Just as we suspected, the landscape of the Western Conference continues to change-- which means the big trades that seemed so clearly defined have taken a U-turn as well.
In other words, this is all still shaking out.
We’re all still flabbergasted by the crazy 22-game winning streak of the Rockets -- second only to the 1971-72 Lakers in NBA history -- which has leapfrogged them into the top seed of the West. It’s a remarkable story that is continuing to add chapters.
And then there is the eye-widening tale of Shaquille O’Neal’s 330 pounds of mass leaping into the stands last Sunday that may not only have tilted the foundation of the U.S. Airways Center in Phoenix, but the Pacific Division and the West as well.
You see, well on their way to yet another defeat at the hands of the Spurs, O’Neal’s wild hustle play to save a ball from going out of bounds ignited the home crowd and sparked the Suns to a come-from-behind win and that may have very well changed everything.
While everyone has been singing the praises of the Pau Gasol theft from the Grizzlies that pushed the Lakers to the top of the conference and the Pacific Division (and rightfully so); lost in the excitement had been Gasol’s failure to play 60 games in two of the previous three seasons with foot problems until he sprained his ankle last week. Now he’s out indefinitely.
Not coincidentally the Lakers have lost three of four.
People had begun writing off the Mavericks for giving up so much to get Jason Kidd. Now they’ve won five in a row.
Throw in the Hornets, Jazz and Warriors keeping pace and a measly 4.5 games separate the top eight teams in the West with 4½ weeks left in the season.
So how did O’Neal’s play change the balance other than the obvious effect on the Richter scale in the southwest?
It guaranteed for the first time in five years the Suns wouldn’t lose the season series to the Spurs, and at least gave some credence to the concept shared by Suns owner Robert Sarver and general manager Steve Kerr that O’Neal could be the difference-maker matching up against Tim Duncan and the San Antonio machine.
That’s not to say you can point to that one play or game as to why the Spurs have lost three in a row and five of six. But for whatever reason, their edge is gone and the Suns have grabbed it. Sure, the Suns miss Shawn Marion -- his rebounding, nose for the ball, perimeter defense and speed on the floor -- from the O’Neal trade. They may even miss him more as time progresses.
Too many people gave up on the Suns too quickly when they lost four of their first six with O’Neal in the lineup. It has already become patently obvious Boris Diaw does not have the aggressive nature to pick up the slack for Marion. His 2006 NBA Most Improved Player Award was more a product of circumstances than how significant a role he would play in the Suns future with a freshly minted and fat long-term contract. That will become more of a story as time progresses. The drop in Leandro Barbosa’s productivity this season hasn’t helped either.
And yet, whatever Grant Hill has left in the tank will pick up some of the slack for time being. Even the recently signed Gordan Giricek had a big hand in their 79 first-half points as they trashed the Kings Saturday night. That helps the cause, too.
But Amare Stoudemire is approaching pre-knee surgery numbers and that speaks volumes for what the Suns have figured out around O’Neal.
The key to what has brought the Suns back to within a game of the Lakers in the division and two games of the lead they had in the Western Conference has been the adjustment made by not only O’Neal, but point guard Steve Nash and Mike D’Antoni -- the masterminds to this franchise. And Stoudemire is now reaping the benefits.
Of course O’Neal doesn’t fit into their fun-and-gun offense that turned the NBA upside down; nor does his skill-set work in their halfcourt pick-and-roll preference. Consequently, the response was D’Antoni is a one-trick pony as a coach and Nash has lost his remarkable feel that made him the top point guard in the game the past three seasons. To arrive at those conclusions in a couple of weeks was ludicrous.
Given time, D’Antoni has stolen a page out of the Tex Winter’s legendary triangle offense to run some of the plays through O’Neal. Now Nash knows not only is the lane more cluttered with bodies, he throws lob passes at or below the rim for O’Neal to dunk. O’Neal’s presence in the post has also opened up Stoudemire’s vastly underrated mid-range game. This wasn’t going to be a sudden change. It just required some time and patience, which nobody seems to have these days in any walk of life -- let alone in the world of sports.
That’s not to say the Suns are now all on the same page and will run the table come playoff time into the Finals. Rather, the turnaround has added credence to the notion that they need to overcome the physical and mental obstacle posed by the Spurs. The Suns are just 8-15 against them with Nash since 2004-05 explaining why their 2-1 series lead this season is so vital. And in the big picture, O’Neal’s presence to deal with Duncan removes a tremendous load from Stoudemire’s shoulders.
With anywhere from 15-17 games remaining on the regular season for these eight teams in the West -- and the Rockets playing in their own stratosphere -- it’s impossible to get a handle on the last team standing in this amazing race. But the past week has reinforced what we learned many years ago … it may get cloudy in Phoenix from time to time, but it never stays that way for long.
In this wacky NBA season when as many as 10 teams are legitimate contenders to take the title away from the defending champion Spurs, three major stars have changed teams in the past two weeks. That unprecedented movement has changed the landscape of the already fierce competition in the Western Conference.
When the Mavericks finally acquired point guard Jason Kidd from the Nets along with Malik Allen and Antoine Wright in exchange for Devin Harris, Trenton Hassell, DeSagana Diop, Maurice Ager, retired forward Keith Van Horn, two first-round picks and $3 million, it gave the Mavs the tough leadership they’ve been lacking while on the brink of a title the past three seasons.
But is it bigger than the Suns’ acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal from the Heat for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks on Feb. 6?
And how do either one of them compare to the Lakers receiving Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, two first-round draft choices and the rights to Marc Gasol on Feb. 4?
They obviously were all major moves with the intent being winning now. Consider for a moment the Suns (37-16) entered the All-Star break with the second-best record in the West – just percentage points behind the 36-15 Hornets, while the Lakers (35-17) have the third-best record, the Spurs (34-17) fourth and the Mavs (35-18) fifth. You want a great stretch run? This promises to be one of the most exciting races of the past 20 years considering nine teams are within 4½ games of the top spot in the West.
But to have players of this magnitude traded in such a short period of time – and some potentially busy days remain before the Feb. 21 trade deadline – it has to make you wonder if anything else is about to happen. Will the Nuggets make a move for Ron Artest or Sam Cassell? Will the Jazz look for help up front with the likes of Artest or Ben Wallace?
Considering the movement of Gasol, O’Neal and Kidd, who can doubt anything at this point?
And yet, there is a difference between the three big deals … and the Lakers win, big time.
Both the Mavs acquiring Kidd and the Suns getting O’Neal are gambles that may pay dividends in the short term, but they will suffer ramifications in the long run.
For the Mavs, giving up Harris and Diop is a questionable decision, if only because Kidd has maybe two more years of effectiveness after this season on legs that will turn 35 next month. At the same time, they will have lost the interior defense of Diop while sticking with Erick Dampier, who is at best good for a couple games in a row before he’s hurt, ineffective or just indifferent. And by the time Kidd is done, Harris has the potential to grow into an effective, lightning-quick point guard comparable to Tony Parker.
Kidd does give them the toughness and leadership that has prevented them from winning it all in recent years. Yes, they’re still near the top of the Western Conference with their record. But that’s because they have more overall talent that nearly every team in the league. They’re 12-14 on the road this season compared to 31-10 a year ago, and just how they would compete with the best of the West in the postseason is highly debatable. This move reeks of desperation, and yet with Kidd hitting the boards, distributing the ball and his relentless defense, they’re better suited for a playoff run this season. Beyond the 2008 playoffs, though, all bets are off.
The same goes for the Suns getting O’Neal. He’ll be 36 in three weeks. He’s played in only 32 games this season, as his 330-pound frame continues to slide down that slippery slope toward retirement. He has been more ineffective than his 14.2 points and 7.8 rebounds would indicate. His knees, hips, feet and quads – essentially his lower extremities, period – have virtually no tread left. Of course, he will be a factor on defense because he has been one of the greatest centers ever, knows the game, and at 7-1, 330, still takes up an enormous amount of space. He can pass the ball on offense and dunk.
But this still flies right in the face of coach Mike D’Antoni’s offense, while ignoring how ineffectual O’Neal is in the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop, which is the bread and butter of what All-Star point guard Steve Nash does in the half-court offense.
That’s not to say Marion has more value than O’Neal. He had become a constant pain to the organization, whining in the locker room about shots, and wanting a huge extension that was far greater than his value. Nonetheless, he’s the guy who matched up defensively with the other team’s best scorer. He’s the one who made the steal or the block, grabbed the loose ball or the big rebound. Boris Diaw will run the floor, move the ball better and hit some open jumpers. But he doesn’t play at the same speed. Grant Hill has a little left in the tank, but not what Marion brought to the table either. And let’s not forget that Nash has back and shoulder issues at the age of 34.
This move maybe doesn’t have the same long-term ramifications as the Mavs giving up Harris and Diop, plus there’s always the outside shot that O’Neal really can get it together and have some juice left for a playoff run. But this is probably the last gasp for that to happen for the Big Question Mark. It’s not a bad bet, just another short-term gamble.
As for the Lakers, there was no gamble at all. The Grizzlies were tired of losing and paying Gasol so much money, and he was tired of being there. What the Lakers gave up to get an All-Star 7-footer amounted to a few shirts, two pairs of pants and some free airline tickets. The Lakers had already helped their depth in the off-season and the bench was remarkably effective around Kobe Bryant. Their problem isn’t the roster. It’s injuries. Not only did they lose young, blossoming 7-foot center Andrew Bynum to a knee injury that will keep him out another month, it’s impossible to know how the 20-year-old will respond to his first injury and the heat of a playoff run. And now what was considered a minor dislocation to the pinky finger on Bryant’s right hand has manifested into a torn ligament and surgery that would keep him out six weeks has been recommended.
This trade was a steal. But the injuries will make it difficult for the Lakers to win it all this season. Bryant has to make a decision quickly about what to do with his hand, and neither option is good. But even if they hang in there somehow and make a run at it this season, that’s not the point. They will be better next year with Bynum having another season of growth and playing next to Gasol and Lamar Odom, with Bryant and either Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar at point – plus that swollen bench. So if the Lakers can’t quite get it together this spring, it’s easy to go on the record right now as saying the Lakers are the favorites to win the NBA title in 2009.
So which of the three teams made the best deal?
No contest … now if all those fair weather Lakers fans calling for general manager Mitch Kupchak’s head will please step forward, grab your ankles and take your medicine, we can get this over with. Mitch, will you please take the big paddle with the holes in it? And when we’re finished, the knuckleheads in L.A. will have no alternative but to look at you and respond, “Thank you sir, may I have another.”
If we’re to believe the Big Buzz … he’s the biggest and most expensive package of damaged goods ever on the NBA trade market and on the verge of being dealt.
He is Shaquille O’Neal, and if it’s true that the Phoenix Suns are ready and willing to acquire the fading Miami Heat center in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks, the Western Conference race just got infinitely more interesting despite the physical problems of the 7-1 O’Neal, who turns 36 next month.
Superficially, it will be a big relief for Heat superstar guard Dwyane Wade to get Marion for help as opposed to the terminally injured O’Neal – and Banks will help their sad point guard situation some. But the story here is about how O’Neal – The Big Question Mark – has any trade value at all as the Feb. 21 trade deadline comes upon us.
Sure, the Suns figure to have a rapidly closing window with the aging of point guard Steve Nash and Grant Hill, plus O’Neal would allow Amare Stoudemire to match up at his more natural power forward position. The move would also presumably allow the Suns to play both their natural speed game and in the halfcourt against the likes of the Spurs, Jazz, Nuggets and Rockets among others in the West.
Then again, that’s assuming a lot … such as whether or not O’Neal can actually fit through the window; and just what could the criteria be for him to pass his physical – considering the hip, knee and ankle problems that have manifested over the years.
So before we get too carried away with this, let’s get realistic for a moment about the Big Fella. He has missed 14 games for the woebegone 9-37 Heat and coach Pat Riley this season and averaged less than 50 games over the previous two seasons.
His 325-pound plus body is suffering the consequences of his 16-year career with hip, knee and ankle problems that have rendered him just a shadow of his former self – although it is that very large shadow that still makes him attractive to the Suns to take a big rip at the wide open 2008 title. Obviously the feeling is if they can prop him up for minor minutes until late in the season, he could be the deciding factor in the playoffs.
Although he has missed so many games, and is averaging a career-low 28.5 minutes more because of foul trouble than anything else, O’Neal still is averaging 14.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.66 blocks – all of which pales is comparison to his career averages of 25.6 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. Nonetheless, just his sheer physical presence is a big factor in every game, and if you put him in the middle of a team like the Suns, they become that much more frightening in the big picture – on paper.
Outside of the Suns, would anybody else have taken a deal for Shaq seriously?
Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has always been intrigued by the possibility of adding him to the middle … how about Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier for Shaq?
And what about the Nets, so intent on dealing Jason Kidd? Would a package of Kidd, Josh Boone or Sean Williams and Boki Nachbar – with Ricky Davis coming back with O’Neal to make the salaries work, be intriguing to both teams?
LeBron James and the Cavs need something else, but O’Neal certainly isn’t it.
The Denver Nuggets, as always, are working the phones hard - but primarily to see if they can get a point guard, such as Kidd or Sam Cassell. They certainly wouldn’t be better off gambling on the Big Question Mark than having Marcus Camby, the reigning defensive player of the year and Kenyon Martin, who is remarkably getting closer every day to being all the way back from a second microfracture surgery.
Everyone likes to look at the Chicago Bulls, because they have failed so miserably this season and they have a slew of young players who aren’t quite cutting it. If so inclined, they can easily throw Ben Wallace’s contract in there with Thabo Sefolosha and either Ben Gordon or Kirk Hinrich. Does that make any sense for the Bulls to get 2½ seasons of Shaq? He’d be the ultimate low-post presence they haven’t had, however diminished his movement may be – but would that make them serious contenders? That would be a big risk, although they’d still have Hinrich or Gordon, Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni. They would be a lot more formidable, and Gordon, Wallace and Sefolosha make the Heat much better as well – provided the Heat can agree to a contract with Gordon.
But it isn’t likely owner Jerry Reinsdorf would commit that $50 million to O’Neal through 2010. In fact, it doesn’t make sense for anybody … almost.
And that brings us back to the Suns, who have had issues with the 29-year-old Marion for years, both in the locker room and over money. Now he wants an extension that will pay him in the $20 million range per season, when the $17 million per he’s making over the next two seasons is a stretch. He has also very often been a disappointment in the postseason offensively, which has hurt them in big games.
On the other hand, there are those who believe he is the lightning rod for the success because he is the guy who gets the loose ball, comes up with the steal, blocks shots and runs the floor better than anyone else on the team.
And they almost won it last season, so is it worth the gamble with quasi-Shaq?
Realistically it makes more sense for the Suns than other teams, if only because Marion’s head and mouth may no longer be worth the internal aggravation And the Suns won’t have to play O’Neal big minutes, just enough to indoctrinate him into the halfcourt offense.
They have reportedly brought in the Big Question Mark for their medical team and the rest of the big shots in the organization to take a good look at his physical condition. But you’d have to think if they peer too closely, it’s only logical they’ll find that to deal a talented young player such as Marion and commit the nearly $10 million left of his contract this season and $20 million in each of the next two years is really a shot in the dark for a guy obviously on his last legs – despite their obvious belief that this is their best chance for a title – which would be O’Neal’s fifth.
The logic is if nothing else they’ve found on the market for Marion is attractive and they have to pay him about the same money as O’Neal, owner Robert Sarver figures it’s worth the risk. That’s a tough call, but it’s his money.