at Legace.
In the end, those teams seem more interested in taking risks with older or lesser players such as Ty Conklin or Ed Belfour. Come April, many of them could look like fools for not investing in a solid, veteran goaltender.
Am I the only one who thinks that the Maple Leafs offseason has been marked by a series of terrible moves? The recent signing of Michael Peca seems like a mediocre one considering the average regular season he just had and his declining production. He simply seems awfully expensive for a player who will most likely end up on one of the bottom two lines and their are plenty other players on the market who could have filled that role.
The signing of two overpriced defenseman in Pavel Kubina and Hal Gill was not much better, especially considering the fact that their were many cheaper options available to add depth to the Toronto blueline. Namely Brendan Witt, Nathan Dempsey and Daniel Tjarnqvist could have filled the gap. Hal Gill was considered slow in the pre-lockout NHL and the fact he still has a regular job in today's NHL simply baffles me.
Finally, trading with a division rival in order to obtain Andrew Raycroft, who has yet to fully establish himself in the NHL, sure does not seem like the smartest move, especially considering the insane number of top quality netminders available this offseason.
Ed Belfour
Speaking of goaltenders, can someone please explain to me why there is so much interest in Ed Belfour? The Florida Panthers and the Detroit Red Wings are both rumoured to be interested in his services, yet to me he seems in no condition to be a starter in the NHL anymore. No offense to Belfour who had a stellar carreer, but lets be honest, I would much rather have a Toskala, Nabokov, Giguere, Aebischer or Biron as my starter.
Eric Dazé
I know Eric Dazé is another player that seems to be in no condition to play, but unlike a goaltender offense can be much more easily replaced. That leads me to wonder why there seems to be so little interest in the 30 year old winger. I realize his health is a concern, but when healthy he is easily one of the productive players on his team, scoring over 20 goals every season in which he has played more than 50 games. Besides, due to his injury history his asking price should not be too steep, hence not creating cap problems. For offense starved teams such as Washington or Calgary, he could be an inexpensive option even if he only plays half the season. Besides, in Washington it would give Ovechkin a linemate who actually can score.
While I typically call Quebec City my home, I am currently studying abroad in beautiful Copenhagen, Denmark and going to bed at ungodly hours watching hockey.
I've been a Montreal Canadiens fan since the age of 13 and now I have turned to blogging to share my views about my favourite team and the league with other insightful readers and bloggers.
