1.   1. Toronto

Options: Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas

Bryan Colangelo is the man of the hour, coming off a masterful stint in Phoenix and now armed with a draft pick that should give him a major building block in developing a similar system in Toronto. That piece is now generally considered to be Italian forward Andrea Bargnani. I’m not sure that the Raptors are particularly in need of another finesse forward (Chris Bosh agrees with me, apparently), but Bargnani would be a nice fit if Colangelo is planning on building the Eastern Conference version of the Suns. Aldridge and Thomas will be the other two players mentioned at the top, but both replicate much of what Bosh brings to the table.

Andrea Bargnani: The Dirk comparison has taken hold especially since Bargnani has become associated with all the #1 pick rumors, but I think it is early for that. Dirk is most certainly a “prototype” player, in the same way that every athletic scoring wing is compared to MJ, and every lanky big man is the next KG. Bargnani has impressive footspeed and the ability to create off the dribble, but calling him the next Nowitzki might be a bit of a stretch. Bargnani certainly can shoot the ball. He is very comfortable getting his feet set and spotting up from beyond the arc, and has a silky smooth release. His biggest task will be adding strength, not necessarily so he can add a post game, but so that he can take a bit of a bump as he gets past slower, stronger defenders on the perimeter.

Sleeper Pick: Adam Morrison

If the Raptors are planning to go the way of the Suns, a big man might not be the biggest priority in this draft. The backcourt lacks an established star, and Morrison would fit in perfectly in a Phoenix-style system.

2. Chicago

Options: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas, Adam Morrison

Chicago is on the verge legitimacy for the first time since the Jordan era, and a polished post scorer is the team’s most glaring need. Luckily for Bulls fans, it looks like one will be available at #2. LaMarcus Aldridge regularly displayed an impressive array of post moves during his sophomore season at Texas, even if he didn’t get the ball as often as he should have. Aldridge seems to be a better fit than Tyrus Thomas, as Thomas does a lot of the same things that Tyson Chandler does, and probably isn’t an immediate upgrade there. If you like to look at draft history to project picks, then you probably believe Paxson will give long, hard look to Adam Morrison – even if he doesn’t fill a need.

LaMarcus Aldridge: Aldridge may have the best combination of polish and upside of any American in the draft. He is probably on the plus side of 6’10, moves very well for his size, and has added a significant amount of bulk since arriving at Texas. At the same time, Aldridge utilizes almost every post move in the book. He has a Rasheed Wallace-style turnaround fadeaway, a solid jump hook, and a deadeye midrange jumper. He even broke out a mini-sky hook a couple of times during Big XII play. The issue with Aldridge is whether he can bring it every night. At times, (see games against Kansas and Oklahoma) he looked like the clear-cut top selection in this draft. At others (see both of Texas’ games against Joseph Jones and Texas A&M), he looked soft and uninterested. Aldridge certainly didn’t get the ball enough from his guards, but also appears to be lacking a bit of that killer instinct.

3. Charlotte

Options: Adam Morrison, Rudy ####, Tyrus Thomas

Charlotte’s plans took both backward and forward steps in 2006, as Raymond Felton emerged as one of the league’s top point guards, but frontcourt prospects Emeka Okafor and Sean May both spent most of the year on the sideline. The Bobcats probably aren’t in a position to pick for need just yet, but a formidable wing scorer would look very nice next to Felton. There are several qualified prospects here, but Morrison appears to be a very nice fit in between Felton and Gerald Wallace in the starting lineup. There have been rumblings about Bernie Bickerstaff liking Rudy ####, but we heard some negative things about Raymond Felton coming out of the Bobcats’ camp before the draft last year. I’m sure Charlotte will seriously consider Tyrus Thomas as well...

Adam Morrison: People will talk about his lack of footspeed right until opening night, when Morrison will command double-teams from the opening tap. He is containable with good team defense, but impossible to defend in one-on-one situations. He is likely somewhat of a defensive liability, but that is what Gerald Wallace is for, and the Bobcats appear to be developing into a team that wants to outscore you, not lock you up. If Charlotte does get lucky enough to end up with Morrison, this could be a turning point for the franchise.

4. Portland

Options: Tyrus Thomas, Brandon Roy, Rudy ####

This could be the first really pivotal moment in the draft, as Portland needs both a big man and a wing, and they should have an option for both here. The Trailblazers would take the local Adam Morrison in a heartbeat if he is there. If not, management has a tough decision to make between Tyrus Thomas and another area product, Brandon Roy. On one hand, Portland has made a habit out of drafting raw, high-upside prospects like Thomas. Losing Joel Pryzbilla over the summer would leave Nate McMillan with very little in the frontcourt, and Thomas could emerge as a star within three years. On the other hand, the really young youth movement hasn’t amounted to much thus far. Roy could step in nicely next to Martell Webster, and give McMillan the kind of immediate impact player he probably needs to save his job.

Tyrus Thomas: Plenty of folks seem to be down on Thomas these days, and I somewhat agree if we are talking about him going #1 overall. This is a kid that might need a couple of years before he is ready to make a significant contribution. While Thomas has some face the basket skill and may end up spending some time on the perimeter on the offensive end, let it be known he is very much a big man. He’s too skinny to be an effective one-on-one defender on the blocks, and doesn’t have a low post offensive game beyond garbage and fast break type situations. It is hard for me to see a player that can’t effectively defend or score on his projected position going #1 overall. However, Thomas still has more upside than any player in the draft. He is freakishly athletic, freakishly long, is improving at a freakish rate, and may not be done growing yet. He projects to be a phenomenal shot blocker at the next level, and most importantly, has a great feel for the game and the mindset to keep improving. Thomas has the feel of a player that Portland select. 

5. Atlanta

Options: Brandon Roy, Marcus Williams, Randy Foye

This is the toughest pick in lottery to project. The top two prospects left on the board are wings, and Atlanta is already overloaded there. The Hawks are in need of a point guard and a center, but are unlikely to find a logical fit at this spot. Billy Knight has enough assets to pull off a trade here and my guess is that if Brandon Roy falls out of the top 4, teams will be interested in moving up to get him. This is why I have projected Roy at number five, instead of a point guard. Of course, Atlanta’s system doesn’t require a natural point guard on the offensive end. Much of Marcus Williams’ creative, pass-first ability could go to waste, making Randy Foye a potential fit here. Still, I don’t think either player is worth a top 5 pick. Roy has more ballhandling ability than your average 2-guard, and could be a good fit in Atlanta. Could Billy Knight do the unthinkable and take another wing?

Brandon Roy: Brandon Roy is the highest riser of 2006, and should become the poster boy for staying in school after an unsuccessful attempt out of high school and three injury-marred years as an underclassman. Roy’s emergence was made possible by the graduation of Nate Robinson, and some serious work on his outside shot. Now that defenders have to be honest, Roy is very difficult to deal with off the dribble. If the help does manage to cut him off, he almost never fails to find the open man. “Smooth” is the word that defines his game. Roy may not have star upside (probably just an average athlete at the NBA level) but he is pretty darn close, and he is probably the safest pick amongst the consensus top six. The only thing to worry about is that bothersome knee…

Sleeper Pick: Patrick O’Bryant

The Hawks need a center, and Patrick O’Bryant is well on his way to emerging as the top true center prospect in the draft. His stock is already on the rise, and will only continue to move higher as O’Bryant starts beating up other big men in workouts. This is highest O’Bryant could conceivably go, but don’t be surprised if he ends up getting some serious consideration here.

6.  Minnesota

Options: Rudy ####, Patrick O’Bryant, Marcus Williams

The Timberwolves are trying to trade this pick, as Kevin McHale isn’t going to get that winning season he needs to save his job with his current roster. Unfortunately, a series of bumbling moves leaves Minnesota with several mediocre players tied to horrible long-term contracts, and little overall flexibility. For this reason, my guess is that McHale ends up keeping the pick. The Timberwolves could use a little bit of everything around Kevin Garnett, but the critical need for the past two seasons has been a space eater/####er/garbage guy for the frontcourt to complement KG’s perimeter tendencies. However, Rudy #### is the top talent left on this board, and certainly has the ability to put fans back in the seats. He could fit in with Ricky Davis and Rashad McCants to form a respectable wing rotation. Local product Patrick O’Bryant would be a nice story, and will end up getting considered by teams in this range. Minnesota could attempt to resign Marcus Banks at the point guard spot, but will have to give Marcus Williams a look.

Rudy ####: Somewhat of an enigma the past two seasons, nobody can deny Rudy ####’s immense athletic gifts. He stands 6’9, but plays even larger with his formidable wingspan and electric athleticism. His outside shot is fundamentally sound, and the sky is the limit when it comes to his defensive potential. If a team comes away with convinced that his feel for the game isn’t an issue, #### could easily be picked higher than this. That is the issue here, however. #### tends to fall in love with his outside shot and has a tendency to float. When he takes his game closer to the basket and focuses on putting the ball on the floor, he looks every bit a #1 pick. If Rudy #### chooses to play a Shawn Marion-style game, stardom awaits. If he continues to envision himself as a Tracy McGrady clone, the mid-lotto is probably where he belongs. It should be mentioned that there were stretches this winter where #### did play up to his potential. It isn’t as if he has underachieved for his entire career, and he did play on a team loaded with veteran talent at the wing. My thought has always been that #### would have been a much more natural fit at the PF slot at the college level, if it wasn’t for Connecticut’s loaded stable of big men.

General Comments:

 - While everybody is talking about how there isn't a star at the top of the lottery and that this draft is accordingly weak, I think this viewpoint needs a bit of clarification. While none of the "top six" picks appears to be in that "can't miss" category, I think there certainly is a star within that group. I would be shocked if none of the six became a star, it just isn't clear who really sticks out at the moment. It could be the sixth taken just as easily as the first. Think about that when considering the situations of Atlanta and Minnesota.

 - While I mention a clear-cut top six, don't think for a minute that this group is set in stone. There are two players that really stick out as having the chance to move up in the top half of the lottery. The first would be Patrick O'Bryant, and the second would be Sergio Rodriguez.

O'Bryant has all the attributes of your classic center prospet. He is huge and not even close to done growing, nimble enough to run the floor and keep up on a fast-paced team, improving at a rapid rate, and already a very formidable defensive player. He is clearly a lottery pick at the moment, and could be a high lottery pick by the time draft night rolls around.

We give Andrea Bargnani tons of credit for contributing at Europe's highest levels, but Sergio Rodriguez is turning into a legitimate star in the ACB League as the draft process is beginning. He has been considered a potential high lottery pick for years now, and this is a draft with no premier point guard prospect. His agent says he needs a first round promise to stay in. Expect him to get that promise, and expect it to come higher than what people are projecting at the moment.

Check back early this week, as I project the rest of the lottery.