The way NASCAR's Sprint Cup championship is set up, there are twenty-six "regular season" races, all of equal value toward qualifying for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Sure, there are a couple of races (the Daytona 500, obviously comes to mind) that are more *prestigious*, but at the end of the year, a win at Daytona counts the same as a win at Martinsville or Pocono.
However, there is a group of teams that don't experience that reality - the ones that are battling to stay in the top-35 in owners points. For those teams, the first five races are far more important than the rest, because if they fail to stay in the top-35 and fail to make the field in qualifying (or because qualifying was rained out) even ONE time, their efforts to reach the top-35 will be severely hampered for the rest of the year. Putting an increased emphasis on the first five races for a handful of teams doesn't seem fair.
Here's an example. It is no secret that A.J. Allmendinger has struggled to make races in the #84 Red Bull Toyota. After failing to make half the races last year, A.J. was outside the top-35 headed to Daytona. At Daytona, he barely missed making the 500 field, then qualifying rained out at Fontana, leaving A.J. out of the field, and at Las Vegas he missed the race again despite being 34th-fastest in qualifying, thanks to the top-35 rule.
After zero races in three attempts, the Red Bull guys turned to Mike Skinner to help them get the car into the field, and he has, turning in four straight successful qualifying runs and running well enough at Atlanta to move them up in owners points to make the field at Bristol when qualifying was rained out there. Despite these efforts, the #84 team is still mired in 40th in owners points, 111 points out of 35th.
Unfortunately for the #84 team, the circumstances of the first three races have put them behind the 8-ball. There really is no way for them to get into the top-35 without some at least a couple of top-10 finishes, which would be way above anything they have achieved, and the longer the season goes on the less likely they are to be able to make up ground and get into the top-35 - all because NASCAR set the rules and arbitrarily selected the first five races as the cut-off. Even if the #84 somehow got a WIN they would be stuck in the GOGH group, and that doesn't seem right to me. There should be a reward for turning around the performance of a lower-end team, shouldn't there? Right now it is set up to bury those teams that struggle out of the gate, and I don't think that is entirely fair. I think I have a reasonable solution that would work for everyone.
Make the top-35 rule apply to only the five most recent races.
Why would this be an improvement? I have several reasons.
- The race around the top-35 would last all season.
After last September's Richmond race, there were ten races remaining in the season, yet only one team had a realistic chance of moving from outside the top-35 to inside the top-35, because the #10 team (in 37th at the time), was 201 points out of 35th. Even the MOST dramatic improvement possible would have made it highly unlikely they could have gotten inside the top-35 in ten races. Keeping the top-35 to the five most recent races would make that situation more fluid - and draw more interest (and maybe sponsors?) - to those teams in the fight.
As I said, the #84 team is currently 40th, 111 points out of 35th. After five races, that gap was only 60 points. Over the last five races, it is only 35 points. - The GOGH teams face a uniquely stressful situation and could improve more quickly.
Again, let's look at the #84. They have made five straight races. Has it effectively turned around their season? Not really, because they are still under immense pressure to make the field on speed. In the last five races, they are 34th in owners points - which would lock them into the field for next week's race at Talladega, but the over-emphasis on the first five races is hurting that team. Why not the last five instead of the first five? Why continue to hold a team down in August or September because of what they did in February?
- Teams could add cars during the season.
I'm thinking specifically of Richard Childress Racing here. They are adding a fourth car for 2009. Greg Biffle was asked if he would consider driving for that team, and his response was that he didn't see that as an option because the team would start the year outside the top-35. If you used the last five races, RCR could field a car for the final five races of 2008 in an attempt to lock it into the 2009 Daytona 500. Is there any downside to that? That would be impossible under the current set up.
- Points penalties would REALLY hurt.
If you are 1500 points clear of 35th in points, a 100-point penalty isn't going to have much of an impact. Hit a team with a 100-point penalty and make it over a five race-span, and it could make a BIG team sit through five weeks of stressful GOGH qualifying.
- The return of a the single-car team and the "little guy".
OK, this is purely theoretical, but hear me out. Right now, there is no reason for anyone to try and get into NASCAR in the middle of the season, because if you miss a couple of races all the improvement in the world isn't going to get you out of the GOGH zone. If they made a change like this it would be possible to start running mid-year and stay in the field, meaning some teams could give it a shot more realistically than they are currently able.
You could also have some teams target races like they do Daytona - one top-ten finish is worth nearly half the points you would need to be in the top-35. Why wouldn't No Fear Racing put Boris Said in the car at Infineon (which they are) and the following four races to see if they could lock in over those five races. If not, instead of being stuck for the rest of the season, they could try again at the Glen. It seems like this would open up things for more teams to compete - and even if it just SEEMED that way it would give NASCAR some of that "back to its roots"-feeling they are allegedly striving for, wouldn't it?
What would this look like if they implemented it today? Of course, I'm glad you asked. Here is the "race" for the top-35 the way things currently are.
31 - #41-Chip Ganassi Racing 644 +93 32 - #55-Michael Waltrip Racing 621 +70 33 - #77-Penske Racing 605 +54 34 - #44-Michael Waltrip Racing 567 -16 35 - #01-Dale Earnhardt Inc 554, 3 points ahead of 36th 36 - #96-Hall of Fame Racing 551, 3 points out of 35th 37 - #22-Bill Davis Racing 546 -8 38 - #70-Haas CNC Racing 542 +12 39 - #40-Ganassi Racing 514 -40 40 - #84-Red Bull Racing 443 -111
If you just took the last five races, they would look like this.
31 - #19-Gillett Evernham Motorsports 383 +49 32 - #7-Robby Gordon Motorsports 374 +40 33 - #01-Dale Eanhardt Inc 371 +37 34 - #84-Red Bull Racing Team 350 +16 35 - #44-Michael Waltrip Racing 337, 3 points ahead of 36th 36 - #22-Bill Davis Racing 334, 3 points out of 35th 37 - #41-Chip Ganassi Racing 323 -14 38 - #40-Chip Ganassi Racing 314 -20 39 - #96-Hall of Fame Racing 305 --29 40 - #10-Gillett Evernham Motorpsorts 302 -32
Obviously, the big loser in this would be Reed Sorenson's #41 team, but they are in the top-35 almost entirely because they finished fifth in the Daytona 500 - rewarding them for something that happened in ONE race two months ago instead of what they have been doing over the last SEVERAL races in the last month. That's really the way it should be for everyone.
You are about to comment because you read the title and want to say "it would be better if they dropped the rule altogether!" Good for you. You know who agrees? Everyone. You know who doesn't? NASCAR. We've been down THAT particular road, so save it. Please.
... just want to note that due to the prior comment by JJD, I will NOT be commenting on this thread, other than to say this was a very thoughtful analysis of one possible alternative to the only alternative worth talking about, which you don't want to talk about on this thread.
JJD- Wow you've got to get this blog to NASCAR somehow. You make your arguments very well and I cant find fault with them (course I just woke up and am not firing on all cylinders yet). I think this would be a fantastic compromise knowing that NASCAR wants to keep the rule. The difference in the points as they stand now v. your way is very interesting and FAR more reflective how teams are running. Good stuff man.
Seems like a great Idea to me. It would be more fair and make the race for the top 35 more interesting. I also believe it may open up some sponsorship moneys to some of the lower tier teams.
i hear you. its what have you done for me lately. plus it would give a chance to a team who might just get into a couple short track starts and good runs with the great equalizer, the cot.
I'd rather the Nextel Cup champion be decided over the entire season, but I think if you are going to have a Chase for the Nextel Cup, you should break out the twelve guys and have them scored separately, so I'm tracking the points both ways.
I also strongly advocate a NCAA football playoff, so there will be some posts about that showing up here, although I have written this blog for over a year and haven't gone there yet.
I can be reached via e-mail or AIM at jayjaydean at gmail dot com.
